Baseline comparative analysis and review of election forensics: Application to Ghana’s 2012 and 2020 presidential elections
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Date
2023
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Heliyon
Abstract
Many allegations have been levelled against the electoral process of many countries across
the world by most opposition leaders, especially when they lose a presidential election e.g.
Ghana in 2012 and 2020. Therefore, the need to apply election forensic techniques to the
certified election results data of valid votes count to statistically verify if some suspected or
possible anomalies and irregularities exist in the voting pattern. This paper seeks to provide
a comprehensive review of election forensics techniques and make a comparative analysis of
Benford’s Second-order test of conformity (using the first two digits) and Hartigans’ dip test of
unimodality to examine the existence of possible anomalies and irregularities in the 2012 and
2020 presidential elections held in Ghana. The findings of the two tests suggest that the electoral
process produced possible anomalous data in the 2012 presidential election results (with an
overall 16.67% suspected anomalies), whilst possible non-anomalous data was produced in the
2020 presidential election results (with an overall 0% suspected anomaly) of valid votes count.
Therefore, the study recommends that for better statistical data analysis on election anomaly
detection, Benford’s test of conformity and Hartigans’ dip test of unimodality should serve as
baseline tests (initial screening tools), highlighting areas that may require further investigation or
more rigorous analysis and progressively dig deeper into the application of finite mixture fraud
models and machine learning techniques. In spite of the promising results Benford’s Law, dip
test, machine learning algorithms, and network analysis have produced in detecting irregularities
in election data, real-world applications remain challenging, particularly when dealing with
complex and evolving forms of fraud. Therefore, there is the need for continuous research and
innovation to improve the accuracy and effectiveness of these methods and promote transparency
and accountability in democratic societies
Description
Research Article
Keywords
Election forensics, Hartigans’ dip test of unimodality, Benford’s second order test of conformity, First-two digits, Ghana