Department of Statistics
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Item Determinants of under-fve mortality in informal settlements in Nairobi, Kenya from 2002 to 2018(BMC Public Health, 2024) Iddi, S.; Akeyo, D.; Sanya, R.E.; Wamukoya, M.; Asiki, G.Background Childhood mortality persists as a significant public health challenge in low and middle-income countries and is uneven within countries, with poor communities such as urban informal settlements bearing the highest burden. There is limited literature from urban informal settlements on the risk factors of mortality. We assessed under-five mortality and associated risk factors from the period 2002 to 2018 in Nairobi urban informal settlements. Methods We used secondary data from the Nairobi Urban Health and Demographic Surveillance System (NUH DSS), a longitudinal surveillance platform that routinely collects individual and household-level data in two informal settlements (Viwandani and Korogocho) in Nairobi, Kenya. We used Kaplan-Meier curves to estimate overall survival and the Cox proportional hazard model with a frailty term to evaluate the impact of risk factors on survival time. Results Overall under-five survival rate was 96.8% and this improved from 82.6% (2002-2006) to 95% (2007-2012) and 98.4% (2012-2018). There was a reduced risk of mortality among children who had BCG vaccination, those born to a married mother or a mother not engaging in any income-generating activity (both from 2007 to 2011), children from singleton pregnancy, children born in Viwandani slum and ethnicity of the child. Conclusion Under-five mortality is still high in urban informal settlements. Targeted public health interventions such as vaccinations and interventions empowering women such as single mothers, those with multiple pregnancies, and more impoverished slums are needed to further reduce under-five mortality in urban informal settlements.Item Does the environmental Phillips curve hypothesis hold within the Ghanaian context?(Scientific African, 2024) Addison, R.; Akutcha, E.; Debrah, G.This study examines the relationship between environmental quality and unemployment in Ghana using annual data spanning the period from 1990 to 2019. It also assesses the impact of gender-segregated unemployment rate on environmental quality. The study employed the Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) error correction model to estimate the relationship among the variables. In addition, the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and the Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) estimation procedures were employed to check for robustness of the ARDL results. Findings indicate a positive effect of total unemployment rate on environmental quality in Ghana in the long-run and also in the short-run. In the case of the gender-segregated unemployment, the findings reveal that in both short-run and long-run, a rise in female unemployment causes a deterioration in environmental quality in Ghana. The results also validated the Environmental Phillips Curve (EPC) hypothesis in the case of male unemployment. Thus, given that there is no general pattern in the findings, the study concludes that the Environmental Phillips Curve (EPC) hypothesis does not hold within the Ghanaian context.Item Enhancing corporate bankruptcy prediction via a hybrid genetic algorithm and domain adaptation learning architecture.(Expert Systems With Applications., 2024-08-15) Narh,A.T.; Nortey,N.N.E.; Adzri,P.E.; Sarkodie,O.R.In the contemporary business landscape, accurately evaluating a company’s financial health is essential for stakeholders to mitigate risks and avert bankruptcy. This study presents an innovative approach to improving business bankruptcy prediction through the hybrid integration of Domain Adaptation Learning (DAL) and Genetic Algorithm (GA) techniques. The hybrid model harnesses DAL to address distributional changes in the real world scenarios and utilize GA’s proficiency in feature selection. Six machine learning models are rigorously evaluated against the proposed hybrid model: Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Logistic Regression (LR), Gradient Boosting (GB), k-Nearest Neighbours (k-NN), and Stacking Ensemble (SE). Our hybrid model performs well on imbalanced target datasets using the Area Under the Precision–Recall Curve metric: 0.93 (RF), 0.93 (SVM), 0.89 (LR), 0.91 (GB), 0.88 (k-NN), and 0.92 (SE). These findings highlight the model’s ability to overcome the limitations of traditional approaches, offering a more reliable predictive framework for stakeholders to make informed decisions and proactively manage financial stability. Future research directions may explore the applicability of this hybrid model across different industries and the integration of additional techniques to further enhance its performance.Item Assessment of Neonatal Mortality and Associated Hospital-Related Factors in Healthcare Facilities Within Sunyani and Sunyani West Municipal Assemblies in Bono Region, Ghana(Health Services Insights, 2024) Tawiah, K.; Asosega, K.A.; Iddi, S.; et al.Objectives: Ghana’s quest to reduce neonatal mortality, in hospital facilities and communities, continues to be a nightmare. The pursuit of achieving healthy lives and well-being for neonates as enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal three lingered in challenging hospital facilities and communities. Notwithstanding that, there have been increasing efforts in that direction. This study examines the contributing factors that hinder the fight against neonatal mortality in all hospital facilities in the Sunyani and Sunyani West Municipal Assemblies in Bono Region, Ghana. Methods: The study utilized neonatal mortality data consisting of neonatal deaths, structural facility related variables, medical human resources, types of hospital facilities and natal care. The data was collected longitudinally from 2014 to 2019. These variables were analysed using the negative binomial hurdle regression (NBH) model to determine factors that contribute to this menace at the facility level. Cause-specific deaths were obtained to determine the leading causes of neonatal deaths within health facilities in the two municipal assemblies. Results: The study established that the leading causes of neonatal mortality in these districts are birth asphyxia (46%), premature birth (33%), neonatal sepsis (11%) and neonatal jaundice (7%). The NBH showed that neonatal mortality in hospital facilities depend on the num ber of incubators, monitoring equipment, hand washing facilities, CPAPb machines, radiant warmers, physiotherapy machines, midwives, paediatric doctors and paediatric nurses in the hospital facility. Conclusions: Early management of neonatal sepsis, birth asphyxia, premature birth and neonatal infections is required to reduce neonatal deaths. The government and all stakeholders in the health sector should provide all hospital facilities with the essential equipment and the medical human resources necessary to eradicate the menace. This will make the realization of Sustainable Development Goal three, which calls for healthy lives and well-being for all, a reality.Item Does the Inverse Farm Size-Productivity Hypothesis Hold Beyond Five Hectares? Evidence from Ghana(Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2022) Debrah, G.; Adanu, K.We contribute to the inverse farm size-productivity puzzle (IR) literature by examining the relationship using a unique data set from southern Ghana that covers farms between 5 and 70 ha. The study uses an instrumental variable (IV) for land size to mitigate some effects of measurement error in land size. The inverse relationship between farm size and farm productivity is upheld when ordinary least squares estimators (OLS) are applied but becomes insignificant, although still negative in the IV estimation. The results show that measurement error in land size attenuate the IR. While some studies found the IR to flatten and then become positive, this study finds that in Ghana, the IR only flattens.Item Mediation effects of individuals’ sexual quality of life on the relationship between sexual quality of life of partners and its predictors: a path analysis(Journal of Public Health and Development, 2022) Alidu, H.; Nortey, E.N.N.; Adedia, D.; et al.Sexual function and the sexual quality of life of an individual could be influenced by several factors. Sexual dysfunction could affect the sexual quality of life of the individual and, possibly have an impact on their partners. Treatments that improve sexual function among individuals tend to improve the sexual quality of life of their partners. This study explored the mechanism by which an individual’s sexual quality of life mediates the relationship between factors, such as age, sexual dysfunction, perception of IELT, and the partner’s sexual quality of life. Path analysis was used to determine if this effect was via direct or indirect mechanisms. Outpatients attending the Maamobi and Tema General Hospitals, as well as their partners, recruited for this study. A total of 130 males and their partners, as well as 116 females and their partners, were recruited. The GRISS was used to evaluate the sexual function of participants. The sexual quality of life questionnaire was used to evaluate participants and their partners. Ageing in both sexes had a direct effect on the sexual quality of life of their partners. Ageing also indirectly compromises the sexual quality of life of male partners. Impotence indirectly affects the sexual quality of life of female partners. Vaginismus indirectly affected the sexual quality of life of their male partners. Among the male participants, avoidance of sexual activity had both direct and indirect effects on the sexual quality of life of their female partners. avoidance of sexual activity by female participants only had an indirect effect on the sexual quality of life of the male partners. Aging in both sexes directly compromises the sexual quality of life of their partners.Item Group lending with covariate risk(Journal of Development Economics, 2022) Ahlin, C.; Debrah, G.Group-based lending with joint liability has been a major tool microfinance institutions (‘‘MFIs’’) have employed to improve lending feasibility. The related theoretical literature typically assumes borrowers face independent risk. This paper examines how covariate risk affects the usefulness of joint liability lending in the hidden-information setting of Stiglitz and Weiss (1981) and Ghatak (2000). In a benchmark setting where all agents face the same degree of covariate risk, greater correlation renders group lending less effective; this is because the effective rate of joint liability is reduced when borrowers are more likely to fail together. We focus on a setting where extensive and intensive margins are distinguished: some agents face independent risk while others face correlated risk. We find that an intermediate prevalence of correlated risk can lead to lower outreach than both a low and a high prevalence. Thus, reaching a market with mixed covariate risk profiles, e.g. farmers and micro-entrepreneurs, can be harder than reaching markets with a single profile of either kind. Assuming limited ability of lenders to use information on borrower correlation, we find that higher outreach is often achievable by separately servicing correlated and non-correlated borrowers. This can help explain the existence of specialized institutions such as agricultural banks versus standard microenterprise-focused MFIs.Item Government Stability in the Remittance-Economic Growth Link in Ghana(International Journal of Applied Economics, Finance and Accounting, 2022) Adu-Darko, E.; Aidoo, E.K.Several studies have revealed that many factors affect economic growth. Remittances and government stability have been identified as two of these factors. Over the years, remittances have become a major source of financial inflows, especially in Ghana. This study examines the role of government stability in the remittance-economic growth relationship in Ghana. Annual time series data from 1984 to 2020 was extracted from the World Development Indicators (WDI) and the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG). An ARDL model with a level structural break was estimated. The results show, first, that a cointegration relationship exists among the variables in the presence of structural breaks. Secondly, remittances and government stability have a significant, positive long-run impact on economic growth, while there is no significant impact of GDPPC and government stability on remittances was found. Thirdly, in the short run, remittances and government stability are not significantly associated with growth. The role of remittances in the economic growth of Ghana important. When remittances increase, economic growth will likewise increase. Government policy-making should create an enabling environment to channel remittances into productive uses, including entrepreneurial ventures. Remittances must be received through proper channels for easy accountability, and government stability should be complemented by good governance to further foster economic growth.Item Current Realities of Wilms Tumor Burden and Therapy in Ghana(Journal of Pediatric Surgery, 2024) Kontchou, N-A.T.; Amankwah, E.; Seidu, I.; et al.Background: Between 2005 and 2014, Ghana's Wilms tumor (WT) 2-year disease-free survival of 44% trailed behind that of high-income countries. This study aimed to uncover social determinants of health leading to preventable WT death in Ghana. Methods: WT patient records (2014e2022) at Korle-Bu Teaching Hospital (KBTH; Ghana) were reviewed retrospectively. Demographics, clinical course, tumor characteristics, and survival were evaluated using t-tests, Pearson Chi-square, and multivariate Cox logistic regression. Results: Of 127 patients identified, 65 were female. Median age was 44 months [IQR 25e66]. Forty-eight patients (38%) presented with distant metastasis (75% lung, 25% liver), which associated with hypo albuminemia (p ¼ 0.009), caregiver informal employment (p ¼ 0.04), and larger tumors (p ¼ 0.002). Despite neoadjuvant chemotherapy shrinking 84% of tumors, larger initial size associated with incom plete resection (p ¼ 0.046). Of 110 nephrectomies, 31 patients had residual disease, negatively impacting survival (p ¼ 2.7 10 5 ). Twenty-two patients (17%) abandoned treatment (45% before nephrectomy; 55% after nephrectomy), with seven patients ultimately lost to follow-up (LTFU). Decedents represented 43% of stage IV patients compared to 28% in other stages. Event-free survival (EFS) was 60% at 4 years with overall survival (OS) at 67%. Conclusions: Although Ghana's WT survival has improved, informal employment and distance from KBTH predisposed patients to delayed referral, greater tumor burden, hypoalbuminemia, and lower survival. Type of Study: Prognosis Study. Level of Evidence: IIItem Foreign aid-Economic Growth Nexus in Africa: Does Financial Development Matter?(International Economic Journal, 2022) Appiah-Otoo, I.; Appiah, I.K.; Acheampong, A.O.; et al.This study explored the role of financial development in foreign aid (measured by agriculture, humanitarian, health, economic infrastructure and services, and education aid) and economic growth relationships for 37 African countries spanning the 2002–2018 period. Using the instrumental variable generalized method of moments model, our findings indicated that while foreign aid impedes Africa’s growth, financial development spurs economic growth. The conditional effect analysis showed that financial development conditions foreign aid to spur economic growth. The country-specific analysis further showed that foreign aid has a higher growth elasticity in countries with relatively better financial systems, such as Mauritius, South Africa, Gabon, Tunisia, and Botswana, whilst the growth elasticity of aid is smaller in countries with a relatively weak financial system, such as Malawi, Guinea-Bissau, Sierra Leone, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. The study recommended the need for for policymakers in Africa to implement innovative ways to improve domestic revenue mobilization. The study also recommended that policymakers in Africa should create an enabling environment that will enhance the development of Africa’s financial system to mitigate the adverse effect of aid on economic growth.