Effect of Climate Change on Maize Supply in Ghana, 1970-2002
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Date
2003-08
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University of Ghana
Abstract
Societies which depend upon agriculture for their livelihood may face the perils of climate
change (Global Wanning), especially developing countries in the tropics and subtropics
where some crops are already near their maximum temperature tolerance and where dry land
and non-irrigated agriculture predominate. Yields will tend to decrease with even nominal
amounts of climate change. Agriculture in Ghana is largely rain fed, therefore changes in
climate in the form of changes in rainfall for example, may affect agricultural supply
especially crops, maize inclusive. This study examines the effects of climate change, using
rainfall and temperature as climate variables, on maize supply in Ghana. Annual time series
data on temperature, rainfall, and output of maize, prices o f maize, rice, cassava and fertiliser
covering the period 1970-2002 are used. The error correction model and Granger Causality
Test were employed in the analysis. The results of the study show that climate change in the
form of change in rainfall exerts a statistically significant effect on supply of maize. The
study further confirms that rainfall is essential during crop growth, and the critical major
period o f rainfall is the best time to plant to avoid water stress and pest infestation. The study
closes with some policy recommendations and suggestions for future research.
Description
Thesis(MPhil)- Uinversity of Ghana