Electoral Performance of Incumbent Governments in Ghana’s Fourth Republic

Abstract

This thesis examines the electoral performance of incumbent governments in Ghana’s Fourth Republic. Using a combination of survey data, qualitative data collection technique analyzed through content, the study investigates the key factors that influenced voters’ decisions to either re-elect or reject the incumbent government. The analysis of voter decision factors across the 1996, 2004, 2012, and 2020 elections highlights evolving priorities in electoral outcomes. In 1996, economic management was the primary factor, followed by education, healthcare, infrastructure, and social welfare. In the 2004, healthcare, particularly the National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS), became a central issue, alongside education and economic management. In 2012, education, healthcare, and economic management remained key, with infrastructure development gaining importance. By 2020, education (notably the Free Senior High School initiative), economic management, healthcare, and infrastructure were crucial, reflecting the electorate's priorities in a post-pandemic context. The findings also indicate that voting behavior reveals strong but divided support for the incumbent government before the 2020 elections, with a majority supporting the government, a significant portion opposing it, and a notable number of undecided voters. Voter performance played a significant role, with most prioritizing the government’s track record in their decisions. Voter sentiment showed a mix of support and calls for change, with economic issues, corruption, and governance concerns driving dissatisfaction and influencing the demand for effective leadership. Additionally, in the 2016 elections, poor economic performance, ineffective educational policies, inadequate infrastructure development, and corruption were primary factors in voters’ decisions to vote out incumbent governments.