Forecasting Mortality Rates and Modelling Longevity Risk of SSNIT Pensioners

Abstract

Predicting mortality trend and hedging of longevity risk in recent times has gained attention at a period when life expectancies are increasing unexpectedly. Life insurance companies may make more profit owing to the advancements in technology, hygiene, and medical procedures which leads to decreasing liabilities emanating from payment of reducing death benefit payments. However, longevity improvements may result in losses for annuity insurance schemes such as pensions. The study investigated the existence or otherwise of longevity risk in Ghana and the financial approaches/insurance SSNIT ought to adopt for pensioners who outlive the 15-year guaranteed period. The Lee-Carter and Cairns-Blake-Dowd models were used to forecast mortality patterns through secondary source information from SSNIT covering 1991 to 2017. Results of the study show that mortality rates are on the decline whiles life expectancy, on the other hand, is rising. The study recommended that, since there is an improvement in longevity, SSNIT can hedge individual longevity risk by obtaining a life annuity from life insurance companies. The study further called for prudent financial management and operational efficiency that will ensure long term solvency.