Forecasting progress: analyzing the trajectory of under-fve child mortality for Ghana, Niger, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone towards SDG3 using ARIMA time series model

Abstract

This study employs the AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to forecast under-fve mortal ity rates in Ghana, Niger, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone for the years 2030 and 2031. Using World Bank Indicators data from 1967 to 2021, the study evaluates these countries’ progress toward achieving Sustainable Development Goal 3 (SDG 3), which aims to reduce under-fve mortality to less than 25 deaths per 1,000 live births by 2030. The objec tive is to provide data-driven insights into future mortality trends, supporting policymakers and healthcare profes sionals in designing targeted interventions to accelerate progress. The results reveal distinct mortality patterns among the four countries. Ghana, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone exhibit a consistent decline in under-fve mortality, while Niger shows a non-continuous decreasing trend, indicating potential stagnation or reversal. Projections for 2030 estimate mortality rates of 30.5 per 1,000 live births in Ghana, 109.5 in Niger, 84.5 in Nigeria, and 64.3 in Sierra Leone. By 2031, these rates are expected to reach 28.9 per 1,000 live births in Ghana, 110.4 in Niger, 81.7 in Nigeria, and 59.8 in Sierra Leone. The fndings indicate that Ghana is on track to meet SDG 3, provided that sustained and enhanced healthcare interventions are implemented. However, Nigeria, Niger, and Sierra Leone remain of-target, requiring signifcant reductions in mortality rates to meet the SDG 3 benchmark. These projections ofer valuable evidence for policymakers, emphasizing the need for urgent and data-driven strategies to combat under-fve mortality in these nations