The Roles of Education, Contraception and Desired Fertility on Liberia’s Fertility

Abstract

After about a decade of civil war, Liberia still has a fertility similar to other countries who have not had such similar experiences. The civil war was expected to lead to a decrease in fertility given the expected increased usage of contraceptives and decrease in the desire for children. So, the question about the role of education, contraception and desired fertility was asked. To answer this question, four main questions were asked. First, whose education is more significant in reducing fertility, husband or wife? Second, does usage of contraceptive lead to low fertility? Also, does the desire for more children or another child lead to having higher fertility? Lastly, does the woman’s education (wife’s) have only a direct effect, only an indirect effect or both direct and indirect effects? Unfortunately, there was no available data that was collected during or a few years after the civil war. Trends for Liberia from the 1970s to the 2010s have shown that education and contraceptive usage shows an upward trajectory while the average ideal number of children (proxy for desired fertility) shows a downward trajectory. Using three waves of the Liberia Demographic and Health Survey data along with a Poisson regression analysis and the Structural Equation Model, this study found; First, for 1986 wave, husband’s education, rather than wife’s education, was more significant in explaining fertility. In the 2007 wave however, wife’s education, rather than husband’s education, was more significant in explaining her own fertility. In the 2013 wave, both wife’s education and husband’s education were found to be significant in explaining fertility. Secondly, usage of modern contraceptives has a significant positive effect on fertility for the three waves while usage of traditional methods had significant positive effect on fertility for only in 2013. This finding is consistent with empirical works that have found pacing of birth to be the reason for increase demand for contraceptives. Overall, contraception, like wife’s education, was significant in explaining fertility in Liberia. Also, desired fertility had a significant positive effect on fertility. While education, especially wife’s education, has contributed to the fertility reduction in Liberia, contraceptive usage and desired fertility have played no role in Liberia’s fertility reduction. Age of a woman, age at first birth, child deaths and urban residence have also contributed in explaining fertility differential in Liberia. Lastly, wife’s education has both direct and indirect effects on fertility, which means the effect of wife’s education on fertility is partially mediated by contraception and desired fertility. Whereas in 1986 the indirect effect is positive, in 2007 and 2013 the indirect effect is negative.