Department of Statistics
Permanent URI for this collection
Browse
Recent Submissions
Item Assessment of Neonatal Mortality and Associated Hospital-Related Factors in Healthcare Facilities Within Sunyani and Sunyani West Municipal Assemblies in Bono Region, Ghana(Health Services Insights, 2024) Tawiah, K.; Asosega, K.A.; Iddi, S.; et al.Objectives: Ghana’s quest to reduce neonatal mortality, in hospital facilities and communities, continues to be a nightmare. The pursuit of achieving healthy lives and well-being for neonates as enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal three lingered in challenging hospital facilities and communities. Notwithstanding that, there have been increasing efforts in that direction. This study examines the contributing factors that hinder the fight against neonatal mortality in all hospital facilities in the Sunyani and Sunyani West Municipal Assemblies in Bono Region, Ghana. Methods: The study utilized neonatal mortality data consisting of neonatal deaths, structural facility related variables, medical human resources, types of hospital facilities and natal care. The data was collected longitudinally from 2014 to 2019. These variables were analysed using the negative binomial hurdle regression (NBH) model to determine factors that contribute to this menace at the facility level. Cause-specific deaths were obtained to determine the leading causes of neonatal deaths within health facilities in the two municipal assemblies. Results: The study established that the leading causes of neonatal mortality in these districts are birth asphyxia (46%), premature birth (33%), neonatal sepsis (11%) and neonatal jaundice (7%). The NBH showed that neonatal mortality in hospital facilities depend on the num ber of incubators, monitoring equipment, hand washing facilities, CPAPb machines, radiant warmers, physiotherapy machines, midwives, paediatric doctors and paediatric nurses in the hospital facility. Conclusions: Early management of neonatal sepsis, birth asphyxia, premature birth and neonatal infections is required to reduce neonatal deaths. The government and all stakeholders in the health sector should provide all hospital facilities with the essential equipment and the medical human resources necessary to eradicate the menace. This will make the realization of Sustainable Development Goal three, which calls for healthy lives and well-being for all, a reality.Item Does the Inverse Farm Size-Productivity Hypothesis Hold Beyond Five Hectares? Evidence from Ghana(Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2022) Debrah, G.; Adanu, K.We contribute to the inverse farm size-productivity puzzle (IR) literature by examining the relationship using a unique data set from southern Ghana that covers farms between 5 and 70 ha. The study uses an instrumental variable (IV) for land size to mitigate some effects of measurement error in land size. The inverse relationship between farm size and farm productivity is upheld when ordinary least squares estimators (OLS) are applied but becomes insignificant, although still negative in the IV estimation. The results show that measurement error in land size attenuate the IR. While some studies found the IR to flatten and then become positive, this study finds that in Ghana, the IR only flattens.Item Mediation effects of individuals’ sexual quality of life on the relationship between sexual quality of life of partners and its predictors: a path analysis(Journal of Public Health and Development, 2022) Alidu, H.; Nortey, E.N.N.; Adedia, D.; et al.Sexual function and the sexual quality of life of an individual could be influenced by several factors. Sexual dysfunction could affect the sexual quality of life of the individual and, possibly have an impact on their partners. Treatments that improve sexual function among individuals tend to improve the sexual quality of life of their partners. This study explored the mechanism by which an individual’s sexual quality of life mediates the relationship between factors, such as age, sexual dysfunction, perception of IELT, and the partner’s sexual quality of life. Path analysis was used to determine if this effect was via direct or indirect mechanisms. Outpatients attending the Maamobi and Tema General Hospitals, as well as their partners, recruited for this study. A total of 130 males and their partners, as well as 116 females and their partners, were recruited. The GRISS was used to evaluate the sexual function of participants. The sexual quality of life questionnaire was used to evaluate participants and their partners. Ageing in both sexes had a direct effect on the sexual quality of life of their partners. Ageing also indirectly compromises the sexual quality of life of male partners. Impotence indirectly affects the sexual quality of life of female partners. Vaginismus indirectly affected the sexual quality of life of their male partners. Among the male participants, avoidance of sexual activity had both direct and indirect effects on the sexual quality of life of their female partners. avoidance of sexual activity by female participants only had an indirect effect on the sexual quality of life of the male partners. Aging in both sexes directly compromises the sexual quality of life of their partners.Item Group lending with covariate risk(Journal of Development Economics, 2022) Ahlin, C.; Debrah, G.Group-based lending with joint liability has been a major tool microfinance institutions (‘‘MFIs’’) have employed to improve lending feasibility. The related theoretical literature typically assumes borrowers face independent risk. This paper examines how covariate risk affects the usefulness of joint liability lending in the hidden-information setting of Stiglitz and Weiss (1981) and Ghatak (2000). In a benchmark setting where all agents face the same degree of covariate risk, greater correlation renders group lending less effective; this is because the effective rate of joint liability is reduced when borrowers are more likely to fail together. We focus on a setting where extensive and intensive margins are distinguished: some agents face independent risk while others face correlated risk. We find that an intermediate prevalence of correlated risk can lead to lower outreach than both a low and a high prevalence. Thus, reaching a market with mixed covariate risk profiles, e.g. farmers and micro-entrepreneurs, can be harder than reaching markets with a single profile of either kind. Assuming limited ability of lenders to use information on borrower correlation, we find that higher outreach is often achievable by separately servicing correlated and non-correlated borrowers. This can help explain the existence of specialized institutions such as agricultural banks versus standard microenterprise-focused MFIs.Item Government Stability in the Remittance-Economic Growth Link in Ghana(International Journal of Applied Economics, Finance and Accounting, 2022) Adu-Darko, E.; Aidoo, E.K.Several studies have revealed that many factors affect economic growth. Remittances and government stability have been identified as two of these factors. Over the years, remittances have become a major source of financial inflows, especially in Ghana. This study examines the role of government stability in the remittance-economic growth relationship in Ghana. Annual time series data from 1984 to 2020 was extracted from the World Development Indicators (WDI) and the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG). An ARDL model with a level structural break was estimated. The results show, first, that a cointegration relationship exists among the variables in the presence of structural breaks. Secondly, remittances and government stability have a significant, positive long-run impact on economic growth, while there is no significant impact of GDPPC and government stability on remittances was found. Thirdly, in the short run, remittances and government stability are not significantly associated with growth. The role of remittances in the economic growth of Ghana important. When remittances increase, economic growth will likewise increase. Government policy-making should create an enabling environment to channel remittances into productive uses, including entrepreneurial ventures. Remittances must be received through proper channels for easy accountability, and government stability should be complemented by good governance to further foster economic growth.Item Current Realities of Wilms Tumor Burden and Therapy in Ghana(Journal of Pediatric Surgery, 2024) Kontchou, N-A.T.; Amankwah, E.; Seidu, I.; et al.Background: Between 2005 and 2014, Ghana's Wilms tumor (WT) 2-year disease-free survival of 44% trailed behind that of high-income countries. This study aimed to uncover social determinants of health leading to preventable WT death in Ghana. Methods: WT patient records (2014e2022) at Korle-Bu Teaching Hospital (KBTH; Ghana) were reviewed retrospectively. Demographics, clinical course, tumor characteristics, and survival were evaluated using t-tests, Pearson Chi-square, and multivariate Cox logistic regression. Results: Of 127 patients identified, 65 were female. Median age was 44 months [IQR 25e66]. Forty-eight patients (38%) presented with distant metastasis (75% lung, 25% liver), which associated with hypo albuminemia (p ¼ 0.009), caregiver informal employment (p ¼ 0.04), and larger tumors (p ¼ 0.002). Despite neoadjuvant chemotherapy shrinking 84% of tumors, larger initial size associated with incom plete resection (p ¼ 0.046). Of 110 nephrectomies, 31 patients had residual disease, negatively impacting survival (p ¼ 2.7 10 5 ). Twenty-two patients (17%) abandoned treatment (45% before nephrectomy; 55% after nephrectomy), with seven patients ultimately lost to follow-up (LTFU). Decedents represented 43% of stage IV patients compared to 28% in other stages. Event-free survival (EFS) was 60% at 4 years with overall survival (OS) at 67%. Conclusions: Although Ghana's WT survival has improved, informal employment and distance from KBTH predisposed patients to delayed referral, greater tumor burden, hypoalbuminemia, and lower survival. Type of Study: Prognosis Study. Level of Evidence: IIItem Foreign aid-Economic Growth Nexus in Africa: Does Financial Development Matter?(International Economic Journal, 2022) Appiah-Otoo, I.; Appiah, I.K.; Acheampong, A.O.; et al.This study explored the role of financial development in foreign aid (measured by agriculture, humanitarian, health, economic infrastructure and services, and education aid) and economic growth relationships for 37 African countries spanning the 2002–2018 period. Using the instrumental variable generalized method of moments model, our findings indicated that while foreign aid impedes Africa’s growth, financial development spurs economic growth. The conditional effect analysis showed that financial development conditions foreign aid to spur economic growth. The country-specific analysis further showed that foreign aid has a higher growth elasticity in countries with relatively better financial systems, such as Mauritius, South Africa, Gabon, Tunisia, and Botswana, whilst the growth elasticity of aid is smaller in countries with a relatively weak financial system, such as Malawi, Guinea-Bissau, Sierra Leone, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. The study recommended the need for for policymakers in Africa to implement innovative ways to improve domestic revenue mobilization. The study also recommended that policymakers in Africa should create an enabling environment that will enhance the development of Africa’s financial system to mitigate the adverse effect of aid on economic growth.Item Characterization of Healthy Housing in Africa: Method, Profiles, and Determinants(Journal of Urban Health, 2022) Iddi, S.; Muindi, K.; Gitau, H.; Mberu, B.Housing is a key social determinant of health, with implications for both physical and mental health. The measurement of healthy housing and studies characterizing the same in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are uncommon. This study described a methodological approach employed in the assessment and characterization of healthy housing in SSA using the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data for 15 countries and explored healthy housing determinants using a multiple survey-weighted logistic regression analysis. For all countries, we demonstrated that the healthy housing index developed using factor analysis reasonably satisfied with both reliability and validity tests and can therefore be used to describe the distribution of healthy housing across different groups and in understanding the linkage with individual health outcomes. We infer from the results that unhealthy housing remains quite high in most SSA countries. Having a male head of household was associated with decreased odds of healthy housing in Burkina Faso (OR = 0.80, CI = 0.68–0.95), Cameroon (OR=0.65, CI=0.57, 0.76), Malawi (OR=0.70, CI=0.64–0.78), and Senegal (OR=0.62, CI=0.51– 0.74). Further, increasing household size was associated with reducing odds of healthy housing in Kenya (OR=0.53, CI=0.44–0.65), Namibia (OR=0.34, CI=0.24–0.48), Nigeria (OR=0.57, CI=0.46–0.71), and Uganda (OR=0.79, CI=0.67–0.94). Across In all countries, household wealth was a strong deterrent of healthy housing, with middle and rich households having higher odds of residing in healthy homes compared to poor households. Odds ratios ranged from 3.63 (CI = 2.96–4.44) for households in the middle wealth group in the DRC to 2812.2 (CI = 1634.8–4837.7) in Namibia’s wealthiest households. For other factors, the analysis also showed variation across countries. Our findings provide timely insights for the implementation of housing policies across SSA countries, drawing attention to aspects of housing that would promote occupant health and wellbeing. Beyond the contribution to the measurement of healthy housing in SSA, our paper highlights key policy and program issues that need further investigation in the search for pathways to addressing the healthy housing demand across most SSA countries. This has become critical amid the COVID-19 pandemic, where access to healthy housing is pivotal in its control.Item Drivers of consumer food choices of multinational corporations’ products over local foods in Ghana: a maximum difference scaling study(Globalization and Health, 2024) Nyarko, E.; Bartelmeß, T.Introduction The fundamental transformation of food systems and retail environments in low-income countries is influencing consumers’ food choices and dietary habits in unfavourable directions through the consumption of highly processed, energy-dense foods, predominantly manufactured by multinational food corporations. This study aims to identify the principal factors driving consumers’ preference for multinational foods over local foods in the urban Accra region of Ghana. Method This cross-sectional survey involving a random sample of 200 consumers conducted in March/April 2023 using interviewer-administered questionnaires employed a maximum difference scaling approach to investigate the drivers of urban Ghanaian consumer food choices for multinational food corporations’ products over local foods. The maximum difference scaling modelling analysis utilized in this study identifies the primary drivers of multinational food corporations’ product preferences and the associated trade-offs. Result The study discovered that food quality and safe packaging, perceived healthiness, taste and flavour, and nutritional value were the most significant factors driving consumer preference for multinational food corporations’ products over local foods in Ghana. The criterion food quality and safe packaging had the significantly highest utility than all other attributes in terms of consumer preference for products/meals from multinational food corporations over local foods. Conclusion The results of this study provide significant contributions to the existing body of research, as previous studies have not identified these factors as primary drivers of multinational food products. Public health authorities and nutritionists can use the study’s findings to implement targeted quality assurance measures in local markets and to address the drivers in health education campaigns.Item Utilizing A Multi-Stage Transition Model For Analysing Child Stunting In Two Urban Slum Settlements Of Nairobi: A Longitudinal Analysis, 2011-2014(PLOS ONE, 2024) Oduro, M.S.; Iddi, S.; Asiedu, L.; et al.Introduction Stunting is common among children in many low- and middle-income countries, particularly in rural and urban slum settings. Few studies have described child stunting transitions and the associated factors in urban slum settlements. We describe transitions between stunting and states and associated factors among children living in Nairobi slum settlements. Methods This study used data collected between 2010 and 2014 from the Nairobi Urban and Demographic Surveillance System (NUHDSS) and a vaccination study conducted within the surveillance system. A subset of 692 children aged 0 to 3 years, with complete anthropometric data, and household socio-demographic data was used for the analysis. Height-for-age Z-scores (HAZ) was used to define stunting: normal (HAZ ⿽ 1), marginally stunted (-2 ⿽ HAZ). < -1), moderately stunted (-3; HAZ < -2), and severely stunted (HAZ < -3). Transitions from one stunting level to another and in the reverse direction were computed. The associations between explanatory factors and the transitions between four child stunting states were modeled using a continuous-time multi-state model. Results We observed that 48%, 39%, 41%, and 52% of children remained in the normal, marginally stunted, moderately stunted, and severely stunted states, respectively. About 29% transitioned from normal to marginally stunted state, 15% to a moderately stunted state, and 8% to the severely stunted state. Also, 8%, 12%, and 29% back transitioned from severely stunted, moderately stunted, and marginally stunted states to the normal state,respectively. The shared common factors associated with all transitions to a more severe state include: male gender, ethnicity (only for mild and severe transition states), child’s age, and household food insecurity. In Korogocho, children whose parents were married and those whose mothers had attained primary or post-primary education were associated with a transition from a mild state into a moderately stunted state. Children who were breastfed exclusively were less likely to transition from moderate to severe stunting state. Conclusion These findings reveal a high burden of stunting and transitions in urban slums. Context-specific interventions targeting the groups of children identified by the socio-demographic factors are needed. Improving food security and exclusive breastfeeding could potentially reduce stunting in the slums.Item SARS‑CoV‑2 incidence monitoring and statistical estimation of the basic and time‑varying reproduction number at the early onset of the pandemic in 45 sub‑Saharan African countries(BMC Public Health, 2024) Oduro, M.S.; Arhin‑Donkor, S.; Asiedu, L.; Kadengye, D.T.; Iddi, S.The world battled to defeat a novel coronavirus 2019 (SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19), a respiratory illness that is transmitted from person to person through contacts with droplets from infected persons. Despite efforts to disseminate preventable messages and adoption of mitigation strategies by governments and the World Health Organization (WHO), transmission spread globally. An accurate assessment of the transmissibility of the coronavirus remained a public health priority for many countries across the world to fight this pandemic, especially at the early onset. In this paper, we estimated the transmission potential of COVID-19 across 45 countries in sub-Saharan Africa using three approaches, namely, R0 based on (i) an exponential growth model (ii) maximum likelihood (ML) estimation and (iii) a time-varying basic reproduction number at the early onset of the pandemic. Using data from March 14, 2020, to May 10, 2020, sub-Saharan African countries were still grappling with COVID-19 at that point in the pandemic. The region’s basic reproduction number ( R0 ) was 1.89 (95% CI: 1.767 to 2.026) using the growth model and 1.513 (95% CI: 1.491 to 1.535) with the maximum likelihood method, indicating that, on average, infected individuals transmitted the virus to less than two secondary persons. Several countries, including Sudan ( R0 : 2.03), Ghana ( R0 : 1.87), and Somalia ( R0 : 1.85), exhibited high transmission rates. These findings highlighted the need for continued vigilance and the implementation of effective control measures to combat the pandemic in the region. It is anticipated that the findings in this study would not only function as a historical record of reproduction numbers during the COVID-19 pandemic in African countries, but can serve as a blueprint for addressing future pandemics of a similar nature.Item Analysis of Investment Returns as Markov Chain Random Walk(International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences, 2024) Mettle, F.O.; Agyekum, L.; Aidoo, E.K.; Dowuona, C.O.N.The main objective of this paper is to analyse investment returns using a stochastic model and inform investors about the best stock market to invest in. To this effect, a Markov chain random walk model was successfully developed and implemented on 450 monthly market returns data spanning from January 1976 to December 2020 for Canada, India, Mexico, South Africa, and Switzerland obtained from the Federal Reserves of the Bank of St. Louis. Limiting state probabilities and six-month moving crush probabilities were estimated for each country, and these were used to assess the performance of the markets. Te Mexican market was observed to have the lowest probabilities for all the negative states, while the Indian market recorded the largest limiting probabilities. In the case of positive states, the Mexican market recorded the highest limiting probabilities, while the Indian market recorded the lowest limiting probabilities. The results showed that the Mexican market performed better than the others over the study period, whilst India performed poorly. These findings provide crucial information for market regulators and investors in setting regulations and decision-making in investment.Item Scoping review of HIV-related intersectional stigma among sexual and gender minorities in sub-Saharan Africa(BMJ Open, 2024) Dada, D.; Abu-Ba’are, G.R; Apreku, A.; et al.Objectives Sexual and gender minority (SGM) populations in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are disproportionately impacted by HIV and often face multiple HIV-related stigmas. Addressing these stigmas could reduce SGM HIV vulnerability but little is known about how the stigmas operate and intersect. Intersectional stigma offers a lens for understanding the experiences of stigmatised populations and refers to the synergistic negative health effects of various systems of oppression on individuals with multiple stigmatised identities, behaviours or conditions. This review aims to (1) assess how often and in what ways an intersectional lens is applied in HIV-related stigma research on SGM populations in SSA and (2) understand how intersectional stigma impacts HIV risk in these populations. Design Scoping review following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis extension for Scoping Reviews. Data sources Public health and regional databases were searched in 2020 and 2022. Eligibility criteria Articles in French and English on HIV related stigma and HIV outcomes among men who have sex with men, women who have sex with women and/or transgender individuals in SSA. Data extraction and synthesis Articles were screened and extracted twice and categorised by use of an intersectional approach. Study designs and stigma types were described quantitatively and findings on intersectional stigma were thematically analysed. Results Of 173 articles on HIV-related stigma among SGM in SSA included in this review, 21 articles (12%) applied an intersectional lens. The most common intersectional stigmas investigated were HIV and same-sex attraction/ behaviour stigma and HIV, same-sex attraction/behaviour and gender non-conformity stigma. Intersectional stigma drivers, facilitators and manifestations were identified across individual, interpersonal, institutional and societal socioecological levels. Intersectional stigma impacts HIV vulnerability by reducing HIV prevention and treatment service uptake, worsening mental health and increasing exposure to HIV risk factors. Conclusion Intersectional approaches are gaining traction in stigma research among SGM in SSA. Future research should prioritise quantitative and mixed methods investigations, diverse populations and intervention evaluation.Item Beyond the green revolution: reviving time-tested resilient practices for enhanced food security in Ghana’s upper west region through traditional Authorities(Cogent Food & Agriculture, 2024) Dompae, F.; Beyuo, A.; Domanban, P.D.This paper investigates the effects of locally enacted bylaws governing Autonomous resilience Practices (ARP) on the food security of a sample of 700 smallholder farmers in Ghana’s Upper West Region. The research is grounded in the context of the Green Revolution’s inability to address food insecurity for large populations in Africa. The sequential mixed-methods design employed in the study first identified eight prevalent coping strategies for food insecurity among farmers. A pairwise matrix ranking method was used for this task. Subsequently, Poisson regression models were employed to assess how often farmers resorted to these coping strategies when bylaws aimed at protecting the local ecology were enforced. The results reveal highly significant and inverse relationships between increased frequency of implementing local bylaws on ARP and farmers’ frequency of resorting to the eight identified coping strategies for food security. The results underscore the significance of grassroots-level solutions to the shortcomings of the current food system, which produces surplus food but fails to adequately nourish a substantial proportion of the global populationItem FaceNet recognition algorithm subject to multiple constraints: Assessment of the performance(Scientific African, 2024) Mensah, J.A.; Appati, J.K.; Boateng, E.K.A.; Ocran, E.; Asiedu, L.Literature has it that the performance of most face recognition algorithms still decline in multiple constrained environments (Occlusions and Expressions), despite the achieved successes of deep learning face recognition algorithms. Using expression variant test face images syn thetically occluded at 30% and 40% rates, the study evaluated the performance of FaceNet deep learning model for face recognition under the aforementioned constraints and when three (3) statistical multiple imputation methods (Multivariable Imputation using Chain Equations (MICE), MissForest and Regularized Expectation Maximization (RegEM)) are adopted for occlu sion recovery. Results of the study showed improved recognition rates of the study algorithm when the imputation-based recovered faces were used for recognition compared with using their multiple constrained counterparts. However, test faces reconstructed with the MissForest imputation method were more accurately recognized using the FaceNet deep learning algorithm. Furthermore, the study demonstrated that some simple augmentation schemes sufficed to further enhance the performance of the FaceNet model. Specifically, the FaceNet algorithms gave the highest average recognition rates (85.19% and 79.5% for 30% and 40% occlusion levels respectively) under augmentation scheme IV (slight rotations, horizontal flipping, shearing, brightness adjustments, and stretching) using MissForest as the de-occlusion mechanism. The study also found that, no disparity existed in its performance with the choice of either Support Vector Machines (SVM) or City Block (CB) for classification under augmentation scheme IV. The study recommends using the MissForest imputation method in dealing with moderately high occluded test faces with varying expressions to enhance the performance of the FaceNet face recognition model.Item Time series based road traffic accidents forecasting via SARIMA and Facebook Prophet model with potential changepoints(Heliyon, 2023) Agyemang, E.F.; Mensah, J.A.; Ocran, E.; Opoku, E.; Nortey, E.N.N.Road traffic accident (RTA) is a critical global public health concern, particularly in developing countries. Analyzing past fatalities and predicting future trends is vital for the development of road safety policies and regulations. The main objective of this study is to assess the effectiveness of univariate Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and Facebook (FB) Prophet models, with potential change points, in handling time-series road accident data involving seasonal patterns in contrast to other statistical methods employed by key governmental agencies such as Ghana’s Motor Transport and Traffic Unit (MTTU). The aforementioned models underwent training with monthly RTA data spanning from 2013 to 2018. Their predictive accuracies were then evaluated using the test set, comprising monthly RTA data from 2019. The study employed the Box-Jenkins method on the training set, yielding the development of various tentative time series models to effectively capture the patterns in the monthly RTA data. 𝑆𝐴𝑅𝐼𝑀𝐴 (0, 1, 1) × (1, 0, 0)12 was found to be the suitable model for forecasting RTAs with a log-likelihood value of −266.28, AIC value of 538.56, AICc value of 538.92, BIC value of 545.35. The findings disclosed that the 𝑆𝐴𝑅𝐼𝑀𝐴 (0, 1, 1) × (1, 0, 0)12 model developed outperforms FB-Prophet with a forecast accuracy of 93.1025% as clearly depicted by the model’s MAPE of 6.8975% and a Theil U1 statistic of 0.0376 compared to the FB-Prophet model’s respective forecasted accuracy and Theil U1 statistic of 84.3569% and 0.1071. A Ljung Box test on the residuals of the estimated 𝑆𝐴𝑅𝐼𝑀𝐴 (0, 1, 1) × (1, 0, 0)12 model revealed that they are independent and free from auto/serial correlation. A Box-Pierce test for larger lags also revealed that the proposed model is adequate for forecasting. Due to the high forecast accuracy of the proposed SARIMA model, the study recommends the use of the proposed SARIMA model in the analysis of road traffic accidents in GhanaItem Shrinkage Methods for Estimating the Shape Parameter of the Generalized Pareto Distribution(Journal of Applied Mathematics, 2023) Pels, W.A.; Adebanji, A.O.; Twumasi-Ankrah, S.; Minkah, R.The generalized Pareto distribution is one of the most important distributions in statistics of extremes as it has wide applications in fields such as finance, insurance, and hydrology. This study proposes two new methods for estimating the shape parameter of the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). The proposed methods use the shrinkage principle to adapt the existing empirical Bayesian with data-based prior and the likelihood moment method to obtain two estimators. The performance of the proposed estimators is compared with the existing estimators (i.e., maximum likelihood, likelihood moment estimators, etc.) for the shape parameter of the generalized Pareto distribution in a simulation study. The results show that the proposed estimators perform better for small to moderate number of exceedances in estimating shape parameter of the light-tailed distributions and competitive when estimating heavy-tailed distributions. The proposed estimators are illustrated with practical datasets from climate and insurance studies.Item On multiple imputation-based reconstruction of degraded faces and recognition in multiple constrained environments(Scientific African, 2023) Mensah, J.A.; Ocran, E.; Asiedu, L.Recognition of degraded frontal face images acquired under occlusion constraints remain challenging despite the plethora of reconstruction mechanisms. Though recent works have lever aged on some imputation mechanisms in this regard, their robustness in multiple constrained environments may not be guaranteed and may be affected by the choice of pre-processing mechanism. This paper proposes enhancement mechanisms that augment or complement the use of three (3) multiple imputation mechanisms for facial reconstruction in the presence of multiple constraints (10% and 20% occlusions and varying facial expressions). Specifically, we propose the use of a Discrete Cosine Transform-based (DCT) denoising or a Discrete Wavelet based denoising following Histogram Equalization (HE-DWT) of the reconstructed face images prior to recognition. Experimental results showed that the proposed augmented enhancements improved significantly the recognition rates (90.63% & 91.15% and 86.98% & 85.94% for DCT and HE-DWT at 10% and 20% occlusion levels respectively for Missforest de-occluded face images) as compared with DWT in recognizing degraded frontal face images under moderately low levels of occlusions and varying expressions.Item Best-worst scaling in studying the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on health professionals in Ghana(Model Assisted Statistics and Applications, 2023) Nyarko, E.; Arku, D.; Duah, G.In this study, we utilized a best-worst scaling experiment design to assess the potential factors associated with depression, anxiety, and stress among health professionals following the experience of the COVID-19 pandemic. The maximum difference model was performed to analyze the potential risk factors associated with depression, anxiety, and stress. As a case study, a total of 300 health professionals in Ghana were included in the survey. The majority, 112 (68.7%) male health professionals and 97 (70.8%) female health professionals reported that they had encountered suspected COVID-19 patients. 83 (50.9%) of the male health professionals and 76 (55.5%) of the female health professionals reported that they had encountered confirmed COVID-19 patients. A considerable proportion of the males 59 (36.2%) and females 57 (41.6%) health professionals reported coming into direct contact with COVID-19 lab specimens. The findings indicated that a high proportion of health professionals encountered suspected or confirmed COVID-19 patients, while a considerable proportion had direct contact with COVID-19 lab specimens leading to psychological problems. Risk factors such as contact with confirmed COVID-19 patients, the relentless spread of the coronavirus, death of patients and colleagues, shortage of medical protective equipment, direct contact with COVID-19 lab specimens, and the permanent threat of being infected should be given special attention, and necessary psychological intervention provided for health professionals endorsing these risk factors. Improving the supply of medical protective equipment to meet occupational protection practices, sufficient rest, and improving the vaccination of the population might help safeguard health professionals from depression, anxiety, and stress. Our results provide insight into policy discussions on the mental health of health professionals and interventions that are essential to enhance psychological resilience.Item Education, skills, and duration of unemployment in Ghana(Cogent Economics & Finance, 2023) Yirenkyi, E.G.; Debrah, G.; Adanu, K.; Atitsogbui, E.bstract: The unmatched growth in available jobs, given the rising youth popula tion, is a major concern for policymakers in sub-Saharan African countries (SSAs), particularly Ghana. The weakness in the link between education and the needed skill by the industry, has been labelled as the cause of rising unemployment and prolonged unemployment duration in Ghana. This paper presents new evidence on the effect of education and skill—language, computer and numeracy skills—on unemployment duration in Ghana using the Skill Towards Employment and Productivity (STEP) skill dataset collected by the World Bank in 2013. The study employs Cox’s Proportional Hazard Model to examine the effect of education, language, computer and numeracy skill on unemployment duration. We found that education reduces the duration of unemployment in general. However, the effect is higher for exiting salaried work compared to self-employed jobs. Proficiency in computer, English or Ewe reduces the duration of unemployment. In particular, we observe that individuals highly skilled in computer use are 34.4% more likely to exit unemployment compared to those without computer skills. Interestingly, the effect of computer skills is through channels other than formal education.