Department of Statistics

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    Drivers of consumer food choices of multinational corporations’ products over local foods in Ghana: a maximum difference scaling study
    (Globalization and Health, 2024) Nyarko, E.; Bartelmeß, T.
    Introduction The fundamental transformation of food systems and retail environments in low-income countries is influencing consumers’ food choices and dietary habits in unfavourable directions through the consumption of highly processed, energy-dense foods, predominantly manufactured by multinational food corporations. This study aims to identify the principal factors driving consumers’ preference for multinational foods over local foods in the urban Accra region of Ghana. Method This cross-sectional survey involving a random sample of 200 consumers conducted in March/April 2023 using interviewer-administered questionnaires employed a maximum difference scaling approach to investigate the drivers of urban Ghanaian consumer food choices for multinational food corporations’ products over local foods. The maximum difference scaling modelling analysis utilized in this study identifies the primary drivers of multinational food corporations’ product preferences and the associated trade-offs. Result The study discovered that food quality and safe packaging, perceived healthiness, taste and flavour, and nutritional value were the most significant factors driving consumer preference for multinational food corporations’ products over local foods in Ghana. The criterion food quality and safe packaging had the significantly highest utility than all other attributes in terms of consumer preference for products/meals from multinational food corporations over local foods. Conclusion The results of this study provide significant contributions to the existing body of research, as previous studies have not identified these factors as primary drivers of multinational food products. Public health authorities and nutritionists can use the study’s findings to implement targeted quality assurance measures in local markets and to address the drivers in health education campaigns.
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    Beyond the green revolution: reviving time-tested resilient practices for enhanced food security in Ghana’s upper west region through traditional Authorities
    (Cogent Food & Agriculture, 2024) Dompae, F.; Beyuo, A.; Domanban, P.D.
    This paper investigates the effects of locally enacted bylaws governing Autonomous resilience Practices (ARP) on the food security of a sample of 700 smallholder farmers in Ghana’s Upper West Region. The research is grounded in the context of the Green Revolution’s inability to address food insecurity for large populations in Africa. The sequential mixed-methods design employed in the study first identified eight prevalent coping strategies for food insecurity among farmers. A pairwise matrix ranking method was used for this task. Subsequently, Poisson regression models were employed to assess how often farmers resorted to these coping strategies when bylaws aimed at protecting the local ecology were enforced. The results reveal highly significant and inverse relationships between increased frequency of implementing local bylaws on ARP and farmers’ frequency of resorting to the eight identified coping strategies for food security. The results underscore the significance of grassroots-level solutions to the shortcomings of the current food system, which produces surplus food but fails to adequately nourish a substantial proportion of the global population
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    Time series based road traffic accidents forecasting via SARIMA and Facebook Prophet model with potential changepoints
    (Heliyon, 2023) Agyemang, E.F.; Mensah, J.A.; Ocran, E.; Opoku, E.; Nortey, E.N.N.
    Road traffic accident (RTA) is a critical global public health concern, particularly in developing countries. Analyzing past fatalities and predicting future trends is vital for the development of road safety policies and regulations. The main objective of this study is to assess the effectiveness of univariate Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and Facebook (FB) Prophet models, with potential change points, in handling time-series road accident data involving seasonal patterns in contrast to other statistical methods employed by key governmental agencies such as Ghana’s Motor Transport and Traffic Unit (MTTU). The aforementioned models underwent training with monthly RTA data spanning from 2013 to 2018. Their predictive accuracies were then evaluated using the test set, comprising monthly RTA data from 2019. The study employed the Box-Jenkins method on the training set, yielding the development of various tentative time series models to effectively capture the patterns in the monthly RTA data. 𝑆𝐴𝑅𝐼𝑀𝐴 (0, 1, 1) × (1, 0, 0)12 was found to be the suitable model for forecasting RTAs with a log-likelihood value of −266.28, AIC value of 538.56, AICc value of 538.92, BIC value of 545.35. The findings disclosed that the 𝑆𝐴𝑅𝐼𝑀𝐴 (0, 1, 1) × (1, 0, 0)12 model developed outperforms FB-Prophet with a forecast accuracy of 93.1025% as clearly depicted by the model’s MAPE of 6.8975% and a Theil U1 statistic of 0.0376 compared to the FB-Prophet model’s respective forecasted accuracy and Theil U1 statistic of 84.3569% and 0.1071. A Ljung Box test on the residuals of the estimated 𝑆𝐴𝑅𝐼𝑀𝐴 (0, 1, 1) × (1, 0, 0)12 model revealed that they are independent and free from auto/serial correlation. A Box-Pierce test for larger lags also revealed that the proposed model is adequate for forecasting. Due to the high forecast accuracy of the proposed SARIMA model, the study recommends the use of the proposed SARIMA model in the analysis of road traffic accidents in Ghana
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    Education, skills, and duration of unemployment in Ghana
    (Cogent Economics & Finance, 2023) Yirenkyi, E.G.; Debrah, G.; Adanu, K.; Atitsogbui, E.
    bstract: The unmatched growth in available jobs, given the rising youth popula tion, is a major concern for policymakers in sub-Saharan African countries (SSAs), particularly Ghana. The weakness in the link between education and the needed skill by the industry, has been labelled as the cause of rising unemployment and prolonged unemployment duration in Ghana. This paper presents new evidence on the effect of education and skill—language, computer and numeracy skills—on unemployment duration in Ghana using the Skill Towards Employment and Productivity (STEP) skill dataset collected by the World Bank in 2013. The study employs Cox’s Proportional Hazard Model to examine the effect of education, language, computer and numeracy skill on unemployment duration. We found that education reduces the duration of unemployment in general. However, the effect is higher for exiting salaried work compared to self-employed jobs. Proficiency in computer, English or Ewe reduces the duration of unemployment. In particular, we observe that individuals highly skilled in computer use are 34.4% more likely to exit unemployment compared to those without computer skills. Interestingly, the effect of computer skills is through channels other than formal education.
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    Baseline comparative analysis and review of election forensics: Application to Ghana’s 2012 and 2020 presidential elections
    (Heliyon, 2023) Agyemang, E.F.; Nortey, E.N.N.; Minkah, R.; Asah-Asante, K.
    Many allegations have been levelled against the electoral process of many countries across the world by most opposition leaders, especially when they lose a presidential election e.g. Ghana in 2012 and 2020. Therefore, the need to apply election forensic techniques to the certified election results data of valid votes count to statistically verify if some suspected or possible anomalies and irregularities exist in the voting pattern. This paper seeks to provide a comprehensive review of election forensics techniques and make a comparative analysis of Benford’s Second-order test of conformity (using the first two digits) and Hartigans’ dip test of unimodality to examine the existence of possible anomalies and irregularities in the 2012 and 2020 presidential elections held in Ghana. The findings of the two tests suggest that the electoral process produced possible anomalous data in the 2012 presidential election results (with an overall 16.67% suspected anomalies), whilst possible non-anomalous data was produced in the 2020 presidential election results (with an overall 0% suspected anomaly) of valid votes count. Therefore, the study recommends that for better statistical data analysis on election anomaly detection, Benford’s test of conformity and Hartigans’ dip test of unimodality should serve as baseline tests (initial screening tools), highlighting areas that may require further investigation or more rigorous analysis and progressively dig deeper into the application of finite mixture fraud models and machine learning techniques. In spite of the promising results Benford’s Law, dip test, machine learning algorithms, and network analysis have produced in detecting irregularities in election data, real-world applications remain challenging, particularly when dealing with complex and evolving forms of fraud. Therefore, there is the need for continuous research and innovation to improve the accuracy and effectiveness of these methods and promote transparency and accountability in democratic societies
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    Perceived antimicrobial dispensing practices in medicine outlets in Ghana: A maximum difference experiment design
    (PLOS ONE, 2023) Nyarko, E.; Akoto, F.M.; Doku-Amponsah, K.
    Introduction Antimicrobials are consumed among patients globally, but in developing and middle-income countries, these drugs can be obtained without a prescription from pharmacies and licensed drug stores due to inadequate regulation in the pharmaceutical sector. This study aimed to assess antimicrobial dispensing practices in medicine sales outlets (i.e., pharmacies and licensed drug stores) to provide quantitative evidence for policy discussions to enhance patient safety and care quality in Ghana’s pharmaceutical industry. Method The data for this study were obtained from a cross-sectional survey conducted in the Greater Accra region between July and August 2022. The survey was conducted through interviewer-administered questionnaires, and 200 staff members from medicine sales out lets were randomly selected using a two-stage cluster and random sampling technique. The maximum difference experiment model, rooted in random utility theory, was used to analyze their antimicrobial dispensing practices. Result We found that medicine sales outlet staffs were highly concerned about following the drug act and not dispensing antimicrobials without a prescription, and usually refer a patient to get a prescription from a doctor if the patient has complications (like high fever, generalized malaise, fatigue as symptoms, sinusitis). Stronger concerns were also observed for medi cine outlet staff not dispensing antimicrobials without a prescription if the patient is pediatric or geriatric with a severe infection. They also evaluated patients and dispensed antimicrobi als based on symptoms, not their age or gender. However, they tended not to dispense anti biotics if the patient had a mild fever and requested it without a prescription Conclusion Our results provide insight into the need for a national surveillance system for monitoring antimicrobial prescribing and dispensing practices at medicine sales outlets. Therefore, the selection of antimicrobials for treating infectious diseases may be informed by evidence based antimicrobial prescribing and dispensing surveillance data and will help policymakers to know the pattern of commonly consumed antimicrobials in the medicine sales outlets.
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    The effect of health financing reforms on incidence and management of childhood infections in Ghana: a matching difference in differences impact evaluation
    (BMC Public Health, 2022) Odjidja, E.N.; Ansah‑Akrofi, R.; Iradukunda, A.; Kwanin, C.; Saha, M.
    Abstract Introduction: In 2003, Ghana abolished direct out of pockets payments and implemented health financing reforms including the national health insurance scheme in 2004. Treatment of childhood infections is a key component of services covered under this scheme, yet, outcomes on incidence and treatment of these infections after introducing these reforms have not been covered in evaluation studies. This study fills this gap by assessing the impact on the reforms on the two most dominant childhood infections; fever (malaria) and diarrhoea. Methods: Nigeria was used as the control country with pre-intervention period of 1990 and 2003 and 1993 and 1998 in Ghana. Post-intervention period was 2008 and 2014 in Ghana and 2008 and 2018 in Nigeria. Data was acquired from demographic health surveys in both countries and propensity score matching was calculated based on background socioeconomic covariates. Following matching, difference in difference analysis was conducted to estimate average treatment on the treated effects. All analysis were conducted in STATA (psmatch2, psgraph and pstest) and statistical significance was considered when p-value ≤ 0.05. Results: After matching, it was determined that health reforms significantly increased general medical care for children with diarrhoea (25 percentage points) and fever (40 percentage points). Also for those receiving care specifically in government managed facilities for diarrhoea (14 percentage points) and fever (24 percentage points). Conclusions: Introduction of health financing reforms in Ghana had positive effects on childhood infections (malaria and diarrhoea).
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    Application of Markov Chain Techniques for Selecting Efficient Financial Stocks for Investment Portfolio Construction
    (Journal of Applied Mathematics, 2022) Kallah-Dagadu, G.; Apatu, V.; Mettle, F. O.; Arku, D.; Debrah, G.
    In this paper, we apply Markov chain techniques to select the best financial stocks listed on the Ghana Stock Exchange based on the mean recurrent times and steady-state distribution for investment and portfolio construction. Weekly stock prices from Ghana Stock Exchange spanning January 2017 to December 2020 was used for the study. A three-state Markov chain was used to estimate the transition matrix, long-run probabilities, and mean recurrent times for stock price movements from one state to another. Generally, the results revealed that the long-run distribution of the stock prices showed that the constant state recorded the highest probabilities as compared to the point loss and point gain states. However, the results showed that the mean recurrent time to the point gain state ranges from three weeks to thirty-five weeks approximately. Finally, Standard Chartered Bank, GCB, Ecobank, and Cal Bank emerged as the top best performing stocks with respect to the mean recurrent times and steady-state distribution, and therefore, these equities should be considered when constructing asset portfolios for higher returns.
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    Geospatial analysis of determinants of neonatal mortality in Ghana
    (BMC PUBLIC HEALTH, 2021) Dwomoh, D.
    Background: Ghana did not meet the Millennium Development Goal 4 of reducing child mortality by two-thirds and may not meet SDG (2030). There is a need to direct scarce resources to mitigate the impact of the most important risk factors influencing high neonatal deaths. This study applied both spatial and non-spatial regression models to explore the differential impact of environmental, maternal, and child associated risk factors on neonatal deaths in Ghana. Methods: The study relied on data from the Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys (GDHS) and the Ghana Maternal Health Survey (GMHS) conducted between 1998 and 2017 among 49,908 women of reproductive age and 31,367 children under five (GDHS-1998 = 3298, GDHS-2003 = 3844, GDHS-2008 = 2992, GDHS-2014 = 5884, GMHS- 2017 = 15,349). Spatial Autoregressive Models that account for spatial autocorrelation in the data at the cluster-level and non-spatial statistical models with appropriate sampling weight adjustment were used to study factors associated with neonatal deaths, and a p-value less than 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: Population density, multiple births, smaller household sizes, high parity, and low birth weight significantly increased the risk of neonatal deaths over the years. Among mothers who had multiple births, the risk of having neonatal deaths was approximately four times as high as the risk of neonatal deaths among mothers who had only single birth [aRR = 3.42, 95% CI: 1.63–7.17, p < 0.05]. Neonates who were perceived by their mothers to be small were at a higher risk of neonatal death compared to very large neonates [aRR = 2.08, 95% CI: 1.19–3.63, p < 0.05]. A unit increase in the number of children born to a woman of reproductive age was associated with a 49% increased risk in neonatal deaths [aRR = 1.49, 95% CI: 1.30–1.69, p < 0.05]. Conclusion: Neonatal mortality in Ghana remains relatively high, and the factors that predisposed children to neonatal death were birth size that were perceived to be small, low birth weight, higher parity, and multiple births. Improving pregnant women’s nutritional patterns and providing special support to women who have multiple deliveries will reduce neonatal mortality in Ghana.
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    Time series analysis of the relationship between diarrhea in children and Rota 2 vaccine in the Fanteakwa District of the eastern region of Ghana
    (BMC Pediatrics, 2021) Avoka, J.A.; Dun-Dery, E.J.; Seidu, I.; Abou, A.N.E.; Twene, P.; Tandoh, I.O.; Dun-Dery, F.
    Background: Rotavirus is considered the main causal factor of severe gastroenteritis among infants and children globally. The association with severe rotavirus infection is mostly worse among the least developed countries, mainly due to inadequate access to medical care and poverty. This study was conducted to determine the seasonal effects in respect of diarrhea cases in children, the association between diarrhea cases and Rota2 vaccine in the Fanteakwa District of the Eastern Region of Ghana. Methods: The study compares monthly diarrhea cases against children vaccinated with Rota2 extracted from DHIM S2 spanning May 2012 to December 2017 in Fanteakwa District. A univariate association between diarrhea cases and children vaccinated with Rota 2 was conducted using the R-software version 3.4.4 with the use of forecast, tseries and TSAPred. Pearson Correlation coefficient was also computed between monthly diarrhea cases and Rota 2 as well as lagged values of Rota 2 and Diarrhea cases. Results: The study shows that February recorded the highest average number of diarrhea cases (172) over the period 2012 to 2017 with a standard deviation of 59. However, a one-way analysis of variance shows a significant difference amongst the monthly averages with an F-statistic of 0.042 and P-value of 0.064. It is observed that the correlations between each of the Rota2 doses and the lagged cases are positive, showing higher Rota2 doses a month ago ((Xt − 1),0.346 to 0.735), two months ago ((Xt − 2),0.383 to 0.746), three months ago ((Xt − 3), 0.330 to 0.737) and four months ago ((Xt − 4), 0.236 to 0.723) are associated with lower diarrhea cases. The results also show that an increase in the previous two month’s Rota2 figures by 100 is associated with a significant decrease in the currently expected diarrhea cases by approximately 36. Conclusion: Seasonal variations exist in the occurrence of diarrhea in children, with January recording the highest number of diarrhea cases (172). There is a relationship between episodes of diarrhea in children and Rota2 (pvalue = 0.064); thus, the more children are vaccinated with Rota2, the less diarrhea cases are recorded. Diarrhea cases in Fanteakwa district are generally low, except 2013 and 2016 where the cases are higher than the rest of the other years.