Browsing by Author "Asah-Asante, K."
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Item Baseline comparative analysis and review of election forensics: Application to Ghana’s 2012 and 2020 presidential elections(Heliyon, 2023) Agyemang, E.F.; Nortey, E.N.N.; Minkah, R.; Asah-Asante, K.Many allegations have been levelled against the electoral process of many countries across the world by most opposition leaders, especially when they lose a presidential election e.g. Ghana in 2012 and 2020. Therefore, the need to apply election forensic techniques to the certified election results data of valid votes count to statistically verify if some suspected or possible anomalies and irregularities exist in the voting pattern. This paper seeks to provide a comprehensive review of election forensics techniques and make a comparative analysis of Benford’s Second-order test of conformity (using the first two digits) and Hartigans’ dip test of unimodality to examine the existence of possible anomalies and irregularities in the 2012 and 2020 presidential elections held in Ghana. The findings of the two tests suggest that the electoral process produced possible anomalous data in the 2012 presidential election results (with an overall 16.67% suspected anomalies), whilst possible non-anomalous data was produced in the 2020 presidential election results (with an overall 0% suspected anomaly) of valid votes count. Therefore, the study recommends that for better statistical data analysis on election anomaly detection, Benford’s test of conformity and Hartigans’ dip test of unimodality should serve as baseline tests (initial screening tools), highlighting areas that may require further investigation or more rigorous analysis and progressively dig deeper into the application of finite mixture fraud models and machine learning techniques. In spite of the promising results Benford’s Law, dip test, machine learning algorithms, and network analysis have produced in detecting irregularities in election data, real-world applications remain challenging, particularly when dealing with complex and evolving forms of fraud. Therefore, there is the need for continuous research and innovation to improve the accuracy and effectiveness of these methods and promote transparency and accountability in democratic societiesItem Changing Forms of Political Communication and Voter Choices In Ghana’s Elections, 1992-2008(University of Ghana, 2015-07) Asah-Asante, K.; Ninsin, K. A.; Boafo-Arthur, A.; Essuman-Johnson, A.; University Of Ghana, College of Humanities, School of Social Sciences, Department of Political ScienceThe Fourth Republic has witnessed six successive elections, including those of 1992, 2000 and 2008, which have been examined in this thesis. In all these elections, the role of political communication has been crucial in determining voter choices. Accounting for the accretion of political communication is the liberalization of the media landscape in 1995, which led to the proliferation of radio and television stations as a complement to the explosion of newspapers after the restoration of democratic rule in 1992. In these elections, politicians have made effective use of messages and channels of communication to influence the choice of the electorate. Of the messages that have been used with great effect, those relating to the economy, development, corruption, slogans and gestures stand out. This study, which examined the changes in forms and sophistication of political communication and their ultimate influence on voter choices in the three elections, found out that messages on the economy were most important in influencing voter choices. Significant though were messages on development, corruption and in slogan and gesture, their impact was not phenomenal as the economy. Of least influence were messages on ethnicity, human rights, accountability and transparency. In this study, political rally which emerged as the most influential channels of communicating messages to voters during the three elections has exposed the limitations of the impact of traditional media channels in effectively communicating messages during elections. That said, the study has underscored the relevance of political communication in elections and identified the type of messages and appropriate channels available to politicians to communicate their messages. To influence more voters, politicians should seek expert advice in identifying issues of concern to the electorate and develop them into effective messages as well as select relevant channels to c