Predicting The Environmental Suitability For Anopheles Stephensi Under The Current Conditions In Ghana
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Date
2024
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
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Publisher
Scientifc Reports
Abstract
The emergence of vector-borne diseases, particularly malaria, presents a significant public health challenge
worldwide. Anophelines are predominant malaria vectors, with varied distribution and influence.
by environment and climate. This study, in Ghana, modelled environmental suitability for Anopheles
stephensi, a potential vector that may threaten advances in malaria and vector control. Understanding
this vector’s distribution and dynamics ensure effective malaria and vector control programmes
implementation. We explored the MaxEnt ecological modelling method to forecast An. stephensi’s
potential hotspots and niches. We analysed environmental and climatic variables to predict spatial
distribution and ecological niches of An. stephensi with a spatial resolution of approximately 5 km2
.
Analyzing geospatial and species occurrence data, we identified optimal environmental conditions and
important factors in its presence. The model’s most important variables guided hotspot prediction
across several ecological zones aside from urban and peri-urban regions. Considering the vector’s
complex bionomics, these areas provide varying and adaptable conditions for the vector to colonise
and establish. This is shown by the AUC= 0.943 prediction accuracy of the model, which is considered
excellent. Based on our predictions, this vector species would thrive in Greater Accra, Ashanti
Central, Upper East, Northern, and North East regions. Forecasting its environmental suitability
Ecological niche modelling supports proactive surveillance and focused malaria management
strategies. Public health officials can act to reduce the risk of malaria transmission by identifying areas
where mosquitoes may breed, which will ultimately improve health outcomes and disease control.
Description
Research Article
Keywords
Anopheles stephensi, Ghana, environmental