Explaining the unexpected COVID-19 trends and potential impact across Africa.[version 2; peer review: 2 approved]

Abstract

Official COVID-19 case counts and mortality rates across Africa are lower than had been anticipated. Research reports, however, indicate far higher exposure rates than the official counts in some countries. Particularly in Western and Central Africa, where mortality rates are disproportionately lower than the rest of the continent, this occurrence may be due to immune response adaptations resulting from (1) frequent exposure to certain pro-inflammatory pathogens, and (2) a prevalence of low-grade inflammation coupled with peculiar modifications to the immune response based on one’s immunobiography. We suggest that the two factors lead to a situation where post infection, there is a rapid ramp-up of innate immune responses, enough to induce effective defense and protection against plethora pathogens. Alongside current efforts at procuring and distributing vaccines, we draw attention to the need for work towards appreciating the impact of the apparently widespread, asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections on Africa’s populations vis a vis systemic inflammation status and long-term consequences for public health.