Return Migration, Coping Strategies and Food Security Status of Agricultural Households in Times of Flooding in Rivers State, Nigeria.

Abstract

This study assessed the dynamics of return migration, coping strategies and food security status of agricultural households in the context of escalating flooding in Rivers State, Nigeria. Data were collected from 440 respondents (246 for treatment/migrants and 194 for control/non migrants groups) on the episodes that occurred between 2011-2022 to estimate the trend and coping strategies of the migrating farmers in the study area. Data on 2022 crop production activities specifically were also collected to estimate the technical efficiency (TE) of the farms. This was used in estimating the effect of migration on farm’s TE. The farmers Household Food Insecurity Access Scale (HFIAS), farm revenue and Daily Per Capita Dietary Energy Supply were also computed and used to estimate the effect of migration on the farmers’ food security. Endogenous treatment effect models were estimated to identify the average treatment effect of migration on farm’s TE, famers’ HFIAS, farm income and food availability. A robustness check was also undertaken on these analyses using Propensity Score Matching approach. The results obtained showed that flooding episodes occurred yearly. On the average, 8 persons migrated from each household and 7 persons returned home after the floods. The average household size is 8 and this number that migrated represents the average household size, thus all household members migrate each episode. The results showed that 97.2% of the farmers have crop damage as their primary concern while 2.8% stated infrastructural damage. Early planting and harvesting are the coping strategies identified. The Translog stochastic frontier analysis revealed that migration significantly contributes to technical inefficiency, with migrants operating at 71.17% efficiency compared to 74.63% for non-migrants. Both groups have room to improve. Results from the endogenous treatment model showed a significant average treatment effect on the treated (ATT)/migrants of negative 3.85%, and a significant average treatment effect on the untreated (ATU)/non-migrants of positive 2.01%. This indicates that migration, as shown in the technical inefficiency model, negatively impacts TE, reducing it by 3.85%. Without flooding-induced migration, migrants’ TE is expected to rise by 2.01%. The result showed that migrants’ average HFIAS was 13.5 while that of the non migrants was 2.2 depicting that migrants are more food insecure when compared with the non migrants. The ATT result showed a significant mean difference of 9.17. This means that flooding problems and conversely migration, increases food insecurity. The result on average farm revenue showed the migrant’s mean farm revenue per head was ₦54509.34 while that of non-migrants was ₦183153.6 (USD 128.90 and USD 433 respectively). The ATT result showed an insignificant mean difference of negative ₦290.45 (USD 0.69). The ATU had a mean difference of positive ₦114439.5 (USD 270.54) which is significant. This means that if the migrants are not faced with flooding issues and eventual migration, their expected farm revenue will increase by ₦114439.5 per head. The result of food availability showed the migrants are only able to supply 39% of their daily energy requirement while non-migrants supply 56%. The ATT had a mean difference of 38.31% which is significant indicating that, on average, households that migrated due to flooding had higher caloric availability than they would have had if they remained in flood-prone areas. However, this improvement in caloric supply did not translate into broader food security benefits as HFIAS and farm revenue suggested otherwise. It is recommended that the government and all other stakeholders initiate and execute projects meant to curb flooding in these communities. Embarkments can be built around the river banks to stop the overflow. Also, the government can give these farmers grants and credits to assist with coping after flooding episodes. The Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security should educate farmers on farm management, crop combinations, and optimal use of fertilizer and labour for better productivity. Non-farm income generating activities is also advised for income diversification. With improved income, farmers will access more food and HFIAS will equally improve.