A predictive study of heat wave characteristics and their spatiotemporal trends in climatic zones of Nigeria

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dc.contributor.authorRagatoa, D.S.,
dc.contributor.authorOgunjobi, K.O.
dc.contributor.authorOkhimamhe, A.A.
dc.contributor.authorKlutse, N.A.B.
dc.contributor.authorLamptey, B.L.
dc.date.accessioned2022-09-01T11:50:52Z
dc.date.available2022-09-01T11:50:52Z
dc.date.issued2018
dc.descriptionResearch Articleen_US
dc.description.abstractHeat waves (HWs) have always been the silent natural disaster but the most impactful, especially concerning health and agriculture. A crucial question is being asked after the evidence has shown increases in the climate extreme events especially the temperature: how will the future climate conditions be? The present investigation examines and analyzes the future occurrence and trend of HWs in the five climatic zones of Nigeria. WRF model output extracted from CORDEX-Africa for the period 2018–2100 was compiled using maximum and minimum temperatures under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Different HW characteristics were studied: the heat wave number, the duration, the frequency, the amplitude and the magnitude exploiting four different definitions, the temperature based 90th percentile thresholds (TN90 and TX90), the Excess Heat Factor (EHF) and the Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId). The prediction under the two scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 has shown a spatial increase in the frequency and magnitude of HWs during different periods. In the 2050s, there will be a spatial increase and also an increase in the duration of HWs in the study area. The HWMId revealed Ultra extreme HWs when the Coastal zone will be having Super extreme HWs. The RCP8.5 revealed more dramatic and dreadful HWs from 2073. The trend showed significant increasing trends in the major parts of the countryen_US
dc.identifier.otherMhttps://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-018-0480-7
dc.identifier.urihttp://localhost:8080/handle/123456789/38287
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherModeling Earth Systems and Environmenten_US
dc.subjectHeat wavesen_US
dc.subjectExtreme eventsen_US
dc.subjectExcess heat factoren_US
dc.subjectHeat wave magnitude indexen_US
dc.subjectClimate changeen_US
dc.subject90th percentileen_US
dc.titleA predictive study of heat wave characteristics and their spatiotemporal trends in climatic zones of Nigeriaen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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