Spatio-temporal clustering analysis and its determinants of hand, foot and mouth disease in Hunan, China, 2009-2015

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dc.contributor.authorWu, X.
dc.contributor.authorKwaku, A.B.
dc.contributor.authorLi, Q.
dc.contributor.authorLuo, K.
dc.contributor.authorZhou, Y.
dc.contributor.authorTan, H.
dc.date.accessioned2017-10-30T17:11:32Z
dc.date.available2017-10-30T17:11:32Z
dc.date.issued2017
dc.description.abstractBackground: Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is one of the highest reported infectious diseases with several outbreaks across the world. This study aimed at describing epidemiological characteristics, investigating spatio-temporal clustering changes, and identifying determinant factors in different clustering areas of HFMD. Methods: Descriptive statistics was used to evaluate the epidemic characteristics of HFMD from 2009 to 2015. Spatial autocorrelation and spatio-temporal cluster analysis were used to explore the spatial temporal patterns. An autologistic regression model was employed to explore determinants of HFMD clustering. Results: The incidence rates of HFMD ranged from 54.31/10 million to 318.06/10 million between 2009 and 2015 in Hunan. Cases were mainly prevalent in children aged 5 years and even younger, with an average male-to-female sex ratio of 1.66, and two epidemic periods in each year. Clustering areas gathered in the northern regions in 2009 and in the central regions from 2010 to 2012. They moved to central-southern regions in 2013 and 2014 and central-western regions in 2015. The significant risk factors of HFMD clusters were rainfall (OR = 2.187), temperature (OR = 4.329) and humidity (OR = 2.070). The protect factor was wind speed (OR = 0.258). Conclusions: The HFMD incidence from 2009 to 2015 in Hunan showed a new spatiotemporal clustering tendency, with the shifting trend of clustering areas toward south and west. Meteorological factors showed a strong association with HFMD clustering, which may assist in predicting future spatial-temporal clusters.en_US
dc.identifier.issn14712334
dc.identifier.other10.1186/s12879-017-2742-9
dc.identifier.urihttp://ugspace.ug.edu.gh/handle/123456789/22348
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherBioMed Central Ltd.en_US
dc.subjectAutologistic regression modelen_US
dc.subjectDeterminantsen_US
dc.subjectHFMDen_US
dc.subjectSpatial autocorrelationen_US
dc.subjectSpatio-temporal analysisen_US
dc.subjectTendency analysisen_US
dc.titleSpatio-temporal clustering analysis and its determinants of hand, foot and mouth disease in Hunan, China, 2009-2015en_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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