Application of Time Series in Predicting the Water Levels of the Akosombo Dam

Abstract

Energy from hydro-electricity is the cheapest form of power generation in this country. The Volta River Authority can however generate power optimally if water levels within the dam is between 240ft and 280ft. This is not always the case, since the only source of water for the dam is rainfall, which is also random and dependent on weather conditions. Knowledge of the water level within any month of the year will therefore be very useful in the production, distribution and management of power from the dam.The study looked at how use of time series analysis could be used in predicting the average monthly water levels of the Akosombo dam. The study took a step-by-step approach of the Box-Jenkins ARIMA process and arrived at a seasonal model (1,1, 0) × (0,1,1) 12 . This model turned to be a good forecast for the average monthly water levels. Per the findings in this research work, it was recommended that, if data points were in the excess of 70, then the Box-Jenkins ARIMA model can be used to predict prices of utilities such as water and electricity. Fellow statisticians were also encouraged to look at other forecasting tools such as artificial neural networks since it had very good features as the Box-Jenkins ARIMA model.