Modeling The Effect Of The Bagre Dam On The Water Levels Of The Akosombo Dam: Time Series Intervention Analysis

Abstract

The water level at a particular time determines the amount of hydro electrical energy generated by the Akosombo dam. The Akosombo dam serves as the main source of electrical energy in Ghana. This research work sought to estimate and assess the impact of the Bagre Dam as an intervention event on the Akosombo Dam. Daily water level data covering the period 1982 to 2002 which was obtained from the Volta River Authority (V.R.A), Ghana was used in carrying out this study. Empirical results from the study indicated that the pre-intervention period of the data could be best modelled with a    12 SARIMA 1,1,0  0,1,1 process. Further analysis shows that the residuals of the preintervention model follows a white noise process. The impact of the intervention event was estimated to be 0.5052 with a corresponding long term effect of 0.63142. The decay parameter was estimated to be 0.1999. However, both the impact and decay parameters were found not to be statistically significant. We recommend that the Volta River Authority must keep constant communication with the authorities of the Bagre Dam to ensure that information is properly circulated whenever they want to spill excess water from the Bagre Dam.