COVID-19 lockdown policy and national elections: A quasi-experimental analysis of Ghana’s 2020 Election

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has undoubtedly had a significant adverse effect on world democracies, especially elections scheduled in 2020. Per constitutional requirements, Ghana’s presidential and parliamentary elections were held on 7 December 2020. Using longitudinal national election data, we investigate the effect of the COVID-19 lockdown policy on the number of registered voters, voter turnout and vote shares of the incumbent and main opposition parties. We took advantage of the partial lockdown that was imposed in some parts of the country and employed the difference-indifference quasi-experimental method. The results show that the COVID-19 lockdown had a positive effect on the number of registered voters and a negative effect on voter turnout. In addition, we did not find any incumbency advantage or dis advantage resulting from the COVID-19 lockdown but the COVID-19 lockdown had a positive effect on the vote share of the opposition party. These results suggest the need for other voting methods such as early voting, increasing the number of polling stations/voting centres, electronic voting and vote by-mail which involve lesser social interaction and hence may encourage electoral participation during health pandemics.