Agricultural Export, Growth and the Poor in Africa: A Meta Analysis

Abstract

Over the past decade, a growing number of studies have examined the role of agricultural export in economic growth in Africa. The literature, however, provides conflicting results about the agricultural export-led growth hypothesis. In this study, we aim to re-examine the impact of agricultural export on economic growth by performing a meta-analysis. There are two questions of interest, namely, (a) whether publication bias is present in the agricultural export-growth literature in Africa, and (b) if there is an overall effect of agricultural export on economic growth. Our meta-analysis finds significant negative publication bias in the literature. Moreover, after correction for publication bias, the results show that agricultural export leads to growth in low-income and lower middle-income African countries. These results are consistent with the agricultural export-led growth hypothesis. By this, we provide empirical basis that may enhance policy decisions on resource allocation to areas of comparative advantage. Additionally, the existence of an income differential effect on the agricultural export-led growth nexus implies that agricultural export-growth strategy has a pronounced effect on the poor in Africa. The result suggests that the poor in Africa could follow an agricultural growth strategy because it is a promising means to increase per capita wealth.