Sectoral Loan Portfolio Concentration and Bank Stability: Evidence from an Emerging Economy

Abstract

In this study, the effect of sectoral loan portfolio concentration on bank stability is investigated in the Ghanaian banking sector between 2007 and 2014. Specifically, we investigate the linearity and non-linearity effects of sectoral loan concentration on bank stability given the limited exploration of this nexus. Employing a two-step generalized method of moments (GMM) robust random and fixed effects panel models of 30 banks, the study provides evidence showing that sectoral loan concentration weakens the stability of banks. This confirms the concentration-fragility hypothesis and the diversification theory of traditional banking but may promote bank stability beyond a certain threshold point. This implies that bank sectoral loan concentrate has a direct non-linear U-shape effect on bank stability in Ghana. We argue that although sectoral loan concentration may weaken stability of banks in the short run, it may however enhance the stability of banks in the long run through prolonged expert knowledge, experience and understanding of sectors. From these findings, policymakers, regulators and bank managers must not only develop and design policies and regulations that prohibit sectoral loan concentration but should also incorporate plans and policies that encourage banks to develop core competence and competitive advantage to take advantage of advancing bank stability through sectoral loan concentration.