Predicting The Imminence Of Fire Disaster Risk On The Economy Of Ghana: An Early Warning System

Abstract

This study examines the nature of regional fire risk frequency in Ghana and provides a fire prediction model, fire risk assessment and also contributes to development of disaster risk capacities in Ghana. The study adequately provides with clear messages and consequences of the fire disaster risk and also provide reliable information to institutions on how to respond to the warnings received. Secondary data obtained from the Ghana Open Data Initiative for this study includes monthly fire frequency count data on Ghana from 2007 to 2011. The data consists of the number of rescues, injury, death, cost of damage and count fire occurrence on all the ten regions including two operational regions in Ghana. An empirical negative binomial probability distribution, normal and Poisson model are fitted to the count fire frequency and fire fatality data in various operational and administrative regions. The likelihood of estimated parameter values of the fitted distribution for fire frequency and fatalities was bootstrapped where standard errors of the bootstrapped parameter helped in computing of the confidence interval of the estimated parameters. The statistical distribution fitted to the fire frequency data helps identify the class of models that is exhibited by the data from each region and provides time leading decisions for Government institutions, academics, risk managers, actuaries and the entire population. Based on the predictions of the statistical models, the study suggest that Government and stakeholders should make available necessary equipment to help fight fire in various vulnerable areas in the regions.