Long-term electricity generation analysis and policy implications – the case of Ghana

Abstract

The pursuit of a cost-effective and low-carbon electricity generation environment is critical to achieving Ghana's economic and industrial ambitions. Ghana’s development agenda calls for an average electricity consumption of about 5,000 kWh per capita by 2030. To this end, the effective harnessing of energy resources requires the implementation of robust policies for sustainable electricity generation. This study employs the IAEA MESSAGE analytical tool to conduct a quantitative assessment of electricity generation in Ghana from 2020 to 2048. The findings show that, by 2048, a diversified electricity generation scenario will result in a 32.30% decrease in cost and a 55.27% reduction in CO2 emissions, compared to an accelerated economic growth (AEG) scenario, which will increase cost and CO2 emissions by 12.21% and 21.10%, respectively. The results underscore the importance of ensuring that electricity generation policies balance economic, environmental, and social concerns. Achieving a green energy transition agenda in Ghana and other developing nations will require a long-term commitment to a generation mix that is both sustainable and economically viable. The implementation of such a policy will require an informed and dedicated effort from all stakeholders.