Rice price volatility and transmission: implications for food security in Ghana
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Date
2022
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Cogent Economics & Finance
Abstract
This paper examines price volatility and transmission of rice markets in
Ghana and draws implications for food security. Using monthly rice price data from
From 2013 to 2019, the paper uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) with an
Error Correction Model (ECM) to ascertain the availability and accessibility of rice,
whilst the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH)
model is considered to measure the stability of the commodity. The paper finds
evidence of cointegration between the World and Ghana’s rice market. Findings
confirm cointegration in Ghana’s regional markets for both imported and domestically produced rice. This ensures stable long-run relationship, allowing trade flows
that guarantees rice availability. The corrections in short-run deviations of price
ensure continuous accessibility of rice in the country. Estimates from the volatility
model suggest high fluctuation in prices, implying stability in the prices of rice
is an issue across all regional markets. The paper recommends efforts to increase
domestic production to enhance availability and accessibility of rice. Stakeholders
along the rice value chain should be encouraged to invest in competitive riceproduction. government should leverage rice prices with giant import countries to
reduce the cost of importation for stable price on the market.
Description
Research Article
Keywords
Price transmission, market integration, food security