Use and economic benefits of indigenous seasonal climate forecasts: evidence from Benin, West Africa

Abstract

Since immemorial times, farmers especially in Africa have built and transmitted orally from one generation to another a complex network of seasonal climate knowledge enabling them to lower climate variabilities and vagaries. Despite the prominent role of this knowledge system in smallholder farming, empirical studies relative to the production process, use and economic valuation of this knowledge to inform decision-making are scanty. Travel cost method, descriptive statistics and a twostep Heckman method are used to analyse the use and economic value of indigenous seasonal climate forecasts (ISCF) in Benin. ISCF were produced based on the observation of abiotic and biotic indicators in Kandi, Glazoué and Zè with the observations largely undertaken by local elders and professional traditional forecasters. Most farmers got ISCF either by travelling to visit a source of knowledge or by sacrificing their time. The use of ISCF increased a maize producer’s net income by at least 3%, implying that ISCF are valuables goods. The main factors driving the use and value of ISCF were the use of fertilizer, large farm size, traditional African religions and access to market. Therefore, policy to promote the integration of indigenous forecasting knowledge with modern forecasting system should be taken.