Simulations of Policy Responses and Interventions to Promote Inclusive Adaptation to and Recovery from the COVID-19 Crisis in Ghana
Date
2022
Authors
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Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
International Journal of Microsimulation
Abstract
We assess the impact of COVID-19 shocks on household welfare and the effectiveness of
select policies implemented to reduce their impact on welfare in Ghana. We adopt a microsimulation
approach to assess the effects of COVID-19 on household welfare. Welfare fell by 34.2% to 41.9%
between March and June 2020. Over the same period, the poverty headcount and the Gini index
increased by 9 to 10.5 percentage points and 0.4 to 0.6 points, respectively. The number of poor
people increased by 2.8 to 3.2 million. The hardest-hit sector was education, followed by agriculture and forestry
and fishing, trade and repairs, manufacturing, and other services also affected. The effects vary for
men, women and children. While women experienced the largest decline in welfare, men experienced
the highest increase in poverty incidence. The three policies selected reduced poverty marginally but
were unable to offset the increase in poverty that occurred between March and June. The estimated
cost of the three policies is GHS3.7 billion excluding administrative costs, which equates to approximately 1% of 2020 GDP
Description
Research Article
Keywords
Covid-19, Ghana, microsimulation