Climate Change Perceptions, Seasonality in Cocoa Output and their Effects on Food Security among Cocoa Farmers in the Western and Ashanti Regions of Ghana

Abstract

To enhance policy towards addressing the challenges that climate change poses on seasonality of cocoa outputs and farmer income. Seasonality is a particular type of temporal (time) variability in endowments and prevalent in agricultural production cycles. It is important to have knowledge of cocoa farmers perception of climate change on their cocoa yields and food security, their perceptions on potential climate-smart agricultural practices that enhances adaptation to climate change, their seasonal cocoa production and output that smoothens their income and food security in enhancing cocoa farm productivity and sustainability. However, there is a scarcity of information and empirical evidence on their linkages. This study used cross-sectional baseline and panel data across 15 communities in three cocoa districts: Ellembelle and Wassa Amenfi Central in the Western region and Afigya Kwabre North in the Ashanti region for the analyses. The study used responses from 402 cross-sectional baseline, and monthly panel data responses from 150 farmers over two (2) years. A combination of purposive and random sampling approaches was developed by the study. The panel data covered the period 2022/2023 to 2023/2024 cocoa cropping years. The study describes and analyzes farmers’ perceptions of climate change variability and its effects on cocoa yields. Descriptive statistics such as frequencies, percentages, means and graphs were used to describe socioeconomic characteristics, institutional, location, climate change perceptions, Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) practices, among others. A regression model was used to analyze the effects of climate change variability on coca yields. The Multivariate Probit (MVP) model was used to analyze the perception of cocoa farmers CSA practices and factors influencing recommended practices for improved cocoa yields and farm income. Panel regressions using the fixed effect regression model was employed to estimate seasonality in cocoa output effects on the income of the cocoa farmers; whilst the random effect multinomial logistic regression was to estimate seasonality in cocoa output on the seasonal households (women of reproductive age 15-49yrs) food security indicators, and seasonal cocoa income effects on food security status of the cocoa farmers. The Women Dietary Diversity Score (WDDS) and the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale (HFIAS) served as proxies for individual (women) and household food security. In general, the findings of the study suggest male cocoa farmers constituted the majority for baseline and panel surveys. Perception of negative long-term changes in rainfall negatively influenced cocoa yields. Factors that influenced recommended Climate Smart Agriculture practices for improved yields are farmer education, marital status and where the farmer resides (location). Diversifying non-cocoa farm income significantly increases the overall cocoa farm income. Women dietary diversity is better during the major cocoa season than in the minor season. Seasonality in the minor cocoa season poses a challenge to farmers, being food secured plays a crucial role in mitigating its negative effects. Food-secured cocoa farmers tend to have higher per-capita income and off-farm income, highlighting the importance of food security in improving the livelihoods of cocoa farmers. However, household food security is impacted negatively throughout the cocoa season (major and minor season periods). The study suggests innovative irrigation schemes for cocoa production to help improve cocoa yields. Additionally, the Cocoa Health and Extension Division of COCOBOD should intensify their efforts in providing farmers with technical training on agronomic practices. Lastly, stakeholders in cocoa space strengthen agronomic practices and incentivize cocoa farmers with income generating activities to enhance cocoa productivity throughout the year to smoothen their food security needs.