Fiscal rules, fiscal performance and economic growth in Sub‐Saharan Africa

Abstract

Over the past four decades, many economies have striven to find permanent solutions to persistent increases in public deficits and deterioration of growth. For most economies, the solution to this problem was the adoption of fiscal rules. This paper presents empirical evidence on the effects of fiscal rules on fiscal performance and economic growth using a dataset of 43 countries in Sub‐Saharan Africa over 27 years. The study applies simultaneous equation models to determine the relationship between performance and growth in the public sector and also to avoid structural equation and endogeneity biases. The results show that fiscal rules significantly foster fiscal performance and decelerate growth. The study further finds the expenditure rules to be most effective in influencing fiscal balance and economic growth. The robust estimates further confirm that expenditure rules and government spending efficiency are necessary for promoting fiscal outcomes and economic growth. The study recommends the implementation of more revenue rules, debt rules, and balance budget rules to ameliorate the negative effects of government spending on economic growth. In addition, Sub‐Saharan African economies should carefully consider the rules applied to government spending since fiscal rules on productive spending will impede economic growth.