Estimating district HIV prevalence in Zambia using small-area estimation methods (SAE)
Date
2022
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Population Health Metrics
Abstract
Background: The HIV/AIDS pandemic has had a very devastating impact at a global level, with the Eastern and
Southern African region being the hardest hit. The considerable geographical variation in the pandemic means
varying impact of the disease in different settings, requiring differentiated interventions. While information on the
prevalence of HIV at regional and national levels is readily available, the burden of the disease at smaller area levels,
where health services are organized and delivered, is not well documented. This afects the targeting of HIV resources.
There is need, therefore, for studies to estimate HIV prevalence at appropriate levels to improve HIV-related planning
and resource allocation.
Methods: We estimated the district-level prevalence of HIV using Small-Area Estimation (SAE) technique by utilizing
the 2016 Zambia Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment Survey (ZAMPHIA) data and auxiliary data from the 2010
Zambian Census of Population and Housing and the HIV sentinel surveillance data from selected antenatal care clinics
(ANC). SAE models were fitted in R Programming to ascertain the best HIV predicting model. We then used the Fay–
Herriot (FH) model to obtain weighted, more precise and reliable HIV prevalence for all the districts.
Results: The results revealed variations in the district HIV prevalence in Zambia, with the prevalence ranging from
as low as 4.2% to as high as 23.5%. Approximately 32% of the districts (n=24) had HIV prevalence above the national
average, with one district having almost twice as much prevalence as the national level. Some rural districts have very
high HIV prevalence rates.
Conclusions: HIV prevalence in Zambian is highest in districts located near international borders, along the main
transit routes and adjacent to other districts with very high prevalence. The variations in the burden of HIV across districts in Zambia point to the need for a differentiated approach in HIV programming within the country. HIV resources
need to be prioritized toward districts with high population mobility.
Description
Research Article
Keywords
SAE, Small-area estimation, HIV, Prevalence, District, Fay–Herriot, Auxiliary information