Annual transition probabilities of overweight and obesity in older adults: Evidence from World Health Organization Study on global AGEing and adult health

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dc.contributor.authorBiritwum, R.B.
dc.contributor.authorLartey, S.T.
dc.contributor.authorSi, L.
dc.contributor.authorOtahal, P.
dc.contributor.authorde Graaff, B.
dc.contributor.authorBoateng, G.O.
dc.contributor.authorMinicuci, N.
dc.contributor.authorKowal, P.
dc.contributor.authorMagnussen, C.G.
dc.contributor.authorPalmer, A.J.
dc.date.accessioned2020-03-05T10:28:19Z
dc.date.available2020-03-05T10:28:19Z
dc.date.issued2020-01-28
dc.descriptionResearch Articleen_US
dc.description.abstractOverweight/obesity is becoming increasingly prevalent in sub-Saharan Africa including Ghana. However, transition probabilities, an essential component to develop cost-effective measures for weight management is lacking in this population. We estimated annual transition probabilities between three body mass index (BMI) categories: normal weight (BMI ≥18.5 and <25.0 kg/m2), overweight (BMI ≥25.0 and <30.0 kg/m2), and obesity (BMI ≥30.0 kg/m2), among older adults aged ≥50 years in Ghana. Data were used from a nationally representative, multistage sample of 1496 (44.3% females) older adults in both Waves 1 (2007/8) and 2 (2014/ 15) of the Ghana WHO SAGE. A multistage Markov model was used to estimate annual transition probabilities. We further examined the impact of specific socio-economic factors on the transition probabilities. At baseline, 22.8% were overweight and 11.1% were obese. The annual transition probability was 4.0% (95% CI: 3.4%, 4.8%) from normal weight to overweight, 11.1% (95% CI: 9.5%, 13.0%) from overweight to normal weight and 4.9% (95% CI: 3.8%, 6.2%) from overweight to obesity. For obese individuals, the probability of remaining obese, transitioning to overweight and completely reverting to normal weight was 90.2% (95% CI: 87.7%, 92.3%), 9.2% (95% CI: 7.2%, 11.6%) and 0.6% (95% CI: 0.4%, 0.8%) respectively. Being female, aged 50–65 years, urban residence, having high education and high wealth were associated with increased probability of transitioning into the overweight or obese categories. Our findings highlight the difficulty in transitioning away from obesity, especially among females. The estimated transition probabilities will be essential in health economic simulation models to determine sustainable weight management interventionsen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipJ Palmer is funded by the Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research, Australian Research Council (CE170100005). The National Heart Foundation of Australia Future Leader Fellowship (100849) supports Dr. Costan G Magnussen. Dr. Lei Si is supported by a NHMRC Early Career Fellowship (Grant number: GNT1139826). The Study on global AGEing and adult health (SAGE) Waves 1 & 2 were supported by WHO and the US National Institute on Aging's Division of Behavioural and Social Science Research (BSR) through Interagency Agreements (OGHA 04034785; YA1323-08-CN-0020; Y1-AG-1005-01) with WHO. Financial and in-kind support has come from the University of Ghana's Department of Community Health.en_US
dc.identifier.otherhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2020.112821
dc.identifier.urihttp://ugspace.ug.edu.gh/handle/123456789/35124
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherSocial Science & Medicineen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseries247;2020
dc.subjectMultistage markov modelen_US
dc.subjectObesityen_US
dc.subjectTransition probabilitiesen_US
dc.subjectSub-Saharan Africaen_US
dc.subjectWHO SAGEen_US
dc.titleAnnual transition probabilities of overweight and obesity in older adults: Evidence from World Health Organization Study on global AGEing and adult healthen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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