Effect Of Climate Change And Variability On Cocoa Output In The Western Region Of Ghana
Date
2016-07
Authors
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Publisher
University of Ghana
Abstract
The main objective of this study was to analyze the effects of climate change and variability on cocoa output. The multistage sampling techniques were used to select the respondents (cocoa farmers). The first and second objectives of the study described smallholder farmers’ perception on climate change and variability and examined any empirical evidence of climate change and variability in the study area respectively. The third objective primarily analyzed the effect of these climatic variables (rainfall, temperature, bright sunshine duration and relative humidity) on cocoa output. The study also described the adaptation strategies employed by the small scale cocoa farmers in mitigating the effects of climate change and variability within the study area in the fourth objective. The final objective addressed the determinants of choice of an adaptation strategy. Most farmers (77.1%) were aware of climate change and variability however, more men (65%) observed changes and variation in temperature and rainfall than women (35%). Climate has changed with varying levels of variation over the past 40 years in the Western Region. However, most of the climatic variables were not statistically significant. Bright Sunshine Duration was found to be statistically significant at 5% with P-values of 0.0369 and 0.0274 for the mean decades 1975-1985 and 1985-1994 and 1985-1994. There were greater than average rainfall, but no significant difference among the decades. Temperature, rainfall, and extreme temperature had no significant effect on cocoa output but previous year’s output and extreme rainfall had significant effect on the output of the small-scale cocoa farmers. A 1 mm increase in extreme rainfall amount resulted in a 0.24 MT/ha decrease in cocoa output whilst a unit change in technology resulted in a 0.86 MT/ha increase in cocoa output from the regression results. Almost 50.2% of the farmers adopted on-farm adaptation strategy while 32.9% adopted non-farm adaptation strategy and the remaining 16.9% did not adopt any strategy beside cocoa farming. In all, age, gender, education and membership of FBOs were statistically significant determinants of choice of adaptation strategies to climate change and variability. Membership of FBO makes a farmer 29.82 percent more likely to adopt On-farm adaption strategies. Men were 23.16% more likely to choose non-farm adaptation strategies than their female counterparts while females were 13.24% more likely to choose on-farm strategies. In conclusion, Bright Sunshine duration and extreme rainfall, had significant effect on cocoa production. It is recommended that COCOBOD, MoFA and NGOs should design improved technology such as cocoa seeds/seedlings that can withstand extreme climatic events as well as boost yields.
Description
Thesis (MPhil)
Keywords
Climate Change, Variability, Cocoa Output, Western Region, Ghana, Weather