Browsing by Author "Alam, N."
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Item The evolving demographic and health transition in four low- and middle-income countries: Evidence from four sites in the INDEPTH Network of longitudinal health and demographic surveillance systems(Public Library of Science, 2016) Bawah, A.; Houle, B.; Alam, N.; Razzaque, A.; Streatfield, P.K.; Debpuur, C.; Welaga, P.; Oduro, A.; Hodgson, A.; Tollman, S.; Collinson, M.; Kahn, K.; Toan, T.K.; Phuc, H.D.; Chuc, N.T.K.; Sankoh, O.; Clark, S.J.This paper contributes evidence documenting the continued decline in all-cause mortality and changes in the cause of death distribution over time in four developing country populations in Africa and Asia. We present levels and trends in age-specific mortality (all-cause and cause-specific) from four demographic surveillance sites: Agincourt (South Africa), Navrongo (Ghana) in Africa; Filabavi (Vietnam), Matlab (Bangladesh) in Asia. We model mortality using discrete time event history analysis. This study illustrates how data from INDEPTH Network centers can provide a comparative, longitudinal examination of mortality patterns and the epidemiological transition. Health care systems need to be reconfigured to deal simultaneously with continuing challenges of communicable disease and increasing incidence of non-communicable diseases that require long-term care. In populations with endemic HIV, long-term care of HIV patients on ART will add to the chronic care needs of the community.Item The Evolving Demographic and Health Transition in Four Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Evidence from Four Sites in the INDEPTH Network of Longitudinal Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems.(2016) Bawah, A.; Houle, B.; Alam, N.; Razzaque, A.; Streatfield, P.K.; Debpuur, C.; Welaga, P.; Oduro, A.; Hodgson, A.; Tollman, S.; Collinson, M.; Kahn, K.; Toan, T.K.; Phuc, D.H.; Chuc, N.T.K.; Sankoh, O.; Clark, S.J.This paper contributes evidence documenting the continued decline in all-cause mortality and changes in the cause of death distribution over time in four developing country populations in Africa and Asia. We present levels and trends in age-specific mortality (all-cause and cause-specific) from four demographic surveillance sites: Agincourt (South Africa), Navrongo (Ghana) in Africa; Filabavi (Vietnam), Matlab (Bangladesh) in Asia. We model mortality using discrete time event history analysis. This study illustrates how data from INDEPTH Network centers can provide a comparative, longitudinal examination of mortality patterns and the epidemiological transition. Health care systems need to be reconfigured to deal simultaneously with continuing challenges of communicable disease and increasing incidence of non-communicable diseases that require long-term care. In populations with endemic HIV, long-term care of HIV patients on ART will add to the chronic care needs of the community.Item Global, regional, and national deaths, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years, and years lived with disability for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and asthma, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015(The Lancet Respiratory Medicine, 2017-08) Soriano, J.B.; Abajobir, A.A.; Abate, K.H.; Abera, S.F.; Agrawal, A.; Ahmed, M.B.; Aichour, A.N.; Aichour, I.; Eddine Aichour, M.T.; Alam, K.; Alam, N.; Alkaabi, J.M.; Al-Maskari, F.; Alvis-Guzman, N.; Amberbir, A.; Amoako, Y.A.; Ansha, M.G.; Antó, J.M.; Asayesh, H.; Atey, T.M.; Avokpaho, E.F.G.A.; Barac, A.; Basu, S.; Bedi, N.; Bensenor, I.M.; Berhane, A.; Beyene, A.S.; Bhutta, Z.A.; Biryukov, S.; Boneya, D.J.; Brauer, M.; Carpenter, D.O.; Casey, D.; Christopher, D.J.; Dandona, L.; Dandona, R.; Dharmaratne, S.D.; Do, H.P.; Fischer, F.; Gebrehiwot, T.T.; Geleto, A.; Ghoshal, A.G.; Gillum, R.F.; Mohamed Ginawi, I.A.; Gupta, V.; Hay, S.I.; Edayati, M.T.; Horita, N.; Hosgood, H.D.; Jakovljevic, M.M.B.; James, S.L.; Jonas, J.B.; Kasaeian, A.; Khader, Y.S.; Khalil, I.A.; Khan, E.A.; Khang, Y.-H.; Khubchandani, J.; Knibbs, L.D.; Kosen, S.; Koul, P.A.; Kumar, G.A.; Leshargie, C.T.; Liang, X.; Magdy Abd El Razek, H.; Majeed, A.; Malta, D.C.; Manhertz, T.; Marquez, N.; Mehari, A.; Mensah, G.A.; Miller, T.R.; Mohammad, K.A.; Mohammed, K.E.; Mohammed, S.; Mokdad, A.H.; Naghavi, M.; Nguyen, C.T.; Nguyen, G.; Nguyen, Q.L.; Nguyen, T.H.; Ningrum, D.N.A.; Nong, V.M.; Obi, J.I.; Odeyemi, Y.E.; Ogbo, F.A.; Oren, E.; Mahesh, P.A.; Park, E.-K.; Patton, G.C.; Paulson, K.; Qorbani, M.; Quansah, R.; Rafay, A.; Rahman, M.H.U.; Rai, R.K.; Rawaf, S.; Reinig, N.; Safiri, S.; Sarmiento-Suarez, R.; Sartorius, B.; Savic, M.; Sawhney, M.; Shigematsu, M.; Smith, M.; Tadese, F.; Thurston, G.D.; Topor-Madry, R.; Tran, B.X.; Ukwaja, K.N.; van Boven, J.F.M.; Vlassov, V.V.; Vollset, S.E.; Wan, X.; Werdecker, A.; Hanson, S.W.; Yano, Y.; Yimam, H.H.; Yonemoto, N.; Yu, C.; Zaidi, Z.; Sayed Zaki, M.E.; Lopez, A.D.; Murray, C.J.L.; Vos, T.; GBD 2015 Chronic Respiratory Disease CollaboratorsBACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma are common diseases with a heterogeneous distribution worldwide. Here, we present methods and disease and risk estimates for COPD and asthma from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) 2015 study. The GBD study provides annual updates on estimates of deaths, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), a summary measure of fatal and non-fatal disease outcomes, for over 300 diseases and injuries, for 188 countries from 1990 to the most recent year. METHODS: We estimated numbers of deaths due to COPD and asthma using the GBD Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) tool. First, we analysed data from vital registration and verbal autopsy for the aggregate category of all chronic respiratory diseases. Subsequently, models were run for asthma and COPD relying on covariates to predict rates in countries that have incomplete or no vital registration data. Disease estimates for COPD and asthma were based on systematic reviews of published papers, unpublished reports, surveys, and health service encounter data from the USA. We used the Global Initiative of Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease spirometry-based definition as the reference for COPD and a reported diagnosis of asthma with current wheeze as the definition of asthma. We used a Bayesian meta-regression tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to derive estimates of prevalence and incidence. We estimated population-attributable fractions for risk factors for COPD and asthma from exposure data, relative risks, and a theoretical minimum exposure level. Results were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure of income per capita, mean years of education over the age of 15 years, and total fertility rate. FINDINGS: In 2015, 3·2 million people (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1 million to 3·3 million) died from COPD worldwide, an increase of 11·6% (95% UI 5·3 to 19·8) compared with 1990. There was a decrease in age-standardised death rate of 41·9% (37·7 to 45·1) but this was counteracted by population growth and ageing of the global population. From 1990 to 2015, the prevalence of COPD increased by 44·2% (41·7 to 46·6), whereas age-standardised prevalence decreased by 14·7% (13·5 to 15·9). In 2015, 0·40 million people (0·36 million to 0·44 million) died from asthma, a decrease of 26·7% (-7·2 to 43·7) from 1990, and the age-standardised death rate decreased by 58·8% (39·0 to 69·0). The prevalence of asthma increased by 12·6% (9·0 to 16·4), whereas the age-standardised prevalence decreased by 17·7% (15·1 to 19·9). Age-standardised DALY rates due to COPD increased until the middle range of the SDI before reducing sharply. Age-standardised DALY rates due to asthma in both sexes decreased monotonically with rising SDI. The relation between with SDI and DALY rates due to asthma was attributed to variation in years of life lost (YLLs), whereas DALY rates due to COPD varied similarly for YLLs and years lived with disability across the SDI continuum. Smoking and ambient particulate matter were the main risk factors for COPD followed by household air pollution, occupational particulates, ozone, and secondhand smoke. Together, these risks explained 73·3% (95% UI 65·8 to 80·1) of DALYs due to COPD. Smoking and occupational asthmagens were the only risks quantified for asthma in GBD, accounting for 16·5% (14·6 to 18·7) of DALYs due to asthma. INTERPRETATION: Asthma was the most prevalent chronic respiratory disease worldwide in 2015, with twice the number of cases of COPD. Deaths from COPD were eight times more common than deaths from asthma. In 2015, COPD caused 2·6% of global DALYs and asthma 1·1% of global DALYs. Although there are laudable international collaborative efforts to make surveys of asthma and COPD more comparable, no consensus exists on case definitions and how to measure disease severity for population health measurements like GBD. Comparisons between countries and over time are important, as much of the chronic respiratory burden is either preventable or treatable with affordable interventions.Item Malaria mortality in Africa and Asia: Evidence from INDEPTH health and demographic surveillance system sites(Global Health Action, 2014-10) Kim Streatfield, P.; Khan, W.A.; Bhuiya, A.; Hanifi, S.M.A.; Alam, N.; Diboulo, E.; Sié, A.; Yé, M.; Compaoré, Y.; Soura, A.B.; Bonfoh, B.; Jaeger, F.; Ngoran, E.K.; Awini, E.; Oduro, A.; Arthur, S.S.Background: Malaria continues to be a major cause of infectious disease mortality in tropical regions. However, deaths from malaria are most often not individually documented, and as a result overall understanding of malaria epidemiology is inadequate. INDEPTH Network members maintain population surveillance in Health and Demographic Surveillance System sites across Africa and Asia, in which individual deaths are followed up with verbal autopsies. Objective: To present patterns of malaria mortality determined by verbal autopsy from INDEPTH sites across Africa and Asia, comparing these findings with other relevant information on malaria in the same regions. Design: From a database covering 111,910 deaths over 12,204,043 person-years in 22 sites, in which verbal autopsy data were handled according to the WHO 2012 standard and processed using the InterVA-4 model, over 6,000 deaths were attributed to malaria. The overall period covered was 1992-2012, but two-thirds of the observations related to 2006-2012. These deaths were analysed by site, time period, age group and sex to investigate epidemiological differences in malaria mortality. Results: Rates of malaria mortality varied by 1:10,000 across the sites, with generally low rates in Asia (one site recording no malaria deaths over 0.5 million person-years) and some of the highest rates in West Africa (Nouna, Burkina Faso: 2.47 per 1,000 person-years). Childhood malaria mortality rates were strongly correlated with Malaria Atlas Project estimates of Plasmodium falciparum parasite rates for the same locations. Adult malaria mortality rates, while lower than corresponding childhood rates, were strongly correlated with childhood rates at the site level. Conclusions: The wide variations observed in malaria mortality, which were nevertheless consistent with various other estimates, suggest that population-based registration of deaths using verbal autopsy is a useful approach to understanding the details of malaria epidemiology. © 2014 INDEPTH Network.Item Pregnancy-related mortality in Africa and Asia: Evidence from INDEPTH health and demographic surveillance system sites(Global Health Action, 2014-10) Kim Streatfield, P.; Alam, N.; Compaoré, Y.; Rossier, C.; Soura, A.B.; Bonfoh, B.; Jaeger, F.; Ngoran, E.K.; Utzinger, J.; Gomez, P.; Jasseh, M.; Ansah, A.; Debpuur, C.; Oduro, A.; Addei, S.; Williams, J.; Gyapong, M.; Kukula, V.A.; Bauni, E.; Mochamah, G.; Ndila, C.; Williams, T.N.; Desai, M.; Chihana, M.; Moige, H.Background:Women continue to die in unacceptably large numbers around the world as a result of pregnancy, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. Part of the problem is a lack of accurate, population-based information characterising the issues and informing solutions. Population surveillance sites, such as those operated within the INDEPTH Network, have the potential to contribute to bridging the information gaps. Objective: To describe patterns of pregnancy-related mortality at INDEPTH Network Health and Demographic Surveillance System sites in sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia in terms of maternal mortality ratio (MMR) and cause-specific mortality rates. Design: Data on individual deaths among women of reproductive age (WRA) (15-49) resident in INDEPTH sites were collated into a standardised database using the INDEPTH 2013 population standard, the WHO 2012 verbal autopsy (VA) standard, and the InterVA model for assigning cause of death. Results: These analyses are based on reports from 14 INDEPTH sites, covering 14,198 deaths amongWRAover 2,595,605 person-years observed. MMRs varied between 128 and 461 per 100,000 live births, while maternal mortality rates ranged from 0.11 to 0.74 per 1,000 person-years. Detailed rates per cause are tabulated, including analyses of direct maternal, indirect maternal, and incidental pregnancy-related deaths across the 14 sites. Conclusions: As expected, these findings confirmed unacceptably high continuing levels of maternal mortality. However, they also demonstrate the effectiveness of INDEPTH sites and of the VA methods applied to arrive at measurements of maternal mortality that are essential for planning effective solutions and monitoring programmatic impacts. © 2014 Cecilia Fernbrant et al.