Abstract:
Including sea-level rise (SLR) projections in planning and implementing coastal adaptation is
crucial. Here we analyze the first global survey on the use of SLR projections for 2050 and
2100. Two-hundred and fifty-three coastal practitioners engaged in adaptation/planning from
49 countries provided complete answers to the survey which was distributed in nine languages – Arabic, Chinese, English, French, Hebrew, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese and
Spanish. While recognition of the threat of SLR is almost universal, only 72% of respondents
currently utilize SLR projections. Generally, developing countries have lower levels of utilization. There is no global standard in the use of SLR projections: for locations using a
standard data structure, 53% are planning using a single projection, while the remainder are
using multiple projections, with 13% considering a low-probability high-end scenario.
Countries with histories of adaptation and consistent national support show greater assimilation of SLR projections into adaptation decisions. This research provides new insights about
current planning practices and can inform important ongoing efforts on the application of the
science that is essential to the promotion of effective adaptation.
