University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh UNIVERSITY OF GHANA COLLEGE OF HUMANITIES INTRA- AND INTER-GROUP PERFORMANCE OF OIL PRODUCING COUNTRIES: A META- AND GLOBAL FRONTIER ANALYSIS BY VICTOR SOSU GAKPEY (10444001) THIS THESIS IS SUBMITTED TO THE UNIVERSITY OF GHANA IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENT FOR THE AWARD OF MPHIL OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT DEGREE DEPARTMENT OF OPERATIONS AND MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEMS JULY 2016 i University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh DECLARATION I do hereby declare that this work is the result of my own research and has not been presented by anyone for any academic award in this or any other university. All references used in the work have been fully acknowledged. I bear sole responsibility for any shortcomings. …………………………………………. ………………………… VICTOR SOSU GAKPEY DATE (Student) i University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh CERTIFICATION I hereby certify that this thesis was supervised in accordance with procedures laid down by the University of Ghana. ……………………………………… ……………………………….. DR. KWAKU OHENE-ASARE DATE (SUPERVISOR) …………………………………………. ………………………………….. DR. ANTHONY AFFUL-DADZIE DATE (CO-SUPERVISOR) ii University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh DEDICATION To My Father and Mother iii University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I owe gratitude to my supervisors, Dr Kwaku Ohene-Asare and Dr Anthony Afful-Dadzie, both of the Department of Operations and Management Information Systems of the University of Ghana Business School, for their guidance and support. Further appreciation goes to all other faculty members of the Department especially Dr Francis Yaw Banuro and other staff of the department for their support. Finally, my sincerest thanks goes to my family, siblings, colleagues and friends for their diverse support and undying willingness to support me. iv University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh TABLE OF CONTENTS DECLARATION .................................................................................................................. i CERTIFICATION .............................................................................................................. ii DEDICATION ................................................................................................................... iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ................................................................................................. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS .................................................................................................... v LIST OF TABLES .......................................................................................................... viii LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................ x ABSTRACT ........................................................................................................................ xi CHAPTER ONE ................................................................................................................. 1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................... 1 1.0 Background of the Study ........................................................................................ 1 1.1 Statement of Problem ............................................................................................. 3 1.2 Contributions of the Study ..................................................................................... 6 1.3 Research Objectives ............................................................................................... 7 1.4 Research Questions ................................................................................................ 8 1.5 Limitations of the Study ......................................................................................... 8 1.6 Thesis Structure ...................................................................................................... 9 CHAPTER TWO .............................................................................................................. 10 2.0 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................. 11 2.1 Theoretical Review ............................................................................................... 11 2.1.1 Intra-Group Performance Theories ............................................................... 11 2.1.2 Inter-Group Performance Theories ............................................................... 17 2.2 Empirical Review ...................................................................................................... 24 2.2.1 Frontier Efficiency in the Oil Industry ............................................................... 24 2.2.2 Group Performance and Efficiency .................................................................... 27 v University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 2.3 Conceptual Framework ............................................................................................. 31 2.4 Conclusion ............................................................................................................ 32 CHAPTER THREE .......................................................................................................... 33 3.0 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................. 33 3.1 International Oil and Gas Supply and Demand .................................................... 34 3.1.1 Proven Oil and Gas Reserves ........................................................................ 34 3.1.2 Oil and Gas Supply ....................................................................................... 38 3.1.2 Oil and Gas Consumption ............................................................................. 42 3.2 Intergovernmental organizations in the oil industry ............................................. 44 3.2.1 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) ....................... 45 3.2.2 Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) ................. 47 3.2.3 The Former Soviet Union (FSU)................................................................... 48 3.2.4 The International Energy Agency (IEA) ....................................................... 49 3.3 Conclusion ............................................................................................................ 51 CHAPTER FOUR ............................................................................................................. 52 METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................................ 52 4.0 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 52 4.1 Research design .................................................................................................... 52 4.2 Data for modelling ................................................................................................ 53 4.3 Efficiency modelling and other considerations .................................................... 54 4.3.1 Metafrontier analysis ..................................................................................... 55 4.3.2 Global-frontier differences ............................................................................ 61 4.3.3 Bootstrapping ................................................................................................ 65 4.3.4 Testing returns to scale.................................................................................. 68 4.3.5 Testing of differences in the distribution of efficiency scores ...................... 70 4.4 Modelling inputs and outputs ............................................................................... 72 4.4.1 Inputs ............................................................................................................. 73 4.4.2 Outputs .......................................................................................................... 75 vi University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 4.5 Other DEA consideration ..................................................................................... 75 4.6 Conclusions .......................................................................................................... 76 CHAPTER FIVE ............................................................................................................... 77 ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSIONS ................................................................................... 77 5.0 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 77 5.1 Data Description ................................................................................................... 77 5.2 Scale Elasticity in the International Oil Industry ................................................. 81 5.3 Meta and Group Analysis of Inter- and Intra-IGO Performance ........................ 83 5.4 Global Frontier Differences Analysis of Inter-IGO Performance ...................... 105 5.5 Conclusions ........................................................................................................ 116 CHAPTER SIX ............................................................................................................... 117 SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ................................ 117 6.0 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 117 6.1 Summary of study .............................................................................................. 117 6.2 Conclusions of the study .................................................................................... 119 6.3 Recommendations of the study .......................................................................... 122 REFERENCES ................................................................................................................ 125 APPENDIX A .................................................................................................................. 155 APPENDIX B .................................................................................................................. 159 APPENDIX C .................................................................................................................. 164 APPENDIX D .................................................................................................................. 166 APPENDIX E .................................................................................................................. 171 vii University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh LIST OF TABLES Table Page Table 3.1: Crude Oil Proved Reserves (Billion Barrels) .................................................... 35 Table 3.2: Proved Reserves of Natural Gas (Trillion Cubic Feet) ...................................... 36 Table 3.3: Total Oil Supply (Thousand Barrels Per Day) ................................................... 38 Table 3.4: Exports of Crude Oil (Thousand Barrels Per Day) ............................................ 39 Table 3.5: Exports of Natural Gas (Billion Cubic Feet) ..................................................... 41 Table 3.6: Total Petroleum Consumption (Thousand Barrels Per Day) ............................. 42 Table 3.7: Dry Natural Gas Consumption (Billion Cubic Feet) ......................................... 44 Table 4.1 : Membership distribution of IGOs ..................................................................... 54 Table 4.2: Data of Hypothetical OPCs and IGOs ............................................................... 59 Table 4.3 : Group and Meta Efficiencies ............................................................................ 61 Table 4.4: Efficiencies for Global Frontier Difference Analysis ........................................ 64 Table 4.5: Global Frontier Differences ............................................................................... 65 Table 4.6: Model Variable Selection .................................................................................. 73 Table 5.1: Descriptive Statistics of Pooled Data from 2000 to 2013 .................................. 78 Table 5.2: Correlations between Inputs and Outputs .......................................................... 80 Table 5.3: Scale Elasticity Tests (Simar & Wilson, 2002) using the Mean of Ratios ........ 82 Table 5.4: Intra-Group Analysis of FSU Member States .................................................... 85 Table 5.5: Intra-Group Analysis of IEA Member States .................................................... 89 Table 5.6: Intra-Group Analysis of OAPEC Member States .............................................. 91 Table 5.7: Intra-Group Analysis of OPEC Member States ................................................. 93 Table 5.8: Inter-IGO Metafrontier Results.......................................................................... 97 Table 5.9: Pairwise Comparisons of Inter-IGO Performance ........................................... 100 Table 5.10: Technology Indices for the IGOs ................................................................... 106 viii University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh Table 5.11: Global Frontier Differences against OPEC Frontier ...................................... 109 Table 5.12: Global Frontier Differences against IEA Frontier ......................................... 110 Table 5.13: Global Frontier Differences against FSU Frontier......................................... 110 Table 5.14: Global Frontier Differences against OAPEC Frontier ................................... 111 Table 5.15: Pairwise Comparisons of Technology Indices ............................................... 113 ix University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page Figure 2. 1: Outcomes of Inter and Intra Group Collaboration........................................... 20 Figure 2.2: Distribution of Efficiency Studies by IGO ....................................................... 28 Figure 2.3: The Cooper Conceptual Framework................................................................. 31 Figure 3.1: Oil and Gas Reserve Trends ............................................................................. 37 Figure 4.1: Graphical Illustration of Hypothetical Data ..................................................... 59 Figure 5.1: Distribution of Metafrontier Scores of the IGOs .............................................. 98 Figure 5.2: Distribution of Technological Gap Ratios ...................................................... 102 Figure 5.3: Distribution of Technological Indices ............................................................ 108 x University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh ABSTRACT Oil and gas is an important factor in the economic growth and development of most economies and an integral part of the global economy. Oil producing countries (OPCs) play a substantial part in the ownership, production and marketing of extracted hydrocarbons. This has made oil and gas production and supply decisions at the country level key to operations managers globally. To enhance their oil and gas management capabilities, some countries in the international oil industry have coalesced into intergovernmental organisations (IGOs) that are aimed at improving their bargaining powers through consensus and cooperation. However, although these IGOs play an important role in the industry, little is known on the production and supply efficiencies of member states. Based on this background, the study provides insights on the dynamics of intra and inter group performance of OPCs in order to inform operations managers in these countries on their performance and benchmarks in the industry. This was done by assessing performance of OPCs in a particular IGO and comparing their performance with other OPCs in other IGOs. An unbalanced panel of OPCs in four IGOs was used by mainly drawing data from the U.S Energy Information Administration and the World Bank Development Indicators. In all 53 OPCs from the four IGOs in the international oil and gas industry for a 14-year period from 2000 to 2013 were used. Relevant performance measurement techniques in management science and operations management were used. The study identified that the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) production frontier outperforms the production frontiers of the other three IGOs in the inter group performance. IEA, on average, were the best performers followed by the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC), Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the Former Soviet Union (FSU) in that order. Finally, IEA and OAPEC production frontiers were seen to be consistently better than both the OPEC and FSU frontiers for all the 14 years of study. xi University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1.0 Background of the Study Oil and gas play important roles in the economic growth and development of most economies and have become an integral part of global economic life (Barros & Assaf, 2009; Cleveland, Costanza, Hall, & Kaufmann, 1997; Kashani, 2005b; Murphy & Hall, 2011b; Ramachandra, Loerincik, & Shruthi, 2006). Nearly two billion dollars’ worth of petroleum are traded globally everyday (Tordo, Tracy, & Arfaa, 2011) and oil is the primary largest commodity of international trade in terms of volume and value traded globally (Desta, 2003; Ismail et al., 2013). The sector supports such industries as energy, transportation, industrialized agriculture, steel and plastic pipe production, health care and chemical industries, which generate income and employment (Francisco, de Almeida, & da Silva, 2012; Ismail et al., 2013). This has made oil and gas production and supply decisions key to most economies globally. The importance of oil and gas has made oil producing countries (OPCs) play crucial roles in the supply of crude oil (Managi, Opaluch, Jin, & Grigalunas, 2006). OPCs through the production and export of oil and gas, hold substantial amount of the world petroleum reserves, production and marketing (Ike & Lee, 2014). Oil and gas affect relationships of countries and is a factor in determining foreign policy of producer and consumer countries (Hawdon, 2003; Stevens, 2008; Yergin, 2011). Of the 1,148 million barrels of stated oil reserves in the world, 77% are managed by states (Eller, Hartley, & Medlock, 2011). However, efficiency and productivity assessments in the oil and gas industry have ignored the cross-country assessment though OPCs play a critical role in the global oil and gas supply. 1 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh Some countries in the international oil sector have coalesced into intergovernmental organisations (IGOs) in order to remain efficient and competitive in oil and gas production and supply. IGOs are international associations established by governments or their representatives that have been sufficiently institutionalized by treaty to require regular meetings, rules governing decision making, a permanent staff and its headquarters (Shanks, Jacobson, & Kaplan, 1996). IGOs’ goal is to deliver high quality project outcomes and innovations to operational and economic issues at regional and global levels (Cissokho, Haughton, Makpayo, & Seck, 2013; Dorussen & Ward, 2008; Escobar & Le Chaffotec, 2015; Holland, 1998). In meeting the world’s growing economic demands, there have been a number of IGOs with policy direction towards the oil and gas industry. The four IGOs at the forefront of forging global policy in the oil and gas industry are Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Former Soviet Union (FSU) Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) and International Energy Agency (IEA). Without IGOs, it may be difficult to monitor performance of oil and gas production and supply over time and set up international regulations and restrictions for countries (Biermann & Bauer, 2004). Although many oil efficiency studies exist (Al-Obaidan & Scully, 1995; Barros & Antunes, 2014; Barros & Assaf, 2009; Barros & Managi, 2009a; Dike, 2013; Eller et al., 2011; Francisco et al., 2012; Hawdon, 2003; Ike & Lee, 2014; Ismail et al., 2013; Kashani, 2005b; Kim, Lee, Park, & Kim, 1999; Managi et al., 2006; Price & Weyman-Jones, 1996; Ramcharran, 2002; Sueyoshi & Goto, 2012a; Thompson, Dharmapala, Rothenberg, & Thrall, 1994; Wolf, 2009), few have assessed the performance of IGOs (Dike, 2013; Ike & Lee, 2014; Ramcharran, 2002) and they are the only ones who have examined the meta- productive-efficiency, group efficiency, technology gap ratios and frontier differences of IGO members in terms of oil and gas production and supply using the metafrontier analysis 2 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh (Battese, Rao, & O'Donnell, 2004; O’Donnell, Rao, & Battese, 2008a) or the global frontier difference (GFD) (Asmild & Tam, 2007). The GFD adequately compares the performance of the best-performing firms between different groups or the differences in the frontiers of different groups of firms. No oil efficiency study has tested the scale elasticity property based on the bootstrap algorithms (Simar & Wilson, 2002). Neither has any study used the Simar-Zelenyuk-adapted-Li test (SZAL) to statistically explore the significant differences in the distribution of meta-efficiency or average frontier differences between different IGOs and oil producing firms within these IGOs (Li, 1996; Simar & Zelenyuk, 2006). The purpose of this study is thus to contribute to the oil and gas efficiency literature by assessing meta-efficiency, group efficiency, technology gap ratios and frontier differences of oil-producing countries (OPCs) be it inter-IGOs or intra-IGOs using a data envelopment analysis (DEA)-based (Charnes, Cooper, & Rhodes, 1978b) metafrontier analysis (Battese et al., 2004; O’Donnell, Rao, & Battese, 2008b) and the GFD (Asmild & Tam, 2007). ‘Intra- IGOs’, mean OPCs within one IGO whiles ‘inter-IGOs’, mean the 4 different groups of IGO in the oil industry. By this, we are able to determine the IGO-group-specific effect on member countries’ performance. Next for robustness check, the study tests the differences in the distribution of meta-efficiency levels and frontier estimates between OPEC and OAPEC, OPEC and FSU, OPEC and IEA, OAPEC and FSU, OAPEC and IEA, FSU and IEA using the SZAL (Li, 1996; Simar & Zelenyuk, 2006). Policy prescriptions are provided. 1.1 Statement of Problem Despite the many oil and gas efficiency related studies (Zhou, Ang, & Poh, 2008), we identify some gaps in the recent literature. First, to the best of our knowledge, no paper has yet assessed the production efficiency or frontier differences between IGOs in the global oil 3 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh industry. Though, IGOs are explored in environmental policy (Biermann & Bauer, 2004), conflict policy (Dorussen & Ward, 2008), coastal zone management (Hayward & Cutler, 2006) and several other sectors (Cao, 2009; Kalb, 2010). Oil efficiency studies have mainly focussed on policy reforms (Barros & Managi, 2009a; Kashani, 2005b; Price & Weyman- Jones, 1996) and ownership and state involvement (Eller et al., 2011; Stevens, 2008; Sueyoshi & Goto, 2012a). Second, there are limited oil and gas efficiency and productivity studies that focus on inter- country assessment (international benchmarking) or on oil-producing countries (OPCs). Majority of the studies where mainly on the performance of oil companies or the performance of oil firms in one country (Hawdon, 2003). For example, whereas Al-Obaidan and Scully (1995), Sueyoshi and Goto (2012a) and Wolf (2009) assessed the performance of oil companies, Barros and Assaf (2009), Barros and Managi (2009a) and Kashani (2005b) focused only on oil firms or blocks or units in a single country. However, OPCs and not oil companies, are usually the owners of natural resources including oil and gas reserves. Besides, it is the performance of OPCs which are more affected by regional or global shocks (Abdalla, 1995; Dike, 2013; Goldthau & Witte, 2011). Yet, only Hawdon (2003) evaluated the efficiency of OPCs although Hawdon (2003) just dwelled on gas distribution. Third, despite the several efficiency studies in the oil and gas industry (Al-Obaidan & Scully, 1995; Barros & Antunes, 2014; Barros & Assaf, 2009; Barros & Managi, 2009a; Eller et al., 2011; Francisco et al., 2012; Hawdon, 2003; Ike & Lee, 2014; Ismail et al., 2013; Kashani, 2005b; Kim et al., 1999; Managi et al., 2006; Price & Weyman-Jones, 1996; Sueyoshi & Goto, 2012a; Thompson et al., 1994; Wolf, 2009), they all fail to adequately test the scale elasticity property of the industry before estimation. While different models exist to assess efficiency when the industry exhibits constant returns to scale (CRS) or 4 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh variable returns to scale (VRS), previous studies have arbitrarily selected either or both scale elasticities in assessment. Wrong choice of the scale elasticity property will lead to misleading conclusions (Dyson et al., 2001; Simar & Wilson, 2002, 2011). As yet, only Hawdon (2003) has made some attempts to statistically test the returns to scale property in efficiency assessment in the oil industry. However, Hawdon (2003) relied on the t-test and Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests as proposed by Banker (1996) which do not provide consistent results for DEA estimations (Simar & Wilson, 2002). Finally, there are concerns about the methods used by previous studies to compare performance differences between groups of oil and gas firms. For example, whereas Kashani (2005a, 2005b) and Hawdon (2003) used t-test and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test to compare performance differences of oil and gas fields, Eller et al. (2011), Ike and Lee (2014) and Wolf (2009) relied on dummy variables in regression analysis for such comparison. These parametric and nonparametric statistics as used in previous studies are flawed when used in DEA estimations. First, they are point estimates that rely on the mean or median to the neglect of the entire distribution of scores (Zelenyuk & Zheka, 2006). Second, these tests, especially the parametric ones, require several statistical properties which DEA estimates do not possess (Simar & Wilson, 1998). Finally, they require a careful consideration of whether the groups under consideration are of a dependent sample or independent sample (Epure, Kerstens, & Prior, 2011; Kenjegalieva, Simper, Weyman-Jones, & Zelenyuk, 2009; Simar & Wilson, 2002). No paper in the oil and gas efficiency literature has used the Simar- Zelenyuk-adapted-Li test (SZAL) to statistically explore significant differences in the distribution of efficiency or frontier estimates between different groups in the oil and gas industry (Li, 1996; Simar & Zelenyuk, 2006). This nonparametric test effectively compares the equality of distributions of efficiency estimates using kernel density estimations. 5 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 1.2 Contributions of the Study The purpose of this whole study is to contribute to the oil and gas efficiency literature by assessing meta-efficiency, group efficiency, technology gap ratios and frontier differences of the 65 oil-producing countries (OPCs) belonging to the four IGOs under review using a metafrontier and GFD analysis from the period of 2000 to 2013, to explore the efficiency differences of the IGOs, among member countries, and whether the IGOs have any effect on member countries’ performance. This study makes several key contributions to policy, practice and research. On the basis of policy contributions, member states of the various IGOs in the international oil industry may be adequately informed about their (in) efficiencies in the production and supply of oil relative to other countries. Also the study compares, benchmarks and ranks the performances of the various oil related IGOs which can provide a useful insight into production and supply policy regulation. Since these IGOs will be given an empirically grounded assessment of their performance relative to similar IGOs in the industry, it would provide references for drafting rules governing decision-making on production and supply efficiency based on the outcomes and recommendations. Some useful and insightful managerial contributions are obtainable. It would enhance the decision making of OPCs who do not belong to any IGO to know which IGO to join based on the meta-efficiency levels and frontier difference estimates. OPCs that currently belong to IGOs may also be informed of their performance as compared to other member countries of that particular IGO and provide policy prescriptions and innovation. This, would help them put in measures to improve their performance and become more competitive. From this study, oil production policy makers and governments may be able to quantify the benefits of implementing efficiency measures. 6 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh This study also makes five key contributions to research literature. First, it adds to the limited literature on inter-country oil and gas efficiency assessment which has only seen limited attention by Hawdon (2003) in gas distribution. Second, this is a premier oil and gas efficiency and productivity paper to apply the metafrontier and global frontier difference approach both of which cater for group heterogeneities. Estimation of technology gap ratios, group efficiency and meta-efficiency and global frontier difference. This is a novel empirical contribution in the oil and gas efficiency literature. Third, this is among the few studies to test the returns to scale property and the first in the international oil industry using Simar and Wilson (2002). Fourth and finally, this study contributes to the few literature that employ the innovative Simar-Zelenyuk-adapted-Li (1996) test to delve deeper into comparing the frontier differences and the meta-efficiency of IGOs in the international oil and gas industry. 1.3 Research Objectives The purpose of this study is to contribute to the oil and gas efficiency literature by assessing meta-efficiency, group efficiency, technology gap ratios and frontier differences of oil- producing countries (OPCs) be it inter-IGOs or intra-IGOs over the period, 2000-2013. The specific objectives are: 1. To test the scale elasticity property operating in the international oil industry of OPCs. 2. To assess the intra-IGOs and inter-IGOs group efficiency, meta-efficiency and technology gaps of OPCs. 3. To determine if a statistically significant difference exist in the distribution of the meta-efficiencies group efficiencies and technology indices of the four IGOs in the oil industry respectively. 7 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 4. To evaluate the inter-group frontier differences of the four IGOs 1.4 Research Questions The research seeks to answer the following questions: 1. Does the international oil technology industry of OPCs exhibit constant or variable scale elasticity property? 2. What are the intra-IGOs and inter-IGOs group efficiency, meta-efficiency and technology gap ratios of OPCs? 3. Are there statistically significant differences in the distribution of the meta- efficiencies, group efficiencies and technology indices of the four IGOs in the oil industry respectively? 4. What are the inter-group frontier differences of the four IGOs? 1.5 Limitations of the Study This study makes several key contributions to policy, practice and research, this notwithstanding there are some few challenges in terms of sample data and scope. Countries used for assessment were drawn from the list of members of the four IGOs under consideration. However, a few were eliminated from the sample because they produce either only oil or only gas. Whiles this is a limitation, majority of members of these IGOs produce both oil and gas. Additionally, in the sample data, a larger sample covering all oil producing countries in the world would have been appropriate but it is difficult to access due to data scarcity. The scope of the research covers the 14-year period from 2000 to 2013 as a result of data unavailability. Even though this period captures several dynamics in the international oil industry beyond this period would have allowed for more insights especially towards the 8 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh new low price environment the oil industry is currently facing. Finally, there are several other IGOs like European Union (EU), Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Organización Latinoamericana de Energia (OLADE) whose activities may influence the oil supply decisions of member countries. This notwithstanding, most of the members of these other IGOs are also members of the four IGOs that are currently under study. 1.6 Thesis Structure The thesis is organized into six chapters. Chapter one is the introduction chapter that provides a research background, an overview of the problems being addressed in this thesis, the research contributions, objectives and questions as well as limitations of the study. This is the preliminary chapter that lays the foundations for this thesis. Chapter two is dedicated to review of relevant literature regarding operation of inter-governmental organizations. It begins with a theoretical review where theories that pertain to both inter-group performance and intra-group performance are adequately presented. This is then followed by an empirical review of the contemporary empirical works conducted on IGO-efficiency across various industries as well as the oil and gas industry. Chapter two ends with a conceptual framework that shows the process the research objectives are addressed. Chapter three is the context of the study. It is aimed at providing insights into how the international oil industry operates as well as an overview of the mechanisms for membership and operation of the IGOs under consideration. The research methodology is presented in chapter four. This chapter provides the research design, the sampling approaches and the mathematical justifications of the models to be used in this study. Research findings based on the objectives of this study are then organized in chapter five. Here, the theoretical and empirical literature reviewed in chapter two are 9 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh used to support the research findings. Chapter six is the final chapter that provides a summary, conclusion and recommendations for policy, practice and further research. 10 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW 2.0 Introduction The section reviews theories on why membership of IGOs is expected to affect the efficiency of states in international oil industry. This consists of three main parts- a theoretical, an empirical review and a conceptual framework. The first part reviews the theories of intra-group performance that shows how state or firms gain or lose by belonging to a particular group. It also reviews theories on inter-group performance that shows why the performance of separate groups may differ. The second part reviews studies that have been done on efficiency of the oil industry. Finally, a conceptual framework that guides the entire research is presented. 2.1 Theoretical Review 2.1.1 Intra-Group Performance Theories Theories reviewed under this section provide an understanding of performance gains as a result of membership of a particular group. It will explain how units tend to benefit or lose by belonging to groups. Particularly, Social Network Theory (Mitchell, 1969; Tichy, Tushman, & Fombrun, 1979), Social Facilitation Theory (Triplett, 1898; Zajonc, 1965, 1968) and Institutional Theory (DiMaggio & Powell, 1983; Meyer & Rowan, 1977) will be reviewed. 11 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 2.1.1.1 Social Network Theory The effects of states’ membership and formation of IGOs and the importance of such governmental organisations have long been a topic of interest in world politics, economic development and academia. IGOs are formed to link actors (states) in acquiring information about interests and intentions because they create ties between states (Dorussen & Ward, 2008). A Social Network consists of a set of actors (states) and their relations (ties) between the states (Wasserman & Faust, 1994). Social networks are important in sustaining and improving attitudes, behaviours, health and well-being of actors in these social networks (Miles, 2012). The theory is often credited to earlier works of Barnes (1954), Bott (1957) and Granovetter (1973). Its academic applications span a broad range of disciplines including sociology, operations research, social psychology, political science, mathematics, epidemiology, computer science and economics just to mention a few (Katz, Lazer, Arrow, & Contractor, 2004; Marwell, Oliver, & Prahl, 1988). In operations management for example, complex logistic networks, transportation problems and some facility location decisions are based on social network theoretical considerations (Jackson, 2010), (Lovejoy & Handy, 2011; Lovejoy, Sciara, Salon, Handy, & Mokhtarian, 2013). The theory explains why individual groups or organization create these ties as an investment in the accumulation of social resources and capital (Katz et al., 2004). The basic idea of the theory is that the behaviour in a set of connection as a whole can be used to explain the behaviour of the actors (state) in the set (Mitchell, 1969; Tichy et al., 1979). States are said to be socially networked when they tend to think and behave similarly because they are connected (Garton, Haythornthwaite, & Wellman, 1997; Miles, 2012). These connections may include; communication ties (who gives information to who); formal ties (who reports 12 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh to who); affective ties (who trusts who); material ties (who supports who); proximity ties (who is close to who); and cognitive ties (who knows who) (Katz et al., 2004). Social network theorists believe that the underlying structure of the group determines the type, access and flow of resources to actors in the network (Daly, 2012). Therefore the theory moves away from the adage “It is not what you know, but who you know” to a more accurate adage “Who you know defines what you know” (Cross & Parker, 2004; Daly, 2012; Newman, Barabasi, & Watts, 2006). This theory can be applied to various category of analysis from individuals, organization or nation state that have same attributes for reciprocation (Kadushin, 2004). There has, however, been concerns on the mode in which the concept such as distance, social structure and cohesion can be applied in real world systems (Embirbayer & Goodwin, 1994). There is also debate over why people join networks. They may form these groups in order to maximize their personal preferences and desires (Katz et al., 2004). However, people may also join networks for more strategic and instrumental reasons (Kilduff & Brass, 2010). It must be understood that this theory helps explain both the positive and negative consequences of membership of such social networks. These ties or network may provide positive utilization to countries in the oil industry by influencing access to resources, reducing transactional costs and building interest based on coalitions (Lauber, Decker, & Knuth, 2008). It also facilitates the flow of information between actors (Tindall & Wellman, 2001). Countries may stand to benefit from membership of these groups through pooled collaborations in terms of technology and research as well as bargaining on global markets. However, because the ties between states in the group may be weak or strong (Granovetter, 1973; Katz et al., 2004; Miles, 2012), membership of these bodies may not have the same 13 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh level of success to all actors. Indeed, proponents of the theory believe that even strong membership may constrain an actor in maximizing performance (Daly, 2012; Lucas & Mayne, 2013), especially when the decisions of the group is not leading to improved performance. Eller et al. (2011) and Ike and Lee (2014), for example, have seen that production quotas of OPEC has over the years resulted in lower efficiencies of member states because of their inability to produce at truly efficient production levels. Finally, because individual actors may have overlapping and cross-cutting relationships with a multitude of groups (Katz et al., 2004), inter-group performance may differ 2.1.1.2 Social Facilitation Theory Individuals respond to a range of incitements in the environment, significant of this is the presence of another actor or audience. This can have a positive or a negative effect on an individual’s performance and has been a subject debated for researchers in the field of social science and psychology for centuries (Miles, 2012; Zajonc, 1965). At the basic level, the social facilitation theory believes that the performance of various actors are not solely dependent on their own performance, but can also be largely influenced by other persons around the individual (Crawford, 1939; Miles, 2012). This theory was first identified by Triplett (1898). The term “social facilitation” was first introduced by the Allport (1920) and defined as an increase or decrease in response to sight and sound of others making the same movement. Crawford (1939) defined it as the measurement of individual activity resulting from the presence of others. According to the theory, social facilitation and interference, the mere presence of others is a source of generic and nondirective arousal that enhances the dominant responses of the performer (Markus, 1978). 14 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh Social facilitation deals with the importance of social presence on individual or groups performance. It focuses on the changes in performance that occurs when individuals or groups are evaluated or observed by others (Aiello & Douthitt, 2001). It refers to performance enhancement and improvement effects engendered by the presence of others either as co-actors, more typically as observers or audience (Blascovich, Mendes, Hunter, & Salomon, 1999). When individuals or group performance or action is the focus of the attention of others, the reactions of the individuals are related to the meaning assigned by the social presence (Uziel, 2007). This is because social presence increases drive and motivate greater effort (Triplett, 1898). The presence of others strengthens the correct responses and has a beneficial effect on performance (Hunt & Hillery, 1973; Martens, 1969; Zajonc & Sales, 1966) However, Cottrell (1968) on the other hand proposed that the stimulation and drive for individual or group to perform is occasioned by the individual or group concern of others evaluating its performance. The theory is only concerned with a range of performance levels, instead of specific desired outcomes under the effects social presence or the environment (Aiello & Douthitt, 2001; Kelley & Thibaut, 1954). In the context of this study, it can be thought that other actors in the intergovernmental organization may have effect on the behavior of individual members to improve in their operations for efficiency and gains. In other words, when countries are operating alone, their performance may not be as good as if they are in a group. This is because the mere presence of another person is sufficient to influence an individual’s behavior. The power of others to influence an individual behavior is readily apparent in problems of imitation, conformity, competition, helping and aggression (Markus, 1978). Whiles it may be true that the presence of others can improve performance, it is equally likely that performance of 15 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh individual countries may be constraint by belonging to such groups. This is because group level distractions and negative influences of bad company may hamper the drive of a country towards optimal production levels. 2.1.1.3 Institutional Theory Organisations in a particular industry tend to act and look same (DiMaggio & Powell, 1983). The concept of the theory is that the organizational structure and process help achieve their own right of effectiveness and efficiency in their desired outcomes through the goals and missions of the institution (Lincoln, 1995) Institutions have been defined as “regulative, normative, and cognitive structures and activities that provide stability and meaning for social behavior” (Scott, 1995). Institutions therefore exert three types of pressure on organizations; coercive, normative, and mimetic (DiMaggio & Powell, 1983). The theory posits that institutionalized activities occur due to influences on three levels: individual, organizational, and inter-organizational (Oliver, 1997). Whereas managers consciously and unconsciously follow the laid down processes or norms, customs and traditions at the individual organization level (Berger & Luckmann, 1991) shared political, social and cultural belief systems guide the behaviors of a group of organizations (Miles, 2012). At the inter-organizational level, pressure from government, affiliated persons, and society define what is socially acceptable and expected of parties in the institution which drives them to look and act the same (DiMaggio & Powell, 1983). Most institutional theories see local actors whether individuals, organizations, or national states as being affected by institutions in their environments. Individuals and organizations are affected by societal institutions, and national-states by a world society to effectively operate in a particular manner (Greenwood, Sage, & Sage, 2008). The theories has been applied in the social sciences, and especially in political science (March & Olsen, 1983), 16 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh economics (Alston, Eggerston, & North, 1996; Khalil, 1995; North, 1990) and in sociology (DiMaggio & Powell, 1983; Scott, 1995; Zucker, 1987). It can therefore be implied that the activities and ways of operation by individual countries in the intergovernmental organization will be very similar to that of other members. This is because countries will be more expected to follow the institutionalized behaviors of the organization. Therefore, if the institutionalized behaviors of a particular IGO is efficiency- improving, it is expected that all members will also enjoy similar levels of efficiency. Conversely, where institutionalized activities do not lead to higher performance, then all members in that particular IGO will suffer. Institutional theory therefore believes that the performance of members in a particular IGO will be very similar. 2.1.2 Inter-Group Performance Theories The theories on inter-group performance seeks to explain why the performance of different blocs of countries will differ. It is expected that the performance of individual IGOs will differ in the international oil industry. Therefore, two main theoretical views will be used to explain this possibility. These are the game theory (Von Neumann & Morgenstern, 1944) and the resource-based theory (Penrose, 1959). 2.1.2.1 Game Theory The theory explains decisions individuals or a group of players take in order to win a game when competing with one or more opponents (Von Neumann & Morgenstern, 1944). This theory describes the strategies employed by competitors in their choices of action that enhances their chances of gain or loss by considering the action being taking by their opponents (Miles, 2012). It basically examines the actions players make that decides the outcomes, gains or the optimal decision (Madhani, 2010; Rasmussen, 1989) 17 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh The game-theoretical approach studies systems with multiple self-interested parties with the aim of predicting the likely outcomes of the system under rational behavior of the players with mutual and possibly conflicting interests (Trestian, Ormond, & Muntean, 2012; Yin et al., 2012). In other words, game theory studies games, which are mathematical models of relationships and interactions among multiple players, each trying to advance their self- interest by choosing among a set of strategies (Weibull, 1997; Yin et al., 2012). It must be noted that, the theory provides useful mathematical tools necessary to understand the possible strategies that parties may follow when not only competing but also collaborating in games (Trestian et al., 2012; Weibull, 1997). The players seek to maximize their payoffs by choosing among alternative strategies that deploy actions depending on information available at a certain moment. Each player chooses strategies which can maximize their payoff (Trestian et al., 2012). Although originally adopted in economics, in order to model the competition between companies, it has found wide application in other areas, such as biology, accounting, management, finance, marketing, sociology, politics, international relations, philosophy, computer science, operations research and engineering (Miles, 2012; Trestian et al., 2012; Weibull, 1997). For example, in operations research, Huang (Huang & Li, 2001) applied game theoretical perspective of Stackelberg game to model and solve advertising problems in manufacturer-retailer supply chain problems. Although early understanding of game theory was developed to analyse competitions in which one individual does better at another's expense, zero sum games (von Neumann & Morgenstern, 1947), many equilibrium concepts have been developed and incorporated into the theory to handle situations where both or all parties benefits (Nash, 1996; Weibull, 1997). Among them is the famous Nash equilibrium, in an attempt to capture this idea (Nash, 1996). 18 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh The application of game theoretical ideologies in a variety of contexts, including policy- oriented ones, has become an important and expanding research area, particularly where institutions, including government are involved (Eleftheriadou, 2008; Frisvold & Caswell, 2000; O'Toole, 2004; Rigby, Dewick, Courtney, & Gee, 2013). This is probably as a result of the call by O'Toole (2004) for researchers in policy planning and implementation to recognize the importance of interaction between actors for successful policy implementation, and the use of game theory to understand the choices available to such policy actors. In the application of game theory to such governmental-backed intergovernmental institutions, both inter and intra-group dynamics of collaboration and competition among members can be explained. This has been summarized in Figure 2.1 that show various levels of collaboration among members of a particular IGO and other IGOs. This has been adapted from (Rigby et al., 2013) benchmarking options matrix. 19 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh Inter-Group Collaboration Low High Low exchange of information within Low exchange of information within and between groups results in: group renders between group collaboration irrelevant leading to: 1. Organizational learning not supported 1. Organizational learning not 2. Information asymmetries not supported addressed 2. Information asymmetries not addressed High exchange of information within High exchange of information within group but low exchange between and between group results in: group results in: 1. Organizational 1. Organizational learning/innovation learning/innovation 2. Information asymmetries 2. Information asymmetries not addressed addressed Figure 2.1: Outcomes of Inter and Intra Group Collaboration Source: adapted from (Rigby et al., 2013) In the bottom left box, where there is a high willingness to collaborate within a particular IGO but low level of cooperation between different IGOs, good intra-group efficiency can result and could benefit individual countries in terms of group learning which meets the objectives of good public policy. However, this will not address possible information asymmetries in policy that may foster achievement of Nash equilibrium or Pareto optimality between different IGOs. On the top left-hand and right-hand boxes, however, low levels of intra-group collaboration mean that, policy aimed enhancing inter-group efficiency will not be met sufficiently (Rigby et al., 2013). This is because, the low level of cooperation between members of a particular IGO will reduce the benefits of even high inter-group collaboration. (Rigby et al., 2013) believe that it is only when there is high intra-group and 20 Intra-Group Collaboration High Low University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh high inter-group collaboration that a true optimal point can be achieved. This is because, such collaboration will enhance organizational learning and reduce or remove such inter- group information asymmetries. The theoretical views of game theorists are therefore very important in assessing and understanding the competition and collaboration between various IGOs in the international oil industry. IGOs employ alternative strategies that may be a winning strategy with higher outcome in a particular situation it faces in the competitive environment. Individual member states tend to benefit or suffer in efficiency depending on not only the level of intra-group learning and cooperation, but also inter-group collaboration. 2.1.2.2 Resource-based Theory (RBT) Groups or organisations want to be seen or identified as unique based on the special competences and resources they possess. In short, the resource-based theory (RBT) studies the differences in outcomes in respect of their resources (Peteraf & Barney, 2003). The theory can be attributable to the early works of Penrose (1959) that theorized about how a firm’s resources influence its growth; in particular, where growth is constrained when resources are inadequate (Barney, Wright, & Ketchen Jr, 2001). Theory defines the organization’s uniqueness and position in competitive situations in the environment (Hoopes, Madsen, & Walker, 2003). Its emphasis is on differences in efficiency (Peteraf & Barney, 2003). The focus of the theory is how the organization acts against competitors on their strength, competence and resources that shows performance differences in the environment (Barney, 1991; Miles, 2012; Wernerfelt, 1984). Value, rarity, inimitability, and non-substitutability are among the commonly cited characteristics that provide the core logic linking resources to competitive advantage 21 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh (Sirmon, Hitt, Ireland, & Gilbert, 2011). The resource-based theory of strategy (RBT) hinges on the argument that firms with valuable, rare, special and inimitable resources have the potential of achieving superior performance (Amit & Schoemaker, 2012; Barney, 1991; Barney, 1995; Bharadwaj, 2000; Wiklund & Shepherd, 2003). RBT uses the internal characteristics and resources of firms to explain their heterogeneity in strategy and performance (Camisón & Villar-López, 2014). Basically, RBT assumes that there is underlying production heterogeneities or differences across firms (Barney, 1991; Dobbin & Baum, 2000; Peteraf, 1993). Thus production processes and resources are different from firm to firm. Therefore, firms endowed with such superior resources are able to produce more economically and/or better satisfy customer wants (Peteraf, 1993). Heterogeneity in this context also implies that firms of varying capabilities are able to compete in the same marketplace and, at least, breakeven (Dobbin & Baum, 2000; Peteraf, 1993). Accordingly, the main assumption of RBT is that only firms with certain resources and capabilities with special characteristics will gain competitive advantage and, therefore, achieve superior performance (Camisón & Villar-López, 2014). This is therefore a theory of competitive advantage (Barney, 2001) since the central theme is that privately held knowledge (or resource) is the basic source of advantage in competition (Conner & Prahalad, 1996). A resource-based approach to firm management focuses on costly–to-copy attributes of the firm as sources of economic rent and therefore as the fundamental drivers of performance and competitive advantage (Barney, 1986; Conner & Prahalad, 1996; Rumelt, 1974). In resource-based theory, such resources may be financial, human, intangible, organizational, physical or technological (Dobbin & Baum, 2000). Indeed, (Miller & Shamsie, 1996) broadly separated these resource into knowledge based and those that are property-based resources. 22 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh In early conceptions, the RBT emphasized how variation in firms’ access to key factor inputs could lead to variation in firm performance (Barney, 1991; Wernerfelt, 1984). However, subsequent extensions include a broader focus including competence-based view (Foss, 1996), commitment (Ghemawat, 1991), dynamic capabilities (Teece & Pisano, 1994; Teece, Pisano, & Shuen, 1997), knowledge-based (Foss, 1996), relation-based (Dyer & Singh, 1998), and attention-based (Ocasio, 1997) approaches. The resource based view generally addresses performance differences between firms using asymmetry in knowledge and in associated competences or capabilities (Amit & Schoemaker, 2012; Conner, 1991; Henderson & Cockburn, 1994; Peteraf, 1993). This theory is mostly unique to the field of strategic management (Conner & Prahalad, 1996; Peteraf, 1993), although some extensions and applications have been made to related areas like neoclassical microeconomics and evolutionary economics (Barney, 2001). The RBT is undoubtedly consistent with and well rooted squarely in the policy research tradition (Barney, Ketchen, & Wright, 2011; Peteraf, 1993) and hence very important in explaining issues related to inter-organizational performance differences. This theory of the firm therefore believes that, the way a firm is organized, when combined with firm resources, can better enhance the positive relationship between resources and firm performance (Barney, 1995; Wiklund & Shepherd, 2003). Decades of empirical work have given ample support to the importance of these resource characteristics for firm performance (Crook, Ketchen, Combs, & Todd, 2008; Sirmon et al., 2011) and is widely acknowledged as one of the most prominent and powerful theories for describing, explaining, and predicting organizational relationships (Barney et al., 2011). Therefore, in the context of this study, when an IGO is considered as the unit of analysis, it stands to reason that the unique competencies and resources of members of the particular IGO will give it competitive advantages over other relevant IGOs in the international oil industry. Size of 23 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh oil and gas reserves, human, technical and technological competencies of member states, political and economic bargaining powers are all relevant tangible and intangible resources that an IGO may use to out-compete others. RBT therefore believes that IGOs with such higher levels of resources will be more efficient. 2.2 Empirical Review The empirical review presents an overview of peer-reviewed studies on efficiency, performance and productivity of various parties in the oil and gas industry. Extent of knowledge on efficiency of countries, oil firms, drilling blocks as well as intergovernmental organisations have been presented in a manner that will provide adequate understanding of the extent of literature. Review of frontier efficiency papers in the oil industry are based on Appendix B which provides a taxonomy of these papers reviewed. On the other hand, a taxonomy of papers on efficiency of intergovernmental organizations has been presented in Appendix A. 2.2.1 Frontier Efficiency in the Oil Industry There has been quite a number of efficiency-related research in the oil and gas industry, substantially among the issues are ownership, privatization, environmental efficiency, international comparison, regulation and state intervention. For example, Al-Obaidan and Scully (1995); Ike and Lee (2014); Sueyoshi and Goto (2012a); Wolf (2009) have assessed ownership and efficiency of firms in the industry. The focus of these studies is to understand the differences in the efficiency of state-owned and privately owned oil firms. Closely related to this theme are papers on privatization, government regulation and government intervention (Hawdon, 2003; Kashani, 2005b; Price & Weyman-Jones, 1996). Their focus is to examine the influence of various levels of government involvement in the oil and gas 24 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh industry and its effects on efficiency of players in the industry. Empirically, the role of government in the industry has been quite adverse, from the negative effects of state ownership (Eller et al., 2011; Ike & Lee, 2014) to the potential for efficiency gains when government influence is removed (Kashani, 2005b; Price & Weyman-Jones, 1996). Another important theme for assessment is the issue of environmental efficiency. Francisco et al. (2012); Ismail et al. (2013); Sueyoshi and Goto (2012a) have measured efficiency by incorporating harmful by-products of oil and gas exploration, distribution and consumption activities such as CO2 emissions, and transmission losses. For, Barros and Antunes (2014); Managi et al. (2006) their focus was on technological change, productivity change and comparison of Malmquist and Luenberger indices. Growth Accounting and Productivity Methods have also been investigated by Barros and Managi (2009b) and Thompson et al. (1994). Thompson et al. (1994) explored the integration of DEA and other methods like Assurance Region (AR) and Cone Ratio (CR) in assessing efficiency and performance of international oil companies. Indeed, there have been a number of conceptual papers dedicated to improving the methodology used in such benchmarking (Sueyoshi & Goto, 2012a; Thompson, Dharmapala, Humphrey, Taylor, & Thrall, 1996). Finally, since this study does international comparison of the oil and gas supply activities of various countries, it is encouraging that some studies have previously attempted such international comparison. Hawdon (2003); Kim et al. (1999) have all attempted such comparison, except that all two studies only focussed on gas distribution to the neglect of crude oil. Similarly, these two papers that have attempted international comparison only focussed on the downstream oil and gas industry. Although the body of literature in the oil and gas industry is substantial, this is rarely done an international benchmarking and in a more aggregated context or mainly geared towards the upstream operations. However very few studies are dedicated to cross country and regional efficiency in the downstream. These 25 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh includes Hawdon (2003) who analysed the efficiency of 33 countries gas industry, and Kim et al. (1999) who examined 28 natural gas transmission and distribution companies operating in 8 countries. The various approaches employed in estimating efficiency in the oil and gas industry extends a number of methods including parametric and non–parametric analysis. DEA, a non-parametric technique, and its variations have been largely used in most of the literature for example by Ismail et al. (2013); Sueyoshi and Goto (2012a) who used the method to measure environmental efficiency of 19 and 17 upstream oil firms respectively. Ike and Lee (2014) used the slacks-based measure which is a variant of the DEA non-parametric method. Whiles Barros and Assaf (2009); Hawdon (2003) have applied DEA together with the bootstrapping techniques. Other studies like Al-Obaidan and Scully (1995); Managi et al. (2006) have found support in the use of parametric efficiency techniques like SFA and Aigner and Chu deterministic frontier which require several assumptions which are sometime unrealistic in a real-world contexts (Chase, 2012). For some, a methodology that combines a number of techniques have been seen to provide a more complementary result. Ike and Lee (2014) combined DEA, Malmquist Productivity Index and Regression to assess 38 upstream oil companies. Eller et al. (2011) estimated efficiency differences of 78 upstream oil firms with DEA and SFA. Similarly, Kim et al. (1999); Lee, Kim, and Park (1996) applied Edgeworth Index and ANOVA, and Multilateral Tornqvist, Managerial Index, System Analysis, and non-parametric efficiency analysis to examine 28 Natural Gas transmission and distribution companies operating in 8 countries. Whereas the diversity of methods used in these assessments are quite appreciable, none of the papers reviewed used methods that adequately cater for group differences (heterogeneities) in estimating the frontier efficiency. Methods like metafrontier analysis, global frontier differences are loudly missing in the literature. 26 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 2.2.2 Group Performance and Efficiency The extant studies regarding group performance and efficiency of IGOs has been heavily skewed towards banking, energy efficiency, and health. For example, whereas Abu-Alkheil, Burghof, and Khan (2012) concentrated on bank efficiency of OAPEC and Gulf Cooperation Countries (GCC), Casu and Girardone (2004, 2006); Casu and Molyneux (2003); Claeys and Vander Vennet (2008); Marius Andrieş and Căpraru (2012), Košak, Zajc, and Zorić (2009); Mamatzakis, Staikouras, and Koutsomanoli-Filippaki (2008) looked at bank efficiency in the European Union (EU). Others worthy of mention are Behname (2012) who examined banking efficiency among OPEC countries and Drakos (2003) who considered same in the FSU and Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. Just like banking, several studies can be cited for energy efficiency (Adetutu, 2014; Al‐Rashed & León, 2015; Filippini & Hunt, 2011; Goldthau & Witte, 2011) and health (Adler-Milstein, Ronchi, Cohen, Winn, & Jha, 2014; Al-Essa, Al-Rubaie, Walker, & Salek, 2015; Oderkirk, Ronchi, & Klazinga, 2013; Retzlaff-Roberts, Chang, & Rubin, 2004). Other research issues like education (Afonso & St Aubyn, 2005; Afonso & St. Aubyn, 2006; Krishnasamy & Ahmed, 2009) economy (Arestis, Chortareas, & Desli, 2006; Fare, Grosskopf, Norris, & Zhang, 1994; Krishnasamy & Ahmed, 2009), agriculture, (Arnade, 1994; Gorton & Davidova, 2004; Vlontzos, Niavis, & Manos, 2014), insurance (Donni & Fecher, 1997), railways (Oum & Yu, 1994), postal service, environment and policy (Selowsky & Martin, 1997) have also been considered by other studies. Generally, although these studies see several differences in the level of efficiency of individual members of various IGOs (Oderkirk et al., 2013; Vlontzos et al., 2014) some particular IGOs have been seen to experience modest improvements in efficiency. For example Adetutu (2014) observed that some selected OPEC countries have modest energy efficiency arising from subsidy effect and artificially low energy prices. This 27 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh notwithstanding, little is known about efficiency of these IGOs with respect to oil and gas production and supply efficiency. Even studies who purposely targeted oil-focussed IGOs like OPEC, OAPEC, FSU and IEA (Adetutu, 2014; Al‐Rashed & León, 2015; Behname, 2012; Goldthau & Witte, 2011) rather looked at issues like banking efficiency and energy efficiency which has nothing to do with oil and gas production and supply efficiency. Studies that have come close to examining supply efficiency include Dike (2013) who looked at security in energy exportation of OPEC countries and Ramcharran (2002) who examined efficiency and production responses to price changes in the international oil industry. When the focus of the review is shifted to which IGOs have attracted substantial research interest, interesting insights are revealed. To aid in this assessment, Figure 2.2 has graphically presented the distribution of research on the various IGOs. This is based on the taxonomy in Appendix A. ASEAN AU CEE EU FSU G20 G8 GCC IEA OAPEC OECD OPEC UN IGO Figure 2.2: Distribution of Efficiency Studies by IGO Source: Fieldwork (2015) 28 Frequency 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh Quite evident in Figure 2.2 is that for the papers reviewed, OECD has attracted the most research interest with as many as 15 studies purposely studying this IGO individually or together with other IGOs. For example, Afonso and St Aubyn (2005); Çakır, Perçin, Min, and Gunasekaran (2015); Fare et al. (1994); Hori (2012); Krishnasamy and Ahmed (2009); Oderkirk et al. (2013) have all looked at various dimensions of efficiency in OECD countries. EU and OPEC follow with 12 papers and 7 papers respectively. Bosseboeuf, Chateau, and Lapillonne (1997); Casu and Girardone (2004); Casu and Molyneux (2003); Claeys and Vander Vennet (2008); Marius Andrieş and Căpraru (2012) looked at EU whiles Adetutu (2014); Behname (2012); Dike (2013); Goldthau and Witte (2011); Ramcharran (2002); Sari and Soytas (2009) focused their attention on OPEC countries. At the bottom are G20, G8 and ASEAN who recorded only one paper each. It must be clearly noted that FSU, OAPEC and IEA who are among the IGOs to be considered in this study are among those which have seen few research interest from the review. Insights on their efficiency will clearly add to the existing body of knowledge in these IGOs. From the taxonomy in Appendix A, it is also evident that most studies on IGOs concentrate on one particular IGO in their assessment. Gorton and Davidova (2004); Muldoon et al. (2011); Shahabinejad, Mehrjerdi, and Yaghoubi (2013); Taylor, d’Ortigue, Francoeur, and Trudeau (2010) have concentrated on intra-group performance assessment considering efficiency only in that particular IGO of interest. A few studies like Abu-Alkheil et al. (2012); Aristovnik (2012); Drakos (2003); Selowsky and Martin (1997) have based their research arguments on samples comprising two or more IGOs. However, among these studies whose samples cut across various IGOs, there has been little inter-group comparison to identify and rank IGOs with respect to a particular phenomenon understudy. There is therefore room for this study to build literature by not only conducting intra-group assessment, but also an inter-group performance assessment which is lacking in literature. 29 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh Finally, the focus is on the methods used in the assessment and whether these methods adequately cater for group heterogeneities. In assessing the performance and efficiency of groups (IGOs), several models relating to the issue of international comparisons and frontier efficiency have been applied. Abu-Alkheil et al. (2012) used DEA to determine banks efficiency in OAPEC and GCC countries between 2005 and 2008. Arestis et al. (2006) applied it to 26 OECD Countries from 1963 to 1992. Afonso and St Aubyn (2005) used both DEA and FDH to estimate the education and health efficiencies of 24 OECD countries. Others like Filippini and Hunt (2011) determined the energy efficiency of 29 OECD countries for 28 years period from1978 to 2006 using SFA. Košak et al. (2009); Mamatzakis et al. (2008) estimated bank efficiency in 5 New EU Member States from 1996 – 2006 and 10 EU countries from 1998–2003 respectively, using the SFA approach. Regression-based estimation approaches like the Translog Cost Function (Adetutu, 2014; Claeys & Vander Vennet, 2008) and Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) (Sari & Soytas, 2009) have also seen some considerable use. Whereas all these techniques have their own advantages and disadvantages, it is important that papers that compare various groups use models that can adequately cater for group differences in estimating the efficiency. From the review, only Krishnasamy and Ahmed (2009) used the Metafrontier approach to measure the efficiency and productivity of the economies of twenty six (26) OECD countries from 1980 to 2008. Their paper does not even conduct inter-IGO comparison since the focus was only on OECD. Most of the reviewed literature employed in this study have applied a number of models, some in combination to estimate efficiency of groups or IGOs. But there is rare evidence regarding Global or Meta frontier analysis in the international oil and gas industry. Hence there is enough gap for this paper to situate in efficiency assessment the use of models that adequately cater for such group differences in the estimation of efficiency. 30 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 2.3 Conceptual Framework The process of analysis and assessment of the objectives of this study will follow the Cooper Framework of Emrouznejad and De Witte (2010) which clearly shows the interrelated phases any DEA-based assessment should follow. This is illustrated in Figure 2.3. PHASES IN DEA PROJECT Concepts and 2 On Structuring Data Objectives 1 3 Operational Models DMU 4 Performance 6 Results and Comparison Models Deployment 5 Evaluation Figure 2.3: The Cooper Conceptual Framework Source: Emrouznejad and De Witte (2010) 31 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh This framework defines the issues and how to understand the processes of decision making units. The first and second phases (the concept and objectives, and the on structuring data) is the problem identification and research objectives captured in the first chapter of this study. The fourth and fifth phases show the outcome and documentation, which is dealt with by the analysis and discussions chapter of this work. Note that there is a link between the evaluation stage and the first phase. The evaluation must be closely linked to the concept and objectives of the study. The middle phases determines the model that is more suitable to best analyse the research issue. The interrelationship of the framework allows for feedback thus connecting phases. Note also that the first letter of each stage make up the acronym “COOPER”. On this background the Cooper Framework with respect to the current study are summarised below: 2.4 Conclusion The chapter provided ample theoretical and empirical grounding for the study. Theoretically, established theories of Social Network Theory, Social Facilitation Theory and Institutional Theory were used to explain intra-group performance while game theory and resource-based theory were used for inter-group performance. Empirical work of frontier efficiency-related studies in the international oil industry as well as a general synopsis of efficiency studies that target IGOs were also presented. Based on these, the Cooper Framework is conceptually presented to aid in this research process. 32 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh CHAPTER THREE CONTEXT OF STUDY 3.0 Introduction Crude oil is a critical global resource in the economy of nations and an indispensable commodity in socio-economic, political and environmental priorities in the world today (Armaroli & Balzani, 2007; Asif & Muneer, 2007; Holdren, 2006; Igos et al., 2015). States establish agreement between them for socio-economic development but sometimes are unable to resolve the different interest of the individual members which affect them; therefore the formation of supra-national political authorities – IGOs (Bennett & Oliver, 2002; Park, 2015). IGOs are important channels for enhancing socio cultural development, affinities, trust, improved economic development, trade, technology and information among member countries (Ingram, Robinson, & Busch, 2005; Park, 2015). This section will provide an overview of the major IGOs in the international oil industry. The demand and supply of oil affects the relationship between major oil exporting and importing countries (Yergin, 1991). The supply and sale of oil have created interdependencies in the international oil industry and among nations (Strange, 1989). The study of IGOs have increased over the past centuries due to their importance to global economy and social interaction between states (Barnett & Finnemore, 1999; Cao, 2009; Volgy, Fausett, Grant, & Rodgers, 2008). IGOs may be categorized as political economic IGOs, social/cultural welfare IGOs, environmental IGOs, and governance and defence IGOs (Gomez & Parigi, 2013). The IGOs under study are political economic IGOs. These political economic IGOs address issues affecting trade, economic regulations and commence among member states (Alcacer & Ingram, 2013). These organisations bring together complementary skills and create platforms for innovation and creativity and make full use 33 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh of the available resources to provide sustainable development for the member nations. This study also presents the relevance of IGOs in the international oil and gas industry. 3.1 International Oil and Gas Supply and Demand Oil and gas have increased the multifaceted cross boarder relationship of countries in relations to production, consumption, regulatory influences, financial transactions and security of nations (Jones, 1995). Oil, one of the most important among other sources of energy, is critical to countries’ economies due to its universal use as fuel to feed manufacturing, industrial production, as well as the transportation sectors (Murphy & Hall, 2011b). Crude oil production and supply also have an impact on the global economy and countries’ socio economic development therefore countries are very interested in crude oil reserves. This section reviews the major countries in terms of proven reserves, production and consumption. 3.1.1 Proven Oil and Gas Reserves Oil and Gas reserves constitute an important dimension that can determine the potential political power of a country in the international oil industry. This is simply the potential capacity of hydrocarbons buried inland that may be extracted in the future. Proven reserves are quantities of petroleum buried underground which by geological analysis and engineering data can be estimated with high confidence to be commercially recoverable from a certain time period, from known reservoirs and under current economic conditions (CIA, 2014). Therefore, the more reserves a country possess, the higher the potential of extracting them and the higher the political power this country has over other importing nations. Table 3.1 presents a summary of the top 11 countries in terms of crude oil proved reserves for 4 different years -2000, 2007, 2013 and 2014. Average values, also reported in 34 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh the table, are for the entire period from 2000 to 2014. Regional statistics are also presented in the table. Table 3.1: Crude Oil Proved Reserves (Billion Barrels) 2000 2007 2013 2014 Average 1 Saudi Arabia 263.50 262.30 267.91 268.35 264.23 2 Canada 4.93 179.21 173.11 173.20 142.48 3 Venezuela 72.60 80.01 297.57 297.74 128.21 4 Iran 89.70 136.27 154.58 157.30 126.09 5 Iraq 112.50 115.00 141.35 140.30 119.65 6 Kuwait 96.50 101.50 104.00 104.00 101.33 7 United Arab Emirates 97.80 97.80 97.80 97.80 97.80 8 Russia 48.57 60.00 80.00 80.00 60.38 9 Libya 29.50 41.46 48.01 48.47 39.53 10 Nigeria 22.50 36.22 37.20 37.14 32.25 11 United States 23.17 22.31 33.40 36.52 25.02 World 1018.18 1318.00 1648.86 1655.56 1319.55 Middle East 675.64 739.20 802.16 803.60 738.34 North America 56.50 213.87 216.77 219.79 182.53 Central & South America 89.53 102.80 325.93 328.26 151.43 Africa 74.89 114.07 127.74 126.73 104.11 Eurasia 57.00 98.89 118.89 118.89 87.56 Asia & Oceania 43.99 33.37 45.36 46.01 39.76 Europe 20.64 15.80 12.02 12.28 15.81 Source: EIA (2015) All values in Table 3.1 are measured in billions of barrels. Values from 2014 reveal that, out of the over 1.656 trillion barrels of crude oil reserves that have not been extracted in the world, Saudi Arabia possess more than 16% of these reserves making it the highest ranked nation. The country’s economy remains heavily dependent on petroleum since petroleum exports accounts for 85% of total export revenues in 2013 (OPEC, 2014). The country holds approximately 268 billion barrels of proved oil reserves. Although Saudi Arabia has about 100 major oil and gas fields, more than half of its oil reserves are contained in eight fields in the northeast portion of the country (EIA, 2014). Looking at the average reserves since 2000, Saudi Arabia (264.23bbls) is followed by Canada (142.48bbls), Venezuela (128.21bbls) and Iran (126.09bbls). Other notable mentions on this list are Libya and 35 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh Nigeria, both of which are African countries, who placed 9th and 10th respectively. Finally, the United States has about 25.02 billion barrels of proven crude oil reserves buried especially in the Texas, North Dakota, Gulf of Mexico, Alaska and California (EIA, 2014). Close to half of the countries in this list are Middle Eastern countries – Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE. It is therefore not surprising that most of the world’s proven reserves are found in this region. About 738.34 billion barrels of crude oil, on average, are buried in this location. Given the potential importance of this region, it is not surprising the several political instability in the region since ownership of land is a marker of a strong bargaining power in the world oil and gas supply (EIA, 2014). On the other side of the table is Europe with the smallest crude reserves of about 15.18 billion barrels. This means that Europe is expected to be a major importer of oil products from other regions. Values for natural gas reserves are presented in Table 3.2. Table 3.2: Proved Reserves of Natural Gas (Trillion Cubic Feet) 2000 2007 2013 2014 Average 1 Russia 1700.00 1680.00 1688.00 1688.00 1683.73 2 Iran 812.30 974.00 1187.00 1193.00 976.90 3 Qatar 300.00 910.50 890.00 885.29 773.97 4 Saudi Arabia 204.50 240.00 287.84 290.81 248.22 5 United States 167.41 211.09 308.04 338.26 236.81 6 United Arab Emirates 212.00 214.40 215.03 215.04 214.50 7 Nigeria 124.00 181.90 182.00 180.74 165.40 8 Venezuela 142.50 152.38 195.10 196.41 164.42 9 Algeria 159.70 161.74 159.05 159.10 159.65 10 Turkmenistan 101.00 100.00 265.00 265.00 147.07 11 Iraq 109.80 112.00 111.52 111.52 111.03 World 5149.96 6190.88 6845.17 6972.52 6152.82 Middle East 1749.24 2566.04 2823.23 2812.83 2443.42 Eurasia 1977.00 2014.80 2177.80 2177.80 2039.65 Africa 394.57 485.81 514.81 605.96 475.86 Asia & Oceania 363.47 419.59 521.46 540.38 449.26 North America 261.34 283.59 393.43 422.06 315.03 Central & South America 222.66 240.75 268.92 277.62 256.15 Europe 181.69 180.30 145.52 135.87 173.46 Source: EIA (2015) 36 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh Unlike crude oil, majority of the world’s natural gas reserves are held by Russia (1683 cf). This is followed by Iran (976.90 Tcf), Qatar (773.97 Tcf), Saudi Arabia (248.22 Tcf) and United States (236.81 Tcf). Russia's economy is highly dependent on its hydrocarbons, since oil and natural gas revenues account for more than 50% of the federal budget revenues (EIA, 2014). Most of the top crude oil reserve countries are still in the natural gas list, except that Qatar, and Turkmenistan are fresh additions when it comes to natural gas. Middle East continues to dominate natural gas reserves with about 2443.42 Tcf of natural gas which represents about 39.7% of the world’s value. Europe is also at the bottom of this list when regional blocks are compared. Figure 3.1 shows the trend of world oil and gas reserves from 1980 to 2014. Note that Natural gas reserves are converted from trillions of cubic feets to billions of barrel equivalent in order to ensure comparison. The graph clearly shows that both resources have seen an upward spiral in volumes over the years. It is possible that the invent of more advanced technologies have increased the probability of discovery. Oil reserves are also seen to mostly out-number equivalent gas reserves globally over this period. 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 YEAR Oil Reserves (Billion Barrels) Natural Gas Reserves (Billion Barrels Equivalent) Figure 3.1: Oil and Gas Reserve Trends Source: EIA (2015) 37 BILLIONS OF BARREL EQUIVALENTS University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 3.1.2 Oil and Gas Supply The supply and sale of oil and gas have created interdependencies in the international oil industry and among nations (Strange, 1989). This affects the relationship between major oil exporting and importing countries (Yergin, 1991). The growth of most countries’ economies is highly related to the supply of oil (Murphy & Hall, 2011a). Table 3.3 presents a summary of the major oil supplying countries for the years 2000, 2007, 2013 and 2014. Also presented in the table are average values for the entire period from 2000 to 2014. Regional statistics are also reported. It must be noted that total oil supply takes into consideration crude oil, natural gas and other hydrocarbons from oil and gas extraction. The values of all the supplies are in thousands of barrels per day. Table 3.3: Total Oil Supply (Thousand Barrels Per Day) 2000 2007 2013 2014 Average 1 Saudi Arabia 9475.75 10748.62 11701.51 11623.70 10729.72 2 United States 9057.78 8469.40 12342.77 14020.82 9640.82 3 Russia 6723.64 9938.18 10757.91 10847.10 9422.16 4 China 3377.53 3953.86 4561.12 4598.05 3984.01 5 Iran 3765.39 4039.03 3194.30 3376.61 3890.54 6 Canada 2753.14 3448.52 4073.07 4383.32 3375.41 7 Mexico 3460.09 3500.29 2915.07 2811.93 3337.80 8 United Arab Emirates 2572.33 2947.50 3443.71 3473.71 2921.25 9 Venezuela 3460.76 2681.99 2684.55 2684.55 2813.37 10 Norway 3354.61 2564.89 1845.05 1904.38 2639.58 11 Kuwait 2200.73 2603.43 2798.64 2767.20 2519.99 World 77725.45 85130.47 91014.47 93201.09 84960.21 Middle East 23484.22 25286.09 27472.12 27836.48 25482.40 North America 15271.01 15418.22 19330.91 21216.06 16354.03 Eurasia 8184.70 12687.58 13782.08 13905.19 11909.59 Africa 7989.70 10485.50 9296.44 8707.23 9447.15 Asia & Oceania 8316.46 8537.09 9199.47 9257.79 8697.19 Central & South America 7313.03 7270.57 8120.31 8408.39 7513.66 Europe 7166.34 5445.43 3813.14 3869.95 5556.19 Source: EIA (2015) Values of the average oil supply for the period show that of the 84960.21 thousand barrels of oil supplied daily, Saudi Arabia supplies the highest volumes of 10729.72 thousand b/d. 38 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh The United States follows in second place with 9640.82 thousand b/d even though the US is a major importer of oil (EIA, 2013). Studying the averages, China who is also another substantial importer of oil comes forth with 3984.01 thousand b/d, after Russia (9422.16 thousand b/d), whiles Iran (3890.54 thousand b/d) and Canada (3375.41 thousand b/d) follow thereafter. When the regional dynamics are carefully examined, it is obvious that the Middle East region as a whole has the highest supply volumes with 25482.40 thousand b/d, followed by North America (16354.03 thousand b/d), Eurasia (11909.59 thousand b/d), Africa (3944.15 thousand b/d) and at the bottom is Europe (5556.19 thousand b/d). Total supply may have substantial portions going to domestic markets, therefore the export volumes of both crude oil and gas productions are examined in Tables 3.4 and 3.5 respectively. Table 3.4: Exports of Crude Oil (Thousand Barrels Per Day) 2000 2007 2013 2014 Average 1 Saudi Arabia 6444.00 6968.74 7477.62 7657.93 6888.47 2 Russia 3150.00 5171.58 4892.29 4807.16 4633.31 3 Iran 2309.13 2617.63 2207.42 1401.93 2296.23 4 Norway 3070.00 2012.96 1446.17 1324.11 2251.34 5 Nigeria 2069.18 2120.22 2402.46 2410.57 2162.14 6 United Arab Emirates 1870.00 2289.44 2365.56 2427.59 2113.94 7 Canada 1590.77 1958.06 2338.78 2469.65 1901.58 8 Venezuela 2094.30 2224.72 1253.00 1357.94 1777.36 9 Iraq 2071.66 1617.92 2175.50 2427.72 1740.57 10 Mexico 1763.67 1792.67 1364.73 1280.22 1712.24 11 Kuwait 1316.81 1645.49 1776.96 1824.15 1520.90 World 40326.98 43699.35 43654.98 44104.95 42519.52 Middle East 16242.62 16771.29 18153.22 17806.84 16622.4 Africa 5941.996 7602.513 7395.989 8142.392 7134.349 Eurasia 3826.214 6861.941 7204.251 7119.682 6211.378 Europe 5475.625 3524.847 2513.65 2465.82 3893.751 North America 3457.058 3879.033 4037.696 4149.29 3767.773 Central & South America 3105.631 3409.887 2921.627 2997.834 3038.199 Asia & Oceania 2277.831 1649.84 1428.556 1423.092 1851.666 Source: EIA (2015) 39 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh Most oil producing countries depend on the export of the product for the growth of their economy. Table 3.4 presents the total crude oil export of major oil producing countries for 2000, 2007, 2013 and 2014 and statistics from the regional blocks. The values of the average crude oil exported are in thousands of barrels per day. Of the 42519.52 thousand barrels exported throughout the world daily, Saudi Arabia is the highest exporter, distributing about 6888.47 thousand b/d especially to the Asia and Pacific areas (OPEC, 2015). It supplies about 4417 thousand barrels per day to the Asia and Pacific region, 1251 thousand b/d to North America and 952, 273 and 191 thousand barrels daily to the Europe, Middle East and Africa respectively (OPEC, 2015) The remainder goes to several other locations globally. The country’s export accounted for 85% of the total earning in 2013 (EIA, 2014). Russia’s exports of 4633.31 thousand b/d accounts for about 50% of the country’s GDP. Iran comes third with 2296.23 thousand b/d. The world crude oil export is dominated by the Middle East with countries like Saudi Arabia and Iran exporting (9184.78 thousand b/d). They are followed by Africa making up 7134.349 thousand b/d. The Asia and Oceania region is the least exporter of crude oil (1851.666 thousand b/d). 40 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh Table 3.5: Exports of Natural Gas (Billion Cubic Feet) 2000 2007 2013 2014 Average 1 Russia 6590.49 8232.99 7176.01 7801.08 7378.55 2 Canada 3575.50 3843.83 3117.96 2911.72 3530.07 3 Norway 1727.26 3011.66 3878.65 3629.89 2932.40 4 Algeria 2213.54 2061.34 1771.40 1518.55 2009.02 5 Qatar 495.82 1536.20 4400.25 4432.03 1977.09 6 Netherlands 1462.68 1965.92 2133.34 2375.57 1937.41 7 Turkmenistan 1380.82 1744.56 1624.49 2147.15 1486.00 8 Indonesia 1279.11 1295.71 1241.32 1105.36 1289.86 9 Malaysia 780.11 1107.48 1157.27 1250.15 1018.13 10 United States 244.00 822.00 1619.00 1572.00 915.07 11 Australia 362.05 688.36 924.79 1150.00 631.13 World 22978.03 33262.21 37409.38 38301.79 31107.92 Eurasia 8571.66 10927.49 9809.41 11077.96 9724.80 Europe 4050.77 6232.14 7961.59 7892.69 6182.49 North America 3827.98 4716.43 4739.82 4484.85 4459.25 Asia & Oceania 2881.70 3848.66 4233.10 4465.83 3665.44 Africa 2444.15 3883.52 3561.41 2996.87 3225.82 Middle East 841.56 2487.51 5619.39 5767.19 2851.40 Central & South America 360.21 1166.45 1484.64 1616.40 1049.77 Source: EIA (2015) Table 3.5 shows the major exporters of natural gas. Gas represents a substantial source of energy production in the world. Most countries producing this product export it for improvement of their economies and for social economic development. This table shows the top gas exporting countries in the years 2000, 2007, 20013 and 2014. The values are reported in billions of cubic feet. The average total world export stands at 31107.92 bcf with Russia being the highest exporter (7378.55 bcf) after which Canada (3530.07) Norway (2932.40 bcf) and Algeria (2009.02 bcf) follow by Qatar (1977.09 bcf) from Middle East comes 5th with the United States (915.07 bcf) and Australia (631.13bcf) placing 10th and 11th respectively. The export of gas by regions is dominated by Eurasia accounting for (31107.92 bcf) followed by Europe (9724.80 bcf) and the North America (4459.25 bcf). Africa, Middle 41 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh East, Central and South America represent the least exporting regions with less than 3500 bcf each. 3.1.2 Oil and Gas Consumption Increase in oil and gas consumption is highly linked with economic growth (Murphy & Hall, 2011b). About half of economic changes in most countries can be explain by oil consumption (Cleveland et al., 1997). Countries with high GDP have been noted to have a high correlation with increases in oil consumption (Murphy & Hall, 2011a). Table 3.6 reveals the pattern of the world’s largest consumers of petroleum in 2000, 2007, 2012 and 2013. All values represented here are in thousands of barrels per day. Table 3.6: Total Petroleum Consumption (Thousand Barrels Per Day) 2000 2007 2012 2013 Average 1 United States 19701.1 20680.4 18490.2 18961.1 19759 2 China 4795.71 7479.92 10175.1 10480 7139.47 3 Japan 5480.14 5009.22 4697.33 4556.81 5000.42 4 Russia 2578.5 2885.1 3445.1 3493 2891.1 5 India 2147.44 2888.06 3617.85 3660 2791.68 6 Germany 2766.76 2406.69 2389.13 2435.08 2576.51 7 Brazil 2121.28 2296.55 2922.93 3003 2343.19 8 Canada 2007.72 2389.48 2402.8 2374.45 2236.61 9 Korea, South 2135.33 2240.48 2321.62 2328.3 2195.31 10 Saudi Arabia 1537.1 2094.33 2881.65 2961 2111.7 11 Mexico 2095.93 2172.79 2101.38 2090.45 2092.78 World 76927.6 86788.2 90391.8 91253.2 84523.5 Asia & Oceania 20871.9 25474.6 29761.9 30123.7 25082.8 North America 23812.5 25255.2 23006.5 23438.2 24051.1 Europe 15924.3 16245.8 14409.8 14233.2 15716.9 Middle East 4896.88 6523.07 7996.98 8083.49 6463.56 Central & South America 5191.71 5918.85 6963.32 7085.22 5952.34 Eurasia 3719.74 4259.88 4644.3 4688.6 4162.05 Africa 2510.57 3110.9 3608.9 3600.71 3094.73 42 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh Two of the largest economies in the world top with United States, the world largest economy, leading with 19759.04 thousand barrels per day, followed China’s 7139.47 thousand barrels per day. China’s average consumption levels is about 36.13% of that the United States. However, a closer look at the values by year show that China’s consumption level is gradually closing up to that of the US. Given the populous nature of these two countries, it is not exactly surprising that they have higher consumption levels. Not also surprising is the fact that Russia and India are all among the top consumers of petroleum due to their land mass and population. The regional representation by oil consumption is largely dominated by Asia and Oceania region accounting for 25082.8 thousand barrels per day. This is followed by North America with 24051.1 thousand barrels per day. Europe consumption of 15716.9 thousands barrels per day is also not surprising given this region’s relatively lower possession of oil and gas reserves as seen in earlier sections of this chapter. In Table 3.7, the major consumers of natural gas around the world are presented. Again the United States is the highest in this regard accounting for 23323.79 bcf out of the world’s total average of 108458.90 bcf. Iran accounts for 3985.98 bcf after Russia (14563.48 bcf). United Kingdom, Germany and Italy all Europeans are all among the substantial consumers of gas, albeit in the bottom half with an average of 19168.41 bcf. 43 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh Table 3.7: Dry Natural Gas Consumption (Billion Cubic Feet) 2000 2007 2013 2014 Average 1 United States 23333.00 23104.00 25538.00 26168.00 23323.79 2 Russia 13058.78 15180.86 15710.94 15598.99 14563.48 3 Iran 2220.96 3992.01 5553.95 5555.58 3985.98 4 Japan 2913.91 3748.09 4471.94 4492.35 3574.33 5 United Kingdom 3373.29 3244.04 2752.06 2734.90 3209.28 6 Canada 2991.36 3050.51 3541.28 3654.78 3176.84 7 Germany 3098.11 3142.61 3001.21 3123.44 3162.80 8 Italy 2498.36 2998.14 2645.62 2474.49 2762.09 9 Saudi Arabia 1759.04 2628.14 3507.84 3532.56 2631.55 10 China 867.05 2489.71 5073.92 5760.12 2615.09 11 Ukraine 2779.29 2906.42 1861.10 1659.81 2505.40 World 87236.66 105545.38 119696.29 121357.10 108458.90 North America 27722.55 28179.40 31500.87 32103.43 29876.56 Eurasia 19471.53 22543.42 22243.47 21944.56 21334.42 Europe 17394.37 19873.13 18685.59 18511.95 19168.41 Asia & Oceania 10484.35 16871.03 22788.93 23626.78 16358.48 Middle East 6822.15 10674.04 14740.02 15078.16 10733.84 Central & South America 3303.69 4387.37 5245.73 5518.78 4353.89 Africa 2038.03 3016.99 4491.68 4573.43 3179.43 Source: EIA (2015) North America is the highest with respect to regional consumption of 29876.56 bcf of natural gas. Asia and Oceania (16358.48 bcf), Middle East (10733.84 bcf), Central and South America (4353.89 bcf) and Africa (3179.43 bcf) are among the least consumers of natural gas. 3.2 Intergovernmental organizations in the oil industry Countries in the international oil industry in order for them to stay productive and competitive have coalesced into intergovernmental organisations (IGOs), with a goal of developing fast-based approach in delivering high quality project outcomes, fostering innovations and helping develop solutions for operational and economic issues at regional and global levels (Belyi & Talus, 2015; Cissokho et al., 2013; Dorussen & Ward, 2008; Escobar & Le Chaffotec, 2015; Holland, 1998). These organisations bring together complementary skills and create platforms for innovation, cooperation and creativity, and 44 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh make full use of the available resources to provide sustainable development for the member nations (Dorussen & Ward, 2008; Holland, 1998). The participation of States in IGOs is to shape their policy in various ways; for example education (Bradley & Ramirez, 1996; Meyer, Ramirez, & Soysal, 1992; Schafer, 1999), environmental protection (Frank, 1997, 1999; Frank, Hironaka, & Schofer, 2000), science (Finnemore, 1993) etc. As the oil and gas industry continues to play a major role in meeting the world’s growing economic demands, there have been a number of such IGOs with policy direction towards the oil industry. In the international Oil and Gas industry the four IGOs at the forefront of forging global policy are OPEC, OAPEC, FSU and IEA. Without IGOs, it will be difficult to monitor performance over time, set up international regulations and restrictions for countries as IGOs help to create and bind international administrations (Biermann & Bauer, 2004). This section presents a brief overview of each of these IGOs. 3.2.1 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) established in September 1960, is a permanent intergovernmental organization headquartered in Vienna, Austria, created at the Baghdad Conference (OPEC, 2012). Originally made up of 5 members1, the five founding members were later joined by nine2 other members. Currently, OPEC comprises of 12 members, namely Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Venezuela. The main objective of this IGO is to co-ordinate and unify petroleum policies among member countries in order to secure fair and stable prices for petroleum producers (OPEC, 2012). The organization aims to ensure an efficient, economic and regular supply of petroleum to consuming nations; and a 1 OPEC founding members - (5) Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela. 2 OPEC other members - (9) Qatar, Indonesia, Libya, UAE, Algeria, Nigeria, Ecuador, Angola, Gabon. 45 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh fair return on capital to those investing in the industry (OPEC, 2012). Membership is automatic for the five founding members, but opened for any other country with a substantial net export of crude petroleum, which has fundamentally similar interests to those of founding member countries. A new member state is accepted into the organization by a majority of three-fourths of full member countries by the Conference (OPEC, 2012). The Organization functions through three organs: The Conference, Board of Governors; and the Secretariat. The organization is regulated by statute approved in the conference of 1961 which is the highest decision body(Goldthau & Witte, 2011). The membership of OPEC is diversely represented in various characteristics. From the regional stand point they can be grouped into (a) American countries (Ecuador & Venezuela), (b) North Africa (Algeria & Libya), (c) South and West Africa (Angola & Nigeria) and (d) Middle East (Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar & UAE) (Al-Rashed & León, 2015). OPEC is one of the most important or linchpin in the global oil market accounting for crude oil production of 41 per cent (that is 30.7m b/d) of the world’s average production and with proven crude oil reserves as at 2014 at 1,206billion barrels, which is 80.8 per cent of the 1,492.9 billion barrels of the World proven crude oil reserves (BP, 2014; OPEC, 2015; Sari & Soytas, 2009). Additionally, OPEC’s export revenue in 2014 was $730 billion (EIA, 2015) With a natural gas proven reserve of 95,129bn standard cubic meters, OPEC represents 47.3 per cent of the world proven gas reserves (OPEC, 2015). The organization phases a challenge of member states not respecting the output policies established (Goldthau & Witte, 2011) OPEC continues to actively engage in international cooperation and dialogue which has become an important industry event an effort in exchanging views and outlooks with other energy stakeholders (OPEC, 2014). 46 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 3.2.2 Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) is a regional inter- governmental organization concerned with the development of the petroleum industry by fostering cooperation among its members (OAPEC, 2015). OAPEC was establish on 9th January 1968 in Beirut by three3 Arab states with the headquarters in Kuwait. By 1982 the membership of the Organization had risen to eleven Arab oil exporting countries, namely Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Libya, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Algeria, Syrian, Iraq, Egypt, and Tunisia. OAPEC contributes to the effective use of the resources of member countries through sponsoring joint ventures. The main goals of OAPEC are: member states’ cooperation in various forms of the economic activity, development of close links between them, safeguarding the legitimate interests of its members under fair and reasonable terms in the oil industry (OAPEC, 2015). The Organization is guided by the belief of building an integrated petroleum industry as a cornerstone for future economic integration among Arab countries (OAPEC, 2015). The Organization functions through four organs (OAPEC, 2015): The Council of Ministers, which is the supreme authority responsible for its policies and rules. It appoints the Secretary General and Assistant Secretaries. The next is the Executive Bureau which assists the Ministerial Council in supervising the Organization’s affairs and recommendations to the Council on matters related to articles of the Agreement and the execution of the Organization’s activities. The Executive Bureau is composed of one representative from each of the member countries. The chairmanship rotates annually in the order followed by the Ministerial Council. OAPEC’s oil reserves have been estimated at about 713 billion 3 OAPEC founding members - (3) Saudi Arabia, Kuwait & Libya. 47 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh barrels about 55.2% of the proven world’s reserves in 2014 (OAPEC, 2015). The production of crude oil, despite OAPEC holding over half of the proven oil reserve, is relatively moderate at 22.9m b/d about 31.2 per cent of the worlds of 73.4m b/d. oil product consumption of OAPEC countries rose from 3.8m 6.8m in 2014. OAPEC now represents an international specialised organisation which supports the cooperation between oil producers and the implementation of common projects connected to the regional integration. 3.2.3 The Former Soviet Union (FSU) The Post-Soviet States, also collectively known as the Former Soviet Union (FSU) are the 15 independent states4 that emerged from the Union of Soviet Socialist Republic (USSR) in its dissolution in December 1991 (Minescu, Hagendoorn, & Poppe, 2008). The dissolution of the Soviet Union took place as a result of general economic stagnation, even regression the inter-republic economic connections, leading to even more serious breakdown of the post-Soviet economies (Easterly & Fischer, 1994). Most of the formerly Soviet states began the transition to a market economy in 1990-1991 and made efforts to rebuild and restructure their economic systems, with varying results (Podkorytova & Raskina, 2014). The process triggered a severe transition decline, with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) dropping by more than 40% between 1990 and 1995 (Podkorytova & Raskina, 2014)).This decline in GDP was much more intense than the 27% decline that the United States suffered in the wake of the Great Depression between 1930 and 1934 (Podkorytova & Raskina, 2014). The reconfiguration of public finance in compliance with the principles of market economy resulted in dramatically reduced spending on health, education and other social programs, leading to a sharp increase in poverty. Although the FSU is not a traditional IGO like OPEC 4 FSU members - (15) Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan 48 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh and OAPEC, the close historical links, the share of oil and gas reserves and production and collaboration in trade have made their influence critical in such comparison. The FSU holds a sizeable quantity of natural resources in oil and gas that can be economically produced to meet the global demand for energy (Aguilera, 2012). The member states of FSU dependent on this enormous natural resource endowment to build their economy (Aguilera, 2012). The distribution of gas shows that the FSU has the largest natural gas resource by region in the world, holding 3,716 (TCFG) and 30% of stranded gas reserve, followed by the Middle East and USA. The three regions together have about 70% of the global gas reserves(Aguilera, 2012). The FSU is second in oil reserve endowment after the Middle East with 118,886mb (OPEC, 2015). The FSU holds about 16.7 % of regional distribution of conventional oil reserves and with global production of 12,646.7 bd representing 17.2% (OPEC, 2015). Together the FSU region and the Middle East controls about 2/3 of the global conventional oil (Rogner et al., 2012). In view of their importance OPEC and EIA recognize their influence in their annual statistical bulletin. 3.2.4 The International Energy Agency (IEA) The International Energy Agency (IEA) was establish as an autonomous organization of the OECD after an agreement of the International Energy Program (IEP) in 1974 with membership of sixteen countries and its secretariat in Paris (Colgan, Keohane, & Van de Graaf, 2012). Currently IEA membership stands at 295. They work to ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy for its member countries and most importantly for oil importing countries and beyond. The IEA was founded in response to the 1973-1974 oil crisis, the IEA’s initial role was to help countries co-ordinate a collective response to major disruptions 5 IEA members - (29) Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, EC, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Luxembourg, Netherlands, NZ, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UK, US 49 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh in oil supply through the release of emergency oil stocks to the markets (IEA, 2014). While this continues to be a key aspect of its work, the IEA has evolved and expanded. It is at the heart of global dialogue on energy, providing authoritative statistics, analysis and recommendations. Today, the IEA’s four main areas of focus are: Energy security: Promoting diversity, efficiency and flexibility within all energy sectors; Economic development: Ensuring the stable supply of energy to IEA member countries and promoting free markets to foster economic growth and eliminate energy poverty; Environmental awareness: Enhancing international knowledge of options for tackling climate change; and Engagement worldwide: Working closely with non-member countries, especially major producers and consumers, to find solutions to shared energy and environmental concerns (IEA, 2014). An important part of the Agency’s program involves collaboration in the research, development, and demonstration of new energy technologies to reduce excessive reliance on imported oil, increase long-term energy security, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The IEA is made up of 29 member countries. Membership is based on four basic criteria. Before becoming a member country of the IEA, a candidate country must demonstrate that it has (a) as a net oil importer, reserves of crude oil and/or product equivalent to 90 days of the prior year’s average net oil imports to which the government (even if it does not own those stocks directly) has immediate access should there be activation of the Co-ordinated Emergency Response Measures (CERM) – which provide a rapid and flexible system of response to actual or imminent oil supply disruptions (b) a demand-restraint programme for reducing national oil consumption by up to 10% (c) legislation and organisation necessary to operate, on a national basis, the CERM, and (d) Legislation and measures in place to ensure that all oil companies operating under its jurisdiction report information as is necessary (IEA, 2014). 50 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh To fully understand the energy markets, requires bringing on board the concerns, challenges and the solutions being considered by all the important actors in the industry (IEA, 2014). Collaborating with partner countries and others gives a wide array of activities, such as, holding workshop jointly on specific issues such as energy efficiency, policies on emergency response, co-operating on in-depth surveys of specific energy sectors in partner countries. The IEA also works with other international organisations and forums in the energy field. It engages in an active discussions with producer countries and other IGOs in the oil and gas industry particularly at the International Energy Forum (IEF) (IEA, 2014). In addition, the IEA collaborates with the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and engages with partner countries and other international agencies to provide all stakeholders including business leaders a true global perspective of the world’s energy system. 3.3 Conclusion This chapter describes the relevance of IGOs and their roles in the international oil and gas industry which informs the global production and supply of the natural resources. The chapter also presents some statistics of major producer and consumer countries globally. 51 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh CHAPTER FOUR METHODOLOGY 4.0 Introduction This chapter looks at research design adopted for the study and data and data sources. This is followed by an overview of the methods of assessment of oil and gas producing countries. The aim of the chapter is to provide an overview of the analytical framework and techniques that guide the research. 4.1 Research design The study is quantitative in nature which provides an objective assessment and testing of theories and the relationship between variables which can be measured through statistical methods (Creswell, 2013). The quantitative approach to research adopted in this study is guided by a positivist philosophical paradigm. This paradigm provides an objective view to data collection and estimation procedure since it detaches itself from research subjects (Creswell, 2013; Wilson, 2010). The study uses a panel data to draw inferences to answer the research questions. By employing panel data to explore efficiency of oil producing countries (OPCs) of the four IGOs in the international oil industry, this study provides findings that are not biased by cross-sectional or firm-specific (time series) restrictions. The study covers the period from 2000 to 2013. The study relies on a secondary data sourced from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) database on OPCs and World Bank’s World development indicators which is assessed using various Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) techniques. The adopted research design is experimental in nature. This enables comparison of groups with high standard of internal validity as this study seeks to examine 52 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh the efficiency and the frontier differences within and between the various groups of OPCs (Bhattacherjee, 2012; Creswell, 2013). 4.2 Data for modelling The study is based on population of all OPCs under the period of review from 2000 to 2013. Although 2014 data is available, there are several missing values for some variables and is therefore not included. Although various countries may specialise in either oil resources or natural gas exploration and extraction, to provide a holistic assessment, the study is interested in countries who hold both oil and gas resources. The governments of most of the OPCs own oil blocks and are involved in either of the two segments, that is, the upstream or downstream segments of the oil and gas industry. The upstream is for the exploration and production of oil and gas from the reserves whilst the downstream deals more with processing, bulk storage, distribution, and marketing. This study is interested in only the upstream segment. Whiles all oil and gas producing countries are eligible for selection, based on the research objectives, the population of the study comprises the 65 oil and gas producing countries of the four IGOs - OPEC (12 countries), IEA (28 countries), FSU (15 countries) and OAPEC (10 countries). Of these 65 members of the four IGOs understudy, 62 countries produce oil and 54 countries extract gas. Only 53 members are producers of both oil and gas. This is clearly presented in Table 4.1. Therefore, the study is based on the 53 OPCs who produce both oil and gas. It is important to note that some OPCs belong to two IGOs, but when the duplicate OPCs, especially in OPEC and OAPEC are excluded from the sample, the effective number of IGOs become 46 unique countries. 53 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh Table 4.1 : Membership distribution of IGOs IGO Membership Oil Producing Gas Processing Oil & Gas OPEC 12 12 12 12 IEA 28 27 22 21 FSU 15 13 10 10 OAPEC 10 10 10 10 Total 65 62 54 53 The primary data source for this study is the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). This institution gathers data on the oil and gas activities of all countries globally. Information on Production, Reserves and Consumption of Petroleum, Natural Gas, Electricity and other renewables collated from the period from 1980 to 2014 are available in this database. Additionally, the World Development Indicators database of World Bank is used to gather mostly labour statistics. 4.3 Efficiency modelling and other considerations In recent years, considerable methods have been used to examine and compare frontier efficiency performance of different countries and groups. The two widely used methods to estimate frontier efficiency of decision making units (DMUs) are the nonparametric constant return to scale (CRS) Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) (Charnes, Cooper, & Rhodes, 1978a), which was later extended by (Banker, 1984), and the parametric Stochastic Frontier Analysis (Aigner, Lovell, & Schmidt, 1977) which was later extended to variable return to scale (VRS). This study relies on the DEA approach because unlike the SFA, it does not require several impractical model specifications on the production frontier as seen in the SFA approach (Jacobs, 2001). DEA is a nonparametric mathematical programming method based on a linear programming model used to estimate and compare the efficiency 54 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh of organisations or DMUs given their available resources (inputs) to create a set of outcomes (outputs) relative to other units (Ramanathan, 2007). DEA is a technique which depends on input-output data to construct a production frontier which is used as the benchmark to evaluate other units in the sample. DEA was introduced by Charnes et al. (1978a) to compare efficiencies of organisations. Their approach was based on a constant return to scale (CRS) production frontier which holds the assumption of full proportionality of inputs and output relationship. Banker, Charnes, and Cooper (1984) extended this methodology using the variable returns to scale (VRS) frontier, which holds that the proportionality assumption is not always upheld. In the model, the DMUs with the best efficiency in converting inputs into output are identified as the best and the other DMUs are ranked relative to the most efficient DMUs. Arguably, one key benefit of this approach for relative assessment of DMUs is because it can estimate efficiencies even when a particular DMU has multiple inputs and outputs. Often the interest in evaluating the efficiency and performance of DMUs is constrained by substantial differences in geographical boundaries or group dynamics of the DMUs under consideration. The metafrontier and global frontier approaches allow for better handling of these group specific heterogeneities in the efficiency assessment. This study relies on these two frontier frameworks to measure and compare the efficiency of countries in different IGOs in the oil and gas industry. The next section presents an overview of these frontier approaches. 4.3.1 Metafrontier analysis Metafrontier in DEA has been attributed to the works of Battese et al. (2004); Battese and Rao (2002b); O’Donnell et al. (2008b). It was later extended by De Witte and Marques (2009). However the idea is based on the concept of meta-production function by Hayami 55 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh and Ruttan (1971) (Battese et al., 2004; O’Donnell et al., 2008b). The meta-production function has some advantages but the lack of comparable data and the presence of inherent differences across groups was the major limitation of this approach (Battese et al., 2004). Therefore, the metafrontier approach fills in these disadvantages by allowing comparison across heterogeneous groups (Battese & Rao, 2002a; O’Donnell et al., 2008b). Oil producing countries are in different groups and regions and are faced with different production capabilities such as the quality of physical and human capital, economic infrastructure and resource endowment. Metafrontier, most importantly, envelops all group frontiers. In other words, this frontier combines all firms irrespective of which group they belong to. It then measures efficiencies relative to the metafrontier and the group frontier and can be decomposed into two components: A component that measures the distance from an input – output point to the group frontier, and another component that measures the differences between the group frontier and the metafrontier. Therefore, given y and x nonnegative real output and input vectors, the meta-technology set is defined as: T  (x, y) : x  0; y  0; x can be used to produce y (1) The output-oriented technical efficiency (Meta efficiency) of a DMU relative to the M metafrontier (TE0 (x, y)) based on a CRS assumption, can be defined as: TEM0 (x, y)  Max  s.t : n  yrj j yro r 1 ,..., p (2) j1 n  xij j  xio i 1 ,..., m j1  j  0 j 1 ,..., n 56 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh M Where TE0 represent the technical efficiency with respect to metafrontier of a DMU. A M firm is said to be technically efficient if TE0 = 1. In the model in Eqn. (2), xij denotes the amount of the ith input used by the jth DMU. y rj is the amount of the r th output produced by the jth DMU. Note that, in the sample, we have m number of inputs and p number of outputs for a set of n number of DMUs. Also j is the intensity weight defining the convex combination of the best practice units that are compared with the jth unit.  is equivalent to TE M0 which measures the maximum percentage of expansion of the output of a particular DMU necessary to make that DMU efficient. The existence of sub-groups in the meta-technology can be defined and assessed. Here, we now assume that the set of DMUs can be divided into K groups (where K > 1). The production technology defined in Eqn. (1) can be redefined for the kth group as: T k  (x, y) : x  0; y  0; x can be used by DMUs in group k to produce y  (3) k In a similar way, a group-specific technical efficiency, TE0 (x, y) , can be formulated for a DMU this time relative to its group frontier. This is defined in Eqn. (4) as: TE k0 (x, y)  Max  s.t : n  y k krj . j  yro r  1 ,..., p (4) j1 n  x k ij .k j  .xio i  1 ,..., m j1  k j  0 j  1 ,..., n 57 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh Based on these two efficiency scores- meta efficiency and the group efficiency, a technology gap ratio can be computed. According to Battese et al. (2004) the output oriented technology gap ratio of a group k , TGR k 0 (x, y) , can be defined as the ratio of the Meta technical efficiency to the group technical efficiency. k TE M (x, y) TGR0 (x, y)  0 (5) TEk0 (x, y) The ratio takes value between zero and one and measures the diversion from the metafrontier (available technology irrespective of group) due to membership of a particular group k. In other words, how far back, or close, is a particular firm due to membership of a particular group k. This shows that the meta technical efficiency can be decomposed as follows: TEM0 (x, y)  TGR k 0 (x, y)TE k 0 (x, y) (6) The meta-efficiency estimated relative to the meta frontier which represents the existing state of knowledge irrespective of group can therefore be decomposed into the product of a group-specific technical which represents the existing state of knowledge and the physical, social and economic environment that characterizes that particular group k and the technological gap ratio (meta-technology ratio) for group-k which provides a measure of how close the group-k frontier is to the metafrontier (O’Donnell et al., 2008a). To illustrate the Metafrontier approach, a hypothetical data of 9 DMUs who belong to three IGOs (OPEC, IEA and FSU) have been presented in Table 4.2. Each firm uses 1 input (reserves) to produce 2 outputs (Oil and Gas). 58 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh Table 4.2: Data of Hypothetical OPCs and IGOs OIL GAS DMUs IGO PRODUCED PRODUCED R E S ERVES O1 OPEC 9 3 1 O2 OPEC 6.5 4 1 O3 OPEC 6 2 1 I1 IEA 7.5 3.5 1 I2 IEA 5 4 1 I3 IEA 5.5 5.5 1 F1 FSU 4 5 1 F2 FSU 7 3 1 F3 FSU 2 3 1 To graphically illustrate this dataset, the outputs have been normalised by the inputs. This can be depicted in Figure 4.1. 6 I3 OPEC FSU F1 IEA 5 Meta Frontier I2 O2 4 I1 F3 F2 O 3 1 O3 2 1 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 OIL Figure 4.1: Graphical Illustration of Hypothetical Data 59 GAS University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh Here, while round bullets represents the IEA group, the group specific frontiers of OPEC and FSU are square and triangular bullets respectively. Finally, all DMUs can be enveloped into a meta frontier represented by the black dashed line. The output oriented group efficiency of a DMU can be estimated as a radial projection of the DMUs on the frontier and the current location of the DMU. For example, the group-specific efficiency of DMU O3 can be estimated as 9/6 = 1.5. Where 9 is the projected location and 6 is the current location. Although these values are picked on the X-axis, values on the Y-axis can also be used. The efficiency score of the same DMU using the Y-axis can be estimated as 3/2 = 1.5. This holds because of the proportionality condition. Note also that, for DMU O3, its meta efficiency score will also be 1.5 since at the target point, the group frontier is the same as the meta frontier. The technology gap ratio (TGR) of DMU O3 can therefore be estimated based on notations in Equation (5) as: 1.5/1.5 =1. Which means that O3 experiences no difference in production capabilities by belonging to the OPEC group. It therefore makes 100% use of all technological spillovers. The VRS linear programming model for DMU O3 for its group specific frontier and metafrontier are presented below: Output-oriented VRS model for DMU O3 relative to OPEC frontier TEOPECO3 (x, y)  Max  s .t 9o1  6.5o2  6o3  6 3o1  4o2  2o3  2 o1  o2  o3 1 o1  o2  o3 1 λ j  0  TEOPECO3 (x, y)  1.5 60 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh Output-oriented VRS model for DMU O3 relative to Meta frontier TE METAO3 (x, y)  Max  s .t 9o1  6.5o2  6o3  7.5I1  5I 2  5.5I 3  4F1  7F 2  2F 3  6 3o1  4o2  2o3  3.5I1  4I 2  5.5I 3  5F1  3F 2  3F 3  2 o1  o2  o3  I1  I 2  I 3  F1  F 2  F 3 1 o1  o2  o3  I1  I 2  I 3  F1  F 2  F 3 1 λ j  0  TE METAO3 (x, y)  1.5 The group-specific efficiencies as well as the meta efficiencies and TGR for all DMUs are presented in Table 4.3. For output orientation as in this case, the inverse of the TGR is used in order to ensure that the values are bounded by 0 and 1. Table 4.3 : Group and Meta Efficiencies Meta Efficiencies OPEC Frontier IEA Frontier FSU Frontier TGR TEM (x, y) TEOPEC (x, y) TE IEA( ) ( ) ( (x, y) ) (TE FSU (x, y) ) DMUs IGO O1 OPEC 1 1 - - 1 O2 OPEC 1.091 1 - - 0.92 O3 OPEC 1.5 1.5 - - 1 I1 IEA 1.065 - 1 - 0.94 I2 IEA 1.245 - 1.2222 - 0.98 I3 IEA 1 - 1 - 1 F1 FSU 1.1 - - 1 0.91 F2 FSU 1.179 - - 1 0.85 F3 FSU 1.833 - - 1.6667 0.91 Based on the values in Table 4.3, DMU O2 for example is producing at 91% of its potential due to membership of the OPEC frontier. 4.3.2 Global-frontier differences Whereas the metafrontier approach is able to provide a group specific efficiency assessment based on the group frontier as well as the metafrontier, it is sometimes necessary that best performing in two different groups are compared to see which group outperforms the other. 61 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh Whereas the metafrontier approach is an intra-group performance indicator, the global frontier shift differences measure is an inter-group performance indicator that compares groups of DMUs. The global frontier shift index is a component of the global Malmquist productivity index and is the primary model used in comparing the frontier differences between various groups (Asmild & Tam, 2007). This examines the overall rather than the individual changes in the frontier of various groups (Asmild, Hollingsworth, & Birch, 2013). This means that this model can draw conclusions about performance differences for the entire sample. It is better since aggregating other performance indices can be problematic using other methods in sparsely populated data set and unbalanced panel (Otsuki, 2013). The global frontier shift index therefore performs better than traditional frontier shift indices. It can also cater for overlapping frontiers. In estimating the global frontier differences, it is important to define a technology index for each group k (TI k ) , which is a geometric mean of the efficiency scores of all firms belonging to a particular group k. This is defined as: 1   j k  TI (x j , y j )  k  TE (x K j , y K j ) (7)  j1,n   K1,,k  The global frontier shift index or global technical change or the global frontier difference between different groups k and k is defined as: 1 2 62 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh k TI 2 (x j , y j )k ,k GFD 1 2  k TI 1 (x j , y j ) 1   j  k  TE 2 (x K j , y K j ) (8)  j1,n   K1,,k   1   j  k TE 1 (xK K    j , y j )  j1,n   K1,,k  This is the ratio of the geometric mean of the efficiencies of all firms relative to k frontier 2 to the geometric mean of the efficiencies of all firms relative to k frontier. The efficiency 1 scores are computed using similar model formulation to that already presented in equation (4). The GFD >1 indicate that group 1 is, on average better that group 2 frontier. When GFS = 1 then the indication is that group 1 frontier is not better than group 2 frontier. Finally, if GFS < 1, then group 1 frontier is worse than group 2. Frontier shift is used where changes in time are being assessed. However, where the frontiers are of different groups, then the term global frontier differences is preferred. To illustrate the Global Frontier Differences approach, we use the same dataset and graph shown in Table 4.2 and Figure 4.1 respectively. Now efficiencies scores of all the 9 DMUs will estimated using each of the group frontiers. For example, the efficiency of DMU O3 relative to the IEA frontier will be 7.5/6 = 1.25. O3’s efficiency relative to FSU’s frontier will be 7/6 = 1.167. This process is done for all DMUs. The mathematical programming models for the efficiency of DMU O3 relative to the IEA and FSU frontiers are presented below: 63 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh Output-oriented VRS model for DMU O3 relative to IEA frontier TE IEAO3 (x, y)  Max  s .t 7.5I1  5I 2  5.5I 3  6 3.5I1  4I 2  5.5I 3  2  I1  I 2  I 3 1  I1  I 2  I 3 1 λ j  0  TE IEAO3 (x, y)  1.25 Output-oriented VRS model for DMU O3 relative to FSU frontier TE FSUO3 (x, y)  Max  s .t 4F1  7F 2  2F 3  6 5F1  3F 2  3F 3  2  F1  F 2  F 3 1  F1  F 2  F 3 1 λ j  0  TE FSUO3 (x, y)  1.16667 The efficiencies for all the firms are therefore presented in Table 4.4 Table 4.4: Efficiencies for Global Frontier Difference Analysis OPEC Frontier IEA Frontier FSU Frontier TEOPEC( (x, y) IEA FSU) (TE (x, y) ) (TE (x, y) ) DMUs IGO O1 OPEC 1 0.8333 0.7778 O2 OPEC 1 1.0476 0.92 O3 OPEC 1.5 1.25 1.1667 I1 IEA 1.0154 1 0.902 I2 IEA 1 1.2222 1.0455 I3 IEA 0.7273 1 0.8364 F1 FSU 0.8 1.1 1 F2 FSU 1.1379 1.0714 1 F3 FSU 1.3333 1.8333 1.6667 Geometric Mean 1.0334 1.1248 1.0104 64 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh Therefore, based on the geometric means in Table 4.4, and the notations in Equation (8), the GFD between IEA and OPEC can be estimated as 1.1248/1.0334 = 1.09. This shows that the IEA frontier is about 9% better on the average than the OPEC frontier. A matrix of the GFD between the three groups is presented in Table 4.5. Table 4.5: Global Frontier Differences OPEC IEA FSU OPEC 1 IEA 1.09 1 FSU 0.98 0.90 1 Therefore, for the hypothetical data, whereas IEA frontier is 9% better than OPEC, FSU frontier is 2% worse than the OPEC frontier. Indeed, the FSU frontier is 10% worse than the IEA frontier. 4.3.3 Bootstrapping DEA nonparametric efficiency scores have an inherent bias since efficiency scores can be affected by changes in the data and presence of the outliers and do possess the necessary statistical properties for making inferences (Gitto & Mancuso, 2012; Simar & Wilson, 2000; Simar & Wilson, 2015). Although parametric efficiency estimators like stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) permits statistical inference (Atkinson & Cornwell, 1994), when the sample observations are few these parametric statistics may not be applicable (Lothgren & Tambour, 1999). To correct the deficiencies of bootstrapping, Simar and Wilson (1998); (2000) proposed a bootstrap method which allows for statistical inferences on distance function estimates (efficiency scores) estimated using the DEA approach along the lines of the bootstrap approach which was introduced by Efron (1979). Bootstrap procedures offer realistic assessment for improving the bias of the efficiency estimates and for building confidence intervals for the efficiency scores (Simar & Wilson, 2015). The idea of 65 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh bootstrapping introduced by (Efron, 1979) is to use empirical distribution of resampling data to generate a new dataset to estimate and reproduce repeated efficiency score from the observed data. This is the process of regenerating the original data repeatedly and each time estimating the efficiency scores. The re-generation of the data is perform by resampling with replacement of the original data (Hoff, 2006). It is a computer intensive approach (Simar & Wilson, 1999).  The aim of the bootstrap algorithm is to mimic the distribution of DEA scores TE j (x, y) , in order to approximate the true unknown efficiency score TE j (x, y) . However, since the true score is unknown, the difference between the true score and the estimated score   TE j   (x, y)TE j (x, y) is also unknown. However, appropriate bootstrap approximation      provides the opportunity to proxy TE j (x, y) TE j (x, y) to the bootstrap counterpart,    j* j  , where; TE j*TE (x, y) TE (x, y) (x, y) is the bootstrap estimate which is completely   known after the resampling procedure. The approximation between the two distributions is appropriate when the homogenous bootstrap is used (Kneip, Simar, & Wilson, 2008). Once the distributions are mimicked, statistical properties like the bias, bias-corrected score and confidence intervals for each DMU are easily derived. It is given by the following bootstrapped counterpart, the bias for a DMU is the difference between the average of the bootstrap samples for the DMU and the original estimated efficiency score, such that:     BIAS (TE j )  E(TE j*) TE j B   (9) j*  B1TEb TE j j  1,  ,n b1 66 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh  j* Where TEb is the bootstrapped efficiency and B is the number of bootstrap samples. After estimating the bias, the bias-corrected DEA efficiency scores can be estimated as:     TE j**  TE j  BIAS (TE j )  B  (10) j*  2TE j  B1TEb j  1,  ,n b1 It must be recognized that DEA efficiencies are corrected unless the ratio between absolute value of bias and standard deviation is greater than 0.25:   BIAS (TE j )      0.25  j 1,  ,n (11) st d (TE j ) where, 1/ 2    1 B  j j* j* st d (TE )   (TEb - TE ) 2 b  ,  b 1,.  , B (12) B1 b1   j* and TEb is the mean of the bootstrapped efficiency scores. As the bootstrap distribution   TE j*   (x, y) TE j (x, y) is completely known, the relative  *  and  *  quartiles, for a given   level of probability could be easily found. These are good proxies for the quartiles of the  j j  unknown distribution TE (x, y)TE (x, y) and can be used in the bootstrap    approximation as Prb*α TE j(x,y)TE j(x,y) a*α 1α . Hence, the 1 percent  k * confidence interval is given by the lower bound at the level TE  and the upper at the  k * level TE   . 67 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 4.3.4 Testing returns to scale Without statistical testing, it is uncertain whether the production technology set that operates in an industry exhibits a constant or variable return to scale (CRS) or a variable one (VRS) in the measurement of efficiency in a nonparametric DEA model (Camanho & Dyson, 2005). It is therefore imperative to investigate the returns to scale characteristics of the international oil industry in order to use the appropriate models relating to the appropriate underlying technology. There have been few studies on statistical testing of returns to scale estimators in DEA especially in the oil and gas industry. Testing of the returns to scale hypothesis in DEA-models was earlier discussed in the works of Banker (1993, 1996). However, the semiparametric nature of this returns to scale approach by Banker (1993) has been seen by Simar and Wilson (2002) to be problematic. Therefore, the bootstrap method proposed by Simar and Wilson (2002) is used to test the scale elasticity of the oil and gas industry. Simar and Wilson (2002) introduce the DEA bootstrap method for testing the returns to scale in order to know whether the technology shows constant return to scale everywhere on the frontier or otherwise. The basic idea of the test of returns to scale is along the lines of Färe and Grosskopf (1985) by computing ratios of the CRS technical efficiency score to the VRS technical efficiency score (TEcrsj (x, y) TE vrs j (x, y) 1) for each observation j 1,...,n in the technology set T crs vrs . With this idea, if the ratio is equal to 1 (i.e. TE j (x, y) TE j (x, y) 1) , then the estimated technology is assumed to exhibit CRS at the benchmark point of that particular DMU; otherwise, the estimated technology is assumed to exhibit a variable returns to scale at this TEcrs vrspoint. This means that, if for any particular observation j (x, y) TE j (x, y) 1 , then CRS may not hold for this observation. However, without a formal statistical testing procedure, it is quite difficult to determine whether this is due to non-constant returns to 68 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh scale or merely due to sampling variation (Simar & Wilson, 2002). Therefore, the null (Ho) and alternative (H1) hypotheses for the Simar and Wilson (2002) test of returns to scale are stated as follows: H0: T is globally CRS (i.e. the technology set exhibits CRS for all observations) H1: T is VRS (i.e. the technology set does not exhibit CRS for all observations) To develop the test statistic to be used in testing the hypotheses above, consider first an estimator of scale efficiency sx, y of a particular DMU, defined as    s TEcrs(x, y) TEvrsj j (x, y) the mean of ratios of all observations can be used as the test statistic for this test. This is defined as:  n TE crs (x, y)  Sˆ crs j 1  n 1`   (13)  j1 TE vrs j (x, y)   which is an estimator of the mean scale efficiencies for all observations. If the null hypothesis (H0) is true, then the CRS technical efficiencies for all observations is expected to be the same as the VRS scores, and Sˆ crs1 1. Otherwise S ˆ crs 1  1which signifies that the mean of ratios is significantly less than unity. Other test statistics can be used but the mean of ratios is employed just like Tortosa-Ausina, Grifell-Tatjé, Armero, and Conesa (2008) because the mean of ratios has an intuitive geometric interpretation (Simar & Wilson, 2002). Finally, in order to statistically test the hypotheses, there is the need for an appropriate critical value or p-value. However, since the statistical distribution of the scale test is unknown, the bootstrap methodology developed in Simar and Wilson (1998) can be extended in order to generate an empirical distribution of the scale test from which critical values, confidence intervals and p-values can be estimated. 69 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 4.3.5 Testing of differences in the distribution of efficiency scores Testing of differences in efficiency among various groups is an important area of concern for empirical studies (Simar & Zelenyuk, 2006). One of the issues of concern is that DEA estimated efficiency scores are restrictive efficiency scores distributed across population of given set of DMUSs and do not provide good basis for statistical tests (Simar & Zelenyuk, 2006; Trinh & Zelenyuk, 2015). Therefore, traditional tests of differences like t-test, anova, Mann Whitney test and Wilcoxon’s tests, will not provide the appropriate statistical power. In examining whether the differences in the efficiencies scores of the IGOs in the international oil and gas industry are statistically significant, or whether due to only estimation variations, a test of difference in the distribution of the efficiency scores is important. The study employs the Simar-Zelenyuk-adapted-Li test (SZAL) to statistically explore significant differences in the distribution of efficiency or frontier estimates between different IGOs in the oil and gas industry (Li, 1996; Simar & Zelenyuk, 2006). This nonparametric test effectively compares the equality of distributions of efficiency estimates using kernel density estimations. The non-parametric kernel density estimator, is largely gaining more significance in research (Banker, Cooper, Seiford, Thrall, & Zhu, 2004; Simar & Zelenyuk, 2006) and is very useful since there is no distributional assumptions imposed on the efficiency scores across the groups. In comparing the density of distribution of efficiency scores between two random groups for which the random samples TE A, j : j 1,...,n andTE B, j : j 1,...,n, representing the efficiencies of the two subgroups A and B in a population. Now, given that f l denotes the density of the distribution of the efficiency TE l l  A, B our null and alternative hypotheses would be 70 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh H 0 : f A A TE  f B TE B , (14) H a : f A TE A  f BB TE  The true technical efficiency scores in each subgroup, TE A, j : j 1,...,n and TE B, j : j 1,...,n, are independently and identically distributed (i.i.d.) within each subgroup with densities f . and f . , respectively. The bootstrap algorithm for the Simar A B and Zelenyuk adapted Li-test in comparing the distributions of efficiency scores can be summarized as follows: 1. For each DMU estimate the TE(x, y) using the DEA approach, therefore obtaining a sequence of estimated efficiency scores for all DMUs{ TE j j 1,,n }. 2. Smooth the original estimates of the efficiency scores using the smoothing rule:  j j j j j TE* (x j j TE(x , y )   , i f TE(x , y ) 1 , y )   TE(x j , y j ), otherwise Based on this, split the sample estimates into two sample estimates into two subsamples of DEA estimates, A and B thus obtaining: { TE*A, j j 1,,n } (A1) b A { TE*B, j j 1,,n } (A2) b B 3. Next, estimate the Li (1996) test statistic using the subsamples in (A1) and (A2) and bandwidth h*  min{ h*A ,h * B }, where h * A and h * B are obtained using same optimal rule applied to (A1) and (A2) respectively. 4. Resample from the largest subsample out of (A1) or (A2) in order to obtain the bootstrap analogues of (A1) and (A2) and call them: { TE**A, j j 1,,n } (A3) b A { TE**B, j j 1,,n } (A4) b B 71 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 5. Estimate the bootstrapped Li test statistic using (A3) and (A4) and ** hb  min{ h ** ** b,A ,hb,B }, where h ** and h** are obtained using the same optimal rule b,A b,B applied to (A1) and (A2) in step 3 to (A3) and (A4) respectively. 6. Repeat steps 4 and 5 Bb 1,, B times to obtain B bootstrap estimates of the Li statistic that will mimic the distribution of the original estimate of the Li statistic under the null hypothesis. 4.4 Modelling inputs and outputs Three inputs and two outputs are selected for the efficiency estimation process. Oil reserves, gas reserves and total labour force employed were chosen as inputs to generate natural resources of oil and gas. The two outputs, oil and gas quantities are physically generated from the oil and gas reserves using human resources. These variables are selected because the issue under consideration is how oil producing countries are converting their resource inputs into maximum outputs obtainable. Table 4.6 presents a summary of the selected variables to be used in the analysis. Selection is mainly guided by literature. 72 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh Table 4.6: Model Variable Selection Purpose Variable Unit Crude Oil Billions of Reason Very important asset and is regarded as accurately reported Proved barrels (Eller et al., 2011) Reserves Used by: (Eller et al., 2011; Ike & Lee, 2014; Kashani, 2005b; Sueyoshi & Goto, 2012a; Thompson et al., 1996; Wolf, 2009) Proved Trillion of Reason Very important asset and is regarded as accurately reported Reserves of Cubic (Eller et al., 2011) Inputs Natural Gas Feet Used by: (Eller et al., 2011; Ike & Lee, 2014; Kashani, 2005b; Sueyoshi & Goto, 2012a, 2012b; Thompson et al., 1996; Wolf, 2009) Employees Millions Reason This is a proxy for labour as a factor of production Used by: (Eller et al., 2011; Ike & Lee, 2014; Kashani, 2005b; Sueyoshi & Goto, 2012a, 2012b, 2014; Thompson et al., 1996; Wolf, 2009) Total Oil Thousand Reason The input resources must be accounted for and the maximum Supply Barrels obtainable output from oil reserves using best practice is oil Per Day production (Ike & Lee, 2014) Used by: (Barros & Assaf, 2009; Barros & Managi, 2009a; Eller et al., 2011; Ike & Lee, 2014; Kashani, 2005b; Sueyoshi & Goto, 2012a, 2012b; Thompson et al., 1996; Wolf, 2009) Outputs Gross Billion Reason The input resources must be accounted for and the maximum Natural Gas Cubic obtainable output from gas reserves using best practice is gas Production Feet production (Ike & Lee, 2014) Used by: (Barros & Assaf, 2009; Barros & Managi, 2009a; Eller et al., 2011; Ike & Lee, 2014; Kashani, 2005b; Sueyoshi & Goto, 2012a, 2012b; Thompson et al., 1996; Wolf, 2009) 4.4.1 Inputs The three inputs used for generating oil and gas outputs for all the oil producing countries are oil and gas reserves estimated differently and the labour force employed. 4.4.1.1 Oil and Gas reserves Oil and gas reserves are commercially identified volumes of oil and gas that can be recovered in the future. Oil reserves are volumes of an estimated quantity of crude oil identified in a specific area through geographic analysis and data from demonstrated engineering surveys (EIA, 2013). The resource are converted into outputs that generates 73 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh significant revenue (Wolf, 2009). It is the most important asset and is regarded as more accurately reported by all countries than other inputs (Eller et al., 2011). These two reserves are measured separately. Whereas oil reserves are measured in billions of barrels (bbls), natural gas reserves are measured in trillions of cubic feet (tcf). 4.4.1.2 Labour force Labour is a critical resource in the production process. It is therefore a key resource in all production efficiency estimation models, including DEA. The oil industry is both labour and capital intensive process. Although labour can be measured in numbers, wages and salaries as well as labour hours, there is no comprehensive database or source for this variable. However, time series datasets of the total labour force for all countries are available in the World-Bank’s World Development Indicator database. This labour force statistic will not be an appropriate proxy as labour for the oil industry of these countries since it includes persons operating in all other industries of the country. Therefore, labour force of these countries are estimated in relation to the industry’s contribution to the total GDP of the country at a particular time. Therefore, oil and gas labour force for a country j at time t is estimated as a function of the total labour force of that country at time t given an average of the oil rents and the natural gas rents. Note that the oil and gas rents are estimated as a percentage of the GDP and can be seen as a proxy of the contribution of the oil and gas industry towards the GDP of the country. This is can be expressed as:  GR jt OR jt  OLF jt  LF    (15)  jt    2  OLF jt = Oil and Gas Labour force for country j at time t. LF jt = Labour force for country j at time t. 74 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh GR = Natural Gas Rents for country j at time t as a percentage of GDP. jt OR = Oil Rents for country j at time t as a percentage of GDP. jt Whereas natural gas rents are the difference between the value of natural gas production at world prices and total costs of production, oil rents are the difference between the value of crude production at world prices and total costs of production (World Bank, 2011). 4.4.2 Outputs The two outputs are the oil and gas quantities physically generated from the critical inputs of oil producing countries. Oil and gas production is the quantity of oil and gas that have been recovered in a given time period. This is primarily output from operations of drilling from the oil and gas reserves as an end product of the upstream industry activities (Wolf, 2009). By this, increasing the production output is an essential pointer for improved economic performance of oil producing countries (OPCs). Oil and gas producing countries are looking forward to meeting the growing demands on improving the socioeconomic activities of their countries essentially from oil and gas production generated revenue. Hence production in thousands of barrels per day and billion cubic feet for oil and gas respectively are good estimates for measuring performance of not just output generated revenue, but also for benchmarking and appropriate technology use. 4.5 Other DEA consideration Two DEA models input and output orientations are used in the efficiency assessment. The adapted model for this study is the output-orientation DEA model for the four IGOs, and sample of 65 oil producing countries belonging to them. In the output orientation, the proportional output expansion level is observed to provide the best practice technology 75 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh being applied whilst the input is held constant. Technically efficient oil producing countries will be required to increase their output for a given set inputs. More specifically the output- oriented technical efficiency measure is appropriate in respect of a group(s). This has been applied to most oil and gas related efficiency studies (Barros & Assaf, 2009; Eller et al., 2011; Ike & Lee, 2014; Ismail et al., 2013). This is because oil producing countries are more concerned with the maximum production output for supply to the various areas (oil consuming countries) since pricing decisions are left with market conditions. Apart from that, output-orientated measure is more inclined to industries with critical demand schedules (Zhou et al., 2008). For all estimations, R software version 3.1.1 used with the rDEA, Benchmarking and Nonparaeff packages. MaxDEA and EMS were also used for confirmatory purposes. 4.6 Conclusions The discussion of this chapter emphasized and provided a clear and precise description on the methodology and the adopted assumptions in the assessment of this study. It also showed the data source as well as the quantitative, experimental and positivist research approaches employed in the data collection and analysis process. 76 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh CHAPTER FIVE ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSIONS 5.0 Introduction This section provides empirical results aimed at answering the research questions and achieving the objectives of the study. The chapter is divided into five sections. Whereas the first presents a description of the data used, the final section presents a summary of the chapter. The remaining three sections provides empirical results that directly answer the research questions. Whereas section two presents answers to research question 1, section three presents answers to research questions 2 and 3. Finally, section four provides answers to questions 4 and 5. For each of these research questions addressed, discussions are made with respect to literature and practice. 5.1 Data Description The data for the analysis was primarily sourced from the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) database of oil and gas statistics of oil producing countries (OPCs) in the international oil industry. Whereas data for several countries are available, data for the 52 OPCs under consideration were gathered from the period 2000 to 2013. Annual oil reserves, annual gas reserves, daily oil production and gas production levels were gathered from this source. The data needed for the estimation of labour force of these OPCs was from the World Banks’s World Development Indicators database. Generally, three inputs and two outputs are used for the efficiency estimation. Whereas the oil reserves, gas reserves and labour force are the inputs, production levels of oil and gas are the two outputs. Descriptive statistics of the variables for the pooled dataset covering the 14-year period from 2000 to 2013 is presented in Table 5.1. The number of observations (N), mean, standard deviations, minimum and maximum values for each variable and for each IGO are presented. Also 77 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh included in the table are the results of a test of differences using one-way ANOVA to test differences in the variables between the four IGOs understudy. Table 5.1: Descriptive Statistics of Pooled Data from 2000 to 2013 ANOVA N Mean Std. Dev. Minimum Maximum F Sig. Oil Reserves FSU 140 8.53 18.30 0.01 80.00 71.32 .000 IEA 280 9.09 34.50 0.01 180.02 OAPEC 138 56.18 81.33 0.12 267.91 OPEC 165 78.76 75.83 2.12 297.57 Overall 723 33.87 63.28 0.01 297.57 Gas Reserves FSU 140 202.98 497.81 0.10 1700.00 25.07 .000 IEA 280 25.88 54.29 0.02 334.07 OAPEC 138 147.93 232.06 2.30 910.52 OPEC 165 245.66 301.78 0.25 1187.00 Overall 723 133.63 296.81 0.02 1700.00 Labour Force FSU 140 13621277 21562330 1734672 77074406 19.91 .000 IEA 280 23798984 33942132 1931619 159144632 OAPEC 138 6427296 6786129 303604 27742106 OPEC 165 10870575 12351137 332190 54196350 Overall 723 15561972 25022196 303604 159144632 Oil Production FSU 140 1174.84 2785.94 0.21 10757.91 25.12 .000 IEA 280 856.94 2157.16 3.19 12342.77 OAPEC 138 2163.83 3010.28 47.40 11840.68 OPEC 165 2875.40 2556.94 392.72 11840.68 Overall 723 1628.59 2679.15 0.21 12342.77 Gas Production FSU 140 2870.49 6462.89 0.00 24317.91 1.46 .223 IEA 280 2338.43 5694.76 0.18 30005.00 OAPEC 138 1680.55 2006.22 68.51 7104.88 OPEC 165 2308.40 2188.92 38.85 8169.49 Overall 723 2309.03 4749.99 0.00 30005.00 Overall, the dataset is made up of 723 observations over the 14-year period for the 52 OPCs who belong to the four IGOs in the international oil industry. In Table 5.1, the range between the minimum and maximum values for all variables are high showing the possibility of differences in the sizes of the oil and gas industries of the countries understudy. This view is supported by the size of the deviations from the sample means. For example, the mean of the oil production output of 1628.59 thousands of barrels of crude per day has an even larger standard deviation of 2679.15. 78 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh Shifting attention towards the individual IGOs, for oil reserves, OPEC holds the highest oil reserves (M=78.76, SD=75.83). OAPEC follows in second place (M=56.18, SD= 81.33), followed by IEA (M= 9.09, SD= 34.5) and FSU (M= 8.53, SD= 18.30). There is evidence of significant differences in the oil reserves capacities of the various IGOs (F=71.32, p<0.001). The reserve endowment ranking seem to change a little when gas reserves are considered. Although, OPEC member states possess the largest amounts of gas reserves (M=245.66, SD= 301.78), they are closely followed by FSU member states (M= 202.98, SD= 497.81) who were seen to possess the least oil reserves. In third place for gas reserves is OAPEC (M= 147.93, SD= 232.06). Finally, IEA members hold the least gas reserves on average (M= 25.88, SD= 54.29). Similarly, significant differences were identified in the average gas levels of member states (F=25.07, p<0.001). For the levels of labour force employed, IEA has the highest number of workers (M=23798984, SD=33942132), FSU comes second (M=13621277, SD=21562330) and then OPEC (M=10870575, SD=12351137). The F-statistic of 19.91 with p-value less than 0.1% also indicates significant differences among the labour force of the IGOs. Although it is possible that higher resource endowment can lead to higher production levels and hence higher efficiencies compared to less endowed IGOs, it is equally possible that higher resource endowment can lead to lower efficiencies if the production capabilities of these countries are not streamlined adequately to ensure higher production levels. The oil production outputs in thousands of barrel per day of the four IGOs are also significantly different (F=25.12, p<0.001). OPEC member states produce the highest levels of oil outputs (M=2875.40, SD=2556.94). This is encouraging since they also are the highest endowed IGO in terms of oil reserves. OAPEC is the second largest producer of oil outputs (M=2163.83, SD=3010.28) followed by FSU. IEA has the lowest oil production levels (M=856.94, SD=2157.16). It is also clear that with gas production levels, FSU leads the 79 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh pack (M=2870.49, SD=6462.89). FSU, however, is closely followed by the remaining IGOs. Indeed, there are no statistically significant differences in the average gas production levels of the various IGOs (F=1.46, p=0.223). Summary of the annual statistics of the data have been attached in Appendix C. A test of differences for each variable over time is also included in Appendix C. The One way Anova test of differences for each variable are not statistically significant, giving an indication of little variation in the industry over time, and providing justification for using a pooled frontier for efficiency estimation. The final stage in the data description process in DEA estimation is the isotonicity test. The isotonicity property of DEA requires a positive correlation between all inputs and outputs (Cooper, Seiford, & Zhu, 2011; Thanassoulis, 2001). This means that, its expected consumption of more inputs will lead to higher outputs. The inputs and outputs correlation test in a nonparametric frontier analysis is necessary for robust analysis. The correlations between the inputs and outputs are presented in Table 5.2. Table 5.2: Correlations between Inputs and Outputs Oil Gas Oil Gas Labour Production Production Reserves Reserves Force Oil Production 1 Gas Production .673** 1 Oil Reserves .749** .157** 1 Gas Reserves .526** .618** .261** 1 Labour Force .435** .764** -.032 .280** 1 ** p < 0.01 From Table 5.2, all inputs from the table are positively and significantly associated with both outputs. For example, whereas the correlation between oil production and oil reserves is 0.749, the correlation between gas production and labour force is 0.764. All correlations are significant at the 1% level therefore the isotonciity characteristic of DEA which requires 80 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh that an output should not decrease with an input increase (Dyson et al., 2001; Honma & Hu, 2008; Wanke, Barros, & Faria, 2015) is not violated. The intuition for the positive associations is that employing more inputs is expected to lead to higher production levels. It is not surprising that there is a stronger correlation between oil production and oil reserves as compared to the correlation between oil production and gas reserves. This is because oil production emanates from oil reserves. Same remark is evident for gas production as well. Finally, there are relatively weaker correlations among the inputs. Even the correlation between the oil reserves and labour force is not statistically significant (r = -0.032, p > 0.05). The weak or no correlations among the inputs is also an encouraging sign in DEA estimations since it provides evidence of the discriminatory power of the inputs used (Dyson et al., 2001). This means that the inputs actually measure different dimensions in the production process. 5.2 Scale Elasticity in the International Oil Industry The first objective is to test the scale elasticity properties of the industry. The assumption on returns to scale of the underlying technology is one of the important a priori assumptions necessary to employ DEA (Badunenko, 2008). While the production frontier can exhibit either constant return to scale or variable return to scale, previous researchers have failed to statistically test it. The consequence is that research finding from previous study may be biased since the appropriate production technology may not have been assumed. Here, Simar and Wilson’s (2002) bootstrap-based scale elasticity test is used. The elasticity property of the frontier is first tested on annual bases, thereby assuming heterogeneity in the production technology over time (Canhoto & Dermine, 2003). Subsequently the data for the entire period is pooled and tested to see the scale elasticity based on the assumption of technological homogeneity (Canhoto & Dermine, 2003). This procedure is adopted by 81 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh Gómez-Calvet, Conesa, Gómez-Calvet, and Tortosa-Ausina (2014). In here, the mean of ratio is used following Tortosa-Ausina et al. (2008). The intuition behind this test is that as long as the difference between the CRS and VRS efficiency score is small we will not have the statistical confidence to reject the null hypothesis of CRS (Mahlberg & Url, 2010). Therefore, if the p-value for the test statistic is greater than the significance level we will fail to reject the null hypothesis of CRS, otherwise we will reject the null hypothesis in favour of a VRS frontier. Result of this test are presented in Table 5.3. The unbiased test statistic is from bootstrap DEA estimates based on 2000 replications. Table 5.3: Scale Elasticity Tests (Simar & Wilson, 2002) using the Mean of Ratios Year S test p-value Decision 2000 0.8307 0.22 CRS 2001 0.8351 0.27 CRS 2002 0.8362 0.29 CRS 2003 0.8671 0.42 CRS 2004 0.8585 0.25 CRS 2005 0.8535 0.28 CRS 2006 0.8529 0.19 CRS 2007 0.8134 0.19 CRS 2008 0.7966 0.24 CRS 2009 0.7995 0.29 CRS 2010 0.8309 0.22 CRS 2011 0.8371 0.29 CRS 2012 0.8337 0.33 CRS 2013 0.8251 0.25 CRS Overall/Pooled 0.8070 0.051 CRS From Table 5.3 the result of the test values for each year from 2000 to 2013 as well as the p-values provides a statistical indication that size does not matter in the international oil industry of OPCs. This is because the p-values of each of the 14 years is greater than the 5 percent significance level. By implication, we fail to reject the null hypotheses and conclude that the production frontier exhibits constant scale elasticities for each year. Additionally, test results based on the pooled frontier also provide same conclusions since the p-value of 0.051 is larger than the 0.05 significance level. 82 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh This provides both statistical and empirical justification to adopt CRS in all DEA efficiency estimations in this work. This means that OPCs are of similar production capacities irrespective of the size of the country’s oil and gas resource endowment. Even the pooled data for the period also indicate same. The justification for the finding is probably because of the capital intensive nature of oil and gas exploration and production activities. Indeed, Szilas (1985) underscores that investment in the oil and gas industry, no matter the level of involvement, requires heavy monetary and logistical commitments. This means that, previous study by Hawdon (2003) on inter-country efficiency in the gas industry is questionable since he failed to adequately test for the returns to scale property. The reliance of Hawdon (2003) on t-test and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for the returns to scale resulted in mixed findings. This current work therefore provides basis for the adoption of CRS by subsequent papers that aim to assess efficiency of OPCs. 5.3 Meta and Group Analysis of Inter- and Intra-IGO Performance This section provides results and details of meta and group frontier analysis as well as technological gap ratio estimated using the metafrontier approach of DEA. The metafrontier analysis provides a meaningful model for the comparison of efficiencies among and between groups of countries (Barnes & Revoredo-Giha, 2011). These results aid in achieving the second and third objectives of this study. Whereas objective two is aimed at assessing the intra and inter group performance of countries in each IGO, objective three aims to provide empirical comparison of the performance of various IGOs using the Simar Zenlenyuk adapted Li Test (SZAL). Whereas the intra group assessment looks at the performance of countries in a particular IGO, inter group assessment compares the performance of different blocks of IGOs. 83 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh The metafrontier approach provides a curve enveloping all the group frontiers constructed for assessing DEA scores for each group and presents an empirical application using cross- country data (O’Donnell et al., 2008b). Metafrontier analysis ensures that heterogeneous countries or groups can be examined based on their distance from an identical and common frontier (Assaf, Barros, & Josiassen, 2010). Therefore, the metafrontier approach fills in these disadvantages by allowing comparison across heterogeneous groups (Battese & Rao, 2002a; O’Donnell et al., 2008a). The metafrontier provides benchmarking for all sample in the data set separately from the frontier in which they are members (Kounetas, Mourtos, & Tsekouras, 2009). The frontier analysis can be used by decision makers to pinpoint non performing units among the whole in other to orientate policy prescriptions for them. The section is divided into 2 parts. The first part considers only intra-group performance evaluation. The second part then considers similarities and differences in the performance of different IGOs (inter-group performance) in the international oil industry. Intra-Group Performance Evaluation Tables 5.4, 5.5, 5.6, and 5.7 presents results of metafrontier analysis for FSU, IEA, OAPEC and OPEC respectively. For each table, bootstrapped meta-efficiency scores, bootstrapped group efficiency scores and bootstrapped technological gap ratios (TGR) are reported. The meta-efficiency scores measure efficiency relative to the metafrontier which represents the existing state of knowledge in the industry irrespective of the particular group a country belongs. This is decomposed into the groups-specific efficiency and the TGR. Whereas the group efficiency scores represent the existing state of knowledge, the physical, social and economic environment that characterizes a particular group, the TGR provides a measure of how close the group frontier is to the metafrontier (O’Donnell et al., 2008a). In other words, the group efficiencies allow for an investigation of the relationship between different 84 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh groups-specific technologies and is used to explain the differences in the production opportunities attributed to the resource endowments of a particular group. The value of the TGR explains the technological progress or regress between the group and the industry as a whole (Battese & Rao, 2002a). Therefore, a score closer to 1 signifies lower discrepancy between the group-specific frontier and the meta frontier (Ahmed & Krishnasamy, 2013). The TGRs of countries in each IGO have therefore been ranked in order of importance. Table 5.4: Intra-Group Analysis of FSU Member States Country IGO Meta Efficiencies Group Efficiencies TGR Rank Azerbaijan FSU 3.2583 1.4763 0.4531 4 Belarus FSU 2.0023 1.1233 0.5610 2 Georgia FSU 24.7591 7.2097 0.2912 9 Kazakhstan FSU 4.3545 1.3011 0.2988 8 Kyrgyzstan FSU 24.6788 8.7513 0.3546 6 Russia FSU 2.8920 1.3199 0.4564 3 Tajikistan FSU 68.0373 9.6844 0.1423 10 Turkmenistan FSU 1.3249 1.2247 0.9244 1 Ukraine FSU 4.9945 1.6374 0.3278 7 Uzbekistan FSU 2.7007 1.1421 0.4229 5 Geomean 6.0057 2.2911 0.3815 ANOVA F 62.548 70.715 99.771 Sig. .000 .000 .000 Kruskal Wallis 𝝌𝟐 125.773 116.754 120.802 Sig. .000 .000 .000 The intra group analysis of the 10 member states of the FSU listed in Table 5.4 shows their meta-efficiency, group efficiency, TGR and the ranking of the TGR based on a dataset from 2000 to 2013. Starting with the group efficiencies, it can be observed that no country has efficiency score exactly equal to 1. This is as a result of the bootstrap based bias correction of efficiency scores and is consistent with Hawdon’s (2003) assertion that in real market systems probability of a unit being exactly 100 percent efficient is zero. This notwithstanding, best performing countries in this IGO include Belarus (1.1233), Uzbekistan (1.1421), and Turkmenistan (1.2247). However, most other countries in the FUS 85 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh have high inefficiency levels. For example Georgia, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan all have group efficiency score greater than 1. Even worse is when the meta-efficiency scores are considered. Except Turkmenistan, all other members of this FSU have meta-efficiency scores greater than 2.00. The disparities between the meta-efficiencies and group efficiencies give an indication that countries in this IGO are not producing using the best state of knowledge in the industry. Even the TGRs for all members except Turkmenistan (0.9244) and Belarus (0.5610) are below 50 percent. The average TGRs of all countries in the IGO is about 0.3815 signifying that on average countries in FSU produced using only 38.15 percent of the existing state of knowledge in the industry. Ranking of TGRs show that Turkmenistan, Belarus, Russia, and Azerbaijan are among the best countries in the FSU to capitalize on the existing global technological spill overs whilst Tajikistan, Georgia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine are trailing. Also reported in the table are result of Anova and Kruskal Wallis test of differences. Based on the results there are significant differences in the performance of individual countries in this IGO for all three indicators. This shows that not all countries are equally good or poor in this industry. Summary of the Tukey HSD pairwise comparison test as reported in Appendix D, for example shows that whereas Turkmenistan has the significantly highest TGR, the TGRs of Azerbaijan and Belarus are not statistically significantly different. Turkmenistan’s higher TGR of 0.9244 is far above that of the other countries in this FSU. The closest country is Belarus with TGR of 0.5610. Turkmenistan’s higher TGR may be a payoff from their government’s continual policy of modernizing and expanding infrastructure in the oil and gas industry by increasing investment to develop its resources and the implementation of market reforms to facilitate intensive production and supply of more gas (EIA, 2013). Belarus is the next best performing country in the FSU. The Belarusian government after the collapse of the Soviet Union took control of the country’s 86 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh development and ensured high level of government’s involvement in the oil sector (Ghedrovici & Ostapenko, 2013). The huge state support for the sector possibly has accounted for their level performance. The strong industry that was maintained after the union collapse could also be a factor to their TGR of 0.5610. Another reason is their close links with the developed EU market that has advanced the level of orientation and the quality of market reforms (Gaytaranov, 2013; Ghedrovici & Ostapenko, 2013). The country’s performance is also due to their high level of human capital (Podkorytova & Raskina, 2014). Russia has the third largest TGR in the IGO. Russia’s performance can be associated with the policy of allowing the participation of private and foreign investors to manage and extract large oil and gas prospects (EIA, 2013). The investment include allowing international oil companies like Lukoil, Surgutneftegas, Novatek and Tatneft to invest and participate in the industry with tax incentives. Also, the use of advance technology and improved recovery techniques has accelerated oil production output from existing oil deposits and contributed to their supply improvement (EIA, 2013). This notwithstanding, Russia needs more efforts in the industry in order to move their TGR above the 0.50 mark. The low performance of most countries in the FSU may be attributable to their historical developments. Members of this IGO are states that were formed after the collapse of the Soviet Union (Minescu et al., 2008; Podkorytova & Raskina, 2014). The collapse generated diverse legal interpretation regarding boundary issues (EIA, 2013). The new independent states started the development of the large deposits of untapped oil and gas resource endowment with diverse and sometimes adversarial approaches individually (EIA, 2013). Therefore, the initial rivalries among states and the individual approach towards oil and gas development may have contributed to the poor performances of states. This view can also be seen based on the ideas of the theory of social networks which explains the importance of good ties among states as investment in the accumulation and management of social 87 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh resources and capital (Katz et al., 2004). In other words, if states have strong ties they are bound to help themselves improve their social capital. However, when states have adversarial ties, as is seen in the FSU, the consequence may be detrimental to the wellbeing of these states. In addition when countries are operating alone, their performance may not be as good as if they were in a group as indicated in the theory of social facilitation (Markus, 1978) because the external presence is not sufficient to influence their behaviors. Further to this, because these countries are not well institutionalised or do not follow any institutionalized behaviors as “regulative, normative, and cognitive structures and activities that provide stability and meaning for social behavior” (Scott, 1995) their performance are affected negatively base on institutional theory views. Their low performance may in part also be attributable to the fact that most FSU countries lack innovative technology, the infrastructure and investment to support the oil and gas sectors (EIA, 2014). 88 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh Table 5.5: Intra-Group Analysis of IEA Member States Country IGO Meta Efficiencies Group Efficiencies TGR Rank Australia IEA 2.5025 2.3667 0.9457 4 Austria IEA 2.3571 2.2408 0.9506 3 Canada IEA 1.4636 1.1617 0.7938 16 Czech Republic IEA 2.0217 1.9230 0.9512 2 Denmark IEA 1.3178 1.1886 0.9020 11 France IEA 1.2901 1.1651 0.9031 10 Germany IEA 2.9925 2.3907 0.7989 15 Greece IEA 1.8586 1.7283 0.9299 5 Hungary IEA 1.8614 1.7059 0.9165 8 Italy IEA 3.0119 2.7236 0.9043 9 Japan IEA 1.3818 1.2702 0.9192 7 Netherlands IEA 1.3123 1.1573 0.8819 13 Norway IEA 1.2524 1.1629 0.9285 6 NZ IEA 1.7235 1.2943 0.7510 18 Poland IEA 3.9728 3.5796 0.9010 12 Slovakia IEA 2.2430 2.1672 0.9662 1 Spain IEA 2.4080 1.3765 0.5716 20 Turkey IEA 2.5924 1.5230 0.5875 19 UK IEA 1.4797 1.1413 0.7713 17 US IEA 1.4600 1.2827 0.8786 14 Geomean 1.9140 1.6255 0.8493 ANOVA F 30.269 34.467 46.729 Sig. .000 .000 .000 Kruskal Wallis 𝝌𝟐 98.333 98.453 60.007 Sig. .000 .000 .000 The intra group analysis of the 20 member states of the IEA listed in Table 5.5 shows their meta-efficiency, group efficiency, TGR and the ranking of the TGR based on a dataset from 2000 to 2013. Starting with the group efficiencies, it can be observed that the efficiency score of all the countries in the IEA are quite close to 1 and are mostly similar to each other. Similarly, no country has a score of exactly 1 as result of the bootstrap based bias correction of efficiency scores. However, best performing countries in this IGO include UK (1.1413), Netherlands (1.1573), Canada, Norway and France having score slightly above (1.16). This notwithstanding, some countries in this IGO seem to have efficiency scores that are quite different from the rest. These countries are Poland (3.5796), Italy (2.7236), Germany 89 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh (2.3907), Australia (2.3667) and Austria (2.2408). In addition, the meta-efficiency scores of all the countries do not seem far apart from their group efficiency scores. This gives an indication that countries in this IGO may be producing using the best state of knowledge in the industry. Even the technology gap ratio for all members except Spain (0.5716), Turkey (0.5875) and New Zealand (0.575) are above 0.77. The average technology gap ratio of all countries in the IGO is about 0.8493 signifying that, on average countries in IEA produced using about 84.93 percent of the existing state of knowledge in the industry. Ranking of TGRs show that Slovakia, Czech Republic, Austria, and Australia are the best producers in the IGO whilst New Zealand, Turkey and Spain are trailing. Also reported in the table are result of Anova and Kruskal Wallis test of differences. Based on the results there are significant differences in the performance of individual countries in this IGO for all three indicators. This shows that all the countries are not performing at the same level of efficiency in this industry. Summary of the Tukey HSD pairwise comparison test as reported in Appendix D, for example shows that all the countries have significantly higher TGRs than Spain and Turkey. For this IGO, all members have relatively high TGRs. Even Spain which places 20th in the rankings has a TGR which is greater than 0.5. The performance of the countries in this IGO is instructive. Because most of the states are very close to the frontier after the bootstrap estimates. This possibly may be as a result of the strong ties that exist between the countries and the fact that the IGO membership are mostly drawn from the industrial regions of Western Europe and North America (Colgan, Keohane, & Van de Graaf, 2011). The IEA is part of a much stronger OECD with a framework of achieving high sustainable economic growth for it member countries in the process of economic development (Bamberger, Scott, Agency, & Development, 2004). As stated in the aim of IEA, the organization promotes rational policy through co-operative relations with industry and other international 90 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh organizations (Bamberger et al., 2004). Social network theory suggests that the structure of a group determines the access and flow of resources in the network (Daly, 2012). The IEA’s clear concern for compliance monitoring, execution and evaluation of efficiency policies in line with the continuous transfer of policy to member countries also might have contributed to the performance observed (Jollands et al., 2010). It can therefore be implied that the activities and ways of operation by individual countries in the IEA will be very similar to that of other members and is consistent with the theory that organizational structure and process helps achieve effectiveness and efficiency in their desired outcomes as predicted by institutional theory. Therefore, it is expected that all members will also have close to similar levels of efficiency. The IEA policy for the development and technology transfer remains a key factor for the cooperation among member states (Colgan et al., 2011). This notwithstanding, as Taylor et al. (2010) posits, the relatively lower performance of countries like Spain (0.5716) and Turkey (0.5875) scores may be attributable to the differences in production infrastructure across countries. Table 5.6: Intra-Group Analysis of OAPEC Member States Country IGO Meta Efficiencies Group Efficiencies TGR Rank Algeria OAPEC 2.4920 1.1606 0.4657 9 Bahrain OAPEC 1.3046 1.1399 0.8738 3 Egypt OAPEC 3.5822 1.8823 0.5255 8 Iraq OAPEC 4.2290 2.4220 0.5727 5 Kuwait OAPEC 1.1972 1.1299 0.9438 1 Libya OAPEC 2.4402 1.2840 0.5262 7 Qatar OAPEC 1.2729 1.1669 0.9167 2 Saudi Arabia OAPEC 1.4135 1.0949 0.7746 4 Syria OAPEC 2.5099 1.4184 0.5651 6 Tunisia OAPEC 2.6699 1.2394 0.4642 10 Geomean 2.1083 1.3469 0.6389 ANOVA F 14.469 10.065 421.286 Sig. .000 .000 .000 Kruskal Wallis 𝝌𝟐 117.784 67.857 125.137 Sig. .000 .000 .000 91 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh Next IGO under consideration is the OAPEC whose membership comprises only Arab oil and gas producing countries. Results of the intra group analysis of the 10 member states of OAPEC shown in Table 5.6 are based on a dataset from 2000 to 2013. For their group efficiencies, it can be observed that the efficiency scores of most of the countries in the group are moderately high and not very far from the absolute efficiency score of 1. Judging by means of the group efficiency scores, best performing countries include Saudi Arabia (1.0949), Kuwait (1.1299), Bahrain (1.1399), Algeria (1.1606) and Qatar (1.1669). This notwithstanding three countries in this IGO seem to have efficiency scores that are quite high. These countries are Iraq (2.4220), Egypt (1.8823) and Syria (1.4184). In addition, the meta-efficiency scores are quite high and quite away from the absolute efficiency score of 1. There are quite small differences between the meta-efficiencies and group efficiencies giving an indication that countries in this IGO may be producing, to a large extent, close to the best state of knowledge in the industry. Even the technology gap ratio for all members except Tunisia (0.4642) and Algeria (0.4657) are above 0.525. The average technology gap ratio of all countries in the IGO is about 0.6389 signifying that on average countries in OAPEC produced using 63.89 percent of the existing state of knowledge in the industry. Ranking of TGRs, together with the TukeyHSD results in Appendix D, show that Kuwait and Qatar are the best performing countries in the IGO followed by Bahrain, and then Saudi Arabia. Tunisia and Algeria are trailing. Anova and Kruskal Wallis test of differences show some significant differences in the performances of individual countries in this IGO for all three indicators. The results show the performance of members to be moderate to high for almost all the member countries. OAPEC is made up of Arab countries having a distinct characteristic of being close in same location in the Middle East (Colgan et al., 2011). The objective of organization to support member countries in the effective use of their resources by 92 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh sponsoring joint venture is very informative. This may have been a contributory factor to the performance of its member countries. Which is evident in the TGRs in Table 5.6. Although some member states have quite high TGRs, a few other states have lower than 0.5 TGRs, this shows some level of dispersion in the performance of member states. This can be viewed through the lenses of the institutional theory. It is possible that the regulative, normative, and cognitive structures and activities that are required to provide stability for behavior of member states (Scott, 1995) may not be widely followed by all states. This is because the theory posits that, if members strictly followed the organizational structures and ideologies, we expect members to look and act the same (DiMaggio & Powell, 1983). This is especially true because some members of the OAPEC group, such as Iraq, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Algeria, and Qatar, are also members of other similar IGOs like OPEC. This means that there can be the possibility of conflicts in institutional guidelines of the various IGOs, hence states may not follow the laid down policies in the group. This may be the reason for the differences in performances of states in this IGO. Table 5.7: Intra-Group Analysis of OPEC Member States Country IGO Meta Efficiencies Group Efficiencies TGR Rank Algeria OPEC 2.4920 1.0820 0.4342 10 Angola OPEC 1.5269 1.1925 0.7810 4 Ecuador OPEC 1.4769 1.1941 0.8085 3 Iran OPEC 8.3536 2.5220 0.3019 12 Iraq OPEC 4.2290 2.6755 0.6326 6 Kuwait OPEC 1.1972 1.1282 0.9424 1 Libya OPEC 2.4402 1.2646 0.5182 9 Nigeria OPEC 5.5772 3.2812 0.5883 7 Qatar OPEC 1.2729 1.1826 0.9290 2 Saudi Arabia OPEC 1.4135 1.0934 0.7735 5 UAE OPEC 2.1083 1.1957 0.5671 8 Venezuela OPEC 5.4166 2.0236 0.3736 11 Geomean 2.5228 1.5201 0.6026 ANOVA F 118.877 77.475 218.370 Sig. .000 .000 .000 Kruskal Wallis 𝝌𝟐 1473694 118.339 153.835 Sig. .000 .000 .000 93 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh The final IGO under consideration is OPEC which has membership comprising oil and gas producing countries from the Middle East, Africa and South America. This is one of the foremost and most influential IGOs in the international oil industry (Ike & Lee, 2014) therefore their performance dynamics are very important. Results from the analysis of the 12 member countries are detailed in Table 5.7. For their group efficiencies, it can be observed that the efficiency scores of most of the countries in the group are slightly high although not very far from the absolute efficiency score of 1. In this group, Algeria (1.0820), Saudi Arabia (1.0934), and Kuwait (1.1282) are among the best performers in terms of group efficiency. Other countries like Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Ecuador, and Angola have scores ranging from 1.1826 to 1.1957. For other countries like Venezuela (2.0236), Iran (2.5220), Iraq (2.6755), and Nigeria (3.2812), their group efficiency scores are very high showing high levels of inefficiency by these countries within the IGO. Meta-efficiency scores of OPEC countries seem also high. However, there are some countries with similar group efficiency scores and meta-efficiencies. Kuwait for example has a group efficiency score of 1.1282 whiles its meta- efficiency score is 1.1972. These two scores are not far apart signifying that for some countries in the IGO, they are producing using similar states of knowledge as available in the industry. For some other members of this IGO, however, their meta-efficiency scores are far apart from their group efficiencies. Algeria, for example which had the best group efficiency score of 1.0820 has a meta-efficiency score of 2.4920. Meaning that it does not adequately use the best available state of knowledge in its production efforts. A better sense of the disparities between the group efficiencies and the meta-efficiencies can be gained by reference to the technology gap ratios. For all member states, except Venezuela (0.3736), Iran (0.3019) and Algeria (0.4342), TGRs are above 0.50. The average technology gap ratio of all countries in the IGO is about 0.6026 signifying that on average countries in OPEC produced using about 60.26 percent of the existing state of 94 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh knowledge in the industry. Ranking of TGRs show that Kuwait, Qatar, Ecuador, Angola and Saudi Arabia are the best producers in the IGO whilst Libya, Algeria, Venezuela and Iran are trailing. Anova and Kruskal Wallis tests of differences also reveal significant differences in the scores of these countries. OPEC member countries, unlike OAPEC, are a diverse set with many shared characteristics (Al-Rashed & León, 2015). These countries are at different stages of social and economic development with different economic structures (Al-Rashed & León, 2015). This may be the reason for the large variations in the TGR estimates of member countries as shown in Table 5.7. Countries like Kuwait, Qatar and Ecuador have scores above 0.8, whiles Angola, Saudi Arabia and Iraq have scores above 0.6. Iran, Algeria and Venezuela have TGRs below 0.5. As an institution, it is expected that the member countries follow similar processes as laid down rules by OPEC. This is expected to result in similar performance levels as the proponents of the institutional theory postulate (Lincoln, 1995). Differences in the performance is an indication that the members do not well follow the institutional policies and frameworks available. This may be the reason for the large differences in their TGR scores. For OPEC, evidence abound in literature to show that some members have exhibited loose adherence to announced production cutbacks (OPEC, 2002). From the regional point of view, OPEC countries can be categorised as belonging to one of four geographical regions: sub-Saharan African countries (Angola and Nigeria), North African countries (Algeria and Libya), Middle East countries (Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE) and South American countries (Ecuador and Venezuela). This diversity in membership may also be the reason for the differences in TGRs since as the proponents of Social Network Theory argue, when members do not share similar social bonds performance may be different (Barnes, 1954; Bott, 1957; Granovetter, 1973). The main purpose of OPEC is to protect the collective interests of individual member states and 95 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh to ensure balance in their international oil market transactions (Desta, 2003). But there seems to be a lack of co-ordination on broader policy issues impacting on the common interests of members (Arena, 2008). This has resulted in most countries hardly adhering to the organization’s policy leading to them adopting their own development in dealing with multilateral transaction (Desta, 2003). Hence the large variation their performance and efficiency score. This is true of the social network theory which argues that there are both positive and negative consequences of membership in social network. The theory explains that states are said to be socially networked when they tend to think and behave similarly because they are connected. However, because the ties between states in the group may be weak members may not have the same level of success. Again issues of internal collective action challenges and the rise of new producers can explain the differences in their performance (Goldthau & Witte, 2011). The practice of supply restrictions of production output may be the reason for low performance of some of its members (Desta, 2003; Ike & Lee, 2014) like Venezuela and Angola. Inter-Group Performance Evaluation This part analysis the inter-group performances of the IGOs in this study. Tables 5.8 summarizes the results of metafrontier analysis with respect to the four IGOs under study. The average meta-efficiencies, group efficiencies and technology gap ratios of each IGO is first presented in Table 5.8. Values in this table are then presented graphically in Figure 5.1 for better conceptualization of deductions. IGOs are also ranked based on their TGRs to identify the best performing ones in order of importance. 96 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh Table 5.8: Inter-IGO Metafrontier Results IGO Meta Efficiencies Group Efficiencies TGR Rank FSU 6.0057 2.2911 0.3815 4 IEA 1.9140 1.6255 0.8493 1 OAPEC 2.1083 1.3469 0.6389 2 OPEC 2.5228 1.5201 0.6026 3 Results of the inter-group performance comparison of the four IGOs under consideration as detailed in Table 5.8 are based on the dataset from the period 2000 to 2013. The group efficiency scores of member states of each of these IGOs as computed are quite high. Since the group efficiencies are computed relative to different production frontiers, it is not appropriate to compare the group’s specific efficiency scores of these different groups (Canhoto & Dermine, 2003; Dietsch & Lozano-Vivas, 2000). It can however be noted that, whereas OAPEC member states are producing at about 74% (1/1.3469 = 0.74) of their potential capacity, FSU states are only producing at 44% (1/2.2911 = 0.44) of their potential production capacity. IEA and OPEC states are producing at 62% and 66% of their potential production capacities respectively. The meta-efficiency scores, can however, be compared since they are all based on the same pooled frontier. Meta-efficiencies are quite high indicating more inefficiencies since most scores are away from the efficiency score of 1. The IEA (1.9140) is the only IGO with a meta-efficiency score that is quite similar to their group efficiency score. The differences between the meta-efficiencies and group efficiencies of OAPEC and OPEC are fairly high but not too far away from each other. Again, scores for FSU seem to show quite high differences between the two efficiency scores. This is an indication that, as compared to other IGOs, IEA member states are producing using the best state of knowledge in the industry since their TGR at 0.8493. OAPEC and OPEC are producing, to some extent, close to the best state of knowledge in 97 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh the industry with TGRs slightly above 0.60. FSU could only manage 0.3815 of the state of knowledge available in the international oil industry. Also, the TGRs of all IGOs except FSU (0.3815) are above 0.6026. This means that given the inputs IEA is producing at 84.93% close to the available state of production technology in the international oil industry. OAPEC and OPEC are producing at 63.89% and 60.26% respectively. 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 FSU IEA OAPEC OPEC FSU IEA OAPEC OPEC FSU IEA OAPEC OPEC Meta Efficiencies Group Efficiencies TGR Figure 5.1: Distribution of Metafrontier Scores of the IGOs Figure 5.1 presents a graphical depiction of the distribution of the metafrontier scores of the IGOs being considered. The graphical view allows for easy understanding of how different scores of specific IGOs are from other ones. The Figure shows the meta-efficiencies, group efficiencies as well as the technological gap ratio of these IGOs. From Figure 5.1, it is clearly seen that the meta-efficiency score, on average, of FSU is higher than all other IGOs, signifying higher levels of inefficiencies by member state relative to the best possible technology in the industry as compare with member states of other IGOs. IEA has the closest 98 EFFICIENCY SCORES/TGR University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh meta-efficiencies, on average, to the efficiency score of 1. When each IGO’s meta- efficiencies are compared with the group efficiency scores, it is clear that unlike other IGOs, the meta and group efficiencies of IEA states are quite similar. Disparity between the meta- efficiency and group efficiency scores of FSU is much more pronounced. The result is that FSU has the lowest TGR. IEA, however, has clearly, the highest technology gap ratio, followed closely by OAPEC and OPEC. What is not obvious in these inter-group comparison is whether differences in the meta-efficiencies and TGRs of these IGOs are statistically significant. This is the basis for the pairwise comparisons presented in Table 5.9. To achieve the third objective of this study, a pairwise comparison of the scores of these IGOs are presented based on a dataset from 2000 to 2013. The performance of the four IGOs are first compared using traditional point estimate comparison statistical techniques. Independent t-test and Mann Whitney U tests are used to conduct pairwise comparison of the means and ranks of the various IGOs. Whiles these tests are well known, it only compares point estimates and neglect the distribution of the entire dataset (Li, 1996; Simar & Zelenyuk, 2006). To cater for this weakness, the SZAL test, which uses kernel density estimators to compare the distribution of the scores are used here. Notice that in Table 5.9, test statistics are presented together with p-values in parenthesis. Notice also that group efficiencies are not compared in this table since the group efficiency scores of the various IGOs are based on separate production frontiers. 99 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh Table 5.9: Pairwise Comparisons of Inter-IGO Performance T-test Mann Whitney SZAL FSU - IEA Meta Eff. 6.288 (0.000)*** 7462 (0.000)*** 27.75 (0.000)*** TGR -21.997 (0.000)*** 3080 (0.000)*** 67.38 (0.000)*** FSU - OAPEC Meta Eff. 6.114 (0.000)*** 4390 (0.000)*** 16.77 (0.000)*** TGR -9.854 (0.000)*** 3129 (0.000)*** 33.28 (0.000)*** FSU – OPEC Meta Eff. 5.706 (0.000)*** 6865 (0.000)*** 17.45 (0.000)*** TGR -8.602 (0.000)*** 5326 (0.000)*** 19.14 (0.000)*** IEA – OAPEC Meta Eff. -2.464 (0.015)* 18015 (0.261) 4.199 (0.000)*** TGR 11.055 (0.000)*** 7804 (0.000)*** 30.78 (0.000)*** IEA – OPEC Meta Eff. -6.021 (0.000)*** 18624 (0.001)** 2.992 (0.001)** TGR 12.365 (0.000)*** 8887 (0.000)*** 35.77 (0.000)*** OAPEC - OPEC Meta Eff. -3.654 (0.000)*** 9746.5 (0.031)* 2.88 (0.002)** TGR 1.219 (0.224) 10399 (0.194) 14.80 (0.000)*** ***p <0.001. **p<0.01. *p<0.05 values in parenthesis ( ) are the p-values First pairwise comparison in between the scores of FSU and IEA. This is a comparison of the two extremes, since previous results from Table 5.8 and Figure 5.1 revealed that FSU has the highest meta-inefficiency scores of 6.0057 and lowest TGR of 0.3815 whiles IEA had the best meta-efficiency score and TGR of 1.9140 and 0.8493 respectively. Statistical comparisons for all three estimators reveal significant differences in the meta-efficiencies and TGRs of FSU and IEA at the 0.1% significance level. IEA member states significantly outperform their FSU counterparts on both meta-efficiency and TGR. FSU states are next compared with OAPEC member states. Conclusions on both the meta-efficiencies and the TGR are similar to that revealed when FSU and IEA were compared. OAPEC states, on average, outperform FSU states on both indicators and on all three estimators of difference. OPEC member states also significantly outperform FSU states on both meta-efficiency and TGR. Results from the metafrontier analyses therefore reveal that FSU is the least performing IGO in the international oil industry. 100 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh Next, results for IEA are compared with that of OAPEC. From Figure 5.1, IEA is seen to have lower meta-inefficiencies but higher TGR on average. The question is however, whether these differences are statistically significant. Starting with the meta-efficiency scores, mixed results are observed between the results of the parametric t-test and its nonparametric counterpart- Mann Whitney test. Whereas results from the t-test reveal that IEA states have significantly lower average meta-inefficiencies than OAPEC states (t = - 2.464, p < 0.05), Mann Whitney shows no statistically significant differences in the ranks on these two IGOs (U = 18015, p = 0.261). It is amidst these disparities in conclusions that the utility of the SZAL test is seen. SZAL results show statistically significant differences in the distribution of meta-efficiency scores of IEA and OAPEC states (l = 4.199, p< 0.001). Results of the SZAL test is more reliable since it compares all members of one group against all members in the other. It is also based on nonparametric techniques which are important because of the nonparametric nature of DEA estimation technique. For the TGR, all three estimation techniques observe significant differences in the TGRs of IEA and OAPEC states. IEA states therefore significantly outperform OAPEC counterparts. This can be graphically observed with reference to Figure 5.2 which shows the kernel density distribution of the TGRs of the four IGOs. From Figure 5.2 shows it is clear that whereas the distribution of scores for IEA seem to gain more density towards the score of 1.0, that of OAPEC seem to peak between 0.4 and 0.6. 101 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh Technology Gap Ratios Figure 5.2: Distribution of Technological Gap Ratios IEA states are then statistically compared with OPEC states. Results are quite straightforward. There are statistically significant differences in the means, ranks and distributions of these two IGOs for both the meta-efficiency scores and TGRs. IEA has significantly lower meta-inefficiencies than OPEC and higher TGRs than OPEC on average. IEA states therefore significantly outperform OPEC states on both meta-efficiency scores and TGRs. From deductions made, it is clear that FSU is the worst performing IGO based on the metafrontier analyses, whiles IEA is the best IGO. What is not clear is whether any differences exist between the performances of OAPEC and OPEC. Both IGOs were seen in Table 5.8 to have meta-efficiencies slightly below 2.60 and TGRs slightly above 0.6. Although OAPEC has larger TGR of 0.6389 compared to OPEC’s of 0.6026 and smaller meta-efficiency of 2.1083 compared with OPEC’s of 2.5228, there question remains whether there are statistically significant differences. Just like previous comparisons, scores 102 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh of OAPEC and OPEC are statistically compared on all three estimators of differences. For the meta-efficiency scores, all three statistical approaches revealed significant differences between the scores of OAPEC and OPEC. OAPEC therefore has lower meta-inefficiencies compared with OPEC states on average. The result is not that straightforward when the TGRs are compared. For both point estimators, no statistically significant differences were observed between the scores of these two IGOs. There are no statistically significant differences in the means (t = 1.219, p = 0.224) and ranks (U = 10399, p = 0.194) of TGRs of OAPEC and OPEC member states. This notwithstanding, there is a statistically significant difference between the distribution of OAPEC and OPEC states (l = 14.80, p < 0.001). This can be inferred from Figure 5.2 where it is seen that whereas OAPEC gathers greater mass between 0.4 and 0.6 as well as between 0.8 and 1.0, OPEC states seem to be distributed relatively evenly across a wider range of scores. There are even quite a number of OPEC states with scores lower than the 0.4 mark whiles only few OAPEC members fall in this sector. OAPEC states therefore seem to outperform OPEC states in this regard. Statistical tests therefore reveal that IEA is the best performing IGO followed by OAPEC. OAPEC is closely followed by OPEC states. FSU is, however, in a distant fourth place on the ranking. The inadequate level of cooperation among governments of FSU countries probably underscores the reasons for its inefficiencies. There is no agreement coupled with differences in political and economic interest in the development of the oil resource in their respective countries (Aguilera, 2012). These essential ties, cooperation or networks as expounded by social network theory provides positive utility to countries in the oil industry, by influencing access to resources, reducing transactional costs and building interest based on coalitions (Lauber et al., 2008). However, absence of higher levels of such cooperation may be detrimental to the group interest since differences in the individual goals may not 103 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh engender group performance. Another issue that probably impacts on the higher inefficiency of members in this IGO is the concentration on internal use of the oil and gas produced by the FSU countries (EIA, 2013). Excessive government subsidies on the oil and gas supplied for domestic market can be a disincentive to higher production levels since economic benefits from higher production levels may not be realised by the producing organisations. Additionally, it is possible that because most oil produced in this region is heavy (EIA, 2013; Goldemberg, 2000), it is a contributory factor to their inefficiencies. Heavy oil requires enhanced oil recovery techniques. This stands to reason that since higher production technology is required for exploring heavy oil, as social network theory explains, countries stand to benefit from collaborations in terms of technology and research as well as reducing the transactional cost. Therefore the poor performance can be associated to lack of collaboration in technology and research in the industry (Goldemberg, 2000). The progress of IEA member countries may be explained by the distinct policy of collaboration by the IGO with groups across the international oil and gas industry (Bamberger et al., 2004). The performance of the group members can be attributed to the framework that allows for consultation with oil companies by member countries, to establish permanent basis for consulting in an appropriate manner for the request for information from individual oil companies on all important aspect of the oil industry. The agency allows participating countries to endure to promote cooperate relations with oil producing countries and consuming country. This probably has created ample opportunities for promoting dialogue and solution for members’ unique challenges. For OAPEC, the organization’s assistance in facilitating access to a more scientific and new technological developments in the industry could also account for their performances (OAPEC, 2015). OAPEC maintains its international collaboration with similar organizations by organizing and participation in expert scientific seminars particularly those concerned with regional and international 104 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh energy affairs (OAPEC, 2015) to improve on the group’s performance which is consistent with social facilitation theory. OPEC states are not far behind OAPEC on average. Their results are much more mixed in nature since whereas some OPEC states are performing quite well, other OPEC states seem to suffer because of the membership of this IGO. It is quite difficult to believe that OPEC states do not follow organizational guidelines and there is absence of policies by the IGO that governs the oil and gas exploration and production activities of member states like the FSU. Indeed, the several production quotas that critically affect the world oil prices is ample evidence of standardised organisational policies. Policies that consider global supply and associated prices have always been critical targets for OPEC members (Wolf, 2009). It stands to reason that, although there exist such policies for OPEC, and member states follow them, although sometimes loosely, these policies may not be ones that adequately benefit member states. Ike and Lee (2014) for example observe that production quotas of OPEC significantly affect the performance of OPEC states. Similarly, Desta (2003) believes that the practice of supply restrictions of production output may be the reason for low performance of some of its members. 5.4 Global Frontier Differences Analysis of Inter-IGO Performance Section 5.4 provides empirical reasons to help achieve objectives four and five of this study. Whiles objective four evaluates the inter-group frontier differences of the four IGOs, objective five determines whether there are statistically significant differences in the distribution of the technological indices (TI) between the various IGOs in the international oil industry. First, technology indices are estimated for all the IGOs. This is then followed by the frontier differences with respect to each individual IGO. Finally, results for the statistical comparison of the TIs for the various IGOs are presented. 105 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh The technological index, as expressed in equation (7) of the forth chapter of this work, measures the geometric mean of the efficiencies of all the observations relative to the frontier of the particular group under consideration (Asmild & Tam, 2007). In an output orientation, where inefficient DMUs have scores greater than 1, and superefficient DMUs have scores less than 1, when the TI of a particular group’s frontier is greater than one, it means that, on average that frontier is better than most of the observations. However, if the TI is less than 1, it means that the frontier is worse than most observations since on average DMUs are superefficient (score < 1 in output oriented model). In short, higher TIs signify better frontier on average. The average TI for each IGO is presented in Table 5.10 for each year from 2000 to 2013. The average for the pooled dataset is also included. Table 5.10: Technology Indices for the IGOs Tech Indices Tech Indices Tech Indices Tech Indices (OPEC) (IEA) (FSU) (OAPEC) 2000 0.75527 1.96932 0.62074 1.02384 2001 0.74587 2.00257 0.62470 0.99897 2002 0.75488 2.03378 0.63499 0.97886 2003 0.84372 2.05208 0.65695 1.00207 2004 0.78535 1.97307 0.61539 0.95344 2005 0.76513 1.91421 0.60085 0.91389 2006 0.76211 1.93629 0.60752 0.90892 2007 0.76679 2.15787 0.64191 0.97376 2008 0.74015 2.17450 0.64533 0.97248 2009 0.77802 2.12043 0.64587 0.95175 2010 0.76870 2.10701 0.65830 0.95040 2011 0.82907 2.24633 0.72576 1.04132 2012 0.80028 2.14188 0.70450 0.98054 2013 0.84220 2.24973 0.72976 1.03601 Pooled 0.78055 2.07384 0.64950 0.97680 It is obvious from Table 5.10 that, for each year, IEA has had the highest TI. The TI for IEA has consistently been greater than 1, signifying that most observations (especially from the other IGOs) have been inefficient relative to the IEA frontier. Although the score fluctuates above 2.00 mark, it declined below 2.00 in 2004, 2005, 2006. It however regained momentum in 2007, and has maintained TI scores above 2.10 mark since then. However, 106 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh even in the periods that IEA’s indices were lower 2.00 mark, its TI was still better than all the other IGOs. IEA’s worse TI of 1.9142 is even higher than OAPEC’s best of 1.04132. OAPEC seems to have technological indices fluctuating around 1.00. It has in effect had periods where its frontier is better than most observations, on average and periods where its frontier has not been that good on average. Whiles the TI of OPEC ranges from 0.7459 to 0.8438, the TIs of FSU have had the lowest levels of the technological indices having achieved their highest index of 0.7298 in 2013. FSU’s largest TI is even lower than the lowest of OPEC’s TIs. For the pooled dataset, on average, whereas IEA has the highest average of 2.07384 and OAPEC has a score of 0.97689, OPEC and FSU have scores of 0.78055 and 0.64950 respectively. These scores have been graphically presented in Figure 5.3. From Figure 5.3, it is obvious how far apart IEA’s scores are from the other IGOs. IEA technological indices appear to fluctuate, however on the whole it seems to be on an upward spiral. The scores for the FSU, OPEC and OAPEC seem quite close. They seem to be fluctuating around the same scores but there is no real progress in the indices over the period. Another observation is that, at no point do two curves intersect. Performance of these IGO’s seem to have remained stable over the years. 107 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh Tech Indices (OPEC) Tech Indices (IEA) Tech Indices (FSU) Tech Indices (OAPEC) 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 YEAR Figure 5.3: Distribution of Technological Indices Whereas the TI will give an indication of how good the frontier is, it provides no real indication of how well a particular group’s frontier is as compared to that of another specific group. This is where the global frontier differences (GFD) approach of Asmild and Tam (2007) gains utility. The TI are used in the estimation of the global frontier differences between the different groups. Results of the global frontier difference are presented subsequently. GFD measures and provides the overall conclusions about whether one group is superior to the other (Asmild & Tam, 2007). This approach provides an overall estimation of the differences between two frontiers or more importantly between groups. The frontier can differentiate between the efficiencies of two frontiers or two groups without considering shift overtime. The GFD tells by how much a particular IGO is far away from or close to another IGO. Mathematical notations of the index are presented in equation (8) of the fourth chapter of this work. Results are presented in Tables 5.11, 5.12, 5.13 and 5.14. 108 TECHNOLOGY INDEX University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh Table 5.11: Global Frontier Differences against OPEC Frontier YEAR OPEC IEA FSU OAPEC 2000 1.0000 2.6075 0.8219 1.3556 2001 1.0000 2.6849 0.8375 1.3393 2002 1.0000 2.6942 0.8412 1.2967 2003 1.0000 2.4322 0.7786 1.1877 2004 1.0000 2.5123 0.7836 1.2140 2005 1.0000 2.5018 0.7853 1.1944 2006 1.0000 2.5407 0.7972 1.1926 2007 1.0000 2.8142 0.8371 1.2699 2008 1.0000 2.9379 0.8719 1.3139 2009 1.0000 2.7254 0.8301 1.2233 2010 1.0000 2.7410 0.8564 1.2364 2011 1.0000 2.7095 0.8754 1.2560 2012 1.0000 2.6764 0.8803 1.2252 2013 1.0000 2.6713 0.8665 1.2301 Pooled 1.0000 2.5145 0.8010 1.2582 Table 5.11 presents GFDs between OPEC and all other IGOs. In other words, it presents how the other IGOs view the OPEC frontier over the period. First using the pooled results, on average, IEA and OAPEC are 151.45% ([2.51451]100) and 25.82% ([1.25821]100) better than OPEC frontier, whereas FSU on average is 20% ([10.80]100) worse than OPEC. These overall dynamics are observed across all periods under review. IEA and OAPEC have consistently been better than OPEC from the results, whiles FSU always underperform the OPEC frontier. Observing results from Table 5.12 which assesses how the other IGOs view the IEA frontier, it is readily seen from the GFDs that the IEA frontier is far better than that of all other IGOs under study. This is because, for the entire study period, all three other IGOs reported GFDs lower than 1 relative to the IEA frontier. Overall, FSU recorded the worse overall performance with respect to the IEA frontier. FSU frontier was, on average, 68.68% ([10.3132]100) worse than IEA’s frontier. This was closely followed by OPEC which had a GFD of 0.3763 signifying that OPEC frontier was on average 62.37% 109 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh ([10.3763]100) worse than IEA’s frontier. The closest group to the state of technology employed by IEA was OAPEC, which had a frontier 52.91% worse than IEA’s. Table 5.12: Global Frontier Differences against IEA Frontier YEAR OPEC IEA FSU OAPEC 2000 0.3835 1.0000 0.3152 0.5199 2001 0.3725 1.0000 0.3119 0.4988 2002 0.3712 1.0000 0.3122 0.4813 2003 0.4112 1.0000 0.3201 0.4883 2004 0.3980 1.0000 0.3119 0.4832 2005 0.3997 1.0000 0.3139 0.4774 2006 0.3936 1.0000 0.3138 0.4694 2007 0.3553 1.0000 0.2975 0.4513 2008 0.3404 1.0000 0.2968 0.4472 2009 0.3669 1.0000 0.3046 0.4488 2010 0.3648 1.0000 0.3124 0.4511 2011 0.3691 1.0000 0.3231 0.4636 2012 0.3736 1.0000 0.3289 0.4578 2013 0.3744 1.0000 0.3244 0.4605 Pooled 0.3763 1.0000 0.3132 0.4709 Table 5.13: Global Frontier Differences against FSU Frontier YEAR OPEC IEA FSU OAPEC 2000 1.2167 3.1725 1.0000 1.6494 2001 1.1940 3.2057 1.0000 1.5991 2002 1.1888 3.2029 1.0000 1.5415 2003 1.2843 3.1237 1.0000 1.5253 2004 1.2762 3.2062 1.0000 1.5493 2005 1.2734 3.1858 1.0000 1.5210 2006 1.2545 3.1872 1.0000 1.4961 2007 1.1945 3.3617 1.0000 1.5170 2008 1.1469 3.3696 1.0000 1.5069 2009 1.2046 3.2831 1.0000 1.4736 2010 1.1677 3.2007 1.0000 1.4437 2011 1.1423 3.0951 1.0000 1.4348 2012 1.1360 3.0403 1.0000 1.3918 2013 1.1541 3.0828 1.0000 1.4197 Pooled 1.2014 3.1928 1.0000 1.5035 110 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh Results from Table 5.13 show the GFDs relative to the FSU frontier. It shows how the other IGOs view the FSU frontier. From the results, it is evident that FSU frontier is the worse frontier among the groups under study. All other IGOs scored values greater than 1. IEA reported the strongest performance with an overall average of 3.1928, whereas OAPEC had an overall GFD of 1.5035. For OPEC, its score of 1.2014 on average means that OPEC’s frontier is about 20.14% better than FSU’s frontier. The final of the global frontier difference comparisons is relative to the OAPEC frontier. These scores are reported in Table 5.14. OAPEC’s frontier shows some interesting results. Whereas on average, OAPEC’s frontier seems better than the OPEC (0.7991) and FSU (0.6651) frontiers, it is not better than that of IEA (2.1236). Table 5.14: Global Frontier Differences against OAPEC Frontier YEAR OPEC IEA FSU OAPEC 2000 0.7377 1.9235 0.6063 1.0000 2001 0.7466 2.0046 0.6253 1.0000 2002 0.7712 2.0777 0.6487 1.0000 2003 0.8420 2.0478 0.6556 1.0000 2004 0.8237 2.0694 0.6454 1.0000 2005 0.8372 2.0946 0.6575 1.0000 2006 0.8385 2.1303 0.6684 1.0000 2007 0.7875 2.2160 0.6592 1.0000 2008 0.7611 2.2360 0.6636 1.0000 2009 0.8175 2.2279 0.6786 1.0000 2010 0.8088 2.2170 0.6927 1.0000 2011 0.7962 2.1572 0.6970 1.0000 2012 0.8162 2.1844 0.7185 1.0000 2013 0.8129 2.1715 0.7044 1.0000 Pooled 0.7991 2.1236 0.6651 1.0000 From all the GFDs reported in the four preceding tables, IEA’s frontier has consistently been better than that of all other IGOs. IEA’s frontier on average is 2.5145 times better than OPEC’s frontier, 3.1928 times better than FSU frontier and 2.1236 times better than OAPEC’s frontier. This seems to give credence to earlier observation that IEA is the best performing IGO in terms of oil and gas production efficiency in the international oil 111 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh industry. Best performing countries in IEA are much better than even the best performing countries in all other IGOs under study. OAPEC seems to be the next best IGO based on the GFDs. Its frontier, although 62.37% ([10.3763 ]100) worse than IEA’s frontier, is 25.82% ([1.25821]100) better than OPEC frontier and 50.35% ([1.50351]100) better than FSU frontier. OPEC then follows in terms of rankings. Its frontier is seen to be better than that of FSU whiles trailing those of IEA and OAPEC. Finally, the frontier of FSU states is seen to be the worse relative to all other IGOs in the international oil industry. The final part of this section is aimed at achieving the fifth and final objective of this study. This is to examine whether a statistically significant difference exist in the technology indices of the various IGOs. Whereas the global frontier differences will inform on the difference between specific frontiers, it does not inform on whether the differences between two frontiers are statistically significant. Therefore, three tests of differences are used in this part. In achieving objective five of this study, a pairwise comparison of the scores of these IGOs are presented based on a dataset from 2000 to 2013. Independent t-test and Mann Whitney U tests are used to measure the pairwise comparison of the means and ranks of the various IGOs. Additionally, the SZAL test which uses kernel density estimators to compare the distribution of the scores are used here. Test statistics are for each statistical technique are presented together with the p-values for each pairwise comparison. 112 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh Table 5.15: Pairwise Comparisons of Technology Indices t-test Mann Whitney SZAL FSU - IEA -45.262 (0.000)*** 105 (0.000)*** 6.11 (0.000)*** FSU - OAPEC -21.034 (0.000)*** 105 (0.000)*** 7.72 (0.000)*** FSU – OPEC -9.019 (0.000)*** 105 (0.000)*** 7.58 (0.000)*** IEA – OAPEC 34.985 (0.000)*** 105 (0.000)*** 7.10 (0.000)*** IEA – OPEC 41.924 (0.000)*** 105 (0.000)*** 6.10 (0.000)*** OAPEC - OPEC 13.755 (0.000)*** 105 (0.000)*** 7.75 (0.000)*** ***p <0.001. **p<0.01. *p<0.05 values in parenthesis ( ) are the p-values Pairwise comparison begin with the scores of FSU and IEA. Based on results in Table 5.10, IEA was seen to have the greatest TI than all other IGOs. Statistically, IEA’s higher TIs are also statistically significant based on all three statistical techniques. IEA also has significantly larger TIs than OAPEC and OPEC as all of these comparisons are statistically significant, IEA is therefore the best IGO in this industry. OAPEC is also seen to have significantly larger TIs than OPEC and FSU whiles it has a statistically significantly lower TI than IEA. OAPEC is therefore the second best IGO in this industry. This is then followed by OPEC which has statistically larger TIs than FSU but statistically lower than OAPEC and IEA. Finally, just as previously observed, FSU is seen to statistically underperform all other IGOs in industry since their TIs are seen to be significantly lower than all three other IGOs. The technological index comparison shows the magnitude of differences in the frontier in relations to the four IGOs being evaluated. IEA is seen to have higher technological indices and higher production frontier relative to the three other IGOs. The difference may be due to fact that the IEA is made up of more industrialized western countries with much higher resource in terms of human capital, technology, infrastructure and capital for investment, political and economic stability, bargaining power and collaborations with many more 113 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh intergovernmental organizations (Bamberger et al., 2004; Colgan et al., 2011; Duffield, 2012; Jollands et al., 2010). This is theoretically supported by the resource base theory (RBT), which believes that the way an organization is organized combined with it resources, can better enhance the positive relationship between resources and the performance of the organization. This is justified by the empirical works which give credence to the importance of these resource characteristics for firm performance (Crook et al., 2008; Sirmon et al., 2011). This means that the IEA is able to put their resources to a better use for high performance. With respect to game theory the IEA strategy of maintaining minimum oil and gas stocks in the face of production cuts and price hikes (Bamberger et al., 2004) as well as the strong inter and intra group collaboration is consistent with the theory. When there is high inter and intra group collaborations it results in high exchange of information within and between groups. It then leads to organizational learning, innovation and information asymmetries are addressed (Rigby et al., 2013). OAPEC’s frontier showed a better score as compared with OPEC and FSU. This is an all Arab organization and perhaps this is the reason for their good performance. The group is seen to share similar cultural and political values due to them being closely linked with each other and in the same geographical location. This is buttressed by social network theory which posits that, states are said to be socially networked when they tend to think and behave similarly because they are connected (Garton et al., 1997; Miles, 2012). OAPEC sponsored ventures also help them to keep pace with developments and succeeds in enhancing their performance in the industry (OAPEC, 2010). This is true as predicted by game theory that stronger and more strategic the group collaboration within and with other groups, the higher the levels of learning and innovation and this leads to improved performance. OAPEC’s oil reserves have been estimated at about 713 billion barrels about 43% of the proven world’s reserves in 2014 (OAPEC, 2015). The large oil and gas resource endowment may be another 114 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh factor influencing their level of performance as predicted by the RBT. The theory indicates that, there is a link between organization resources and performance. The more resource endowed an organization is, the better its performance. Overall, during the entire period of the study, OAPEC countries displayed almost similar scores indicating that the level of influence by member countries are relatively the same. This is justified by the theory of social facilitation which postulates that members of an organization are expected to exhibit similar levels of performance (Crawford, 1939; Miles, 2012). OPEC’s frontier follows OAPEC as the next best production frontier with scores better than the FSU. The composition of the members cuts across countries from Africa, South America and Asia. OPEC’s coordination between major producers and consumers and their participation in international energy forums show the extent of engagement within the group and among other groups in the international oil and gas industry (Goldthau & Witte, 2011). It stand to reason that their better performance as compared with FSU may be a result of this collaborations, solidarity and other factor favouring the group in the coalition among member countries (Mikdashi, 1974). This is supported by game theory (Von Neumann & Morgenstern, 1944), which explains that, where there is a strategic collaboration within a particular group and among other groups there is a group learning and innovation that is possible to enhance the group’s performance. Since the FSU frontier is significantly below the production frontiers of the other IGOs, the suggestion is that there is inadequate levels of coordination and collaboration among member countries and other groups. It will therefore be critical for them to come together and form a stronger IGO to create stronger and more sustainable ties among them. As suggested by social network theory. The establish ties will help improve their performance. There is probably information asymmetry among member states since the levels of cooperation among FSU states is not adequate. Hence, 115 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh their coming together will to some extent help improve their efficiencies significantly and contribute to individual country’s stronger development and growth. 5.5 Conclusions In this chapter, results of the metafrontier and global frontier difference analysis were presented. This was earlier preceded by an examination of the returns to scale properties of the international oil and gas industry. Discussions based on theory, empirical literature and practice are provided to answer the research questions of the study. The analysis compared the production and supply efficiencies of the 53 countries in the four IGOs for the period. 116 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh CHAPTER SIX SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 6.0 Introduction This is the final chapter of this study. It first summarises the research process and findings. Based on the findings, conclusions are drawn which are used to make recommendations for practice, policy and further research. 6.1 Summary of study The main aim of this study was to examine the production and supply efficiency of OPCs belonging to four IGOs in the international oil industry. Many oil and gas efficiency related studies have been conducted, but little knowledge on inter-country and group level efficiency exist. The contributions of this research is first to add to the literature in the international oil and gas industry by exploring knowledge on the performance of OPCs. In addition to this, the study does not only assesses the nexus between OPCs performance and their association with a particular IGOs but also does inter-IGO performance using two DEA estimating techniques- the Metafrontier Analysis (Battese et al., 2004) and the Global Frontier Differences (Asmild, Paradi, Reese, & Tam, 2007) approaches. The within group (intra IGO) and again between groups (inter IGO) comparison have seen little or no consideration by most authors in the oil and gas industry. The study employed the metafrontier approach which interestingly caters for the challenge of group heterogeneity, and the global frontier difference which compares the frontiers of the various groups in the international oil and gas industry for the first time. Also, the Simar-Zelenyuk adapted Li test, Simar and Wilson (2002) test of returns to scale and other innovative modelling approaches are used to ensure robust research conclusions. Output-orientation was used for all modelling processes. This model allowed management to distinguish results based on 117 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh policy and strategy and industry knowledge regarding increasing production levels from a given level of resource. Data used was source from the U.S Energy Information Association’s web site and the World Bank’s World Development Indicators database. In all 53 OPCs from the four IGOs in the international oil and gas industry for the 14-year period from 2000 to 2013 were sampled. The scope of the database comprises country level data on oil and gas reserves and production outputs. The main findings identified in the study are: i. The production technology of oil and gas producing nations that were sampled, seems to exhibit a constant return to scale rather than variable return to scale. ii. From the intra group assessment; a. Although some members of the FSU have appreciable levels of efficiency, most members of this IGO have high levels of group and meta- inefficiencies. There is high discrepancies between the group and meta- efficiencies of the FSU states. b. IEA states are low inefficiencies and similar levels of group and meta- efficiency scores. Additionally, assessment of their technology gap ratios (TGRs) show that most IEA states have high TGRs. c. The performance of members of the OAPEC bloc is seen to be moderate to high for almost all the member countries. Although some member states have quite high results, a few other states are low. This show some level of dispersion in the performance of member states. 118 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh d. OPEC member states produce the highest levels of oil outputs. This is encouraging since they also are the highest endowed IGO in terms of oil reserves. This notwithstanding they seem to have quite high meta and group inefficiency levels. However, the levels of inefficiencies for the group and meta scores are quite similar for most OPEC states. iii. For the inter group assessment: a. By comparing the averages and distributions of the groups, IEA states on average were the best performers followed by OAPEC, OPEC and FSU in that order. The average levels of meta-efficiency and technology gap ratios of IEA were seen to be significantly larger than the averages of the other IGOs b. This was also confirmed from the Global Frontier analysis since the best performing countries in the IEA are seen to significantly outperform even the best performing countries in the other three IGOs. IEA and OAPEC production frontiers were seen to be consistently better than both the OPEC and FSU frontiers for all 14 years. 6.2 Conclusions of the study The study through its findings has identified some interesting issues that need careful consideration in the performance assessment and benchmarking of oil producing countries and IGOs related to the international oil industry. First, the issue of scale of operation and its possible effects on productive capabilities of OPCs in the industry was examined using the test of returns to scale property of the 119 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh production frontier in the international oil and gas industry. Results show that size does not matter in this industry since constant returns to scale was observed for the industry for each of the years examined. This means that all oil producing countries in the international oil industry examined are operating at optimal production scales. Countries need not bother about either increasing their productive capacities or reducing it in order to improve supply efficiencies since their current production levels are of the appropriate scale. This also means that rate of change in reserve capacities (inputs) is consistent with changes in their production levels (outputs) (Asmild et al., 2013). Oil producing countries are of similar production capacities irrespective of the size of the country’s oil and gas resource endowment. This is probably because of the capital intensive nature of oil and gas exploration and production activities (Szilas, 1985). Second issue of concern pertains to the intra group performance assessments. FSU states were seen to be underperformers with only few lower inefficiencies and higher TGRs. On the other hand, IEA states were mostly seen as consistent performers since most of them had high TGRs. For OAPEC and OPEC states, their performance were mostly mixed. Whereas some member states were high performers, a few others were not that good. However, for both OPEC and OAPEC, number states who were generally high performers outweighed those who were not that good. The low performance of the FSU states could be partly as a result of the level of infrastructural investment in the region and partly due to the low level of cooperation by member states in the production efforts. It can be argued that the low level of capital investment and technology, linked with the lack of cooperation could be the cause of the disparities in the performance within the IGO. This is evident in the very high meta-inefficiencies and group inefficiencies exhibited by the countries in the IGO. The IEA’s consistent performance and a high intra-group scores mean that member countries are all performing very close to the frontier in a very similar manner. This is an indication 120 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh that countries in IEA may be producing using the best state of knowledge in the industry. There high performance may be due to intra group collaboration of members and the vibrant nature of this IGO especially in seeking international expertise to develop the IEA. OAPEC countries’ performances are moderately high, signifying that members of the IGO are not too far from the frontier in terms of the group efficiency. This is evident in the small differences between the meta-efficiencies and group efficiencies giving an indication that countries in this IGO are producing using close to the best technology in the industry to a large extent. This notwithstanding few members are a distant from the frontier and requires improvement. This could be that these states may not be following the laid down policies in the group and that group policies and guidelines may not actively drive members to the same direction. OPEC states show a lot of differences in their performance, indicating that some countries are using similar state of knowledge in the industry while others fail to take advantage of the best available state of knowledge in their production efforts. Even though member states produce the highest levels of oil outputs. Issues of internal collective action challenges and the rise of new producers can explain the differences in their performance (Goldthau & Witte, 2011). Group policies may not be as effective as it was previously with the rise of new and powerful non-member players like USA and China. Finally, for the inter-group performance assessment, whereas IEA was seen as the best performer in the industry, FSU was seen to be not as improved as all the other IGOs in the international oil industry that were assessed. OAPEC and OPEC came second and third respectively on the TGRs ranking. IEA frontier was the best performer in the study over the 14 years period from 2000 to 2013 outperforming OAPEC, OPEC and the FSU in terms of meta-efficiency and group efficiency. It is also evident in the TGR. The same situation was observed when the production frontiers of these four groups were compares. The IEA frontier was seen to be the best in the industry that sets the pace for all other groups. Second 121 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh was the OAPEC frontier. Whereas the OPEC production frontier comes closely third with that of the OAPEC frontier, both groups’ frontier are a distant away from the current state of knowledge employed by IEA members. FSU had the lowest production frontier in the international oil industry. IEA’s performance could be as a result of both the high intra- group collaboration and even higher inter-group (external) collaborations. The result is therefore high exchange of information that results in better organizational learning and innovation by members and addressed all information asymmetries and bottlenecks that may hinder the progress of the production and supply capabilities of member states. 6.3 Recommendations of the study Based on the findings and conclusions of this study some essential recommendations can be proffered on policy, practice and future research. This will assist oil producing countries, policy makers in the industry, investors, oil related IGOs in the international oil industry and academics to better appreciate the dynamics of the international oil industry. Recommendations on Policy a. Due to the fact that constant returns to scale was observed, OPCs are seen to be producing at optimal production sizes. This means that policy makers should not concentrate on developing policies that bother on capacity expansion or reduction as current levels are adequate. b. FSU states should put in more efforts to formalise their association with clearer policy guidelines that enshrine better collaboration among member states. c. IEA was seen to be the best IGO. Whiles this is good, the IGO should strive for more collaborations especially with the other IGOs in this industry. Other IGOs like 122 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh OAPEC and OPEC can use IEA as a benchmark when developing operational targets. d. Countries that are yet to join an IGO can take a close look at the activities of IEA in ensuring both internal and external collaborations. Choice of an IGO to join should be guided by the level of collaboration among member states and the technical capabilities of external collaborators. Recommendations on Practice a. Management of the production activities in these countries should ensure that current optimal levels are maintained. This is because, whereas these countries may not be facing scale inefficiencies now, it is very possible that future production capacities may result in higher costs due to large operation. b. FSU states should be more open to international collaboration instead on focusing on internal capabilities as was observed in literature. Close association with higher performing states and organizations can better streamline their activities and reduce their inefficiencies. c. Whereas OAPEC and OPEC were among the best performers, individual members experienced different levels of performance. Organizational policies and guidelines should be better institutionalised. Efforts should be directed towards ensuring that member countries adhere to these policies that work. Recommendations on Further Research a. To develop greater understanding, further research in productive efficiencies or any frontier performance criteria in the industry should adopt a constant returns to scale model especially when assessing the performance of these OPCs under consideration. 123 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh b. While Social network theory believes that common backgrounds among actors ensure close collaboration, for FSU states, this common ancestry does not seem to improve their performance. Future research should delve more into precise ties that can improve efficiencies in the international oil industry and how countries with adversarial histories can be joined towards a common productive goal. c. Further research is desirable to develop greater insight of how production quotas and other regulatory guidelines of some IGOs, such as OPEC, affects the performance of individual countries. d. OPCs were examined at the composite country level. 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Al-Rashed & León Energy efficiency Energy OPEC countries Energy OPEC (2015) coefficient (2010) 6. Al-Rubaie, Salek Efficiency of Regression 30 responses were Health OAPEC & Walker (2015) pharmaceuticals from 17 GCC international, 7 GCC, 3 non-GCC Arab, and 3 Asian 7. Andrieş and Competition and SFA 27 EU Countries Banking EU Căpraru Bank efficiency Regression (2001- 2009) (2012) 8. Arestis, Chortareas Efficiency of DEA 26 OECD Economy OECD & Desli (2006) economy Countries (1963–1992) 9. Aristovnik (2012) Educational DEA 27 EU and OECD Education EU efficiency Countries OECD (1999–2007) 10. Arnade (1994) Agricultural DEA 77 countries EU, Agriculture EU, etc. USA, Australia & Efficiency and New Zealand Productivity (1961 - 1987) 11. Asongu (2013) Financial efficiency Regression 11 AU Countries Economy AU (1981 - 2009) 155 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 12. Behname (2012) Bank efficiency DEA Regression 8 OPEC Countries Banking OPEC (1995-2009) 13. Bosseboeuf et al Energy efficiency Energy intensity 9 EU member Energy EU (1997) ratio and countries (1970 - efficiency technico- 1993) economic approach 14. Çakır, Perçin & Efficiency of the DEA 25 OECD Postal OECD Min (2015) postal services Countries (2010) Service 15. Casu & Girardone Bank efficiency SFA 5 EU Countries Banking EU (2004) (1990s) DEA Malmquist 16. Casu & Girardone Bank efficiency Panzar and EU-15 Countries Banking EU (2006) Rosse model (1997–2003) DEA 17. Casu & Molyneux Bank efficiency DEA 5 EU Countries Banking EU (1993 - 1997) (2003) Tobit Regression 18. Claeys &Vennet Bank efficiency Translog Cost 1130 banks from Banking EU (2008) Function 31 European countries (1994- 2001) 19. Dike (2013) Measuring the REED index 12 OPEC Countries Oil OPEC security of energy exports demand in (2009) OPEC economies 20. Donni & Fecher Efficiency and DEA and 15 OECD Insurance OECD (1997) productivity of the Malmquist Countries insurance industry (1983-1991) 21. Drakos (2003) Bank efficiency Regression 10 CEE and FSU Banking FSU Countries CEE (1993–1999) 22. Fare, Grosskopf, Productivity DEA 17 OECD Economy OECD Norris and Zhang Growth, Countries (1994) Malmquist Technical Progress, (1979-1988) and Efficiency Change 23. Filippini & Hunt Energy efficiency SFA 29 OECD Energy OECD Countries (2009) 156 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh (1978 - 2006) 24. Fredriksson, Energy efficiency Regression 12 OECD Energy OECD Vollebergh and Countries Dijkgraaf (2004) (1982–1996) 25. Fu et al. (2015) Economy Regression China and G20 Economy G20 member countries 26. Geller, Harrington, Energy efficiency Energy intensity 10 OECD Energy OECD Rosenfeld, Countries (1973- Tanishima, 1998) Unander (2006) 27. Goldthau & Witte Performance in Review OPEC Oil OPEC (2011) energy (1960-2009) 28. Gorton & Farm productivity DEA 6 CEE countries Agriculture CEE Davidova (2004) and efficiency SFA 29. Gupta & Efficiency of FDH 37 Countries in Education/ AU Verhoeven (1999) government Africa Union expenditure Health (1984–1995) 30. Hori (2012) Energy efficiency Energy intensity OECD and Non- Energy OECD OECD countries 31. Jollands et al Energy efficiency Review/Policy G8 (2008) Energy G8 (2010) 32. Košak, Zajc and Bank efficiency SFA 5 New EU Member Banking EU Zorić States (2009) (1996 – 2006) 33. Krishnasamy & Efficiency and Metafrontier 26 OECD Economy OECD Ahmed (2009) Productivity of Countries economy MPI (1980-2008) 34. Mamatzakis, Bank efficiency SFA 10 E U Countries Banking EU Staikouras and Koutsomanoli- ( 1998–2003) Filippaki (2008) 35. Meier et al.(2013) Fuel energy Review 6 IEA members Bioenergy IEA 157 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 36. Muldoon et al Health efficiency Regression 192 UN Health UN (2011) Countries (2001-2008) 37. Oderkirk, Ronchi Health efficiency Regression 20 OECD countries Health OECD & Klazzinga (2013) (2011-2012) 38. Oum & Yu (1994) Efficiency of DEA 19 OECD Railways OECD Railways Countries TFP (1978-89) Tobit regression 39. Ramcharran Efficiency and Oil Griffin’s Model 12 OPEC Countries Oil OPEC (2002) production intensity ratios (1973-1997) responses to price and changes 40. Reiche (2010) Energy efficiency Review/Policy 6 GCC countries Energy OAPEC GCC 41. Retzlaff-Roberts, Technical efficiency DEA 29 OECD Health OECD Chang & Rubin in health care Countries (1998) (2003) 42. Sari & Soytas Efficiency Auto Regressive 5 OPEC Countries Economy OPEC (2009) Distributed Lag (1971–2002.) (ARDL) Approach, 43. Selowsky & Policy Performance Regression 25 CEE & FSU Economy CEE Martin (1990-1995) FSU (1997) 44. Shahabinejad, Productivity SFA 44 Asian Countries Economy ASEAN Mehrjerdi & (2000-2010) Yaghoubi (2013) 45. Sharma & Thomas R&D efficiency DEA 22 UN member R&D UN Countries (2004) (2008) 46. Staníčková & Efficiency DEA 27 EU Countries Economy EU Skokan (2012) (2000 -2010) 47. Taylor (2010) Energy efficiency Review 16 IEA countries Energy IEA 48. Vlontzos et al Agricultural energy DEA 25 EU Countries Agriculture EU (2014). (2001–2008) and environmental efficiency IEA – OAPEC – FSU EU AU ASEAN UN GCC CEE 158 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh APPENDIX B CHRONOLOGICAL TAXONOMY OF EFFICIENCY STUDIES IN OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY NO. AUTHOR (YEAR) ISSUES METHOD INPUTS OUTPUTS SAMPLE/STUDY Product SECTOR RESEARCH PERIOD 1. A l-Obaidan and Scully Ownership and SFA • Total assets • Total revenue 44 oil companies Oil and Upstream (1991) efficiency (1979-1983) Gas • Barrels of crude oil produced + barrels of crude oil refined 2. A l-Obaidan and Scully Backward Vertical Aigner-Chu • Total assets • Total revenue 55 oil companies Oil and Upstream (1993) Integration deterministic frontier (1979-1982) Gas 3. T hompson DEA/ AR and DEA • Total Cost • Additions to 14 integrated oil Oil and Upstream Dharmapala, Profitability reserves companies in US Gas Rothenberg and Thrall • Proved (combined) (1980-1987) (1994) reserves (combined) • Sales of production from reserves 4. A l-Obaidan and Scully, Multinationality SFA • Total assets • Total revenue 44 oil companies Oil and Upstream (1995) (1976-1982) Gas . Barrels crude oil produced + barrels crude oil refined 5. P rice and Weyman- Privatization DEA • Number of • Domestic gas 12 distribution Gas Downstream Jones (1996) SFA employees sales regions in UK • Length of gas • Industrial gas (1977-78 to 1990- Mains sales 91) Transmission • Commercial gas sales 159 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh and distribution • Number of system Customers • Gas using appliances sold 6. L ee, Park and Kim. International Edgeworth Index • Capital • Gas deliveries 28 natural gas Gas Downstream (1996) Comparison • Labour transportation •Administration utilities in 8 countries (1987- 1995) 7. T hompson, Conceptual Paper DEA • Total • Oil Production• 30 oil companies Oil and Upstream Dharmapala, Diaz, production costs Gas Production (1983-1985) Gas Gonzalez-Lima and • Total proven Thrall(1996) reserves of crude • Total exploratory and development wells drilled • Total proven reserves of natural gas 8. T hompson, Application od DEA • Expenditure in • Crude oil 14 integrated oil Oil and Upstream Dharmapala, DEA AR and CR exploration discovered companies in US Gas Rothenberg and Thrall • Crude oil proved reserves (1980-1991) (1996) reserves • Natural gas • Natural gas discovered reserves proved reserves 9. K im, Lee, Park and International Multilateral Tornqvist • Labour • Total volume of 28 Natural Gas Gas Downstream Kim, (1999) Comparison, Managerial Index • Capital gas supplied transmission and Determinants of System Analysis (Assets) distribution Productivity Non-parametric • Administration • Revenue from companies Efficiency Analysis gas operating 8 transportation countries (1987- 1995) 10. H awdon (2003) Regulation DEA • Employment • Gas Country-level Gas Downstream • Length of Consumption Dataof 33 160 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh Bootstrapping pipelines • Number of countries Customers (1998, 1999) Gas Industry 11. I smail, Tai, Kong, Environmental DEA • Assets • Revenue 17 Oil Companies Oil and Upstream Law, Shirazi and Efficiency • Employee (2008) Gas Karim (2003) Numbers 12. K ashani (2005) Regulation DEA •Construction • Oil Production 66 oil and gas fields, Oil and Upstream SFA Regression Cost • • Gas Production 67 oil fields. United Gas Variable Cost Kingdom. (1974- • Water depth 1991) • Revenue depth • Number of partners 13. K ashani (2005) State Intervention DEA • Construction • Oil Production 37 Gas Fields in Oil and Upstream SFA Cost • • Gas Production Norway. (1972- Gas Regression Variable Cost• 2000) Water depth • Revenue depth • Number of partners 14. M anagi, Opaluch, Jin Technology Regression • Drilling • Quantity of oil 370 Drilling wells in Oil and Upstream and Grigalunas, (2005) Change distance per and gas reserves gulf of Mexico-US Gas exploratory well discovered in (1947-1998) • Drilling barrels of oil distance per equivalent development well • Total number of exploratory and development wells • Price of oil & gas • Water depth 161 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 15. M anagi, Opaluch, Jin Technology SFA • Oil reserves• • Porosity 370 Drilling wells in Oil and Upstream and Grigalunas (2006) Change Water depth gulf of Mexico-US Gas • 5 yrs. ex drill (1947-1998) mills ratio • Gas reserves 16. B arros and Assaf Bootstrapping DEA •Operational • Gross production 9 Angolan oil Oil Upstream (2009) Bootstrapping cost Blocks Bootstrapped • Investment (2002-2007) truncated regression Premium • Taxes 17. B arros and Managi Growth DEA •Operational • Gross 9 Angolan oil blocks Oil Upstream (2009) Accounting vs cost production (2002-2007) Productivity • Investment Method premium• Taxes 18. W olf (2009) Ownership and Regression • Oil and gas • Annual oil and 87 oil firms Oil and Upstream efficiency reserves gas production ( 1 9 87-2006) Gas • OPEC • Revenues membership • Net income (Binary) • Total assets • State ownership Percentage • Ratio of oil and gas reserves • Number of employees 19. E ller, Hartley and Ownership DEA • Oil reserves • Revenues 78 oil firms (2006) Oil and Upstream Medlock (2011). SFA • Number of Gas employees• Natural gas reserves 20. F rancisco ,de Almeida Environmental DEA • Amount of • Processed oil 10 Brazilian Oil and Downstream and de Silva (2012) Efficiency water consumed • Effluents Refineries Gas • Percentage of (Undesirable) (2004) Idleness 162 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh • Age of Refinery (Uncontrollable) 21. S ueyoshi and Goto Conceptual Paper: DEA • Amount of Oil • Oil Production 19 oil firms. (2005- Oil and Upstream (2012) Environmental Reserves • Gas Production• 2009) Gas Efficiency and • Amount of Gas CO2 emission Ownership Reserves (Undesirable) • Total operating cost • Number of employees 22. S ueyoshi and Goto Conceptual Paper: DEA • Amount of Oil • Oil Production• 19 oil firms. (2005- Oil and Upstream (2012) Environmental Reserves Gas Production 2009) Gas Efficiency and • Amount of Gas • CO2 emission Ownership Reserves (Undesirable) • Total operating cost • Number of employees 23. B arros and Antunes Productivity Luenberger •Operational • Production of 9 Angolan oil Oil Upstream (2014) Change. Malmquist Productivity Indicator cost oil Blocks vs Luenberger • Taxes • Investment (2002-2008) premium 24. I ke and Lee, H. (2014) Ownership DEA • Oil reserves • Oil production 38 oil companies Oil and Upstream Slack Based • Gas reserves • Gas Production (2003-2010) Gas MPI • Number of Regression employees 163 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh APPENDIX C DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS BY TIME ANOVA N Mean Std. Deviation Minimum Maximum F Sig. Oil Reserves 2000 52 27.55 58.04 0.01 263.50 0.216 0.998 2001 52 27.91 57.71 0.01 261.70 2002 52 28.05 57.70 0.01 261.75 2003 52 31.91 61.29 0.01 261.80 2004 52 33.11 62.32 0.01 261.90 2005 52 33.44 62.44 0.01 261.90 2006 52 33.88 63.51 0.01 266.81 2007 51 34.85 63.26 0.01 262.30 2008 51 35.29 64.16 0.01 266.75 2009 52 34.91 63.82 0.01 266.71 2010 52 35.26 62.99 0.01 262.40 2011 52 37.53 67.02 0.01 262.60 2012 49 39.56 71.33 0.01 267.02 2013 52 41.33 74.70 0.01 297.57 Total 723 33.87 63.28 0.01 297.57 Gas 2000 52 106.04 260.35 0.04 1700.00 0.137 1.000 Reserves 2001 52 110.27 263.90 0.02 1700.00 2002 52 115.42 267.30 0.02 1680.00 2003 52 116.63 267.06 0.02 1680.00 2004 52 135.44 305.83 0.04 1680.00 2005 52 135.01 306.20 0.04 1680.00 2006 52 136.56 308.04 0.04 1680.00 2007 51 140.24 310.52 0.04 1680.00 2008 51 140.68 308.99 0.07 1680.00 2009 52 138.72 307.69 0.07 1680.00 2010 52 145.75 311.72 0.04 1680.00 2011 52 147.21 311.89 0.04 1680.00 2012 49 155.20 328.04 0.04 1680.00 2013 52 149.12 321.10 0.04 1688.00 Total 723 133.63 296.81 0.02 1700.00 Labour 2000 52 14236015.56 24214013.86 303604.00 147134193.00 0.070 1.000 Force 2001 52 14369218.42 24276345.89 319802.00 148216979.00 2002 52 14555641.44 24403122.85 335376.00 149007489.00 2003 52 14757966.10 24552424.66 355406.00 149705300.00 2004 52 14968418.56 24714179.17 382853.00 150729170.00 2005 52 15214033.67 24985272.40 424303.00 152676462.00 2006 52 15417363.88 25232314.85 477508.00 154694540.00 2007 51 15813970.04 25671774.47 540749.00 155976570.00 2008 51 16029800.27 25890710.46 605930.00 157724796.00 2009 52 16021090.44 25686856.43 664212.00 157889958.00 2010 52 16182553.33 25653982.28 707016.00 157464257.00 2011 52 16351310.33 25683846.47 731901.00 157635584.00 2012 49 17361678.67 26375113.98 741723.00 158786582.00 2013 52 16706223.83 25903640.65 738890.00 159144632.00 Total 723 15561972.32 25022196.20 303604.00 159144632.00 164 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh Oil 2000 52 1463.53 2376.25 0.39 9475.75 0.120 1.000 Production 2001 52 1450.19 2344.96 0.33 9156.64 2002 52 1420.02 2308.82 0.31 8998.43 2003 52 1488.37 2512.56 0.35 10076.81 2004 52 1596.69 2658.80 0.25 10796.24 2005 52 1646.90 2751.14 0.28 11496.31 2006 52 1646.07 2705.06 0.30 11098.44 2007 51 1669.42 2695.40 0.28 10748.62 2008 51 1721.25 2793.66 0.24 11428.60 2009 52 1655.06 2656.51 0.22 10314.71 2010 52 1703.70 2779.79 0.22 10908.35 2011 52 1714.87 2907.60 0.22 11469.90 2012 49 1846.31 3101.30 0.22 11840.68 2013 52 1792.97 3095.59 0.21 12342.77 Total 723 1628.59 2679.15 0.21 12342.77 Gas 2000 52 1945.14 4385.98 0.46 24174.00 0.155 1.000 Production 2001 52 1975.79 4411.85 0.57 24501.00 2002 52 2001.99 4416.89 0.35 23941.00 2003 52 2053.45 4509.73 0.71 24119.00 2004 52 2137.78 4572.80 0.71 23970.00 2005 52 2216.74 4562.44 0.53 23457.00 2006 52 2272.76 4631.64 0.35 23535.00 2007 51 2403.20 4771.08 0.35 24664.00 2008 51 2485.87 4867.01 0.35 25636.00 2009 52 2380.94 4713.91 0.35 26057.00 2010 52 2519.17 4988.60 0.25 26836.00 2011 52 2599.57 5276.69 0.21 28479.00 2012 49 2734.64 5412.11 0.00 29542.00 2013 52 2629.20 5359.24 0.00 30005.00 Total 723 2309.03 4749.99 0.00 30005.00 165 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh APPENDIX D SUMMARY OF TUKEY HSD RESULTS Summary of Tukey HSD Results for FSU Country N Subset for alpha = 0.05 1 2 3 4 5 6 Meta Efficiency Scores Turkmenistan 14 1.336127 Belarus 14 2.008064 Uzbekistan 14 2.718953 Russia 14 2.900439 Azerbaijan 14 3.842545 Kazakhstan 14 4.585289 Ukraine 14 5.001232 Kyrgyzstan 14 26.211315 Georgia 14 26.412623 Tajikistan 14 73.502855 Group Efficiency Scores Belarus 14 1.124731 Uzbekistan 14 1.142826 Turkmenistan 14 1.226900 Kazakhstan 14 1.305782 Russia 14 1.326069 Azerbaijan 14 1.569428 Ukraine 14 1.645614 Georgia 14 7.668168 Kyrgyzstan 14 9.191870 9.191870 Tajikistan 14 10.217240 Technological Gap Ratios Tajikistan 14 .142701 Georgia 14 .291215 Kazakhstan 14 .310537 Ukraine 14 .328497 Kyrgyzstan 14 .354955 .354955 Uzbekistan 14 .425406 .425406 Russia 14 .456646 Azerbaijan 14 .485949 .485949 Belarus 14 .562084 Turkmenistan 14 .926923 166 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh Summary of Tukey HSD Results for IEA States Country N Subset for alpha = 0.05 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Meta Efficiency Scores Norway 14 1.26 France 14 1.29 1.29 Netherlands 14 1.32 1.32 Denmark 14 1.33 1.33 Japan 14 1.39 1.39 1.39 US 14 1.47 1.47 1.47 Canada 14 1.47 1.47 1.47 UK 14 1.48 1.48 1.48 NZ 14 1.82 1.82 1.82 1.82 Greece 14 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90 Hungary 14 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 Czech Republic 14 2.07 2.07 2.07 Austria 14 2.38 2.38 2.38 Slovakia 14 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46 Spain 14 2.48 2.48 2.48 2.48 Turkey 14 2.62 2.62 2.62 Australia 14 2.63 2.63 2.63 Germany 14 3.01 3.01 Italy 14 3.07 Group Efficiency Scores UK 14 1.15 Netherlands 14 1.16 Canada 14 1.16 Norway 14 1.16 France 14 1.17 Denmark 14 1.19 1.19 Japan 14 1.28 1.28 1.28 US 14 1.30 1.30 1.30 NZ 14 1.33 1.33 1.33 Spain 14 1.39 1.39 1.39 1.39 Turkey 14 1.54 1.54 1.54 1.54 Greece 14 1.77 1.77 1.77 1.77 Hungary 14 1.79 1.79 1.79 1.79 Czech Republic 14 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 Austria 14 2.26 2.26 2.26 2.26 Slovakia 14 2.38 2.38 2.38 Germany 14 2.40 2.40 Australia 14 2.47 2.47 Italy 14 2.77 Poland 14 3.59 Technological Gap Ratios Spain 14 0.58 Turkey 14 0.59 NZ 14 0.76 167 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh UK 14 0.78 Canada 14 0.80 0.80 Germany 14 0.80 0.80 0.80 US 14 0.88 0.88 0.88 Netherlands 14 0.88 0.88 France 14 0.90 0.90 Poland 14 0.90 0.90 Italy 14 0.91 0.91 Denmark 14 0.91 0.91 Hungary 14 0.92 0.92 Japan 14 0.92 0.92 Norway 14 0.93 0.93 Greece 14 0.93 0.93 Australia 14 0.95 0.95 Austria 14 0.95 0.95 Czech Republic 14 0.95 0.95 Slovakia 14 0.97 Summary of Tukey HSD Results for OAPEC Country N Subset for alpha = 0.05 1 2 3 4 5 6 Meta Efficiency Scores Kuwait 14 1.200795 Qatar 14 1.281469 Bahrain 14 1.308595 Saudi Arabia 14 1.419018 1.419018 Algeria 14 2.497571 2.497571 2.497571 Tunisia 13 2.689048 2.689048 Libya 13 2.708792 2.708792 Syria 14 3.020070 3.020070 Egypt 14 3.624552 3.624552 Iraq 14 4.319599 Group Efficiency Scores Saudi Arabia 14 1.095871 Kuwait 14 1.132239 Bahrain 14 1.142174 Algeria 14 1.163587 Qatar 14 1.172159 Tunisia 13 1.250483 Libya 13 1.441912 1.441912 Syria 14 1.616586 1.616586 Egypt 14 1.929254 1.929254 Iraq 14 2.468775 Technological Gap Ratios Tunisia 13 .464449 Algeria 14 .466356 Egypt 14 .526895 168 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh Libya 13 .527096 Syria 14 .567047 .567047 Iraq 14 .572819 Saudi Arabia 14 .777449 Bahrain 14 .873982 Qatar 14 .916989 Kuwait 14 .944147 Summary of Tukey HSD Results for OPEC Country N Subset for alpha = 0.05 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Meta Efficiency Scores Kuwait 14 1.2008 Qatar 14 1.2815 1.2815 Saudi Arabia 14 1.4190 1.4190 Ecuador 12 1.4951 1.4951 Angola 14 1.5313 1.5313 1.5313 UAE 14 2.2333 2.2333 2.2333 Algeria 14 2.4976 2.4976 Libya 13 2.7088 Iraq 14 4.3196 Venezuela 14 5.4929 Nigeria 14 5.6513 Iran 14 8.4099 Group Efficiency Scores Algeria 14 1.0824 Saudi Arabia 14 1.0943 Kuwait 14 1.1304 Qatar 14 1.1929 Angola 14 1.1953 UAE 14 1.2031 Ecuador 12 1.2042 Libya 13 1.3733 Venezuela 14 2.0420 Iran 14 2.5250 Iraq 14 2.7189 Nigeria 14 3.3197 Technological Gap Ratios Iran 14 0.3043 Venezuela 14 0.3740 Algeria 14 0.4351 Libya 13 0.5189 UAE 14 0.5835 0.5835 Nigeria 14 0.5895 Iraq 14 0.6331 Saudi Arabia 14 0.7762 Angola 14 0.7811 169 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh Ecuador 12 0.8092 Qatar 14 0.9292 Kuwait 14 0.9427 170 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh APPENDIX E QUARTILE ANALYSIS OF METAFRONTIER SCORES Meta Group Country IGO Efficiencies Efficiencies TGR Rank Quartile Slovakia IEA 2.2430 2.1672 0.9662 1 1st Czech Republic IEA 1.8292 1.9230 0.9512 2 1st Austria IEA 2.3571 2.2408 0.9506 3 1st Australia IEA 2.5025 2.3667 0.9457 4 1st Kuwait OAPEC 1.1972 1.1299 0.9438 5 1st Kuwait OPEC 1.1972 1.1282 0.9424 6 1st Greece IEA 1.8586 1.7283 0.9299 7 1st Qatar OPEC 1.2729 1.1826 0.9290 8 1st Norway IEA 1.2524 1.1629 0.9285 9 1st Turkmenistan FSU 1.3249 1.2247 0.9244 10 1st Japan IEA 1.3818 1.2702 0.9192 11 1st Qatar OAPEC 1.2729 1.1669 0.9167 12 1st Hungary IEA 1.8614 1.7059 0.9165 13 1st Italy IEA 3.0119 2.7236 0.9043 14 2nd France IEA 1.2901 1.1651 0.9031 15 2nd Denmark IEA 1.3178 1.1886 0.9020 16 2nd Poland IEA 3.9728 3.5796 0.9010 17 2nd Netherlands IEA 1.3123 1.1573 0.8819 18 2nd US IEA 1.4600 1.2827 0.8786 19 2nd Bahrain OAPEC 1.3046 1.1399 0.8738 20 2nd Ecuador OPEC 1.4769 1.1941 0.8085 21 2nd Germany IEA 2.9925 2.3907 0.7989 22 2nd Canada IEA 1.4636 1.1617 0.7938 23 2nd Angola OPEC 1.5269 1.1925 0.7810 24 2nd Saudi Arabia OAPEC 1.4135 1.0949 0.7746 25 2nd Saudi Arabia OPEC 1.4135 1.0934 0.7735 26 2nd UK IEA 1.4797 1.1413 0.7713 27 3rd NZ IEA 1.7235 1.2943 0.7510 28 3rd Iraq OPEC 4.2290 2.6755 0.6326 29 3rd Nigeria OPEC 5.5772 3.2812 0.5883 30 3rd Turkey IEA 2.5924 1.5230 0.5875 31 3rd Iraq OAPEC 4.2290 2.4220 0.5727 32 3rd Spain IEA 2.4080 1.3765 0.5716 33 3rd UAE OPEC 2.1083 1.1957 0.5671 34 3rd Syria OAPEC 2.5099 1.4184 0.5651 35 3rd Belarus FSU 2.0023 1.1233 0.5610 36 3rd Libya OAPEC 2.4402 1.2840 0.5262 37 3rd Egypt OAPEC 3.5822 1.8823 0.5255 38 3rd Libya OPEC 2.4402 1.2646 0.5182 39 3rd Algeria OAPEC 2.4920 1.1606 0.4657 40 4th Tunisia OAPEC 2.6699 1.2394 0.4642 41 4th 171 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh Russia FSU 2.8920 1.3199 0.4564 42 4th Azerbaijan FSU 3.2583 1.4763 0.4531 43 4th Algeria OPEC 2.4920 1.0820 0.4342 44 4th Uzbekistan FSU 2.7007 1.1421 0.4229 45 4th Venezuela OPEC 5.4166 2.0236 0.3736 46 4th Kyrgyzstan FSU 24.6788 8.7513 0.3546 47 4th Ukraine FSU 4.9945 1.6374 0.3278 48 4th Iran OPEC 8.3536 2.5220 0.3019 49 4th Kazakhstan FSU 4.3545 1.3011 0.2988 50 4th Georgia FSU 24.7591 7.2097 0.2912 51 4th Tajikistan FSU 68.0373 9.6844 0.1423 52 4th 172