GeoJournal
DOI 10.1007/s10708-017-9771-1
Climate variability/change and attitude to adaptation
technologies: a pilot study among selected rural farmers’
communities in Nigeria
Ayansina Ayanlade . Maren Radeny . Akintomiwa Isaac Akin-Onigbinde
 The Author(s) 2017. This article is an open access publication
Abstract Understanding climate variability and preference among the farmers. The major driver that
change is essential for designing adaptation policies and determines farmers’ preference for climate change
strategies to deal with the impacts of climate change on adaptation techniques is their incomes and experiences.
the agricultural sector. This Paper aims at assessing
climate variability/change, the perception of rural farm- Keywords Changing climate  Local farmers 
ers on climate change and preferred adaptation strate- Adaptation strategies  Southwestern Nigeria
gies among the farmers in some selected farming
communities in Nigeria. The study thus used both
meteorology data and social survey, to examine vari- Introduction
ability/change in climate and factors determining the
adaptation techniques adopts by rural farmers. The Rural farmers’ understanding of climate variability/
results show a relatively uniform temperatures and some change is crucial for designing adaptation policies and
seasonal variations in recent years (diurnal range of strategies to deal with threats and risks of climate
temperature is about 10 C) but the rainfall shows much change in the agricultural sector. Such understanding
more seasonal variations. The rainfall has relatively is fundamental in Africa, since climate is the primary
undeviating trend from 1981 to 1996 but the trend determinant of agricultural effectiveness, and changes
appears to beupwards from the year 1997 to 2010.About in climate have pronounced impacts, not only on the
72.8% participants responded in the affirmative that agricultural sector but also on other sectors. Studies
climate is changing but there appears to be a significant have shown that climate change and extreme climatic
relationship between the length of farming experiences events pose great threats to agricultural production,
and farmers’ perceptions of climate change adaptation food security, community health, natural resources,
techniques. Water-related (about 53%) and nutrient biodiversity, and water availability (IPCC 2013;
related (about 52%) technologies appear to have a high Costello et al. 2009; Dube et al. 2016). Similarly,
projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on
 Climate Change (IPCC 2013) have indicated similarlyA. Ayanlade (&) A. I. Akin-Onigbinde
Department of Geography, Obafemi Awolowo University, that the impacts of climate change would be greater on
Ile-Ife, Nigeria socioeconomic development and agriculture which
e-mail: aayanlade@oauife.edu.ng plays much more prominent roles in food production
in Africa. The projected changes in climate are likely
A. Ayanlade  M. Radeny
CGIAR Research Programme on Climate Change, to affect crop cultivation and yield in most part of
Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), ILRI, Kenya Africa. Based on ealier studies and IPCC reports, it is
123
GeoJournal
clear that the reality of climate change and the ways in emergency measures for adaptation in their National
which it affects agriculture cannot be ignored (Adams Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs), which
et al. 1998; Christensen et al. 2007; Fernandez et al. focus on agriculture, food security, and water
2007; Torquebiau et al. 2016). Other studies have resources management. Many of the measures have
shown that Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to be more not yet been fully implemented; leaving many farmers
vulnerable to climate change than other part of the without a sound understanding of the challenges
world, not only because the economy depends on rain- facing agricultural production, from climate change.
fed agriculture, but also the difficult challenges of These reveal that African countries are likely to be
poverty, high proportion of malnourished populations, more severely affected because of their lack of
low infrastructural and technological development adaptive capacity to climate change or variability
(Niang et al. 2008; Ericksen et al. 2011; Nelson et al. (Kandji et al. 2006; Mertz et al. 2009). Notwithstand-
2014; Bradshaw et al. 2004). For example, a study by ing, what is obvious from literature is that farmers’
Ericksen et al. (2011) described African region as understanding and adaptation to climate change is
climate change ‘‘hotspots’’ due to the projected impact imperative to ensure food security and to protect the
of climate change, as coping capacity is restricted by livelihoods of the poor. Therefore, the study aims at
poverty in this part of the world. Extreme climate investigating variation and change in climate, the
events such as drought, flooding, and extreme tem- perception, knowledge level, attitudes, and under-
peratures may to occur in future, with increasing standing of farmers regarding climate change in some
frequency and intensity which some African countries farming communities in the Southwestern Nigeria.
might not be able to cope. The study is based on the hypothesis that adaptation as
On the other hand, agriculture has a fundamental a response to climate change is facilitated by the
role in African economy, as the main source of income perceptions, level farming experience and income of
for most rural communities in the region and as the farmers. An understanding of the current level of
main source of foreign revenue for the majority of knowledge, attitudes, and perceptions of farmers serve
African countries. Scientists have been greatly con- as an indicator of how well informed they are about
cerned, about the potential impacts of climate change climate change and how well-positioned they are to
on the agricultural sector in this part of the world. adopt climate change adaptation methods.
Consequently, several attempts have been made to
study the impacts, adaptation strategies and how to Conceptual framework to understand climate
mitigate of climate change in relation to agricultural change impacts and adaptation
sectors in both global and local scales. This is because
the relationship between climate and agriculture is a Many conceptual theories have been developed to
complex one, with several feedback loops and causal understand climate change impacts and adaptation
relationships. For instance, a study by Bradshaw et al. methods. The majority of earlier studies gave typical
(2004) examined the adoption of crop diversification disagreement about the appropriate concept for cli-
in Canadian prairie agriculture for the period between mate change impacts, risk, vulnerability, adaption and
1994 and 2002, weighing its strengths and limitations mitigation (Morton 2007; Owusu et al. 2015; Jethi
for risk management. The results of the study showed et al. 2016). Previous conceptual frameworks on
that individual farmers have undergone specialization climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaption
in their cropping patterns since 1994. The study were based on a variety of characterizations and
established that farmers were somehow coping with assumptions. Foremost of these are biogeophysical
climatic risks and the trend is unlikely to change in the and social dynamics. Biogeophysical dynamics is
immediate future, regardless of expected climate based on the definition of impacts, vulnerability and
change and known risk-reducing benefits of crop adaption of biological, geochemical, and physical
diversification. In Nigeria, like many other Africa environmental systems, while social dynamics is
countries, long-term adaptive measures have been based on the social, economic and political systems.
identified in the national communications to the Social dynamics involves the debate on climate
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation in
Change. Some of these countries have identified relations to changes in technological and innovation
123
GeoJournal
development, population structures, financial institu-
tions and political body.
Frameworks developed my Morton (2007) and
Owusu et al. (2015) were adopted in this study.
Conceptual framework by Morton (2007) was modi-
fied by Owusu et al. (2015) and the framework
explained climatic and non-climatic stress resulting
from climate change, with its impacts on smallholder
farmers. Part of climatic stresses identified in this
framework includes droughts while non-climatic
stress included those from market failures and preva-
lence of diseases affecting the farmers. This frame-
work further distinguished institutional constraints
from non-climatic stresses, though the effects of the
three distinguished stresses on smallholder farmers’
vulnerability depend on their sensitivity and resilience
capacities. This assumption is established on commu-
nity-based adaptation framework. The concept of Fig. 1 Study area showing selected sites in local government
community-based adaptation is founded on the pre- areas in Osun state
mise that climate change adaptation methods/pro-
cesses should be guided and based on the in the region of the country is relatively uniform with
communities’ needs, expertise, priorities, and adapta- mean monthly minimum temperature ranges from 20
tion capacities (Jethi et al. 2016; Kirkby et al. 2015). to 22 C (Ojo 1977; Ileoje 2001; Odekunle 2006). The
The conceptual framework for the present study is, geomorphological nature of the area is underlain by
therefore, based on the hypothesis that climate change metamorphic rocks with an undulating terrain. This
impacts assessment and adaptation strategies should region is characterized by two soil types, with deep
be focused on the communities capabilities. What is clay soils on the upper slopes and sandy soils on the
obvious from literature is that farmers’ adaptation lower parts. In general, the soils in this part of Nigeria
methods depend on social and economic status of the are categorized as tropical red soils associated with
individual farmers and communities orientations. This basement complex. A study by Adejuwon and
study is based, therefore, on the hypothesis that Ekanade (1988) has earlier reported that the most
climate change adaptation should be oriented to significant category of soils in these communities is
increase communities’ welfares and capabilities to the Itagunmodi series, which is well known for its
cope with climate change. prominence in cocoa cultivation. Soils belonging to
this series are the best cocoa soil in southwestern
Nigeria. The region is within rainforest zone, thus, the
Study area and methods majority of people in this region engage in farming.
The rainforest is a source of valuable timber and much
Study area of the zones that constituted the forest have been
cleared to cultivate perennial and annual food crops.
The study area is located in Osun state of Nigeria. A Larger percentage of the population in the South-
Seven farming communities were used in the study. western region of Nigeria lives in rural areas and
Akinlalu, Faforijin, Edunabon, Erefe, Gbongan, Moro engaged in agricultural activities for their livelihood,
and Odemuyiwa (Fig. 1), situated in different Local thus forms agrarian societies. The area can be divided
Government Authority. The region is within rainforest into two sub-ecological zones: The dense rainforest of
ecological zone of Nigeria with bimodal rainfall the wetter southeast and the northern part with dry
patterns of approximately 1300 mm rainfall during forest; containing a greater portion of deciduous trees
the peak periods of the rainy season. The temperature (Adejuwon and Ekanade 1988).
123
GeoJournal
Methods for certain adaptation measures to bolster their crop
yield.
The study used both quantitative and qualitative There were challenges encountered during ques-
datasets. Quantitative data derived from climatic tionnaires administration. One of these challenges was
records and questionnaires survey, while the qualita- the fact that a vast majority of the farmers were
tive dataset was derived from interviews. Daily, inexpert in climate science and this caused a commu-
monthly and annual rainfall and temperature (mini- nication gap between the interviewers and the respon-
mum and maximum) data used in this study were dents. Hence, the questionnaire had to be translated
obtained from the archive of the Nigerian Meteoro- into the local language and key terms were explained
logical Agency (NMA), Lagos. The temporal resolu- to them in detail. The first step taken was to write the
tion is from 1961 to 2013 for Oshogbo, a closest survey in a way that is readable to the respondents.
meteorological station to all the study sites. Averages This then facilitated an easier questionnaire adminis-
of the monthly and total annual rainfall and temper- tration exercise. Besides, some of the respondents
ature were calculated for the study area to show the were not eager to speak at length, demanding for
rainfall variability and minimum/maximum tempera- money, without this, they show no interest and see the
ture. In this study, C2 paleoclimatology software was exercise as ‘‘wasting time talking’’. The interview
used to analysis the climate data. Weighted averaging, questions were the subset of the questions asked in the
partial least squares and maximum likelihood regres- questionnaire. A number of farmers were also
sion and calibration (ML) were calculated. A multi- restrained from speaking plainly about the perceived
proxy stratigraphic diagram was employed, which rainfall. Some made statements such as ‘‘only God
allow us to plot variations in climatic data recorded at knows what time is best for the onset of rainfall’’ and
different years intervals. To achieve the objectives ‘‘only God dictates time for rain’’. Some refused to
outlined in this study, social field survey was con- state in explicit, what they perceived as irregularities
ducted using a structured questionnaire. Despite intent in onset and duration of the dry and rainy seasons. The
to make generalizations about awareness and percep- data gathered from the interview were transcribed for
tion of farmers regarding climate change in the entire easy analysis and interpretation while quantitative
Southwestern region of Nigeria, it is neither expedient data was analyzed using statistical techniques avail-
nor realistic to interview all the farmers in this region. able in SPSS. Detailed descriptive statistics was
Consequently, farmers interviewed were selected at employed to explore data and describe the nature of
random within the study sites. In each community, the data sets while correlation analysis was carried out
some farmsteads were selected for the survey and data to assess the relationship between the length of
was obtained through questionnaires and one-on-one farming experiences, incomes and the climate change
interview of farmers, conducted in the year 2012, 2013 perceptions. Pearson’s product-moment correlation
and 2014. A team of research assistants was hired to values (R2) were used to assess these relationships.
administer the questionnaires, due to the spread of the The farmers’ preference for selected adaptation
communities. Care was taken to interview individuals technologies and willingness-to-pay component was
who had been farmers for periods longer than 10 years assessed, using the preference technique method
as they were in a better position to identify and (Merino-Castello 2003; Taneja et al. 2014). The stated
appreciate long-term trends and changes in weather preference technique, according to Taneja et al.
patterns in their locations. Those that participated in (2014), involves the use of a rating and scoring system
questionnaires survey were not interviewed in order to (Table 1) where a score of 0 translates to no prefer-
avoid data redundancy. The information collected ence, 1 means low preference, 2 means medium and 3
from the farmers includes the demographics charac- means high preference. The adaptation technologies
teristics of farmers, the crops they cultivate, and their selected by rural farmer in this study include (1) water-
perceived changes in climate, climate change impacts related technologies such as rainwater management,
they have experienced over time. Their perceptions irrigation, (2) nutrient related technologies such as
regarding variations in climate were assessed, adap- manure, leaf colour charts, fertilizers (3) weather-
tation strategies they have employed to mitigate the related technologies such as crop insurance and
effects of climate change, and their willingness to pay weather advisories and (4) plant engineering
123
GeoJournal
Table 1 Evaluation of farmers’ preferences by scoring climatic uniqueness of the study area is obvious. The
method. Adapted from Taneja et al. (2014) study sites ae located in tropical humid climate. The
Rating scale Level of preference Ranking scale (%) region experiences two seasons: the rainy season
(April–October) and the dry season (November–
0 Zero 0–25 March). The climate of the study area is influenced
1 Low 25–50 by the movement of three main wind currents: the
2 Medium 50–75 Tropical Maritime (mT) air mass, the Tropical Con-
3 High 75–100 tinental (cT) air mass, and the Equatorial Easterlies
(Ojo 1977; McGregor and Nieuwolt 1998). The two
air masses usually meet alongside a slanting surface
technologies such as tolerant and drought resistant called the inter-tropical discontinuity (ITD). McGre-
varieties. The farmers were presented with different gor and Nieuwolt (1998) had already noted that
scenarios and asked to rate these scenarios individu- temperatures are not a critical factor in tropical
ally (Table 1). The ranking was performed in order to agriculture and that the choice of suitable crops is
give an idea of the level of receptivity of the farmer to basically in relation to rainfall. Though the annual
applying climate change adaptation technologies. temperature in the area shows a relative increased in
recent years, the rainfall annual values and variability
appeared much more varied from each year (Fig. 2).
Results What is obvious from questionnaire analysis is that
the majority of farmers note changes in the patterns of
Farmers’ awareness of climate change and its rainfall and temperature. A good proportion of the
impacts respondents has been engaged in agriculture for a
significant amount of years, which is enough to enable
There appears to be relatively uniform temperatures them to appreciate the change in climate over time.
and small seasonal variations, in recent years but the From Table 2, it can be seen that the majority of the
rainfall shows much more seasonal variations (Fig. 2), farmers had over 5 years’ farming experience while
though, the monthly temperature analysis shows that only a few of the respondents had 1–5 years of
the minimum temperatures during dry season appear farming experience. Based on farming experiences, it
warmer than normal in recent years. Generally, the was easy to examine the adaptation strategies
mean temperatures appear higher in recent years employed by the farmers, their interest in other
compared to the 1961–2000. The mean annual rainfall adaptation strategies, and an assessment of the will-
is bimodal in nature, at 1400 mm with peaks in July ingness of these farmers to pay for access to those
and September. The results largely show that rainfall adaptation strategies. Therefore, the farming experi-
has fluctuated at different period of the year, thus there ence was used to analyse of their perception, knowl-
are inter-annual variability in rainfall. However, there edge level, attitudes, and understanding regarding
are gradual upward trends in rainfall patterns but much climate change in the selected communities. The
more observable from the year 1997 to 2010. The results also showed that the mainstreams of the rural
rainfall has relatively undeviating trend from 1981 to farmers (73.3%) are male, while only 26.7% are
1996 but the trend appears to be upwards from the year female. These values suggest gender disparity in
1997 to 2010. Although, the decadal mean rainfall farming activities in the Southwestern Nigeria, in that
analysis show that the mean rainfall has decreased in more males engage in farming activities than females.
recent years, much more in the month of March, May, Out of this proportion, a majority of them have a
September and October. Climatically, the study area is relatively underprivileged in term of education, with
unlike other parts of the country in terms of rainfall majority of hold primary and secondary school
and temperature. The mean minimum temperature certificates, only a few of them have undergone some
ranges from 20 to 22 C while the mean maximum for tertiary education (Table 2).
the hottest months is 32.6 C (Fig. 2). The diurnal However, the majority of the farmers live below the
range of temperature is low (about 10 C) and the poverty level with the distribution of the monthly
relative humidity is high. The major reason for this income of the respondents show higher proportions of
123
GeoJournal
Fig. 2 Multi-proxy p p
stratigraphy for em m
-T x-T
e fal
l
precipitation and
Mi
n in
temperature in the study area M
a Ra
 1961 
 1966 
 1971 
 1976 
 1981 
 1986 
 1991 
 1996 
 2001 
 2006 
 2011 
Degree C Degree C Rainfall (mm)
farmers’ monthly incomes\$ 100 (Fig. 3). The Chi these farmers to pay for access to those adaptation
square values (Chi = 34.5 @ P\ 0.05) implies that strategies (Table 3). When asked if they had noticed a
level of farmers’ monthly incomes is significantly change in the typical start and end date of the rainy
determining the adaptation strategies employed by the season, many of the rural farmers answered ‘‘yes’’,
farmers, their interest in other adaptation strategies, while only a few answered ‘‘no’’ and some expressed
and the willingness of these farmers to pay for access uncertainty (Table 3). These results were validated
to those adaptation strategies (Fig. 3). Table 3 shows through the interview when many of the farmers said
the relative proportions of farmers in each age range that they have noticed changes in typical start and end
and their perception of climate change. In all age of rain season. It is also obvious from the interview
range, a majority of farmers indicated that they had that a vast majority of farmers aware of climate
indeed noticed climate change. All farmers within the change, as they said that they notice ‘‘more erratic
aged of 50 and above indicated that they had observed rainfall patterns and risen temperatures’’. The result
climate change. Also The Chi square values from interviewmoreover illustrates that the perception
(Chi = 80.053 @ P\ 0.05) implies that age and of the farmer in term of climate change varies, 72.8%
years of farming experiences determine the adaptation of the farmers responded in the affirmative, 14.9%
strategies employed by the farmers, their interest in responded in the negative while 12.3% expressed
other adaptation strategies, and the willingness of uncertainty.
123
Year
1900
1700
1500
1300
1100
900
33.0
32.0
31.0
30.0
23.0
22.0
21.0
20.0
19.0
GeoJournal
Table 2 Respondents’ characteristics according to socio-de- Table 3 Responses to the question ‘‘Have you noticed Cli-
mographic variables. Source: Survey data, 2015 mate Change’’ cross tabulated with age of respondents
Socio-economic variable Frequency % Age range (%) Yes No Not sure Total
Age 21–30 78.57 7.14 14.29 100
21–30 29 25.2 31–40 71.43 18.36 10.2 100
31–40 49 42.6 41–50 68.18 22.73 9.09 100
41–50 28 24.3 50? 87.5 0 12.5 100
51? 9 7.8
Chi = 80.053 at 0.05
Gender
Male 88 73.3
Female 32 26.7 Table 4 Responses to the question ‘‘How do you cope with
climate change?’’
Level of education
Primary 39 32.2 Coping mechanism Frequency Percentage
Secondary 48 39.7 New planting pattern 42 35.0
Tertiary 34 28.1 Irrigation 31 26.5
Length of farming experience (years) New crop hybrid 25 21.4
1–5 7 5.7 New agricultural practice 20 17.1
6–10 39 32.0 Total 117 100.0
11–15 25 20.5
[15 51 41.8
Average monthly income crop hybrid and selected spraying (Table 4). The
\N20,000 37 32.2 results from interview show that the range of adapta-
N20,000–N50,000 52 45.2 tion methods employed by the farmers is limited by the
N50,000–100,000 12 10.4 extent of the farmers’ experience, income, and access
[N100,000 14 12.2 to extension services. This is also apparent in Fig. 4
which shows the distribution of the sources fund to
farmers, for cushioning agricultural losses resulting
Female Male from climate change. About 7% respondents stated
$300- 600 that they received support from the government while
the majority of the farmers indicated that they rely on
$100- 300 personal savings, funds from cooperative societies,
support from friends and family as their means of
< $ 100 coping with crop losses due to climate change.
Furthermore, during the interview, the vast majority
0 20 40 60 80 100 of respondents stated that they had ‘‘received no
Percentage 
financial support from the government during agri-
Fig. 3 Average monthly incomes with gender of respondents cultural losses’’ resulting from climatic extreme
events.
As for the adaption to climate change and extreme For change in rainfall and temperature patterns, the
weather events, the result shows that the majority of majority of the farmers have noticed a significant
the farmers engaged in new planting pattern, with change in recent years. When asked if they had noticed
adjustment of the planting date to the climatic events. a general temperature increase over the last 15 years.
Table 4 illustrations the responses of the participants About 68.9% farmers answered ‘‘yes’’, 23% answered
when asked the questions about how they cope with ‘‘no’’ while 6.6% responded ‘not sure’ (Table 5). They
the effects of changing climatic on their farming also noticed a change in the duration of the rainy and
practices. Several of farmers indicated that they are dry seasons and their impacts on crop yield. Although,
coping by using new planting pattern; some engaged there appear to be differing opinions about current
in irrigation methods during prolong dry spells, new rainfall patterns as opposed to past trends. Many of the
123
Average monthly income
GeoJournal
Fig. 4 Sources of financial
support in event of crop
failure
rural farmers reported a delay in onset of rainfall, early the proffered adaptation measures, with the strongest
stop of rainfall, high variability in rainfall patterns and response coming fromwater-related and nutrient related
some year they noted the earlier start of rainfall adaptation technologies. Table 6 shows the adaptation
(Table 5). During the interview, the farmers reported measures, as indicated by the respondents in the survey.
that changes in climate have high impacts on their Water-related technologies appear to have a high
crops when they asked the question of if the perceived preference but some of the respondents selected the
temperature increase and change in rainfall patterns nutrient related technologies. In general, low preference
have impacts on the yield of their crops. A Large was recorded for weather related and plant engineering
number of the cocoa farmers noted the climate change adaptation methods with a significant number of
impacts on their crops. Figure 4 shows the number of respondents (Fig. 6). The correlation results, in Table 7
respondents who indicated that climate change has a show a significance relationship between the length of
perceivable impact on their crop production and crop farming experience of the farmer, and: (1) farmers’
health; and the respective crops in question. On the perceptions of changes in temperature has affected the
other extreme, rubber and vegetable farmers indicated crop yield (R2 = 19.2), (2) their tendency to rely on
the little magnitude of impact. This result is not personal savings as support against agricultural losses
surprising since the majority of rural farmers in the inflicted by climate change (R2 = 22.4), (3) their notice
study sites are cash crops farmers who engaged cocoa of a change in the end of the rain season (R2 = 25.9), (4)
plantation (Fig. 5). farmers’ awareness of the impact of changing climate on
their crops (R2 = 29.9), and (5) their interest in using
Farmers’ adaptation technology preference technology to improve crop yield (R2 = 38.1). It is
apparent from the results that the length of farming
From Table 6 and Fig. 6, it is obvious that most of the experience of the farmers do not only determines
respondents indicated amedium to a high preference for farmers’ awareness of the impact of changing climate on
their crops, but also the adaptation strategies employed
Table 5 Notice of change in climate, farmers’ responses
by the farmers, their interest in other adaptation
Frequency Percentage strategies, and the willingness of these farmers to pay
for access to those adaptation strategies (Table 7).
Rainfall patterns
Delay in onset of rainfall 21 20.0
Early stop of rainfall 16 15.2
Discussion
High variability of rainfall 28 26.7
Early start of rainfall 40 38.1
The results from this study suggest that; to determine
Increase in temperature over the last 15 years
farmer’s perception and climate change adaptation
Yes 16 15.2
strategies, the length of farming experience, income
No 28 26.7
and age are important factors, which help to under-
Not sure 40 38.1 stand the real scenarios. The results further revealed
123
GeoJournal
Fig. 5 Impact of climate
change on select crops as
perceived by the farmers
Table 6 Farmer’s technology preferences
Scoring A B C D Unsure
Water related technologies 9.90 48.51 21.78 9.90 9.91
Nutrient related technologies 11.32 46.23 23.58 7.55 11.32
Weather related technologies 11.76 38.24 19.60 14.71 15.67
Plant engineering related technologies 20.41 29.59 25.51 11.22 13.27
‘A’ represents highly preferred, ‘B’ represents medium preference, ‘C’ represents low preference and ‘D’ represents not preferred
Fig. 6 Preferences for
adaptation strategies
123
GeoJournal
Table 7 Significant correlation between length of farming experience and other relevant variables
Significant response Length of farming experience
R2
Change in temperature has affected the crop yield 19.2*
Notice of a change in the end of the rain season 25.9**
Awareness of the impact of changing climate on their crops 29.9**
Tendency to rely on personal savings as support 22.4*
Technology preferences for adaptation strategies 28.1**
* Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level
** Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level
that most farmers are sensitive to climate change, and and vegetables indicated climate change impacts on
have noticed increased in temperatures and irregular crop production less often (Fig. 5). Conversely, some
onset and duration of the rainy season, which have studies (Duku et al. 2016; Laux et al. 2010; Cam-
impacts on crop production in the study area. The marano et al. 2016; Odekunle et al. 2007; Deryng et al.
majority of the rural farmers are aware of the climate 2014) have noted impacts of climate change on crop
change, as evidenced by more irregular rainfall yields under rain-fed conditions. These studies dis-
patterns and increased temperatures. They notice also covered that the onset of the rainy season is the most
the extreme climate events such as drought occurrence important variable for crop production. In some other
and prolong dry spells within the cropping seasons. studies, rain was described as being less pre-
The main finding of this study is that climate change dictable and was thought to have a greater number of
has a profound and multifaceted impacts on agricul- ‘‘false starts’’ leading to difficulty in identifying the
tural practices; especially with respect to the most correct time to begin sowing and lesser qualities than
important climatic elements, namely rainfall and ‘‘before’’ (Lebel and Ali 2009; Oliver and Robertson
temperature. However, there still exists a vacuum in 2013; Moron and Robertson 2014; Odekunle 2006;
the existing literature, in terms of assessing farmers’ Maddison 2007).
sensitivity to climate change in Nigeria, which is the Nevertheless, the findings from the present study is
main contribution of the present study. also in line with the results from previous studies that
On the issue of assessing farmers’ sensitivity to age, income, and other socio-economic characteristics
climate change, the majority of farmers claimed that have a significant effect on farmers’ perception of
climate change as the most prevalent disaster in recent climate change (Deressa et al. 2009; Bryan et al. 2009;
years, leading to rainfall and temperature deviations Bradshaw et al. 2004; Davis and Ali 2014). Deressa
thus affecting the crop yields. Previous research by et al. (2009) had earlier reported similar findings, on the
Mall and Aggarwal (2002) has highlighted similar determinants of farmers’ choice of adaptation methods
scenarios, that increase in temperature has led to a and perceptions of climate change in the Nile Basin of
decrease in the length of the growing season and the Ethiopia. Age of the household head, income, social
yield of many crops. The high number of farmers capital, and agro-ecological settings were found to
indicated impacts of climate change on their cocoa, have significant effects on farmers’ perceptions of
cassava, yam and maize crop (Fig. 5) confirm results climate change and choice of adaptation methods. But
obtained by previous studies (Ericksen et al. 2011; years of farming experiences and farmers’ income
Jones and Thornton 2003; Laux et al. 2003; Mall and level determined the choice of adaptation methods.
Aggarwal 2002). The findings from these studies show Some studies have discovered similar results. Davis
a relationship between climatic variability and crop and Ali (2014) investigated climate change impact and
yield, and an inverse relationship between crop output adaptation in rural Bangladesh, using focus group
and climatic events. In the present study, however, discussions and key informant interviews. The study
farmers who cultivate millet, orange, sorghum, rubber concluded that climate change is indeed affecting
123
GeoJournal
agricultural production. Maddison (2007) reported on The results from this study indicate strong impacts of
perceptions of climate change in 11 African countries climate variability/chnage on crop yield; primarily
and showed that a significant number of farmers because farming activities in this region is often small
believe that temperature has already increased, and that scale and are rain-fed subsistence agriculture. The key
precipitation has declined. The present study further findings from this study are that: (1) length of farming
revealed that farmers with more experience were more experiences determine the level of awareness and
likely to notice changes in climatic conditions. The sensitivity that farmers have about climate change; (2)
study also detailed that farmers’ experience, access to the length of farming experiences also informs the
free extension services and markets are important level farmers understanding climate change and the
determinants of adaptation. Bradshaw et al. (2004) strategies they implement to cope with climate change
examined the adoption of crop diversification in and extreme weather events. The findings from the
Canadian prairie agriculture for the period between present study suggest that most farmers are sensitive to
1994 and 2002, weighing its strengths and limitations climate variability/change, and they noticed increased
for risk management; including climatic risks. Results in temperatures and irregular onset and duration of the
showed that individual farmers have undergone spe- rainy season. They perceived that these exert consid-
cialization in their cropping patterns since 1994 and erable impacts on crop production in the study area.
that that trend was unlikely to change in the immediate These results confirm the likelihood of the conclusion
future, regardless of expected climate change and that climate change will likely have mostly negative
known risk-reducing benefits of crop diversification. effects on agriculture in developing countries such as
What is obvious from the present study, as confirmed Nigeria (Banik et al. 2015; IPCC 2014; Havlı́k et al.
by previous studies, is the close link between climate 2015; Mereu et al. 2015). The major finding of this
change adaptation and mitigation in the agricultural study is that majority of farmers received little support
sector. Studies have posited thatmanyof the adaptation from the government; this puts farmers in a difficult
practices such as mixed cropping, green manure, situation and forces them to rely on savings and
agroforestry and improved rangeland management intervention from friends and family during crop
sequester carbon and recent adaptation method listed failure.
by recent studies, are essential for farmers in Africa to There is a need, therefore, for agricultural refor-
cope with change in climate. Though good agricultural mation. This will include better government policies
management practices have the potential for poverty that provide more financial aid to farmers during and
reduction, environment, and climate protection, the after crop loss due to climate change and other
present study further asserted that for climate change extreme climatic events. Farmers need this kind of
adaptation methods to be effective, local knowledge supports to cope with crop losses caused by climate
should be used in conjunction with scientific knowl- change. This resilience can be built up by the provision
edge systems. of insurance plans for farmers which are tailored to
their needs. There is a need to improve accessibility to
government loans and subsidies, especially, during
Conclusions extreme weather events. Above all, farmers should be
encouraged to plant drought resistant varieties of crops
In the present study, the perception, knowledge level in areas which are susceptible to water shortages and
and attitudes of farmers to climate change adaptation dry spells. This can be achieved by improving local
methods were investigated in some selected commu- research which can lead to the breed of appropriate
nities in the Osun state of Nigeria. The study focuses drought resistant seed varieties. Locality-specific
on understanding of climate variability/change, farm- adaptation strategies need to be developed to breed
ers understanding of how it affects their crop produc- drought-resistant varieties of crops, which can cope
tion and what measures they can take to reduce its with extreme weather events in the tropical region.
impact on their crop yield. The farmers participated in There is no doubt that development of drought
this study dependent on the favourable timing of resistant varieties of crops is a promising method of
weather seasons and rainwater for watering of plants. adaptation to climate change.
123
GeoJournal
Acknowledgements This work was a pilot study of a research Davis, P., & Ali, S. (2014). Exploring local perceptions of cli-
project funded and supported by the Department for mate change impact and adaptation in rural Bangladesh.
International Development (DFID) of the United Kingdom IFPRI Discussion Paper 01322. Washington, DC: Inter-
(UK) through The Climate Impact Research Capacity and national Food Policy Research Institute.
Leadership Enhancement in Sub-Saharan Africa programme Deressa, T. T., Hassan, R. M., Ringler, C., et al. (2009).
(CIRCLE), Grant Cohort 2. The authors thank the anonymous Determinants of farmers’ choice of adaptation methods to
reviewers for their suggestions which remarkably improved the climate change in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia. Global
contents of the manuscript. Environmental Change, 19(2), 248–255.
Deryng, D., Conway, D., Ramankutty, N., et al. (2014). Global
Compliance with ethical standards crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple
climate change futures. Environmental Research Letters,
Conflict of interest The authors declare that they have no 9(3), 034011.
competing interests. Dube, T., Moyo, P., Ncube, M., et al. (2016). The impact of
climate change on agro-ecological based livelihoods in
Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Africa: A review. Journal of Sustainable Development,
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http:// 9(1), 256–267.
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unre- Duku, C., Sparks, A. H., & Zwart, S. J. (2016). Spatial modelling
stricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, of rice yield losses in Tanzania due to bacterial leaf blight
provided you give appropriate credit to the original and leaf blast in a changing climate. Climatic Change,
author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Com- 135(3), 569–583.
mons license, and indicate if changes were made. Ericksen, P., Thornton, P., Notenbaert, A., Cramer, L., Jones, P.,
& Herrero, M. (2011). Mapping hotspots of climate change
and food insecurity in the global tropics. In CGIAR
research program on Climate Change, Agriculture and
Food Security (CCAFS). Copenhagen, Denmark.
References Fernandez, M., Rosegrant, M., Sinha, A., et al. (2007). Looking
into the future for agriculture and AKST (agriculture,
Adams, R. M., Hurd, B. H., Lenhart, S., et al. (1998). Effects of knowledge, science and technology) Chapter 5. Interna-
global climate change on agriculture: An interpretative tional Assessment of Agricultural Science and Technology
review. Climate Research, 11(1), 19–30. Development. World Bank, Washington, DC.
Adejuwon, J., & Ekanade, O. (1988). A comparison of soil Havlı́k, P., Valin, H., Gusti, M., et al. (2015). Climate change
properties under different landuse types in a part of the impacts and mitigation in the developing world: An inte-
Nigerian cocoa belt. CATENA, 15(4), 319–331. grated assessment of the agriculture and forestry sectors.
Banik, S., Pankaj, P., Naskar, S. (2015). Climate change: World bank policy research working paper.
Impacts on livestock diversity in tropical countries. In P. Ileoje, N. (2001). A New geography of Nigeria, new revised
K. Malik, R. Bhatta, J. Takahashi, R. Kohn & C. S. Prasad edition. Longman Publishers: Ibadan.
(Eds.), Livestock production and climate change (Vol. 6, IPCC. (2013). The physical science basis: Working group I
p. 162). contribution to the fifth assessment report of the intergov-
Bradshaw, B., Dolan, H., & Smit, B. (2004). Farm-level adap- ernmental panel on climate change (Vol. 1, pp. 535–531).
tation to climatic variability and change: Crop diversifi- New York: Cambridge University Press.
cation in the Canadian prairies. Climatic Change, 67(1), IPCC. (2014). Climate change 2014–impacts, adaptation and
119–141. vulnerability: Regional aspects. Cambridge: Cambridge
Bryan, E., Deressa, T. T., Gbetibouo, G. A., et al. (2009). University Press.
Adaptation to climate change in Ethiopia and South Africa: Jethi, R., Joshi, K., & Chandra, N. (2016). Toward climate
Options and constraints. Environmental Science & Policy, change and community-based adaptation-mitigation
12(4), 413–426. strategies in hill agriculture. In Conservation agriculture
Cammarano, D., Zierden, D., Stefanova, L., et al. (2016). Using (pp. 185–202). Singapore: Springer.
historical climate observations to understand future climate Jones, P. G., & Thornton, P. K. (2003). The potential impacts of
change crop yield impacts in the Southeastern US.Climatic climate change on maize production in Africa and Latin
Change, 134(1), 311–326. America in 2055. Global Environmental Change, 13(1),
Christensen, J., Hewitson, B., Busuioc, A., et al. (2007). Re- 51–59.
gional climate projections [Book Section] Climate change Kandji, S. T., Verchot, L., & Mackensen, J. (2006). Climate
2007: The physical science basis. In S. Solomon, D. Qin, change climate and variability in Southern Africa: Impacts
M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, M. and adaptation in the agricultural sector. UNEP and
Tignor & M. L. Miller (Eds.) Contribution of Working ICRAF.
Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergov- Kirkby, P., Williams, C., & Huq, S. (2015) A brief overview of
ernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cam- community-based adaptation. International centre for cli-
bridge University Press. mate change and development: Briefing paper.
Costello, A., Abbas, M., Allen, A., et al. (2009). Managing the Laux, P., Jäckel, G., Tingem, R. M., et al. (2010). Impact of
health effects of climate change. The Lancet, 373(9676), climate change on agricultural productivity under rainfed
1693–1733. conditions in Cameroon—A method to improve attainable
123
GeoJournal
crop yields by planting date adaptations. Agricultural and Nelson, G. C., Mensbrugghe, D., Ahammad, H., et al. (2014).
Forest Meteorology, 150(9), 1258–1271. Agriculture and climate change in global scenarios: Why
Laux, C., Spence, T., Kruger, C., et al. (2003). Optical diag- don’t the models agree. Agricultural Economics, 45(1),
nostics of atmospheric pressure air plasmas. Plasma 85–101.
Sources Science and Technology, 12(2), 125. Niang, I., Osman-Elasha, B., Githeko, A., et al. (2008) Africa
Lebel, T., & Ali, A. (2009). Recent trends in the Central and climate change 2007: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerabil-
Western Sahel rainfall regime (1990–2007). Journal of ity. Contribution of working group II to the fourth assess-
Hydrology, 375(1), 52–64. ment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate
Maddison, D. J. (2007). The perception of and adaptation to change.
climate change in Africa. World bank policy research Odekunle, T. (2006). Determining rainy season onset and retreat
working paper. over Nigeria from precipitation amount and number of
Mall, R., & Aggarwal, P. (2002). Climate change and rice yields rainy days. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 83(1),
in diverse agro-environments of India. I. Evaluation of 193–201.
impact assessment models. Climatic Change, 52(3), Odekunle, T., Orinmoogunje, I., & Ayanlade, A. (2007).
315–330. Application of GIS to assess rainfall variability impacts on
McGregor, G. R., & Nieuwolt, S. (1998). Tropical climatology: crop yield in Guinean Savanna part of Nigeria. African
An introduction to the climates of the low latitudes. New Journal of Biotechnology, 6(18), 2100–2113.
York: Wiley. Ojo, O. (1977). The climates of West Africa. London: Heine-
Mereu, V., Carboni, G., Gallo, A., et al. (2015). Impact of cli- mann Educational Books Ltd.
mate change on staple food crop production in Nigeria. Oliver, Y., & Robertson, M. (2013). Quantifying the spatial
Climatic Change, 132(2), 321–336. pattern of the yield gap within a farm in a low rainfall
Merino-Castello, A. (2003) Eliciting consumers preferences Mediterranean climate. Field Crops Research, 150, 29–41.
using stated preference discrete choice models: Contingent Owusu, K., Obour, P. B., & Asare-Baffour, S. (2015). Climate
ranking versus choice experiment. UPF economics and variability and climate change impacts on smallholder
business working paper. farmers in the Akuapem North District, Ghana. In Hand-
Mertz, O., Mbow, C., Reenberg, A., et al. (2009). Farmers’ book of climate change adaptation (pp. 1791–1806). Ber-
perceptions of climate change and agricultural adaptation lin: Springer.
strategies in rural Sahel. Environmental Management, Taneja, G., Pal, B. D., Joshi, P. K., et al. (2014). Farmers pref-
43(5), 804–816. erences for climate-smart agriculture: An assessment in the
Moron, V., & Robertson, A. W. (2014). Interannual variability Indo-Gangetic Plain. International Food Policy Research
of Indian summer monsoon rainfall onset date at local Institute.
scale. International Journal of Climatology, 34(4), Torquebiau, E., Berry, D., Caron, P., et al. (2016). New research
1050–1061. perspectives to address climate challenges facing agricul-
Morton, J. F. (2007). The impact of climate change on small- ture worldwide. In Climate change and agriculture
holder and subsistence agriculture. Proceedings of the worldwide (pp. 337–348). Dordrecht: Springer.
National Academy of Sciences, 104(50), 19680–19685.
123