i A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN BONGO AND BOLGATANGA CONSTITUENCIES, 2000-2008 BY MARVIN BANG-GESINA AYOO (10223647) THIS THESIS IS SUBMITTED TO THE UNIVERSITY OF GHANA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENT FOR THE AWARD OF MPHIL POLITICAL SCIENCE DEGREE JULY, 2013 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh i DECLARATION I, Marvin Bang-Gesina Ayoo, do hereby declare that apart from documentary and other sources cited and acknowledged in this study, I am duly and solely responsible for the authorship of this study carried out under the guidance and supervision of Professor A. Essuman-Johnson and Dr. Emmanuel Debrah. I further declare that, this work has not been submitted in part or whole for the award of another degree elsewhere. ------------------------------- Date…………….. Marvin Bang-Gesina Ayoo (Candidate) -------------------------------- Date…………….. Professor A. Essuman-Johnson (Principal Supervisor) -------------------------------- Date…………… Dr. Emmanuel Debrah (Co- Supervisor) University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh ii ABSTRACT Elections in Ghana have produced many interesting outcomes. The need for either a change or continuity in the administration of a country or a constituency depends on the voters’ choice in an election. An understanding of what informs the voter’s choice in an election and how the voter exercises this franchise constitute the benchmark of this study. Voters in Bolgatanga and Bongo constituencies have voted for the NDC in the six presidential elections since 1992 and their choice have been influenced by the growing number of developmental projects initiated and executed by the NDC such schools, rural electrification, roads, construction of market centres and other health facilities provided by the NDC administration. These developmental projects constitute the rationale for their voting choice in the presidential elections. However, in terms of the parliamentary elections, the consistency of voters for the NDC candidates in Bongo constituency is largely shaped by the personal qualities of the candidates, their participation and contributions to communal developmental projects, festivals and funerals in the constituency. On the other hand, the choice of the PNC candidate over the NDC candidate in the 2000 and 2004 parliamentary elections in Bolgatanga constituency was largely due to intra-party factionalism within the NDC after its parliamentary primaries which served to the advantage of the PNC candidate. University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh iii DEDICATION This work is dedicated to my parents, Mr. Matthew Ayinne Ayoo and Mrs. Leticia Asaaba Atiah for their love and inspiration in my life. University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENT My greatest appreciation and gratitude is to the Almighty God for how far He has brought me through my University education and the completion of my thesis. I am indeed grateful and thankful to the Lord for his mercy and goodness to me. I am also grateful to my supervisor, Professor A. Essuman-Johnson and Dr. Emmanuel Debrah, the Head of Political Science department for their high sense of patience, guidance and contributions towards the successful completion of this study. I sincerely appreciate and acknowledge your efforts and pray for God guidance and blessings upon your families. To all the lecturers in Political Science department, I am grateful for your support, inspiration and encouragement towards this study. I also express my heartfelt gratitude and appreciation to Mrs. Rhoda Atiah, Mr. Mba, Roland Ayoo, and Mr. Dominic Adaare for their support and contributions both kind and cash towards this study. May God replenish your contributions a thousand times. I am also grateful to my siblings, Williams, Gayheart, Patience, Portia, Aisha, Janet and to the entire family for their prayers and support during my period of study in the university. To my colleagues especially Graham, Yobo, Abigail, Mawutor, Eddie, Ohene, Joseph and Seykere who have worked tirelessly and relentlessly in many ways for the Completion of this research, I am most grateful for your efforts. To all my friends who have not been acknowledged in this work, I have not forgotten of you. May God richly bless you for your contribution to this study. University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh v TABLE OF CONTENT DECLARATION ........................................................................................................................ i ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................................... ii DEDICATION .......................................................................................................................... iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ........................................................................................................ iv TABLE OF CONTENT .............................................................................................................. v LIST OF DIAGRAMS ............................................................................................................ viii LIST OF TABLES .................................................................................................................... ix LIST OF ABBREVIATION ....................................................................................................... x CHAPTER ONE ......................................................................................................................... 1 INTRODUCTION AND THEORITICAL FRAMEWORK ...................................................... 1 1.1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................ 1 1.2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM .................................................................................... 3 1.3 RESEARCH QUESTIONS .................................................................................................. 5 1.4 HYPOTHESIS ...................................................................................................................... 5 1.5 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY .......................................................................................... 6 1.6 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY...................................................................................... 6 1.7 THEORITICAL FRAMEWORK ......................................................................................... 6 1.7.1 Weaknesses of the Behaviour theory of elections .................................................................. 11 1.7.2. Justification for the use of the Behaviour and Rational Choice Theories in explaining the study.................................................................................................................................................. 13 1.8 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY...................................................................................... 15 1.9 ORGANIZATION OF STUDY .......................................................................................... 15 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh vi CHAPTER TWO ...................................................................................................................... 17 LITERATURE REVIEW ......................................................................................................... 17 2.1 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 17 2.2 GENERAL STUDIES ON ELECTIONS ........................................................................... 18 2.3 STUDIES ON ELECTIONS IN AFRICA: THE ISSUES INVOLVED ............................ 22 2.4 STUDIES ON ELECTIONS IN GHANA .......................................................................... 25 2.4.1 PRE-INDEPENDENCE ELECTIONS IN GOLD COAST AND THE ISSUES INVOLVED: 1951, 1954 AND 1956 ELECTIONS........................................................................................................................ 26 2.4.2 POST-INDEPENDENCE ELECTIONS IN GHANA AND THE ISSUES INVOLVED: 1960, 1969 AND 1979 ELECTIONS ................................................................................................................................ 30 2.4.4 ELECTIONS UNDER THE FOURTH REPUBLIC: 1992-2008 ................................... 33 CHAPTER THREE .................................................................................................................. 48 METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................................... 48 3.1 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 48 3.2 PROFILE OF BOLGATANGA AND BONGO CONSTITUENCIES .............................. 48 3.3 RESEARCH DESIGN ........................................................................................................ 51 3.4 SOURCES OF DATA COLLECTION. ............................................................................. 51 3.5 DATA ANALYSIS ............................................................................................................. 55 3.6 ETHICAL ISSUES ............................................................................................................. 56 3.7 LIMITATIONS ................................................................................................................... 56 CHAPTER FOUR ..................................................................................................................... 58 DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS .......................................................................... 58 4.1 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 58 4.1 DATA ANALYSIS ............................................................................................................. 59 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh vii 4.2 DISCUSSIONS ................................................................................................................... 89 4.2.1 Explaining the consistency in voting behaviour of the electorate of Bongo constituency under the fourth republic. ........................................................................................................................... 89 4.2.2 Explaining variations in voting behaviour of electorate in Bolgatanga constituency, 2000- 2008 .................................................................................................................................................. 91 4.2.3 Explaining the factors that accounted for the defeat of the NDC and PNC parliamentary candidates in the year 2000 and 2008 respectively ......................................................................... 92 4.3 CONCLUSION ................................................................................................................... 93 CHAPTER FIVE ...................................................................................................................... 95 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS ..................... 95 5.1 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 95 5.2 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS .............................................................................................. 95 5.3 CONCLUSION ................................................................................................................. 101 5.4 RECOMMENDATIONS .................................................................................................. 102 5.4.1. For the political parties and candidates ................................................................................ 102 5.4.2. For the government(s) .......................................................................................................... 104 BIBLIOGRAPHY ................................................................................................................... 105 JOURNALS USED ................................................................................................................. 110 PUBLIC DOCUMENTS ........................................................................................................ 111 APPENDIX A ......................................................................................................................... 112 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh viii LIST OF DIAGRAMS Diagram 4.1 What accounted for the defeat of the NDC parliamentary candidate in the 2004 election in Bolgatanga............................................................................................................... 72 Diagram 4.2 Which parliamentary candidate did you vote for in the 2004 election? .............. 73 Diagram 4.3 Do you think internal party factions caused the defeat of the NDC and NPP in the 2004 parliamentary election in Bolgatanga constituency ................................................... 76 Diagram 4.4 Which political party did you vote for in Bongo in 2008 .................................... 78 Diagram 4.5 Which political party did you vote for in Bolgatanga in 2008 ............................ 79 Diagram 4.6 What caused the change in the parliamentary election in Bolgatanga in 2008 .. 81 Diagram 4.7 Have you been voting consistently in the parliamentary election since 2000 for one party candidate in Bolgatanga ............................................................................................ 82 Diagram 4.8 Have you been voting consistently in the parliamentary election of 2000, 2004 and 2008 for one party or candidate in Bongo constituency? ................................................... 84 Diagram 4.9 Which of these reasons could have accounted for your voting consistency in the three parliamentary elections in Bongo .................................................................................... 85 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh ix LIST OF TABLES Table 4.1 Gender of respondents in Bolgatanga and Bongo constituencies ............................. 59 Table 4.2 Age distribution of respondents in Bolgatanga and Bongo constituencies .............. 60 Table 4.3 Educational Level of Respondents in Bolgatanga and Bongo constituencies .......... 61 Table 4.4 Occupation of Respondents in Bolgatanga and Bongo constituencies ..................... 62 Table 4.5 Did you vote in the 2000 general election? .............................................................. 64 Table 4.6 Which political party did you vote for in the 2000 general election? ....................... 65 Table 4.7 Why did you vote for that party in the year 2000? ................................................... 67 Table 4.8 Which Parliamentary candidate did you vote for in the year 2000? ......................... 69 Table 4.9 Why did you vote for that parliamentary candidate? ................................................ 70 Table 4.10 Which parliamentary candidate did you vote for ? ................................................. 80 Table 4.11 Which of these reasons could have accounted for your voting inconsistency in the three parliamentary elections in Bolgatanga constituency? ...................................................... 83 Table 4.12 Did your opinion about the economy influence your vote in these elections ......... 87 Table 4.13 Which of these reasons most influenced your decisions to vote in the three elections .................................................................................................................................... 88 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh x LIST OF ABBREVIATION ADB -Agricultural Development Bank ADF -Alliance for Democratic Forces CDD - Centre for Democratic Development CPP -Convention People’s Party CVC -Citizens Vetting Committee CWSA -Community Water and Sanitation Agency DA -District Assembly DACF - District Assemblies Common Fund DAEA -Department for Agricultural Economics and Agro-business DCD -District Co-ordinating Director DCE -District Chief Executives DFP -Democratic Freedom Party DPP -Democratic People’s Party DWM - December Women’s Movement EC -Electoral Commission EGLE -Every Ghanaian Living Everywhere FNB -First National Bank GCB -Ghana Commercial Bank University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh xi GES -Ghana Education Service GNPC -Ghana National Petroleum Co-operation GT -Ghana Telecom GPRTU -Ghana Private Road Transport Union HIPC -Highly Indebted Poor Country IPAC -Inter-Party Advisory Committee ISD -Information Service Department LEAP -Livelihood Empowerment Against Poverty L.I -Legislative Instrument. MA -Municipal Assembly MCD -Municipal Co-coordinating Director MCE -Municipal Chief Executive NCCE -National Commission for Civic Education NCP -National Convention Party NDC -National Democratic Congress NIP -National Independence Party NPP - New Patriotic Party NRP - National Reform Party NYEP -National Youth Employment Programme University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh xii PHC -Population and Housing Census PHP - People’s Heritage Party PNC -People’s National Convention PNDC -Provisional National Defence Council PNP -People’s National Party PP -Progress Party SFP -School Feeding Program SPSS -Statistical Package for Social Sciences SSB -Social Security Bank SSNIT -Social Security and National Insurance Trust STC -State Transport Company UGM -United Ghana Movement UT -Unique Trust University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 1 CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION AND THEORITICAL FRAMEWORK 1.1 INTRODUCTION According to Hayward (1985) elections have been a conspicuous element in Africa’s political history since colonial rule. Scholarly works on elections in Africa immediately after independent were concentrated on party mobilization and the role of opposition party in their effort to win power. However, in the 1970s, many African countries begun experiencing dictatorial rule and hence elections at this time did not reflect democratic principles. According to Ayee (1997), elections are central to democracies because they provide opportunity for citizens to endorse or reject the performance of an incumbent. The quest for political power for either a change or continuity in government depends on the voter’s choice and the outcome of an election. The indices as to whether ‘change’ or ‘continuity’ is desirable is better expressed in elections through voting in which the electorate is an integral player. In many developing countries, elections have been a major measure in the democratic governance credentials of emerging democratic states. Elections play a pivotal role in democratic processes because they allow the electorate to assess the performance of the government they elected in the previous elections as indicated by Essuman-Johnson (2006). Elections also provide an opportunity for political parties to offer alternative choices to the electorate with their own agenda and action when given the opportunity to govern. To Keulder (1998), elections are the cornerstone of democracy in many countries across the world. If democracy is broadly defined as the act of ‘responsive government or rule’, then elections are one of the tools that ensure responsive government and to this extend, the electorate is key to this process. In a similar vein, Ball (1981) contends that, it is through University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 2 elections that citizens appoint their representatives and hold them accountable in the course of governance in a country and hence the role of elections cannot be over emphasized. Many African countries, following the ‘‘third wave of democratization’’ Huntington (1991) have come to the realization and appreciation of the democratic processes and the need to organize periodic elections. In Ghana, the long journey to democratic development and consolidation through the conduct of elections under the fourth Republic is traceable to the humble beginnings of the 1992 general elections. However, it is important to note that, the leading opposition party, the New Patriotic Party boycotted the parliamentary election on the grounds of a stolen verdict in the presidential election. This continued through to the 1996 general election where we had both the presidential and parliamentary elections held on the same day. The 1996 general elections were followed subsequently by the 2000 general election held on 7 th December, 2000, then to 2004 general elections also held on 7 th December, 2004. Following from the 2004 general election was the 2008 general elections and the most recent one, the 2012 general election. It is however important to note that, before the fourth Republic in 1993, Ghana had series of elections prior to the attainment of independence in 1957 and also the post independent era up to the beginning of the fourth Republic. In many of these elections under the fourth Republic, the awakening and participation of the electorate in the electioneering processes and their general acceptability of the use of the ballot box as one of the credible means of expressing their democratic right to vote or elect their representatives in both local and national elections calls for further understanding in explaining the behaviour of voters in elections in Ghana and what informs their voting decisions during elections with reference to Bongo and Bolgatanga constituencies. University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 3 Also, the involvement of political parties, civil society, state institutions and other non- governmental organizations as key stakeholders in matters relating to elections and electoral outcomes has enabled the process of democratic transitions through the conduct of elections in Ghana very smooth in every electoral season despite some challenges. Under the fourth Republic, the voter has always been a key actor and a participant in elections and the electoral processes as a whole. His or her decisions to vote for either a change or continuity are informed by several prevailing factors and the rationales for his or her choice(s) are critical to explaining voter behaviour in a particular constituency and for that matter Bolgatanga and Bongo constituencies. It is against this background that, the researcher seeks to explain what informs the behaviour of voters in an election the under the fourth Republic using Bongo and Bolgatanga Constituencies as the case study of this research. 1.2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM Election provides an opportunity for citizens to choose their representatives. An understanding of what informs the voter’s choice in an election and how the voter exercises this franchise constitute the benchmark of this study. Bolgatanga and Bongo constituencies have been the favourites of the NDC in terms of the presidential elections since the inception of multi-party democracy in Ghana under the fourth republic. In fact, the NDC has won all the six presidential elections under the fourth republic in these constituencies which confirms the party’s popularity in the constituencies. However, what is intriguing is that, in terms of the parliamentary elections, the people of Bolgatanga constituency exhibit a voter behaviour that is not consistent compared to the people of Bongo under the fourth republic. University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 4 In 1992, the NDC won the presidential election in Bolgatanga constituency and subsequently the NDC parliamentary candidate Mr. Patrick Akake also won the parliamentary seat in the 1992 elections. In a similar manner, in Bongo Constituency, the NDC won the presidential election in the constituency and its parliamentary candidate, Mr. Azitariga Gaaga also won the constituency seat as its first Member of Parliament of the constituency under the fourth republic. It is however important to note that, the leading opposition party, the NPP boycotted the parliamentary elections in 1992 and hence no parliamentary candidate stood on the ticket of the NPP. In the 1996 general elections, Mr. Simon Abenya won the parliamentary seat on the ticket of the NDC in Bolgatanga constituency whiles Mr. Simon Alangde also won the Bongo parliamentary seat on the ticket of the NDC. However, the pattern of voting changed in the 2000 general elections in the case of Bolgatanga constituency with respect to the parliamentary elections. The PNC parliamentary candidate, Mr. David Apasera won the parliamentary seat as against the two leading political parties NDC and NPP in Bolgatanga constituency whiles in the case of Bongo constituency, the pattern remained the same with the NDC presidential candidate winning the presidential slot and Mr. Albert Abongo winning the parliamentary seat. In the 2004 elections, the PNC parliamentary candidate, Hon. David Apasera retained the Bolgatanga parliamentary seat whiles Bongo constituency remained the same with the NDC winning both the presidential and parliamentary slots. The 2008 general elections however produced different results in the case of the parliamentary elections in Bolgatanga constituency. At this time, the NDC parliamentary candidate Mr.Opam-Brown Akolbire won the parliamentary seat from the PNC Member of University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 5 Parliament, Mr. David Apasera. However, in the case of Bongo constituency, it was still loyal to the NDC in both the presidential and parliamentary elections in the 2008 general elections. In all these elections, the pattern of voting in Bongo constituency has always been very consistent to the NDC in both presidential and parliamentary elections whiles on the other hand, the voting behaviour of voters in Bolgatanga constituency seems to be somewhat different and inconsistent compared to Bongo constituency with respect to parliamentary elections under the fourth republic. This study therefore seeks to explain what constitute the determinants of voter choice in the two constituencies with regards parliamentary elections. 1.3 RESEARCH QUESTIONS The research is premised on the following questions: 1. What are the determinants of voter choice in Bongo and Bolgatanga constituencies with regards to parliamentary elections under the fourth republic? 2. What accounts for the consistency in voting behaviour of the people of Bongo constituency towards the NDC under the fourth republic? 3. What factors caused the defeat of the NDC and PNC parliamentary candidates in the 2000 and 2008 parliamentary elections in Bolgatanga constituency respectively? 1.4 HYPOTHESIS The people of Bongo and Bolgatanga constituencies are more likely to vote for a particular party based upon its track record of development projects initiated or executed by the party. University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 6 1.5 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY The study seeks to: 1. Identify the specific determinants of voter choice in Bongo and Bolgatanga constituencies under the fourth republic. 2. Explain the reasons that accounts for the consistency in the voting pattern of electorate established in Bongo constituency under the fourth Republic. 3. Explore possible factors that accounted for the defeat of the NDC and PNC parliamentary candidates in the 2000 and 2008 parliamentary elections in Bolgatanga constituency. 1.6 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY The significance of this study is as follows: 1. It contributes to the existing literature on determinants of voter choice in parliamentary elections under the fourth republic with specific reference to Bongo and Bolgatanga constituencies. 2. By finding out what accounts for the consistency in voter behaviour of the people of Bongo, the study gives an insight into the role of ‘‘local issues’’ and how they influence voter perceptions in an election. 3. The study also explains the impact of intra-party conflicts and its effects in an election. 1.7 THEORITICAL FRAMEWORK The essence of a theoretical framework is to help the researcher explain the phenomenon in a philosophical context that brings out the underpinning variables surrounding the research problem in a proper perspective. There are several theories explaining the choice of voters in University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 7 an election and how these theories are applicable in determining voter choice in an election. Lazarsfeld, Berelson and Gaudet (1994) identified a scientific study of voter behaviour in elections into three main research models, the Sociological model, the Psycho-social model and the Rational choice theory. For the purpose of this study, the theoretical framework adopted are the Behaviour theory of elections proposed by Sheth Jagdish (1975) and the Rational choice theory by Downs (1957) in identifying the indicators of voter choice in an election. Sheth Jagdish (1975) behaviour theory of elections is based on a general explanation of individual choice behaviour in an election. The theory outlines seven fundamental components and cognitive factors that drive voters’ behaviour in elections. These seven components are;  First, issues about the economic policy of the government, the country’s foreign policy direction and agenda, social policies and leadership characteristics of the candidates in an election. These indicators mentioned above have a defining influence in a voters’ choice in an election. In this instance, Sheth Jagdish argues that, there is the tendency for voters to be persuaded by the economic policies being introduced into the system, are these policies liberal economic policies or not and their expected benefits to the economy. Similarly, governments’ relation with other external actors in the pursuit of a country’s foreign policy also has some significant influence in the choices of voters in an election. The actions and inactions of government in relation to a foreign policy issue triggers different interpretations from voters and this has the propensity to determine a voters’ choice in an election. Again, one can not underestimate the importance that voters University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 8 attach to the quality of candidates with reference to their leadership abilities and capacity to deliver on their promises to the electorate. When voters are convinced with the leadership qualities of a particular candidate, they are more likely to vote for such a candidate and trust that he or she will deliver to their expectations. This is what Anebo (2006) describes as issue salient voting in elections where the voters are persuaded by issues and not sympathy or emotions. In the case of Bolgatanga and Bongo constituencies, one of the indicators that voters look out for in parliamentary candidates is their capacity to lead the people and to project the image of their constituency in their development agenda. For instance, in assessing the leadership qualities of parliamentary candidates in Bongo, the NDC has always presented a candidate that is known to the people and the people can also testify to some of the leadership qualities such candidates have exhibited over the years in Bongo constituency compared to the other political parties and their candidates. This explains why for the past twenty years they have always voted for the NDC parliamentary candidates because they exhibit better leadership qualities known to the people than the other candidates.  Secondly, social imagery factors also counts a lot in determining a voters’ persuasion in an election. The Behaviour theory of elections refers to these factors as primary and secondary groups that are supportive of a particular candidate in an election. To this extend, the Candidate(s) in question acquire certain positive and negative stereotype based on their association or groups with varied demographic characteristics such as sex, age, religion, region, culture, ethnic lineage, occupation, lifestyle and ideology and these factors have the propensity to influencing voter behaviour in an election. University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 9 It is possible for a voter to base his voting decision on religion, culture or ethnic lines without recourse to pertinent issues of socio-economic importance to the people. These inherent divisions of voting behaviour have been argued by Anebo (2006) and Jagdish (1975) where they both contend that in developing countries these stereotypes play a very critical role in linking voters to parties representing each major social sector, based on divisions of ethnicity, religion, region or class. In a similar vein, the Sociological model as advocated by Lazarsfeld, Berelson and Gaudet (1994) where they devoted much effort at determining the effects of ones social setting in an election. By social setting, it refers to whether a community is defined as rural, urban or cosmopolitan and how that has a defining influence on the voting choices of electorate. With respect to Bolgatanga (urban) and Bongo (rural) constituencies, both have different persuasions in deciding whom to vote for in an election. The Sociological model developed by the social research of Columbia University emphasizes the elements of social factors as one of the key determinants of voter choice in an election. These social factors are not only peculiar to a particular environment but have the propensity to arise during elections and hence could influence the persuasions of voters in an election. Whiles acknowledging the cleavages that exist in group behaviour of a particular setting, Campbell et al (1954) identifies three factors that constitutes the Psychological variables relevant in determining peoples’ voting choices in an election. These are, party identification, governmental policies and personal attraction to candidates. The third component of Jagdish’s (1975) theory is that of emotional feeling attached to a candidate in an election. To this extend, the voter is likely to be sympathetic to University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 10 the plight of the candidate or show some solidarity, affection or hatred to the candidate and these could eventually affect the choice of the voter in an election. This sympathy system of voting was manifested in Bolgatanga constituency where the incumbent MP, Hon David Apasera was involved in a motor accident prior to the 2004 general elections. The incumbent MP went to campaign grounds on crutches or in some cases on a wheelchair whiles campaigning to the people in the constituency. With this predicament, some voters were very sympathetic to the plight of the MP hence they voted for him in the parliamentary elections of 2004.  The fourth component that has the tendency to persuade voters in an election is the image of the candidate(s). His personal traits and some key attributes such as the level of respect the candidate shows to the people, is the candidate courteous in his utterance, is the candidate approachable and show some compassion to the plight of the people he or she seeks to govern and above all, does the candidate understand the local issues within the constituency he seeks to represent. These are some of the questions considered by voters in their choice of candidates in an election. According to Lazarsfeld et al (1994), the act of voting in an election was an independent and individual decision which is mainly affected by the personality of the voter and what he or she thinks of the candidates contesting in the election.  The fifth component identified by the behaviour model of election is current issues of national and international dimension. This refers to the set of issues and policies that develop during the course of campaigning be it in the domestic environment or the international setting that has the tendency to change a voter’s original choice in an election. This could cause the voter to switch his or her vote to another candidate based on some significant changes in the domestic or external environment. University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 11  The sixth set of reasoning from Sheth’s Behaviour model is Personal events. This refers to indications in the personal life of the candidate which has the propensity of drawing voters to the candidate or sending voters away from the candidate. These personal events could be from the candidate’s lineage, health condition, his religious stands, norms and traditions. The role of electoral campaigns and the influences of social groups to which the individual belongs both have some varying degree of influences in an election and the results that are produced.  The final component of Jagdish’s theory is epistemic issues. This refers to reasons that would justify the perceived satisfaction of curiosity, knowledge and newness of ideas that a particular candidate will bring to bear in a constituency and that will inform a voters’ decision to vote for that candidate or not. This point explains why the voters in Bolgatanga constituency decided to vote for the PNC parliamentary candidate in the year 2000 as against the incumbent MP, Hon. Simon Abengya because they believed the PNC parliamentary candidate would bring some newness of ideas in the constituency than the incumbent MP. 1.7.1 Weaknesses of the Behaviour theory of elections Sheth Jagdish (1975) behaviour theory of elections contains some inherent weaknesses that were identified in this study, these weaknesses are;  To assume that voters are persuaded on the grounds of emotions and sympathies to candidates competing in an election is to belittle the intelligence and rationality of voters in an election. Hence to relegate to the background, the rationality of voters in an election will not stand the test of time. It is my contended opinion that, voters are rational human beings who are likely to act rationally based on the available options at their disposal. University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 12  To suggest that, a voters’ choice in an election is based on his environmental settings or location paints the picture as if certain locations have a constant tradition of voters and voting pattern that can not be broken. Just as time changes, voting decisions are also likely to change in particular location to challenge the status-quo established over the years.  The theory places little emphasis on the impact of internal party politics on voters and how such intra-party issues influences voters in an election. It is against these inherent weaknesses that, this research employs a second theory called the Rational Choice theory by Downs (1957) to cater for the fallouts in the Behaviour theory of elections established earlier by Sheth Jagdish (1975). The Rational Choice theory is based on the assumption that, the voter has a sense of rationality in his or her behaviour and hence is most likely to vote for a particular candidate because of certain perceived benefits he or she is likely to get in voting for such a candidate. In short, the motivation behind a voters’ choice is based on the benefits the voter is likely to derive either directly or indirectly as a result of his choice in an election. According to Downs’ theory, rationality implies “engaging in pursuits of goals in the most reasonable way possible” that suits the individuals’ preferences. Down (1957) identifies five ways that constitute his perspective of rationality in an individuals’ choice. These are; 1. The ability of the individual to make an informed decision in the midst of several alternatives available for the voter to choose. 2. The ability of the individual to rank or order his preferences based on the available alternatives. 3. The rankings of the individual should be transitive. University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 13 4. The ability of the individual to choose the most preferred alternatives. 5. The ability of the individual to avoid contradictions when presented with the same alternatives to choose in an election. The Rational Choice theory assumes that, in every decision of the voter in an election comes with an associated benefit known to the voter and the voter is then motivated to act rationally because of the benefits associated with the choice that he or she is likely to make in an election. To this extend, the electorate will vote for a particular candidate bearing in mind the benefits to be derived from such a choice in an election. 1.7.2. Justification for the use of the Behaviour and Rational Choice Theories in explaining the study. These two theories apply extensively to the research study because they best explain why the voters in the constituencies vote in an election and what informs their voting choices over the years in an election. The following reasons justify how the Behaviour theory of elections and the Rational Choice theory explain the study; 1. From the analysis of the data obtained in chapter four of this research work, majority of voters in Bongo constituency representing 89.0% where of the opinion that, their voting decisions in the elections of 2000, 2004 and 2008 were based on party loyalty to the NDC and its candidates. This goes to buttress the arguments made by the Behaviour theory on party identification models of voting in an election where voters are persuaded by faithful loyalties to a particular party over the years. In this case, the voters of Bongo have been voting very faithfully for the NDC and its parliamentary candidates from 1992 to 2012. University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 14 2. Again, majority of voters in both constituencies were also of the opinion that, their voting decisions in elections are based on their conviction of certain development promises made to them by the candidates competing in these elections and hence they voted for candidates who offered a real opportunity of socio-economic development in the constituency. This is also in line with the arguments put forward by Downs (1957) Rational Choice theory where voters expect some benefits in return from the candidates as they cast their votes for a particular party or candidate in an election. 3. Another justification is that, some voters in Bolgatanga constituency in the 2004 parliamentary election voted for the incumbent MP, Hon. David Apasera of the PNC because they were attached by some level of sympathy for the incumbent MP because he was involved in a motor accident that got him moving to the campaign grounds sometimes on a wheelchair. Some emotional voters therefore exercised their voting right on this incidence and this worked to the advantage of the incumbent MP and led to him winning the 2004 parliamentary election in Bolgatanga constituency. 4. Many of the voters in both constituencies evaluated the personality of the candidates before making their voting decision in an election. A candidate who was inward looking and did not associate himself or herself with the people as well the customs and traditions of the people were likely not to be voted for by majority of the voters in both constituencies. This perhaps explains why in 2004, between Hon. Albert Abongo and Hon. Andrews Awuni, the voters of Bongo felt the personality of Hon. Albert Abongo was more satisfactory to them than Hon. Andrews Awuni. In a similar way, the role of the candidates’ personality also showed clearly between Hon. Simon Abenya (NDC) and Mr. David Apasera (PNC) in the 2000 parliamentary elections in Bolgatanga constituency. The voters felt Mr. David Apasera was a more open and receptive personality who associated very well with the voters than Hon. Simon University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 15 Abengya who was then the deputy minister of energy and was more concentrated on government business than matters relating to his constituency. These illustrations given above, justifies why the Behaviour theory and the Rational Choice theory are suitable for the study in understanding why voters in Bolgatanga and Bongo constituencies voted over the years and what are the determinants of their voting choices in an elections with particular reference to the parliamentary elections of 2000, 2004 and 2008. 1.8 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY The following were the limitation of the research work encountered by the researcher in the entire process of the study; 1. The study was limited to only two constituencies out of 15 constituencies that constitute the Upper East region but some other constituencies’ in the region exhibit similar pattern of voting behaviour in elections under the fourth republic but because of resource constraint the study was unable to cover other constituencies within the region and by extension the country. 2. The research was conducted with the limited personal savings of the researcher who at the time of this study was unemployed and hence encountered some financial challenges. 3. The difficulty in obtaining information from some public institutions such as the Electoral Commission, the District and Municipal Assemblies created some delays in the final execution of the research work. 1.9 ORGANIZATION OF STUDY The study is organized into five chapters; University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 16 Chapter one focuses on introduction and the conceptual framework of the study. It discusses the core issues that have influenced voter’s voting choices with appropriate literature on voting choices. Chapter two takes a look at the relevant literature on elections in Ghana and the issues that have dominated elections in Ghana prior to independence, independence and post independence era. Chapter three concentrates on the methods used to gather data and explains their usefulness to the study. It also includes the profile of the two constituencies in perspective. Chapter four presents and discusses the core data collected from the field. Chapter five concludes, summarises the findings and makes recommendations for future studies. University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 17 CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 INTRODUCTION Volumes of studies have been conducted by scholars on elections and their outcomes. Some of these studies have focused extensively on presidential elections and little attention to constituency based comparative observation of electoral outcomes. It is this gap of insufficient works in establishing a comparative basis of constituency analysis of voter’s choices particularly with respect to parliamentary elections that this study seeks to underscore using the case of Bolgatanga and Bongo constituencies under the fourth republic with respect to parliamentary elections. However, it is of interest to note that, there has been more outstanding works on elections that date back to pre-independence times and the post-independence period that cannot be overlooked. Post independence works on elections cannot be complete without mention of the likes and works of Robinson and Mackenzie (1960), T.E Smith (1960), Naomi Chazan (1983) and Hayward (1987), all attest to the fact that, there have been some studies on elections in Africa. Similarly, the works of Apter (1963), Austin (1964), Tordoff (1979), chazan and Le vine (1979) and Jeffries (1980), are all indication of works done in relation to elections in developing countries. In recent times, Ninsin (1993), Oquaye (1995), Nugent (1995), Badu and Larvie (1996),Gyimah-Boadi (1997) Mc Carty (1997), Ayee (1997, 2001), Agyeman-Duah (2005) and Boafo- Arthur (2006) all give credence to the works done on elections within the Ghanaian context. University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 18 The literature review will be in two phases; the first phase will cater for general studies on elections and the resultant indices that are produced across the world, the second phase will be studies on elections in Africa and its manifestations. The third phase will be studies on elections in Ghana and the politics that surrounds such elections as well as what informs the choice of voters. 2.2 GENERAL STUDIES ON ELECTIONS Elections in many parts of the world have been fiercely contested by political parties and actors that are involved in it. The reasons behind their decisions to contest for political power are wide and varied and can be viewed from different perspective depending on where you stand. In a similar vain, the decision to vote for a particular political party or candidate in an election also posits varied answers depending upon where one stands and views issues in global, national and local politics. The factors that influence a voter’s decision in an election differ from country to country. The indices surrounding the elections, the specific issues that are channelled out for political campaigning by the various parties and their messages, resources both human and capital all have an influential role in an election. According to Wiarda and Kline (1985), Latin American political tradition differs in many ways from the persuasion and preference of voters in the United States of America and Western Europe. To them, the distinctiveness of the political system, the actors involved and the historical trajectories of Latin America as against western Europe is reflected in the composition and interrelationships of political groups in their various societies and how effective and functional these groupings are, to influencing the preference of voters in an election. However, there is considerable disagreement as to whether Latin America has a political system composed considerably of interest groups struggle that is very active in University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 19 influencing electoral outcomes or the United States of America. Admittedly, there is more competition among various interest group actors and their role in influencing electoral outcomes in the United States than in Latin America as suggested by Anderson (1985) in assessing the impact of interest groups in elections. This assertion by Anderson (1985) corroborates the views held by Wiarda and Kline (1985) that interest group participation in elections varies geographically and their levels of influences in electoral outcome are not also the same across board. Wiarda and Kline (1985) also assert that, in the United States, the major interest groups such as religious groups and other lobby groups are assumed to be independent from the government and seek to influence voters in elections whereas in Latin America such agencies as the church, the army, the university and trade unions are often more than mere interest groups: they are an integral part of the state system and indispensable from it. There is some degree of governmental control over these agencies and their actions and inactions are invariably directed or to some extent dictated by the ruling class or elite who seek to use them to influence their electoral advantage. It is my considered opinion that, in electoral politics, the role of interest groups, pressure groups or civil society has a way of influencing electoral outcomes to suit one party or the other based on their interest and persuasions. However, in my areas of study, local actors and organized social groups such as Women in sheabutter production, basketry, poultry production and other smaller youth groups involved in animal husbandry were very influential during election period and candidates had to lobby support and direct their campaigns towards these interest groups in Bongo and Bolgatanga constituencies for their votes. University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 20 Anderson (1985) in contributing to the debate on the role of interest groups in elections and their variations of influences geographically suggested that, the mobilization of votes in an election is not the only legitimate way to obtain political power. To him, pressure groups do not necessarily work for political power by seeking votes, or influencing their supporters to opt for a particular political party but they stand to preserve and to protect their own interest. Fundamentally, elections in many developed countries across the world are usually based on competing ideas by competing interest groups. These interest groups then organize and galvanize support in terms of voters and votes in an election to favour their interest or persuasions. These competing ideas could be in economic development, social protection and other mitigating policies to cushion the poor and the vulnerable in society, access to credit and other business opportunities and good governance. These among others occupy the minds of politicians and candidates competing in an election. Electoral studies have attracted many scholars across the world to seek keen interest in elections and the politics that surrounds such elections. What goes into the voters mind before a decision is made to vote for a particular candidate or party, the personality of the candidate, the campaign messages and the political trajectory of the area all have some significant inputs in determining a voter’s choice in an election. In assessing the victories of former president Harry Truman and the re-election of former President Dwight Eisenhower in 1945 and 1956 respectively in the United States of America, Campbell et al (1964) concluded that, the rationale behind the voting behaviour exhibited in the two elections were as a result of a strong party system and affiliation of voters to either being ‘Republicans’ or ‘Democrats’. This contention is clearly demonstrated by the predominance of the two party systems in America. University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 21 However, it is not only party affiliation of voters that have the propensity to influencing the choices of voters in an elections .Voters are also influence by lobby groups, interest groups and sometimes religious persuasions and personality of the candidates. Lipset and Rokken (1967) provide a pioneering understanding of the issues in terms of their theoretical perspective and underpinning of how voters behave in an election in many parts of Europe and other established democracies across the world. They concluded that, issues such as education, health care policy, welfare schemes, socio-economic development and the provision of social amenities among others are the determining factors that influence voters in terms of their decision to vote for a particular candidate or party in an election. This is aptly described by Anebo (2006) as salient issues in voter behaviour. However, this is in sharp contrast to the earlier arguments espoused by Wiadra and Kline (1985) on the persuasions and motivation of voters in an election. The conclusions drawn by Lipset and Rokken (1967) and Wiadra and Kline (1985) are at variance and pose the question, what do voters look out for in candidates and political parties before they decide to vote? It is against this backdrop of varied information of geographical dimension of voter persuasions and behaviour that, the research seeks to ascertain further answers to the determinants of voter choice under the fourth republic with a focus in Bolgatanga and Bongo constituencies with respect to the parliamentary elections. In assessing the two contesting but varied arguments put forward by Lipset and Rokken (1967), Wiadra and Kline (1985) and Anebo (2006), there is no denying the fact that, in the American political system, it is dominated by two major political traditions, Republicans and Democrats whose style and ideology of governance, social policy and economic models may differ but they both have America’s national interest at heart. Their politics may divide them, University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 22 the parties may divide them, their ideology may divide them but the interest of America and the citizens of America are far greater than their individual-party persuasion and interest. Also, we cannot also relegate to the background, the factors that motivates voter to look out for options that seek to influence their personal inclination and satisfaction. Hence, voters would always look out for issues concerning education, health, and social infrastructure, management of the economy, economic development and good governance among others. In a study to assert how people vote in a particular pattern, the Michigan study model averts our understanding to the fact that, there is always the common tendency to characterize large blocs of voting patterns in such terms as “liberal” or “conservative” and this according to the Michigan Model greatly exaggerates the actual level of consistency in patterning in voter behaviour. However, the Michigan model of voter behaviour has consistently failed to establish the direct link in terms of surveys conducted and the consistency of the role ideological thinking play in influencing electoral outcomes. This perhaps emphasizes the general deficiency in the Michigan model. In contrast, the ‘American voter’ portrayed an electorate whose orientations towards politics and political ideologies were strongly influenced by partisan loyalties developed early in life in American history and has an overriding effect on short-term forces such as popularity of candidate. 2.3 STUDIES ON ELECTIONS IN AFRICA: THE ISSUES INVOLVED Many African countries have had turbulent times in their quest to democratize through elections as the common denominator. The period before the collapse of communism was seem as Africa’s worse authoritarian regimes exerted by both civilian and military governments with little space for opposition elements to participate as argued by Villalon and University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 23 Von Doepp (2005). However, external pressures from the west and other Bretton Wood institutions intensified their quest to push for further reforms in Africa. Added to these were sharp decline in economic indicators and Africa’s export commodity prices such as cocoa, coffee, timber and gold in the world market. As a result, many African Countries suffered from hunger, underdevelopment and economic stagnation. The bitterness and frustration of many African Countries were further compounded by issues relating to corruption, mismanagement and bad governance that gave room to wanton dissipation of public property into personal hands and this had a sterling effect on the economies of Africa as argued by Joseph (1999). From the two scholar’s point of view, many Africa countries prior to the introduction of multi party democracy was besieged with bad governance and mal-administration that gained momentum through military interventions or other unauthorized means than elections. In instance where elections were held, it was just a mere formality of according legitimacy to the ruling class. In the view of Saaka (1997) he describes such situations as ‘‘legitimizing the illegitimate’’. Hayward (1987), in his book “Elections in Independent Africa” gives a perspective on elections in most African countries and comes to the conclusion that, African political elite often employ political power, the use of incumbency advantage and sometimes use force to intimidate voters and manipulate the electoral process to their advantage. According to Wantchekon (2003), comparative political scholars have long considered electoral politics in African to be systematically and inherently clientelistic. In his view, African political elites either by self imposition or elected, they often turn to skew their political rule on the distribution of personal favours to selected members or groups that are sympathetic to the ruling class and are likely to also return favour by supporting the ruling University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 24 class through elections or other an orthodox means to guarantee more favours and supports. This observation implicitly asserts the view that, African voters invariably have a much stronger preference and allegiance for private transfers than for public goods. The arguments of Gyimah-Boadi (2007b) and Frempong (2012) further buttresses the point made by Wantchekon (2003) on the clientelistic nature of Africa election. Gyimah-Boadi (2007) in contributing to elections in Africa indicates that, in many developing countries especially in Africa, elections and electoral campaigns are usually not based on issues relating to the economy, governance, development and security. The political party that makes significant efforts at campaigning on issues was most likely going to lose the elections. As a result, African political elites relied on ethnic bonds, personality of candidates, party symbols, party affiliations and loyalties rather than policies and visions of parties. This phenomenon is so because African elections are often characterized by direct or indirect mobilization of ethnic votes partly reflecting in their inability to articulate better policies to the electorate and thus deepens the relevance of ethnicity in African politics. In his book on Electoral politics in Ghana’s fourth Republic, Frempong (2012) asserts that, transition elections in Africa occurred in the early parts of 1990s which saw a wave of competitive multiparty elections which significantly marked the end of some authoritarian regimes to an era of transitional democratic rule through periodic election. According to Bratton and Van de walle (1997), between 1989 and1994, almost all the countries in sub-Saharan Africa underwent significant political reforms that resulted in the conduct of first competitive elections in their respective countries after the end of some authoritarian regimes. These elections were characterized by some intense violence and ethnic cleavages. As a result, African politicians began galvanizing support on the basis of University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 25 such ethnic identities and this phenomenon has continued to present day in many African countries. In his view, Gyimah-Boadi (2007) is of the opinion that, elections in African were often characterized by overt and covert mobilization of ethnic votes within a particular setting to favour a particular candidate and not necessarily an election based on campaign issues or policies. He further argues that, Africa political parties and candidates as well as voters skew their decision to vote in an election on personalities, tribal allegiance and party loyalties rather than policies and issues. 2.4 STUDIES ON ELECTIONS IN GHANA Ghana has a very enviable record when it comes to elections and indices surrounded electoral politics in the sub-region. The history behind Ghana’s electoral politics and democratic consolidation is traceable to the humble and moderate beginning of the fourth republic which took-off from 1993 following the 1992 presidential and parliamentary elections which were held in November and December respectively. It is however important to note that, before the 1992 general elections, there were elections held in 1951, 1954, 1956, 1957, 1960, 1969, and 1979 that produced remarkable electoral outcomes that cannot be forgotten when discussing the political history of electoral politics in Ghana. Before the 1992 general elections, some studies were conducted in the early parts of 1950s and 1960s by scholars such as Dennis Austin (1964) and David Aptar (1963) on “politics in Ghana, 1946-1960” and “Ghana in Transition” respectively. These studies on Ghana’s election according to Ayee (2001), did not encompass the entire electoral processes of campaigning, the issues of politics that made news at that time and other economic indicators but were relatively limited in scope to the analysis of the electoral results. The studies of Dennis Austin (1964) and David Aptar (1963) made use of the accumulated electoral results University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 26 and data to analyze aggregate electoral changes which invariably provided little evidence on the factors influencing voter’s decision making in those elections. Another deficit to such mode of analysis is that, the reader is unable to appreciate into details the ideologies of such political parties that contested these elections, what they stood for, what they intend to pursue and how they will pursue it, there was little information in that respect. However, their works served as a basis for future reference and a benchmark for improving upon future studies of electoral politics in Ghana after the 1960s to which many contemporary scholars have cited. 2.4.1 PRE-INDEPENDENCE ELECTIONS IN GOLD COAST AND THE ISSUES INVOLVED: 1951, 1954 AND 1956 ELECTIONS Before I make an attempt to review literature on elections in Ghana under the forth Republic, it is important to note that, Ghana has had a long track record of organizing elections that dates back to the colonial period of Governor Guggisberg where the ‘Elective Principle’ was introduced for the first time in Gold Coast in 1925. This continued in 1946 under Governor Alan Burns till the 1951 elections in which the C.P.P won majority seats in the legislative Assembly and Dr. Kwame Nkrumah became the Leader of Government Business and later the Prime Minister. The 1951 elections were followed by the 1954 elections, the 1956 elections and plebiscite supervised by the U.N on whether the people of the Trans-Volta Togo land will join Gold Coast to gain independence or not. This was followed with the 1965 elections which made Ghana a ‘de jure’ one party state with the CPP as the only party to contest elections as indicated by Oquaye (1982). Following the unconstitutional overthrow of the CPP government through a military coup d’état in 1966 led by the National Liberation Council (NLC) which took over the reigns of power from 1966-1969, when elections were organized in 1969 which brought the Progress University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 27 Party (PP) into power. The Progress Party’s regime was also truncated mid way through its administration by a military coup d’état led by the National Redemption Council (NRC) and subsequently to the Supreme Military Council I (SMC) and Supreme Military Council II (SMC) before another military coup d’état led by the Armed Forces Revolutionary Council (AFRC) in 1979 as indicated by Oquaye (1982). It took Ghana another ten years before the 1979 elections which vested power in the hands of the Peoples National Party (PNP) and after twenty seven months, the PNP was also over thrown by another military regime called the Provisional National Defence Council (PNDC) and that was the last election held before the fourth Republic. The five military interventions in the political history of Ghana did not give much space to the democratically elected government to rule and execute their policies to the latter and this military infractions created more dislike and mistrust in the ruling class and the society at large. Furthermore, the military interventions did not allow the Ghanaian electorate to enjoy to the fullest, their right to elect and determine who should govern them at every given time. According to Gocking (2005), the politics surrounding the 1951 elections were quiet elusive and historic because it was the first ever elections to be held under universal adult franchise in Gold Coast. The 1951 election was an election in which the CPP had some considerable advantage in terms of its ability to mass up support and their organizational superiority over the UGCC. The CPP was also more appealing to the youth and a lot of young men and women joined the frontline of party politics under the CPP. This was evidence in a land mark case in which the CPP candidate for Cape Coast, Mr. Kwesi Plange was able to get the legislative council to agree to reducing the voting age from 25 to 21, which benefitted himself because he was under 25years at the time of his election as a CPP parliamentary candidate for cape coast. University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 28 Apparently, this decision later benefited the political fortunes of the CPP and their chances in the 1951 elections because the party was more appealing to the youth and the down trodden in society than the UGCC that was galvanized and sponsored by an elitist intelligentsia group comprising seasoned professionals and business merchants. In reviewing these two similar position exposed by Austin (1964) and Gocking (2005), it is clear that, organizational efficiency, popular support for the CPP and the role played by local actors and associations such as farmers, fishermen and the youth were very instrumental to the success of the CPP in the 1951 elections. An attempt at underestimating these factors stated above will be mischievous if not losing site of the facts. However, to limit the victory of the CPP in the 1951 elections to efficiency in party organization and support from cooperative groups will be an understatement. In accounting for the victory of the CPP in the 1951 elections, the leadership role played by K.A Gbedemah and Krobo Edusei cannot be ignored or understated. Also the campaign messages that were channelled out, alongside the propaganda and the charisma of Dr. Kwame Nkrumah worked the magic for the CPP in the 1951 elections that led to their victory. Following the historic 1951 election, there was another election in Gold Coast in 1954 that produced very interesting and divergent permutation in terms of the electoral outcomes and the alliances that were formed. The 1954 election was also remarkable in the sense that, it was the election that saw the formation of political parties on the basis of religion, religion, ethnicity and other forms of identities. Buzzi (2002) also argues that, differences between ethnic groups and the antagonism that exist among them are further compounded by the nature of Africa’s multi-ethnic societies and each ethnic group claiming superiority over another. This according to Buzzi (2002) is University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 29 what fuels ethnic rivalry between and among ethnic groups which are further exploited extensively by African political elites during elections to galvanize support and votes. In reviewing contributions made by Frempong (2001), Buzzi (2002) and Gocking (2005) on the role of ethnicity, religion and region in the 1954 elections, the manifestations and resultant influence of these identity groups or political parties that were formed on the basis of identity groups did not play much to influence the chances of the CPP in the 1954 election nor did it prevent the CPP from winning the 1954 elections by 72 out of 104 constituencies as indicated by Frempong (2012). However, it was a clear manifestation of how polarized the society was and the extent to which it could degenerate if care is not taken to prevent the deliberate exploitation of an ethnic agenda by the political class in the politics of Gold Coast. However, to underestimate the role of ethnicity, religion, regionalism and other identities in the electoral politics of Ghana will be an understatement. These have played and continuous to play key roles in influencing electoral outcomes under the fourth Republic. Following from the 1954 election came the 1956 election that also hard similar manifestation like the 1954 elections with regional blocs and ethnic cleavages smearing its ugly face in the politics of the 1956 election. Again, this clearly buttresses the point that, political victories of the 1951, 1954 and 1956 elections were not won on the basis of identities neither were they significantly induced to a large extent on the basis of regional or religious identities. However, one cannot relegate to the background the role of ethnic politics and its impact in electoral outcomes. As a result of the potential danger of such identity politics, in 1957 the Avoidance of Discrimination Act (ADA) was passed and it made illegal all political parties formed on the basis of region, religion or other ethnic identities. This provision is further stressed upon by Ghana’s 1992 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 30 constitution, Article 55(4) which states ‘‘every political party shall have a national character and membership shall not be base on ethnic, religious, regional or other sectional divisions’’ 2.4.2 POST-INDEPENDENCE ELECTIONS IN GHANA AND THE ISSUES INVOLVED: 1960, 1969 AND 1979 ELECTIONS To have full control in the internal affairs of the country, Ghana gained the status of a Republic in 1960 following a plebiscite-cum-election held to determine whether Ghana would become a Republic or not and also to choose the country’s first democratically elected president under the 1960 constitution. The results of the plebiscite was a ‘YES’ votes representing 88 per cent and 12 per cent for ‘No’ votes. In the presidential race between Kwame Nkrumah of the CPP and J.B Danquah of the United Party (UP), the former won 89 per cent and was declared Ghana’s first elected president. Following from the 1960 election was a referendum held in 1964 that endorsed Ghana as a ‘‘de jure’’ one party state with the CPP as the only party. The results of the referendum were fascinating and interesting as argued by Boahen (1975) and Frempong (2012). Fore instance, the total ‘Yes’ votes that supported a one party state was 99.9 per cent with not a single ‘No’ vote recorded in the Asante region that was a strong hold of the opposition group. It is my contended opinion that, the referendum was manipulated significantly to favour the incumbent CPP government to entrench their political rule. The 1969 elections were exploited by the political class using the ethnic card and identity and that worked to the advantage and victory of the Progress Party (PP) that had a larger ethnic followers based on five traditional Akan regions compared to its closet political rival, the National Alliance of Liberals (NAL) that had only the Volta region to exploit using the ethnic card as its political tool. In terms of the politics of the 1969 elections, much attention was laid on galvanizing ethnic votes and sympathies to winning the elections and little attention on University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 31 issues relating to ‘bread and butter’, the state of the economy and the level of competence and capabilities of the candidates. Critical questions such as what policy alternative were the various political parties offering? Who offered the best choice for socio-economic development and political advancement of the country? Which political party will be the best manager of the economy? All these questions received less attention and answers and all efforts were concentrated on securing votes through ethnic identity. As argued by Twumasi (1975), all the political parties that contested the 1969 elections had nothing uniquely different in their manifestoes that could be use to distinguish one party from another, nor did any of the political parties have a substantial program outline in terms of policy direction and vision when given the political mantle to govern. All the political parties emphasized the need for a rural renaissance, encouraging and promoting Ghanaian entrepreneurs and building more schools and hospitals and other infrastructural developments. Improvements in the agricultural sector particularly major exports commodities such as cocoa and Timber, and other cereals were also outline by some of the parties. Creating an enabling environment for foreign direct investment, attracting external support and donor partners were also envisaged by the parties. Twumasi (1975) furthers argues that, the seemingly similar nature of the policies of all the political parties could be attributed to the stance taken by the National Liberation Council (NLC) regime which pronounce a welfare regime grounded on four thematic phases of the Ghanaian economy which were; the private sector, a joint private/government sector, a government sector and the cooperative sector. This was rather in sharp contrast to the state interventionist policy adopted by the CPP government. As Jeffries (1980) admits, free and fair elections do not often take place in the middle of revolutions but the 1979 June 4 th Revolution was more of an attempt at dealing with the University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 32 excesses of impunity and moral decadence that existed in the Ghanaian society than economic structural transformation. The regime was to undertake a ‘house cleaning exercise’ that would bring probity, accountability, equity and tolerance in society as cardinal moral values that should be upheld at all course. To Frempong (2009), the 1979 elections offered better electoral lessons because it produced one of the fairest results in the country’s electoral history that students of electoral history of Ghana cannot relegate to the background in assessing elections in Ghana. In all, six political parties and four independent presidential candidates contested the elections. The Peoples’ National Party (PNP) led by Dr. Hillar Limann was an amalgamation of the old folks of the CPP members and its affiliates. The Popular Front Party (PFP) was led by Victor Owusu which was a replica of the Progress Party (PP) and its members that had their administration truncated in the 1972 coup d’état. As Oquaye (1980) admits, the presence of all the political parties added colour and variety to the 1979 elections and perhaps re-awaken the old rivalry between the CPP and the UP tradition in Ghanaian politics but in a different form with different political actors. In assessing the literature provided above, the parties made strong effort to have a balance of power and this resulted in the south- north balance of power divide in the determination of presidential candidates and running mate. This was evidence when the leader of the Peoples National Party (PNP) from the upper Region chose J. W. S De Graft-Johnson from the central region as his running mate, Victor Owusu of the Popular Front Party (PFP) from Ashanti region chose Yakubu Tali from the Northern region as his running mate. William Ofori- Attah, the presidential candidate of the UNC from eastern region chose Mahama Iddrisu from the Upper Region as his running mate as indicated by Oquaye (1980). University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 33 According to Frempong (2009), the greatest lesson of the 1979 election was the level of uncertainty that surrounded the outcome of the first round of voting that did not produce any clear cut winner for the president. To him, the PFP went to the polls confident to win, because of some perceived advantage and association with the PP government and campaign on the successes of the Busia administration in terms of their ability to rebuilt the Ghanaian economy to better heights and the introduction of some austerity measures that brought back hope, resilience and confidence to the Ghanaian economy. Jeffries (1980) and Oquaye (1980) support the views held by Frempong (2009) in terms of the style and format adopted by the United Party (UP) tradition going into the 1979 elections. Jeffries (1980) and Oquaye (1980) indicates that, the split in the Danquah- Busia front into Popular Front Party (PFP) and United National Congress (UNC) limited their chances and this further narrowed their traditional support base regions of Asante, Eastern, western, central and Brong –Ahafo regions as compared to the 1969 elections. On the other hand, the PNP saw itself as an underdog Party that needed to rise beyond reproach and work harder and this they demonstrated by their superior organization skill and their ability to reach the down trodden in society and the far forgotten areas to seek for their political support and votes in the 1979 election. 2.4.4 ELECTIONS UNDER THE FOURTH REPUBLIC: 1992-2008 Under the fourth Republic, Ghana has witnessed six consecutive elections that have yielded progressive results to the admiration of many political watchers and the international community at large. These elections have added significantly to the enviable democratic credentials enjoyed by the country under the fourth republic. It is in this regard that, there exist some amount of literature concerning elections in Ghana under the fourth republic particularly the presidential and parliamentary elections. However, much of the works have University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 34 centred largely on party politics, institutional capacity of the electoral management team, the primary actors engaged in the entire electioneering processes, political parties and constituency surveys as conducted by the department of political science, university of Ghana in elections 2000 and 2004 on some selected constituencies on the choice of voters in such elections. The essence of this work is to ascertain to some extend, a comparative study of a pattern of voter behaviour exhibited by two constituencies, one urban (Bolgatanga) and one rural and deprived (Bongo) under the fourth republic in terms of parliamentary elections using elections 2000, 2004 and 2008 as the benchmark. Ghana’s triumphant return to representative democracy after eleven years of military rule under the Provisional National Defence Council’s (PNDC) regime was precipitated by several ‘push’ and ‘pull’ factors that are worth enumerating under this review. According to Boafo-Arthur (2007), under the PNDC regime, its latter days in office were compounded by weak economic base and other fiscal challenges that led to development partners and other donor agencies implicitly imposing economic and political conditions on the country. The PNDC administration had no option but to succumb to such demands of liberalization and democratization in other to receive favour and financial assistance from the donor partners and other Bretton Wood institutions that pushed for such reforms. The pressures that were brought to bear on the PNDC government by both external actors and internal actors necessitated the steps taken by the PNDC to implement these political and economic reforms that eventual brought the country to organize the 1992 general elections. Aside these pull and push factors enumerated above, it is also my considered opinion that, the PNDC government was losing popularity and cloud after eleven years of political rule and hence they needed a different way or mode in which they could reaffirm and assert their political and constitutional legitimacy to govern. This could only be done through the University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 35 organization of elections in which they were active participants to affirm their legitimacy to rule in Ghana. These arguments raised above, are further supported by the admission of Boafo-Arthur (2007) that, the collation of views and suggestions on the democratic path to chart by the National Commission for Democracy (NCD), the inauguration of a 260 member consultative Assembly, the setting up of an Interim Electoral Commission (INEC) and the holding of District Assembly Elections were all positive indicators geared towards charting a path of democracy through the 1992 general elections. According to Agyeman-Duah (2008), the 1992 elections suffered from what He describes as ‘transition syndrome’ in that, it witnessed some funding and founding challenges as it was the first time after eleven years that the country was organizing another elections. Furthermore, the presidential elections were held separately from the parliamentary elections with the former held on 3 rd November, 1992 whiles the latter was held on 28 th December, 1992.The politics surrounding the 1992 elections had interesting permutations and the creation of political alliances is of relevance to this study and the literature review at large. As indicated by Agyeman-Duah (2008), one interesting pairing from the 1992 elections were claims by the opposition parties over frustrations and setbacks in the legal framework that was been operational under the period over review. The oppressive, strict and cumbersome nature of the political system as alluded to by the opposition parties worked to the disadvantage of many of the smaller parties prior to the 1992 general elections because they could not meet all the necessary requirements needed to compete in the elections. This point is further stressed by Oquaye (2004) when He argues that, the legal framework allowed a registered political party sixty days to meet the requirements needed to satisfy the Interim National Electoral Commission (INEC) of its existence in all the constituencies, show University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 36 evidence that, party officers have been duly elected, the location of party headquarter, regional and district offices and also to declare their assets, income and expenditure account and produce their audited accounts. All these cumbersome and laborious processes and procedures before the INEC could certify a party worked massively to the disadvantage of the smaller parties who could not meet such requirements. However, to say that the incumbent party gained an advantage in terms of the requirements given by the INEC will be to belittle the point. All the parties were expected to go through a similar exercise to meet the requirements of the INEC and there could not be an undue advantage on the part of any party to short chain the system nor the process. Perhaps, one could say, being a party in government, there is the possibility of having some amount of resources for speedy mobilization of party structures to meet deadlines compared to other parties that had little or no resources at all to mobilize and also to participate in the elections. Added to these distressing challenges that the transition elections of 1992 faced were also issues relating to an over bloated and outdated voter register as indicated by Lyons (1999:159). He argues that, a voters’ register whose revision was not considered because of time constraints or financial difficulties or interplay of the two was a recipe for further mistrust of the outcome of the elections or a failure of the system itself and its actors. To buttress the point made by Lyons (1999) and Saaka (1997) where they argues that, in many African Elections, the ruling party employs deliberate policy that are meant to weaken the opposition parties either covertly or overtly so that they would have a bigger advantage. The resultant effect of such tactics is that, there is the tendency for the ruling class to exploit the politics of patronage, incumbency abuse and other brutalities against political opponents that could end up marring the beauty and the credibility of the electoral outcomes as depicted by the 1992 general elections where the opposition parties were not satisfied with the declaration of the final election results in favour of the NDC. University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 37 As Frempong (2012) puts it, learning from the bitter experience of the 1979 elections and what a divided front can do to them in their chances of electoral victory in an elections, the Danquah-Busia tradition in the 1992 elections stayed focus and united under one party called the New Patriotic Party (NPP) led by Albert Adu Boahen as its presidential candidate to contest the 1992 presidential elections. In an attempt to analyze the 1992 elections, Kumi (1992) argues that, the four opposition presidential candidates had poor showing in the distribution of the electoral results because they were disadvantaged in terms of financial constraints, logistical constraints and the short period within which they had to organize, campaign and to be able to make an impact in the election was certainly an arduous task. Added to these were the blatant abuse of incumbency, intimidation and the brutal show of power by the security forces sympathetic to the NDC all worked to the disadvantage of the opposition parties. While admitting that, there were excesses in terms of abuse of power and incumbency and intimidation aimed at crippling the opposition parties, these opposition parties, particularly the three ‘Nkrumahist’s Parties could have fared well if they were united as one party and presented a formidable presidential candidate coupled with a better organizational capacity, perhaps the results could have been different. The lack of unity among the Nkrumah’s front has further led to the disintegration and fragmentation of the old folks of the CPP that has given room for the NDC and NPP to be the resultant beneficiaries. This problem still persists despite efforts aimed at bringing the entire Nkrumah’s factions together. Another interesting pattern that developed following the 1992 presidential election results was the rejuvenation of the old rivalry of Ewe-Ashanti lines and this was clearly shown by the result obtained by the two regions (Ashanti and Volta regions). University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 38 As cited by Frempong (2012:50), ‘‘the declaration of the result triggered a spate of post election violence, the detonation of four bombs in different parts of Accra by a group called the Alliance for Democratic forces (ADF), the burning to death of the NDC western regional chairman, rioting by supporters of the main opposition NPP in many large cities including Kumasi’’ The four defeated political parties in the presidential election made fresh demand for more electoral reforms and a revision of the voter registration but the parties could not come to terms with an agreement as cited by Oquaye (2001). The opposition parties sensing fear of more embarrassing defeat as indicated by Frempong (2007 b: 136) if these electoral reforms were not looked into, boycotted the parliamentary elections of 1992 and chronicled their grievances of electoral infractions and irregularities in a book called the ‘‘The Stolen Verdict’’. As a result of the boycott, the NDC, NCP and the EGLE party were the only parties that contested the parliamentary elections in which Frempong (2012) describes as ‘‘family contest’’. The NDC presented 189 candidates and won 189 seats, the NCP won 8 seats EGLE had one seat and two independent candidates also won their seats. According to Jeffries (1998) there is little dispute about the 1996 elections because they were managed and conducted fairly with some degree of efficiency and impartiality as exhibited by the electoral commission (E.C) compared to the founding 1992 elections organized by INEC. To Ayee (1998), the 1996 elections were an integral part of Ghana’s democratic development and a path at democratic consolidation in the coming years. The success of the 1996 elections was partly attributable to the consensus building mechanism and electoral reforms introduced by the E.C with the involvement of the political parties. This brought more confidence into the electoral system. As Frempong (2012) recalls, the introduction of the intra-party advisory committee (IPAC) brought practical value and dialogue among political parties on the way forward in terms of how to improve upon subsequent elections University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 39 and this has been further amplified by Ayee (1998:536) in his assessment of the important role played by major political actors to build consensus and to accept the final results. As reminiscence of electoral politics, the Great Alliance (GA) led by the NPP and its presidential candidate J.A Kuffour coordinated their electoral campaigns on the theme ‘‘Charge and Development” in which they highlighted several challenges relating to governance, the state of the economy, security, conflicts, poverty and underdevelopment as a total failure of government to deal with these difficulties or the lack of capacity and political will to solve such problems. The NPP promised a robust economy that will alleviate the suffering of many Ghanaian under the NDC’s regime, bring more economic opportunities, create more jobs, equity, fairness, poverty reduction and increased accelerated growth of the economy. They also raised issues of economic mismanagement and incompetence on the part of the ruling government as part of their campaign issues. A cursory look at the trend of the 1992 and the 1996 elections shows a similar pattern of regionalized voting behaviour. Just as in the 1992 election, the NDC won in nine regions except for the Ashanti region. In the 1996 election, the NDC again won in all nine regions except Ashanti region. The question to many political scientists would be what explains this system of voting pattern and what reasons informs such voting decisions by the voters. The reviewed literature above on the 1996 elections points to two significant issues that are worth noting. One is that, when the system in which the political actors operate is considered by the actors as good, transparent and accountable, it does not matter the outcome of the results, they are bond to respect it because of the confidence and trust in the process and its reliability. It was therefore not surprising that, at this time the opposition parties did not hit the streets, throw bombs or question the credibility of the electoral outcome. They conceded University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 40 defeat graciously and congratulated the victor and that was remarkable. The victor (Rawling) also accepted the results, praised his fellow contestants and celebrated with magnanimity. According to Ayee (2001) for the third time under the fourth republic, Ghanaians went to the polls to elect an executive Head of state and 200 Members of parliament on 7 th December, 2000. Under this election, Ghana’s democratic credentials were put to test, a test as to whether Ghana would be able to have a smooth political transition and to consolidate its democratic gains made over the years or not. It was also an election that will bring to an end, the lingering questions in the minds of many Ghanaians as to whether Rawlings will hand over power after nineteen years to a democratically elected government when his tenure expires. If yes, will it be to his political party the NDC or to an opposition party? To many political scientists including the likes of Ayee (2000), Gyimah-Boadi (2001), Agyeman-Duah (2000), Boafo-Arthur (2004) and Oquaye (2005), the 2000 elections were very historic and remarkable and arguably the most important elections since independence in 1957. Reasons cited by Ayee (2001) were to the effect that, the elections were to mark the end of the Rawlings era and usher in a new regime after almost two decades of Rawlings’ leadership. It was also to test the viability or otherwise of Ghana’s 1992 constitution that had existed for nearly a decade. Much commentary from the 2000 elections reiterates the fact that the NDC was a divided house going into the election. Amidst issues of lack of internal democracy, dictatorship from the party founder (Rawlings), the disqualification of some parliamentary candidates and the general dissatisfaction of some party stalwarts were issues that could not be swept under the carpet. As indicated by Agyeman-Duah (2000) and Ayee (2001), the dissatisfaction of the NDC party members especially the likes of Obed Asamoah, Goosie Tandoh and Iddrisu Mahama among others following the ‘Swedru Declaration’ of Vice president J.E.A Mills as the next University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 41 successor to Rawlings to lead the NDC did not go down well with some NDC faithful who had been loyal to the party since the PNDC era and felt it was now time for them to succeed president Rawlings and lead the NDC. The damaging effect of such pronouncement was that, it led to the formation of the National Reform Party (NRP) led by Goosie Tandoh, a splinter group of the NDC which called for internal reforms in the party as indicated by Frempong (2008). These internal divisions within NDC were not very much helpful to their agenda of political victory in the 2000 general elections. The NDC was not the only party that had a splinter group, the United Ghana Movement (UGM) was a splinter group from the NPP led by Dr. Charles Wireko-Brobby that also contested the 2000 elections. Studies conducted by the department of political science, university of Ghana on the 2000 elections