Nature Food | Volume 4 | December 2023 | 1090–1110 1090

nature food

Analysis https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-023-00885-9

The state of food systems worldwide in the 
countdown to 2030

Kate R. Schneider    1 , Jessica Fanzo    2 , Lawrence Haddad3, 
Mario Herrero    4,5, Jose Rosero Moncayo6, Anna Herforth    7, 
Roseline Remans    8,9, Alejandro Guarin    10, Danielle Resnick    11, 
Namukolo Covic    12,13, Christophe Béné    9,14, Andrea Cattaneo    6, 
Nancy Aburto6, Ramya Ambikapathi4,5, Destan Aytekin15, Simon Barquera    16, 
Jane Battersby17, Ty Beal    18, Paulina Bizzoto Molina19, Carlo Cafiero    6, 
Christine Campeau20, Patrick Caron    21,22,23, Piero Conforti6, Kerstin Damerau4,5, 
Michael Di Girolamo1, Fabrice DeClerck9,24, Deviana Dewi    1, Ismahane Elouafi13,  
Carola Fabi6, Pat Foley25, Tyler J. Frazier    26, Jessica Gephart    27, 
Christopher Golden    7, Carlos Gonzalez Fischer    4,5, Sheryl Hendriks28, 
Maddalena Honorati29, Jikun Huang30, Gina Kennedy9, Amos Laar    31, 
Rattan Lal    32, Preetmoninder Lidder6, Brent Loken    33, Quinn Marshall11, 
Yuta J. Masuda    34, Rebecca McLaren18, Lais Miachon    2, Hernán Muñoz    6,35, 
Stella Nordhagen    3, Naina Qayyum36, Michaela Saisana37, Diana Suhardiman38,39,  
U. Rashid Sumaila    40, Maximo Torero Cullen6, Francesco N. Tubiello    6, 
Jose-Luis Vivero-Pol    41, Patrick Webb    36 & Keith Wiebe    11

This Analysis presents a recently developed food system indicator framework 
and holistic monitoring architecture to track food system transformation 
towards global development, health and sustainability goals. Five themes are 
considered: (1) diets, nutrition and health; (2) environment, natural resources 
and production; (3) livelihoods, poverty and equity; (4) governance; and 
(5) resilience. Each theme is divided into three to five indicator domains, 
and indicators were selected to reflect each domain through a consultative 
process. In total, 50 indicators were selected, with at least one indicator 
available for every domain. Harmonized data of these 50 indicators provide a 
baseline assessment of the world’s food systems. We show that every country 
can claim positive outcomes in some parts of food systems, but none are 
among the highest ranked across all domains. Furthermore, some indicators 
are independent of national income, and each highlights a specific aspiration 
for healthy, sustainable and just food systems. The Food Systems Countdown 
Initiative will track food systems annually to 2030, amending the framework 
as new indicators or better data emerge.

Food systems fundamentally shape lives, well-being and human and 
planetary health, and they are central to tackling some of the most 
pressing global challenges of our time1. The United Nations (UN) held its 
first-ever Food Systems Summit (UNFSS) in 2021, which demonstrated 

the interconnectedness of food systems with the Sustainable Devel-
opment Goals (SDGs) and provided a space for countries to develop 
national pathways towards food system transformation. Food systems 
also featured prominently at the 26th and 27th UN Climate Change 

Received: 19 July 2023

Accepted: 2 November 2023

Published online: 19 December 2023

 Check for updates

A full list of affiliations appears at the end of the paper.  e-mail: kschne29@jhu.edu; j.fanzo@columbia.edu

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Analysis https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-023-00885-9

advisors, private sector actors and civil society actors to monitor 
food systems worldwide.

Results
Indicator selection
We employed a multi-stage, multi-stakeholder process to select the 
suite of indicators for food systems monitoring. In the first stage, we 
developed a long list of all possible indicators. This list was screened 
for feasibility, coverage and transparency (defined in Extended Data 
Table 2). The result was a shorter list of candidate indicators to be evalu-
ated against the criteria of relevance, high quality, interpretability and 
usefulness (the operational definitions are provided in Extended Data 
Table 2). In stage two, a survey was fielded to all authors and additional 
experts to quantitatively score the indicators against the criteria and 
identify any alternative indicators or data sources and indicator gaps. 
Qualitative consultations were held with over 500 policy stakehold-
ers across the world focused on gathering input on usefulness and 
gaps. In the final stage, we examined the indicator scores, additional 
suggestions to address gaps, and gaps that could not be filled to iden-
tify the list of 50 indicators presented in this baseline. Figure 1 pre-
sents the flow of indicators through the selection process, and full 
reports of the survey results and policy consultations are provided in  
Supplementary Appendix 3.

Table 1 presents the indicators and their global distributions, while 
Extended Data Table 1 contains the definitions, sources, rationale for 
inclusion, coverage and notable limitations. Many indicators have long 
time series available, while those without are expected to be collected 
or computed globally going forward and therefore are applicable for 
monitoring. Given our objective to work with existing data, there are 
limitations to these indicators, with several serving as imperfect prox-
ies given data availability to be replaced as improved data and indica-
tors are available (further details are given in Extended Data Table 1).

Diets, nutrition and health. Supporting human health is one of 
the three fundamental goals of food systems. The three indicator 
domains in this theme are food environments (the interface between 
individuals and the food system), food security and diet quality. One 
important aspect of food environments is the availability of different 
kinds of foods, reflected by the availability of fruits and vegetables 
and per capita sales of ultra-processed17 foods. Access to sufficient, 
safe, nutritious food and clean water is a core piece of food systems 
monitoring. Access to food is in part determined by the cost of a 
healthy diet—that is, the cost of purchasing the least expensive locally 
available foods to meet requirements for energy and food-based 
dietary guidelines. The affordability of that diet (cost relative to 
income) is one of three food security indicators alongside the preva-
lence of undernourishment and the percentage of the population 
experiencing moderate or severe food insecurity. Access to clean 
water is essential for avoiding food-borne and water-borne illnesses. 
No adequate available indicators exist for food safety, a priority data 
gap. Diet quality indicators capture what individuals actually eat, and 
they reflect diversity, adequacy and moderation. Indicators include 
minimum dietary diversity for women and children, consumption of 
the five food groups typically recommended for daily consumption 
in food-based dietary guidelines (fruits; vegetables; pulses, nuts or 
seeds; animal-source foods; and starchy staples), dietary factors 
that either protect against or increase risk for non-communicable 
diseases, and unhealthy dietary practices over the life cycle, aligned 
with international guidance18–20.

Environment, food production and natural resources. Food systems 
are a major contributor to environmental degradation, but they can 
also protect and restore environmental outcomes if managed appropri-
ately. The six domains of environmental indicators address the multiple 
environmental impacts of food systems: greenhouse gas emissions, 

Conference2 and in the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Frame-
work targets3. This context offers growing momentum to influence 
public policy, private sector and civil society actions to transform food 
systems from their current unsustainable and inequitable trajecto-
ries to a healthier, more equitable, sustainable and resilient future4–6. 
Rapidly progressing towards the 2030 expiration of the SDGs and 
amid mounting social, political, health and ecological challenges, 
transforming food systems to support healthy diets in sustainable, 
resilient, just and equitable ways is more urgent than ever1,7,8. Yet while 
the contributions of food systems to global goals are recognized and 
the clear need for monitoring has been articulated9, decision-makers 
across sectors lack a means to assess their food systems, guide action 
or evaluate progress. Furthermore, without monitoring, bright spots 
and success stories go unrecognized when they can offer important 
lessons for other places.

In 2021, the Food Systems Countdown to 2030 Initiative (FSCI) 
emerged from the UNFSS as an interdisciplinary collaboration of 
dozens of scientists with the ambition to fill this monitoring gap. 
The authors first published the conceptual foundation in which they 
described the goal of food system transformation as “a future where all 
people have access to healthy diets, produced in sustainable, resilient 
ways that restore nature and deliver just and equitable livelihoods”1. 
They developed a monitoring architecture comprising five thematic 
areas, each with three to five indicator domains1. Building on the archi-
tecture, this paper presents the indicator selection process and the 
resulting indicator framework and global food systems baseline. To 
select indicators that capture all elements of the architecture, we sur-
veyed additional scientific experts and conducted consultations with 
hundreds of policy stakeholders in a multi-stage indicator selection 
process. The process was restricted to existing indicators—or feasible 
modifications thereof—and aimed to align with other indicator frame-
works, such as the SDGs, where sensible.

The consultative process selected 50 indicators and identified 
several data gaps, of which many are expected to be fillable in the near 
term (before 2030). We applied the 50-indicator framework to provide 
a harmonized baseline dataset as an initial descriptive analysis of the 
world’s food systems, the starting point to track change and an essential 
first step in a global food systems research agenda. For the next seven 
years (2023–2030), the FSCI will publish annual updates, incorporate 
new indicators to fill the remaining gaps and carry out further analyses. 
Specifically, in the next two years, publications will concentrate on 
understanding country-level performance and the dynamic interac-
tions across indicators, domains and themes.

The fundamental contributions of this paper are (1) an appli-
cation of the recently developed global architecture to monitor 
food systems1, (2) the selection of a set of indicators legitimated 
through consultative process, (3) the identification of the most criti-
cal data and information gaps for global food systems monitoring 
and (4) a harmonized baseline dataset to track food systems and their 
changes. These contributions are relevant to the government offi-
cials responsible for developing food system transformation path-
ways coming out of the UNFSS, who have expressed clear demand for 
guidance on indicators10–13. African countries are working to adapt 
the Comprehensive African Agricultural Development Programme 
to incorporate a broader food systems perspective, also requiring 
additional indicators for the Biennial Review process14,15. The intent 
is not to create another set of indicators that countries have to track 
but rather to offer a menu that can be useful for the food system 
transformation goals that countries are establishing, providing a 
mechanism for accountability to stated commitments where exist-
ing suites of indicators (for example, SDGs) are insufficient for food 
systems (Supplementary Fig. 1.1 contains the theory of transforma-
tion)16. Basing the framework on feasibility, existing indicators and 
available data lends further practicality and usefulness to leaders 
acting now. At the global level, the framework enables policymakers, 

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land, biosphere integrity, water, pollution (conceptually including 
nutrient runoff, chemical exposure and solid waste) and agricultural 
production, which interacts with all other domains.

Indicators of greenhouse gas emissions include total emissions 
(from production through consumption and waste disposal) and emis-
sions intensities (emissions per unit of primary product) of major 
foods. Land use change is measured by cropland expansion and water 
use, expressed by how much agricultural water withdrawals place 
pressure on renewable freshwater resources. Overuse of pesticides 
and sustainable nitrogen management capture pollution; additional 
indicators of solid waste and chemical pollution attributable to food 
systems are wanting. Functional integrity—the capacity for biodiversity 
to support sustainable food production and other ecosystem ser-
vices—and the integrity of fishery stocks capture biosphere integrity. 
Yields interact with all other domains; increases are directly tied to the 
observed declining trends in emissions intensities.

Livelihoods, poverty and equity. Poverty is most prevalent in rural 
areas where people earn substantial income shares from agriculture 
(including marginalized groups such as Indigenous Peoples and 
female-headed households)21–23. Food systems provide employment 
for 1.23 billion people and (including household members) support 
over 3.83 billion livelihoods, in all stages of the value chain across rural 
and urban areas24. Four indicator domains capture their well-being: 
income and poverty, employment, social protection and rights. Com-
pared with other themes, the available data are more limited due in 
large part to lack of disaggregation to distinguish food system liveli-
hoods from others.

Lacking a rural poverty indicator with sufficient coverage, the 
share of gross domestic product (GDP) from agriculture provides a 
proxy for a country’s overall level of development25. Declining GDP from 
agriculture and fewer people working in agriculture are hallmarks of the 
structural transformation process that is integral to poverty reduction 
and rural transformation25. Unemployment and underemployment 
capture employment, though not ‘decent’ work26. Though lacking 
sectoral disaggregation, the rural rates proxy the status of agricultural 
and farm-related labour markets27. Social protection systems increase 
access to food quantity and quality, reduce producers’ risk and incen-
tivize productive investment28,29. Social protection programmes may 

be particularly impactful in breaking the cycle of poverty for small-scale 
food producers and informal workers who face chronic food insecurity 
and vulnerability to shocks29. Finally, among the many rights and issues 
of justice related to livelihoods, the indicators currently available cap-
ture women’s access to land and the specific human rights violation of 
child labour, of which an estimated 70% occurs in agriculture30.

Governance. Governance is foundational for inclusive food system 
transformation, encompassing not only the political commitment 
to adopt supportive policies but also promoting participatory pro-
cesses and accountability to ensure that policies have legitimacy and 
reach the intended target group. Furthermore, governance involves 
strengthening capacities for implementation across sectors to ensure 
that aspirational goals are technically feasible. Three indicator domains 
collectively capture these dimensions of governance: shared vision 
and strategic planning, effective implementation and accountabil-
ity. There are few indicators of governance specific to food systems, 
but broad indices of the governance landscape may have substantial 
impacts on food system choices and outcomes. Further research is 
especially needed in this area to develop more direct indicators of food  
system governance.

Indicators of shared vision and strategic planning include one 
broad indicator beyond food systems and three others reflecting inten-
tionality by governments to pursue food systems objectives. The Civil 
Society Participation Index captures whether civil society organiza-
tions (for example, non-governmental organizations, unions and social 
movements) have opportunities to convey their views to policymakers. 
Food-system-specific indicators are the presence of a legal recognition 
of the right to food, the existence of a food system transformation 
pathway and the share of the urban population living in cities that have 
signed on to the Milan Urban Food Policy Pact (MUFPP). The MUFPP is 
an innovative policy mechanism that has rapidly become the leading 
international tool for urban food policy governance (37 recommended 
actions and specific indicators) as well as a platform for cooperation, 
organizing and political influence31.

Effective implementation is also measured by a combination 
of indicators that are contextual (broader than the food system but 
establish the governance regime within which food system actors can 
operate) and specific to food systems. The government effectiveness 

Indicators 
included in 
the final list

(n = 50)

Indicators screened
for inclusion in
consultations

(n = 243)

Identification

Initially 
considered 
indicators 
(n = 245)

Indicators 
excluded 
following

expert and 
stakeholder 

consultations 
(n = 60)

Screening Final selection

Indicators excluded
prior to expert and 

stakeholder 
consultations 

(n = 145)

Indicators 
considered during 

consultations 
(n = 98)

Indicators added at
the recommendation
of experts and policy 

stakeholders 
(n = 12)

Consultation

Indicators excluded
prior to screening 

for lack of data 
(n = 2)

Fig. 1 | Multi-stage indicator selection process. The process of indicator selection and the number of indicators included and excluded at each stage. The excluded 
indicators are listed in Supplementary Appendix 2.

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Nature Food | Volume 4 | December 2023 | 1090–1110 1093

Analysis https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-023-00885-9

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Nature Food | Volume 4 | December 2023 | 1090–1110 1094

Analysis https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-023-00885-9

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te
d 

by

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ie

t q
ua

lit
y

8
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D
D

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in
im

um
 

di
et

ar
y 

di
ve

rs
ity

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r 

w
om

en

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rc

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ge
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f 
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w

om
en

 15
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Ta
nz

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ia

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ur

ki
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so
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ie
rr

a 
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on
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di
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en

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et

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am

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az

ak
hs

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liv
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aj

ik
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ta
n,

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hi

na
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65

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20

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Po

pu
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n

9
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D
D

 (I
YC

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di

ve
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ts

 
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g 

ch
ild

re
n

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rc

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f 
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s

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ui

ne
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ss

au
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ria
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iri
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ti,
 

Et
hi

op
ia

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on

go

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rb

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er
u,

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ri 

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nk

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os

ta
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ic
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l S

al
va

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31
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15
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Po
pu

la
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n

10
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l-5
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on
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m
pt

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ll 
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gr
ou

ps

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rc

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du
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pu

la
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ha

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ro

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ui

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bl

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ul

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rc
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an
za

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ig
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en
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ra

el
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aj
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hi

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re

n 
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m
on

th
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rc

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f 
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23
 m

on
th

s

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hi

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ui
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ss
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da
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 Y
em

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ui

ne
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ia
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ru
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ay
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ru

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ur

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Po
pu

la
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n

13
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C
D

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ct

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or

e 
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oi
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)
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er
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ne
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ig

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ab

on
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a 

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ol

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hi

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7
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pu
la

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is

k
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ou
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hi
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at

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ut

h 
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7

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la
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n

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ga
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d 
so

ft 
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in
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ns

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rc

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po
pu

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sr

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i L

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en
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ng
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bl

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nd

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lo

ba
l b

as
el

in
ea  d

is
tr

ib
ut

io
ns

http://www.nature.com/natfood


Nature Food | Volume 4 | December 2023 | 1090–1110 1095

Analysis https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-023-00885-9

D
om

ai
n

In
di

ca
to

r
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ni
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tr

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io
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ed

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te

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m

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vi

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ra
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re

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as

 
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kt
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at

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do

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ac
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nw
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17
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re
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kg
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au
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uy
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rd

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jib

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ai
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nc
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re

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ui
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au
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te
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bl

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st

 a
nd

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lo

ba
l b

as
el

in
ea  d

is
tr

ib
ut

io
ns

http://www.nature.com/natfood


Nature Food | Volume 4 | December 2023 | 1090–1110 1096

Analysis https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-023-00885-9

D
om

ai
n

In
di

ca
to

r
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ni
t

W
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te

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m

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ei

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te

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te
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ilk
kg

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er

 a
ni

m
al

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pu

a 
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ui

ne
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d’

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ki

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ha

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au
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ra

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SA

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3
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ha

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ith
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pe

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ru
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st

 a
nd

 g
lo

ba
l b

as
el

in
ea  d

is
tr

ib
ut

io
ns

http://www.nature.com/natfood


Nature Food | Volume 4 | December 2023 | 1090–1110 1097

Analysis https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-023-00885-9

D
om

ai
n

In
di

ca
to

r
U

ni
t

W
or

st
 ra

nk
in

gb
Be

st
 ra

nk
in

gb
D

is
tr

ib
ut

io
nc

M
ed

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n

W
ei

gh
te

d 
m

ea
n

W
ei

gh
te

d 
s.

d.
W

ei
gh

te
d 

by

Li
ve

lih
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ds
, p

ov
er

ty
 a

nd
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qu
ity

Po
ve

rt
y 

an
d 

in
co

m
e

25
Sh

ar
e 

of
 

ag
ric

ul
tu

re
 in

 G
D

P
Pe

rc
en

ta
ge

 o
f 

G
D

P
Si

er
ra

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eo

ne
, 

Li
be

ria
, N

ig
er

, M
al

i, 
Et

hi
op

ia

Sa
n 

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ar

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o,

 S
in

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po

re
, 

Li
ec

ht
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ei

n,
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ux
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ur

g,
 

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at

ar

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4.

4
5.

2
G

D
P

Em
pl

oy
m

en
t

26
Un

em
pl

oy
m

en
t, 

ru
ra

l
Pe

rc
en

ta
ge

 o
f 

w
or

ki
ng

-a
ge

 
po

pu
la

tio
n

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ut

h 
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ric
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so
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o,
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sw
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i, 

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jib

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ot

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a

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at

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am

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an

da
, S

ol
om

on
 Is

la
nd

s
4.

9
5.

7
4.

1
Po

pu
la

tio
n

27
Un

de
re

m
pl

oy
m

en
t 

ra
te

, r
ur

al
Pe

rc
en

ta
ge

 o
f 

w
or

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po

pu
la

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n

Et
hi

op
ia

, 
H

on
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ra
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N

ic
ar

ag
ua

, N
ig

er
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liz
e

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yp

t, 
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rd
an

, T
im

or
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te

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ne
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l, 
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er
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ne
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4
7.3

8.
2

Po
pu

la
tio

n

So
ci

al
 p

ro
te

ct
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n

28
So

ci
al

 p
ro

te
ct

io
n 

co
ve

ra
ge

Pe
rc

en
ta

ge
 o

f 
po

pu
la

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n

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ut

an
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ga
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ng

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al
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lo

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on

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In
di

a,
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on
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hi
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, 
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un
ga

ry
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lo
va

ki
a

40
.8

55
.8

28
.0

Po
pu

la
tio

n

29
So

ci
al

 p
ro

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n 

ad
eq

ua
cy

Pe
rc

en
ta

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of
 w

el
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re
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ne
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ds

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pu

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ew
 

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ui

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ud

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, 

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ut

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da
n,

 
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er
ra

 L
eo

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er

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ija

n

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on

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, P

ol
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er
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m

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ia

, B
el

ar
us

23
.3

21
.0

15
.1

Po
pu

la
tio

n

Ri
gh

ts

30
Pe

rc
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ta
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 o
f 

ch
ild

re
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5–
17

 
en

ga
ge

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in

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hi

ld
 

la
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ch

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(s
ex

 sp
ec

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is
 

pe
rc

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of
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se
x)

Et
hi

op
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, B
ur

ki
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, C

am
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ha
d

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rk

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en

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rin
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an
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ri 
La

nk
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ili
pp

in
es

, B
ar

ba
do

s

9.
0

9.
4

9.
6

Po
pu

la
tio

n

31
Fe

m
al

e 
sh

ar
e 

of
 

la
nd

ho
ld

in
gs

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rc

en
ta

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f 
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nd
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of

 
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op

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em

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pu

bl
ic

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ng
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sh

, M
al

i, 
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ji,
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gy
pt

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ab

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rd
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ith

ua
ni

a,
 

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tv

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ov

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ar

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pl
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32
C

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so
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pa
rt

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ip

at
io

n 
in

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x

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de

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N

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ub

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yr
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ab
 

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at
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er
m

an
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or

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in

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7

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2

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pu

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bl

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1 (

co
nt

in
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d)
 | I

nd
ic

at
or

 li
st

 a
nd

 g
lo

ba
l b

as
el

in
ea  d

is
tr

ib
ut

io
ns

http://www.nature.com/natfood


Nature Food | Volume 4 | December 2023 | 1090–1110 1098

Analysis https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-023-00885-9

D
om

ai
n

In
di

ca
to

r
U

ni
t

W
or

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 ra

nk
in

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st
 ra

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ed

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ei

gh
te

d 
m

ea
n

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ei

gh
te

d 
s.

d.
W

ei
gh

te
d 

by

33
Pe

rc
en

ta
ge

 o
f 

ur
ba

n 
po

pu
la

tio
n 

liv
in

g 
in

 c
iti

es
 

si
gn

ed
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n 
to

 th
e 

M
U

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Pe
rc

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of
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rb
an

 
po

pu
la

tio
n

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gh

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is

ta
n,

 
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do
rr

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m

en
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, A
nt

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an

d 
Ba

rb
ud

a,
 

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er

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ija

n

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tv

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, M

on
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ru
, C

on
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0

7.2
10

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ba
n 

po
pu

la
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34
D

eg
re

e 
of

 le
ga

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re

co
gn

iti
on

 o
f t

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rig
ht

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, 
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ic

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pr
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at

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, o

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im

pl
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ob
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at

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0

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6
(U

nw
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gh
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35
Pr

es
en

ce
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f 
a 

na
tio

na
l 

fo
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an

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or

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at

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pa
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, n

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fe

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im

pl
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en
ta

tio
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36
G

ov
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nm
en

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ef

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s i

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x
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ut
h 

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da

n,
 

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m

en
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om
al

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ai

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ng

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nl

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or

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ay

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en

m
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k
−0

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0.

8
Po

pu
la

tio
n

37
In

te
rn

at
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na
l 

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ea

lth
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eg
ul

at
io

ns
 

St
at

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Pa

rt
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se

ss
m

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t r

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or

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(IH

R 
SP

AR
), 

fo
od

 
sa

fe
ty

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ap

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or

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en
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fr
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pu

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, C
ôt

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ol
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ta
n,

 
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liv
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ite

d 
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ab
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m
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st
ra

lia
, A

us
tr

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el
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hr

ai
n

80
.0

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.4

21
.6

Po
pu

la
tio

n

38
Pr

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f 
he

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fo
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ta

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na

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0
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Po

pu
la

tio
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39
V-

D
em

 
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ta
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lit
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de

x

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de

x
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itr
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re

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ab
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n,
 

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7

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3

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9

Po
pu

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n

Ta
bl

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1 (

co
nt

in
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d)
 | I

nd
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at
or

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st

 a
nd

 g
lo

ba
l b

as
el

in
ea  d

is
tr

ib
ut

io
ns

http://www.nature.com/natfood


Nature Food | Volume 4 | December 2023 | 1090–1110 1099

Analysis https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-023-00885-9

D
om

ai
n

In
di

ca
to

r
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ni
t

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or

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m

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s.

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W

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gh

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by

Ac
co

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lit

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40
O

pe
n 

Bu
dg

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de
x 

sc
or

e
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de
x

C
om

or
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, 
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to

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l G

ui
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a,
 

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ne

zu
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em
en

, 
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da
n

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eo

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ou

th
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fr
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ew
 

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al

an
d,

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w

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en

, M
ex

ic
o

46
.0

43
.1

21
.3

Po
pu

la
tio

n

41
G

ua
ra

nt
ee

s f
or

 
pu

bl
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cc

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s t

o 
in

fo
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at
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G

 
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)

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na

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1.0

0.
7

0.
5

Po
pu

la
tio

n

Re
si

lie
nc

e

Ex
po

su
re

 to
 

sh
oc

ks

42
Ra

tio
 o

f t
ot

al
 

da
m

ag
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f a

ll 
di

sa
st

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o 
G

D
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om

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nt

 
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nc
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t a
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e 

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re

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ha
m

as
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ga

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nd

 
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rb
ud

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gh

an
is

ta
n,

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ng

ol
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ba
ni

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ni
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d 
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ab
 

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ira

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s,

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rg

en
tin

a

0.
0

0.
3

0.
8

G
D

P

43
D

ie
ta

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ng
 

fle
xi

bi
lit

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in

de
x

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de

x
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om
or

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yc

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lle

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rla

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7

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7

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1

Po
pu

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tio

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Re
si

lie
nc

e 
ca

pa
ci

tie
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44
M

ob
ile

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el

lu
la

r 
su

bs
cr

ip
tio

ns
 (p

er
 

10
0 

pe
op

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)

N
um

be
r p

er
 

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0 

pe
op

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h 

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da

n,
 

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or

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da
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on

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8.

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.0

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45
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m

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pu

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ro

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fo

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46
Pr

op
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of
 

ag
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w
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Th

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a 

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st

 a
nd

 g
lo

ba
l b

as
el

in
ea  d

is
tr

ib
ut

io
ns

http://www.nature.com/natfood


Nature Food | Volume 4 | December 2023 | 1090–1110 1100

Analysis https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-023-00885-9

D
om

ai
n

In
di

ca
to

r
U

ni
t

W
or

st
 ra

nk
in

gb
Be

st
 ra

nk
in

gb
D

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tr

ib
ut

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nc

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ei

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te

d 
m

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d 
s.

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W

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lie
nc

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sp
on

se
s/

 
st

ra
te

gi
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48
C

op
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g 
st

ra
te

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in

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x

Pe
rc

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 o

f 
po

pu
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m

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s.

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se

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PP

P,
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; N

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on

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is
tr

ib
ut

io
ns

http://www.nature.com/natfood


Nature Food | Volume 4 | December 2023 | 1090–1110 1101

Analysis https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-023-00885-9

index reflects the quality of public services, civil service, policy formu-
lation, implementation and credibility. Public tracking of investments 
for food systems requires transparency over budgets and guarantees 
for public information access, reflected in the Open Budget Index 
score and guarantees for public access to information, as well as the 
overall Accountability Index, which encompasses the existence of 

mechanisms to keep officials responsive to the public (for example, 
checks and balances, elections and press freedoms). Specific to food 
systems, available data can monitor two policy tools for achieving 
healthy food systems: health-related food taxes and food safety capac-
ity (the number of specific mechanisms in place to detect and respond 
to food-borne disease and contamination).

D
iets, nutrition and health

Environm
ent, natural resources

and production
G

overnance
Livelihoods, poverty and equity

Resilience

Af
gh

an
is

ta
n

Al
ba

ni
a

Al
ge

ria
An

do
rr

a
An

go
la

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tig

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 a

nd
 B

ar
bu

da
Ar

ge
nt

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a

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m

en
ia

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st

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lia

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st

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Az

er
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as

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hr

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rb
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lg

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fr

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Fr

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 G

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(R
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a-

Bi
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G

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an

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H

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on

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H

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Ic

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In

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a

In
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Ira

n 
(Is

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 R

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Ira

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nd

Is
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Ja

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ai

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Ja

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Ka

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kh

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ba

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Li

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of

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ig
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ac

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w

ay
O

m
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ki

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la

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ew

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ra

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ru

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la
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lo

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la

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ai

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an

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ria

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ai

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Ar

ab
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ira

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ni

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d 

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ng

do
m

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f G

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at

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rit

ai
n 

an
d 

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or

th
er

n 
Ire

la
nd

U
ni

te
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Re
pu

bl
ic

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f T

an
za

ni
a

U
ni

te
d 

St
at

es
 o

f A
m

er
ic

a
U

ru
gu

ay
U

zb
ek

is
ta

n
Va

nu
at

u
Ve

ne
zu

el
a,

 B
ol

iv
ar

ia
n 

Re
pu

bl
ic

 o
f

Vi
et

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am

Ye
m

en
Za

m
bi

a
Zi

m
ba

bw
e

Zero fruits or vegetables, infant−child
Zero fruits or vegetables, adult

Vegetable availability
Ultra-processed foods value

Sugar-sweetened soft drink consumption
Prevalence of undernourishment

NCD-Risk
NCD-Protect

Min. dietary diversity, women
Min. dietary diversity, infant−child

Fruit availability
FIES

Cost of healthy diet
Cannot a�ord healthy diet (%)

All five food groups
Access to safe water

Yield, vegetables
Yield, milk
Yield, fruit

Yield, cereals
Yield, beef

Sustainable nitrogen management
Pesticide use

Functional integrity
Food system emissions

Fisheries health index
Emissions intensity, rice
Emissions intensity, milk

Emissions intensity, cereals (excluding rice)
Emissions intensity, beef

Cropland expansion (% change)
Agricultural water withdrawal

MUFPP
Right to food

Open Budget Index
Health-related food tax

Government e�ectiveness index
Food system pathway
Food safety capacity

Civil society participation
Accountability index

Access to information

Social protection coverage

Social protection adequacy

Rural unemployment

Rural underemployment

Female landholdings

Child labour

Agriculture in GDP

Social capital index

Reduced coping strategies

Mobile phones per 100 people

Min. species diversity

Genetic resources, plants

Genetic resources, animals

Dietary sourcing flexibility (kcal)

Damages to GDP

1 5 10 15 20 23

Number of years
with data

Fig. 2 | Data coverage, number of years per country–indicator, 2000–2021. 
Heat map illustrating the density of data points per country–indicator pairing, 
with the darkest cells illustrating more years of data between 2000 and 2021. 
Indicators with no data at all for that country are shown in white. The figure 
illustrates greater availability of data for food security and agricultural indicators 
and lesser availability for indicators of diet quality, livelihoods and resilience. 
Heat maps showing the indicator–country time series by region are available 
in Supplementary Figs. 1.3–1.11. The maximum country coverage is all UN 
member states, but coverage differs per indicator depending on data availability. 
Differences in indicator coverage largely drive the observed differences across 

countries. Specifically, the indicators with the most heterogeneous coverage 
are the six indicators of diet quality sourced from the Global Diet Quality Project 
(currently available for only 41 mostly low- and lower-middle-income countries); 
the livelihood indicators of employment, social protection, child labour and 
landholdings; and the resilience indicators of genetic resources and coping 
strategies (available for countries with a high prevalence of food insecurity). 
Looking across countries within each indicator, countries with the indicator 
typically have time series of similar durations. Yield and emissions intensity for 
additional products are provided in Supplementary Appendix 1 and the baseline 
dataset. FIES, Food Insecurity Experience Scale.

http://www.nature.com/natfood


Nature Food | Volume 4 | December 2023 | 1090–1110 1102

Analysis https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-023-00885-9

Resilience. We define food system resilience as “the ability of dif-
ferent individual and institutional food system actors to maintain, 
protect, or quickly recover the key functions of that system despite the 
impacts of disturbances”1. The COVID-19 pandemic and the conflict in 
Ukraine both demonstrated the imperative to better understand and 
strengthen the resilience of local and global food systems to numerous 
shocks and stressors—not just climate change. Assessing resilience 
requires a combination of indicators related to two domains: (1) the 
contextual elements of resilience (the level of exposure of the sys-
tem to adverse events and the capacities of that system to anticipate, 
absorb or adapt to those events) and (2) the short- and longer-term 
outcomes of resilience—generally measured through individual and 
system well-being, ideally considered at multiple scales32.

A range of indicators is necessary to capture these different com-
ponents of resilience and to better understand how to establish more 
efficient, inclusive and sustainable food systems in the face of increas-
ingly complex and intertwined shocks. The indicators of resilience 
therefore cover five domains: exposure to shocks, resilience capacities, 
agrodiversity and food diversity, short-term resilience responses and 
long-term outcomes.

Exposure to shocks depends on the intensity, nature and fre-
quency of shocks and stressors and can be proxied by the cumulative 
costs of those events relative to GDP. Resilience capacities are the differ-
ent elements that can be used to buffer and respond to adverse events. 
Those capacities take many forms. In food systems, the diversity and 
redundancy of food sources, national infrastructure (proxied by mobile 
phone coverage) and social capital are some of the key elements that 
constitute resilience capacities. Also critical to food system resilience 
is the level of biodiversity on which food production relies, captured by 
the number of plant and animal genetic resources conserved for use. 
Understanding how actors react and respond in the short term to the 
impact of shocks is also a foundational element of resilience analysis. 
This element can be measured using the coping strategies index, while 
longer-term outcomes of food system resilience can be captured by 
the ability of the system to maintain low price volatility and low food 
supply variability.

This resulting indicator framework partially overlaps with the 
SDGs, underscoring both the relevance of the overall development 
agenda for food system transformation and, conversely, the inad-
equacy (incompleteness) of the SDG framework for food systems 
monitoring16. Of the 240 SDG indicators, 81 are related to food sys-
tems and food system transformation. Only 11 are specific to food 
systems, and of those, only 5 meet the criteria for inclusion in the 
FSCI. The SDG indicators included are 2.1.1 (undernourishment), 
2.1.2 (food insecurity), 6.1.1 (safe drinking water), 16.10.2 (access to 
information) and 2.5.1 (conserved genetic resources). Three SDG 
indicators are expected to be added as soon as data become avail-
able, including 2.4.1 (sustainable agriculture) and 12.3.1 (food loss 
and waste indices). Similarly, 5.a.1 (women’s agricultural land own-
ership) will replace the current data source (which will no longer be 
updated), and 5.b.1 (mobile phone ownership) will replace the current 
indicator of phones per 100,000 people, as soon as there is sufficient 
country coverage. Supplementary Table 4.1 documents which SDG 
indicators are relevant to food systems, the subset of those that are 
included in the FSCI framework and an explanation for why the oth-
ers are not included.

Data gaps
Notable data gaps emerged through the indicator selection process. 
Several gaps cut across multiple themes such as the true cost of food, 
a cost that includes the externalities currently unaccounted for in 
the market price such as diet-related disease, pollution and natural 
resource degradation33. Similarly lacking are data on food loss and 
waste at the country level, and we await country-level data of sufficient 
quality for SDG 12.3.1 (food waste and food loss indices).

In the realm of diets, nutrition and health, food safety is an area 
lacking indicators (and data), though food safety capacity is captured 
in governance. Under environment, natural resources and production, 
a gap regarding sustainable agriculture will be filled with SDG 2.4.1 
(agricultural area under sustainable management practices) when 
data for the recently developed indicator are available34. Other gaps 
include food production and supply indicators inclusive of aquatic 
and wild foods. Furthermore, environmental indicators predominantly 
relate to production and largely exclude loss and waste as well as pol-
lution related to processes further down the value chain (for example, 
solid waste and material pollution from packaging35). Many gaps exist 
with respect to livelihoods, including the economic value of food sys-
tems, the magnitude and composition of populations working in food 
systems and their vulnerabilities, and productivity in the sector (for 
example, value-added as a share of GDP and per worker). In addition, 
indicators of livelihoods that can capture the welfare of food system 
workers beyond agriculture—especially measures of decent work, gen-
der equity and violations of human rights in food systems—are needed. 
With respect to food system governance, data gaps include policy 
coherence (alignment across policy areas) for food system transfor-
mation and budgetary allocations to food systems. These gaps require 
substantial country-level data inputs to fill, but new machine learning 
methods may provide opportunities to develop estimates that can be 
added to the indicator suite in the near term. Additional indicators of 
governance and resilience specific to food systems are also lacking.

Gaps also pertain to the country and time series coverage of indica-
tors. Figure 2 presents a data coverage heat map from 2000 forward 
showing that the indicators with the greatest country coverage and 
the longest time series are those associated with agricultural devel-
opment such as yields and the share of agriculture in GDP. For other 
indicators—adult diet quality, biodiversity, and agrodiversity and 
food diversity—the country and year coverage remain sparse. Country 
coverage of diet quality indicators is expected to increase rapidly, but 
there are no adult diet quality data for any countries in Oceania, and 
there are data for only one country in the Caribbean—a priority gap, 
given the high burden of diet-related disease in these regions18,36,37. 
Environmental indicators have the greatest coverage, partly because 
so many derive from FAOSTAT indicators with a long history of collec-
tion38. Governance indicators also have good country coverage, but 
one third of the indicators in this theme are newly developed (right 
to food, presence of a food system pathway and urban population 
signed on to the MUFPP). Livelihood and resilience indicators have 
poorer geographic coverage across most regions, especially Oceania 
and northern Africa and western Asia.

By region (Supplementary Figs. 1.3–1.11), Oceania has the greatest 
scarcity in data overall, with very few diet quality indicators collected 
in that region and only for children in 4 of the 14 countries. Dietary data 
are collected in fewer countries of North America and Europe, northern 
Africa and western Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean than in 
other regions. Countries with the fewest indicator and year observa-
tions are small island nations (for example, Caribbean and Pacific 
islands), very small high-income countries (HICs) (for example, Brunei, 
Monaco and Singapore), several countries in the Middle East (such as 
Saudi Arabia and Qatar) and countries (recently) experiencing conflict 
(for example, Eritrea and Syria).

Global baseline
Table 1 presents the selected indicators and their global distributions 
in the most recent year for which data are available (the definitions, 
data sources, rationale for inclusion, key limitations and desirable 
direction of change are provided in Extended Data Table 1). In Table 1 
(and Fig. 3), the best ranking and worst ranking reflect the ranking of 
all countries per indicator relative to the desirable direction of change, 
where the best (first ranking) is the highest value for indicators where 
higher is more desirable and the lowest for indicators where lower is 

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more desirable. A lower rank indicates a better ranked position. The 
characterization is meant to be descriptive of the relative baseline 
starting points and is not intended as a performance assessment, which 
is a subsequent research agenda of the FSCI in the next two years. The 
baseline dataset includes the latest available data point per coun-
try–indicator, which differs given data availability. Most data (92.5%) 
are from 2017–2022, 6.5% are from 2010–2016 and only 1% are from 
2000–2009. The specific year per country–indicator pair is reported 

in Supplementary Data 1, and the complete country-level dataset is 
in Supplementary Data 2. Several general patterns emerge from this 
global view, supported by descriptive analyses by region and income 
group for all indicators in Supplementary Figs. 1.1.1–1.5.17.

All food environment indicators suggest inequalities across 
countries: the availability of fruits and vegetables is generally a chal-
lenge in low- and middle-income countries, while HICs generally have 
widespread availability of ultra-processed foods. The cost of healthy 

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Diets, nutrition and health

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Fig. 3 | Average country ranking per theme, by country income level. 
The mean ranking of indicators within each theme shows that no country is 
performing in alignment with desirable outcomes for all themes. The bottom 
ranking indicates scores farthest from the minimum or maximum value observed 
across all countries, depending on whether lower or higher values are aligned 
to the desirable outcome. Countries are ranked per indicator relative to all 
other countries, and the average rank for all indicators within a theme is shown 
per country. Countries are grouped by income level and presented in order of 
increasing income from left to right and top to bottom. The horizontal black 
lines indicate the global median rank pooling all indicators. The results are from 

our calculations based on the data sources listed in Extended Data Table 1 and 
from the latest data point per country–indicator pair, of which the majority 
come from 2017–2021. Supplementary Data 1 contains the specific year for each 
country–indicator data point. Binary and categorical indicators are not ranked 
and are therefore excluded from the governance theme average. Country ranking 
per indicator is averaged at the theme level. Not all countries have data for every 
indicator. Missing data do not bias the total ranking visualized, but they do 
result in implicit weighting of the thematic mean rank by the present indicators. 
Country abbreviations shown as ISO alpha-3 country codes.

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diets is similar across most countries, but given wide differences in 
purchasing power, that cost is largely unaffordable across low- and 
middle-income countries.

Despite some improving trajectories, total food system emissions 
are increasing and remain high in HICs. Northern Africa and western 
and southern Asia remain at the greatest risk of exhausting available 
water resources. Only 88% of agricultural lands have the minimum of 
10% functional integrity needed to support food production, meaning 

over one tenth of the world’s agricultural lands lack foundational eco-
system services such as crop pollination, pest regulation and soil pro-
tection, and other research suggests that the 10% threshold may be 
insufficient39.

The available data provide only a partial view of food-system-based 
livelihoods, but even the incomplete picture suggests deep inequali-
ties. Important differences in unemployment and underemployment 
between rural and urban areas show that unemployment is prevalent 

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Vegetable availability

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Emissions intensity, rice

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Income group Low income Lower-middle income Upper-middle income High income

Fig. 4 | Average country ranking per theme, by country income level. 
Normalized difference between each income group mean value per indicator 
and the global mean for that indicator (represented by the black vertical lines). 
Differences are aligned to the desirable direction of change such that points to 
the left of the global mean indicate that the indicator mean level is less desirable 
than the global mean and points to the right indicate values more desirable than 
the global mean. The results are from our calculations based on the data sources 
listed in Extended Data Table 1 and from the latest data point per country–
indicator pair, of which the majority come from 2017–2021. Supplementary Data 1 
contains the specific year for each country–indicator data point. The normalized 
distance to the global mean (weighted means following the weights defined in 

Table 1) is calculated relative to the global mean and scaled to the minimum and 
maximum of the income group mean, per indicator (the global mean is centred at 
0). The sign of the normalized distance has been reversed for all indicators where 
a lower value is more desirable, such that −1 can be interpreted as ‘worse than’ 
and 1 can be interpreted as ‘better than’ the global mean. The number of people 
who cannot afford a healthy diet and the degree of legal recognition of the right 
to food are not shown. The product mixes in aggregate categories of emissions 
intensities (cereals) and yields (cereals, citrus, fruit, pulses, roots and tubers, and 
vegetables) differ across countries. Yield and emissions intensity for additional 
products are included in Supplementary Appendix 1 and the baseline dataset.

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in urban areas while underemployment is more prevalent in rural areas. 
Other evidence shows a larger gender gap in labour force participation 
in rural areas40. Even where there is adequate coverage of social protec-
tion programmes, the level of benefits provided may be insufficient to 
produce meaningful impacts, and informal and seasonal workers are 
often excluded41–44. Finally, access to land shows a stark gender disparity 
with no country approaching gender equality in landholdings.

The data show that indicators of overall governance track country 
income, while those more closely related to food systems show more 
heterogeneity across regions and income groups. For example, only 
29 countries explicitly recognize the right to food, while the United 
States, Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia notably have no 
degree of legal recognition. In addition, health-related food taxes exist 
in 38 countries spread across all continents.

Looking across resilience indicators for a sub-group of coun-
tries (Supplementary Fig. 1.5.17), the data show that some countries 
(for example, the Philippines, Nicaragua and Indonesia) demonstrate 
relatively higher food price volatility or food supply variability than 
others (for example, the Netherlands, Thailand and India). These are 
countries facing higher exposure and/or lower resilience capacities 
(such as Nicaragua and Ecuador), showing that they also fare worse in 
their food system outcomes than those less exposed to shocks and/or 
characterized by higher social capital and dietary sourcing flexibility 
(such as Thailand and the Netherlands). However, this trend displays 
important variability, reflecting the specificity in how shocks propagate 
through a country’s food system, and calls for more in-depth analyses 
such as the future work planned to focus on interactions and dynamics 
of change across food systems.

Many aspects of food systems are associated with country income 
level25, raising questions of which indicators evade income trends and 
whether there are inflection points by income that might help countries 
set priorities. Figure 3 presents the country-level mean ranking per 
theme, grouped by country income level (for grouping by region, see 
Supplementary Figs. 1.12–1.20). The results illustrate that within every 
income group, there are some countries performing better than others. 
Even among the lowest-income countries, Uganda and Mozambique 
rank near the global median across all indicators, while on the other end 
of the spectrum, despite their high-income status, several countries 
rank worse on average than countries with many fewer resources. This 
analysis begins to suggest which countries might have useful lessons 
for others, especially those non-HICs outranking their income-group 
peers such as Uganda, Mozambique, Sri Lanka, the Philippines, Nigeria 
and Kazakhstan.

Looking at each indicator by country groupings, Fig. 4 shows the 
distribution of country income groups relative to the global average. 
The figure is aligned to the desirable direction of change (defined 
in Extended Data Table 1) such that to the right of the global mean 
is better. Additional analyses present the values displayed and test 
for statistically significant differences by country income group and 
by region (Supplementary Tables 1.1 and 1.4) and provide weighted 
means and medians by region and income group (Supplementary 
Tables 1.2, 1.3, 1.5 and 1.6). These analyses show that only the presence 
of a national food system pathway is not statistically significantly dif-
ferent by region, while numerous variables do not differ by country 
income group, including the cost of a healthy diet, the availability of 
fruits and vegetables, the minimum dietary diversity for women, food 
system emissions, cereal yields, cropland change, agricultural water 
withdrawals, functional integrity, rural underemployment, women’s 
share of landholdings, the presence of a food system transformation 
pathway, the Open Budget Index and mobile subscriptions.

Beyond country income level, understanding each indicator’s 
relationship to GDP per capita is useful for hypothesis generation. 
Supplementary Figs. 1.21–1.26 show the relationship between each 
(continuous) indicator and GDP per capita. Several indicators exhibit 
less obvious relationships to GDP, including the cost of a healthy diet, 

pesticide use and sustainable nitrogen management, yields for vegeta-
bles and roots and tubers (potentially reflecting different crop mixes), 
female landholdings, food price volatility, food supply variability and 
mobile phone subscriptions. These findings underscore the potential 
for policymakers and other actors to influence more desirable out-
comes on at least some indicators of food systems even in low-income 
countries, and to identify where income seems to be a necessary driver 
(though alone probably insufficient) of more desirable outcomes.

Discussion
The indicator framework presented in this paper allows progress across 
global food systems to be meaningfully tracked, complementing the 
SDGs and other indicator frameworks with a curated set of existing 
indicators to monitor food systems, selected through a consultative 
process. It provides the foundation for future research to better under-
stand how and where change comes about, and importantly how to 
identify where improvements in any one domain do not necessarily 
translate into improvements in others45,46. Looking across this base-
line, the indicators included offer a trove of information that provides 
transparency and specificity to the important constructs but does not 
prescribe obvious or uniform actions. Three clear messages emerge. 
First, no country, region or income group exhibits desirable status 
across all indicators. Second, not all food system indicators are aligned 
to country income level; there are a diversity of food system trajecto-
ries. And third, there are some critical data gaps to monitor the world’s 
food systems that must be filled in the near term to guide action in 
service of food system transformation, meeting the SDGs and ensur-
ing that food systems positively contribute to the many global goals 
linked to food systems.

The FSCI effort is intended to complement other global goal set-
ting and monitoring efforts such as the SDGs, through the lens of food 
systems, which have been only partially captured in existing goals, 
indicators and monitoring efforts. We aim for synergies with these 
internationally recognized goals, but the very small overlap between 
the SDGs and the FSCI framework reflects the fact that food systems 
were not yet considered a mainstream framing approach when the 
SDGs were developed. As food systems become more widely under-
stood from a systems perspective, the large set of FSCI indicators that 
are not in the SDGs provides some guidance as to indicators that could 
be considered for the next set of global goals.

The process of indicator selection identified key data gaps—the 
specific information that needs to be collected at scale to achieve the 
ambitious goal of tracking and informing food system transforma-
tion. The gaps span all themes—for example, livelihood indicators 
beyond agriculture, food loss and waste, and governance of food 
systems. Many ongoing initiatives are working to fill some gaps (Sup-
plementary Table 4.2), with notable achievements already in bring-
ing data together (for example, the Food Systems Dashboard47). 
The baseline dataset provides a starting point for tracking, and the 
framework of indicators can be used by policymakers and other 
food system actors to diagnose their food systems and formulate 
appropriate responses, including transformation plans, and monitor 
advances in their countries. The baseline description demonstrates 
that no country shows positive outcomes across all dimensions. In 
addition, given that some food system outcomes are independent 
of national income levels, dedicated monitoring and transformation 
agendas specific to food systems are needed. Ongoing expansion of 
the FAOSTAT database and the Global Diet Quality Project will also 
help fill these gaps18,48. Other advances are dramatically reducing 
costs and increasing the quality and granularity of new data collection 
(for example, the 50×2030 Initiative)49–52.

This indicator framework was developed with usefulness to 
countries and other food system decision-makers as a driving pur-
pose, but country-level testing and adaptation is warranted. Follow-
ing the UNFSS process, at the time of latest analysis by the Food and 

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Agriculture Organization (FAO), 123 governments had developed 
national food system transformation pathways12. The five domains 
of the FSCI architecture map closely to these pathways and will allow 
them to be well monitored with the indicators selected and presented 
here (Supplementary Table D.3). There is utility in tracking national 
progress relative to goals as well as relative progress within a region, 
by income peer group or in the world overall. In addition to meeting 
the information needs at a country level, the indicator framework 
is useful in addressing the supranational and transboundary issues 
within food systems that require alignment, coordination and goals 
at higher jurisdictional levels. Decision-makers can use the frame-
work as a starting point to consider what changes in indicators are 
achievable at different scales and can forge coalitions to drive change. 
Furthermore, different actors may find certain indicators more use-
ful for guiding action than others. For example, donors may be more 
concerned with cross-country comparisons when deciding how to 
allocate resources. National policymakers may be more interested 
in understanding how their country is doing over time on indicators 
under more direct national influence or control.

This baseline sets the stage, but future work is needed to close data 
gaps, assess status relative to benchmarks aligned to transformation, 
understand how food systems evolve over time (including interactions 
across different indicators that affect the sustainability of food systems 
overall) and better understand and take action to support the needs of 
national and global data users. The FSCI will undertake this research 
and action agenda in the coming years alongside regularly updated 
assessments tracking progress from this baseline forward, including 
the addition of new indicators or the refinement of the current set of 
indicators as food systems science progresses. By doing so, the FSCI 
aims to facilitate and accelerate food system transformation to deliver 
a healthier, more equitable, sustainable and resilient future for all.

Methods
This paper has used the term ‘food systems’ throughout, in line with the 
UNFSS language. However, the indicator framework presented takes 
an expanded concept of agri-food systems given that many indicators 
cannot distinguish between food and non-food components of produc-
tion and value addition, although such non-food components greatly 
influence the environment, social outcomes and the food people ulti-
mately eat. Hence, food systems as used here encompass activities 
and processes around non-food agricultural products (for example, 
forestry, fibres and biofuels) that are interconnected with food for 
human consumption1.

A rigorous set of prerequisite criteria were established that all indi-
cators had to meet to be considered at all for this work, which included 
feasibility (having recent data and being planned to be updated within 
the next eight years), coverage (at least 70 countries across regions and 
income levels) and transparency (no modelled indicators with undis-
closed or untraceable methodologies). A comprehensive multi-stage, 
multi-stakeholder process was then conducted to select the list of 
indicators analysed in this paper (described in further detail below). 
Using a quantitative survey, dozens of experts were asked to rate each 
candidate indicator on its relevance, the quality of the data and meth-
ods, and its interpretability for policy purposes. Indicators assessed 
to be relevant, high quality and interpretable were considered to be 
useful, and a usefulness criterion was applied to the suite of indicators 
selected to monitor each domain to ensure sufficient but not redundant 
information. Finally, crucial input on regional priorities and policy 
utility provided by policy stakeholders was incorporated. Several 
indicators come from common sources such as FAOSTAT, the Gallup 
World Poll and the World Bank, but data from many other academic 
and non-governmental organization sources are also included. This 
replicable protocol including the survey and consultation processes 
culminated in our final selection of the indicators presented in this 
paper. All data and replication code are publicly available.

Data
The data used in this paper were sourced from many global, publicly 
available data sources. Extended Data Table 1 provides the data source, 
description, rationale for inclusion and coverage metadata for each 
indicator as well as any notable limitations and mitigation actions to 
address them. Supplementary Data 1 provides an Excel spreadsheet 
containing the complete metadata, a codebook, country and year cov-
erage, and the year of the latest data point per country–indicator that 
comprises the baseline. Supplementary Data 2 contains the complete 
baseline dataset of the latest data point per country per indicator used 
in the baseline analysis presented herein.

Indicator selection
We employed a multi-stage, multi-stakeholder process to select the 
list of indicators analysed in this paper. A preliminary set of criteria 
was previously published in Fanzo et al.1. In the first stage of indicator 
selection, we refined these criteria by deeming three attributes to be 
essential: feasibility, coverage and transparency. Next, we refined the 
four criteria established previously: relevant, high quality, interpret-
able and useful. Extended Data Table 2 details the requirements, criteria 
definitions and sub-criteria.

Working group members compiled a list of candidate indicators 
for each domain that met the prerequisite requirements for potential 
inclusion. Supplementary Appendix 2 contains the indicator catalogue 
of all candidates, indicator options excluded for failure to meet the 
prerequisites and all relevant information that was provided to assess 
the indicators. This list of candidate indicators was assessed against 
the first three criteria (relevance, quality and interpretability) using an 
online survey by all the collaborators and an additional group of over 
two dozen external experts who were volunteer respondents based on 
a list of experts generated by all the authors with additional research to 
reach relevant people unknown to the author group. Everyone assessed 
indicators in the domain(s) aligned with their expertise. The respond-
ents were asked to choose their level of agreement (from 1 to 5) with 
the statement that the candidate indicator met each sub-criterion, the 
elements in the bulleted lists in Extended Data Table 2. All respondents 
were also asked to state their agreement that the indicator is important 
for tracking food system transformation and to share their interpreta-
tion of both importance and transformation in that context, providing 
complementary qualitative data. Finally, the external experts were also 
asked to suggest additional data sources for candidate indicators and 
to describe any observed gaps in the domains and indicators and how 
they recommend filling those gaps. For those who assessed govern-
ance indicators, an additional question asked what new indicators 
the respondent deemed necessary and asked for recommendations 
for their construction. Supplementary Appendix 3 contains the full 
report of the survey procedures and outcomes, including all the scoring 
results. Figure 1 summarizes the flow of indicators through the process.

In parallel, the FAO convened five regional policy stakeholder 
consultations in Latin America and the Caribbean, sub-Saharan Africa, 
North Africa and the Middle East, Asia and the Pacific, and Europe. Over 
500 people participated, averaging 75–100 per region. The consulta-
tions included a short overview presentation and breakout discussions 
of each thematic area. The participants were asked to assess the local 
pertinence of the architecture and indicator framework and to solicit 
regional priorities, interests and needs. Supplementary Appendix 3 
contains the reports for each regional consultation. The consultation 
asked experts and stakeholders to suggest alternative indicators and 
data sources and to identify gaps, which resulted in the addition of 
several indicators to the initial list of candidates.

To identify the final list of indicators, scores from the assess-
ment of indicators against the six sub-criteria of relevance, quality 
and interpretability criteria were summed to the indicator level with 
equal weighting, providing a single score per indicator. Usefulness was 
assessed qualitatively at the level of indicator domains, with emphasis 

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Analysis https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-023-00885-9

on meeting the needs illuminated by the policy stakeholder workshops. 
Twelve indicators were added and ultimately included in the final set 
after the survey and consultations because they address gaps that were 
widely identified. These indicators are safe drinking water, agri-food 
system emissions, yields, share of agriculture in GDP, underemploy-
ment, degree of legal recognition of the right to food, percentage of the 
urban population living in a signatory municipality to the MUFPP, food 
safety capacity, health-related food taxes, guarantees for public access 
to information, proportion of agricultural land with minimum species 
richness and the number of animal and plant genetic resources in con-
servation facilities. Some gaps identified in the consultations could 
not be filled and are instead described in the data gaps and research 
agenda discussion; in particular, the lack of food loss and waste data 
was a prominent theme of the consultations.

Analysis methods
Analyses were carried out in Stata v.17 and R v.4.2.2. The data were 
compiled into a dataset where all years of available data per country 
and indicator were included. In two instances (EM-DAT and Varieties 
of Democracy indices), data prior to 1960 were excluded because no 
other datasets provided data before that year. Initially, all territories 
classified in the UN Global Administrative Units List dataset53 and pre-
sent in any datasets were included (94 areas in total). After compiling 
the complete dataset with all indicators, we investigated whether there 
was sufficient coverage across all indicators for any territories or areas 
that are not UN member states to remain in the dataset. A criterion was 
applied that the area must have at least 80% of all indicators. In practice, 
all territories were dropped at a much lower threshold, none having 
more than the median number of variables present for member states 
(40, where certain indicators are represented in the dataset by more 
than one variable). In sum, the dataset contains all the available data 
from 1960 to 2021 for all UN member states, and one indicator (the pres-
ence of a food system transformation pathway) defined only in 2022.

The focus of this manuscript is a baseline dataset comprising 
the latest data point per country per year. Overall, 92.5% of all data 
points are from 2017–2022, 6.5% are from 2010–2016 and only 1% are 
from 2000–2009. A small number of observations (N = 24 across all 
indicators) were dropped from the dataset because the latest data 
point for that country–indicator pair came from prior to 2000. The 
only indicator where this dropped more than a few observations is 
female share of landholdings, which has 13 countries whose data point 
in that cross-sectional dataset is from the 1990s or before. A new data 
source will become available through the SDG process (SDG 5.a.1) for 
this indicator in future years.

The Supplementary Information includes analysis of the data 
from 2000 forward wherever time series are available. Countries are 
grouped into regions based on modified groupings of the M49 classi-
fication system of the UN Statistical Commission, using a combination 
of continental and sub-regional groupings. Supplementary Fig. 1.2  
depicts the alignment of countries to the modified M49 regional group-
ing used in this paper. Countries are identified by income group using 
the World Bank country income classification54.

The rankings of indicators (Fig. 3) are calculated by ordering every 
continuous indicator numerically and assigning each country a rank 
order for every indicator. The rank is reversed for all indicators where 
a higher value is more desirable (per Extended Data Table 1), such that 
a ranking of 1 is assigned to the country with the most extreme (highest 
or lowest) value, whichever direction is desirable for that indicator. We 
calculated the average rank for all indicators per theme, with the limita-
tion that doing so implicitly weights the thematic average rank for any 
countries without data for any indicators within the theme. This is an 
unavoidable limitation and allowed for country-level visualization of 
data with great variation in their range and units of analysis.

The distributions of the indicators by region and income group 
relative to the global weighted mean (Fig. 4 and Supplementary  

Tables 1.1 and 1.4) are presented as the normalized difference from 
the global weighted mean. The global weighted mean is subtracted 
from the region (income group) weighted mean and normalized 
using min–max scaling, which divides the demeaned observation by 
the total range across all regions (income groups) (that is, it divides 
by the maximum observed minus the minimum observed). Devia-
tions of region and income group weighted means from the global 
weighted mean (Supplementary Tables 1.1 and 1.4) are calculated using 
weighted least squares regression with heteroskedasticity robust 
standard errors regressing region (income group) on the demeaned 
observation. Demeaned observations are calculated by subtracting 
the global weighted mean from each observation. The sign of the 
demeaned observation is reversed for all indicators where the desirable 
direction of change is lower. Regression coefficients are the regional 
(income group) deviation from the global average with the sign indicat-
ing whether the region is performing worse (negative sign) or better 
(positive sign) than the global average. The signed deviation is then 
translated into a percentage deviation by dividing by the global average 
to harmonize the presentation of indicators given the different units 
and scales of their level measurements.

Finally, we emphasize that this exercise was based on a framework 
of food systems, and therefore we would expect that certain features 
of a country’s food system would be related to other features of a 
country’s food system. To explore this, we calculated a Spearman rank 
correlation matrix (Supplementary Fig. 1.26). However, we caution 
the interpretation of correlation as redundancy; we do not intend to 
create a single index, in which case high levels of correlation among 
the variables entering the model would be problematic. Instead, we 
put forward this matrix for the purpose of hypothesis generation 
regarding the key interactions among indicators that merit further 
investigation, which will be the focus of our research agenda over the 
next two years.

Reporting summary
Further information on research design is available in the Nature Port-
folio Reporting Summary linked to this article.

Data availability
The analysis in this paper relies on numerous datasets in the pub-
lic domain unless otherwise noted (for which permission to include 
in our dataset was secured). The metadata contain the necessary 
links to access the underlying raw data. Static copies of the raw data 
downloaded and used at the time of this analysis are also available in 
the GitHub repository with replication code, analysis datasets and 
all analysis output, at https://github.com/KateSchneider-FoodPol/ 
FSCI_2023Baseline_Replication. The use of any materials in the GitHub 
repository is subject to a CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 (non-commercial, share 
alike) licence. The datasets are archived on Harvard Dataverse under 
a CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 (non-commercial, share alike) licence, and any 
use or derivatives require attribution of the following: https://doi. 
org/10.7910/DVN/A1H2SH.

Code availability
Replication code for this paper is available on GitHub at https://github. 
com/KateSchneider-FoodPol/FSCI_2023Baseline_Replication.

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