Browsing by Author "Owusu, P.A."
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Item Does energy consumption follow asymmetric behavior? An assessment of Ghana's energy sector dynamics(Science of the Total Environment, 2018-10-10) Crentsil, A.O.; Sarkodie, S.A.; Owusu, P.A.The study answered the following questions: First, does energy evolves in different regimes by transitioning over a finite set of unobserved states? Second, does energy consumption follow an asymmetric behavior over “energy boom” and energy scarcity? and, Third, are there unobserved factors underpinning energy crisis? We employed Markov-switching dynamic regression to examine the asymmetric effect, NIPALS regression to examine energy determinants and neural network analysis for prediction. The neural network model suggests a 99% prediction of energy consumption by the predictor variables. It was evident that energy consumption evolves in two states by transitioning over a finite set of unobserved states. The 11.6% growth in energy consumption is expected to occur in 4.1 years while energy crisis is expected to last for 3.7 years. Technological advancement and the development of green energy through foreign direct investment are essential to improve energy sector portfolio.Item Does energy consumption follow asymmetric behavior? An assessment of Ghana's energy sector dynamics(Science of the Total Environment, 2019-02) Sarkodie, S.A.; Crentsil, A.O.; Owusu, P.A.The study answered the following questions: First, does energy evolves in different regimes by transitioning over a finite set of unobserved states? Second, does energy consumption follow an asymmetric behavior over “energy boom” and energy scarcity? and, Third, are there unobserved factors underpinning energy crisis? We employed Markov-switching dynamic regression to examine the asymmetric effect, NIPALS regression to examine energy determinants and neural network analysis for prediction. The neural network model suggests a 99% prediction of energy consumption by the predictor variables. It was evident that energy consumption evolves in two states by transitioning over a finite set of unobserved states. The 11.6% growth in energy consumption is expected to occur in 4.1 years while energy crisis is expected to last for 3.7 years. Technological advancement and the development of green energy through foreign direct investment are essential to improve energy sector portfolio.Item Rice price volatility and transmission: implications for food security in Ghana(Cogent Economics & Finance, 2022) Onumah, E.E.; Owusu, P.A.; Mensah-Bonsu, A.; Degraft, H.A.This paper examines price volatility and transmission of rice markets in Ghana and draws implications for food security. Using monthly rice price data from From 2013 to 2019, the paper uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) with an Error Correction Model (ECM) to ascertain the availability and accessibility of rice, whilst the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model is considered to measure the stability of the commodity. The paper finds evidence of cointegration between the World and Ghana’s rice market. Findings confirm cointegration in Ghana’s regional markets for both imported and domestically produced rice. This ensures stable long-run relationship, allowing trade flows that guarantees rice availability. The corrections in short-run deviations of price ensure continuous accessibility of rice in the country. Estimates from the volatility model suggest high fluctuation in prices, implying stability in the prices of rice is an issue across all regional markets. The paper recommends efforts to increase domestic production to enhance availability and accessibility of rice. Stakeholders along the rice value chain should be encouraged to invest in competitive riceproduction. government should leverage rice prices with giant import countries to reduce the cost of importation for stable price on the market.