M I D D L E E A S T A N D N O R T H A F R I C A D E V E L O P M E N T R E P O R T Blue Skies, Blue Seas Air Pollution, Marine Plastics, and Coastal Erosion in the Middle East and North Africa Martin Philipp Heger, Lukas Vashold, Anabella Palacios, Mala Alahmadi, Marjory-Anne Bromhead, and Marcelo Acerbi Blue Skies, Blue Seas M E N A D E V E L O P M E N T R E P O R T Blue Skies, Blue Seas Air Pollution, Marine Plastics, and Coastal Erosion in the Middle East and North Africa Martin Philipp Heger, Lukas Vashold, Anabella Palacios, Mala Alahmadi, Marjory-Anne Bromhead, and Marcelo Acerbi © 2022 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved 1 2 3 4 25 24 23 22 This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. 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All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. ISBN (paper): 978-1-4648-1812-7 ISBN (electronic): 978-1-4648-1813-4 DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1812-7 Cover photo: © Melina Rose Yingling / World Bank. Further permission required for reuse. Cover design: Bill Pragluski, Critical Stages LLC The Library of Congress Control Number has been requested. MENA Development Report Series This series features major development reports from the Middle East and North Africa region of the World Bank, based on new research and thoroughly peer-reviewed analysis. Each report aims to enrich the debate on the main development challenges and opportunities the region faces as it strives to meet the evolving needs of its people. TITLES IN THE MENA DEVELOPMENT REPORT SERIES Blue Skies, Blue Seas: Air Pollution, Marine Plastics, and Coastal Erosion in the Middle East and North Africa (2022) by Martin Philipp Heger, Lukas Vashold, Anabella Palacios, Mala Alahmadi, Marjory-Anne Bromhead, and Marcelo Acerbi The Reconstruction of Iraq after 2003: Learning from Its Successes and Failures (2019) by Hideki Matsunaga Beyond Scarcity: Water Security in the Middle East and North Africa (2018) by World Bank Jobs or Privileges: Unleashing the Employment Potential of the Middle East and North Africa (2015) by Marc Schiffbauer, Abdoulaye Sy, Sahar Hussain, Hania Sahnoun, and Philip Keefer The Road Traveled: Dubai’s Journey towards Improving Private Education: A World Bank Review (2014) by Simon Thacker and Ernesto Cuadra Inclusion and Resilience: The Way Forward for Social Safety Nets in the Middle East and North Africa (2013) by Joana Silva, Victoria Levin, and Matteo Morgandi Opening Doors: Gender Equality and Development in the Middle East and North Africa (2013) by World Bank From Political to Economic Awakening in the Arab World: The Path of Economic Integration (2013) by Jean-Pierre Chauffour Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries: A Case for Adaptation Governance and Leadership in Building Climate Resilience (2012) by Dorte Verner Renewable Energy Desalination: An Emerging Solution to Close the Water Gap in the Middle East and North Africa (2012) by World Bank Poor Places, Thriving People: How the Middle East and North Africa Can Rise Above Spatial Disparities (2011) by World Bank Financial Access and Stability: A Road Map for the Middle East and North Africa (2011) by Roberto R. Rocha, Zsofia Arvai, and Subika Farazi From Privilege to Competition: Unlocking Private-Led Growth in the Middle East and North Africa (2009) by World Bank The Road Not Traveled: Education Reform in the Middle East and North Africa (2008) by World Bank Making the Most of Scarcity: Accountability for Better Water Management Results in the Middle East and North Africa (2007) by World Bank Gender and Development in the Middle East and North Africa: Women in the Public Sphere (2004) by World Bank Unlocking the Employment Potential in the Middle East and North Africa: Toward a New Social Contract (2004) by World Bank Better Governance for Development in the Middle East and North Africa: Enhancing Inclusiveness and Accountability (2003) by World Bank Trade, Investment, and Development in the Middle East and North Africa: Engaging with the World (2003) by World Bank All books in the MENA Development Report series are available for free at https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/2168. Contents Acknowledgments xvii Executive Summary xix Abbreviations xli 1 Introduction 1 Overview 1 “Blue” Capital and Three Core Issues 2 Road Map to the Report 2 Notes 5 2 Human Advancement and Sustainable Natural Capital Use in the Middle East and North Africa 7 Overview 7 Improvement in Incomes, Produced Capital, and Human Capital 9 Natural Capital Deteriorates as Environmental Degradation Accelerates 16 A Lag in Decoupling Growth from Air Pollution and GHGs 29 Switching to a Green Growth Path 36 Conclusion 44 Notes 46 References 49 3 Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 57 Overview 57 How Polluted Are the Cities’ Skies? 59 The Health and Economic Impacts of Dirty Skies 65 Policy Review: How to Get Clear Blue Skies? 80 Notes 163 References 166 vii viii Blue Skies, Blue Seas 4 Blue Seas: Freeing the Seas from Plastics 181 Overview 181 The State of Plastic Pollution in the Seas 183 The Environmental, Public Health, and Economic Impacts of Plastic-Polluted Seas 196 Policy Review: How to Get Clear, Blue, Plastic-Free Seas? 202 Notes 270 References 272 5 Blue Seas: Fighting Coastal Erosion 285 Overview 285 How Eroded Is the Coast? 287 The Economic Impacts of Eroded Coasts 298 Policy Review: How to Combat Coastal Erosion 309 Notes 347 References 348 Boxes 2.1 Green Recovery Goals Guide COVID-19 Responses by Multilateral Organizations 37 2.2 Job Creation from Green Growth Strategies 40 2.3 Carbon Wealth in the Middle East and North Africa and Its Potential Pitfalls 43 3.1 Different Sources and Health Effects of Different PM Diameters 66 3.2 Air Quality Monitoring in Abu Dhabi and the United Arab Emirates 93 3.3 Reforming Fuel Subsidies: Lessons from International Experience 102 3.4 Slashing Fuel Subsidies during Periods of Low Global Oil Prices Reduces Public Discontent 104 3.5 Environmental Fiscal Reform: International Experiences 107 3.6 Vehicle Technology and Related Regulations in the Middle East and North Africa 110 3.7 Fuel Quality Standards in the Middle East and North Africa 114 3.8 Public Transportation in Middle East and North Africa’s Cities 120 3.9 Place-Based Policies and Their Effects on Air Pollution 124 3.10 Successful Pollution Abatement Projects in the Middle East and North Africa 133 3.11 California’s Emissions Trading System (ETS) 135 Contents ix 3.12 Saudi Arabia’s Efforts to Increase Energy Efficiency 139 3.13 Regional Examples of Investment in Renewable Energy Sources 142 3.14 Reducing the “Black Cloud” Phenomenon in Greater Cairo 151 3.15 Reusing Crop Residues as Fertilizer with the Happy Seeder 153 3.16 Public Awareness Programs on Air Pollution in the Middle East and North Africa 155 3.17 Green Space in Cairo, Egypt 160 4.1 Marine-Plastic Pollution within the International Policy Agenda 184 4.2 Identifying the Hot Spots of Marine-Plastic Debris along Morocco’s Coasts 211 4.3 Green Bond Financing for SWM Systems 227 4.4 A Snapshot of the Petrochemical Industry in the Middle East and North Africa 231 4.5 Eliminating SUPs in the United Arab Emirates 236 4.6 Morocco: Implementing an Ecotax on Plastic Production 237 4.7 Tunisia: The ECOLEF Program to Increase Recycling 238 4.8 Emerging Alternatives to SUPs in the Middle East and North Africa 243 4.9 The EU Plan to Reduce SUP 246 4.10 Plastics Circularity and Market Potential: Examples from Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand 255 4.11 Integration of Recyclers into Local Waste Management Systems: Examples from Latin America 261 5.1 Tourism in the Middle East and North Africa and the Impact of COVID-19 290 5.2 Sediment Budgets and Numerical Modeling in West Africa 321 5.3 Iraq’s Al-Faw Grand Port: Computational Modeling to Eliminate Coastal Erosion 322 5.4 Rosetta Promontory: Computational Modeling of Solutions to Fight Coastal Erosion 323 5.5 Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) in Morocco 326 5.6 Enhancing Climate Change Adaptation in the North Coast and Nile Delta Regions in Egypt 328 5.7 India’s ICZM Project: A Comprehensive Approach for Combating Coastal Erosion 330 5.8 General Overview of Hard-Defense Options 333 x Blue Skies, Blue Seas 5.9 Effects of Different Defense Structures in Soliman Beach, Tunisia 338 5.10 Building with Nature: Approaches for Beach Replenishment from the Netherlands 342 Figures ES.1 Urban Air Pollution, Marine-Plastic Pollution, and Net Coastal Erosion, by Region xxii 2.1 Capital Accounting Framework 9 2.2 Gross National Income Per Capita, by Subregion, Middle East and North Africa, 1990–2018 10 2.3 Trends in Access and Use of Basic Sanitation and Drinking Water Services in the Middle East and North Africa, by Subregion, 2000–17 11 2.4 Trends in Rural Access to Electricity and Total Population’s Internet Use in the Middle East and North Africa, by Subregion 12 2.5 Selected Human Capital Indicators in the Middle East and North Africa, by Subregion 14 2.6 Recent Trends in Selected Gas Emissions in the Middle East and North Africa, by Subregion 17 2.7 Volume of Plastic Debris Entering the Seas from the Middle East and North Africa, by Economy, 2010 and 2025 19 2.8 Average Annual Net Coastal Accretion and Erosion, Global Regions and Middle East and North Africa Subregions, 1984–2016 20 2.9 Natural Habitat Index Trends in the Middle East and North Africa, by Subregion 22 2.10 Sustainability of Water Withdrawals, by Source, as a Share of Total Withdrawals in Middle East and North Africa Economies, 2010s 25 2.11 Mean Sea Level Rise of the Mediterranean Sea, 1993–2020 28 2.12 Trends in Growth of GNI Per Capita in Relation to CO2 Emissions Per Capita in Middle East and North Africa Subregions and Other Global Regions, 1990–2018 30 2.13 Growth of GNI Per Capita in Relation to CO2 Emissions Per Capita since 1990 in Middle East and North Africa Economies 31 2.14 Progress in Decoupling Growth of GNI Per Capita from NOX and SO2 Emissions Per Capita since 1990, by Global Region 32 Contents xi 2.15 Extent of Decoupling Growth of GNI Per Capita from NOX and SO2 Emissions Per Capita since 1990, Middle East and North Africa Economies 33 2.16 Comparison of Global Regions in Decoupling Growth of GNI Per Capita from Black Carbon Emissions Per Capita since 1990 34 2.17 Comparison of Global Regions in Decoupling Growth of GNI Per Capita from PM2.5 Exposure since 1990 36 3.1 Ambient Air Pollution in Urban Areas, by World Region, 2016 61 3.2 Ambient Air Pollution in Capital Cities of Selected Middle East and North Africa Countries, 2018 62 3.3 Ambient Air Pollution in Non-Capital Major Cities of Selected Middle East and North Africa Countries, 2018 63 3.4 Global Comparison of Ambient Air Pollution in Capital or Other Major Cities in Relation to Countries’ Income Levels 64 B3.1.1 Size Comparisons for PM10 and PM2.5 Particles 66 3.5 Share of Total Mortality Risk from Most Prevalent Causes in the Middle East and North Africa, 2019 68 3.6 Trends in Risk Exposure, by Cause, in the Middle East and North Africa, 1990–2019 68 3.7 AAP-Induced Causes of Death in the Middle East and North Africa, 2019 69 3.8 Death Rates Attributable to AAP in the Middle East and North Africa, by Economy, 2019 70 3.9 Total AAP-Related Deaths in the Middle East and North Africa, by Subregion and Economy, 2019 71 3.10 Trends in Morbidity Due to AAP in the Middle East and North Africa, by Subregion, 1990–2019 72 3.11 AAP-Related Deaths in the Middle East and North Africa, by Economy and Age Group, 2019 73 3.12 Estimated Effect of Increased AAP Exposure during Pregnancy on Stunting or Wasting of Children Born 2002–14, Selected Middle East and North Africa Countries 74 3.13 Global Morbidity and Mortality Rates Related to Air Pollution, by Region, 2019 75 3.14 Decomposition of National Sources of PM2.5 Concentrations in the Middle East and North Africa, by Subregion, 2018 89 3.15 Decomposition of PM2.5 Sources in Greater Cairo, Summer and Fall 2010 90 xii Blue Skies, Blue Seas 3.16 Decomposition of Air Pollutant Sources, by Sector, in the EEA-33 Countries, 2017 92 3.17 Average Diesel and Gasoline Pump Prices Per Liter, by Global Region, 2016 and 2018 98 3.18 Average Diesel Pump Prices Per Liter in the Middle East and North Africa, by Economy, 2016 and 2018 99 3.19 Average Gasoline Pump Prices Per Liter in the Middle East and North Africa, by Economy, 2016 and 2018 100 B3.7.1 Diesel Sulfur Limits in the Middle East and North Africa, by Economy, 2020 115 3.20 Shares of Total Population Living in Urban Areas and Country’s Largest City, by Global Region, 2018 117 3.21 Share of All Motorized Trips Using Personal Cars, by Global Region 118 B3.8.1 Trips by Public Transportation as a Share of Total Motorized Trips in Selected Cities Worldwide and in the Middle East and North Africa 121 3.22 Energy Use Per Unit of Output and Growth Rate, by World Region 136 3.23 Electric Power Transmission and Distribution Losses, by World Region, 2014 137 3.24 Municipal Waste Burned Per Capita in the Middle East and North Africa, by Economy, 2010 148 3.25 Emissions from Crop Burning in the Middle East and North Africa, by Economy, 2018 150 B3.14.1 PM10 Concentrations in Greater Cairo, Egypt, 2010–16 152 4.1 Annual Per Capita Volume of Plastic Waste Entering the Sea, by World Region, 2010 185 4.2 Top 20 Marine-Plastic Polluting Countries, 2010 186 4.3 Volume of Plastic Debris Entering the Seas from the Middle East and North Africa, by Economy, 2010 and 2025 187 4.4 Average Annual Plastic-Waste Contribution of Countries Bordering the Mediterranean Sea 189 4.5 Average Daily Plastic Waste Generation Per Capita, World Regions and Middle East and North Africa Subregions, 2016 190 4.6 Correlation between GDP Per Capita and Rate of Plastic Waste Generation, 2016 191 4.7 Share of Mismanaged Waste, World Regions and Middle East and North Africa Subregions, 2010 193 Contents xiii 4.8 Correlation between GDP Per Capita and Share of Mismanaged Waste, 2010 194 4.9 Share of Municipal Solid Waste Recycled in the Middle East and North Africa, by Region, Subregion, and Economy, 2020 195 4.10 A Circular Economy for Plastics 215 4.11 Circular Economy Solutions around Consumption, Production, and Management of Plastic Waste, by Instrument Type 219 4.12 Average Daily Waste Generation Per Capita, Globally and in the Middle East and North Africa, by Economy and Subregion, 2016 221 4.13 Shares of Urban and Rural Populations Covered by Waste Collection Services in Selected Middle East and North Africa Economies, 2016 222 4.14 Share of Waste Going into Open Dumps or Unspecified Landfills in the Middle East and North Africa, by Economy, 2016 223 4.15 Price Comparison of Selected SUP Items and Green Alternatives in the Middle East and North Africa, 2020 230 B4.7.1 PET Waste Exports in Tunisia, 2000–18 239 4.16 Principles for Making Recycling Markets More Financially Sustainable 257 5.1 Average Annual Net Coastal Accretion or Erosion, Global Regions and Middle East and North Africa Subregions, 1984–2016 293 5.2 Average Annual Net Coastal Accretion or Erosion in the Middle East and North Africa, by Economy, 1984–2016 294 5.3 Stylized Relationship between Beach Width and Visitors’ Unwillingness to Return 305 5.4 Key Elements of Sustainable Coast Management to Mitigate Coastal-Erosion Effects 310 5.5 Major Factors Affecting Coastal Morphology, Including Coastal Erosion 315 B5.8.1 Foreshore Hard-Defense Structures to Combat Coastal Erosion 334 B5.8.2 Onshore Hard-Defense Structures to Combat Coastal Erosion 335 B5.9.1 Changes in Erosion at Soliman Beach, Tunisia, after Replacing Breakwaters with Groins 340 xiv Blue Skies, Blue Seas Maps 2.1 Annual Percentage Change of Chlorophyll-a Levels in the Mediterranean Sea, 1997–2019 24 3.1 Global Distribution of Ground Monitors for Measuring PM10 and PM2.5 88 3.2 Photovoltaic Power Potential in the Middle East and North Africa: A Solar Resource Map 142 5.1 Average Annual Erosion and Accretion of Selected Beaches Worldwide, 1984–2016 292 5.2 Annual Average Coastal Erosion and Accretion in Tunisia, 2000–20 297 5.3 Annual Average Coastal Erosion and Accretion, Mediterranean Coast of Morocco, 2000–20 299 5.4 Shoreline Management Sub-Plan for Odisha Coast, India, 2018 329 Photos 5.1 Total Shoreline Accretion or Erosion of Chekka and El Heri, Lebanon, 1962–2007 295 5.2 Coastal Erosion at Hammamet Beach, Tunisia, 2006 vs. 2019 298 5.3 Effects of Coastal Erosion on Hotel les Sirenes, Djerba Island, Tunisia, 1992–2019 307 5.4 Hard-Defense Solutions in the Nile Delta Zone in the Arab Republic of Egypt 337 B5.9.1 Soliman Beach, Tunisia, before and after Replacement of Breakwaters with Groins 339 Tables ES.1 Priority Recommendations for Tackling Air Pollution, Marine-Plastics Pollution, and Coastal Erosion in the Middle East and North Africa xxxii 3.1 Estimated Annual Costs of Air Pollution in Middle East and North Africa Economies, 2013 78 3.2 Overview of Policy Options to Reduce Vehicle Emissions 127 3.3 Detailed Description of Policy Options to Reduce Vehicle Emissions 128 3.4 Overview of Policy Options to Reduce Emissions from Industry and Energy Production 146 3.5 Detailed Description of Policy Options to Reduce Emissions from Industry and Energy Production 147 Contents xv 3.6 Overview of Policy Options to Reduce Emissions from Waste Burning and for Other Objectives 162 3.7 Detailed Description of Policy Options to Reduce Emissions from Waste Burning and for Other Objectives 162 4.1 Priority Policy Options to Tackle Marine-Plastic Pollution in the Middle East and North Africa, by Subregion 205 4.2 Costs of Waste Treatment, by Type and Country Income Level, 2016 225 4.3 Plastic-Bag Regulations in Middle East and North Africa Countries, 2018 245 5.1 Extent and Rates of Coastal Erosion in Selected North African Countries 300 5.2 Average Coastal Land Prices in Selected North African Countries, 2020 301 5.3 Direct Economic Costs of Coastal Erosion in Selected North African Countries 302 Acknowledgments This book was prepared by a team led by Martin Philipp Heger (Senior Environmental Economist) and comprising Lukas Vashold (Research Consultant), Anabella Palacios (Urban Planner and Environmental Consultant), Mala Alahmadi (Natural Resources Management Specialist), Marjory-Anne Bromhead (Lead Environmental Consultant), and Marcelo Acerbi (Senior Environmental Specialist). The book has greatly benefited from the strategic guidance of Ayat Soliman (Sustainable Development Regional Director, Middle East and North Africa Region); Karin Kemper (Global Director, Environment, Natural Resources, and Blue Economy Global Practice [ENB GP]); and Lia Sieghart (Manager, ENB GP, Middle East and North Africa Region). In addition, valuable guidance and advice was received from Anna Bjerde (former Strategy and Operations Director, Middle East and North Africa Region) and Stefan Koeberle (Strategy and Operations Director, Middle East and North Africa Region). The team received technical guidance throughout from Dahlia Lotayef and Frank Van Woerden (Lead Environmental Specialists). The team was supported operationally by Nadege Mertus (Program Assistant) and Marie A. F. How Yew Kin (Senior Program Assistant). Technical inputs from the Stanford University Center on Food Security and the Environment (FSE), the European Space Agency (ESA), and the National Oceanography Centre (NOC) of the United Kingdom were incorporated into this report, including contributions from Sam Heft-Neal and Marshall Burke (both from Stanford University) and Christine Sams and Stephen Carpenter (both from the NOC). The sup- port of Christoph Aubrecht (ESA) is greatly appreciated. The team greatly benefited from insightful comments and guidance from internal peer reviewers. Peer reviewers for the report were Urvashi Narain (Lead Economist); Nancy Lozano-Gracia (Senior Economist); Delphine Arri (Senior Environmental Engineer); Nicolas Desramaut (Senior Environmental Engineer); Daniel Lederman (Deputy Chief Economist); Asif Islam (Senior Economist); Lili Mottaghi (Senior Economist); and Ruma Tavorath (Senior Environmental Specialist). xvii xviii Blue Skies, Blue Seas Peer reviewers for the concept note were Nancy Lozano-Gracia (Senior Economist); Anjali Acharya (Senior Environmental Specialist); Ernesto Sánchez-Triana (Global Lead, Pollution Management And Circular Economy); and Stephen Dorey (Public Health Doctor). In addition, the authors received incisive and helpful advice and comments from World Bank colleagues, including Richard Damania (Chief Economist), Roberta Gatti (Chief Economist), Jason Russ (Senior Economist), and Esha Dilip Zaveri (Water Economist). Excellent publication and editorial support were provided by Stan Wanat (Stanford University), Jewel McFadden (Acquisitions Editor), Mary Anderson (Copyeditor), Mary Fisk (Production Editor), and Yaneisy Martinez (Print And Electronic Conversion Coordinator). The team thanks the Pollution Management and Environmental Health (PMEH) Trust Fund (https://www.worldbank.org/en /programs/pollution-management-and-environmental-health -program), the Korea Green Growth Trust Fund (KGGTF) (http://www.kgreengrowthpartnership .org), and the PROBLUE Trust Fund (https://www.worldbank .org/en /programs/problue) for supporting specific activities that have informed this report. Executive Summary INTRODUCTION The economies of the Middle East and North Africa1 have been hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic, but the recovery brings with it an opportunity—to embark on new development paths that are greener, more resilient, and more inclusive. One crucial lesson from the COVID-19 crisis is that prevention is by far superior to any cure. As the Middle East and North Africa moves from the relief phase (where the focus rightly has been on public health and social protection) to the recov- ery phase, expansionary fiscal investments will play a critical role. Fiscal stimuli are crucial to kick-start economic growth (Hepburn et al. 2020). Given scarce fiscal resources, it is critical that the region seizes this window of opportunity to shed the old “brown” growth models and switch to a green, resilient, and inclusive development (GRID) path to help prevent the next crisis brought about by unsustainable economic growth.2 A GRID growth path would have fewer emissions, less environ- mental degradation, and stronger ecosystems, while at the same time boosting resilience and inclusion, if managed properly (World Bank and IMF 2021). To commit to a green recovery from the current pandemic crisis would help stem another advancing crisis—that of environmental degradation and climate change. Growing back greener and more resilient is the key for economies to accelerate growth, restore standards of living to precrisis levels, and get on a sustainable growth path, while also preparing for the new normal as opposed to the world of yester- day that locked them into their traditional growth paths. Whether the region’s economies make the right type of investments now and in the coming years will determine their trajectories—economically, environ- mentally, and socially—for decades to come. xix xx Blue Skies, Blue Seas Building Back Greener: Returns and Trade-Offs A green recovery will bring more jobs and growth than a brown recovery, especially in the long term. Besides avoiding the costs of environmental degradation, a green fiscal stimulus will create more jobs and deliver higher short-term returns per US dollar spent than a brown fiscal stimulus. A recent International Monetary Fund analysis showed that the returns of green investments in spurring gross domestic product (GDP) growth are indeed two to three times greater than the returns on comparable brown investments (Batini et al. 2021). Similarly, in a recent survey of more than 200 experts from finance ministries, central banks, and academia from around the world, the collective suggestion was that a green recovery from COVID-19 would be better not only for the envi- ronment but also for the economy (Hepburn et al. 2020). The fiscal experts argued that a green recovery strategy has higher economic multi- pliers, and they highlighted a number of priority investments, including in natural capital for terrestrial, marine, and coastal ecosystem resilience; restoration of carbon-rich habitats; clean mobility; resource effi- ciency; integrated land management systems; sustainable agriculture; and clean energy production. Although the positive effects of such efforts are apparent, a green transition also comes with some trade-offs, at least temporarily. The decline of traditional brown industries implies that some people will lose their old jobs and that communities may face a temporary shortfall in tax revenue. Following the principles of a just transition, social protection schemes are important during the transition period to a green growth path, as are training and upskilling opportunities as well as support and active promotion of emerging green industries. Human, Physical, and Natural Capital: Gains and Losses In the Middle East and North Africa, residents’ living standards (incomes, human capital, and infrastructure) have improved over the past three decades. Despite variations across economies, on average, real incomes have increased by around 40 percent,3 and the region’s people now live longer and are healthier and better educated than 30 years ago (as detailed in chapter 2). They have better access to water, sanitation, electricity, heating and cooling, transportation infrastructure, the internet, and telecommunications. Not everyone has benefited, however. In countries affected by conflict—such as Libya, the Syrian Arab Republic, and the Republic of Yemen—residents have suffered not only displacement and the Executive Summary xxi tragic loss of family and friends but also a collapse in living standards. Furthermore, challenges to inclusion persist: Youth unemployment is high. For many, work is precarious and informal. And because women in some Middle East and North Africa economies, despite gains in education, lack the same opportunities as men, relatively few women are working outside the home. Although the region’s human and physical capital have improved overall, its natural capital has deteriorated in recent decades. This report reviews the performance of the region’s econo- mies on many environmental indicators, most of which show deterio- ration over the past couple of decades. Emissions increased, terrestrial and marine ecosystems deteriorated, natural habitat was destroyed, marine pollution and ocean acidification increased, and unsustainable water management increased water stress. Some economies and cities have shown positive developments in recent years, but to restore the region’s degraded natural capital on a broader scale, more ambitious steps are necessary. Among other environmental shortfalls, the Middle East and North Africa has been the world’s slowest region in decoupling economic growth from air pollutants, and it has yet to decouple economic growth from carbon emissions. It is the only region in the world that has not decoupled economic growth from CO2, and although the region has decoupled economic growth from some related air pol- lutants, it did so more slowly than any other region (as discussed exten- sively in chapter 2). This adverse trend is driven mainly by the region’s oil exporting economies; however, non-oil exporting economies are also decoupling rather slowly. The economic structure of oil exporters is heavily skewed toward the exploitation, processing, and exportation of their natu- ral resources, resulting in high carbon and air pollutant emissions. Past efforts toward economic diversification often targeted sectors whose adverse effects are similar to those of the oil and gas sector (such as metal extraction and processing) or sectors that depend directly on it (such as the petrochemical sector).4 The abundance of fossil fuels and their subsidized provision (for final consumption as well as feedstock and energy sources for industries) disincentivizes their economical use and impedes the spread of more-sustainable alternatives—for example, public transportation versus personal combustion vehicles or renewable energy sources versus thermal power plants burning fossil fuels—driving up emissions of carbon as well as air pollutants. xxii Blue Skies, Blue Seas “Blue Capital”: Threats to Skies and Seas This report focuses on the Middle East and North Africa’s “blue” natural assets—its skies and seas—which are under severe threat. Specifically, it addresses three of the most significant threats to blue natural capital: • Air pollution levels in the region’s cities are second only to those in South Asia. The average urban resident in the Middle East and North Africa breathes in air that exceeds by more than 10 times the level of pollutants considered safe (figure ES.1, panel a). FIGURE ES.1 Urban Air Pollution, Marine-Plastic Pollution, and Net Coastal Erosion, by Region a. Ambient air pollution in urban areas, 2016a 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 sia nd nd A n d ica sia an st cif ic e a sia a a an t a ca er A a r ca Ea a p i h i P ro l A ric be as r h r u E A f Am ut Sa Af nd E nt ra me ari b o - a e A C idd le rth rth S bSu C in e No NoatL th M b. Plastic waste entering seas per person, 2010 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 sia A n d nd nd ric a sia ran as t cif ic e a sia a a an t a as ic e h A a a a op l A ric h c E r e b e r m t Ea Af A u -S a Af ri d P Eu tr a ib e h h o b an en n A m ar dlC rt t S C d o o r Su ati h e Mi N N L t (continued on next page) Volume of marine-plastic waste Concentration of PM2.5 (µg/m 3) (kg/person/year) Executive Summary xxiii FIGURE ES.1 Urban Air Pollution, Marine-Plastic Pollution, and Net Coastal Erosion, by Region (continued) c. Average annual net coastal erosion, 1984–2016b 1.0 0.5 Accretion 0 Erosion −0.5 −1.0 sia d n d b q ca ia nA st ifi c an ia tio ne s ci l a n re e i s a c p A era n ica ea gh sh r r A ar a Ea m e th ah cfri d P a ro al u a a Eu tr oo p r b A u S n n C o me rib M M o - A a e C A Ca or th S Su b C ulf tin he NG La t Sources: Based on Jambeck et al. 2015; Luijendijk et al. 2018; and 2016 data from the World Health Organization’s Global Health Observatory (https://apps.who.int/gho/data/view.main). Note: “North America” includes Bermuda, Canada, and the United States. Orange bars designate the Middle East and North Africa region or its subregions. a. Particulate matter (PM) is made up of solid or liquid matter associated with Earth’s atmosphere and suspended as atmospheric aerosol (the particulate/air mixture). PM2.5 is a fine particle of 2.5 micrometers. The orange line denotes the World Health Organization (WHO) PM2.5 thresh- old of 5 µg/m3 (micrograms per cubic meter of air). b. In panel c, positive values represent net coastal accretion, and negative values, net coastal erosion. Middle East and North Africa subregions are as follows: (a) Maghreb, including Algeria, Libya, Malta, Morocco, and Tunisia; (b) Mashreq, including Djibouti, the Arab Republic of Egypt, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, the Syrian Arab Republic, West Bank and Gaza, and the Republic of Yemen; and (c) Gulf C ooperation Council, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. • Marine-plastic pollution is a severe and growing problem in the Middle East and North Africa. While there are regions that produce and leak more plastics in total into the seas, such as South and East Asia, MENA has the highest per capita footprint of plastics used and leaking into the region’s seas and oceans. The Mediterranean is among the world’s most plastic-polluted seas, with as much plastic flowing into it each year as the volume of fish taken out from the two most commonly caught species.5 • Coastal erosion rates of the Maghreb’s coasts are among the fastest in the world—second, again, only to South Asian coasts (figure ES.1, panel c). Coastal erosion rates in some Middle East and North Africa economies exceed the global average (7 millimeters per year) by almost 10 times. Average shoreline change (m/year) xxiv Blue Skies, Blue Seas WHAT IS AT STAKE? Health and Livelihood The depletion of blue assets has reversed some of the region’s improvements in human and economic development, threatening lives and livelihoods. In the Middle East and North Africa, ambient air pollution (AAP) costs the average resident at least 60 days of illness over their lifespan and caused 270,000 premature deaths in 2019. And the expo- sure of pregnant women to periods of elevated AAP has been shown to increase the risk of stunted growth in children. In the Mediterranean, one of the world’s most marine-plastic-polluted seas, plastic debris damages marine life (plants and animals) as well as human life, since microplastics (very small fragments of plastics) have been found in several human organs and are sus- pected to lead to significant health problems.6 (The health effects of air and water pollution are further detailed in chapters 3 and 4.) Coastal erosion meanwhile relentlessly threatens to devour entire beaches and thereby the livelihoods of millions of people dependent on coastal tourism, fisheries, and related activities. The tourism industry, often focused on beach tourism and its connected value chains, is a major source of employment and accounts for 10 percent or more of GDP in several of the region’s economies, for example, in Morocco and Tunisia (as discussed in chapter 5). Economic Growth The environmental degradation of skies and seas is estimated to cost more than 3 percent of GDP in some of the region’s economies. A review in this report (chapter 3) shows that the annual cost of AAP in Middle East and North Africa economies averages 2 percent of GDP— ranging from around 0.4 percent of GDP in Qatar to more than 3 percent in the Arab Republic of Egypt, Lebanon, and the Republic of Yemen. Productivity falls if residents cannot work after they or their family mem- bers fall ill from air pollution, and health care costs can be a substantial burden on both individuals and governments. In addition, coastal erosion destroys sectors such as tourism and fishing that rely on intact beaches and clean seas. The average annual costs of coastal erosion are estimated to be 0.6 percent of GDP in the Maghreb (the subregion most afflicted by coastal erosion), ranging from 0.2 percent of GDP in Algeria to 2.8 percent in Tunisia (see chapter 5). Finally, the annual costs of marine-plastic pollution amount to around 0.8 percent of GDP on aver- age, reaching more than 2 percent of GDP in countries such as Djibouti, Tunisia, and the Republic of Yemen (see chapter 4). Executive Summary xxv Polluted air, marine spaces full of plastics, and changing coastal landscapes all decrease the efficiency of important economic sectors and make the region less attractive. AAP has been shown to decrease the energy yields of photovoltaic solar panels (for which the region holds great prospects) and also decreases agricultural yields, both by reducing workers’ productivity and, through its impact on radiation, by affecting temperature or precipitation. Air pollution can also decrease a city’s attractiveness to tourists and its competitiveness by hemming its growth in population and value added. Marine-plastic pollution reduces fishery yields; damages ships and their equipment, increasing operational delays; and contributes to blocked drainages, thus increasing inunda- tion risks and, potentially, disease outbreaks. Changes in the coastal landscape—mainly in the form of erosion but also accretion—impair the functioning of coastal infrastructure (for example, by damaging or blocking navigation paths near ports), and their impacts on biodiversity also have repercussions on coastal activities. The gradual disappearance, and the ever-higher pollution, of the region’s beaches reduces their attractiveness, lowers tourism revenues, and decreases the competitive- ness of coastal cities. Trade and Competitiveness In a world striving for net-zero emissions and phasing out fossil fuels, banking on green investments is critical for the Middle East and North Africa. It would allow the region to transition gradually to the “new normal” climate economy of the future instead of being stuck in the unsustainable economy of the past. Major economies like China, the European Union (EU), and the United States are pushing for substantial cuts in carbon emissions all along their value chains, with the EU and the US striving to be carbon neutral by 2050 and China by 2060. Overreliance on carbon-intensive fossil fuel industries is in direct contrast to global efforts toward phasing out fossil fuels and achieving net-zero emissions growth and can hence restrain the future economic performance of the Middle East and North Africa’s economies. Even among the region’s oil exporting countries—some of which are more exposed than others to the direct effects of trade measures such as carbon border adjustment mecha- nisms, as envisaged in the European Green Deal—the indirect effects of decreasing oil prices resulting from lower global demand can be substantial. Green growth is hence imperative, not only to reduce the current social and economic costs of burning fossil fuels—costs that air pollution is already imposing—but also to prepare the region’s economies for the future. xxvi Blue Skies, Blue Seas Sticking to the traditional “brown growth” paths will leave the Middle East and North Africa at risk to end up with stranded assets and outdated business models. Where fiscal space allows it, coun- tries globally are ramping up investments as stimulus to overcome the economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The Middle East and North Africa is no exception. The investments made now and in the coming years in response to this crisis will shape the trajectories of the region’s economies for decades in terms of both economic advance- ment and environmental sustainability. Directing these investments toward sectors that will likely be at odds with global decarbonization trends is not prudent. The EU’s recovery program plans to allocate 37 percent of its €800 billion stimulus for climate-friendly invest- ments (IMF 2021). Similarly, the United States plans for large green- infrastructure investments as a response to the pandemic.7 With the global push to decarbonize value chains and trade—for example, through the European Commission’s proposed introduction of a carbon border adjustment mechanism—it becomes ever more important for Middle East and North Africa economies to increase efforts to avoid ending up with stranded assets and outdated business models. This is especially true for the economies strongly relying on fossil fuel exports, considering that large shares of fossil fuels must remain unextracted to meet the 2015 Paris Agreement targets for limiting global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius, preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius (Welsby et al. 2021). Tackling air pollution, marine-plastic pollution, and coastal erosion will deliver considerable benefits, whether from an envi- ronmental, social, or economic perspective. Given the costs that these issues impose and the fact that climate change will exacerbate many of their adverse effects, setting changes in motion toward more sustain- able management of blue assets is paramount. The restoration of the region’s skies and seas will bring benefits on many fronts but also require strong policy responses to the various factors driving their degradation. Therefore, it is necessary to identify those factors and formulate appro- priate strategies to get a grip on them. WHY ARE THE REGION’S BLUE ASSETS DETERIORATING? The Middle East and North Africa’s blue natural capital is deterio- rating for numerous reasons, many of which necessitate a collective answer from public authorities. Among these reasons, the region’s economies lag in a range of areas when benchmarked against interna- tional best practices. Problematic areas include sending the wrong price Executive Summary xxvii signals by subsidizing polluting behavior; setting weak rules for limiting polluting activities as well as for enforcement of those rules; and lacking comprehensive management plans, whether for waste treatment or coastal development. These weaknesses both perpetuate and exacerbate the degradation of the region’s blue assets. Low environmental standards in the transportation and indus- try sectors as well as inefficient use of resources and burning of waste contribute to the continued pollution of the region’s air. Outdated vehicle fleets, often lenient emission standards,8 low-quality fuel that is often heavily subsidized and the cheapest globally, and inadequate public transportation all increase the transportation sector’s contribution to lower air quality. Industrial emissions are often not well regulated, with the region’s economies lagging in air quality laws and regulations (UNEP 2017).9 The Middle East and North Africa uses a large amount of energy, of which more than 95 percent is derived from fossil fuels (Menichetti et al. 2019), to produce a given amount of eco- nomic output. As for energy intensity, the region is moving in the wrong direction: the Middle East and North Africa is the world’s only region where energy use per output (BTUs per ton of output) has increased in the past three decades. Furthermore, clean-production incentives are largely absent, with the Middle East and North Africa the only region that has neither put nor initiated a price on carbon in the form of a car- bon tax or an emissions trading system (World Bank 2021). Additionally, regulations regarding waste burning (both municipal and agricultural) are often poorly enforced, and the practice is still common in some Middle East and North Africa economies, contributing to the deteriora- tion of the region’s skies. Weak solid waste management (SWM) in the Middle East and North Africa is a major reason why so much plastic is flowing into the region’s seas. Especially in the Maghreb and the Mashreq subre- gions, a large share of waste (including plastics) is mismanaged. These deficiencies not only have an adverse impact on marine plastics10 but also have important ramifications for air quality because of uncontrolled waste burning. Low recycling rates and few alternatives for reusing plastics help exacerbate the plastic tide. Price discrepancies between plastics and their greener alternatives as well as between virgin and recycled plastics are major reasons for the low adoption of these envi- ronmentally less harmful options. These discrepancies are driven largely by heavy subsidization of feedstock and necessary energy (also derived mostly from fossil fuels) for petrochemicals, first and foremost in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Inadequate management of coastal assets, exacerbated by rapid expansion of development along the coasts, has increased erosion xxviii Blue Skies, Blue Seas of the region’s shorelines. Pressures from natural forces contributing to erosion, such as the frequency and intensity of coastal floods, will increase as a consequence of climate change. Ill-conceived adaptations have also created certain coastal erosion hot spots in the Maghreb. For example, although coastal protection infrastructure may protect a specific beach, it may obstruct the sedimentation flow down current and causes coastal erosion there. At the same time, the current absence of knowledge about the state and evolution of the region’s coasts impedes proper management. Consequently, despite some progress, most Middle East and North Africa economies lack comprehensive frameworks for coastal development. Strong urbanization pressures in coastal cities have contributed to the fragmentation of coastal areas and their management in an unintegrated fashion. Furthermore, watershed and river management (including dam construction without sufficiently considering its impact on sediment discharge) has reduced sediment transport to the coastline, exacerbating coastal erosion.11 Thus, numerous environmental challenges persist, and address- ing them is imperative to conserve and restore the Middle East and North Africa’s blue natural assets. Understanding these challenges and providing a way forward to build and strengthen the contribution of blue capital to the economy and human well-being will play a key role in the region’s transformation toward a greener, more resilient, and inclusive development path. Although this path may be different for individual economies given their heterogeneous starting points and levels of devel- opment, it is also important to note that to be successful in restoring the blue assets, regional cooperation among economies is vital. The trans- boundary nature of air pollution, marine-plastics pollution, and coastal erosion highlights the need for regional cooperation on these issues (not to mention the positive knowledge spillovers from such cooperation). WHAT SHOULD MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA ECONOMIES DO? The multifaceted problems affecting the region’s skies and seas require integrated solutions that this report identifies as the “4 I’s”: Inform stakeholders, provide Incentives, strengthen Institutions, and Invest in abatement options. Each of these objectives is crucial for successfully tackling air pollution, marine-plastic pollution, and coastal erosion, as follows: • Informing the policy discussion across stakeholders (such as the private sector, nongovernmental organizations, and civil society organizations as well as across government ministries) with evidence about the Executive Summary xxix sources of negative externalities is imperative while also helping to avoid frictions between them where possible. Similarly, the broad and frequent dissemination of information to the public is important to increase awareness and nurture demand for change. • Providing incentives to the private and public sectors as well as house- holds—whether by increasing prices for polluting activities or by pro- viding subsidies for greener alternatives—is a viable way of nudging actors to change their behavior and switch to more sustainable p atterns of production, consumption, and disposal. • Strengthening institutions is important to limit and lower air and plastic pollution as well as to manage and mitigate the uncontrolled develop- ment and erosion of the Middle East and North Africa coasts. This effort includes the development and implementation of legally backed, clearly communicated regulations and mandates; clearly defined competencies for the ministries and authorities enforcing them; and provision of a transparent legal framework for some of the incentive schemes. • Making sizable investments can tackle the respective degradation of the region’s skies and seas in certain areas, including improvement of SWM, expansion of renewable energy production and public trans- portation infrastructure, and promotion of sustainable options (such as nature-based solutions) to combat coastal erosion. If residents of the Middle East and North Africa have access to good-quality information about degradation, it will raise public awareness and build stakeholder ownership for policy change— both key elements in successful solutions. More broadly, ensuring open access to information is important in building public trust, mak- ing it a fundamental element of a functioning social contract between government and people (World Bank 2019). Appropriate collection of environmental data requires investments not only in physical infra- structure (for example, ground monitoring stations for air pollution) but also in the use of technological advancements. The latter means training staff in the necessary skills, such as working with remote sens- ing data to detect coastal erosion patterns or conducting life-cycle analyses of plastic products. Informing about air pollution. Even though many Middle East and North Africa economies monitor at least some air pollutants, many do not make this information publicly available in an easily comprehensible way. However, some have made progress in this regard. The United Arab Emirates, for example, now provides real-time information on air quality, with guidance on how to minimize pollution on the worst days. Public awareness campaigns should include messaging on health and other negative economic outcomes—thus conveying the importance xxx Blue Skies, Blue Seas of behavioral change; providing a rationale for new regulatory require- ments; and also addressing younger residents, as the Qualit’Air program in Morocco did with a dedicated online learning platform. Raising awareness about marine plastics. Residents need to understand the consequences of plastic pollution, not only for beaches, fisheries, and marine wildlife but also on drainage systems and pub- lic health. This will help build consensus for change, including for restriction of plastics use and the broader adoption of recycling. To that end, the Tunisian National Waste Management Agency, in cooperation with the Sweepnet network, set up a dedicated communications and awareness office together with awareness-raising programs. It is also necessary to work with the plastics industry to jointly develop solutions and reach the youth to educate them about the consequences of exces- sive plastic consumption and inadequate disposal. This can be achieved through specialized campaigns on social media. One such effort is Jordan’s “One Dead Sea Is Enough” initiative under the EU-funded SwitchMed project, which aims to induce a switch to a circular economy all along the southern and eastern Mediterranean. Transparency about coastal erosion. In coastal areas, residents, municipalities, and affected industries need information on the processes behind erosion. This is key to building acceptance for policy changes that may involve restrictions on future development. Integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) processes also require open and transparent discussions of the impacts on different stakeholders. Strengthening information about the sources of all three environmental issues is an important precursor to effective policy responses. High uncertainty remains about various drivers’ contributions to the degradation of the skies and seas on a local scale. Which sector contributes how much to the pollution of a city’s skies? Which cities, industries, and types of plastic products are the major culprits for the continuing flow of plastics into a subregion’s seas? And which drivers—marine or terrestrial—cause the most coastal erosion? Obtaining clarity about these matters requires deep analyses in the form of source-apportionment studies for air pollution, life-cycle and flow analyses for plastic items, and geomorphological as well as wave- dynamics and sediment-transport studies for coastal erosion. Based on the information derived from these analyses and studies, locally specific policies can be tailored and adopted. Given the transboundary nature of cause-and-effect in the degradation of skies and seas, increasing regional cooperation is paramount. The sharing of knowledge and data across countries as well as across agencies within countries is important to guide policy makers in selecting the most effective policies. Executive Summary xxxi “NO-REGRETS” POLICIES: A PRIORITY LIST Even though source information is a crucial prerequisite for choos- ing the most effective policy mix, governments can readily take several priority measures to improve the management of their blue assets—their skies and seas. Just as the issues have multisectoral causes, the solutions must be multisectoral as well. Even as many questions persist about the drivers of negative externalities in many cities and countries— and related analytical work must be continuously supported—a set of criti- cal, no-regrets policies can be implemented now to hit the ground running. This Executive Summary briefly describes these priority policies, but the report’s main chapters provide more information, including discussions of the distributional implications of certain measures and detailed reviews of a plethora of additional policies. Table ES.1 summarizes some of the most critical measures, highlighting their main objectives and time horizons in the respective problem areas. As it shows, some of these priority recom- mendations apply to more than one sector, implying possible cross-bene- fits or similarities between them. Given these synergies, cooperation across sectors is highly desirable to increase the measures’ efficiency and effectiveness. Air Pollution Regional modeling shows that, for the Middle East and North Africa’s residents, the largest contributors to ambient air pollution are (a) road vehicles, (b) municipal waste burning, and (c) industrial processes. In addition, agricultural waste burning is a key source (espe- cially in North Africa) as well as power plant emissions (especially in the Middle East), as further discussed in chapter 3. Urban Transportation In cities throughout the Middle East and North Africa, urban trans- portation is a significant contributor to air pollution. Improving urban planning and traffic management and supporting modal shifts from motorized personal transportation to public transportation (also support- ing the greening of public transportation) and to nonmotorized personal transportation are key steps to take. Increasing fuel prices, especially in countries where the prices are extremely low (because of existing subsidies), is another critical step because it incentivizes people to use fuel-efficient or noncombustion cars and also to switch to public transportation and nonmotorized options. Several economies in the Middle East and North Africa have initiated such reforms even though some of them xxxii Blue Skies, Blue Seas TABLE ES.1 Priority Recommendations for Tackling Air Pollution, Marine-Plastics Pollution, and Coastal Erosion in the Middle East and North Africa OBJECTIVE (4 I’S) AIR POLLUTION MARINE PLASTICS COASTAL EROSION • Create public awareness to incentivize behavior with fewer negative environmental effects and to foster demand for interventions • Strengthen source information to help design appropriate interventions • Consult and plan jointly with the private sector, NGOs, civil society organizations, and across ministries to develop Inform solutions stakeholders • Disseminate information frequently, better enabling individuals to change behavior so they can avoid exposure • Reduce fuel subsidies, while at the same time making provisions for compensation mechanisms, such as reducing income taxes or social transfers Provide • Create markets for emissions and/or pollution (through ETS), and incentives strengthen recylable-plastic markets (to make prices competitive with virgin plastics) • Support greener alternatives (for example, through subsidies for cleaner technologies and alternatives, support of nature-based solutions) • Manage and control polluting practices (for example, usage of certain Strengthen SUPs, fuels, and technologies) • Mandate coastal zoning and integrated institutions • Mandate targets (for example, recycling targets and emission coastal zone management thresholds) • Install emission control • Support R&D for new plastic technology (for example, fume • Implement nature-based solutions alternatives scrubbers) (for example, construction of wind fences, restoration of dune vegetation, • Facilitate uptake of clean • Implement marine cleanup and cultivation of seagrass and production and resource technologies mangroves) Invest in efficiency technology abatement options • Strengthen SWM infrastructure (for collection, treatment, and disposal) • Switch to renewable energy production • Expand and “green” the public transportation infrastructure Timeline for implementation short term (0–2 years) medium term (2–5 years) long term (5–10 years) Source: World Bank. Note: Green shading indicates short-term measures with an expected implementation horizon of up to 2 years; orange shading, medium-term measures with an implementation horizon of 2–5 years; and blue shading, longer-term measures with an implementation horizon of 5–10 years. ETS = emissions trading system; NGOs = nongovernmental organizations; R&D = research and development; SUPs = single-use plastics; SWM = solid waste management. Executive Summary xxxiii unfortunately backtracked partially during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, it is also important to consider the adverse impacts of such reforms on low-income households and critical to make timely provisions for compensatory measures, such as reducing income taxes or increasing social transfers to those affected most. Expanding public transportation and raising fuel prices (by removing fossil fuel subsidies) have both proven effective in reducing air pollution levels. Additional key measures are (improved) monitoring and inspection schemes for combustion vehicles, low- emission zones, and fuel-efficiency and emission-control mandates—as demonstrated in Tehran with successes in reducing the concentrations of harmful air pollutants. Additionally, reducing the number of internal combustion engine vehicles in cities should be advanced and the switch to low-emission alternatives supported. An important first step is to induce such a switch for public transportation fleets like the adoption of electric buses, as was done in some of the region’s cities such as Doha, Marrakesh, or Tunis. Municipal and Agricultural Waste Burning Municipal waste burning, still practiced in and around many of the region’s cities, must be tackled. The priority measures center around strengthening municipal SWM, reducing waste generation, and moving to a “circular economy”—an approach in which products are sustainably managed throughout their life cycles, from production to disposal or reuse. The region has made great progress in curbing agricultural waste burning. For example, over the past couple of years, strengthening regulation, enforcing penalties, and creating prices and markets for agri- cultural residue have proven to be key in reducing agricultural waste burning in Egypt. Industrial and Energy Emissions The regionwide adoption of best-in-class emissions control technology is crucial. There is large scope for the expansion of end-of-pipe emissions reduction programs paired with continuous monitoring schemes and regulations mandating emission caps. Reducing emissions is done most cost effectively by adopting an emissions trading system (ETS), paired with a regulatory cap as imple- mented in the EU ETS. Such cap-and-trade programs will create important incentives for resource efficiency and switching away from fossil fuels. Although no examples of such a system currently exist in the Middle East and North Africa, there are promising international xxxiv Blue Skies, Blue Seas examples such as the recent introduction of a cap-and-trade system directly targeting air pollutants in Gujarat, India. Switching to renew- able energy sources is a crucial prerequisite for a transition to a less carbon-intensive energy sector and requires investments in energy generation, storage, and transmission infrastructure. The Middle East and North Africa region is highly suited for the adoption of renewable energy technologies, and projects are under way from Morocco all the way to the GCC countries. Marine-Plastic Pollution For reducing marine-plastic debris, improving SWM, including collection and safe disposal, is a key step. This will require adequate financing mechanisms for public utilities and building capacity in local utilities management. In parallel, work on reducing the generation of waste—and moving toward a circular economy with less waste and keeping resources in continuous use—is the end goal. Switching to a circular economy will require a bouquet of policies ranging from charg- ing consumer fees for single-use plastics (SUPs), to bans on extremely harmful types of plastics, to working with producers on reuse options and subsidizing alternatives (such as bioplastics). Morocco introduced an eco- tax for producers of plastic products. And producers of plastic alternatives are gaining some foothold in the United Arab Emirates, where Abu Dhabi is also moving forward strongly in banning SUP items. All these measures need support from carefully managed information campaigns. The price of fossil fuels that are not only the feedstocks of plas- tics but are also burned to create the energy to make plastics must be increased. Otherwise, environmentally friendly alternatives and recycling options cannot compete in the market. Here, cross-benefits for air pollution control could arise from reforming fossil fuel subsidies. Finally, beach cleanups may appear to be only a drop in the bucket, but they are an extremely effective approach to mitigation because plastics that accrue on shores often are dragged into the ocean by waves, where they last for decades or end up in the bellies of animals that in turn are eaten by humans. Along with directly reducing the amount of plastic ending up in marine spaces, such cleanups also raise awareness for the issue, as recognized by groups such as the Ervis Foundation, which organizes such events, as well as with the help of a mobile app to better reach the youth in the United Arab Emirates. Executive Summary xxxv Coastal Erosion For reducing coastal erosion, development of multistakeholder mech- anisms for ICZM is important because there are many competing interests for using the coast. Setting up such collaborative ICZM pro- cesses—with a focus on land-use planning—is a particularly critical step for Middle East and North Africa economies, which lag in this respect, espe- cially for parts of the coast that have not yet been developed. The recently introduced coastal management plan in the Rabat-Salé-Kénitra region in northern Morocco provides a regional example of how such schemes can benefit coastal areas. For parts of the coasts that have already been developed, measures must be taken to mitigate further losses and, in some cases, to restore beaches. Ecosystem restoration and nature-based solutions (NBS) using locally adapted species (of seagrass, seaweed, man- groves, corals, or dune grasses) are often no-regret solutions. In addition to regulating coastal erosion by controlling floods and storm surges, NBS such as coral reef or seagrass rehabilitation have significant co-benefits— for example, by capturing “blue carbon”12 and offering a habitat for fish or bird species. Egypt and Saudi Arabia are implementing large-scale reforestation programs for mangrove woods along the Red Sea, while artificial reefs have been used in Morocco. Their multiple benefits make these solutions particularly interesting for combating coastal erosion. Time Horizons for Change The time horizon for implementing priority measures varies: some measures are realizable in the short term, while others will take lon- ger to unfold. Recognizing these differences is important when selecting policies to tackle a particular issue in a timely manner. However, kicking off the process for implementing measures whose results reveal themselves only with a certain lag is important. In this sense, information measures can be approached right away, together with certain regulations and closer cooperation across ministries and the private sector. Other regulations such as the creation of markets for emissions or the strengthening of recy- clable-plastic markets as well as the introduction of ICZM may need more time. This longer time frame stems from the necessity for stocktaking before their introduction and the need for some form of transition period during which affected parties can adjust. Hence, realizing large-scale xxxvi Blue Skies, Blue Seas infrastructure projects—such as strengthening SWM, switching to renew- able energy sources, and launching public transportation schemes—have a longer-term horizon. But the preparations should start immediately. CONCLUSION Restoring the Middle East and North Africa’s blue skies and blue seas will benefit not only the environment but also the health, liveli- hoods, and incomes of residents. This report identifies and discusses the human and economic impact of blue-asset degradation and proposes solutions to support the transition to greener, more inclusive, more resilient growth paths. In addition to reducing the cost of environmental degradation, green growth paths would have higher economic multipliers in job creation and economic development. Swift action is imperative in the face of the current challenges posed by the COVID-19 crisis, but the region’s economies should not lose sight of the much greater chal- lenge posed by climate change and environmental degradation. In a world that painfully starts to feel the consequences of a warming planet, moving toward less-harmful economic models, including less reliance on fossil fuels such as oil and gas, becomes crucial. Directing investments at carbon-intensive activities that will face ever-growing pressure in the coming decades is unsustainable from both the economic and environmental perspectives. Hence, even though setting the stage for a green transition that is just and that prepares the Middle East and North Africa for the challenges ahead is demanding and will not come without some adjustment costs, not doing so will likely have an even larger price tag. The region’s leaders have the opportunity now to create jobs and growth with green investments, diversify their economies, and thereby make the region a more attractive place to live and work for today’s residents and for future generations. Just as past decisions have shaped the region’s current development, so will the actions taken by policy makers today shape these economies’ trajectories for the coming decades. Laying the groundwork to address future challenges posed by environmental degradation, climate change, and a world striving to mitigate it is imperative. NOTES 1. In this report, 20 economies are considered to be part of the Middle East and North Africa region, following the definition of the World Bank Group (except for Israel, which is excluded for the purposes of this report). Executive Summary xxxvii Because of the region’s heterogeneity, the report sometimes clusters these economies into three subregions: (a) Maghreb, comprising Algeria, Libya, Malta, Morocco, and Tunisia; (b) Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), compris- ing Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates; and (c) Mashreq, comprising Djibouti, the Arab Republic of Egypt, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, the Syrian Arab Republic, West Bank and Gaza, and the Republic of Yemen. 2. Policies referred to as being “green” in this report are those with the potential to reduce long-run greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, while “brown” policies are likely to increase net GHG emissions. Similarly, “green growth,” “blue growth,” or similar terms refer to increases in output and incomes that are accompanied by reductions in emissions and environmental degradation of blue assets—the region’s skies and seas. Conversely, “brown growth” or “brown recovery” refer to activities that foster economic growth at the likely expense of increased GHG emissions and intensified degradation of the region’s natural capital. 3. Growth rates differed between Middle East and North Africa subregions. On average, real incomes rose by around 40 percent—by more than 50 percent in the Maghreb and Mashreq subregions and by about 11 percent in the GCC countries, albeit from a much higher starting point (Human Development Data Center, United Nations Development Programme, http://hdr.undp.org/en/data). 4. These sectors are directly dependent on low input prices, both in the form of feedstock (for example, oil and gas for petrochemicals) and energy (predominantly derived from fossil fuels); are high-emitting sectors given their high energy intensity; and also contribute to environmental degrada- tion (for example, by contributing to plastics pollution in the region’s seas), as examined in chapter 4. 5. These fish species are the European pilchard (Sardina pilchardus) and the European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus). 6. Research on the public health effects of microplastics is emerging quickly but is still in its infancy, and although many worrisome findings are beginning to emerge—such as discovery of microplastics in human placentas and an array of other human organs—microplastics have yet to be conclusively linked to diseases. 7. The US green-infrastructure investments recently enacted include the modernization of bus and rail fleets (including, for example, replacement of school buses with zero- and low-emission alternatives); large-scale expansions of clean energy transmission networks, including half a million electric vehicle chargers; and environmental remediation measures such as cleaning up pollution from former industrial and energy sites and cap- ping orphaned gas wells. The plans also include substantial support for restoring, monitoring, and researching forests—recognizing them as important infrastructure and endangered by increasingly widespread forest fires. 8. A global analysis of vehicle emission standards showed that not a single Middle East and North Africa economy requires new vehicles to adhere to international best practices regarding European emission standards, with some countries such as Algeria or Tunisia lacking any regulations in this respect at all as of February 2019 (Abdoun 2019). xxxviii Blue Skies, Blue Seas 9. A 2017 United Nations Environment Programme report finds that only 2 out of the 18 Middle East and North Africa economies surveyed have specific air quality laws and regulations in place (UNEP 2017). However, several have at least defined ambient air quality standards, which is a sign of progress. Furthermore, the report notes that only four of the region’s economies have implemented clean production incentives for industries. 10. Recent studies have shown that the vast majority of plastic that ends up in the seas is from land-based activities as opposed to marine sources such as fishing equipment. These studies also highlight the high share of single-use plastics (SUPs) that end up in the world’s oceans and seas (Morales-Caselles et al. 2021). 11. This has been especially the case in North African countries, as in Egypt’s Nile delta or the Medjerda River flowing into the Gulf of Tunis (Hzami et al. 2021). 12. The oceans are major sinks of carbon dioxide and annually store amounts of carbon comparable to those stored by terrestrial ecosystems. REFERENCES Abdoun, A. 2019. “Global Fuel Quality Developments.” Presentation to the 12th Global Partners Meeting of the Partnership for Clean Fuels and Vehicles (PCFV), Paris, March 5–6. Batini, N., M. Di Serio, M. Fragetta, G. Melina, and A. Waldron. 2021. “Building Back Better: How Big Are Green Spending Multipliers?” Working Paper 2021/087, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC. Hepburn, C., B. O’Callaghan, N. Stern, J. Stiglitz, and D. Zenghelis. 2020. “Will COVID-19 Fiscal Recovery Packages Accelerate or Retard Progress on Climate Change?” Oxford Review of Economic Policy 36 (Suppl 1): S359–S381. Hzami, A., E. Heggy, O. Amrouni, G. Mahé, M. Maanan, and S. Abdeljaouad. 2021. “Alarming Coastal Vulnerability of the Deltaic and Sandy Beaches of North Africa.” Scientific Reports 11 (1): 1–15. IMF (International Monetary Fund). 2021. “Reaching Net Zero Emissions.” G-20 Background Note, IMF, Washington, DC. Jambeck, J. R., R. Geyer, C. Wilcox, T. R. Siegler, M. Perryman, A. Andrady, R. Narayan, and K. Lavender Law. 2015. “Plastic Waste Inputs from Land into the Ocean.” Science 347 (6223): 768–71. Luijendijk, A., G. Hagenaars, R. Ranasinghe, F. Baart, G. Donchyts, and S. Aarninkhof. 2018. “The State of the World’s Beaches.” Scientific Reports 8 (1): 1–11. Menichetti, E., A. El Gharras, B. Duhamel, and S. Karbuz. 2019. “The MENA Region in the Global Energy Markets.” In Foreign Policy Review Special Issue, “MENARA: Middle East and North Africa Regional Architecture”: 75–119. Institute for Foreign Affairs and Trade, Budapest. Executive Summary xxxix Morales-Caselles, C., J. Viejo, E. Martí, D. González-Fernández, H. Pragnell- Raasch, J. I. González-Gordillo, E. Montero, et al. 2021. “An Inshore– Offshore Sorting System Revealed from Global Classification of Ocean Litter.” Nature Sustainability 4 (6): 484–93. UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme). 2017. “Middle East & North Africa: Actions Taken by Governments to Improve Air Quality.” Report, UNEP, Nairobi, Kenya. Welsby, D., J. Price, S. Pye, and P. Ekins. 2021. “Unextractable Fossil Fuels in a 1.5°C World.” Nature 597 (7875): 230–34. World Bank. 2019. “Our Expanded Strategy.” MENA Region Brief, October 1. World Bank, Washington, DC. https://www.worldbank.org/en/region/mena /brief/our-new-strategy. World Bank. 2021. State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2021. Washington, DC: World Bank. World Bank and IMF (International Monetary Fund). 2021. “From COVID-19 Crisis Response to Resilient Recovery: Saving Lives and Livelihoods while Supporting Green, Resilient, and Inclusive Development (GRID).” Document No. DC2021-0004 for the April 9, 2021, Meeting of the Development Committee (Joint Ministerial Committee of the Boards of Governors of the Bank and the Fund on the Transfer of Real Resources to Developing Countries), Washington, DC. https://www.devcommittee.org/sites/dc /files/download/Documents/2021-03/DC2021-0004%20Green%20 Resilient%20final.pdf. Abbreviations AAP ambient air pollution ANGed National Agency for Waste Management (Tunisia) APAL Agency for Coastal Protection and Planning (Tunisia) AQM air quality management BTU British thermal unit CO carbon monoxide COPD chronic obstructive pulmonary disease CO2 carbon dioxide DRS deposit-refund scheme EIA environmental impact assessment EPA Environmental Protection Agency (US) EPAP Egyptian Pollution Abatement Programme EPR extended producer responsibility ESA European Space Agency ESIA environmental and social impact assessment ETS emissions trading system EU European Union GCC Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and UAE) GDP gross domestic product GHG greenhouse gas GRID green, resilient, and inclusive development GVC global value chain HERRCO Hellenic Recovery Recycling Corporation (Greece) ICZM integrated coastal zone management IHME Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (UN) LEPAP Lebanon Environmental Pollution Abatement Project LEZ low emission zone µg/m3 micrograms per cubic meter of air MW megawatts NBS nature-based solution(s) xli xlii Blue Skies, Blue Seas NEEP National Energy Efficiency Program (Saudi Arabia) NGO nongovernmental organization NOX nitrogen oxide NO2 nitrogen dioxide PET polyethylene terephthalate PM particulate matter PM2.5 fine particulate matter (2.5 microns or less in diameter) PM10 fine particulate matter (10 microns or less in diameter) PNL National Coastal Plan (Morocco) ppm parts per million RCP Representative Concentration Pathway (repeated in para) R&D research and development ROPME Regional Organization for the Protection of the Marine Environment RSA ROPME Sea Area SABIC Saudi Basic Industries Corporation SEEP Saudi Energy Efficiency Center (Saudi Arabia) SLR sea level rise SMEs small and medium enterprises SOE state-owned enterprise SO2 sulfur dioxide SRL regional coast management plan (Morocco) SUP single-use plastic SWM solid waste management UN United Nations UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNEP United Nations Environment Programme WHO World Health Organization YLD years lived with disability Country abbreviations ARE United Arab Emirates BHR Bahrain DJI Djibouti DZA Algeria EGY Egypt, Arab Rep. IRN Iran, Islamic Rep. IRQ Iraq JOR Jordan KWT Kuwait LBN Lebanon LBY Libya MAR Morocco MLT Malta Abbreviations xliii OMN Oman PSE West Bank and Gaza QAT Qatar SAU Saudi Arabia SYR Syrian Arab Republic TUN Tunisia YEM Yemen CHAPTER 1 Introduction OVERVIEW Economies in the Middle East and North Africa have a window of oppor- tunity to make their economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic a green one while tackling two major challenges ahead: environmental degradation and climate change. This chapter briefly lays out the struc- ture of this report on the issues that the region’s “blue” assets—namely, its skies and seas—face. The region’s various forms of natural capital are under many pressures, but the report focuses on three particularly urgent ones: air pollution, marine-plastic pollution, and coastal erosion. The pandemic and the economic crisis it induced have shown the world, and also the Middle East and North Africa, that these varying shocks can hit in ways both unexpected and unprecedented. Although the impacts and consequences of these shocks are still playing out, it is important to recognize the other crisis that has been unfolding more quietly but steadily over recent decades: the region’s environmental degradation. Additionally, the looming threat of climate change is becoming clearer as it exacerbates some of pollution’s adverse effects on the region’s natural assets and threatens widespread social, health, and economic devastation. The recovery from COVID-19 provides the Middle East and North Africa with a unique set of circumstances to mount a concomitant response to these next looming crises—and brings the region to a cross- roads where some important decisions must be made: Will the region’s economies continue down the “brown growth” path that has led to the 1 2 Blue Skies, Blue Seas degradation of most of their natural assets, a deterioration in public health, and unsustainable fiscal budgets? Or will they reset their growth strategies and move toward greener, more resilient, and more inclusive development? This report argues that rebuilding better now can lay the foundation for the region to abandon its unsustainable growth paths from the past and emerge as a more livable region that offers its residents brighter prospects for the future. Highlighting the already advanced degradation in some areas, it also provides recommendations on how to tackle and even reverse some of the harms from these issues. “BLUE” CAPITAL AND THREE CORE ISSUES This report focuses on “blue” forms of natural capital—skies and seas— hence, the title of this Blue Skies, Blue Seas report. Blue assets are essential for the development of this region’s economies, and the degradation of these assets presents a major challenge, one that the looming threat of climate change can only exacerbate. Three chapters of this report analyze, in turn, three core issues that worsen this deterioration: air pollution, marine-plastic pollution, and coastal erosion. Degradation of these assets is at an advanced stage and has severe adverse impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity—as well as on human health—while also bearing substantial economic costs. The three core topics have cross-cutting impacts on several other environmental issues affecting the region’s blue assets. These include ocean acidification, water pollution more generally, overexploitation of fish stocks, and sea level rise caused by climate change. As such, this report complements a 2019 World Bank report—“Sustainable Land Management and Restoration in the Middle East and North Africa Region”—that explores some of the region’s issues regarding its “green” assets. It also complements a forthcoming World Bank report on the economics of water that will address the crucial issue of sustainable water management throughout the Middle East and North Africa. ROAD MAP TO THE REPORT Chapter 2: “Human Advancement and Sustainable Natural Capital Use in the Middle East and North Africa” Before diving into the core “Blue Skies, Blue Seas” issues, chapter 2 examines the evolution of national income and three types of capital (human, physical, and natural capital) over the past 30 years in the region Introduction 3 in the context of a capital accounting framework. The analysis concludes that, by and large, there have been significant improvements in national incomes, human capital, and physical capital, regardless of which indicator one chooses. But the opposite holds for natural capital, which deteriorated substantially in recent decades, no matter which aspect one examines.1 With the exception of economies affected by war and conflict—notably Libya, the Syrian Arab Republic, and the Republic of Yemen—these opposing trends regarding incomes and human and physical capital versus natural capital are apparent. As further described below, the chapters on air pollution (chapter 3), marine plastics (chapter 4), and coastal erosion (chapter 5) show how polluted or degraded the region’s air and seas already are and how these developments degrade its ecosystems, harm the health of its residents, and weaken the productivity of its economies. Each of these chapters analyzes one of the core issues, then presents priority recommendations for policies suitable in the Middle East and North Africa context. All chapters found that there is a critical dearth of source information on the core issues—whether pertaining to the sources of air pollution in a given city, the sources and reasons for marine-plastic leakage into the seas, or the sources and reasons for coastal erosion in a particular stretch of the coast. Each chapter concludes with a broad menu of possible actions for tackling the various issues. Chapter 3: “Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities” Chapter 3 analyzes the current state of and trends in air pollution of the Middle East and North Africa, presents estimates of the human and eco- nomic toll, examines the sources (or lack of knowledge thereof), and pro- poses measures to reduce the region’s air pollution. Its core analysis section focuses on fine particulate matter (since it is the most consequen- tial pollutant for human health), showing that the Middle East and North Africa region has the second most polluted urban air in the world, trailing only South Asia. It also shows that residents of the region’s major cities are subjected to air pollution levels considerably higher (by about 10 times) than the level considered safe by the World Health Organization. The next major section estimates the toll of air pollution on human health and quantifies the morbidities and premature mortalities that can be attributed to low air quality in the Middle East and North Africa. The final major section proposes policy actions to be taken by governments of the region’s countries. This chapter of the report highlights the importance of improving the current understanding of the source contribution in the region’s countries and cities (as a first step) and stresses the need for suitable 4 Blue Skies, Blue Seas source-apportionment studies and dissemination of those results. Despite the scarcity of evidence on sources of air pollution in these countries and cities, the chapter highlights some priority recommendations that many Middle East and North Africa countries can implement nonetheless. Furthermore, the policy section discusses ways to tackle air pollution in the region, presenting options for each main source—mobile transporta- tion, industries and energy, waste burning, and other sources—focusing on market-based incentives, regulations, and technology. Chapter 4: “Blue Seas: Freeing the Seas from Plastics” Chapter 4 discusses the state of marine-plastic pollution in the region’s seas, focusing on the Mediterranean Sea. Its core analysis section shows that residents of the Middle East and North Africa’s economies are among the world’s top polluters and that large volumes of plastics are entering the Mediterranean from their coasts. It investigates the reasons behind these economies’ relatively high contributions to marine-plastic pollution, pointing largely to inadequate solid waste management but also to unsustainable production and consumption patterns of plastics. The next major section then provides an overview of the economic impacts of marine-plastic pollution, its increasing threat to ecosystems and public health, and the recent impacts of COVID-19 on the surge of plastic pollution. After this initial diagnostic, the policy review section discusses the way forward for stemming the plastics tide. A current lack of understanding about the sources of plastic leakage again presents itself as a bottle- neck for the formulation of specific policies in many Middle East and North Africa economies and cities. Nonetheless, the section proposes policies that aim to reduce the production and consumption of plastics, increase the reuse of plastics to improve solid waste management, and enhance the region’s capabilities for recycling of plastics. Chapter 5: “Blue Seas: Fighting Coastal Erosion” Chapter 5 assesses erosion along the coasts of the Middle East and North Africa, focusing on the Maghreb subregion.2 The coasts are home to large shares of the population and many economic hot spots. This chapter’s core analysis section, using a global dataset, shows that especially the coasts in the Maghreb are retreating rapidly, and many beaches are set to shrink or even disappear in the future. Drawing on a novel dataset for Morocco and Tunisia (created in cooperation with the National Oceanography Centre in the United Kingdom), the analysis highlights specific examples of such coastal regions. Introduction 5 The next major section then quantifies the direct economic costs of coastal erosion in four North African countries. It shows that coastal ero- sion carries substantial costs, even when not considering forgone reve- nues from tourism. The policy review section highlights, once again, the need to understand specific sources of coastal erosion and dynamics at the shorelines of the Middle East and North Africa in order to formulate suitable policies. It provides a broad set of such policies, emphasizing the coordination of protective measures and economic activities under the tenets of a comprehensive integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) scheme. These policies are supplemented by a host of regional examples and international best practices. NOTES 1. National incomes; physical capital (access to energy, access to water and sani- tation, road density, infrastructure quality, digital infrastructure, to name but a few); and human capital indicators (infant and maternal mortality, life expectancy, and years of school, among others) show positive trends over the past 30 years. In contrast, natural capital has suffered as various indicators of ecosystem and environmental health have continuously worsened. It could be argued whether human and economic advancements could have been faster (other regions, for example, have had faster progress in selected areas) or whether these aggregate indicators mask inequalities (there are lagging regions, and progress has not affected all strata of society equitably). However, the importance of these issues necessitates analyses that go far beyond the scope of this report, which is narrowly focused on some of the most pressing environmental issues. 2. Among the data and findings presented throughout the report, several sub- regions of the Middle East and North Africa will be specified. The Maghreb (in western North Africa) comprises Algeria, Libya, Malta, Morocco, and Tunisia. The Mashreq (in eastern North Africa and western Asia) comprises Djibouti, the Arab Republic of Egypt, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, the Syrian Arab Republic, West Bank and Gaza, and the Republic of Yemen. In addition, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries—Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates—are considered as a separate group given their shared char- acteristics, although they are also part of the Mashreq subregion geographically. CHAPTER 2 Human Advancement and Sustainable Natural Capital Use in the Middle East and North Africa OVERVIEW Even though the Middle East and North Africa is a region of diverse economies, it has on aggregate achieved impressive gains in human and economic development. This chapter adopts a capital accounting frame- work whose results show that most of the region’s economies have enhanced both produced capital and human capital in recent decades but have seen deterioration of their natural capital. Except in economies affected by conflict, the Middle East and North Africa’s advances in human capital over the past 30 years have included increased years of children’s formal education and overall life expec- tancy as well as reductions in young child and maternal mortality. Many challenges persist, including high levels of inequality and economic and social vulnerability, low rates of female participation in the work- force, high youth unemployment, and public health issues related to unhealthy lifestyles and pollution. Nonetheless, overall human capital has improved. Likewise, the region has made advances in produced capital, includ- ing in access to water and sanitation, access to electricity, transportation infrastructure, and digitalization. Urbanization has facilitated structural changes in the economy in a number of the region’s economies. And there has been income growth, even if—within the World Bank’s green, resilient, and inclusive development (GRID) framework (World Bank and IMF 2021)—it has not always been particularly inclusive. 7 8 Blue Skies, Blue Seas Opposed to this human and economic progress, the region’s natural capital has deteriorated. Poorly planned and executed urban develop- ment and high dependence on fossil fuels—especially for transportation but also for heating, cooling, and industry—have increased air pollution, with impacts on human health, productivity, and broader urban livability. Coastlines are eroding in some key areas whose economies depend on beach tourism, and plastic is increasingly flowing into the region’s seas. These stresses are interdependent in several respects and are exacer- bated by climate change. Periods of extreme heat are becoming more frequent, increasing the vulnerability of those exposed to air pollution. Rainfall is becoming sparser and less predictable. Global warming is contributing to sea level rise, making the region’s coastlines more vul- nerable to erosion. And even though the region is water-stressed, it does not manage its resources sustainably: Riverine and coastal ecosystems are threatened by poorly planned urban development and pollution, includ- ing plastic pollution. Poor land and watershed management contribute to loss of productive agriculture, to downstream riverine and coastal degradation, and to outdoor air pollution. The degradation has spread throughout terrestrial, coastal, and marine ecosystems, resulting in sub- stantial biodiversity loss. Insofar as both COVID-19 and climate change stem from inappro- priate interaction with nature, they are both symptoms of inadequate management of natural capital, and both have economic and social con- sequences. Tackling climate change and ensuring inclusive and resilient growth will require restoration of this natural capital. In the Middle East and North Africa, development overall has not been green or sustainable. A past pattern of “brown growth” threatens the longer-term regional goals of lasting prosperity and well-being. During the COVID-19 recovery period, economies have an opportunity to make a transformational change toward a GRID trajectory, which will improve their residents’ quality of life. Such a transformation would, at the same time, address the challenge of climate change and conserve and restore the natural capital that is the foundation of longer-term prosper- ity and resilience. This premise of transformation and improving resilience forms the foundation of this report, which focuses on three key challenges: improv- ing air quality (blue skies) and addressing coastal and marine degradation (blue seas) stemming from marine plastic pollution and coastal erosion. This chapter sets these three key challenges in context by summarizing some of the region’s broader economic, human development, and envi- ronmental trends. Human Advancement and Sustainable Natural Capital Use in the Middle East and North Africa 9 IMPROVEMENT IN INCOMES, PRODUCED CAPITAL, AND HUMAN CAPITAL This section looks at incomes and different forms of capital (human, pro- duced, and natural) to convey how economies in the Middle East and North Africa have been faring in recent decades. In judging the funda- mentals of an economy, it is important to look beyond standard macro- economic aggregates, taking into consideration a country’s entire “balance sheet” for a comprehensive picture of assets. A country’s assets are its infrastructure (produced capital), its people and their skills (human capi- tal), and its nature (natural capital). This chapter uses a c apital accounting framework (figure 2.1) to demonstrate that most of the region’s econo- mies have made progress in enhancing both produced capital and human capital in recent decades and correspondingly also raising average incomes.1 Income Growth Despite variations across countries, real incomes per capita grew from 1990 to 2018 in all subregions of the Middle East and North Africa (figure 2.2). Even though the region’s overall income growth has been sluggish compared with other regions,2 average national incomes grew by around 40 percent and 50 percent for the Maghreb and the Mashreq subregions, respectively, and for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries by a little more than 11 percent (a region that had a relatively high starting point).3 FIGURE 2.1 Capital Accounting Framework Long-term prosperity and well-being National income Total wealth Produced capital Natural capital Human capital Source: Adapted from WAVES, n.d. ©World Bank. Note: In this framework, as adapted, “net foreign assets” (as part of “Total Wealth”) has been omitted. 10 Blue Skies, Blue Seas FIGURE 2.2 Gross National Income Per Capita, by Subregion, Middle East and North Africa, 1990–2018 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 GCC Maghreb Mashreq Source: Based on Human Development Data Center, United Nations Development Programme, http://hdr.undp.org/en/data. Note: Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries include Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The Maghreb subregion comprises Algeria, Libya, Malta, Morocco, and Tunisia. The Mashreq subregion comprises Djibouti, the Arab Republic of Egypt, Iraq, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, the Syrian Arab Republic, West Bank and Gaza, and the Republic of Yemen. GNI = gross national income; PPP = purchasing power parity. On a national level, real incomes in Morocco and Tunisia increased by almost 70 percent, and in Djibouti and in the Arab Republic of Egypt by more than 60 percent. However, income growth in Libya, the Syrian Arab Republic, and the Republic of Yemen has been disrupted because of conflict, and the current situation is fragile in Iraq, Lebanon, and West Bank and Gaza. GCC countries that recorded strong increases included Bahrain (30.3 percent), Kuwait (30.8 percent), and Qatar (41.2 percent), whereas average income grew more slowly in Saudi Arabia and Oman (11 percent and 5.8 percent, respectively). In the United Arab Emirates, average real incomes decreased because of large influxes of expatriates starting in the early 2000s, which drove up population figures. Produced Capital Improvements Improvements in the development of key infrastructure services have allowed more people to live healthier, more productive lives. Proper access to sanitation and basic drinking water services, for example, is important to reduce the risk for diseases that would decrease people’s ability to work productively. Similarly, access to transportation GNI per capita, PPP (2011 US$, thousands) Human Advancement and Sustainable Natural Capital Use in the Middle East and North Africa 11 infrastructure, electricity, or more recently to the internet enables busi- nesses to operate more efficiently. Such access is a building block for technological advances. These services are also key to improved connec- tivity and quality of life. Water and sanitation. Improvements in delivering clean drinking water and basic sanitation have been among the governments’ greatest services to populations throughout the region. As a result, standards of hygiene have improved, and the incidence of waterborne diseases has fallen. Increases in the share of population using these services in the past two decades were particularly pronounced in the Maghreb subregion, with over 90 percent of the population having access to clean drinking water and almost 90 percent to basic sanitation in recent years, compared with under 80 percent in 2000 (figure 2.3). The Mashreq economies, except for Djibouti and the Republic of Yemen, started from already higher levels in 2000 but have also made great strides in this respect. The GCC countries achieved a coverage rate of almost 100 percent in 2017. FIGURE 2.3 Trends in Access and Use of Basic Sanitation and Drinking Water Services in the Middle East and North Africa, by Subregion, 2000–17 a. Use of basic sanitation servicesa b. Use of basic drinking water servicesb 100 100 95 95 90 90 85 85 80 80 75 75 2000 2005 2010 2015 2000 2005 2010 2015 GCC Maghreb Mashreq Source: Based on Global Health Observatory database, World Health Organization (WHO), https://apps.who.int/gho/data/view.main. Note: Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries include Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The Maghreb subregion comprises Algeria, Libya, Malta, Morocco, and Tunisia. The Mashreq subregion comprises Djibouti, the Arab Republic of Egypt, Iraq, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, the Syrian Arab Republic, West Bank and Gaza, and the Republic of Yemen. Data for West Bank and Gaza are unavailable. a. Under WHO definitions, access to “basic” sanitation refers to (a) “an improved sanitation facility that is not shared with other households and where excreta are safely disposed of in situ or treated off-site”; and (b) “a handwashing facility with soap and water at home.” b. Under WHO and United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) definitions, access to “basic” drinking water services refers to “an improved water source that is accessible on premises, available when needed, and free from fecal and priority chemical contamination.” Share of population with basic sanitation services (%) Share of population with basic drinking water services (%) 12 Blue Skies, Blue Seas However, access to water supply and sanitation has been dis- rupted in conflict-affected economies, with key infrastructure services destroyed. For example, residents of war-torn countries such as Libya, Syria, and the Republic of Yemen often lack access to safe sanitation services that were destroyed as the conflicts raged on (Nonay 2020; World Bank 2017a). Lack of access to parts for maintenance of sewage treatment systems is also referred to as an environmental crisis in the most recent Assistance Strategy for West Bank and Gaza (World Bank 2021a). Electricity, transportation, and internet. As for expanding access to electricity, transportation infrastructure, and the internet, the region has also made great progress. Within the past 25 years, electricity has become available for almost the entire rural population, with Maghreb countries rapidly catching up with the other subregions and even out- pacing Mashreq economies in the past few years (figure 2.4, panel a). The share of the total population with internet access has also increased rapidly (figure 2.4, panel b). These improvements are key to economic diversification and the development of digitally connected economies. However, the gains have FIGURE 2.4 Trends in Rural Access to Electricity and Total Population’s Internet Use in the Middle East and North Africa, by Subregion a. Rural access to electricity, 1995–2017a b. Internet use, 2000–18 100 100 90 80 75 70 50 60 50 25 40 30 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2000 2005 2010 2015 GCC Maghreb Mashreq Sources: Based on International Telecommunication Union 2020 data and the World Development Indicators database. Note: Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries include Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The Maghreb subregion comprises Algeria, Libya, Malta, Morocco, and Tunisia. The Mashreq subregion comprises Djibouti, the Arab Republic of Egypt, Iraq, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, the Syrian Arab Republic, West Bank and Gaza, and the Republic of Yemen. a. For individual years at the beginning of the sample, data on the rural population with access to electricity are unavailable for several economies. Share of rural population with electricity (%) Share of total population with internet (%) Human Advancement and Sustainable Natural Capital Use in the Middle East and North Africa 13 not been sustained in the conflict-affected economies, and some econo- mies face issues with the reliability and financial sustainability of services. Despite the improvements over recent decades, there is scope for further improvement in both “hard” and “soft” infrastructure.4 Improvements in these core infrastructure services are key build- ing blocks of GRID but must be developed to maximize opportunities for resilience and long-term sustainability. There are opportunities for transforming energy, transportation, and urban development trajecto- ries in the Middle East and North Africa, for example, in ways that use the region’s ample renewable energy resources, reduce the use of fossil fuels, improve urban air quality and urban livability, and reduce green- house gas (GHG) emissions. There is scope for improving the quality of infrastructure services, including sewage treatment—a core element in improving water quality—and solid waste management (see next sec- tion, on natural capital). The rapid increases in digitalization also offer opportunities for technological improvements across a range of sectors. Accompanying these investments with improved policies, institutions, and governance frameworks as well as enabling policies for private sec- tor development provide the basis for sustainable business growth and job creation. Human Capital Improvements Reductions in infant, child, and maternal mortality. Infant, young child (under five years), and maternal mortality rates have declined sub- stantially over the past three decades. Mortality rates for infants under one year have dropped by more than half since 1990 throughout the Middle East and North Africa (figure 2.5, panel a). Progress has been especially impressive in the Maghreb and Mashreq economies. Improved standards of hygiene, linked with better access to water and sanitation, have contributed in large part to these advancements (Alemu 2017). A similarly positive pattern emerges for maternal mortality, although these rates are still higher than in most other world regions, especially in the Maghreb countries (figure 2.5, panel b). Regarding maternal and neonatal health in these areas, most of the long-run decline in mortality can be attributed to (a) dramatic improve- ments in economic well-being (that is, increased incomes, as shown in figure 2.2); (b) associated improvements in health care services; and (c) substantial declines in the fertility rates of the region’s women (Sagynbekov 2018). Increased education and literacy. Education levels in the Middle East and North Africa have also advanced significantly in recent decades. The region’s residents now spend, on average, twice as many years in 14 Blue Skies, Blue Seas FIGURE 2.5 Selected Human Capital Indicators in the Middle East and North Africa, by Subregion a. Infant mortality, b. Maternal mortality, c. Average years of schooling, 1990–2017a 2000–17b 1990–2018c 60 160 10 140 50 8 120 40 100 6 30 80 60 4 20 40 2 10 20 0 0 0 90 95 00 05 10 15 00 05 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 1 01 99 99 00 0 1 12 1 1 2 20 20 20 GCC Maghreb Mashreq Sources: Based on the United Nations Development Programme’s Human Development Center (http://hdr.undp.org/en/data) and World Health Organization’s Global Health Observatory (https://apps.who.int/gho/data/view.main) databases. Note: Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries include Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The Maghreb subregion comprises Algeria, Libya, Malta, Morocco, and Tunisia. The Mashreq subregion comprises Djibouti, the Arab Republic of Egypt, Iraq, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, the Syrian Arab Republic, West Bank and Gaza, and the Republic of Yemen. a. Infancy is less than one year of age. b. Maternal mortality data for West Bank and Gaza are unavailable and therefore not included in the Mashreq calculations. c. Data on average years of schooling in Oman are unavailable before 2000 and therefore not included in the 1990–99 GCC calculations. school as they did 30 years ago (figure 2.5, panel c). Nonetheless, the average years of schooling in the Mashreq and the Maghreb subregions (7.6 and 7.0 years, respectively) are still lower than the global average of about 8.5 years. Notable exceptions include the Islamic Republic of Iran and Jordan, where young people enjoyed, on average, more than 10 years of education in 2017.5 Another positive development is that, in many of the region’s econo- mies, the gender gap between boys and girls in secondary schooling and university education has disappeared (Belhaj 2018). In addition, the region’s literacy rates have also improved greatly, rising from around 50 percent in 1990 to almost 80 percent in 2019, mostly because of strong increases in women’s literacy rates.6 The importance of environmental education is also gradually being recognized in the region, with environmental topics like pollution, cli- mate change, biodiversity, and sustainable development gaining ground Infant mortality (per 1,000 live births) Maternal mortality (per 100,000 live births) Average years of schooling Human Advancement and Sustainable Natural Capital Use in the Middle East and North Africa 15 in schools’ curricula. However, the economies vary widely regarding the depth of the content covered and methods of delivery (Saab, Badran, and Sadik 2019). And challenges persist regarding the quality of education and training in general. General concerns are that higher education is geared more toward “providing credentials” for public sector employ- ment than toward building the skill sets and culture of autonomy and inquiry necessary for a diversifying and increasingly digitalized modern economy with a dynamic private sector (El-Kogali and Krafft 2019). Employment and inclusion challenges. Inclusion remains a chal- lenge. One of the most pressing issues is pervasive gender inequality. In most Middle East and North Africa economies, female labor force participation remains low, social barriers for women remain high, and in some economies, women do not have the same legal rights as men (OECD 2017). On average, only a quarter of the region’s full-time workers are female, and women are rarely top managers in businesses (6.5 percent compared with an international average of 18 percent), with less than 5 percent of all firms having majority female ownership.7 In addition, young people face chronically high, and rising, rates of unemployment and underemployment. Two-thirds of the region’s population is under the age of 35, and over one-quarter of young people (ages 15–24) are unemployed (Bjerde 2020). The World Bank’s 2019 strategy to fight youth unemployment in the Middle East and North Africa highlights the need for skills development in areas such as digital technologies and business skills for young entrepreneurs in addition to improving human capital outcomes more generally (Bjerde 2020). Recent World Bank initiatives in the region include a US$55 million program (approved in May 2019) to support youth employment in Morocco (World Bank 2019a). Tackling these and other issues, including those related to income and wealth inequalities, is imperative to reduce exclusion and the risk of further political turmoil. These challenges require policy actions across a broad range of areas in addition to education and training. Some of these areas are addressed in other recent publications, including a report focused on overcoming spatial differences in opportunity (World Bank 2020a). COVID-19 impacts. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a severe economic impact on Middle East and North Africa economies, exacer- bating existing vulnerabilities. Uncertainty remains high regarding the speed and direction of recovery. Expected macroeconomic losses reached almost 7.2 percent of the region’s 2019 GDP as of mid-2021 relative to the counterfactual scenario of no crisis (World Bank 2021d). The expected GDP losses are highest for Lebanon, with an expected accu- mulated loss in 2021 equivalent to almost 26.1 percent of its 2019 GDP. 16 Blue Skies, Blue Seas This economic fallout has made it much harder for people to pur- sue their jobs and generate steady incomes, especially among those employed in the informal sector (World Bank 2020b), who make up a large proportion of workers in non-GCC Middle East and North Africa economies (Gatti et al. 2014). As a result, poverty rates have increased. In some countries (Djibouti, Egypt, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and the Republic of Yemen), interruptions in supply chains caused food prices to increase by 20 percent or more in 2020.8 Tourist arrivals have plummeted in coun- tries such as Egypt, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia, and the United Arab Emirates, where the tourism sector accounts for a substantial share of GDP and employment. Most governments, often with the aid of multilateral organizations, responded to the COVID-19 crisis with programs to cushion the impact on vulnerable groups. Nonetheless, the pandemic’s impact poses a huge challenge, particularly for the less advantaged. It also exacerbates gender inequalities, with more women than men leaving the workforce—including in the informal sectors—to care for children and other family members if they are sick (OECD 2020). Poverty and vulnerability have increased in countries such as Egypt and Lebanon. Moreover, COVID-19 has added to the obstacles faced by conflict-affected economies such as Libya, Syria, West Bank and Gaza, and the Republic of Yemen. In summary, the Middle East and North Africa region can claim improvements in incomes, physical capital (infrastructure), and human capital over the past three decades, but it also faces outstanding chal- lenges regarding the quality and inclusiveness of growth. The degree of progress has also varied widely between countries, as illustrated in more detailed country-specific analyses.9 Notably, residents of conflict- affected countries have faced displacement and tragic losses of life. Furthermore, the pattern of growth in some instances has not been consistent with longer-term sustainability, and the foundations of a GRID path are at risk. Unfortunately, the region’s growth over recent decades has come at the cost of degradation of its natural capital—a key building block for its future long-term development and well-being. NATURAL CAPITAL DETERIORATES AS ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION ACCELERATES Even as the Middle East and North Africa’s produced capital and human capital have improved over the past three decades, its natural capital has deteriorated. The region’s environmental resources are depleted in all dimensions—including air quality; coastal and marine ecosystems; land Human Advancement and Sustainable Natural Capital Use in the Middle East and North Africa 17 and freshwater resources; and biodiversity within both terrestrial and marine natural habitats. Although this report focuses on air quality (and climate change) and coastal and marine resources, this section reviews the trends in all forms of natural capital to provide an overview of how the region’s environment has fared in recent decades. Air and Climate Pollution Emissions that lead to local air pollution and contribute to global climate change are rising in the Middle East and North Africa. These translate into poor air quality for the region’s residents, especially in cities. Since the early 2000s, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions have more than doubled in the GCC and Mashreq subregions and have grown by around two- thirds in the Maghreb subregion (figure 2.6, panel a). Similarly, nitrogen oxide (NOX) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions have increased through- out the region, with the exception of relatively stable SO2 emissions in the Maghreb (figure 2.6, panels b and c).10 These increases—linked mostly to FIGURE 2.6 Recent Trends in Selected Gas Emissions in the Middle East and North Africa, by Subregion a. CO2 emissions, b. NOx emissions, c. SO2 emissions, 2000–18 2000–16 1995–2015a 1,250 80 5,000 1,000 4,000 60 750 3,000 40 500 2,000 20 250 1,000 0 0 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2000 2005 2010 2015 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 GCC Maghreb Mashreq Sources: Based on GCP 2019; Hoesly et al. 2018; and the World Resources Institute’s Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) 2.0 Climate Data Explorer (http://cait.wri.org/). Note: Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries include Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The Maghreb subregion comprises Algeria, Libya, Malta, Morocco, and Tunisia. The Mashreq subregion comprises Djibouti, the Arab Republic of Egypt, Iraq, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, the Syrian Arab Republic, West Bank and Gaza, and the Republic of Yemen. CO2 = carbon dioxide; NOX = nitrogen oxide; SO2 = sulfur dioxide. a. Data on SO2 emissions are unavailable for West Bank and Gaza and therefore not included in the Mashreq calculation. CO2 emissions (tons, millions) NOx emissions (tons, millions) SO2 emissions (kilotons) 18 Blue Skies, Blue Seas increased use of fossil fuels for power generation, transportation, indus- try, and the building sector—are the main contributors to climate change. Poor air quality makes cities less attractive places to live and work. All who live in cities with high levels of air pollution are exposed to it, but low-income residents are the most vulnerable. They often have jobs that require them to work outside, increasing their exposure. They also have worse access to good health care and defensive technologies (such as air purifiers). Air pollution in its various forms also exacerbates the vulnerability of those with underlying respiratory diseases to severe ill- ness and death and is linked to increased severity of COVID-19 disease. Improving air quality will bring multiple benefits across sectors. Air pol- lution is discussed in more detail in chapter 3, and climate change and its impacts are discussed later in this chapter. Marine-Plastic Pollution Increasing quantities of plastic debris from Middle East and North Africa economies are entering the seas and polluting marine ecosystems. Waste generation of all kinds, including plastics, has increased rapidly, but solid waste management remains inadequate, with widespread littering, little recycling, and poorly managed landfills. As a result, plastic pollution of the region’s shorelines and seas has escalated dramatically. In 2010, Algeria, Egypt, and Morocco were among the top 20 marine-polluting countries worldwide (Jambeck et al. 2015), with much of their waste entering the Mediterranean Sea. Furthermore, total marine debris is expected to grow significantly, with plastic flows to marine spaces of some countries projected to double their 2010 levels by 2025 (figure 2.7). Discarded plastics affect other sectors by polluting beaches, degrad- ing marine ecosystems, entering the food chain, and damaging fisheries. Plastics can also block storm drainage channels, increasing the risk of urban flooding after heavy rainfall and, with other discarded waste, can attract insects and rodents that carry health risks. Plastic pollution is discussed in more detail in chapter 4. Coastal Erosion The coasts of the Middle East and North Africa have changed in recent decades. Figure 2.8 shows net coastal erosion rates from 1984 to 2016 for the three subregions compared with other major regions worldwide. Whereas GCC coasts have been accreting, mainly because of land recla- mation and coastal developments by some countries, shorelines have been on the retreat in both the Maghreb and the Mashreq subregions. Human Advancement and Sustainable Natural Capital Use in the Middle East and North Africa 19 FIGURE 2.7 Volume of Plastic Debris Entering the Seas from the Middle East and North Africa, by Economy, 2010 and 2025 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 p. ia Re er cc o ep . p.e isi a bli c ya n q ti ia a itR R ib no Ira ou b a z a wa ma n in es lta an tar g o n u a t ab Al r n, ic u p L b a jib r G u h r ira Ma rd a r A O a o Q , A M o e T eam R Le D d i nd K B Em Jm a pt Ye , Is l rab a u b y S n k a g an n A B a d A r E Ir t yri a es ite S W Un 2010 2025 Source: Based on Jambeck et al. 2015. Note: Figures for 2025 are projections. The figures mask heterogeneity between and within countries, but the overall speed of coastal erosion in the Maghreb is second only to that of South Asia globally. Mashreq coasts have been eroding more slowly; nevertheless, erosion rates there have also led to large losses of land area. This shoreline retreat has adversely affected key economic sectors including beach tourism, which accounts for a significant share of GDP in several of the region’s economies. Coastal erosion is caused partly by natural processes but also by poorly planned coastal urban development and poor river basin man- agement, including (a) construction of upstream dams that can block silt flows; (b) urban riverside development, which can impede natural Marine-plastic debris (megatons per year) 20 Blue Skies, Blue Seas FIGURE 2.8 Average Annual Net Coastal Accretion and Erosion, Global Regions and Middle East and North Africa Subregions, 1984–2016 1.0 0.5 Accretion 0 Erosion −0.5 −1.0 sia d n A ic an ia tio il an d eb eq ica sia an st cif a c n r r r A ar pe As er n ica a a a o l p u r be a gh sh e a h h i c E P r ra o o e ib M M a h A m ut Sa fr d Eun nt o CC Am ar rt S o b- Au a Ce lf in u e C No S G La t th Source: Based on Luijendijk et al. 2018. Note: Positive values indicate accretion, and negative values, erosion. “North America” includes Canada and the United States. Orange bars designate Middle East and North Africa subregions, as follows: Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates); Maghreb (Algeria, Libya, Malta, Morocco, and Tunisia); and Mashreq (Djibouti, the Arab Republic of Egypt, Iraq, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, the Syrian Arab Republic, West Bank and Gaza, and the Republic of Yemen). drainage channels and interfere with the natural functioning of flood- plains; and (c) gravel and sand extraction from riverbeds and beaches. Coastal erosion is exacerbated by sea level rise linked to global warming and climate change. Restoring coastal resilience requires an integrated and cross- sectoral approach involving urban planners, local communities, nature and environmental protection agencies, water resource planners, and ports authorities. Chapter 5 discusses coastal erosion in more detail. Land Degradation More than half of all land and one-fourth of arable land in the Middle East and North Africa region is degraded, and land degradation affects both urban and rural areas.11 The economic cost of this reduced produc- tivity of arable land and rangelands is estimated to be about 1 percent of GDP annually, but this estimate does not consider broader ecosystem service values (Larsen 2011). Average shoreline change (m/year) Human Advancement and Sustainable Natural Capital Use in the Middle East and North Africa 21 Overall, the Mashreq subregion is more severely affected than the Maghreb or the GCC (World Bank 2019c). The drivers include pov- erty and increased population pressure in the poorest regions as well as poor watershed and agricultural water management. Unsustainable land and water management are interlinked: Poor land management contributes to erosion from water runoff and vegetation loss as well as to water pollution from agricultural runoff. Poor water manage- ment contributes to erosion on sloping lands and to increased salinity of irrigated land (World Bank 2019c). Land degradation and erosion have also added to the severity of the region’s sandstorms and dust storms, which have interacted with local pollutants and exacerbated the impact of air pollution, especially in urban areas. In the region’s dust storms, 85 percent of the particles are smaller than 10 micro- meters in diameter and are respirable (World Bank 2019b). Climate change exacerbates the impacts. Interventions to reduce land degradation can restore productivity and livelihoods in rural areas and lead to reduced air pollution. One recent example is the ongoing US$132 million Integrated Landscapes Management in Lagging Regions Project, targeting selected regions of Tunisia (World Bank 2017b). Investments such as these to sup- port climate-smart agriculture, reforestation, and value chains are intended not only to increase productivity and incomes but also to provide broader ecosystem services including reduced dam sedimen- tation, increased watershed protection, and reduced erosion—leading in turn to cleaner air, greater biodiversity, expanded recreational services, and more carbon sequestration. Because poverty levels are higher in rural areas than in urban areas, interventions of this kind can both increase inclusion and lead to more resilient green development. Threatened Terrestrial and Marine Ecosystems The Middle East and North Africa region has important terrestrial and marine ecosystems that are under threat. Terrestrial ecosystems are largely arid, semiarid, and Mediterranean biomes (Tolba and Saab 2009) but also include forests (especially in mountainous areas) and flooded grasslands and wetlands.12 The tidal flats of the Gulfs are among the world’s most important overwintering areas, annually host- ing 1–2 million waders from 125 species (IBP 2016; Scott 1989). The proportion of each country under formal national protection varies widely—ranging from only 0.21 percent of total land area in Libya, to 13.1 percent in Egypt, 17.5 percent in Kuwait, and over 30 percent in Morocco.13 22 Blue Skies, Blue Seas Terrestrial Ecosystems More progress has been made on terrestrial protection than on coastal and marine protection. Overall, however, species habitats have been dete- riorating throughout the Middle East and North Africa in recent decades (figure 2.9, panel a). In many protected areas, difficulties stem from inad- equate management and funding, insufficient community involvement, competing demands for natural resources, or poor tourism management, as in the following examples: • In Lebanon, the Al-Shouf Biosphere Reserve is threatened by uncon- trolled quarrying for urban development (SPNL 2018). • I n Iraq, full restoration of the southeastern wetlands and delta ecosys- tems would require use of 11 percent of the Tigris-Euphrates river system (Alwash et al. 2018). FIGURE 2.9 Natural Habitat Index Trends in the Middle East and North Africa, by Subregion a. Species habitat index, 2000–15a b. Fish stock status, 1995–2015b 100 40 95 30 90 20 85 10 80 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 GCC Maghreb Mashreq Source: Based on the Environmental Performance Index (EPI) 2020 (https://epi.yale.edu/) of the Yale Center for Environmental Law & Policy and Columbia University’s Center for International Earth Science Information Network. Note: The Species Habitat Index (SHI) and fish stock status (FSS) are indicators ranging from 0 to 100, with lower values denoting worse status. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) includes Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The Maghreb subregion includes Algeria, Libya, Malta, Morocco, and Tunisia. The Mashreq subregion includes Djibouti, the Arab Republic of Egypt, Iraq, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, the Syrian Arab Republic, West Bank and Gaza, and the Republic of Yemen. a. The SHI “measures the average proportion of species’ suitable habitat remaining within a country relative to the baseline year 2001” (Wendling et al. 2020). It is one of six indicators used to calculate the EPI’s Biodiversity & Habitat issue category. Data on this indicator are unavailable for Bahrain, Malta, and West Bank and Gaza. b. FSS “measures the percentage of a country’s total catch that comes from overexploited or collapsed fish stocks, based on an assessment of all fish stocks caught within a country’s exclusive economic zone” (Wendling et al. 2020). It is one of three indicators used to calculate the EPI’s Fisheries issue category. Data on this indicator are unavailable for Bahrain, Djibouti, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Qatar, Syrian Arab Republic, and West Bank and Gaza. Species Habitat Index, score (1–100) Fish stock status, score (1–100) Human Advancement and Sustainable Natural Capital Use in the Middle East and North Africa 23 • I n Saudi Arabia, illegal hunting of endangered ungulates persists in protected desert landscapes (Al-Tokhais and Thapa 2019). Improved protected area management, forest and watershed restoration, and support for agrobiodiversity and ecotourism are all strategies for ecosystem restoration. For example, Morocco’s Vision 2020 strategy for sustainable tourism aims to ensure the conservation of Morocco’s natural resources and its residents’ well-being as well as to respond to tourists’ evolving sensitivities and make sustainability one of the country’s distin- guishing features (Roudies 2013). Marine Ecosystems Overfishing. Marine ecosystems are under particular threat, with the Mediterranean being one of the most overfished seas in the world. And in the Mediterranean, Red Seas, and Atlantic areas of the Middle East and North Africa, coastal and marine tourism are of growing impor- tance to the region’s economies. However, although more than 7 per- cent of the Mediterranean’s coastal and marine areas are currently protected, over 90 percent of those areas are within the northern Mediterranean. In the territorial waters of the Middle East and North Africa, fish stocks have often been overexploited (figure 2.9, panel b). Together with the Black Sea, the Mediterranean has the highest rate of overfishing across all oceans and seas, with more than 60 percent of fish stocks being fished at unsustainable levels (FAO 2020). Protection of marine areas, including no-take zones in sensitive areas, seasonal and depth restrictions on catch, and appropriate fishing gear can allow fisheries and marine resources to regenerate (MedPAN, UNEP/ MAP, and RAC/SPA 2016). Carefully managed recreational fishing and diving can increase local incomes, especially if governments set commer- cial marine species catch limits. Water pollutants. The water quality of marine ecosystems has been degrading. Polluted marine waters with high levels of nutrients from fertilizers, septic systems, sewage treatment plants, and urban runoff often have high concentrations of chlorophyll-a and excess amounts of algae. Chlorophyll-a levels (an indicator of such effluent discharge) in the Mediterranean have increased, especially along the Moroccan and Tunisian coasts but also in the Nile delta and along the eastern Mediterranean coast (map 2.1). Overall, chlorophyll-a in the Mediterranean has been increasing by around 0.9 percent per year in the past two decades (CMEMS 2021). Contributing to this problem is an overall lack of adequate waste management and wastewater treatment facilities. Furthermore, marine resources are threatened by marine-plastic pollution, which will increase in the coming decades if no action is taken. 24 Blue Skies, Blue Seas MAP 2.1 Annual Percentage Change of Chlorophyll-a Levels in the Mediterranean Sea, 1997–2019 46°N 5 4 42°N 3 2 1 38°N 0 –1 –2 34°N –3 –4 –5 30°N 6°W 0° 6°E 12°E 18°E 24°E 30°E 36°E Longitude Source: EU Copernicus Marine Service Information (CMEMS 2021). © European Union. Note: Multisensor satellite observations show the chlorophyll trend from 1997 to 2019, expressed as the average percentage change per year, with positive (increasing) trends in red and negative (decreasing) trends in blue. Water Scarcity and Poor Quality The Middle East and North Africa is a water-scarce region that does not manage its water resources sustainably. Over 60 percent of the region’s residents live in areas with high or very high surface water stress, compared with the global average of 35 percent, making the Middle East and North Africa the world’s most water-scarce region (World Bank 2018).14 Figure 2.10 illustrates the sustainability of water resource man- agement, by water source, in the region’s economies and shows that groundwater in particular, and a substantial proportion of surface water, are unsustainably managed. Poor water resource management— especially of agricultural water, which accounts for over 80 percent of the region’s water use—contributes to water resource depletion and water quality degradation (World Bank 2018). In GCC countries, desalinated water accounts for an increasing share of water supply, which has a significant environmental footprint because desalination is highly energy intensive. Decreasing water flow in rivers, linked to increasing upstream water extraction, also leads to insufficient flows entering the sea, hence contributing to saline intrusion. And as men- tioned earlier, poor upstream water management can contribute in turn to coastal erosion. Latitude % year Human Advancement and Sustainable Natural Capital Use in the Middle East and North Africa 25 FIGURE 2.10 Sustainability of Water Withdrawals, by Source, as a Share of Total Withdrawals in Middle East and North Africa Economies, 2010s 100 80 60 40 20 0 –20 –40 –60 –80 –100 a a ti n . . n n l s c q r a it a n o Lib y bi u a ep p a i e e li a i ira ibo Om c R b R e az da ra ra t b Ira t is a er o cc i A j i a G r h Is ira u Qao p un uwa lg n D b a ro ud lam A r an d J B m e T K A e o Sa Is t, b E b R L M , k a a an gy p n r r Ir E st Ba A A e nit ed yri an W U S Desalination Surface water (sustainable) Reuse of treated wastewater Groundwater (unsustainable) Reuse of agricultural drainage water Surface water (unsustainable) Groundwater (sustainable) Source: World Bank 2018 using desalination capacity data from Global Water Intelligence (2016) and the AQUASTAT database of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Note: The Middle East and North Africa economies are shown in order of least to most sustainable water withdrawal sources. No data are available for the Republic of Yemen on sustainability of water use. The percentage of “unsustainable” groundwater and surface water withdrawals was estimated using the Blue Water Sustainability Index (Wada and Bierkens 2014). Water quality management is also inadequate in most Middle East and North Africa economies, resulting in pollution, health impacts on the population, and loss of ecosystem services and fisheries. The lack of adequate water quality management practices in the region lead to unsustainable water consumption; untreated municipal and industrial wastewater; and the hazardous or harmful by-products of intense desali- nation, poor solid waste management, and poor agricultural practices that pollute the region’s rivers and seas (World Bank 2018). This pollu- tion contributes to the loss of riverine, marine, and coastal ecosystems and fisheries (Argimon 2019). In the Middle East and North Africa, only half of discharged waste- water is collected, and of this, less than half is treated (Damania et al. 2019). Share of total withdrawals (%) Unsustainable Sustainable 26 Blue Skies, Blue Seas Surface water salinization is pervasive, resulting mostly from agriculture but also from urban wastewater discharge. Partly because of this pollu- tion, an estimated 17 percent of freshwater species are threatened with extinction (García et al. 2015). Moreover, coastal industrial expansion in Tunisia’s Gulf of Gabès has contributed to a high discharge of industrial effluents into seawater with a range of contaminants, including metals (Naifar et al. 2018). Poor agricultural land and water management con- tributes increasingly to water pollution and salinization from discharges of agrochemicals, organic matter, drug residues, sediments, and saline that drain into water bodies and affect human health and productivity (FAO 2014). Programs are under way to improve wastewater treatment and agri- cultural water management in several countries including Egypt (Egypt Today 2021; World Bank 2010). Better water management requires policies and financial instruments to create incentives for resource-use efficiency and waste reduction. The challenge of water resource and water quality management illustrates the links between land and water management and the impact of water pollution on coastal and marine pollution. Climate Change Climate change is exacerbating the environmental challenges the region already faces. The Middle East and North Africa is already hot and water- stressed, and periods of extreme heat and drought will become more pro- longed and severe. Much of the region’s population and economy is concentrated along coastlines, and even with modest sea level rise, several large cities will be become more vulnerable to coastal flooding. At the same time, several of the region’s economies, for their size, are significant contributors to GHG emissions. There is significant scope for these countries to reduce resource-use intensity and to manage land and water resources sustainably to contribute to both climate change adaptation and mitigation. Other reports—for example, Turn Down the Heat: Confronting the New Climate Normal (World Bank 2014)—have addressed these intensifying challenges in detail, so they are discussed only briefly here, drawing on this existing documentation. Rising Temperatures and Desertification The Middle East and North Africa region will experience increasing tem- peratures and more frequent periods of extreme heat. Warming of about 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade has been observed in the region from 1961 to 1990 and has increased even faster since then (World Bank 2014). Human Advancement and Sustainable Natural Capital Use in the Middle East and North Africa 27 Geographically, the strongest warming is projected to take place close to the Mediterranean coast but also in the inland areas of Algeria, Libya, and large parts of Egypt, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. The effect is likely to be felt most in large cities. Extreme heat brings health impacts, especially on those with under- lying health conditions and those who have to work outside, who are gen- erally lower-income workers. The better-off residents will have access to air conditioning, but without a significant shift to renewable energy, this will only further increase GHG emissions. Desertification processes will interact with dust storms to increase air pollution in both rural and urban areas, including in the wealthy GCC cities. Climate change highlights the importance of addressing urban air pollution and greening cities. Increasing Aridity and Declining Crop Yields An already dry region will become even more arid, putting pressure on already scarce water resources and reducing agricultural productivity. Rainfed crop yields are expected to decline by 30 percent with warming of 1.5–2 degrees Celsius (2.7–3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) without consider- ing adaptation (World Bank 2014). The Middle East and North Africa region already imports 50 percent of its wheat, and this share will likely increase. Livestock will be subject to increasing heat stress, with conse- quent health and productivity impacts. With agriculture already account- ing for over 80 percent of the region’s water use, existing tensions concerning competing demands for water are likely to increase, and aqui- fer depletion will also increase. Reductions in water quantity are likely to also reduce water quality while increasing salinity as well. Although the GCC countries can cre- ate desalinated water for municipal purposes, these processes are energy intensive, and technology shifts are needed. As mentioned earlier, climate-smart agriculture has great potential, and some countries are investing heavily in this area to secure the “triple win” of increased pro- ductivity, adaptation, and mitigation. (Box 2.1 refers to such a project in Morocco and other countries.) Rising Seas and Coastal Floods Middle East and North Africa countries are vulnerable to the impacts of rising seas. Even a modest sea level rise of only 0.35 meters, consistent with a global temperature rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius (the most optimistic scenario), would have substantial impacts. The Mediterranean’s jewel, Alexandria; the Nile delta coastal cities; and the Mediterranean metropo- lises of Port Said, Egypt; Benghazi, Libya; and Algiers, Algeria, are all particularly vulnerable to flooding (Elsharkay, Rashed, and Rached 2009). A sea level rise of only 0.3 meters would flood 30 percent of metropolitan 28 Blue Skies, Blue Seas FIGURE 2.11 Mean Sea Level Rise of the Mediterranean Sea, 1993–2020 15.0 12.5 10.0 7.5 5.0 2.5 0 1993–2020 trend: –2.5 2.5 ± 0.83 mm/yr –5.0 93 94 95 96 97 989 9 9 9 9 9 99 9 000 00 1 02 03 040 0 0 00 5 00 6 7 00 00 8 9 00 01 0 01 1 2 3 01 01 01 4 01 5 16 17 18 9 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 20 20 20 20 1 022 20 2 Sources: EU Copernicus Marine Service Information (CMEMS 2021) and Copernicus Climate Change Service (https://climate.copernicus.eu/). Note: mm/yr = millimeters per year. Alexandria, forcing about 545,000 people to abandon their homes and land and leading to the loss of 70,500 jobs. Hence, it is worrisome that the Mediterranean’s mean sea level has risen steadily over the past three decades (figure 2.11). Other vulnerable cities, although not on the Mediterranean coast, include Muscat, Oman; Dubai, United Arab Emirates; Aden, Republic of Yemen; and Basra, Iraq. Coastal tourism—an important component of GDP in several Middle East and North Africa economies—will be affected by beach erosion, and some key port and industrial facilities will be vulnerable. Coastal flood- ing will cause saline intrusion in low-lying areas, affecting agriculture, especially in Egypt, Tunisia, and the Republic of Yemen (World Bank 2014). The vulnerability of the region’s coastlines and coastal cities high- lights the urgency of scaling up resilience measures as part of a broad green recovery plan. Leading in GHG Emissions and Other Air Pollutants The Middle East and North Africa also includes economies with high GHG emissions, and there is significant scope in all of them for climate change mitigation. Five of the world’s top 10 countries in per capita GHG emissions are in the Middle East and North Africa, all in the GCC.15 Overall, GHG emissions have been increasing in the region over the past several decades. As the next subsection shows, the Middle East and North Mean sea level rise (centimeters) Human Advancement and Sustainable Natural Capital Use in the Middle East and North Africa 29 Africa has also been the only region worldwide that did not manage to decouple average income growth from per capita carbon emissions and has been the least successful in doing so for other air pollutants. As for trends in energy intensity (per unit of GDP), whereas Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries have seen a significant decline on average, the Middle East and North Africa has achieved significant declines only in Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar (which has largely eliminated gas flaring), and Tunisia, as well as slight declines in Algeria, Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon, and Morocco. Despite economic diversification measures, hydrocarbons remain by far the prin- cipal export and source of government revenue for 10 Middle East and North Africa countries—and for many of the others, remittances from residents working in these countries are significant. A LAG IN DECOUPLING GROWTH FROM AIR POLLUTION AND GHGS Unlike other regions of the world, the Middle East and North Africa has not decoupled its income growth from carbon emissions.16 As the previ- ous sections noted, the development path of the region as a whole, its subregions, and individual economies has harmed the environment. What would it mean to decouple growth from emissions? Absolute decoupling occurs when emissions per capita decrease from year to year while income per capita continues to grow, whereas relative decoupling means that emissions per capita still increase but more slowly than aver- age income growth. Decoupling Carbon Emissions from Growth Most of the world’s regions have been decoupling their economic growth from their negative environmental externalities such as carbon emissions, either absolutely or relatively. In contrast, carbon emissions in the Middle East and North Africa’s Mashreq and GCC subregions have grown faster than incomes, and carbon emissions in the Maghreb have grown as fast as incomes (figure 2.12). However, such an aggregate view masks some of the heterogeneity across countries. Some of the region’s economies have indeed been able to decouple income growth from carbon emission growth (figure 2.13). Although Iraq, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Oman, and Saudi Arabia have not decoupled at all, other countries such as Lebanon and Tunisia have achieved relative decoupling. Bahrain and Jordan have even lowered their emissions per capita, albeit only slightly. 30 Blue Skies, Blue Seas FIGURE 2.12 Trends in Growth of GNI Per Capita in Relation to CO2 Emissions Per Capita in Middle East and North Africa Subregions and Other Global Regions, 1990–2018 a. GCC b. Maghreb c. Mashreq 180 150 180 170 140 160 160 130 150 140 140 120 130 110 120 120 110 100 100 100 90 90 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 d. East Asia and Pacic e. Europe and Central Asia f. Latin America and the Caribbean 350 150 150 300 130 140 130 250 110 120 200 90 110 150 70 100 100 50 90 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 g. North America h. South Asia i. Sub-Saharan Africa 160 350 140 300 130 140 120 250 120 110 200 100 100 150 90 80 100 80 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 GNI per capita CO2 emissions per capita Sources: Based on Global Carbon Project (GCP) 2020 and the Human Development Data Center, United Nations Development Programme (http://hdr.undp.org/en/data). Note: Gross national income (GNI) and carbon dioxide (CO2) emission growth are indexed relative to 1990 (= 100). Panels a-c represent subregions of the Middle East and North Africa, as follows: The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) includes Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The Maghreb subregion includes Algeria, Libya, Malta, Morocco, and Tunisia. The Mashreq subregion includes Djibouti, the Arab Republic of Egypt, Iraq, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, the Syrian Arab Republic, West Bank and Gaza, and the Republic of Yemen. “North America” (panel g) includes Canada and the United States. Per capita growth, index (1990 = 100) Per capita growth, index (1990 = 100) Per capita growth, index (1990 = 100) Per capita growth, index (1990 = 100) Per capita growth, index (1990 = 100) Per capita growth, index (1990 = 100) Per capita growth, index (1990 = 100) Per capita growth, index (1990 = 100) Per capita growth, index (1990 = 100) Human Advancement and Sustainable Natural Capital Use in the Middle East and North Africa 31 FIGURE 2.13 Growth of GNI Per Capita in Relation to CO2 Emissions Per Capita since 1990 in Middle East and North Africa Economies 300 200 No decoupling IRN OMN MAR 100 IRQ EGY QAT TUN SAU KWT LBN DJI Relative decoupling LBY DZA 0 ARE JOR SYR BHR Absolute decoupling YEM −100 0 100 200 300 GNI per capita growth, index (1990 = 0) Sources: Based on Global Carbon Project (GCP) 2019 and the Human Development Data Center, United Nations Development Programme (http:// hdr.undp.org/en/data). Note: Gross national income (GNI) and carbon dioxide (CO2) emission growth are indexed relative to 1990 (= 0) to assess the extent of each economy’s decoupling of its economic growth from its carbon emissions. “Absolute decoupling” refers to emissions per capita that decrease while GNI per capita increases. “Relative decoupling” refers to emissions per capita that increase but more slowly than GNI per capita. Economies are labeled using ISO alpha-3 codes, as listed on the Abbreviations page in the front matter of this report. The light blue dots desig- nate economies of other global regions. Data for Malta and West Bank and Gaza are unavailable. Decoupling Air Pollutants from Growth The Middle East and North Africa has also decoupled its growth the least of all world regions from air pollutant emissions. Unlike the situation with climate pollutants, the region has relatively decoupled its per capita GNI growth from its per capita air pollutant emissions of NOX and SO2—both of which are most directly related to industrial activity, power generation, and motorized transportation. However, air pollution decoupling has been slower in the Middle East and North Africa than in any other region (figure 2.14). Although the region is decoupling per capita, high population growth means that overall air quality has still deteriorated (as shown earlier in figure 2.6). And, as with carbon emissions, the region’s economies are CO2 emissions per capita growth, index (1990 = 0) 32 Blue Skies, Blue Seas FIGURE 2.14 Progress in Decoupling Growth of GNI Per Capita from NOX and SO2 Emissions Per Capita since 1990, by Global Region a. Decoupling of GNI from NOX emissions b. Decoupling of GNI from SO2 emissions a 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 0 ific sia sia ica ica an a ic a ia n a ia a ac h A l A e r r e ricf f cif ri c As eab fr ic A A s cfri d P ut tra Am n rib h A t d P a me ral b n A t r ib n A h Aut th a a S o n ra a r n n a ra o r i C e or th haa he C No a ai or th Ce e C ha S od d h a N st As n N -S d s d e a ub nd t an A N an t -S n t st e nd ub t a Ea p S a aro a s Ea p a a S as Eu er ic e E r o ic El Eu er le Am Mi dd Am id d ati n tin M L La Sources: Based on Hoesly et al. 2018; data from the Human Development Data Center, United Nations Development Programme (http://hdr .undp.org/en/data); and the World Resources Institute’s Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) 2.0 Climate Data Explorer (http://cait.wri.org/). Note: The figures show the differential, in percentage points, between the per capita (p.c.) growth rates of gross national income (GNI) and the emissions of nitrogen oxide (NOX) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) in panels a and b, respectively. Growth rates are calculated in comparison to 1990 levels and the differences in growth rates computed. In panel a, for example, growth rates of both NOX emissions p.c. and GNI p.c. compared with their 1990 levels were computed. Averages of the respective growth rates for 2014–16 were computed to adjust for erratic changes, and the average growth rate of GNI p.c. was then subtracted from the average growth rate of NOX emissions p.c. The resulting statistic is the differential growth between the two growth rates, expressed in percentage points (ppts). For SO2, the same procedure was applied, whereby the average of the growth rates for 2012–14 (due to data availability) was computed for both GNI and emissions p.c. “North America” includes Canada and the United States. a. Data on SO2 emissions in West Bank and Gaza are unavailable. heterogeneous in their decoupling progress (figure 2.15). Similarly, oil importing economies have achieved better rates of decoupling than the oil exporters, even achieving absolute decoupling of NOX and SO2 emis- sions from income growth. On the other hand, oil exporting countries achieved only relative decoupling in this respect and have been the slow- est worldwide to do so. Decoupling Black Carbon Emissions from Growth The Middle East and North Africa has also not decoupled its income growth from black carbon emissions, among the most potent of Differential of GNI p.c. and NOX p.c. growth since 1990 (ppts) Differential of GNI p.c. and SO2 p.c. growth since 1990 (ppts) Human Advancement and Sustainable Natural Capital Use in the Middle East and North Africa 33 FIGURE 2.15 Extent of Decoupling Growth of GNI Per Capita from NOX and SO2 Emissions Per Capita since 1990, Middle East and North Africa Economies 150 YEM 100 No decoupling QAT SAU KWT DZA 50 IRN TUN BHR IRQ OMN Relative decoupling LBY KWT 0 JOR EGY MAR IRN ARE BHR YEM DJI LBN EGY OMN DZA MAR LBY SYR Absolute decoupling JOR LBN SYR SAU IRQ DJI −50 TUN QAT ARE −100 0 100 200 300 GNI per capita growth, index (1990 = 0) Sources: Based on Hoesly et al. 2018; data from the Human Development Data Center, United Nations Development Programme (http://hdr .undp.org/en/data); and the World Resources Institute’s Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) 2.0 Climate Data Explorer (http://cait.wri.org/). Note: Gross national income (GNI) and emissions growth are indexed relative to 1990 (= 0) to assess the extent of each economy’s decoupling of its economic growth from its nitrogen oxide (NOX) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions. Dark blue and green dots denote NOX emissions; orange and light blue dots denote SO2 emissions. “Absolute decoupling” refers to emissions per capita that decrease while GNI per capita increases. “Relative decoupling” refers to emissions per capita that increase but more slowly than GNI per capita. Economies are labeled using ISO alpha-3 codes, as listed on the Abbreviations page in the front matter of this report. Data for Malta and West Bank and Gaza are unavailable. Light blue and green dots designate economies of other global regions. climate and air pollutants. Black carbon emissions—linked mostly to the burning of solid waste and agriculture but also (to a lesser extent in the Middle East and North Africa) to road vehicle combustion and power generation—have not been decoupled from economic growth in either the Middle East and North Africa or Sub-Saharan Africa (figure 2.16). This particular type of particulate matter (PM) is disproportionately harmful. Studies have shown that black carbon particles have more harmful health effects than PM as a whole (the full range of microscopic solid or liquid particles suspended in the air). Estimated increases in life expectancy associated with abatement measures for black carbon are NOX and SO2 emissions per capita growth, index (1990 = 0) 34 Blue Skies, Blue Seas FIGURE 2.16 Comparison of Global Regions in Decoupling Growth of GNI Per Capita from Black Carbon Emissions Per Capita since 1990 100 50 0 −50 ic cif As ia As ia ica n ar ea ric ric a Pa f f d ut h ral e bb A A n o nt h A m Ca ri rth ran sia a S Ce t od o r he d N h a A an N d t n -S a st e n t a ub Ea op a a as S ur ric le E E e d n A m idM La ti Sources: Based on Hoesly et al. 2018 and data from the Human Development Data Center, United Nations Development Programme (http://hdr.undp.org/en/data). Note: The figure shows the differential, in percentage points (ppts), between the per capita (p.c.) growth rates of gross national income (GNI) and black carbon emissions. Growth rates are calculated in comparison to 1990 levels, and the differences in growth rates were computed. In particular, the growth rates of both black carbon emissions p.c. and GNI p.c. relative to their 1990 levels were computed. Averages of the respective growth rates for 2012–14 were computed to adjust for erratic changes, and the average growth rate of GNI p.c. was then subtracted from the average growth rate of black carbon emissions p.c. The resulting statistic is the differential growth between the two growth rates, expressed in percentage points. “North America” includes Canada and the United States. about four to nine times higher than for an equivalent change in PM2.5 mass (Janssen et al. 2011).17 The World Health Organization also classi- fies black carbon as being especially harmful relative to other air pollut- ants (Janssen et al. 2012). Globally, open burning of biomass (including agriculture-residue burning) accounts for nearly 37 percent of global black carbon emis- sions (Bond et al. 2013). However, the major source of black carbon in Cairo is traffic, even during large biomass-burning events (Mahmoud et al. 2008). As opposed to decoupling of CO2, NOX, and SO2 emissions, Differential of GNI p.c. and black carbon p.c. growth since 1990 (ppts) Human Advancement and Sustainable Natural Capital Use in the Middle East and North Africa 35 neither oil exporting nor oil importing economies in the Middle East and North Africa have achieved any form of decoupling of black carbon emissions from income growth. Intraregional Differences, Regional Implications Oil exporters decoupled more slowly than oil importers in the Middle East and North Africa. The world’s slowest decoupling rates, as presented above, are largely driven by the oil exporting countries, even though the non-oil exporting economies also show extremely low decoupling rates (as shown when splitting the sample accordingly). Although some of the region’s oil producing countries have made efforts to diversify their econ- omies, these often included investments in downstream industries of the oil and gas sectors, such as the petrochemical sector. Moreover, the continued provision of subsidized fuels, particularly by the oil producing countries, disincentivizes the broader adoption of sus- tainable alternatives—such as cleaner mobility (public transportation and noncombustion vehicles), cleaner energy production, and less-resource- intensive production and consumption patterns in general. The reasons for the region’s stubbornly high emission rates and lack of decoupling are reviewed in detail in chapter 3 but summarized here. A failure to sufficiently decouple emissions growth from income growth has adverse implications for the climate and for residents’ expo- sure to hazardous particles in the air. As noted earlier, the economies of the Middle East and North Africa have either failed or succeeded only partially in decoupling emissions growth from income growth, especially when compared with other regions. Reasons for this are manifold and include high emissions from outdated vehicle fleets, low incentives to switch to alternative modes of transport such as public transportation or nonmotorized options, weak regulatory frameworks for industrial emission control, and the region’s unsustainable energy sources—about which chapter 3 (on air pollution) provides further insights. These deficiencies have also translated into only a limited decoupling between income growth and the PM levels that the region’s residents are exposed to. Only Sub-Saharan Africa has a slower rate of decoupling of income growth from PM2.5 exposure (figure 2.17). Data limitations prevent investigation into possible decoupling processes regarding plastic consumption, marine-plastic pollution, and coastal erosion. Additional data on such possible decoupling processes would be highly desirable to help advance the “blueing” of the region’s skies and seas. 36 Blue Skies, Blue Seas FIGURE 2.17 Comparison of Global Regions in Decoupling Growth of GNI Per Capita from PM2.5 Exposure since 1990 250 200 150 100 50 0 ific sia a n iac A ric a s ic a ica Pa h e be l A fr rA d ut Am rib ra Af an So h t Ca en t th n a r e C No r ra si o h d d ah a N t S st A d ann e t a n ub - Ea a a p as S eri c o Eu r E m dd le n Ati M i La Sources: Based on data from the Human Development Data Center, United Nations Development Programme (http://hdr.undp.org/en/data) and the World Development Indicators database. Note: The figure shows the differential, in percentage points (ppts), between the per capita (p.c.) growth rates of gross national income (GNI) and the mean annual exposure to PM2.5 air pollution (fine particu- late matter of 2.5 microns or less in diameter). The growth rates of both PM2.5 p.c. and GNI p.c. relative to their 1990 levels were computed. Averages of the respective growth rates for 2015–17 were computed to adjust for erratic changes, and the average growth rate of GNI p.c. was then subtracted from the average growth rate of PM2.5 exposure. The resulting statistic is the differential growth between the two growth rates, expressed in ppts. “North America” includes Canada and the United States. SWITCHING TO A GREEN GROWTH PATH The COVID-19 pandemic and its associated recovery programs provide a window of opportunity to kick-start or accelerate decoupling in the Middle East and North Africa and to shift toward a green growth path. After the initial relief phase, during which countries have focused on pub- lic health and social transfers, and as they move into the recovery phase, it is important to make this a GRID recovery, which will accelerate decoupling. Economies in the Middle East and North Africa reacted rapidly to the onset of the COVID-19 crisis and have implemented large-scale programs in both the public health and social protection sectors to sup- port households and firms, combined with strict containment measures (OECD 2020). However, the recovery from COVID-19 also offers Differential of GNI p.c. and PM2.5 concentrations growth since 1990 (ppts) Human Advancement and Sustainable Natural Capital Use in the Middle East and North Africa 37 opportunities for “building back better”—boosting climate-smart infra- structure and technologies, supporting adaptation measures, and avoid- ing carbon-intensive investments (Batini et al. 2021). Hence, recovery from COVID-19 provides an opportunity to reset policies toward green, renewable energy that will be more sustainable in the longer run. The World Bank Group and other multilateral organizations have moved quickly to respond. Although most COVID-19 relief support measures have been “climate neutral,” there has also been some support for greening recoveries (box 2.1). BOX 2.1 Green Recovery Goals Guide COVID-19 Responses by Multilateral Organizations World Bank Group prevent and mitigate the impacts of The World Bank Group supports govern- severe droughts (World Bank 2021e). ments around the world in their responses • I n Panama, a US$300 million project to the COVID-19 crisis, targeting the supports the protection of human capital recovery of their health systems, popula- during the COVID-19 response and tions, and economies. It is also supporting includes reforms to incorporate energy activities in some countries to facilitate a and environmental considerations into “green recovery.” For example, it is making procurement processes, increase the the following investments: competitiveness of renewable energies, • I n Egypt, a US$200 million operation and create an inventory and registry of aims to enhance air pollution manage- carbon emissions to allow the future ment and upgrade waste management creation of a carbon market (World infrastructure in the Greater Cairo Bank 2021f). region (World Bank 2021c). Through • In Mexico, a US$750 million Development measures to manage medical waste and Policy Financing (DPF) program sup- foster public-private partnerships in solid ports the government in various activi- waste management, the World Bank ties related to forest conservation, the will support the response to COVID-19 implementation of a greenhouse gas while also advancing more sustainable (GHG) emission trading system, and the patterns in the future. introduction of standardized air quality • I n Morocco, in cooperation with the monitoring and a public communication French Development Agency (AFD), campaign in large cities (World Bank the World Bank is supporting a US$250 2021b). Additionally, this DPF program million “Green Generation Program- aims to expand access to resilient urban for-Results” project to facilitate a swift infrastructure and social housing for the response to the COVID-19 pandemic poor while simultaneously creating jobs while supporting activities in cli- that contribute to climate change mitiga- mate-smart agriculture that will help tion and adaptation. (continued) 38 Blue Skies, Blue Seas BOX 2.1 Green Recovery Goals Guide COVID-19 Responses by Multilateral Organizations (Continued) Other COVID-19 response efforts supported a regional project, it is supporting efforts to by the World Bank Group include pro- improve energy efficiency and ensure safe grams in Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Ghana, working conditions in public buildings by Guatemala, Haiti, Maldives, Pakistan, and deploying efficient, clean, and smart central- Rwanda, among other countries. ized air-conditioning systems (ADB 2020c). Inter-American Development Bank In China, the ADB is providing US$150 The Inter-American Development Bank million for a project in the greater Beijing- (IDB) supports a range of projects in Latin Tianjin-Hebei region in support of air America and the Caribbean to identify best quality improvement and GHG emission practices to enhance the recovery process reduction through energy efficiency, cleaner through resilient and sustainable green transportation, renewable energy, and other growth investments. measures (ADB 2020a). By employing “build Examples, among others, include support back better” principles, this project aims to for developing renewable energy projects stimulate investment in post–COVID-19 in rural Bolivia that strengthen the use of recovery while scaling up clean energy tech- alternative energy during the COVID-19 nologies in the targeted region. Another recovery process (IDB 2020b). In addition, a project in China supports green develop- project in Barbados will set up an integrated ment in rural areas through improvement of coastal zone management (ICZM) scheme rural waste management services, promoting (IDB 2020a). This will support the country’s recovery from COVID-19 through inclusive post-COVID reopening and strengthen the and sustainable rural economic development. transition to a blue economy while also In India, the ADB is providing liquid- addressing hazards related to coastal flood- ity support in the form of nonconvertible ing and uncoordinated development. debentures amounting to US$22 million for Azure Power India Private Ltd., an inde- Asian Development Bank pendent solar power producer, to sustain The Asian Development Bank (ADB) sup- renewable energy operations and simultane- ports several projects to ensure a green ously mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. In economic activity (ADB 2020b). Advantages in Common from Green Growth Although the Middle East and North Africa is a highly heterogeneous region, reorienting its economies toward a greener economic model would benefit all of them, especially in the long term. This highly com- plex region comprises economies with (very) different income levels (from low to high); different economic structures (most notably, oil exporters versus oil importers); and different socioeconomic and Human Advancement and Sustainable Natural Capital Use in the Middle East and North Africa 39 demographic structures. Hence, it is important to acknowledge that there is no one-size-fits-all approach to addressing the region’s varying developmental and environmental challenges. Nonetheless, initiating and promoting a green transition toward a more sustainable economic model holds promise for all of the region’s economies despite their heterogeneity. Green growth has at least three distinct advantages over business-as- usual brown growth: fewer costs from environmental degradation, more growth, and more jobs. Cost savings. Green growth reduces environmental degradation and the economic costs associated with it. The cost of not decoupling growth from emissions and continuing to grow with large environmental externalities is high, as this report details in its chapters on air quality (chapter 3), marine-plastic pollution (chapter 4), and coastal erosion (chapter 5)—a cost upward of 3 percent of GDP in certain economies. The costs asso- ciated with the failure to decouple and its consequences show that the GRID approach would bring savings from avoided degradation costs. Returns on investment. Building back greener also brings higher returns on investments for the region’s economies than would result from continu- ing traditional growth patterns. Investing in a greener future both raises prospects for the restoration of the region’s natural capital and presents opportunities for important economic benefits. Investments in clean energy and biodiversity conservation have a substantially higher output multiplier than investments that support brown growth (Batini et al. 2021). This implies that returns for each dollar spent in these sectors are considerably higher—confirming that reversing biodiversity loss and environmental degradation by changing development patterns is not at odds with economic advancement. On the contrary, an increase in green spending will generate a dis- proportionately higher increase in economic activity, exceeding initial investments by 10–50 percent (Batini et al. 2021). Hence, building back greener has the potential to increase future growth, accompanied by a further increase in living standards. Thus, it is imperative to funnel policy actions away from options that are not eco-friendly and toward sustainable ones, to induce a switch away from industries that must be drastically reformed to meet climate goals (Hepburn et al. 2020). Job creation. Blue or green projects can fare better in creating jobs than traditional fiscal stimuli. It is crucial for responses to the economic chal- lenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic to address the precarious labor market situation. To approach this issue, a stronger focus on green projects is warranted not only from an environmental perspective but also regarding green projects’ potential to create more jobs than tradi- tional fiscal support measures (box 2.2). 40 Blue Skies, Blue Seas BOX 2.2 Job Creation from Green Growth Strategies A recent survey of more than 200 officials fuel industry while also paying more across from central banks, finance ministries, and all pay levels, with an average wage premium other economic experts identified five policy of around 25 percent (BW Research 2020). objectives with high potential for both eco- The 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments and nomic outcomes (such as job creation) and their environmental policies led to strong climate impacts: clean physical infrastructure, employment growth in the United States building-efficiency retrofits, investment in (Walker 2011). education and training, natural capital invest- A more recent success story is that of the ment, and clean research and development American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (Hepburn et al. 2020). These are promising (ARRA), implemented in the United States areas for projects seen as able to create more in response to the 2008–09 Global Financial jobs, deliver higher short-term returns, and Crisis. It included large investments in green bring greater long-term savings than tradi- sectors such as waste treatment, public tional fiscal stimuli can create. transportation, and energy, and it has led to The view that green policies have greater substantial employment gains, at least in the potential than traditional stimuli to create longer term (Popp et al. 2020). Although jobs is based on experience (as in the examples the short-term employment gains were described below) as well as anticipation of muted, long-run effects were positive and a changing business environment due to have been especially pronounced in areas the global commitments of major economic with a higher endowment of preexisting players to a greener orientation of global value green skills. The delayed materialization chains (GVCs). Theoretical contributions of employment gains implies that the full also highlight the greater potential of green benefits of such programs may be visible sectors for job creation—as, for example, with a lag—an important point for policy in renewable energy projects that have makers to consider. delivered three times more jobs per dollar Furthermore, green policies and than comparable ones in the fossil fuel sector investment in sustainable sectors have (Garrett-Peltier 2017). created jobs at an impressive rate around Comprehensive studies of the clean- the world. In China, the introduction of energy and other green sectors in the an emission-trading scheme in seven pilot United States provide clear evidence that regions has been a driver for employment these sectors have an advantage in terms while also distinctly reducing carbon of not only the quantity of jobs created emissions, yielding a double employment- but also the quality of those jobs. The dividend effect (Yang, Jiang, and Pan 2020; number of jobs in the clean-energy sector Yu and Li 2021). In Navarre, Spain, early has been growing faster than in the fossil adoption of renewable energy technology (continued) Human Advancement and Sustainable Natural Capital Use in the Middle East and North Africa 41 BOX 2.2 Job Creation from Green Growth Strategies (Continued) and support for the sector have transformed that recycling creates 50 times more jobs the region’s energy profile and enormously than open dumps, landfills, and similar increased sectoral employment rates disposal methods, while remanufacturing (Faulin et al. 2006). And in India, access to goods creates almost 30 times as many jobs frequent public transportation services has (Ribeiro-Broomhead and Tangri 2021). also increased nonagricultural employment In the European Union (EU), the number substantially, with women especially of jobs linked to the circular economy profiting from such developments (Lei, grew by 5 percent between 2012 and 2018, Desai, and Vanneman 2019). reaching around 4 million. Applying the Moving toward a circular economy (an principles of this concept to the whole economic system restores its resources, as EU could increase aggregate output by an opposed to a linear “throwaway” system, estimated 0.5 percent by 2030, creating as further discussed in chapter 4) also around 700,000 additional jobs (EC 2020). shows great potential for a double dividend And in Indonesia, the government’s move in the sense of reducing the adverse toward a circular economy as a green effects of inadequate waste treatment response to the COVID-19 pandemic while simultaneously creating jobs. is expected to have substantial positive It is estimated that repair—an integral effects. Compared with a business-as-usual part of a circular-economy approach— scenario, it is estimated that the adoption creates over 200 times as many jobs as of circular-economy opportunities could traditional disposal methods, which lead raise aggregate output by an additional to high plastic leakage to marine spaces US$42–US$45 billion (around 0.4 percent and uncontrolled waste burning (Ribeiro- of Indonesian gross domestic product Broomhead and Tangri 2021). Although [GDP]) in 2030 while creating 4.4 million the options for repairing goods made out new jobs between 2021 and 2030 (Bappenas of plastic are often limited, it is estimated and UNDP 2021). In sectors that negatively affect the environment—those following the traditional brown development path—green projects often bring higher economic returns than traditional projects. However, it is also important to acknowledge that such a transition would also lead to job reductions in displaced sectors. This includes the oil and gas sector (which tra- ditionally has been a major source of value added and employment in oil-exporting countries of the Middle East and North Africa) as well as related downstream industries such as the petrochemical sector, which were used as a way of diversifying the economy in these countries (as briefly discussed in chapter 4, box 4.4). 42 Blue Skies, Blue Seas Putting in place social compensation schemes for displaced workers during transition periods is hence important to cushion these adverse effects. Similarly, supporting the transition of workers out of these sec- tors into more sustainable ones through retraining programs, relocation assistance, and active promotion of new industries would facilitate a just transformation toward a greener growth model. “Blueing” the Skies and Seas The blue natural assets of the Middle East and North Africa are of particu- lar importance for a GRID path. “Blueing” the skies would have the largest effect of any environmental factor on improving public health. Moreover, blueing the skies is synonymous with reducing GHG emissions and miti- gating climate change because virtually everything that reduces the emis- sion of air pollutants also reduces the emission of climate pollutants. Blueing the seas is also of major importance because the blue economy is a significant sector in many of the region’s economies. Tourism alone, which is crucially built on the quality of the marine natural capital of the Middle East and North Africa, accounts for upward of 15 percent of GDP in some of these economies. Moreover, tourism is the main focus for diversification away from the fossil-fuel revenue dependence of many countries in the region. Marine plastics and coastal erosion are critical threats to the tourism sector as well as to other sectors such as fisheries— a particularly critical sector in terms of inclusion given its importance to low-income households as a source of employment and income. A failure to embark on a GRID path could leave the region’s econo- mies, especially the oil exporters, at risk of ending up with stranded assets. Carbon assets have been a source of prosperity in recent decades for about half the economies in the Middle East and North Africa. However, with a broadening of climate policies globally and the emergence of promis- ing new technologies to make the decoupling of energy production from the use of fossil fuels competitive, the value of these assets is expected to diminish over time (Lange, Wodon, and Carey 2018). More than 60 countries worldwide, including major players such as China, the European Union (EU), and the US have already pledged to achieve zero net emissions as well as decarbonization of value chains, with more to follow. Although global decarbonization efforts will not be in full force immediately, the global trend toward reduced fossil fuel use will happen gradually, and it is important for the region’s economies to concomitantly start their energy transition so as not to end up with stranded assets and uncompetitive national economies. Box 2.3 provides some details on the carbon wealth of the region’s economies and how overreliance on their fossil fuel resources could soon become a pitfall. Hence, to reduce environmental pressures and Human Advancement and Sustainable Natural Capital Use in the Middle East and North Africa 43 BOX 2.3 Carbon Wealth in the Middle East and North Africa and Its Potential Pitfalls Carbon wealth (rents from underground oil-, methane gas deposits must remain in the natural gas-, and coal-based assets) make up ground (Welsby et al. 2021). a large share of the Middle East and North Therefore, large parts of the fossil fuel Africa’s total wealth—almost 30 percent in reserves in Middle East and North Africa 2014 (primarily in the form of oil and gas), countries risk being stranded (Lange, surpassing other forms of capital such as pro- Wodon, and Carey 2018), which puts future duced or human capital (Lange, Wodon, and incomes derived from this wealth at risk. Carey 2018). For some of the region’s major Downstream industries currently relying on oil exporters (such as Iraq, Kuwait, or Saudi cheap fossil fuel energy—that is, subsidized Arabia), yearly fossil fuel rents (the income access to oil and gas or the energy derived derived from this wealth) are estimated to from them—may come under increasing exceed 40 percent of gross domestic product pressure in the coming decades, making (GDP). Because these figures do not consider an economic diversification critical. In a the full value added of downstream and other world that is taking serious steps toward connected industries, the total contribution net-zero emissions and decarbonization of of carbon-related sectors to GDP is in fact value chains, this pressure increases the risk even larger. of being left with stranded assets. The exploitation of these assets has One of the main developments driving the been an engine for growth in recent risk of stranded assets and nations is the push decades, but this growth trajectory is in the international agenda to move toward not sustainable either environmentally or emission neutrality and decarbonization of economically over the next couple of global value chains (GVCs)—as more than decades. For one thing, fossil fuels are 60 countries have already pledged to do, a major contributor to greenhouse gas including major economies such as China, (GHG) emissions and hence to human- the European Union (EU), and the United induced climate change. To meet the States. The EU’s European Green Deal is goal of keeping the rise in average global among the trailblazers in this respect. The ground temperature below 2 degrees Green Deal aims to make Europe climate Celsius, an estimated 82 percent of known neutral by 2050 and entails a fundamental global coal deposits, 33 percent of known overhaul of its energy system, which will oil reserves, and 49 percent of known gas affect its key energy suppliers (in the Middle reserves must remain unburned (McGlade East and North Africa, most notably Algeria and Ekins 2015). To keep the temperate and Libya). increase below 1.5 degrees Celsius, nearly The European Commission has also 90 percent of the 2018 reserve base of coal proposed establishing a border carbon deposits must remain unextracted, and adjustment mechanism in the Green Deal around 60 percent of both oil and fossil that introduces a tax or tariff on imports to (continued) 44 Blue Skies, Blue Seas BOX 2.3 Carbon Wealth in the Middle East and North Africa and Its Potential Pitfalls ( Continued) the EU based on the emissions embedded in 2030, while most of the change in oil and those products (EC 2021). The rationale for gas demand will happen between 2030 this carbon tariff is twofold: First, it would and 2050. prevent carbon leakage and disincentivize The decades after 2030 will be consumers from switching to foreign characterized by lower demand in the suppliers, hence also protecting domestic EU for oil (dropping by almost 80 production. Second, it would incentivize percent) and for gas (dropping by around other countries globally to also decarbonize 60 percent) (Leonard et al. 2021). Oil- their value chains. However, even for those and gas-producing countries will feel the oil exporting countries in the Middle East repercussions through both the direct and North Africa for which Europe is not channel of lower exports and the indirect a main trading partner, the EU’s transition channel of lower global prices for fossil away from fossil fuels and toward renewable fuels. It is hence important for the Middle energy sources will have an impact, if only East and North Africa’s oil exporting a small one, because Europe accounts countries—but also for its oil-dependent for around 20 percent of global crude oil economies with carbon-intensive imports. industries—to start changing their The change in the European energy production base and their economic mix. landscape will be incremental, with the One particularly promising way to do so European Commission projecting that is to intensify the expansion of renewable about half the EU’s energy in 2030 will energy sources, for which the region holds still be provided from fossil fuels. The use great prospects (as further discussed within of coal must be substantially reduced by chapter 3’s “Policy Review” section). economic risks, concomitant actions to reduce the carbon intensity of current processes and production patterns and to prepare for economic diversification are crucial to make Middle East and North Africa econo- mies in general—but the oil exporting ones in particular—ready for a decarbonized future. CONCLUSION Blue skies will improve residents’ health and resilience in the Middle East and North Africa, reduce economic costs, and make the cities better places to live and work. Better air quality will reduce the impacts of respiratory diseases on lives and livelihoods. Those respiratory diseases include Human Advancement and Sustainable Natural Capital Use in the Middle East and North Africa 45 COVID-1918 (whose severity is exacerbated by air pollution) and other dis- eases to which air pollution has been linked, including cardiovascular dis- eases, ischemic heart diseases, diabetes, kidney diseases, and many others.19 With better health, people become more resilient. Improved air qual- ity benefits everybody but especially the poor, who often work outdoors. Air pollution can also decrease earnings, both when workers are unwell and when they must take time off to care for family members, includ- ing children, who are exposed to air pollution. With a large share of the workforce in the informal sector in many Middle East and North Africa economies (Gatti et al. 2014), these sick days are equivalent to lost income. Another concern for gender inclusion is that women generally assume responsibility for the care of sick relatives. Thus, women’s ability to work is particularly affected by family illness related to air pollution. Importantly, the benefits of better air quality are inclusive. Reducing air pollution will also reduce the costs it incurs, which are upward of 3 percent of GDP in some of the region’s economies (as fur- ther discussed in chapter 3). Moreover, enhancing air quality can make countries more attractive to tourists (Łapko et al. 2020), while the ability to manage pollution will influence their ability to grow and hence a city’s competitiveness (Lozano-Gracia and Soppelsa 2019). Key policies to improve air quality include a switch away from pollut- ing fossil fuels (which also contribute to global warming); better public transportation and urban planning; and city greening—all elements of greener development and improved urban livability. Blue seas, including well-managed coastlines and reduced plastic pol- lution, will increase the resilience and sustainability of coastal economies. Every Middle East and North Africa economy has a coastline; each has access to an ocean or a sea. Well-managed coastlines and marine eco- systems—free of plastic pollution—ensure the sustainability of coastal cities’ key economic sectors such as beach tourism, ports, and fisheries, as well as the jobs dependent on those sectors. They also increase the resilience of coastal areas to the impacts of rising sea levels from climate change. Improved solid waste management, including management of plastics, reduces the incidence of flooding by unblocking drainage chan- nels, further increasing resilience. Blue skies and blue seas also demonstrate the extent to which manage- ment of all aspects of natural capital are interconnected. Poor land man- agement, an energy mix that is overdependent on fossil fuels, and poor urban and transportation planning damage air quality, public health, and productivity. The result is that the Middle East and North Africa’s skies are not blue. Poor management of water resources and water quality and inadequate management of solid waste and plastics reduce coastal resil- ience and the broader blue economy. The result is that the Middle East 46 Blue Skies, Blue Seas and North Africa’s seas are not blue. Yet there are opportunities, as the region recovers from COVID-19, to make the policy changes necessary to “blue” its skies and seas. Hence, it is important for the Middle East and North Africa region to conserve and revive its blue assets to improve livelihoods and reduce the burden of pollution on its residents and the environment. Given the opportunity for transformational change that recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic presents, it is crucial for the region’s economies to induce a meaningful stimulus for reversing some of the damages to its blue assets caused by unsustainable past growth paths. These changes will not only benefit the region’s environment and ecosystems but also help strengthen its economies to withstand the challenges ahead. With more and more countries worldwide pledging to move toward greener economic development, the Middle East and North Africa would otherwise risk being left behind with stranded assets and outgrown busi- ness models. Getting ahead of this risk should be a priority for the region’s policy makers. This report identifies some of the most severe deficiencies that also hinder the region’s continued rise in prosperity and points to some of the most promising possibilities to overcome those deficiencies. NOTES 1. The national capital accounting framework was developed by the Wealth Accounting and the Valuation of Ecosystem Services (WAVES) Secretariat. WAVES is a World Bank-led global partnership that aims to promote sus- tainable development by ensuring that natural resources are mainstreamed in development planning and national economic accounts. It is now part of the broader World Bank umbrella initiative, the Global Program for Sustainability. For more information, see “Wealth Accounting and WAVES” on the WAVES website: https://www.wavespartnership.org/en /wealth-accounting-and-WAVES. 2. Economic growth data are from the Human Development Data Center, United Nations Development Programme, http://hdr.undp.org/en/data. 3. The GCC comprises the countries of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The Maghreb economies include Algeria, Libya, Malta, Morocco, and Tunisia. The Mashreq economies include Djibouti, the Arab Republic of Egypt, Iraq, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, the Syrian Arab Republic, West Bank and Gaza, and the Republic of Yemen. 4. The information and communication technology (ICT) sector would benefit from increases in fixed and mobile broadband transmission capacity as well as greater competition, and small and medium enterprises still have only a limited online presence in most countries. The quality of trade and transpor- tation infrastructure—as measured by the infrastructure performance sub- index of the World Bank’s Logistics Performance Index (https://lpi .worldbank .org/)—has improved since 2007. However, there are wide Human Advancement and Sustainable Natural Capital Use in the Middle East and North Africa 47 differences between economies, and performance appears to have deterio- rated since 2015 in some of them. The poorest performing category in this regard was rail infrastructure, with only 12 percent of survey respondents rating its quality as “very high” or “high” (Arvis et al. 2018). Transportation presents opportunities for improvements in rail freight, urban metro trans- portation, and transitions to e-mobility that could also improve air quality. A 2019 OECD study, “Enhancing Connectivity through Infrastructure Investment,” estimated total investment needs in the Middle East and North Africa region of US$100 billion over the next five years to upgrade and main- tain infrastructure, with transportation and electricity accounting for around 43 percent of total needs, followed by ICT (9 percent) and water and sanitation (5 percent) (OECD 2019). There are also constraints regarding “soft” infra- structure in the regulatory environment and in trade and customs facilita- tion. However, the region’s economies have already started investing in their transportation infrastructure, particularly in extensions of the rail network. 5. Country-specific average years of schooling from United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Human Development Center data (http://hdr.undp.org/en/data). 6. Literacy data are from the World Development Indicators database, http:// wdi.worldbank.org. 7. Regional and global labor and business leadership data are from World Bank Enterprise Surveys: https://www.enterprisesurveys.org/en /enterprisesurveys. 8. Data on increased poverty rates and food prices are from, respectively, the World Development Indicators database (http://wdi.worldbank.org) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) Food Price Index (https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/). 9. For comprehensive analyses of the Middle East and North Africa’s economic development on a regional level as well as in individual economies, consult, for example, the World Bank’s “MENA Quarterly Economic Brief” (https:// www.worldbank.org/en/region/mena/publication/mena-quarterly -economic-brief) and semiannual “MENA Economic Update” series (https://www.worldbank.org/en/region/mena/publication/mena-economic -monitor). 10. Despite an overall increase, NOX emissions in the Mashreq have decreased since 2010, driven mainly by decreases in the Islamic Republic of Iran and stagnant trends in Egypt. In the Islamic Republic of Iran, NOX emissions have been reduced mainly in the agriculture sector, stemming from less- intensive use of fertilizers that account for a large amount of soil emissions. In Egypt, industrial NOX emissions decreased beginning in 2010. This was probably because of advances such as the switch from burning heavy fuel oil (mazout) to using compressed natural gas in brick factories (see Higazy et al. 2019), while NOX emissions stemming from agriculture remained stagnant. In addition, recent SO2 emissions reductions in the Mashreq were driven primarily by the Islamic Republic of Iran and Syria (where the ongoing con- flict disrupted industrial activity, most probably causing the reduction in SO2 emissions). In the Islamic Republic of Iran, the switch toward gas for energy production (away from heavy oils), desulfurization of flue gas, and increased use of cleaner fuels for energy production have helped reduce SO2 emissions (Delfi et al. 2018). In the Maghreb, Morocco has contributed most to the subregion’s stagnant or decreasing trends in SO2 emissions. It has set some of the strictest sulfur limits in gasoline and diesel in recent years (see the 48 Blue Skies, Blue Seas chapter 3 section on policies to reduce vehicle emissions), potentially con- tributing to these trends. 11. Land degradation is defined as the reduction or loss of the biological or economic productivity of lands, such as long-term loss of natural vegetation, arising from human activities. Although land management is discussed briefly here, it is not the focus of this report and has been addressed in two recent regional publications: “Sustainable Land Management and Restoration in the Middle East and North Africa Region: Issues, Challenges and Recommendations” (World Bank 2019c) and “Sand and Dust Storms in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region: Sources, Costs and Solutions” (World Bank 2019b). 12. According to national reports to the Convention on Biological Diversity (https://www.cbd.int/countries/), the Middle East and North Africa countries with the greatest plant diversity, each with more than 3,000 species, include Algeria, Egypt, Lebanon, Morocco, Syria, and Tunisia. Animal diversity is highest, with more than 5,000 species each, in Algeria, Lebanon, Syria, and Tunisia; mammal diversity is particularly high in the Arabian peninsula. 13. Data on land under protection, by country, come from the World Database on Protected Areas, International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN): https://www.iucn.org/theme/protected-areas/our-work/world -database-protected-areas; and “Terrestrial Protected Areas (% of Total Land Area) – Country Ranking,” Index Mundi: https://www.indexmundi .com/facts/indicators/ER.LND.PTLD.ZS/rankings. 14. Water stress occurs when water withdrawals for human, agricultural, and industrial uses are high relative to the renewable water resources—that is, when there’s a high ratio of annual water withdrawals to average annual sur- face freshwater availability. 15. The region’s five countries among the top 10 GHG emitters per capita are Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Oman is ranked 12th among the world’s top GHG-emitting countries. Except for the Islamic Republic of Iran, per capita emissions in the Mashreq and Maghreb subregions are less than one-fourth those in the GCC, as follows (by descending order of magnitude): Iraq, Lebanon, Algeria, Jordan, Tunisia, Egypt, Morocco, Syria, the Republic of Yemen, and Djibouti. GHG emis- sion data are from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) at the Oak Ridge (Tennessee) National Laboratory, Climate and Environmental Sciences Division, US Department of Energy: https://cdiac .ess-dive.lbl.gov/home.html. 16. The carbon emissions data presented in this section are based on territorial data by the Global Carbon Project (https://www.icos-cp.eu/science-and- impact/global-carbon-budget/2019) using a production-based approach. This means that the numbers do not adjust for international trade and e missions embodied in traded goods and services. However, when using data that incorporate such effects, leading to what are called consumption-based carbon emissions estimates, the section’s findings are qualitatively unchanged. The Middle East and North Africa is the world’s only region not decoupling at all when using these trade-adjusted estimates as well, while other regions have either absolutely or relatively decoupled. This is because—although there are differences in the levels of carbon emissions between these approaches for some countries (such as Bahrain or Qatar)—the differences in trends (changes over time) are not pronounced. The analysis presented Human Advancement and Sustainable Natural Capital Use in the Middle East and North Africa 49 here, however, focuses on the evolution of carbon emissions over time, explaining the rather marginal differences between the two approaches regarding the decoupling process. One pragmatic reason for using the pro- duction-based approach is the much broader coverage of countries for this dataset, because the construction of consumption-based carbon budgets requires detailed information on trade between countries, which is often not available for individual countries. Such a broad coverage is preferable for the comparison of regions across the world. 17. PM2.5 refers to fine particulate matter, having a diameter of 2.5 micrograms or less. 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Chen. 2020. “The Employment Impact of Green Fiscal Push: Evidence from the American Recovery Act.” Working Paper 27321, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA. Ribeiro-Broomhead, J., and N. Tangri. 2021. “Zero Waste and Economic Recovery: The Job Creation Potential of Zero Waste Solutions.” Report, Global Alliance for Incinerator Alternatives (GAIA), Berkeley, CA. Roudies, N. 2013. “Vision 2020 for Tourism in Morocco: Focus on Sustainability and Ecotourism.” Presentation, Expert Group Meeting on Sustainable 54 Blue Skies, Blue Seas Tourism: Ecotourism, Poverty Reduction and Environmental Protection, New York, October 29. Saab, N., A. Badran, and A.-K. Sadik, eds. 2019. “Environmental Education for Sustainable Development in Arab Countries.” Annual report of the Arab Forum for Environment and Development (AFED), Beirut, Lebanon. Sagynbekov, K. 2018. “Childhood and Maternal Health in the Middle East and North Africa.” Report, Milken Institute, Santa Monica, CA. Scott, D. 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Convergence: Five Critical Steps Toward Integrating Lagging and Leading Areas in the Middle East and North Africa. Washington, DC: World Bank. World Bank. 2020b. Trading Together: Reviving Middle East and North Africa Regional Integration in the Post-Covid Era. MENA Economic Update, October 2020. Washington, DC: World Bank. World Bank. 2021a. “Assistance Strategy for the West Bank and Gaza for the Period FY22–25.” Report No. 156451-GZ, World Bank, Washington, DC. World Bank. 2021b. “Environmental Sustainability and Urban Resilience DPF.” Details page, Project No. P174000, World Bank, Washington, DC. World Bank. 2021c. “Greater Cairo Air Pollution Management and Climate Change Project.” Details page, Project No. P172548, World Bank, Washington, DC. World Bank. 2021d. “MENA Crisis Tracker – 11/8/2021.” Newsletter, Office of the Chief Economist, Middle East and North Africa Region, World Bank, Washington, DC. World Bank. 2021e. “Morocco Green Generation Program-for-Results.” Details page, Project No. P170419, World Bank, Washington, DC. World Bank. 2021f. “Panama Pandemic Response and Growth Recovery Development Policy Operation.” Details page, Project No. P174107, World Bank, Washington, DC. World Bank and IMF (International Monetary Fund). 2021. “From COVID-19 Crisis Response to Resilient Recovery: Saving Lives and Livelihoods while Supporting Green, Resilient and Inclusive Development (GRID).” Document No. DC2021-0004 for the April 9, 2021, Meeting of the Development Committee (Joint Ministerial Committee of the Boards of Governors of the Bank and the Fund on the Transfer of Real Resources to Developing Countries), Washington, DC. https://www.devcommittee.org/sites/dc/files /download/Documents/2021-03/DC2021-0004%20Green%20Resilient%20 final.pdf. Wu, X., R. C. Nethery, B. M. Sabath, D. Braun, and F. Dominici. 2020. “Exposure to Air Pollution and COVID-19 Mortality in the United States.” Science Advances 6 (45): 1–6. Yang, X., P. Jiang, and Y. Pan. 2020. “Does China’s Carbon Emission Trading Policy Have an Employment Double Dividend and a Porter Effect?” Energy Policy 142: 111492. Yu, D.-J., and J. Li. 2021. “Evaluating the Employment Effect of China’s Carbon Emission Trading Policy: Based on the Perspective of Spatial Spillover.” Journal of Cleaner Production 292: 126052. CHAPTER 3 Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities OVERVIEW Ambient air pollution (AAP)—or outdoor air pollution—causes severe adverse health effects including premature deaths in the Middle East and North Africa. The region’s urban air is among the world’s most polluted, exposing its residents to air pollution levels 10 times higher than considered safe. No capital or major city in the region for which data are available meets guidelines on maximum safe particulate matter (PM) concentrations. Furthermore, these capitals and major cities are often considerably more polluted than their income levels would suggest. This chapter documents the effects of AAP in terms of lives lost and reduced health as well as reduced labor supply and productivity. AAP is estimated to induce several hundred thousand deaths in the Middle East and North Africa every year. It also significantly affects morbidity, increasing the risk for several potentially deadly diseases and leading to large numbers of hospitalizations, sick days, and other adverse health impacts. As a result, AAP is one of the largest threats to the livelihoods of large portions of the region’s population. It also disproportionately affects the poor, who often cannot afford protective measures and often perform manual labor outdoors, hence increasing their intake of air pollutants through heavy breathing. Gender inequality is yet another concern because it is usually women who take care of family members who become sick (predominantly the youngest and the oldest), further leading to lost productivity and income. As such, the effects of elevated AAP are in stark contrast to those of a green, resilient, and inclusive development (GRID) framework1 along 57 58 Blue Skies, Blue Seas many of its dimensions. They contribute to a degradation of livability in the Middle East and North Africa. Given the severe negative impacts of AAP, it is alarming that not much is known about its exact sources in most of the region’s cities. This paucity of information severely hampers policy makers’ ability to formulate responses to effectively and efficiently lower concentrations of air pollutants. Proper and thorough research on the various sources of air pollution should include source apportionment studies, emissions inventories, and dispersion modeling—all of which should be supported and expanded to uncover the main contributors to air pollution in the region’s cities. Despite some advances in this respect, overall knowledge remains sparse, and this calls for broad research efforts. Despite the limited information about the sources of air pollution in the Middle East and North Africa, this chapter identifies several impor- tant priority policies that the region’s decision makers should approach in a timely manner: • First, raising public awareness about air pollution and its source—and how individual actions can contribute toward solving it—is important to both inform and mobilize the population, whose support is critical to the success of most policies. • Second, the pervasiveness of fossil fuel subsidies and low environmen- tal taxes are natural points of departure for reforms that simultaneously lower the tax burden in other areas, in the sense of “eco-social” tax reforms. Reforms of such subsidies and taxes have the dual advantage of decreasing air pollution and easing strained public budgets. They also have ramifications for the issue of marine plastics by raising the prices of feedstock and energy input for the production of plastics. It is vital to plan such subsidy reforms with a view toward the effects on especially low-income households, and to make proactive provisions, such as reducing income taxes, or offering compensation, which is especially important for low-income households. • Third, strengthening public transportation systems is critical to induce a modal shift away from personal, motorized transportation and toward more sustainable transportation patterns. • Fourth, more stringent industrial emissions standards should be imple- mented and the existing ones enforced properly. • Fifth, strengthening solid waste management (SWM) in the region’s economies is imperative to reduce uncontrolled burning of both munici- pal and agricultural waste and has cross-benefits by reducing the amount of plastics flowing into the region’s seas (as chapter 4 will discuss). Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 59 Once the sources of air pollution are identified through the increased deployment of suitable studies, more-targeted policies can be imple- mented to tackle polluted air on a more sector-specific basis. The con- cluding section of this chapter discusses several such policies deemed suitable in the Middle East and North Africa context, separated along the lines of the sectors whose emissions are most likely to contribute to dirty skies: vehicles, industrial processes (including energy production), and uncontrolled burning of waste. Policy makers in the region should give these possibilities the very serious consideration they deserve, sup- port research, and act to mitigate the AAP obstacle to a GRID path. To get blue skies and healthy, prosperous cities in the region tomorrow, the time to act on the threats posed by air pollution is today. HOW POLLUTED ARE THE CITIES’ SKIES? Visible or not, dissatisfaction with bad air is real. Air quality is key to human well-being, but most Middle East and North Africa residents, especially in densely populated urban areas, live with elevated levels of air pollution that damage productivity, health, and quality of life. And they are increasingly unhappy with the situation: The 2018 Gallup World Poll showed that people in some of the region’s economies (among those from which Gallup collected data) are particularly unhappy with air quality.2 They include 6 in 10 Kuwaitis and Lebanese; 5 in 10 Algerians and West Bank and Gaza residents; 4 in 10 Jordanians and Saudi Arabians; and 3 in 10 Iranians, Moroccans, and Tunisians. Air pollution is typically higher in urban agglomerations because of the greater concentration of economic and human activities. Generally, the adverse health implications of AAP are especially critical in popula- tion centers because they are hot spots for emissions, particularly from traffic and industry (see, for example, von Schneidemesser et al. 2019). Urbanization is quickly moving forward in the Middle East and North Africa, and hence the population’s exposure to higher pollution levels exacerbates the need for effective abatement policies. However, air pollution is also substantial in the region’s rural areas and is reinforced by human sources and natural causes like sandstorms. The human sources include burning of agricultural waste (mostly in the region’s low- and middle-income economies). Notably, however, these rural sources often influence air pollution in cities like those in the Nile Delta, where crop residue burnings substantially deteriorate the air qual- ity in Cairo (box 3.14). Ambient (outdoor) air pollution is the main concern for most Middle East and North Africa economies, with household air pollution being of 60 Blue Skies, Blue Seas major concern in only a few. Most of them have quasi-universal access to nonsolid fuels for domestic energy needs (UNEP 2017). In Djibouti, the Republic of Yemen, and some parts of rural Morocco, however, burning of solid fuels for cooking, heating, or both is still common, leading to indoor air pollution that constitutes a health threat in these countries in addition to outdoor air pollution. The focus of this report will be on AAP, highlighting the importance of identifying its sources and summarizing policy options for combating it in the Middle East and North Africa. Global Comparisons The Middle East and North Africa exhibits the world’s second highest levels of air pollution. Only South Asia has higher concentrations of fine particulate matter of 2.5 microns or less in diameter (PM2.5), which is considered to have the largest health effects globally. Nearly the entire population of the Middle East and North Africa is exposed to levels of air pollution deemed unsafe (World Bank data based on GBD 2018). The region’s air quality is affected by naturally caused dust storms linked to windblown geological dust and salt from the arid and semiarid landscapes (World Bank 2019b). Yet human activities that affect air quality range from industries to road-transport emissions and operation of power plants, among other sources, especially in urbanized areas (Saab and Habib 2020). The newly revised guidelines from the World Health Organization (WHO) stipulate that the mean annual exposure to PM2.5 should not exceed 5 micrograms per cubic meter of air (µg/m3), a measurement fur- ther discussed in box 3.1.3 Yet the average resident of the Middle East and North Africa is exposed to air with concentrations more than 10 times this threshold (figure 3.1). In fact, no region meets these guidelines; even North America and Western Europe exceed them slightly. Comparing the Region’s Major Cities Generally, air pollution concentrations are high throughout the Middle East and North Africa, but there is also substantial variance between the region’s economies. Comparing the capital cities (or other major cities when data for capitals were not available), reveals that Cairo exhibits the region’s highest concentrations of PM2.5, with Baghdad and Riyadh fol- lowing close behind (figure 3.2). At the other end of the spectrum, the air in Tehran, Amman, and Marrakech is substantially less polluted. However, PM concentrations in the sample’s cleaner cities are still about six times the WHO recommended limit, carrying severe health risks for inhabit- ants and affecting tourism in areas with those conditions (Sajjad, Noreen, and Zaman 2014). Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 61 FIGURE 3.1 Ambient Air Pollution (PM2.5) in Urban Areas, by World Region, 2016 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 ific sia an ica ica pe sia icac A Pa l be Af r er ro A Af r nd nt ra rib h t Ama r n E u ut h a e C o h r So ara n a C e i h N or t sted ah st As d e a n nd t N t a n We Sub - Ea ro p ica a Ea s S Eu er le Am id d ati n M L Source: Based on 2016 data from the Global Health Observatory database, World Health Organization (WHO), https://apps.who.int/gho/data/view.main. Note: Particulate matter (PM) is made up of solid or liquid matter associated with Earth’s atmosphere and suspended as atmospheric aerosol (the particulate/air mixture). PM2.5 is a fine particle of 2.5 microns or less in diameter. The orange line denotes the 2021 WHO annual mean threshold of 5 µg/m3 (micrograms per cubic meter of air). Because PM2.5 has health impacts even at very low concentrations, no threshold has been identified below which no damage to health is observed. The WHO guidelines aim to achieve the lowest PM concentrations possible (WHO 2021). “North America” includes Canada and the United States. Cairo residents suffer from health impacts on their respiratory and cardiovascular systems due to AAP (Aboel Fetouh et al. 2013). Around 11 percent of premature mortalities there can be attributed to PM2.5 pollution in the Greater Cairo region (Wheida et al. 2018). Elevated air pollution and related health impacts are also observed in other major cities and towns in the region for which data on PM2.5 concentration are available (figure 3.3). None of these cities meets the WHO guidelines. Only Al-Jahra (Kuwait) and Salé (Morocco) exhibit air pollution levels somewhat close to the WHO threshold. Comparisons with Cities and Countries of Comparable Income Most of the region’s cities exhibit disproportionately high air pollution concentrations relative to other cities with similar incomes. Figure 3.4 Concentration of PM2.5 (µg/m 3) 62 Blue Skies, Blue Seas FIGURE 3.2 Ambient Air Pollution (PM2.5) in Capital Cities of Selected Middle East and North Africa Countries, 2018 80 15.2x 14.8x 14.6x 70 12.2x 12.6x 60 50 40 7.6x 6.4x 7.0x 30 5.6x 5.6x 20 10 0 bia ma iro ran ad an t t ru ca dh ni s h a a d i s D an r C e h T gh m m Be u Riy a u bu M a M − T A − rea te − A − − − R IRN − B − N −R B N U UN RE BH − G L IRQ JO OM S A T A EG Y Source: Based on 2018 data from the Ambient Air Quality Database of the World Health Organization’s (WHO) Global Health Observatory, https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/air-pollution/who-air -quality-database. Note: The orange line denotes the 2021 WHO annual mean threshold for PM2.5 (particulate matter of 2.5  microns or less in diameter) of 5 µg/m3 (micrograms per cubic meter of air). Values above bars indicate multiples of that threshold found in each respective city. The selected countries are those for which ground monitoring data for capital cities were available. Countries are labeled using ISO alpha-3 codes, as listed on the Abbreviations page in the front matter of this report. shows the PM2.5 concentration of capitals and other major cities around the world plotted against the income level of the countries where they are located. The blue line indicates the average or expected degree of air pol- lution in a city given its level of income (measured as gross domestic product [GDP] per capita). Within the Middle East and North Africa, some economies in the Maghreb and Mashreq subregions exhibit lower AAP levels than oth- ers with similar income levels, with the Arab Republic of Egypt and Iraq being notable exceptions. However, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries (Bahrain, Oman, and Saudi Arabia) exhibit much higher pollution levels than their income levels would suggest. In general, air quality has deteriorated and emission levels have risen in the Middle East and North Africa over the past two decades (see chapter 2, figure 2.6). However, there have also been some exceptions. The region’s economies as well as areas within them have shown spa- tial heterogeneity, according to recent trend analysis of different proxy measures for PM air pollution derived from different satellite products. Concentration of PM 32.5 (µg/m ) Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 63 FIGURE 3.3 Ambient Air Pollution (PM2.5) in Non-Capital Major Cities of Selected Middle East and North Africa Countries, 2018 ARE − Al Ain ARE − Al Gharbia BHR − Hamad Town BHR − Hidd BHR − Ma’ameer EGY − Delta Region IRN − Ahvaz IRN − Ghom IRN − Isfahan IRN − Karaj IRN − Kermanshah IRN − Mashhad IRN − Shiraz IRN − Tabriz JOR − Al-Zarqa’ JOR − Irbid KWT − Al-Ahmadi KWT − Al-Jahra LBN − Saida LBN − Zahle MAR − Casablanca MAR − Fes MAR − Marrakech MAR − Meknes MAR − Sale MAR − Tanger QAT − Al-Bidda QAT − Madinat Khaifa QAT − Muaither SAU − Dammam SAU − Jeddah SAU − Makkah SAU − Medina TUN − Sfax TUN − Sousse 0 25 50 75 100 Concentration of PM2.5 (µg/m 3) Source: Based on 2018 data from the Ambient Air Quality Database of the World Health Organization’s (WHO) Global Health Observatory, https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/air-pollution/who-air -quality-database. Note: The orange line denotes 2021 WHO annual mean threshold for PM2.5 (particulate matter of 2.5 microns or less in diameter) of 5 µg/m3 (micrograms per cubic meter of air). The selected countries are those for which ground monitoring data for capital cities were available. Countries are labeled using ISO alpha-3 codes, as listed on the Abbreviations page in the front matter of this report. Air quality has generally improved in Egypt (despite some pockets where it appears to have worsened), while it has deteriorated in pockets of Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the Syrian Arab Republic—in some periods more than others. Jordan’s air quality, on the other hand, has appeared steady during the studied period, 2001–18 (Shaheen, Wu, and Aldabash 2020). 64 Blue Skies, Blue Seas FIGURE 3.4 Global Comparison of Ambient Air Pollution (PM2.5) in Capital or Other Major Cities in Relation to Countries’ Income Levels 150 IND 125 UGA 100 MNG EGY 75 CHN SAU PAK IRQ ARE BGD BRAGHA BHR 50 NPL VNM IDNCMR BOL ZAF MDG TUN GTM PER MKD OMNLKA JOR LBN CHL POL MMR PHL IRN THA ISRMNE 25 TZA VEN HRV SEN SLV BTN UKR GEO MEX TUR ROU SVN KOR HND JAM LTU MLT BEL DUE SGPSRB ECU BLR BGR HUNCOL LVA SVKCYPCZE KEN PRY ARG RUS PRTITA FRA ISL ALB AUTMDV PAN ESP GBR NLD CHE FJI MYS NZL AU DSNK NOR IRL LUXURY MUS EST SWE USA0 FIN CAN 7 8 9 10 11 12 Source: Based on 2018 data from the Ambient Air Quality Database of the World Health Organization’s (WHO) Global Health Observatory, https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/air-pollution/who-air-quality-database; and the World Bank’s 2021 World Development Indicators database, https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators. Note: The orange line denotes the 2021 WHO annual mean threshold for PM2.5 (particulate matter of 2.5 microns or less in diameter) of 5 µg/m 3 (micrograms per cubic meter of air). The blue line is fitted using locally weighted regressions. The selected countries are those for which ground monitoring data were available. Countries are labeled using ISO alpha-3 codes. Those in the Middle East and North Africa are listed on the Abbreviations page in the front matter of this report. Clearer Skies from the COVID-19 Lockdowns During and in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, many of the region’s economies administered strict lockdowns and other containment mea- sures that brought significant emissions reductions and improved air quality (at least in terms of some air pollutant concentrations) in cities across the region. Directly after the onset of the COVID-19 in March 2020, observed nitrogen dioxide (NO2) levels were substantially lower than in December of the previous year and have increased little since (World Bank 2020a). In Cairo and Alexandria, Egypt, NO2 emissions decreased by 15 percent and 33 percent, respectively. In addition, carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions decreased by approximately 5 percent and 4 percent, respectively, in each governorate (Mostafa, Gamal, and Wafiq 2020). And environmental noise and pollution of beaches, surface water, and groundwater also decreased. Concentration of PM2.5 (µg/m 3) Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 65 In Morocco, studies reported stark decreases of air pollutants in several cities, including Marrakech, Casablanca, and Salè (Khomsi et al. 2020; Otmani et al. 2020)—a finding confirmed on a national level (Sekmoudi et al. 2020). In Tunisian cities, the imposed measures, including a general lock- down, caused marked decreases, lowering NO2 and sulfur dioxide (SO2) levels by around 50 percent in Sfax, 40 percent in Tunis, and 20 percent in Sousse. Furthermore, PM2.5 concentrations dropped by around 20 percent, 7 percent, and 23 percent, respectively, in those cities while the concentrations of particles with a diameter of 10 microns or less (PM10) did not significantly change (Chekir and Salem 2020). As those authors put it, “In other words, one side effect of this horrific virus is cleaner Tunisian air” (Chekir and Salem 2020, 7). In the Islamic Republic of Iran, Tehran exhibited significant decreases in SO2 (varying by a range of 5–28 percent in different parts of the city); NO2 (by 1–33 percent); PM10 (by 1.4–30 percent); and carbon monoxide (CO) (by 5–41 percent), while ozone and PM2.5 levels increased by a range of 0.5–103 percent and by 2–50 percent, respectively (Broomandi et al. 2020). Those authors attribute the latter two findings to unfavora- ble meteorological conditions and conclude that air quality improved overall, noting that these experiences “clearly showed that it is possible to have significant air pollution reduction in megacities by effective traffic control programs along with the promotions of green commut- ing and the technologies to expand remote working” (Broomandi et al. 2020, 1800). As the measures to curtail COVID-19 are lifted, air pollution levels are expected to bounce back. The question is, to what extent? These significant reductions demonstrate that it is possible to rapidly reduce air pollution. Furthermore, the hope is that emissions will rebound to lower than prepandemic levels in the medium term as governments focus on greening their recoveries from COVID-19. THE HEALTH AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF DIRTY SKIES AAP has emerged as a major cause of illness and death globally (Boogard, Walker, and Cohen 2019) and in the Middle East and North Africa specifically. It has also been found to disproportionately affect lower- income groups (Hajat, Hsia, and O’Neill 2015; Miranda et al. 2011). Various air pollutants affect human health, but PM—especially the very small PM2.5—has been found to be especially hazardous, having the largest health effects globally (GBD 2018). Box 3.1 compares PM2.5 with PM10. 66 Blue Skies, Blue Seas BOX 3.1 Different Sources and Health Effects of Different PM Diameters Particulate matter (PM) comes in differ- associated with the largest health effects ent sizes, often stemming from different (GBD 2018). Although PM10 also poses sources. The two most often used distinc- a threat to human health, its bigger size tions are PM10 (particles with a diameter typically leads to it being deposited on equal to or less than 10 microns) and PM2.5 the surfaces of the upper region of the (fine inhalable particles with a diameter lung, having less severe repercussions equal to or less than 2.5 microns). Figure than PM2.5, which is deposited in the B3.1.1 shows comparisons to the size of a lower parts of the lung. Short- or long- human hair and grains of sand. term exposure to PM10 or PM2.5 can have These differences in size translate substantial health effects, with the effects into different health effects. Generally, of long-term exposure generally being PM2.5 is the outdoor air pollutant globally more severe. FIGURE B3.1.1 Size Comparisons for PM10 and PM2.5 Particles PM2.5 Combustion particles, organic Human hair compounds, metals, etc. 50–70 µm <2.5 µm (microns) in diameter (microns) in diameter PM10 Dust, pollen, mold, etc. <10 µm (microns) in diameter 90 µm (microns) in diameter Fine beach sand Source: “Particulate Matter (PM) Basics,” Particulate Matter (PM) Pollution, US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) website: https:// www.epa.gov/pm-pollution/particulate-matter-pm-basics. (continued) Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 67 BOX 3.1 Different Sources and Health Effects of Different PM Diameters (Continued) World Health Organization (WHO) particles often originate from airborne guidelines most commonly refer to annual soil, dust, or sea salt, whereas PM2.5 and 24-hour mean concentrations of typically results from anthropogenic these pollutants. For PM2.5, it stipulates a sources such as emissions from combustion threshold of 5 micrograms per cubic meters vehicles, industrial processes, or cooking of air (µg/m3) and 15 µg/m3, respectively, stoves. Thus, human activity influences whereas PM10 concentrations should not PM2.5 concentrations more than PM10. exceed 15 µg/m3 and 45 µg/m3, respectively Furthermore, because of their size, PM2.5 (WHO 2021).a particles stay in the air longer than the The differences in size also mean that coarser PM10 particles. the sources are usually different. PM10 a. Following updated evidence on the harmful effects of AAP, especially PM, the WHO in September 2021 issued revised guidelines regarding the maximum concentrations of both PM2.5 and PM10—the first revision since 2005 (WHO 2021). The previous guidelines for maximum exposure to annual mean and 24-hour mean concentrations of PM2.5 had been 10 μg/m 3 and 25 μg/m3, respectively, whereas for PM10, they had been 20 μg/m 3 and 50 μg/m3, respectively. See also “Ambient (Outdoor) Air Pollution,” an online WHO fact sheet (updated September 22, 2021): https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/ambient-(outdoor)-air-quality-and-health. Risk Exposure in the Middle East and North Africa In the Middle East and North Africa, AAP in 2019 constituted the fourth most significant risk factor for premature mortality. According to 2020 data and research from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington,4 the region’s risk for premature mortality stemming from AAP5 is surpassed only by metabolic risk—a broad category including risks from high cholesterol or kidney dysfunc- tions, among others; dietary risks; and health risks stemming from tobacco consumption in 2019 (figure 3.5). Notably, these three factors are within individuals’ control, whereas air pollution is a risk that requires collective action such as, for example, government regulations and safeguards.6 Risk exposure to AAP has been increasing in the region, while risk exposure to other factors has been decreasing. Globally, AAP was among the group of factors whose risk exposure increased the most in the past decade (2010–19). The risk exposure to AAP has grown mainly for dis- advantaged, lower-income groups (GBD 2020). The risk exposures from AAP and a high body mass index (which often affect health outcomes in similar ways) have both been increasing in recent decades (figure 3.6). On the other hand, great strides have been made to reduce several other risks to which the average Middle East and North Africa resident is exposed: household air pollution; unsafe water sanitation and handwash- ing services; and (to a lesser degree) smoking. 68 Blue Skies, Blue Seas FIGURE 3.5 Share of Total Mortality Risk from Most Prevalent Causes in the Middle East and North Africa, 2019 Metabolic risks Dietary risks Tobacco Ambient air pollution Low physical activity Child and maternal malnutrition Unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing 0 10 20 30 40 50 Share of all-cause mortality risk in 2019 (%) Source: Data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) tool of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) Global Health Data Exchange (http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool). Note: Error bars indicate the confidence intervals. FIGURE 3.6 Trends in Risk Exposure, by Cause, in the Middle East and North Africa, 1990–2019 50 40 30 20 10 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Ambient air pollution High body mass index Household air pollution Smoking Unsafe WASH Source: Data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) tool of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) Global Health Data Exchange (http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool). Note: The summary exposure value (SEV) measures a population’s exposure to a risk factor that considers the extent of exposure by risk level and the severity of that risk’s contribution to disease burden. SEV takes the value of zero when no excess risk exists and the value one when the population is at the highest level of risk. The IHME reports SEV on a scale of 0–100 percent to emphasize that it is a risk-weighted prevalence (“Terms Defined,” IHME website: http://www.healthdata.org/terms-defined/). Unsafe WASH = unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. Summary exposure value (1–100) Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 69 The Burden of Disease: Mortality and Morbidity Effects of AAP AAP can induce a range of diseases and disorders that may eventually lead to death (WHO 2019). In the Middle East and North Africa, the major cause of premature deaths associated with polluted air are ischemic heart diseases, followed by strokes and diabetes (figure 3.7).7 Other AAP-related diseases that significantly contribute to deaths in the region are lower respi- ratory infections, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and different types of cancer. Furthermore, polluted air significantly contributes to the deaths of newborns and their mothers in the Middle East and North Africa. Exposure to excessively polluted air has been linked to higher mortality rates in many Middle East and North Africa economies, including Egypt, Kuwait, Lebanon, and the United Arab Emirates (see, for example, Al-Hemoud et al. 2018; Amini et al. 2019). Death rates attributable to AAP are high throughout the region, but there are variations (figure 3.8). Egypt leads this trend, with more than 150 per 100,000 people estimated to prematurely die from AAP-induced causes in 2019. Following are two GCC countries, Oman and Qatar (slightly more than 125 such deaths per 100,000 inhabitants), closely trailed by Iraq (122 deaths per 100,000). The lowest death rates—still troublingly FIGURE 3.7 AAP-Induced Causes of Death in the Middle East and North Africa, 2019 2.4% 3.5% 5.2% Ischemic heart disease 5.5% Stroke Diabetes mellitus 5.8% 55.4% Lower respiratory infections Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer 22.2% Maternal and neonatal disorders Source: Data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) tool of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) Global Health Data Exchange (http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool). Note: AAP = ambient air pollution. 70 Blue Skies, Blue Seas FIGURE 3.8 Death Rates Attributable to AAP in the Middle East and North Africa, by Economy, 2019 200 150 100 50 0 ria n ti . . q n it n a a oe rai p p tou Re Re Ira da wa no iby al cc ma n tar s . g b ia lic siab i te az a p l ah jib b ic Jo r u ba L M ro a o O Q Ar a pu un ir a d G n, Re A B D ra m KA Le M di Re T Em n e pt , , Is la u b b a a a a m y n S Ar Ar an k Ye Eg ra n d I t Ba e s Sy ri it Un W e Source: Data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) tool of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) Global Health Data E xchange (http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool). Note: Age-standardization accounts for demographic (age structure) differences between populations to make disease-related data compara- ble across those populations. Error bars indicate confidence intervals. AAP = ambient air pollution. high—are recorded in Jordan and Tunisia.8 In addition—and in contrast to the other economies—Djibouti and the Republic of Yemen exhibit high death rates attributable to household air pollution (not shown). The estimated numbers of deaths directly related to AAP are sub- stantial. Estimates by the IHME link more than 270,000 deaths in the Middle East and North Africa in 2019 to this type of risk. Air pollution also leads to increased hospitalizations in the region. In Egypt, increases of PM10 at concentrations of 10 ug/m 3 were associated with increased hospitalization rates of 1–2 percent for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and bronchitis (Heger, Zens, and Meisner 2019). Similarly, in the Islamic Republic of Iran, days with higher air pollu- tion were also associated with more hospitalizations in Tehran (Khalilzadeh et al. 2009), and days with high PM2.5 concentrations led to increased admissions to hospital emergency departments (Heger and Sarraf 2018). More specifically, air pollution is considered a major environmental risk factor associated with a range of diseases including asthma, lung can- cer, and ventricular hypertrophy, among others (Ghorani-Azam, Riahi- Zanjani, and Balali-Mood 2016). Air pollution is also associated with Deaths per 100,000 population, age-standardized Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 71 acute strokes, and long-term increases in PM2.5 concentrations are related to ischemic strokes in the Islamic Republic of Iran (Alimohammadi et al. 2016). Similar to the higher risk of morbidity for infants, elevated air pollution led to increased hospitalizations of children due to respiratory diseases in Isfahan, Islamic Republic of Iran (Mansourian et al. 2010). Subregional Comparisons Subregional comparisons show that the Mashreq economies are the worst affected, with around 188,000 fatalities due to excessively polluted air in 2019. Estimations by the IHME suggest that, in Egypt alone, more than 90,000 such deaths in 2019 were related to AAP—almost 250 per day (figure 3.9). Maghreb countries are also affected severely, with around FIGURE 3.9 Total AAP-Related Deaths in the Middle East and North Africa, by Subregion and Economy, 2019 Mashreq Maghreb GCC Egypt, Arab Rep. Iran, Islamic Rep. Morocco Iraq Algeria Saudi Arabia Yemen, Rep. Syrian Arab Republic Tunisia Libya Lebanon United Arab Emirates Jordan West Bank and Gaza Oman Kuwait Bahrain Qatar Djibouti Malta 0 50 100 150 200 Estimated number of deaths (thousands) Source: Data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) tool of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) Global Health Data Exchange (http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool). Note: The subregions (three top bars) are as follows: The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) includes Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The Maghreb subregion includes Algeria, Libya, Malta, Morocco, and Tunisia. The Mashreq subregion includes Djibouti, the Arab Republic of Egypt, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, the Syrian Arab Republic, West Bank and Gaza, and the Republic of Yemen. AAP = ambient air pollution. 72 Blue Skies, Blue Seas 60,000 AAP-related deaths in 2019, Morocco accounting for almost half of them. And among the GCC countries, an estimated 25,000 persons died prematurely in 2019 because of excessive PM concentrations, most of them in Saudi Arabia. Morbidity due to AAP has been rising throughout the Middle East and North Africa. When looking at years lived with disability (YLDs) as a measure of morbidity over time by subregion, figure 3.10 shows a continuous upward trend in morbidity in all subregions. Consistent with the fact that increases in GHG emissions and air pollution were highest in GCC countries, morbidity has been rising in this subregion the fastest, while in the Maghreb and the Mashreq, morbidity was similarly trending upward. Comparisons by Age Group Air pollution especially harms the old and the young (including infants). A comparison of deaths by age group in each economy (figure 3.11) shows that older cohorts are affected most severely, largely because of exposure over a longer period. However, a large number of deaths occur in new- borns and children under the age of five, especially in countries like Algeria, Egypt, Iraq, and the Republic of Yemen. FIGURE 3.10 Trends in Morbidity Due to AAP in the Middle East and North Africa, by Subregion, 1990–2019 400 300 200 100 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 GCC Maghreb Mashreq Source: Data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) tool of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) Global Health Data Exchange (http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool). Note: The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) includes Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The Maghreb subregion includes Algeria, Libya, Malta, Morocco, and Tunisia. The Mashreq subregion includes Djibouti, the Arab Republic of Egypt, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, the Syrian Arab Republic, West Bank and Gaza, and the Republic of Yemen. AAP =  ambient air pollution; YLDs = years lived with disability. YLDs per 100,000 people Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 73 FIGURE 3.11 AAP-Related Deaths in the Middle East and North Africa, by Economy and Age Group, 2019 50 40 30 20 10 0 ria ain ut i . . t ep ep raq an ai on y a lta ob cc a n tar bia bli c sia tes za p . Alg e r o I d n a a i a a e ah jibB D rab R c R wi rJo Ku ba L i M o m a nor O Q Ar pu u ir T d G n, R m Le M di Re Em, A sla u a n e t I a ab ab k em gy p n, Sa n A r d A r an Y E Ir ia te st B r i e Sy Un W Age group (years) <5 5–14 15–49 50–69 70+ Source: Data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) tool of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) Global Health Data E xchange (http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool). Note: AAP = ambient air pollution Children are more susceptible than adults to air pollution because they inhale more air per pound of body weight and have narrower air- ways than adults. Children’s lungs are still developing, and children are also active outdoors; consequently, they have higher exposure to AAP. They also often breathe through their mouths, especially when exercis- ing, which exposes the more-sensitive areas of their lungs. Children’s exposure to air pollutants (including PM, SO2, NO2, nitrogen oxide [NOX], and CO) has been consistently linked to a higher incidence of various respiratory diseases, such as childhood asthma, and related symptoms such as wheezing (Gasana et al. 2012). Hence, living or attending schools near pollution sources such as industrial sites or roads with high traffic density potentially entails substantial health risks for children. In addition, stunting and wasting in children is significantly linked to high-AAP events in the Middle East and North Africa. Children of moth- ers who were exposed to more days of particularly high AAP during their pregnancies are more likely to have worse health outcomes when growing Estimated number of deaths (thousands) 74 Blue Skies, Blue Seas up (Heft-Neal et al., forthcoming). In particular, the probability of chil- dren under the age of five being stunted (having a low height for a certain age) or wasted (having low weight for a certain height) has been inves- tigated in Egypt, Jordan, and Morocco. The main results indicate that there are indeed negative effects of exposure to elevated AAP concentra- tions during pregnancy on subsequent children’s health outcomes. Every day that a pregnant women is exposed to a particularly highly polluted day increases the risk of her child being stunted or wasted by 0.89 percent and 0.61 percent, respectively (Heft-Neal et al., forthcoming), as shown in figure 3.12.9 Similarly, AAP increases the risk of pregnancy loss, with maternal exposure to elevated PM2.5 levels accounting for 7.1 percent of the total annual pregnancy loss in South Asia (Xue et al. 2021). As for risk exposure across age groups, the elderly and young children are especially susceptible to air pollution and vulnerable to various dis- eases resulting from exposure to it (Pope and Dockery 2006). Exposure to high PM levels, besides increasing mortality, has been found to FIGURE 3.12 Estimated Effect of Increased AAP Exposure during Pregnancy on Probability of Stunting or Wasting of Children Born 2002–14, Selected Middle East and North Africa Countries 2.5 2.0 Stunted 1.5 Wasted 1.0 0.5 0 Source: Adapted from Heft-Neal et al., forthcoming. Note: Data were gathered from the Arab Republic of Egypt, Jordan, and Morocco. Dots denote the estimated average effect of each day of exposure to thermal inversions during pregnancy on the proba- bility of born children (under 5 years of age) being stunted (having a low height for a certain age) or wasted (having low weight for a certain height). Lines denote the 95 percent confidence interval surrounding these point estimates. Thermal inversions are natural phenomena in which atmospheric temperature deviates from the norm (that is, air temperature normally decreases with altitude). During inversion periods, the atmospheric temperature profile is inverted, meaning that air becomes warmer at higher altitudes. Inversion distorts the dispersion of air pollutants, trapping them close to the ground and hence temporarily increasing pollution concentrations. AAP = ambient air pollution. Percentage increase of probability per day of exposure to thermal inversion Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 75 increase substantially the number of hospitalizations (as a measure of morbidity). AAP is a major source of many potentially fatal diseases (as shown in figure 3.7) and increases the frequency of hospital stays or days staying home from work. Common pollutants such as CO, NO2, and PM have been found to increase hospital admissions for cardiovascular and all cardiac diseases, cardiac failure, ischemic heart disease, and myocar- dial infarction.10 Short-term exposure to higher PM2.5 levels in particular increases the risk of hospital admissions for cardiovascular and respira- tory diseases (Dominici et al. 2006). Global Comparisons The Middle East and North Africa has the world’s highest rates of mor- bidity and mortality due to AAP. Measured in terms of disability days in a lifetime (figure 3.13, panel a), it surpasses even South Asia, which has the highest PM2.5 concentration (as shown earlier in figure 3.1). Similarly, the Middle East and North Africa emerges as the region with the highest AAP-related mortality rates worldwide, trailed closely by South Asia ( figure 3.13, panel b). FIGURE 3.13 Global Morbidity and Mortality Rates Related to Air Pollution, by Region, 2019 a. Average lifetime disability daysa b. Death rates 80 100 60 75 40 50 20 25 0 0 cif ic sia an a A e c fri eri ca sia a c a nA ric if i i c As ea ric a ca f f ri As ia ric a a al bb A h A Pa al bb A e h A f nd P nt r ari rth A m t ou ran d t r ri C h t h Am ut n e o S a a C e N rt ha a a n Ce n Ca or h e N rt S o ara i As nd t h d No h n -S a si A nd h d o a st e a nd t a ub st e a nd t an N S t ub - Ea op a a s S a a s S ur ric p e E a E ro icau r e E a E me l E e l A Mi dd Am id d tin tin M La La Source: Data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) tool of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) Global Health Data Exchange (http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool). Note: “North America” includes Canada and the United States. a. The data are calculated from information on years lived with disability (YLD)—years lived with any short-term or long-term health loss— taking into account the different life expectancies at birth in different regions. Disability days within a lifetime Deaths per 100,000 people 76 Blue Skies, Blue Seas That both death rates and YLD—years lived with any short-term or long-term health loss—are higher in the Middle East and North Africa even though South Asia has higher PM2.5 concentrations has much to do with the fact that many air pollution-induced diseases (those shown in figure 3.7) are affected by comorbidities that also raise the risk of suffering from such diseases. For example, the relation between obesity and the effects of air pollution has been heavily studied, and it has been found that AAP may aggravate obesity-induced diseases (see, for example, Sun et al. 2009; Yang et al. 2018). The Middle East and North Africa has much higher obesity rates than South Asia and substantially higher rates of physical inactivity, according to WHO Global Health Observatory data. These differences contribute to the higher AAP-related YLD and death rates in the Middle East and North Africa even though AAP is higher in South Asia.11 Impacts of Air Pollution on COVID-19 Risks Increased AAP has been linked to a significantly higher probability of severe illness or death from COVID-19. Exposure to polluted air has decisive effects on the risk of suffering from a serious course of, or dying from, COVID-19 in the United States (Wu et al. 2020); several Asian cities (Gupta et al. 2020); the Netherlands (Cole, Ozgen, and Strobl 2020); and northern Italian municipalities (Coker et al. 2020). Higher AAP (a one-unit increase in PM2.5 concentrations) is associated with an almost 10 percent increase in deaths from COVID-19 (Coker et al. 2020; Wu et al. 2020). The prevalence of COVID-19 cases is also positively related to AAP, as is the number of hospitalizations (Cole, Ozgen, and Strobl 2020). In a panel of 120 Chinese cities, an increase of 10 µg/m³ in PM2.5 and PM10 was associated with an increase of daily confirmed cases of 2.2 percent and 1.8 percent, respectively (Zhu et al. 2020). Conversely, decreased AAP during lockdowns may have saved lives. Decreased air pollution, mainly because of reduced traffic mobility and hence reduced emissions from the transportation industry, may have had a mortality benefit considering deaths linked to polluted air.12 It is esti- mated that during the lockdown period, almost 300 deaths were avoided because of air pollution reductions in Casablanca and Marrakech, with more than 60 percent of these avoidable deaths being related to cardio- vascular diseases (Khomsi et al. 2020). Competitive Disadvantage: Air Pollution’s Economic Costs The many health impacts of air pollution also have profound implica- tions for the economy throughout the Middle East and North Africa. Among the many adverse impacts on human capital, air pollution has Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 77 been linked to lower cognitive performance. Long-term exposure to air pollution has negative effects on individuals’ performance on verbal and math tests. These effects become more pronounced as people age and are especially prevalent for males and those who are less educated. Considering the impact of decreased cognitive performance on the deci- sion making of elderly people, the brain-aging process induced by air pollution may entail substantial health and economic costs (Zhang, Chen, and Zhang 2018). Labor Supply and Productivity Various channels can drive the response of labor supply to increases in air pollution. As noted earlier, exposure to polluted air is associated with adverse health outcomes that could reduce labor supply when workers are either too sick to work or must take care of sick relatives. Indeed, neigh- borhoods near pollution sources (for example, industrial sites such as refineries) show an increase in labor supply once pollution levels drop, because of a closure of pollutant sources (Hanna and Oliva 2015). For people who are informally employed, these health impacts have severe consequences, because absence from work corresponds to a loss of income. In the Middle East and North Africa (excluding the GCC coun- tries), almost two-thirds of employment is in the informal sector (Gatti et al. 2014), leading to loss of pay for affected people who cannot work, not only for themselves but for the families they support. Beyond the lost workdays due to illness, paralleling air pollution’s effect of decreasing cognitive abilities, it also decreases labor produc- tivity (Graff Zivin and Neidell 2012; He, Liu, and Salvo 2019), which depresses economic output. This finding implies that even people who were not hospitalized or unable to show up for work were not able to unlock their potential in terms of contributing to value-adding activities. Targeted policies to limit or reduce air pollution not only would improve air quality and decrease adverse health effects on the affected population but also could generate considerable environmental and economic side benefits such as increasing labor productivity (OECD 2016). Hence, environmental protection policies to increase air qual- ity can also be viewed as investments in human capital (Graff Zivin and Neidell 2012). GDP Losses Globally, AAP causes staggering welfare losses. Economic losses stem- ming from premature mortality alone (that is, without considering the morbidity impacts) exceeded an estimated US$3.5 trillion in 2013 (World Bank and IHME 2016). In the Middle East and North Africa, AAP incurs large economic costs through both premature mortality and forgone 78 Blue Skies, Blue Seas labor output. Between 1990 and 2013, the region’s annual welfare losses from AAP more than doubled, totaling more than US$141 billion in 2013 (World Bank and IHME 2016). These losses are equivalent to about 2 percent of regional GDP, with forgone labor output adding another 0.1 percent of GDP to these costs. Focusing on the impacts of air pollution from the use of fossil fuels only (that is, excluding waste burning and other sources), PM2.5 pollu- tion was responsible for 1.8 billion days of work absence worldwide and millions of new cases of child asthma and preterm births, causing huge welfare costs on a global scale. The economic costs of these impacts of air pollution from fossil fuels approximated US$2.9 trillion in 2018— around 3.3 percent of global GDP (Myllyvirta 2020). In the Middle East and North Africa, the annual costs related to air pollution are substantial. Estimated welfare losses in 2013 ranged from around 0.4 percent in Qatar to more than 3 percent in Egypt, Lebanon, and the Republic of Yemen (table 3.1). Note that although table 3.1 TABLE 3.1 Estimated Annual Costs of Air Pollution in Middle East and North Africa Economies, 2013 Share of GDP (%) Economy Total welfare loss Total forgone labor output Algeria 1.74 0.07 Bahrain 1.41 0.07 Egypt, Arab Rep. 3.58 0.27 Iran, Islamic Rep. 2.48 0.12 Iraq 2.67 0.22 Jordan 1.34 0.13 Kuwait 1.38 0.06 Lebanon 3.58 0.20 Libya 2.86 0.26 Morocco 1.55 0.18 Oman 1.73 0.07 Qatar 0.42 0.02 Saudi Arabia 2.05 0.12 Tunisia 2.83 0.18 United Arab Emirates 0.93 0.09 West Bank and Gaza 1.65 — Yemen, Rep. 3.45 — Source: World Bank and IHME 2016. Note: The percentages include the costs of both ambient and household air pollution. Forgone labor output includes costs from premature deaths and increased morbidity (in the form of sick days). Data for Djibouti and the Syrian Arab Republic are unavailable. — = not available. GDP = gross domestic product. Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 79 includes costs stemming from both ambient and household air pollution, the costs due to household air pollution are negligible in the region except in the Republic of Yemen and potentially in Djibouti (where estimates of such costs are missing but exposure to household air pollution is still an issue). For the region in total, costs due to household air pollution amounted to US$5 billion compared with US$141 billion caused by AAP. In absolute values, Egypt, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and Saudi Arabia bear the region’s highest costs from air pollution, estimated to total more than US$30 billion in each of these countries in 2013. Total forgone labor output has been generally lower but amounted to more than 0.2 percent of GDP in Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon, and Libya. Recent reports on the health and economic costs of PM2.5 pollution related to fossil fuel showed that the costs from premature deaths and increased morbidity (in the form of sick days) and hence forgone labor output are substantial in all Middle East and North Africa economies, ranging from 0.4 percent to 2.8 percent of GDP (Farrow, Miller, and Myllyvirta 2020). In addition, polluted air detracts from cities’ attractiveness to tourists and affects their competitiveness. City tourism is one of the most dynamic forms of tourism and has grown considerably in recent decades globally. The Middle East and North Africa is no exception. Degraded skies can damage tourists’ image of a certain city and hence reduce their willingness to visit it (Łapko et al. 2020). Similarly, when cities grow and generate more output, they often face growth-related challenges such as conges- tion and the proper management of pollution in general and of air pol- lution more significantly. How cities approach these challenges directly influences their ability to grow further and to generate additional jobs and economic output. Hence, proper air pollution management is an impor- tant factor in a city’s competitiveness (Lozano-Gracia and Soppelsa 2019). The Cost-Benefit Equation Inaction has costs—in lives lost, decreased health, and the related eco- nomic losses—that far outweigh the costs of action. The positive net benefits (benefits minus costs) of tackling polluted air have consistently been shown in a host of scientific studies around the world and for many different interventions. For example, instruments like the US Clean Air Act that proposed control requirements on major air pollutants have pro- duced US$4 in benefits for every US$1 of cost (EPA 2001). The intro- duction of Canada-wide standards for PM10, PM2.5, and ozone resulted in net benefits of US$3.6 billion per year (Pandey and Nathwani 2003). Myriad studies also quantify the net benefit of more-specific meas- ures such as the introduction of tighter emission and fuel standards,13 place-based restrictions on vehicles like low emission zones (LEZs) or congestion charges,14 or the removal of fossil fuel subsidies,15 among 80 Blue Skies, Blue Seas many others. Of course, the cost-effectiveness of individual measures is case- dependent and can vary, but not tackling the issues presented by air pollution usually costs more. Recent studies compared the costs of air pollution abatement policies with the resulting health benefits from cleaner air, revealing the cost-effectiveness of different measures for more than 60 countries (Wagner et al. 2020). Such exercises can be use- ful guides to select the most cost-effective policies and to help inform policy makers’ decisions. Inclusion of the health benefits of reduced air pollution in cost-benefit analyses of climate change policies flips the trade-off between climate damages and the costs of their mitigation. GHGs such as CO2 and air pollutants often share the same sources. Considering the health ben- efits of air quality improvement measures in the assessment of carbon- emission strategies often reveals larger benefits of action relative to the costs of inaction (Scovronick et al. 2019). Air pollution policies can also contribute to meeting the Paris Agreement climate targets (Markandya et al. 2018). Factoring climate benefits into cost-benefit analyses of the air pollution abatement options would further increase their already pronounced benefits. Given the toll of air pollution every year, action to tackle it is imperative. AAP causes so much human suffering every year and car- ries such severe adverse economic effects—amounting to a substantial portion of annual GDP—that these human and economic costs are undermining the livability of countries and cities while also reducing their economic efficiency. These impacts will only be exacerbated by the looming threat of climate change, to which many sources of air pollutants contribute in the form of climate pollution. Hence, a swift reaction by policy makers is needed to avoid these recurring costs of polluted air. The next section shows that policy makers in the Middle East and North Africa can pursue many options to address AAP. However, the current paucity of information on the sources of air pollution hampers the identification of the most cost-effective options. Hence, one of the most important ways forward is to increase efforts to identify these sources. Despite this lack of knowledge, the section presents some prior- ity recommendations that policy makers can pursue even without exact source information. POLICY REVIEW: HOW TO GET CLEAR BLUE SKIES? This section discusses the steps toward “blueing” the region’s skies, focusing on source identification and policy design. Although evidence Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 81 of exceedingly high air pollution is available, information about the sources of this pollution is sparse in the Middle East and North Africa. Consequently, it is imperative to increase efforts to obtain source infor- mation to effectively design pollution-abatement measures, following the credo “you can only manage what you can measure.” However, the region’s policy makers can pursue certain measures in the meantime, given that some pollution sources are at work in every city and town. Hence, such measures can be considered priority recommendations to curb air pollution that governments can act on right away. The next subsection concisely describes these priority measures and some of the most important ramifications for policy makers to con- sider. After that, a subsection on the sources of air pollution presents the very limited available evidence on sources in specific countries and cities, which highlights the need for more studies to identify air pollu- tion sources. Finally, the “Detailed Sectoral Measures for Reducing Air Pollution” subsection presents a full range of options for decreasing AAP that are deemed most suitable in the Middle East and North Africa context. It also presents more detailed information and context about the policy options discussed in the earlier “Priority Recommendations” subsection, including regional and international examples. Priority Recommendations: Which Actions Can Tackle Air Pollution without Knowing More about the Sources? Given air pollution’s massive toll every year in lost lives and reduced qual- ity of life and productivity, it is imperative that governments in the Middle East and North Africa respond to this crisis swiftly. Although a broad range of policy measures can be taken (as further detailed in the “Sectoral Measures” subsection below), they are best taken once more specific knowledge is available about the sources of air pollution—information that most of the region’s economies and cities currently lack. However, (local) governments can pursue some pathways in the absence of such detailed information, making those pathways priority recommendations for addressing air pollution. The following priority measures are pertinent to the entire region: • Providing regular ground monitoring data on air pollution (and cli- mate pollution) to raise awareness about the health consequences, accompanied by guidance for effective changes in individual behavior • Removing distortive emissions subsidies and increasing the use of an environmental fiscal policy (while unburdening other factors, such as labor incomes, and providing compensation, especially to low-income households) 82 Blue Skies, Blue Seas • Bringing about a modal shift from personal motorized transportation to personal nonmotorized transportation while also improving the quality of public transit • Controlling emissions from industries • Enhancing the treatment of solid waste, both agricultural and municipal. This section identifies some of the most promising approaches, which later sections will discuss in more detail within a broader presentation of possible measures to fight air pollution. No. 1: Close the Knowledge and Information Gaps It is critical to frequently acquire and disseminate broad knowledge about the levels of air pollution in the region’s cities. This requires the installa- tion of ground monitoring stations across cities to continuously measure concentrations of criteria air pollutants.16 The lack of appropriate equip- ment, especially for PM2.5 monitoring stations (shown in map 3.1), impedes effective dissemination of air quality information to the public. Furthermore, gaps in the knowledge about air pollution levels obstruct the detailed investigation of air pollution’s effects on morbidity and mortality. City-level assessments of the human and economic costs of elevated pollution in the Middle East and North Africa remain sparse, and regional assessments such as those presented in the previous two sec- tions often rely on estimates of PM concentrations derived from satellite images and advanced machine learning techniques. Although these meth- ods have proven reliable, their accuracy can be strongly increased by in situ verification of concentration levels. Information on the local impacts of air pollution can be disseminated accurately, frequently, and in an eas- ily accessible way. Local information facilitates the formulation of the most appropriate policy responses for the specific local pollution profile. Public information plays a key role in building consensus for policy change and in mitigating pollution’s impacts when air quality reaches critical levels. Information must be provided in an efficient, timely, and easily accessible manner—that is, the residents should view it as a ser- vice provided as part of the social contract between them and the (local) government. Regional examples are Abu Dhabi’s traffic light system or Tehran’s use of billboards and newspapers to keep residents informed. Letting people know that air pollution in their cities regularly reaches critical limits, affecting them and their loved ones, will nurture demand for change and build support for people to adapt their behavior to contribute to bluer skies. Campaigns should include information about Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 83 specific actions individuals can take to lower air pollution, such as chang- ing their mode of transportation, conserving energy where possible, or treating their waste appropriately (that is, not burning it). Clear com- munications about the dangers of air pollution and ways to change it can help generate broad political and public support and prevent misinfor- mation about new price increases or regulations (for example, reduced fuel subsidies, tighter vehicle emission standards, or traffic controls). No. 2: Address Fossil Fuel Pricing Fossil fuels must be priced at a level that provides incentives to reduce consumption and emissions from the transportation, energy, and indus- try sectors while concurrently contributing revenue to public budgets. Many Middle East and North Africa economies continue to be among the world’s heaviest subsidizers of all sorts of fossil fuel products (Coady et al. 2019; IMF 2017)—whether those products are gasoline or diesel at the pump station (Ross, Hazlett, and Mahdavi 2017), input factors for energy production (Poudineh, Sen, and Fattouh 2018), or cheap feed- stock for petrochemical and plastic producers. This provision of fossil fuel products at artificially low prices is a disincentive for consumers and reliant industries to increase their conservation efforts or to switch to more sustainable alternatives such as noncombustion transportation or renewable energies. Apart from reductions in air pollution, efficiently pricing fossil fuels has clear benefits for climate pollution—decreasing carbon as well as other GHG emissions. Efficient pricing also has ramifications for the production and use of plastic products, which have distinct price advan- tages over greener alternatives thanks partly to the heavy subsidization of the petrochemical sector through cheap inputs (that is, fossil fuels). Subsidy reform. Reducing or abolishing fossil fuel subsidies is an important way forward on the path to fight air and climate pollution, with co-benefits for other environmental issues such as marine-plastic pollution. Furthermore, the looming prospects of rising global oil prices from historical lows can substantially drive up the already high public costs of these subsidy programs. Slashing subsidies can provide impor- tant relief for these budgets but could also be accompanied by reductions on the burden for other factors such as income taxes, in the sense of an “eco-social” tax reform. Subsidy reforms are often unpopular, but clear communications can soften the pushback. Governments need to analyze the impact of subsidy reform on households of different income levels. Often, fuel subsidies do not benefit the low-income households for which they are ostensi- bly intended. Subsidies in the Middle East and North Africa have been found to be regressive (Fattouh and El-Katiri 2013), disproportionately 84 Blue Skies, Blue Seas benefiting better-off households. Subsidized fuels are also frequently smuggled outside the country.17 Nonetheless, reforms to fossil fuel subsidies may have side effects on lower-income households that must be anticipated. For example, reduction or removal of fuel subsidies may increase food prices as well. Effective support programs for low-income households may therefore be necessary to soften the blow of subsidy reforms on them. Specific mitiga- tion measures may include the following: • Retaining the savings of removed subsidy programs as an important source of income to implement support programs for low-income households or using savings to reduce the tax burden on labor incomes. • Introducing reforms gradually, with appropriate phase-in periods to help spread out their impacts • Reducing the burdens of phasing out fuel subsidies and depoliticizing them by implementing an automatic pricing formula that links domes- tic fuel prices to global oil prices (Coady, Flamini, and Sears 2015) • Executing an effective communications strategy—as part of a compre- hensive reform plan with clear objectives, timelines, and sequencing measures—to mitigate the immediate impacts of such reforms and foster broad political and public support, with transparency being key (Coady, Flamini, and Sears 2015). Carbon taxation or pricing. Taxing emissions or creating a market for them can also be an important source for government income and has proven effective in reducing emissions’ negative externalities while result- ing in cleaner air. As of 2021, none of the region’s economies has planned or implemented either an emissions trading scheme or a carbon tax (World Bank 2021b), lagging every other region of the world in this respect. Pursuing such programs could contribute to more-balanced public budgets, and such programs are an important impetus for further environmental taxation. Decarbonization of value chains. In addition, with much of the world striving to decarbonize their value chains in the coming decades, overt reliance on fossil fuels could leave the region’s economies with stranded assets in the future. Large sectors of high-income countries are moving, or at least striving toward, decarbonization of not only their production processes but also their value chains. In contrast, 10 out of 20 Middle East and North Africa economies strongly rely on their oil and gas reserves for external trade of fossil fuels directly.18 Some of them (most notably the GCC countries but also Iraq and the Islamic Republic of Iran) are expanding their downstream industries such as petrochemicals. Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 85 Although these sectors are presently contributing heavily to govern- ment revenues, the upcoming momentum toward cleaner supply chains will eventually affect these income sources. This leaves countries at risk to end up with stranded assets in these industries, burdening future development. Some countries, especially in the GCC, have recognized this potential threat to stable income and have intensified their efforts to initiate a shift toward a more pluralistic model of income generation. However, some GCC countries and other Middle East and North Africa economies, such as Algeria and Libya, have been reluctant to initiate fuel subsidy reforms, making their climb to appropriate pricing steeper than for others that have already made some progress in this respect, such as Egypt and the Islamic Republic of Iran. No. 3: Shift Transportation System Priorities Substantial efforts are necessary to induce a modal shift from individual transportation to expanded provision and use of public transportation. Personal motorized transportation and the emissions stemming from it contribute substantially to polluted air in virtually every city in the Middle East and North Africa because of high traffic intensities and often- outdated vehicle fleets (Abbass, Kumar, and El-Gendy 2018). Hence, measures to increase the share of people relying on public or preferably nonmotorized transit options are essential to curb transportation-related emissions. Compounding the negative externalities, in many of the region’s cities, public transportation systems are weak at best, with large shares of the population relying on personal combustion vehicles, leading to traffic congestion (Waked and Afif 2012). Strengthening public transportation systems and incentivizing resi- dents to use them requires large investments in public vehicle fleets and infrastructure. Upgrading the existing public transportation fleet to more efficient and environmentally less harmful options such as electric or hybrid vehicles comes as a natural extension to promoting use of public transportation to lower the impacts on air quality. Furthermore, to induce a modal switch toward nonmotorized options such as bicycles or walking requires safety measures for nonmotorized road users and pedestrians. Making public transportation affordable for low-income households is also one way to soften the blow that might be induced by subsidy reforms. Moreover, providing the poor with a means to commute cheaply increases their prospects to engage in jobs in more-productive sectors that might otherwise be unreachable for them. Efforts to expand the transportation system and make travel affordable require careful planning and substantial investments—further reasons for (local) gov- ernments to initiate these processes in a timely manner. 86 Blue Skies, Blue Seas No. 4: Implement Emissions Standards and Enforce Compliance In the Middle East and North Africa, industrial emissions, including from energy production, are a major source of air pollutants—espe- cially given the generally lax regulations and oversight in the region. Most of the region’s economies lack incentives for clean production (only 4 in 20 have them; see UNEP 2017), and most firms are lagging in obtaining internationally recognized, voluntary environmental standards (except in some GCC countries such as the United Arab Emirates). International emissions standards (such as the mandatory use of fume scrubbers or exhaust filters) must be introduced into legal and regula- tory frameworks, and the capacity of regulatory and inspection agencies must be enhanced to ensure compliance. Similar to reducing emis- sions from industries directly, mandating minimum energy-efficiency standards could curb the overuse of energy-intensive processes. Given that the region’s energy mix is heavily based on fossil fuels, conserving energy in industrial processes is an important step to get clean air in the region. Specifically, governments can start supporting companies in several ways: • Providing support for retrofitting facilities to upgraded standards as well as implementing measures to support the switch to renewable energy sources, which in turn may incentivize transitions to cleaner technologies • Offering subsidies but also special credit lines for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) • Providing technical assistance for companies to transition to less-polluting facilities and to identify the regulations with which they must comply • Providing certifications to complying facilities, which they can also use to signal their willingness to adopt emission-reducing technology upgrades and to present themselves as “clean-producing” companies. Finally, an important step toward clean value chains is the produc- tion and provision of energy derived from renewable energy sources instead of f ossil fuels. To achieve this, it is vital to increase the produc- tion capacity of solar or wind plants as well as to invest in infrastructure for efficient storage and distribution of the produced energy. The ex- tension of alternative energy sources is important to reduce emissions stemming not only from the industrial sector but also from the residen- tial building sector. Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 87 No. 5: Strengthen Solid Waste Management Systems Strengthening the management of municipal and agricultural waste is an urgent need. As the subsection on detailed measures will show, the (illegal) burning of waste substantially contributes to polluted air in the region. SWM is inadequate, especially in the Mashreq and Maghreb s ubregions, and a substantial proportion of waste is either disposed of in uncontrolled dump sites or burned. Regarding agricultural waste, a combination of properly enforced penalties for waste burning in conjunction with incentives for the pro- ductive use of agricultural waste have worked well in some countries of the region, such as Egypt. In a similar vein, the introduction of technolo- gies that turn otherwise discarded agricultural waste into fertilizer is a viable way to help curb air pollution stemming from this sector. Some of these technologies have the important co-benefit of substantially improving agricultural yields of plots where they are applied, which can again act as an incentive for farmers to use such technologies more intensively. Accompanying these efforts, information campaigns about the dangers of burning crop residues, and the benefits of alternatives to it, are important in informing farmers how to make such changes. The poor conditions of SWM in large parts of the Middle East and North Africa are also a major contributor to the continuing flow of plastics into the regions’ seas. Plastic pollution has major implications for the environment and human health—and for the economy. Chapter 4 investigates this issue in more detail. Strengthening the collection and treatment of municipal waste is identified as a priority recommendation to stem the marine-plastic tide. Hence, there are important cross-sector benefits in this area, and chapter 4 presents detailed information about the state of SWM in the region and possible ways forward. One Must Measure What One Would Manage: The Sources of Air Pollution The Middle East and North Africa lags other regions of the world in monitoring air pollutants—especially PM2.5, the most significant pollut- ant for health. Regular monitoring of air quality is crucial for understand- ing the gravity of the issues in different locations and for identifying hot spots. This is especially the case for ground monitors that measure PM2.5, the pollutant that is the most consistent and robust determinant of mor- tality in large range studies of long-term exposure to air pollutants (Cohen et al. 2017). Regular monitoring enables understanding of pollution trends over time, which is crucial for evaluating the effectiveness of interventions. Regular, day-by-day monitoring of pollution levels also provides the 88 Blue Skies, Blue Seas information that empowers individuals to adopt behaviors that avert problems (such as avoiding exposure on particularly bad days, using air purifiers, wearing masks, and so forth). Exposure avoidance is particu- larly important for sensitive groups (such as asthmatics or people with other respiratory diseases such as COPD)—who, by reducing their expo- sure, can also reduce the negative health effects significantly. Despite the importance of monitoring, many Middle East and North Africa economies lag other regions of the world in this regard because the region has a low number of ground monitors to measure PM com- pared with the monitors in East Asia, Europe, Latin America, North America, and South Asia (Shaddick et al. 2018), as shown in map 3.1. Know the Sources To prepare effective pollution abatement programs, the first and fore- most question is, “What are the sources?” Especially in this section about policy measures for “blueing” the Middle East and North Africa’s skies, the importance of knowing the sources of air pollution in a given country, city, or other area becomes apparent. Without such knowledge, a worst- case situation arises in which expensive pollution abatement measures are MAP 3.1 Global Distribution of Ground Monitors for Measuring PM10 and PM2.5 Source: Shaddick et al. 2018. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY-NC 4.0. Note: Circles denote ground monitors for PM2.5, crosses for PM10. Colors denote the annual average PM2.5 concentrations in μg/m 3 (micrograms per cubic meter of air), converted from PM10 where PM2.5 data were not available. Data are from 2014 (46 percent); 2013 (36 percent); 2012 (9 percent); and 2006–11 and 2015 (9 percent total for these last two time periods). PM2.5 is particulate matter (PM) of 2.5 microns or less in diameter, whereas PM10 is 10 microns or less in diameter. Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 89 taken in areas that do not contribute much to the overall problem. More often than not, the findings from source apportionment analysis, emis- sions inventory, and dispersion modeling challenge the experts’ prior assumptions about the relative contributions of various sources.19 The uncertainty surrounding the sources makes it so important to carry out source analyses before embarking on costly pollution abatement pathways. Evidence from global modeling of the Middle East and North Africa indicates that road vehicles, waste burning, and industries are the three most important sources of PM2.5 in the region (figure 3.14). In North Africa, the fourth most important source is agriculture, particularly agri- cultural waste burning. In the Middle East, it is power plants. However, the anthropogenic sources of AAP vary widely from country to country and from city to city and also temporally. The proportions shown in figure 3.14 are based on a global and regional modeling effort, and they by no means replace detailed source apportionment campaigns based on collect- ing ground-monitored data in the main cities of the region’s economies. Knowing the local sources of air pollution is necessary to formulate effective policy responses. These sources vary both geographically and temporally. For example, the sources of PM2.5 in the Greater Cairo area FIGURE 3.14 Decomposition of National Sources of PM2.5 Concentrations in the Middle East and North Africa, by Subregion, 2018 North Africa Middle East 0 20 40 60 80 100 Share of contribution to PM2.5 concentrations (%) Road vehicles Waste burning Industrial process Agriculture Small combustion Power plants Other Industrial combustion O-road Source: Adapted from Wagner et al. 2020, using the GAINS model of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) for assessing emission reduction strategies. Note: The bars show percentages, by national source, of population-weighted exposure to concentrations of PM2.5, which is particulate matter (PM) 2.5 microns or less in diameter. Transboundary sources are not considered. North Africa includes four Maghreb countries: Algeria, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. Middle East includes the Mashreq and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies. The Mashreq subregion includes Djibouti, the Arab Republic of Egypt, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, the Syrian Arab Republic, West Bank and Gaza, and the Republic of Yemen. The GCC includes Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. 90 Blue Skies, Blue Seas vary depending on the time of year (figure 3.15). Open burning, mostly from crop residues from the rice harvest, is much more prevalent in the fall after the harvest season. Thus, the share of PM2.5 concentration in fall 2010 was much higher than in summer 2010. Knowing the sources has allowed the government to launch a pro- gram to tackle air pollution stemming from agricultural waste burning, which included establishment of a market for crop residues and aware- ness programs about the dangers of burning crop residues and alternative options. For a more detailed description of the “black cloud” phenom- enon and policies to tackle it, see box 3.14. Despite the importance of source identification analyses—such as source apportionment analyses and emissions inventory work—only a few cities in the Middle East and North Africa have performed such studies, and openly available information on the sources of pollutants is sparse for the region’s cities and economies. In a global database containing source apportionment studies (Karagulian et al. 2015), only seven studies for four cities in the Middle East and North Africa were available, some dating back to the early 2000s.20 In the past few years, not many more have been added to that list. By comparison, in the European Union (EU), North America, and some higher-income Asian countries, such source studies are frequently carried out, and time series information is often available. This lack of sampling, testing, and results reporting in the Middle East and North Africa leads to a lack of FIGURE 3.15 Decomposition of PM2.5 Sources in Greater Cairo, Summer and Fall 2010 Fall, 2010 Summer, 2010 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Share of contribution to PM2.5 concentrations (%) Geological material Motor vehicles Open burning Ammonium Other Source: Heger et al. 2019, based on World Bank 2013. Note: Geological material includes sand and soil dust either occurring naturally (for example, sand from the desert) or stemming from human activity (for example, road dust, sand from construction activity). Particulate matter (PM) pollution from ammonium can occur through industrial but also agricultural activities (for example, fertilizer). PM2.5 is PM that measures 2.5 microns or less in diameter. Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 91 understanding of the source profile of PM air pollution for most of the region’s economies and cities. The source information is likely the single most significant piece of missing evidence needed for policy making on air pollution manage- ment in the Middle East and North Africa. To help policy makers obtain accurate source attribution, further studies and more detailed data are required (Karagulian et al. 2015). To effectively and efficiently tackle the air pollution challenges that so many of the region’s cities face, knowledge about where pollution comes from is of paramount importance and cannot be based on globally modeled information. It is strongly recommended that the region’s economies and cities invest in carrying out source identification studies to understand their indi- vidual source profiles. Models for Emulation Regular measurement and reporting of air pollution sources has been adopted in the United States and Western Europe to support policy m akers in their decision-making processes. Such measurement and reporting are highly encouraged for Middle East and North Africa e conomies. Source apportionment can be accomplished through three main approaches: emissions inventories, source-oriented models, and receptor-oriented models. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) provides a com- prehensive, detailed estimate of air pollutant emissions—the National Emissions Inventory (NEI)—every three years. It collects data from state, local, and tribal air agencies and blends that information with data from other sources. The European Environment Agency (EEA) disseminates annual emissions inventories with air emissions accounts provided by each member state. This agency reports the amount of air pollutant and GHGs emissions broken down by 64 industries plus households. It also releases data on intensity ratios—emissions per unit of value added or production output. For the EU and associated states, more detailed analyses of p ollution sources are easily accessible and updated annually. For example, figure 3.16 shows sector-contribution shares of anthropogenic activi- ties for various air pollutant emissions in the European Economic Area. For PM2.5 emissions (sixth bar), the largest sector contribution came from the “commercial, institutional, and households” sector, mainly consisting of household emissions (95 percent) from sources such as wood combustion for heating. Industrial processes, when includ- ing energy production and its use in industries, contributed around 25 percent of the PM2.5 pollution. Close behind as a source of PM2.5 air pollution is the road transportation sector. In the Middle East and 92 Blue Skies, Blue Seas FIGURE 3.16 Decomposition of Air Pollutant Sources, by Sector, in the EEA-33 Countries, 2017 100 75 50 25 0 CO NH3 NMVOC NO PM10 PMX 2.5 SOX Air pollutant Agriculture Commercial, institutional, and households Energy production and distribution Energy use in industry Industrial processes and product use Non-road transport Other Road transport Waste Source: “Emissions of the main air pollutants by sector group in the EEA-33,” European Environment Agency (EEA) (last modified September 4, 2019): https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/daviz/share-of-eea-33-emissions-5. Note: The EEA-33 country group comprises the 27 EU member states and 6 other countries within the European Economic Area: Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Switzerland, Turkey, and the United Kingdom. CO = carbon monoxide; NH3 = ammonia; NMVOC = non-methane volatile organic compounds (such as benzene, ethanol, and so on); NOX = nitrogen oxides; PM10 = particulate matter of 10 microns or less in diameter; PM2.5 = particulate matter of 2.5 microns or less in diameter; SOX = sulfur oxides. North Africa, road transportation generally plays a bigger role than in the EU, given the age of much of the region’s vehicle fleet and low use of public transportation in the region (Waked and Afif 2012). Progress within the Region There has been some movement in the right direction with initiatives for detailed emissions inventories. Some Middle East and North Africa countries are implementing national emissions inventory projects to improve knowledge about air pollution sources. For example, the United Arab Emirates recently released its first-ever emissions inventory, and Abu Dhabi has implemented an air quality index to communicate air pol- lution levels easily and in a timely manner to its inhabitants (box 3.2). Egypt is developing an air emissions inventory, has completed a Sector share of pollutant emissions (%) Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 93 point-source and area module, and is currently developing mobile-source and biogenic and geogenic modules.21 It is highly recommended that other economies in the region follow suit and adopt a similar framework for emission reporting to tackle the issue of air pollution efficiently on a national scale. BOX 3.2 Air Quality Monitoring in Abu Dhabi and the United Arab Emirates Good air quality is recognized as essential road transportation (38 percent) as well as for the health and well-being of the popu- from power generation and desalination lation in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi and as processes and oil and gas operations (both an intrinsic part of what makes it an attrac- 15 percent). tive place to live and work. The emirate The detailed analysis carried by the has established 20 stationary and 2 mobile Environment Agency – Abu Dhabi stations for monitoring air quality. These (EAD) in the course of its Air Emissions stations monitor 17 pollutants and selected Inventory for 2018 enables an assessment meteorological indicators on an hourly basis. of the varying nature of dominant air There are 41 stations within the United Arab pollution sources within a city. Depending Emirates as a whole. Air quality standards on the location of industries, energy are based on US Environmental Protection production sites, or major transportation Agency (US EPA) guidelines, including par- hubs such as ports, the dominant sources ticulate matter (PM), with hourly, daily, and in certain localities of Abu Dhabi differ. annual standards. For example, the Musafah district is In February 2020, the United Arab primarily affected by industrial sources, Emirates disseminated its first-ever while in Shahama on the outskirts of National Air Emissions Inventory Report, Abu Dhabi, agricultural sources of air which provides comprehensive data on pollution dominate. Vehicular emissions sources of air pollutants such as SO2, occur wherever there is traffic (that is, NOX, CO, and PM (MOCCAE 2019). near roads). However, cities (or some This report revealed that, among the parts of them) are more affected by both anthropogenic sources of air pollution higher traffic and impaired air exchange in the United Arab Emirates, industry in street canyons—that is, narrow roads is the major contributor to PM10 (76 with high surrounding buildings, making percent) and PM2.5 (68 percent), followed populations living there more exposed by road transportation (13 percent and 19 to these sources. The results in the EAD percent, respectively). CO stems mostly report showcase the high spatial variation from road transportation (78 percent) of air pollution sources within a city and and industry (17 percent). SO2 is emitted highlight the need for detailed studies mainly from operations in the oil and to better understand these variations gas sector (79 percent) and NOX from (Sanderson 2018). 94 Blue Skies, Blue Seas Ways Forward Enhancing the monitoring, reporting, and public dissemination of infor- mation about air pollution sources should be a key priority for Middle East and North Africa economies. A first step toward combating air pollution in an evidence-based manner is to install more air pollution tracking systems, together with supporting the responsible agencies (the respective environmental protection agencies). Furthermore, easier access and heightened public dissemination of such analyses will be important to raise awareness and spread knowledge about air pollution and its sources. This allows for more effective investigations by both academics and policy makers while also integrating the broader popula- tion into the discussion about air pollution and suitable counteractive measures as well as evaluation of their effectiveness. Importantly, this evidence base empowers the making of effective pollution abatement policy on a local scale while also increasing the acceptance of these policies. Regular source identification and apportionment are key to tack- ling air pollution and to judging the effectiveness of any mitigation measures. Identifying the sources of air pollution is a precursor to formulating suitable, targeted measures. However, it does not stop there. If the goal is to evaluate measures taken in the past, deter- mine their effectiveness, and revise them if necessary, then regular measurements of air pollutants and identification of their sources are required. This involves sophisticated analyses carried out as fre- quently as possible and accounting for seasonal variations. Regular apportionment analyses as well as emissions inventories would allow for timely, effective identification of policies that tackle AAP most efficiently and would allow for flexible reformulations of policy strat- egies over time if necessary. Picking the most economical solutions across sectors requires source information but also detailed modeling exercises. Aside from knowing the sources, it is important to compare pollution abatement costs across the sectors and within sectors. Given limited fiscal space, it is also impor- tant to invest in the most cost-effective options. Marginal abatement cost curves—displaying the relative costs of particular interventions together with the benefits they bring—can be a useful tool for prioritizing solu- tions across a suite of options (much like the ones presented in the next chapter). Earlier, the chapter presented policies that can be implemented even without a clear picture regarding the exact sources of air pollu- tion. The next section presents the full range of promising policies most suitable for the Middle East and North Africa that could target Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 95 different sources of air pollution. Which policies to pick depends crucially on information about the relative importance of the sources along with national and regional factors such as institutional and political economy considerations. Detailed Sectoral Measures for Reducing Air Pollution Because most of the region’s economies and cities lack the source infor- mation described above, this section’s objective is to describe (rather than prescribe) the “universe” of policies that countries and cities may take, depending on what the source information reveals. The reviewed policies include market-based incentives, regulations, technologies, and engi- neering solutions. This section also provides examples of effective inter- ventions in the Middle East and North Africa and reviews international best practices. It then provides a descriptive review of a broad range of measures for reducing air pollution that the region’s cities and economies may want to ponder. Which combination of measures is optimal for which economy and city is a highly contextual question (depending, among other factors, on its institutions and political economy). The policy selection therefore requires in-depth analysis of local conditions and opportunities, as shown by recent detailed, city-level analyses in Egypt and the Islamic Republic of Iran.22 Hence, the need for more detailed source identification studies and their dissemination should be reiterated. This would allow for the employment of specific measures in each location in an evidence-based manner to tackle the main sources of pollution and contribute to effective, efficient air pollution management in the Middle East and North Africa. Before getting into specific options, it should be noted that for air qual- ity management (AQM) to be effective, a governance and institutional framework is important to bring together the various stakeholders affected and establish clear guidelines and rules to follow. The specific options for tackling air pollution described below target the most common sources of air pollution. Some of these options can be differentiated by source and describe measures to (a) reduce vehicle emissions; (b) lower industrial emissions, including those from energy production and use; and (c) miti- gate or eliminate air pollution resulting from uncontrolled burning of agricultural or solid waste. Furthermore, some crucial measures are inde- pendent of the exact source of air p ollution, including (d) raising public awareness about air pollution; (e) increasing energy efficiency in the resi- dential sector; and (f) greening cities and their infrastructure. The policy options presented in the following subsections are an extensive but not exhaustive list deemed to be most appropriate within the Middle East and North Africa context, both to limit further 96 Blue Skies, Blue Seas degradation of the region’s air and to provide authorities with tools that are efficiently enforceable. Several of the subsections—on vehicle emis- sions, industrial emissions, and greening cities—include tables that sum- marize the proposed policy options, describe their expected effectiveness and costs for implementation, and assess the time horizon in which they could be implemented based on regional and international experiences. However, the Middle East and North Africa’s very heterogeneity implies that these aspects may vary across countries, necessitating additional economy-specific assessments. Prerequisites for Implementing Effective Policies Legal and regulatory frameworks. This process entails the enshrine- ment of a series of laws, acts, and regulations within a transparent legal and regulatory framework. This framework would define institutional roles and responsibilities of government officials and agencies for AQM and estab- lish compliance, reporting, and enforcement mechanisms as well as legal instruments that adopt previously agreed-upon national air quality standards. Governmental coordination. Given the various governmental stake- holders involved in an effective AQM framework, horizontal and vertical coordination among them becomes even more important. Establishing functional arrangements to coordinate these stakeholders across sectors (horizontal) and between different levels of government (vertical) with clear descriptions of functions, responsibilities, and management rights is necessary to develop plans to reduce air pollution and effectively execute those plans. Nested planning processes. Air pollution is a transnational issue, with the actions taken by one country possibly affecting—or even likely to affect—others. It is also an intranational issue involv- ing various administrative units within a country. Having modalities and planning procedures in place to allow for nested planning across national and subnational boundaries is crucial to avoid frictions across those boundaries. Ideally, coordination between countries would lead to unified approaches to tackle air pollution, and synergies could arise based on sound evidence developed through consultation with stake- holders, government agencies, and technical experts. Committed executive structures. Many policy options described below involve some sort of regulation, ban, or technology require- ments. To ensure compliance, institutions in charge of implement- ing these AQM policies in the form of committed executive branches must be clearly defined. This process includes the establishment of penalty schemes and prosecution procedures for noncompliant com- panies and residents as well as staff trained to properly administer Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 97 such procedures. It also requires clear structures for financing those activities. Public accountability and transparency. Related to the current lack of comprehensive source information and insufficient dissemination of information to the public, upholding accountability and transparency standards by disclosing information, tracking and evaluating progress, promoting public participation, and holding responsible institutions accountable is key to ensure broad public sup- port. Furthermore, having reliable data on air quality and its sources of degradation is essential for assessments of health impacts and economic analyses, which in turn are key for evidence-based policy making and decision support. Policies to Reduce Vehicle Emissions Motorized vehicles are a main source of air pollution in the Middle East and North Africa. This has been and remains true because of the region’s relatively outdated vehicle fleet, low-quality fuel, and the lack of comprehensive regulations to control exhaust emissions (Waked and Afif 2012). Low, often subsidized fuel prices, an underdeveloped public transportation system, and increasing demand for motor vehicles due to population and economic growth have exacerbated this trend even though the average emissions per kilometer driven have been decreas- ing (Abdallah et al. 2020). Hence, the region’s policy makers should focus on reducing motor vehicle emissions to effectively combat the adverse health, environmental, and economic effects of these emissions. This subsection reviews the main options for reducing emissions from urban mobility, including • Properly pricing fuel by removing distortive fossil fuel subsidies • Introducing environmental fiscal reforms • Improving vehicle technology and strengthening maintenance and inspection • Improving fuel quality and supporting vehicle fuel switching • Strengthening public transportation • Implementing place-based policies (such as LEZs). A broad range of measures are available to combat air pollution caused by vehicles (see tables 3.2 and 3.3). These tables also include additional measures not discussed in the text, because their purpose is to present a broad set of available policy options. Successful examples within the 98 Blue Skies, Blue Seas Middle East and North Africa are discussed in addition to evidence from international best practices. Removing Fossil Fuel Subsidies and Pricing Fuel Appropriately Current subsidies and pricing. Most economies in the Middle East and North Africa heavily subsidize fossil-based fuels. Reducing or removing such subsidies would result in substantial fiscal savings. Although the region’s economies have started to reform these subsidies, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated that transport fuel subsidies amounted to 4 percent of 2019 GDP in Algeria, 2.85 percent in the Islamic Republic of Iran, 1.85 percent in Saudi Arabia, 1.59 percent in Egypt, 1.32 percent in Iraq, and 0.12–0.66 percent in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar.23 The Middle East and North Africa has the world’s lowest fuel prices. As figure 3.17 shows, the 2018 regional average (US$0.74 per liter for gasoline and US$0.69 for diesel) were less than half the 2018 average prices in Europe (US$1.48 and US$1.46 for gasoline and diesel, respec- tively). Between 2016 and 2018, fuel prices also increased the least in the Middle East and North Africa—by only US$0.07 and US$0.13 for gasoline and diesel, respectively. In recent years, these prices have increased in most Middle East and North Africa economies but only slightly. In most of them, fuel prices increased between 2016 and 2018 (figures 3.18 and 3.19), owing largely FIGURE 3.17 Average Diesel and Gasoline Pump Prices Per Liter, by Global Region, 2016 and 2018 a. Diesel prices b. Gasoline prices 150 150 125 125 100 100 75 75 50 50 25 25 0 0 nd as nia ica e a p n d as nia ica pe st ric a ric a r c r a f eme c A f ro t a ica eri ea Af oEu as r u r e E A A d O e E A f Am d O c E l th n l th n Mi dd r a d r aNo d o As ia Mi N As ia 2016 2018 Source: Based on GIZ 2019. Note: Regions differ from World Bank convention because GIZ definitions were used in the original research. Price per liter (US cents) Price per liter (US cents) Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 99 to fuel subsidy reform programs. The exceptions were the Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq, Libya, and Tunisia (regarding diesel prices) as well as the Islamic Republic of Iran, Tunisia, and the Republic of Yemen (regarding gasoline prices). Most of the region’s economies had substantially lower fuel prices than the world average in 2018 (indicated by the dotted orange line in figures 3.18 and 3.19). Notably, GCC prices were among the lowest recorded despite those countries’ much higher incomes than elsewhere in the region. These low fuel prices do not encourage fuel conservation via a price-based signal. Benefits of fuel taxes and subsidy reforms. Cheap fuel leads to overuse and disincentivizes the use of cleaner, green-growth alternatives such as public transportation, nonmotorized transportation, and other options based on noncombustion engines (Asare and Reguant 2020). Higher fuel prices, on the other hand, drive up the relative costs of pri- vate motorized trips. Increasing fuel prices, including fuel taxes, could reduce consumption, lower the contribution of transportation to air pol- lution, and free up fiscal space for spending on important public goods— including support for those affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Eliminating fuel subsidies also helps to level the playing field for development of renewable energy sources. A combined framework FIGURE 3.18 Average Diesel Pump Prices Per Liter in the Middle East and North Africa, by Economy, 2016 and 2018 150 100 50 0 ria n ti . . t r s . ge ra i ou Re p ep raq an ai on y a lta coI d b a c a n ta bia sia te zaa i a e p Al ah jib R r w n i a a ab ic Jo Ku b a L M o m nor O Q Ar r Tu mi d G , R B D Ar am Le n , l M d i s u b E an e pt , I Sa ra nk Ye m gy n aE Ira ted A t B ni We s U 2016 2018 Source: Based on GIZ 2019. Note: The orange line denotes the 2018 world average price. Data for the Syrian Arab Republic are unavailable. Price per liter (US cents) 100 Blue Skies, Blue Seas FIGURE 3.19 Average Gasoline Pump Prices Per Liter in the Middle East and North Africa, by Economy, 2016 and 2018 150 100 50 0 ria n i . .e rai u t ep ep Ira q an ait on ad by alt a cc o an ata r ia sia tesb za p . lg o w n i aah ib b R c Rj i or u ba L M ro Om Q Ar un i J K o ir a Ga R e A B D ra m e i T Em nd en , , A la L M ds u b k at I a a em gy p n, S Ar an Y E Ira d t B nit e es U W 2016 2018 Source: Based on GIZ 2019. Note: The orange line denotes the 2018 world average price. Data for the Syrian Arab Republic are unavailable. that gradually phases out fossil fuel subsidies while incentivizing investments in renewables could induce a switch in the energy mix away from fossil-fuel-based energy and toward renewable sources, including the use of electric cars. It would also help foster a switch to public transportation. Moreover, increasing fuel prices improves air quality. For example, fuel subsidy reforms in Egypt led to price increases that in turn reduced PM10 concentrations in the Greater Cairo area by almost 4 percent (Heger, Zens, and Meisner 2019).24 Similarly, in the Islamic Republic of Iran, removing fuel subsidies led to improvements in Tehran’s air qual- ity (Kheiravar 2019). Both maximum and average daily concentrations of major pollutants were reduced significantly, and the policies were found to be generally effective. A scientific study also investigated the effects of an increase in energy prices, including gasoline, in the Islamic Republic of Iran. It showed that the average Iranian household would reduce its energy consumption by 2 percent, 16 percent, 29 percent, 38 percent, and 45 percent if energy prices were hiked by 10 percent, 50 percent, 100 percent, 150 percent, and 200 percent, respectively (Khatibi et al. 2020). These consumption reductions would lead to decreasing emissions of various pollutants like CO2, NOX, SOX, and PM. Price per liter (US cents) Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 101 These results are promising examples of how the reduction or removal of distortive fuel price subsidies and resulting price increases can contrib- ute to cleaner skies in the Middle East and North Africa. However, it is also important to note that the effectiveness of such measures could vary across the region and should be assessed by regular, objective evaluations to guide policy makers in an evidence-based manner. In addition to reducing carbon emissions, phasing out fossil fuel sub- sidies frees up government funds for other purposes. Globally, removing fossil fuel subsidies and efficiently pricing fuel could have decreased car- bon emissions by 21 percent and reduced the number of deaths related to fossil-fuel-induced air pollution by a staggering 55 percent in 2013, while raising government revenue and social welfare (Coady et al. 2017). An updated study found similar results for 2015, associating the hypo- thetical removal of fossil fuel subsidies with an estimated reduction of 28 percent in global carbon emissions and 46 percent fewer deaths related to fossil-fuel-related air pollution (Coady et al. 2019). The COVID-19 pandemic has shown that constrained public budgets can be an impediment to meeting the needs of the public at times of unexpected shocks to the health system, the economic system, or both. Hence, restructuring the social transfer system away from unsustainable fossil fuel subsidies and toward sectors and programs that especially ben- efit the poor and vulnerable in society would be desirable. In a similar vein, a reduction in fuel subsidies could also be accompanied by income tax reductions that would help relieve the tax burden on workers, in the sense of an “eco-social” tax reform. However, given the high share of informality in some Middle East and North Africa economies, such a plan could benefit only a certain portion of the public. Implementing subsidy reform. To cushion some of the side effects of fuel subsidy reforms, especially on the poor, such reforms should be accompanied by measures to support households during the transition away from subsidies. Although fuel and energy subsidy reform is desira- ble from the perspective of lowering the fiscal burden and enabling green growth, increased fuel prices can also cause hardship for beneficiaries, especially low-income households. Fuel and energy subsidies protect domestic households from volatile prices for these goods in international markets (IMF 2017). However, the bulk of these subsidies are often captured primarily by the richest households in the Middle East and North Africa because of their higher consumption (Fattouh and El-Katiri 2015). Therefore, if the intent is to protect low-income households from volatile prices or to reduce the cost of their basket of elementary goods, this can be achieved much more cost-effectively than through fuel subsidies, which predominantly benefit wealthier households. 102 Blue Skies, Blue Seas Targeted social protection measures such as cash transfers or food subsidies are good tools for cushioning the effect of higher fuel prices (Breisinger et al. 2019). An excerpt from Coady, Flamini, and Sears (2015) provides some lessons from international experience about starting to reform fuel subsidy programs (box 3.3). Learning from these international experiences—and also from more regional ones—is impor- tant for Middle East and North Africa economies to avoid frictions and make reforms as effective but also as acceptable as possible. BOX 3.3 Reforming Fuel Subsidies: Lessons from International Experience Many countries that have successfully misinformation, and should be under- reformed energy subsidies have incorpo- taken throughout the reform process. rated specific measures into their subsidy Transparency is a key component of a reform strategies to overcome these barriers. successful communication strategy. While there is no single recipe for success, • Appropriately phase and sequence price analysis of international reform experiences increases. Phasing in price increases and suggests the following six reform ingredi- sequencing them differently across energy ents can help address reform barriers and products may be desirable. The appropri- increase the likelihood that reforms will ate phasing and sequencing of price achieve their objectives, thus helping to increases will depend on a range of fac- avoid policy reversals: tors, including the magnitude of the price • Develop a comprehensive reform plan. The increases required to eliminate subsidies, reform plan should have clear objectives. the economy’s fiscal position, the political It should identify specific measures that and social context in which reforms are will achieve these objectives and include a being undertaken, and the time needed to timeline for implementing and assessing develop an effective social safety net and these measures. A comprehensive plan communication strategy. However, grad- will incorporate many of the measures ual reform can create additional reform discussed below. Designing and execut- challenges, including lower budgetary ing such a reform plan therefore needs savings in the short term, distortion in careful advance planning. consumption patterns due to sequencing of reform by energy product, and the risk • Develop an effective communication strategy. that opposition may build up over time. An extensive public communication campaign can help generate broad politi- • Improve the efficiency of energy state-owned cal and public support, help prevent enterprises (SOEs). Improving the e fficiency (continued) Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 103 BOX 3.3 Reforming Fuel Subsidies: Lessons from International Experience (Continued) of SOEs (refineries, distribution compa- target, and the need to achieve broad nies, and so on) can reduce the fiscal acceptance of the reform. Subsidy b urden of the energy sector. Energy pro- reform involving SOE restructuring ducers often receive substantial budgetary may require temporary, sector-specific resources—consisting of both current social measures to support employees and and capital transfers—to compensate for enterprises. inefficiencies in production, distribution, • Depoliticize energy pricing. Successful and and revenue collection. Improvements in durable reforms require a depoliticized efficiency can strengthen the financial mechanism for setting energy prices. position of these enterprises and reduce Establishing an automatic pricing for- the need for such transfers. It will mula for fuel products that links domestic also help assure consumers that price energy prices to international energy increases are not simply being used to prices can help distance the government protect inefficient and poorly governed from the pricing of energy and make it producers. clearer that domestic price changes reflect • Implement targeted mitigating measures. changes in international prices that are Well-targeted measures to mitigate the outside the government’s control. Price- impact of energy price increases on the smoothing rules can help prevent large poor are critical for building public sup- price increases. How much smoothing port for subsidy reforms. The degree to the government chooses to implement which compensation should be targeted is will depend on its preference between a strategic decision that involves trade- lower price volatility and higher fiscal offs between fiscal savings, capacity to volatility. Source: Coady, Flamini, and Sears 2015. Current subsidy reform efforts. Liberalization of fuel prices has progressed in certain Middle East and North Africa economies, while for others, there is still a steep climb ahead. Although the region is the world’s heaviest subsidizer of fossil fuels, some of its countries have made big strides in slashing the subsidies. For example, Egypt, Jordan, and Morocco have all implemented or started to implement ambitious plans to reduce fuel subsidies and liberalize their fuel prices. On the other hand, fuel price liberalization in a host of countries such as Algeria, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Libya, and some of the GCC countries still faces headwinds and has not progressed much in this respect. In this latter category, the path toward less subsidization of fossil fuels is 104 Blue Skies, Blue Seas conceivably longer. Furthermore, for countries such as these that are dependent on oil exports, a move toward less-carbon-intensive value chains requires comprehensive commitments to stronger diversification of their economies so as not to be left with stranded assets. Some countries have taken advantage of historically low global oil prices to initiate reforms to their fuel subsidy programs (box 3.4). The 2020 slump in oil prices, resulting partly from the COVID-19 crisis, opened up a window of opportunity for countries to reform their sub- sidy programs and minimize public backlash. Although many of the Middle East and North Africa economies have unfortunately not used this opportunity, others have implemented more or less far-reaching reforms. BOX 3.4 Slashing Fuel Subsidies during Periods of Low Global Oil Prices Reduces Public Discontent Low oil prices reduce the knock-on impacts campaigns that explain the reasoning behind on the population from removing fuel price the reforms are a key element in subsidy subsidies (Benes et al. 2015), because low reduction programs. global prices are passed through to consum- In 2020, several Middle East and North ers (Coady et al. 2019). Africa countries took advantage of low oil To further reduce knock-on impacts and prices and began price reforms. public discontent, compensation for fuel Tunisia introduced an “automatic subsidy removals (especially to the poor) monthly price adjustment mechanism” and clear communication are important (see that liberalizes domestic prices of gasoline also box 3.3). Plans to protect the poorest and diesel and lets them fluctuate with and most vulnerable parts of the population international prices (Cockayne and Calik from the effects of increased fuel prices are 2020). Undertaking this measure when oil necessary if the subsidy reforms are to have prices were low allowed the government a chance at success. For example, in the to cut retail prices, avoiding the political Islamic Republic of Iran, the major subsidy pressure often accompanying such reforms. reform plan in 2010 was supplemented by Algeria raised the prices of gasoline and cash transfers, with almost 90 percent of the diesel because of fiscal pressure induced by general population receiving about US$40 the slump in global oil prices. The price of a month to reduce the economic pressure gasoline was increased by around 7.5 percent caused by the price increases (Fassihi and diesel by more than 20 percent in June 2010). Clear, well-targeted communication 2020 (Dzair Daily 2020), although domestic (continued) Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 105 BOX 3.4 Slashing Fuel Subsidies during Periods of Low Global Oil Prices Reduces Public Discontent (Continued) fuel prices continue to be subsidized (Ahmed reserves diminish (Reuters 2020). The 2020). country’s subsidy system is inefficient, In Libya, the Ministry of Economy with only 20 percent of subsidies reaching proposed reforms of fuel subsidies in Lebanese citizens in need and the rest March 2020, citing their distortive going to better-off residents or leaving nature; furthermore, around 40 percent the country through smuggling to Syria. of subsidized fuel is smuggled outside the However, removing fuel subsidies would country.a At US$0.11 per liter, the price be perceived as hitting the country’s small of gasoline is extremely cheap, even in industrial sector (Rayess 2020). the regional context. The proposal was to Syrian officials announced in May replace the fuel subsidies with direct cash 2020 that automobile fuel subsidies will be subsidies, raise fuel prices, and potentially reduced to tackle the country’s deepening reduce fuel consumption by 30–40 percent economic crises. Cars with engine (Zaptia 2020a). Similar proposals have been displacements of 2,000 cubic centimeters or made by the Libyan policy reform think more as well as owners of more than one car tank, the Economic Salon (Zaptia 2020b). were excluded from receiving subsidies (AP This volume’s drafting team could not 2020). In October 2020, the government verify the implementation of these reforms. increased prices by more than 100 percent However, conflicts between tribal leaders for diesel and more than 50 percent for and the Tripoli government in 2020 led to gasoline amid a fuel shortage that also led blockages of oil facilities, leading to soaring to tighter rationing of both subsidized and prices and increasing black-market sales in unsubsidized fuel (Atalayar 2020). some parts of the country. Even though In contrast, Saudi Aramco, the Saudi the official price of US$0.11 per liter of Arabian major oil company, slashed fuel was maintained, prices charged by gas gasoline prices by almost 50 percent stations varied depending on the location in May 2020 (Khalid 2020) after the and were much higher during these periods kingdom introduced sharp increases on (Westcott 2020). almost all fossil fuels in the course of a Lebanon may have to stop subsidizing reform program in 2018 and smaller price fuel, food, and medicine as its central bank increases in 2019. a. On August 6, 2020, the US Treasury Department imposed sanctions on three Libyans and a Malta- based company, accusing them of acting as a network to smuggle drugs and Libyan fuel into Malta and thereby contributing to instability in Libya (Psaledakis 2020). 106 Blue Skies, Blue Seas COVID-19 brought about some backtracking on subsidies. In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, some countries increased fossil fuel subsidies, contrary to green growth objectives. For instance, in Egypt, the government increased subsidies for the aviation and industry sec- tors (Moisio et al. 2020). Similarly, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (temporarily) increased electricity subsidies for households and the industrial sector. These subsidies amounted to US$240 million in Saudi Arabia and around US$5.7 million in the United Arab Emirates (including water subsidies). In both countries, as in the rest of the Middle East and North Africa, electricity is still mainly produced from fossil fuels; hence, these measures can be considered fossil fuel subsidies (Moisio et al. 2020). In addition, Malta announced a €900 million (7 percent of GDP) package to stimulate economic recovery that includes a reduction in fuel prices. The hope is that these were just temporary measures and that the countries will return to green growth trajectories. Introducing Environmental Fiscal Reforms Environmental fiscal reforms in the form of green taxes in the Middle East and North Africa can be a suitable tool for decreasing pressure on fiscal budgets and promoting more sustainable patterns of consumption. Currently, environmental taxes play a negligible role in the tax-policy mix of most of the region’s economies. Although such taxes in 2018 accounted for around 10 percent of total tax revenue in several EU mem- ber states (such as Bulgaria, Estonia, Greece, and Latvia), in the Middle East and North Africa countries for which data are available, these taxes contributed around 5 percent and 6 percent of tax revenues in Tunisia and Egypt, respectively, and 1.7 percent in Morocco. In the GCC coun- tries, pricing CO2 emissions could generate significant tax revenues (Saidi 2019) that they could use to combat the adverse fiscal effects of the COVID-19 crisis. Box 3.5 discusses international experiences with implementation of environmental fiscal reforms. Several Middle East and North Africa countries introduced envi- ronmental taxes in recent years. In its budget law for the 2019–20 fiscal year, the Islamic Republic of Iran introduced a tax on goods that cause environmental damage in their manufacture or use. A 2 percent tax will be imposed on domestically produced paint, coating, primer, tire, tubes, plastic and electronic toys, plastic containers, polyethylene terephthalate, and melamine, with a 3 percent tax on imports of the same products. Furthermore, locally produced light bulbs, computers, linoleum, cellophane, and nylon will be taxed at 3 percent and imports thereof at 4 percent (Eghtesad Online 2019). Algeria introduced an environmental (pollution) tax on all motor insurance policies of around US$12.50 for passenger vehicles and Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 107 BOX 3.5 Environmental Fiscal Reform: International Experiences Countries around the world have recently in many of the region’s economies. Almost implemented environmentally related tax two-thirds of the region’s workers (excluding measures (Enache 2020). Among those those in the Gulf Cooperation Council implementing or increasing environmental [GCC] countries) are employed in the taxes in 2020, Ireland and Sweden raised informal sector (Gatti et al. 2014), implying their carbon taxes, and Iceland introduced that the tax base of income taxes is actually a tax on fluorinated greenhouse gas (GHG) rather small in these countries. emissions. Ireland has been active in other Environmental taxes have the advantage areas related to environmental taxation— of not being linked to the employment increasing electricity taxes on businesses, status of the polluting persons or entities. replacing the previously applicable surcharge Hence, they can effectively increase tax on diesel vehicle registration of 1 percent revenues while simultaneously putting a with a nitrogen dioxide (NO2)-based sur- price on externalities that otherwise would charge, and prolonging registration tax relief have to be borne by people who haven’t for hybrid vehicles to the end of 2020. caused them. The experiences of several Among other recent international countries are further discussed below. examples, Lithuania implemented a new pollution tax on cars in July 2020 Sweden to encourage purchases of new and less- Sweden is an international role model when polluting vehicles. The Netherlands and it comes to greening the tax system. With Poland extended their special tax treatment the introduction of its carbon tax—pricing of hybrid cars. Denmark, Italy, and Sweden carbon at SKr 250 (around US$30)a per approved new or increased taxes on plastic ton in 1990–91 (the first such tax in the packaging and plastic bags, with Italy world)—Sweden simultaneously reduced delaying the implementation to January other taxes such as its income tax. Through 2021. The United States granted tax credits its grön skatteväxling (which can loosely be for bio and alternative fuels—hence not translated as “green tax-switch”) the mar- raising taxes but trying to shift consumer ginal tax rate on top incomes was reduced demand. Latvia abolished exemptions from 80 percent to 50 percent and the regarding coal, coke, and brown coal used corporate tax rate from 57 percent to 30 for electricity generation from its Natural percent (Jonsson, Ydstedt, and Asen 2020). Resources Tax and increased other tax rates, The carbon tax has steadily increased since such as for the mining of sand. its inception, and at the beginning of 2021, In the Middle East and North Africa, a ton of carbon dioxide (CO2) was priced at environmental taxes could be more effective SKr 1,200 (around US$144).b than income taxes in raising tax revenues, In 2019, the Swedish government given the high degree of informal employment again proposed a similar scheme in which (continued) 108 Blue Skies, Blue Seas BOX 3.5 Environmental Fiscal Reform: International Experiences (Continued) environmental taxes were increased while and exemptions from value added taxes on taxes on jobs and entrepreneurship were goods and services and customs duty on simultaneously reduced. Although changes imported goods. to the carbon tax were not part of this new In 2020, these incentives were expanded package, it included a new excise tax on to include broader activities related to waste incineration and a tax on plastic bags. plant expansion or process improvements. An additional surtax was levied on high- Importantly, these changes include a special income earners, and tax deductions were deduction scheme, incentivizing the switch introduced for employers of new labor- to greener alternatives by applying the market entrants between the ages of 15 and deduction to nonelectrical uses of renewable 18 (Deloitte 2019). energy sources (such as switching away from fossil fuels in the transportation sector Belgium or replacing them with biofuels in the Other countries have used similar industrial sector). When the investment approaches to shift the tax burden from is made to comply with environmental income to environmentally harmful activi- standards, companies do not benefit from ties. Belgium introduced a tax plan that the deduction; hence, they are encouraged reduced employers’ social security contribu- to go beyond the environmental regulations tions gradually, from 32.4 percent in 2016 required by law (EY 2020; OECD 2020). to 25 percent in 2018. It also increased the tax-free amount and tax-deductible busi- Mexico ness expenses to alleviate the tax burden on The government of Mexico reformed its tax labor. To finance these tax cuts, the value system and introduced several measures tar- added tax on electricity and the excise duty geting a greener fiscal system. The General on diesel were increased. Further measures Law on Climate Change in April 2012 gradually increased excise duties on alco- decreased fossil fuel subsidies and introduced holic drinks and tobacco and taxed capital additional taxes. Since August 2014, the more strictly (EC 2017). Hydrocarbons Revenue Law has imposed a special tax regime on companies that engage Colombia in oil exploration and production. It includes The Colombian government introduced exploration-phase fees and royalties, with tax incentives in 2014 to spur investment monthly taxes to be paid by companies to in renewable energy sources. These include municipal and state governments. a special deduction equal to 50 percent for With the country’s 2016 tax reform, investments in renewable energy or energy taxpayers investing in energy efficiency and efficiency, an accelerated depreciation rule, renewable energy equipment are eligible to (continued) Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 109 BOX 3.5 Environmental Fiscal Reform: International Experiences (Continued) obtain a 100 percent up-front deduction for but now including coal albeit at a rather low the costs of these investments. However, level (Arlinghaus and van Dender 2017). companies are eligible to deduct costs The tax reform also included a special of investments only if they comply with mining right royalty of 7.5 percent of net regulations. This can be seen as a way profits derived from the sale or transfer to incentivize companies to go beyond of extraction activities. An additional 0.5 minimum requirements and enhance their percent tax is levied on gross income energy mix. from the sale of gold, silver, and platinum The tax reform of 2016 also abolished fuel (Deloitte 2016). These efforts have helped subsidies and increased taxes on transport the government raise substantial additional fuel to reflect the external cost of fuel more revenues, slowly shifting its income toward closely. Furthermore, a new carbon tax more environmentally friendly sources and was introduced that covers a larger share of shifting it away from reliance on oil exports emissions with a price, as was the case before (Arlinghaus and van Dender 2017). a. Based on the SKr/US$ exchange rate as of January 13, 2021. b. For more information about Sweden’s carbon tax, see the dedicated page “Sweden’s carbon tax” by the Government Offices of Sweden: https://www.government.se/government-policy/swedens -carbon-tax/. US$25 for other vehicles and rolling machines per year in its 2020 draft budget law. Of these tax proceeds, 70 percent were supposed to benefit the state, while the remaining 30 percent were supposed to be allocated to the Solidarity and Guarantee Fund for Local Communities (Atlas Magazine 2020a). Unfortunately, because of pressure by insurers—whose collection of motor premiums was reduced by 10 percent in the first half of 2020 (also strongly affected by lockdown measures)—the 2021 draft finance bill abolished the tax (Atlas Magazine 2020b). Putting taxes in place that target fossil fuels and the emissions caused by them can be successful in lowering air pollution. For example, the Swedish carbon tax, which primarily targets the consumption of gasoline and motor diesel, has reduced CO2 emissions from the transportation sector (Andersson 2019). The carbon tax was implemented together with a value added tax on fuel. Emissions subsequently declined by almost 11 percent, of which 6 percentage points were attributable to the carbon tax. Consumers appeared to respond more strongly to changes in the 110 Blue Skies, Blue Seas tax rate than to equivalent gasoline price changes stemming from market price fluctuations. In another case, Germany’s 1 percent fuel-price hike decreased the number of kilometers driven by 0.4 percent, thus contributing to lower vehicle emissions and higher air quality (Frondel and Vance 2018). Improving Vehicle Technology, Emissions Control, and Inspection Increasing vehicle fuel efficiency requirements and setting vehicle emis- sion limits can decrease air pollution. Continuous renewal of the vehicle fleet with vehicles adhering to emission standards, such as those set by the EU (see box 3.6 on the Euro emissions standards and their adoption in the Middle East and North Africa), have led to a decrease in average emis- sions per driven kilometer in Middle East and North Africa cities (Abdallah et al. 2020). The effects of the penetration of Euro standards in global markets—following from the fact that vehicles exported from Japan, the EU, and the US must fulfill these standards regardless of the domestic regulation in the destination country—are referred to as the “Euro effect” in some scientific studies. PM2.5 emissions were more than BOX 3.6 Vehicle Technology and Related Regulations in the Middle East and North Africa Mandating increased efficiency for newly EU member states, and new vehicles had to produced cars and trucks and setting stand- be equipped with a closed-loop, three-way ards for their maximum emissions are ways catalyst. Subsequent adaptions of the regu- to reduce their environmental impact and lations took place in the following decades decrease the air pollution they cause. The and required reductions of pollutant emis- European Union (EU) puts forward direc- sions from newly introduced cars, with Euro tives for various types of vehicles—the 6 being in effect since September 2014. so-called Euro standards—that regulate Exported vehicles from the EU also must maximum emissions and introduce a set of meet these standards. approval tests that these vehicles must pass Some countries outside the EU before being eligible for sale. followed suit, adopting the same or similar regulations. Not all economies in the New-Vehicle Technology Regulations Middle East and North Africa have adopted Starting in 1992 with the Euro 1 standard, measures to restrict imported cars to fulfill these regulations became mandatory in all the newest Euro emissions standards, but in (continued) Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 111 BOX 3.6 Vehicle Technology and Related Regulations in the Middle East and North Africa (Continued) most of them, certain minimum standards Fuel Content Regulations that correspond to earlier stages of the For emissions technology to work effi- regulation must be met. ciently, the fuel used must fulfill certain Many of the region’s economies have criteria, such as specific sulfur limits. As lower standards or do not set any vehicle the EPA notes, high sulfur content in gas- emissions at all. Morocco is one of the few olines significantly impairs the effective- that has adopted the Euro 4 standard for ness of emission control systems because of light-duty vehicles, while Algeria and Jordan increased sulfur compounds in the exhaust.b have adopted the Euro 3 standard.a In other Taking diesel particulate filters (DPFs) as countries, either lower standards for light- an example, higher sulfur content in the fuel duty vehicles apply (for example, in the leads to higher production of sulfate particu- Islamic Republic of Iran and Saudi Arabia) late in the combustion process, in turn lead- or no policy has been set (for example, ing to quicker saturation of the DPFs. This in Lebanon, Oman, and the Republic of increases the back pressure in the exhaust Yemen). system, which impairs the life cycles of Some countries have introduced DPFs, implying that they have to be regen- vehicle emissions standards for heavy- erated or replaced more often. Studies have duty vehicles, such as the Islamic Republic shown that when fuel has a sulfur content of Iran (Euro IV), but the fleet of such of 50 parts per million (ppm) instead of 10 vehicles in Tehran largely meets Euro ppm, the regeneration temperature needed III or lower standards (Heger and Sarraf rises by around 50 degrees Celsius, imply- 2018). However, more and more cities in ing that in the case of vehicles in city traf- the region are mandating minimum limits fic, reliable regeneration can no longer be for buses in their public transportation ensured. Furthermore, the increased back fleets. For example, the Euro III emission pressure increases the combustion system’s standard is obligatory for buses in Ajman, fuel consumption, undermining efforts to Cairo, Jeddah, Madinah, Makkah, Riyadh, lower emissions caused by DPFs. For the and Tunis, while Abu Dhabi and Dubai emission-decreasing technology prescribed mandate at least Euro IV standards for in emissions standards to work efficiently, buses. Amman in Jordan is prescribing the it is necessary to regulate the quality of the Euro V standard and Bahrain the Euro VI fuel used to run the vehicles, as the subsec- standard. tion on “Upgrading Fuel Quality” discusses. a. Euro standards for light-duty vehicles are denoted with Arabic numerals (for example, Euro 6), while standards for heavy-duty vehicles are denoted with Roman numerals (for example, Euro VI). b. “Gasoline Sulfur,” Gasoline Standards, EPA: https://www.epa.gov/gasoline-standards/gasoline -sulfur. 112 Blue Skies, Blue Seas 60 percent lower in 2010 than they would have been in a world where no such regulations had been put in place (Crippa et al. 2016). New-vehicle technology. Most economies in the Middle East and North Africa already have restrictions on the age of imported used cars. Mandating higher technology levels for new cars would decrease emis- sions from the region’s car fleet and could incentivize car-producing markets to adopt these regulations or stricter ones. Several international empirical studies have examined the effect of exhaust emissions standards on air pollution. For example, the introduc- tion of tougher emissions standards (from pre-Euro regulations to Euro 4) significantly reduced exhaust emissions from gasoline-powered cars in London’s vehicle fleet. For diesel cars, the evidence was less clear; in general, emissions from diesel-fueled cars were found to be substantially higher than those from gasoline-fueled cars (Rhys-Tyler, Legassick, and Bell 2011). Air pollution regulations in India requiring catalytic converters for new vehicles have had considerable positive effects on air quality. PM concentrations were reduced by 19 percent five years after the implementation of the regulation. Its adoption is also associated with a decline in infant mortality—though only modestly, with the statistical relationship not being significant (Greenstone and Hanna 2014). Emission controls. Tackling air pollution from vehicles by rais- ing emissions standards carries economic benefits for vehicle owners. Improved vehicle emissions standards and the accompanying technol- ogy upgrades increase cars’ fuel efficiency and are highly viable from an economic perspective. Cost-benefit assessments for several already implemented or planned emissions standard improvements in various countries have shown that the annual benefit-cost ratio of such measures ranges from a minimum of 1.4:1 up to 16:1 when considering fuel costs and decreased health costs stemming from reduced air pollution. Relating this to costs per vehicle, the additional costs for equipping vehicles with technologies to fulfill higher emissions standards are amor- tized within an estimated time period of 1.5 to 5 years, depending on the emissions standard considered (Kodjak 2015). This also applies to meas- ures such as the introduction of diesel particulate filters that can lead to lower fuel consumption, carrying economic benefits for vehicle owners. Inspections. Regular checks are necessary to ensure vehicles’ com- pliance with emissions standards. Highlighting the importance of such checks, 25 percent of cars in Tehran failed to comply with maximum emission levels or had other deficiencies in their mandatory yearly checks (Tehran Times 2019). The introduction of mandatory vehicle inspections has led to a 44 percent decrease in black carbon emissions and mitigated air pollution significantly, according to Tehrani officials. From a regulatory viewpoint, mandating regular checks (using fines or banning use of the vehicle as the consequence of noncompliance) is a Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 113 simple but effective policy instrument, but it has to be enforced effectively. For example, practices such as removing catalytic converters or adjusting engine parameters are still widespread in Lebanon, highlighting the need for stricter regulations on regular inspections (Abdallah et al. 2020). In addition, achieving comprehensive, regular vehicle checks involves setting up vehicle inspection garages and training staff to perform the checks. To incentivize regular inspections, monetary as well as nonmonetary benefits can be employed. Monetary incentives include tax breaks for upgrades and repairs, while nonmonetary benefits can be granted in the form of allowing only inspected vehicles to enter LEZs, as is the case in Tehran. To lower the perceived costs to vehicle owners, the city of Tehran provides mobile vehicle inspection units to reduce waiting times and ease access to official inspections (Financial Tribune 2018). Introducing mandatory vehicle inspections has the dual advantage of job creation in this sector while alleviating air pollution from outdated vehicles. From an economic point of view, the jobs created from setting up the necessary garages would add employment opportunities for the population and an accompanying rise in living standard. Furthermore, the government tax revenues stemming from these additional jobs and services could be considerable. The additional costs of inspections for vehicle owners could be subsidized to reduce the refusal rates, perhaps by lowering the tax rates applicable to these inspections and any repair services needed to fix car deficiencies. Upgrading Fuel Quality and Supporting Vehicle Fuel Switching Fuel quality standards. The quality and content of fuel for motorized vehicles play significant roles in the emission of hazardous pollutants. Upgrading fuel quality by establishing maximum limits for lead and sulfur contents in fuels—two ingredients that emit as particularly harmful pollutants in the combustion process—should therefore be the primary concern of regulators worldwide. With the Euro directives on fuel qual- ity, the EU has set standards for automotive fuels and lately also marine ones. The Middle East and North Africa generally lags other regions in setting comprehensive and appropriate fuel quality standards (box 3.7). The adoption of Euro IV standards in Tehran’s transportation sec- tor, with an emphasis on taxis, has considerably reduced air pollutants and raised air quality (Ghadiri, Rashidi, and Broomandi 2017). The effectiveness of such policies has also been shown in a host of studies of Chinese provinces, which between 2013 and 2017 adopted regulations that mimic those in Europe, Japan, and the United States. The adop- tion of these standards significantly improved air quality, particularly in reductions of PM and ozone (Li, Lu, and Wang 2020; Wei 2019; Yang, Jiang, and Pan 2020). 114 Blue Skies, Blue Seas BOX 3.7 Fuel Quality Standards in the Middle East and North Africa Similar to its emissions standards, the leaded gasoline, the only country worldwide European Union (EU) mandates fuel qual- that has not outlawed its use is Algeria ity standards, particularly regarding the (UNEP 2021). maximum limits of certain contents such Most Middle East and North Africa as sulfur and lead. The first set of standards economies do not comply with international were voluntary (but observed by all fuel sup- benchmarks for sulfur limits in diesel fuel pliers in Europe), and the first mandatory (UNEP 2020). Only Malta (which, as an regulations were introduced in 1998, which, EU member, must comply with the 10 among other indicators, limited sulfur to ppm limit), Morocco, and the United Arab 50 parts per million (ppm). The currently Emirates have explicitly set sulfur limits applicable Euro 5 standard limits the maxi- for diesel that match international best mum sulfur content to 10 ppm (gasoline practices (figure B3.7.1). Qatar did not set and diesel) and was implemented in 2009. It the maximum sulfur limit of diesel to 10 also includes limits for the minimum octane ppm directly, but Qatar Petroleum, the number and cetane number for gasoline and country’s sole diesel supplier, announced diesel, respectively (ICCT and DieselNet, that, as of the end of September 2020, n.d.). its refinery would provide only ultra-low- Similar to the EU, Canada and the sulfur diesel meeting Euro 5 specifications United States prescribe a maximum sulfur (Hydrocarbon Processing 2020). This move content of 15 ppm in both gasoline and sets the de facto limit of diesel sulfur content diesel. More recently, China lowered the to the same limit currently applicable in maximum limit for fuels to 10 ppm in 2017, the EU. and India has joined the list, prescribing 10 Some other countries have recently ppm for diesel and gasoline in April 2020. lowered the sulfur limits for gasoline or Decreasing the sulfur limit from 50 ppm to are planning to do so. Oman reduced the 10 ppm can reduce fuel consumption by 2–3 maximum limit to 10 ppm in December percent in most vehicles (Marsh, Hill, and 2019, becoming the first country in the Gulf Sully 2000). Cooperation Council (GCC) to implement Conversely, almost all economies in the such strict regulations on gasoline. The Middle East and North Africa are lagging United Arab Emirates reduced the sulfur in adopting fuel-sulfur limits comparable limit from 100 ppm to 50 ppm in May to the most recent (Euro 5) or to other 2017. Saudi Arabia intends to lower sulfur international standards. Furthermore, even limits from 500 ppm to 10 ppm with the though almost all the region’s economies completion of its Clean Fuels Project in have adopted prohibitions on the use of 2024 (Stratas Advisors 2019). (continued) Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 115 BOX 3.7 Fuel Quality Standards in the Middle East and North Africa (Continued) FIGURE B3.7.1 Diesel Sulfur Limits in the Middle East and North Africa, by Economy, 2020 a eri rai n i . . ou t p a te a a a a a s g h b R ep . raq an i nI d wa no iby o n l r u a L Ma lt cc a ar bi i e p a ji b R o b ro Om a t raA un is rat Re A B D ra ic J K o Le M Q i n, , A m ud i T a b Em me pt Isl Sa ay , Ar Y e Eg ran dI e Un it Diesel sulfur content (ppm) 10–15 ppm 51–500 ppm 2,001–5,000 ppm 16–50 ppm 501–2,000 ppm >5,000 ppm Source: Based on data from UNEP 2020. Note: The orange line denotes international benchmarks of 10–15 parts per million (ppm). Data for the Syrian Arab Republic and West Bank and Gaza are unavailable. a. In the Islamic Republic of Iran, the limit of 50 ppm is applied in several major cities but is not nationally mandated. In Qatar, diesel has a sulfur content of 10 ppm, but this limit is not specifically mandated. Switching to higher-quality fuel imposes costs on fuel producers, distributors, and end consumers, all of whom may need to be supported. To ease the transition to these new standards, subsidies for technology upgrades by both producers and distributors should be considered. To nudge these actors into faster adoption of the necessary technologies, these programs could be designed such that the subsidies decline during the phase-in period for the implementation and adoption of the new regulations. This would incentivize fuel producers and distributors to avoid postponing necessary investments, hence improving air quality faster. Conversely, to incentivize end consumers to use higher-quality fuel even before standards become mandatory, a gradually increasing tax on lower-quality fuels could be a helpful tool. 116 Blue Skies, Blue Seas Vehicle fuel switching. Increasing the share of vehicles run by alter- natives to fossil fuels—for example, electric or hydrogen gas cars—can decrease air pollution. Switching to such alternatives should be accom- panied by reforms that also switch energy production away from fossil fuels (as discussed later in the subsection on emissions from energy and industrial sources). However, because the Middle East and North Africa’s economies have high potential for producing electricity from renewable sources, increasing the share of electric vehicles may be an effective means of reducing the region’s air pollution. Lifting import restrictions and lowering or abolishing tariffs on such vehicles, as was done in the Islamic Republic of Iran (Singh 2015), would lower their prices relative to vehicles run by traditional combus- tion engines. Incentives could also include purchase subsidies, subsidies for recharging vehicles at public charging stations, and support for the installation of private charging systems. Nonmonetary incentives could include allowing such vehicles to enter LEZs for free, use special lanes shared with public transportation, and use free parking services in short- term parking zones. Similar incentive schemes for electric cars are in place in several European cities such as Oslo or Stockholm, which have large shares of electric vehicles in their overall vehicle fleets. To support an electrification of the transportation sector, the needed infrastructure must be put in place. To enable a switch to a cleaner transportation fleet, a transition of the power sector to more renewa- bles is a prerequisite. These challenges are intertwined because the deployment of renewable energy on a large scale requires large-scale investments, as does the broader adoption of electric vehicles. Hence, these changes could and should unlock potential synergies of necessary infrastructure investments, such as installing grid storage solutions for energy derived from renewable sources and charging stations for elec- tric vehicles. Similarly, future projects to expand public transportation systems could also be accompanied by measures to expand the use of alternative propulsion systems—for example, by introducing electric bus fleets as some of the region’s cities did, including Doha, Marrakesh, and Tunis (UITP 2019). Extending Public Transportation and Nonmotorized Options In the Middle East and North Africa, two out of three residents live in urban areas (figure 3.20, panel a), and this figure is set to rise in the com- ing decades. Moreover, the region’s population is highly concentrated in its largest centers, with more than one-fourth of the population living in an economy’s largest city, outpaced only by Sub-Saharan Africa in this respect (figure 3.20, panel b). Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 117 FIGURE 3.20 Shares of Total Population Living in Urban Areas and Country’s Largest City, by Global Region, 2018 a. Urban population b. Population in largest city 90 30 80 25 70 60 20 50 15 40 30 10 20 5 10 0 0 ific sia an ica ica ica ica ific sia an ica ica ica ica Pa c l Aa ibb e r r r r e r r r r r r h A f e c A d t Am h Af Af Pa f n ra l ibb A m e Afd t r Af n n Ca rt h ut ra a rt h A th an ia a Ce e N o rt So hao a ia an en C o rth ou a r As nd t h nd N -S As nd C e N S h a d a b a d th nd N o Sa st e t - a p an t u s n t a ub E ro ica Ea s S a peE a a as S Eu er role Eu er ic d le E Am id Am d d tin M n M i La La ti Source: Based on UN DESA 2018. Note: “North America” includes Canada and the United States. Extending public transportation. This high concentration in large cities makes a functioning and efficient public transportation system necessary both to reduce air pollution and to provide the local popula- tion with increased mobility and accessibility. Having convenient access to public transportation is an important part of making “cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable,” as formu- lated under the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 11.25 Expanding the extent of public transportation systems and encouraging their use over personal transportation reduces congestion, helps improve local air quality, and reduces GHG emissions (Parry et al. 2014). However, public transportation systems are often poorly developed and poorly used in the Middle East and North Africa, even in many major cities. Extensive, efficient public transportation systems play a key role in sustainable city development. They are also of major importance to improving air quality. In most cities of the Middle East and North Africa, however, the primary mode of transportation is still the personal combustion vehicle (UITP 2019), often owing to a lack of adequate pub- lic transportation infrastructure. Share of total population (%) Share of total population (%) 118 Blue Skies, Blue Seas In a recent global regional comparison, the Middle East and North Africa had the third highest share of people using their own cars for transportation. The study showed that the region’s car share (the share of trips by car as a percentage of all motorized trips) amounted to 71.5 percent, the third highest share after North America and the Europe and Central Asia region (Fountas et al. 2020), as shown in figure 3.21. Weak transportation systems result in excessive use of often outdated personal vehicles, which in turn leads to high traffic intensities and congestion in the region’s cities (Waked and Afif 2012). Extending the public transportation system requires investments in vehicle fleets such as buses and adequate associated infrastructure like special road lanes for public transportation, tram rails, and pickup stations. These efforts should be accompanied by appropriate urban planning to ensure their integration into longer-term city expansion plans. In the procurement of public transportation fleets, it is crucial to ensure that vehicles meet emissions standards (such as those dis- cussed earlier) or preferably rely on alternative energies such as electric or hybrid engines. Some cities in the Middle East and North Africa FIGURE 3.21 Share of All Motorized Trips Using Personal Cars, by Global Region 100 75 50 25 0 ific sia an ica ica sia ica Pa c l A e fr r A r d tra e rib b h A hAm ut n Af n n Ca rt a Ce e No rth a S o ha ra si d th d No Sa st A e a n d a an st an -ub E op S ur ric a Ea E e dle Am id ati n M L Source: Based on Fountas et al. 2020. Note: Years of data differ between countries. For a subset of countries, the share is estimated. “North America” includes Canada and the United States. Share of all motorized trips (%) Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 119 (Alexandria, Doha, Tehran, and Tunis) have already made progress in this respect by introducing electric buses in their fleets (UITP 2019), a trend that other cities should emulate. To induce more of the population to use public transportation, prices for these services must be affordable and provide a cost advantage over using the personal car. For people without a vehicle (that is, the poorer part of the population), prices for public transportation must not be pro- hibitive. Removing taxes from tickets or making them tax deductible may increase the incentive to use such services. Similarly, tax exemptions for long-term subscriptions that private companies provide to employees as part of their compensation can incentivize companies to encourage their employees to use public transit. Evidence shows that public transportation infrastructure projects have beneficial effects on air pollution in Middle East and North Africa cities. For example, the opening of a new metro line in Cairo decreased vehicle use and at the same time reduced PM10 concentrations by around 3 percent (Heger, Zens, and Meisner 2019). The extension of the urban rail transit system in the city of Ahvaz in the Islamic Republic of Iran has the potential to reduce air pollutants substantially by reducing the amount of fuel used, owing to increased ridership on the new metro lines (Tabatabaiee, Abbas, and Rahman 2011). Furthermore, increasing con- nectivity between cities with public transportation systems (for example, through rails) can have the added benefit, if rails are used for transport- ing goods, of potentially reducing the number of heavy-duty vehicles used for this purpose, hence lowering their emissions. Extending public transportation systems to be more efficient, timely, and widely accessible could also increase job prospects for the poor. Especially among people lacking access to personal vehicles, such as low- income households, the extension of the public transportation system could open up more job opportunities (Pang, Chen, and Zhang 2017). Living standards within these populations could be increased while also strengthening the local economy and potentially raising government tax revenues. Extending public transportation systems to cities’ underserved areas can thus help revitalize their economies by improving connectivity. In the Middle East and North Africa and around the world, the World Bank has supported various public transportation projects. In Morocco, for example, the Bank supported the government in strength- ening the capacity of urban transportation institutions in a project started in 2015. By the end of 2020, around US$186 million in the form of loans had been disbursed, and the project had achieved most of its objectives despite the adverse effects caused by the COVID-19 crisis (World Bank 2021a). Within the course of the project, municipality-owned urban transportation centers were set up, mobility master plans were prepared, 120 Blue Skies, Blue Seas and more than 20 cities were assisted in improving their institutional capacity for urban transportation. Given these successes, additional financing was approved in December 2020, extending the project until 2024 with loans worth up to US$150 million (World Bank 2020b). The World Bank has also recently supported the implementation of several public transportation projects in other regions, including metro lines in Colombia starting in 2018 (World Bank 2018) and bus rapid transit extensions in Peru starting in 2020 (World Bank 2019a). Advancing such projects in the Middle East and North Africa econo- mies is important given their notoriously low use of public transporta- tion (box 3.8). Nonmotorized transportation options. Increasing the share of nonmotorized transportation is another important step toward reducing emissions and raising air quality. Facilitating and promoting the switch away from transportation in combustion vehicles altogether could fur- ther reduce air pollution while simultaneously inducing more physical BOX 3.8 Public Transportation in Middle East and North Africa’s Cities Adoption of public transportation by large and North Africa cities is generally rather parts of the population is low in many low relative to the international comparators. major cities of the Middle East and North With few exceptions (Oran in Algeria as well Africa. In its recent “MENA Transport as Tehran and Tabriz in the Islamic Republic Report 2019,” the International Association of Iran), public transportation accounts of Public Transport compared the modal for less than a quarter of motorized trips shares in some of the region’s cities with in the region’s cities under consideration. those in major cities of other regions (UITP Especially cities in the high-income 2019). Figure B3.8.1 shows the number countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council of trips by public transportation as a share (GCC), where cars are a symbol of prestige, of all motorized trips. It includes selected have relatively low public transportation use major cities within the Middle East and compared with cities of comparable income North Africa for which the modal share was levels. Hence, inducing a switch of the modal reported in the past 10 years alongside the share toward mass transit and nonmotorized modal shares of other international cities forms of transportation such as cycling or in 2012. walking may also need some form of cultural As can be seen, the modal share of public rethinking to make the latter socially more transportation in the selected Middle East accepted. (continued) Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 121 BOX 3.8 Public Transportation in Middle East and North Africa’s Cities (Continued) FIGURE B3.8.1 Trips by Public Transportation as a Share of Total Motorized Trips in Selected Cities Worldwide and in the Middle East and North Africa Hong Kong SAR, China, 2012 82.0 Prague, 2012 67.51 Singapore, 2012 56.97 Tokyo, 2012 53.23 Barcelona, 2012 49.92 Seoul, 2012 48.43 London, 2012 47.40 Berlin, 2012 45.61 Brussels, 2012 43.53 Madrid, 2012 41.22 Taipei, Taiwan, China, 2012 40.0 Oran, 2010 38.0 Tehran, 2017 35.13 Paris, 2012 34.13 Tabriz, 2016 33.33 Mashhad, 2015 22.11 Sfax, 2012 21.0 Alexandria, 2015 19.80 Tangiers, 2014 18.0 Dubai, 2017 16.35 Shiraz, 2015 14.31 Amman, 2017 13.51 Agadir, 2013 10.21 Fex, 2011 10 Marrakesh, 2008 5.0 Kuwait, 2009 4.49 Abu Dhabi, 2015 2.86 Riyadh, 2016 2.06 Beirut, 2009 2.0 Muscat, 2017 1.74 Bahrain, 2017 1.46 Jeddah, 2013 1.07 Constantine, 2010 1.04 Doha, 2016 <1.0 Madinah, 2018 0.43 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 PT model share Middle East and North Africa cities Other regions Source: Adapted from UITP 2019. Note: Data for cities outside the Middle East and North Africa region are 2012 data, taken from the 2015 International Association of Public Transport (UITP) Mobility in Cities database. Among Middle East and North Africa cities, those with modal split data older than 10 years are excluded in this benchmarking, which refers to the share of trips by public transportation (PT) in comparison to overall motorized trips. This means that trips by nonmotorized modes (for example, by walking or bike) are not considered. Owing to data limitations, the figure does not include either Cairo or Algiers, where PT was used for around two-thirds of motorized trips (according to UITP data from 2001 and 2004, respectively). Furthermore, other cities such as Marrakesh and Rabat in Morocco feature high shares of walking in their overall modal split. (continued) 122 Blue Skies, Blue Seas BOX 3.8 Public Transportation in Middle East and North Africa’s Cities (Continued) Projects in the Pipeline several projects in major cities like Doha, Many of the region’s countries have recently Muscat, Kuwait, Abu Dhabi, and Dubai, stepped up their game to extend their pub- among others. The Riyadh Metro system lic transportation systems, and numerous constitutes the largest single-phase metro projects are currently in the pipeline (UITP construction project worldwide and was 2019): set to open, at least partially, in 2021. The final system will include six lines • In the Mashreq, several countries are totaling about 170 kilometers of rails investing heavily. The Islamic Republic connecting various parts of the Saudi of Iran is expanding its national rail net- capital, at a total project cost of about work, and major cities like Tehran, Shi- US$24.4 billion (Smith 2020). To com- raz, Mashhad, and Tabriz are extending plement the metro system, a citywide their urban public transportation systems, 1,900-kilometer bus network with including projects involving their metro around 3,000 stops is also being devel- networks, inner-city bus lines, and rail oped. These measures constitute an lines. Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon are all important step to rebalance the current looking to extend their national railway modal split, where only 2 percent of systems as well as intercity bus services motorized trips are by public transporta- connecting major cities, and urban proj- tion (Smith 2020). ects for intracity public transportation systems are on the rise. The Cairo Model • In the Maghreb, notable projects include Cairo has one of the most extensive public the metro extension in Algiers (already a transportation systems in the Middle East city with one of the region’s highest and North Africa and continues to extend shares of public transportation trips). it. Cairo is not part of the sample shown in Africa’s first high-speed line—connecting figure B3.8.1 because of data constraints, Tangier with Kenitra in Morocco— but already in 2001, two-thirds of motorized opened in November 2018 and represents trips taken were by public transportation an important cornerstone of the king- (UITP 2019). dom’s 2040 rail strategy. And the Tuni- Since then, public transportation services sian railway expansion connects Gabès have been extended further, and the ongoing and Medenine with an extension to Port metro extension is a notable example. Zavis near Djerba Island. Despite the difficult situation caused by the COVID-19 crisis, the fourth phase of line • In the GCC, countries are investing heav- 3 was opened in August 2020, connecting ily in their public transportation systems the Heliopolis suburb with the Adly to increase their low modal shares, with Mansour transit hub in the east of Cairo. (continued) Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 123 BOX 3.8 Public Transportation in Middle East and North Africa’s Cities (Continued) Extensions of the line—in the east to Cairo’s surrounding areas. Several projects Cairo International Airport and to the west to introduce monorail or light-rail trains across the Nile—are under construction. are under review, with a potential length of Construction of line 4 should start shortly more than 150 kilometers. The introduction (Burroughs 2020). of special lanes to facilitate wider adoption Cairo officials also seek to expand other of both buses and bicycles is in the planning means of public transportation to incorporate stage. activity by residents. As noted earlier, the comorbidities that AAP shares with low physical activity and obesity exacerbate the health effects of the individual risk factors. Therefore, making cities more walkable advances an important option for nonmotorized transportation. Nonmotorized options are increasing in importance internationally as well as in the Middle East and North Africa. Some cities, such as Paris, have made great strides in the extension of nonmotorized alternatives by extending bicycle lanes. In the Middle East and North Africa, infrastruc- ture that supports nonmotorized transportation is still in its infancy, but initiatives like bike-sharing services are also on the rise. There are several such services in Iranian cities (Therna, Shiraz, Mashhad, and Tabriz); in several cities in the GCC countries (Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, Kuwait, and Kaec); and in Byblos in Lebanon, El Gouna in Egypt, and Marrakesh in Morocco (UITP 2019). To make nonmotorized transportation options safe, it is essential to ensure that the roads are safe for users of these options and for pedes- trians. A viable way to promote the wider adoption of bicycles in the region’s cities would be the extension of safe cycling paths, which could come in combination with special lanes reserved for buses. However, lanes that combine buses and bicycles lead to relatively frequent close interactions between them, posing a danger to cyclists and potentially increasing the incidence of bicycle accidents. Hence, guidelines for the design of such lanes should be thoroughly explored and refined to ensure safety of all road users, especially bicyclists (De Ceunynck et al. 2017). Furthermore, a range of potential urban geographical issues or cul- tural challenges facing female cyclists must be considered when design- ing traffic systems and policies to promote the broader adoption of cycling in the region. Increasing the walkability of cities requires not 124 Blue Skies, Blue Seas only safe pavements but also enhanced traffic management (for exam- ple, traffic lights at crosswalks). Additionally, place-based policies such as pedestrian zones (further discussed in the next subsection) are useful for ensuring pedestrians’ safety and relieving congested city centers of excessive traffic. Implementing Place-Based Policies The air in urban areas, particularly in city centers, is often significantly more polluted than the air in surrounding suburbs or rural areas. High traffic loads due to commuters, in combination with impaired air exchange stemming from multistory buildings, are among the main factors driving the generally worse air quality in urban areas. Cities around the world have thus adopted various types of policies that restrict traffic either within an entire city or in parts of it. Such place-based policies can be effective in lowering air pollution and come in different forms (see box 3.9 for some international examples). LEZs, pollution and congestion charges, and driving restrictions are the best known of these place-based policies. BOX 3.9 Place-Based Policies and Their Effects on Air Pollution Since the first low emission zones (LEZs) The introduction of London’s LEZ were implemented in several cities in has substantially increased the rate of Sweden in the 1990s, they have become fleet turnover to vehicles meeting higher widespread around the world, especially in emissions standards. Furthermore, a Europe. Several variations on these systems significant, albeit not large, reduction of are described below. particulate matter (PM) concentration has been recorded within the LEZ (Ellison, London’s LEZ and Ultra LEZ Greaves, and Hensher 2013). Since April Currently, the largest LEZ in operation is 2019, parts of central London are now in the United Kingdom; it covers almost all declared to be an “Ultra Low Emission of Greater London and applies to a wide Zone (ULEZ)” with stricter regulations. In range of commercial vehicles that do not October 2021, the ULEZ was expanded to meet certain Euro emissions standards as cover a larger area, including the North and well as to vans, pickups, and other more- South Circular roads (Lydall 2021). polluting vehicles. Eligibility to enter the Tehran’s Inspection-Based LEZ LEZ is monitored through an automatic Tehran introduced an LEZ intended to license plate scanning system. replace the driving restrictions based on (continued) Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 125 BOX 3.9 Place-Based Policies and Their Effects on Air Pollution (Continued) license plate numbers, even though the two percent, respectively, and the number of systems were in place simultaneously for a acute asthma care visits of children under time. Tehran’s LEZ bans the entrance of the age of five decreased by 50 percent cars that have not successfully undergone (Simeonova et al. 2019). Vehicles using the mandatory yearly inspection. However, alternative fuels were temporarily exempted the extension of the system to also restrict from the charges through 2008, which entry for cars not fulfilling certain emis- increased sales of such cars significantly sions standards would be necessary to make and showcased the potential to use such it a “real” LEZ (Heger and Sarraf 2018). systems as incentives themselves (Börjesson The cars that undergo inspections receive et al. 2012). Studies on the impact on retail a sticker whose color indicates whether the revenues concluded that there were no emissions are low enough to enter the LEZ negative effects (Daunfeldt, Rudholm, and or are too high for the LEZ. The Tehran Air Rämme 2009). Quality Control Company, which assessed the implementation of the LEZ scheme, Beijing’s Driving Restrictions reports that the LEZ has been effective in Driving restrictions for vehicles, often reducing traffic emissions and consequently randomly assigned based on certain parts curbed air pollution. of their license plate number, have been implemented in numerous cities around the Stockholm’s Congestion Pricing world. In July 2008, Beijing implemented Stockholm introduced a congestion pricing an odd-even system that restricted cars to system in August 2007 after a six-month driving only every other day based on the trial period. The program was opposed by last number of their license plate. This sys- most of the municipalities in the country tem was replaced by driving restrictions that except those inside the affected zone. The prohibited the use of cars for one day per charges vary depending on the time of the week, again based on license plate number. day and are collected automatically using During periods of particularly severe air license plate scanning technology. In 2016, pollution, Beijing reverts to the odd-even the congestion tax was raised, with a focus system. These restrictions do not apply to on commuting hours, and outreach was electric cars. extended. The additional revenues were ear- The effects of Beijing’s driving marked for the extension of the Stockholm restrictions on air pollution were also metro system (STA and Trafikverket 2015). positive, significantly reducing PM, with The system has had positive effects the odd-even system decreasing PM10 on air pollution levels and on the health concentration levels by 18 percent and the of local children. The levels of NO2 and one-day-per-week system by 21 percent PM10 fell by 15–20 percent and by 10–15 (Viard and Fu 2015). 126 Blue Skies, Blue Seas LEZs, which are widespread in Europe, restrict the most-polluting vehicles, usually allowing only vehicles with some sort of validation or certification into the zone (or charging them if they do not). For exam- ple, in Tehran, only cars that have undergone the mandatory annual inspection are allowed to enter the LEZ, with fines being imposed on noncompliers. In a similar spirit, congestion charges restrict access to certain areas of a city by charging a certain amount for vehicles to enter. Hence, vehicle owners’ willingness to pay serves as a criterion for entrance into the regulated zone. One common criticism of both types of restrictions is that they affect people differently based on their income and could affect the job prospects of those who cannot afford cleaner vehicles or the charges levied. Hence, another way to restrict driving in certain areas—practiced internationally but also in the Middle East and North Africa—is to use random assignment based on license plate numbers. One typical way of doing this is to use an odd-even scheme: every other day, only vehicles whose license plates end with an odd number may enter the restricted zones; on the alternate days, only vehicles whose plates end with even numbers may enter. Place-based measures necessitate complementary investments, and the costs to residents must be considered in their introduc- tion. Such investments include the development of efficient public transportation systems as alternative entrances and exits for the vehicle-restricted locations. Furthermore, an effective detection and collection system must be established to detect noncompliers. Automated license plate scanning systems are often needed to imple- ment LEZs or congestion charges, although driving restrictions based on, for example, detecting the last number of the license plate may be simpler and can be carried out manually. Typically, penalties for noncompliance are used as economic incentives. Cities should also consider ways to ease the transition for local businesses and resi- dents in the form of allowances for switching their cars to alternatives with lower or zero emissions or offering free public transportation if they get rid of their cars. Reducing Vehicle Emissions: The Policy Spectrum A broad spectrum of actions can be taken to combat air pollution from vehicles in the Middle East and North Africa. The discussion above out- lined some possible routes to reducing vehicle emissions. Table 3.2 pro- vides a comprehensive overview of such measures. For each measure, a rapid assessment of the main aspects important for policy evaluation has been carried out, which is based on international experiences and region- specific expert judgment. While not exhaustive in this regard, the selected Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 127 TABLE 3.2 Overview of Policy Options to Reduce Vehicle Emissions Timeline for Main subobjective Measure implementation Financial cost Effectiveness Emission control (retrofit or new fit) medium medium high Vehicle combustion efficiency technology Reduce emissions medium medium medium(retrofit or new fit) from combustion Vehicle inspection and testing short medium high vehicles Optimizing speed limits short low medium Fuel-quality upgrade medium high high Reduce number of Vehicle scrappage short high high combustion vehicles Vehicle fuel switching medium medium high Traffic management (for example, changing directions, diversion to less medium low medium Reduce trips in congested roads) combustion vehicles Parking management medium low medium Freight management medium medium medium Increasing fuel prices short medium high Encourage modal shift (discourage driving long high high of personal combustion vehicles) Public procurement of low-emission long medium medium vehicles Vehicle-restricted areas medium medium medium Reduce demand for Low emission zones medium medium medium trips in combustion vehicles Road space rationing (for example, short low high alternate day or no-drive days) Pollution or congestion charges medium low high Communication technology to encourage short low low home-based work and telecommuting Information campaigns encouraging low medium low low emission travel Source: Based on World Bank data. Note: The classifications of the qualifiers—timeline (short, medium, long); cost (low, medium, high); and effectiveness (low, medium, high)— are based on expansive literature reviews and the expert judgment of the report-writing team. (A full list of surveyed literature is available on request.) qualifiers cover (a) the time that it takes to implement a given measure, (b) the financial costs associated with it, and (c) the expected effectiveness. The financial costs include both direct costs for technology upgrades and operations and maintenance costs. Table 3.3 then provides more-detailed descriptions of the technology needed to implement the measures, market-based instruments (MBIs) that can assist in their adoption, and supporting regulations for these MBIs. 128 Blue Skies, Blue SeasTABLE 3.3 Detailed Description of Policy Options to Reduce Vehicle Emissions Main subobjective Measure Technology Market-based instrument (MBI) Regulations supporting MBIs End-of-pipe technology such as diesel particulate Emission control (retrofit or filters (DPFs), selective catalytic reduction (SCR), and Subsidies for cleaner technologies; charges for Mandating specified emission-control new fit) exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) (for example, Euro I–VIa emission-intensive technologies standards emission standards) Vehicle combustion efficiency Subsidies for cleaner cars, higher taxes on dirtier Vehicle efficiency standards (improving fuel economy) Licensing of appropriate technologies Reduce emissions technology (retrofit or new fit) ones from combustion Vehicle inspection garages (including dynamometers Tax-free repair services; entrance to LEZ free of Mandatory vehicle tests (for example, Vehicle inspection and testing vehicles and so forth); training of staff charge; lower parking fees annually) Detection (gantry, cameras, and so forth) and Optimizing speed limits Penalties for speeding and noncompliance Traffic mandates collection system Ban of low-quality fuels or mandates for Desulfurization, Euro 1–5a fuel standards, and Rebates for cleaner fuel producers and distributors; Fuel-quality upgrade higher-quality fuels (for example, sulfur improved fuel distribution system additional charges on dirtier ones such as diesel below 10 ppm) Car allowance rebate system (for example, “cash for Reduce numbers of Vehicle scrappage Scrappage technology Vehicle or technology age limits clunkers”) combustion Electric vehicles, hydro vehicles, and natural gas Subsidies for greener vehicles; free parking services Mandating cleaner vehicle fleets; vehicles Vehicle fuel switching vehicles or entry into special zones; tax exemptions entrance into LEZs or use of special lanes Traffic management (for example, changing directions, Street monitoring system; automated diversion Penalties for noncompliance Traffic mandates diversion to less-congested technology; street planning roads) Road space rationing (for Detection (gantry, cameras, and so forth) and Subsidized public transportation; subsidized park- Restricted admission based on license Reduce trips in example, alternate day or no- collection system and-ride fees plate number combustion drive days) vehicles Exempting low-emission vehicles from Higher parking prices in areas with higher air parking charges; offering special parking Parking management Parking infrastructure, collection system pollution spaces only for low-emission vehicles’ park-and-ride; infrastructure mandates Logistical modeling and planning (for example, Freight management Penalties for overweight vehicles Maximum freight weight for vehicles consolidating loading for freight activity) (continued on next page) Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 129 TABLE 3.3 Detailed Description of Policy Options to Reduce Vehicle Emissions (continued) Main subobjective Measure Technology Market-based instrument (MBI) Regulations supporting MBIs Precise monitoring system at source; automatic tax Higher fuel prices by removing fuel subsidies, Increase fuel prices Removing subsidies; introducing taxes collection systems; staff training for enforcement taxing fuel Encourage modal shift Public transportation investment; infrastructure Subsidized prices for public transportation; Special traffic lanes for public (discourage driving of personal investments for low-emission alternatives (such as subsidies or tax credits for companies offering transportation and cycling combustion vehicles) bicycles); campaigns for cycling and walking public transportation tickets to employees Public procurement of low- Minimum standards for public Electric buses; gas-powered buses Additional budgets for municipalities emission vehicles transportation vehicles Access control of all motorized vehicles; detection Traffic mandates; exemptions for low- Reduce demand for Vehicle-restricted areas Penalties for noncompliance (gantry, cameras, and so forth) and collection system emission vehicles trips in combustion Access control for certain vehicles; detection (gantry, Traffic mandates; exemptions for low- vehicles Low emission zones Penalties for noncompliance cameras, and so forth) and collection system emission vehicles Detection (gantry, cameras, and so forth) and Usage fees (corresponding to cleanliness of vehicle Traffic mandates; exemptions for low- Pollution or congestion charges collection system technology) emission vehicles Communication technology to Mandate for allowing home office where encourage home-based work Information technology (Zoom, WebEx, and so forth) Partial acquisition cost coverage for companies possible and telecommuting Information campaigns to Creation of campaigns; distribution of campaigns Subsidized (government-financed) television ads, None encourage low-emission travel through various networks billboards, and so forth Source: Based on World Bank data. Note: LEZ = low emission zone; ppm = parts per million. a. Euro standards for light-duty vehicles are denoted with Arabic numerals (for example, Euro 6), while standards for heavy-duty vehicles are denoted with Roman numerals (for example, Euro VI). 130 Blue Skies, Blue Seas Although these lists provide a comprehensive overview of possible options for the reduction of vehicle emissions, the optimal policy mix is highly dependent on country and city characteristics and must be assessed in detail on a case-by-case basis. Policies to Reduce Emissions from Energy and Industrial Sources Industrial processes and energy generation are among the most impor- tant sources of airborne PM. These industrial processes include emissions from chemical or mechanical processes emitted not only in the manufac- turing of goods (for example, in the cement industry) but also those emis- sions from on-site energy production through coal or oil thermal power plants on the premises of the producing firms. In many Middle East and North Africa cities, these large-scale plants are suspected to be the pri- mary causes of air pollution and GHG emissions—accounting for more than half of CO2 emissions in 2014 (Abbass, Kumar, and El-Gendy 2018). The region’s energy mix is also heavily skewed toward fossil fuels, with more than 95 percent of its energy derived from them (Menichetti et al. 2019), contributing heavily to carbon and air pollutant emissions. Lack of stringent regulation and monitoring systems for industrial emis- sions, low fossil fuel prices, and the high reliance of the region’s economies on fossil fuels represent hurdles to achieving air quality improvements. Contributing to these issues, few countries have set air quality standards in the form of laws or regulations (UNEP 2017). Partly as a result (according to World Bank Enterprise Surveys), the adoption of measures to reduce the emissions of air pollutants and to raise energy efficiency in the private sector is rather low, at least in some of the region’s economies. This section reviews the main options for reducing emissions from energy and industrial sources, including • Mandating and effectively enforcing emission controls through inspec- tion and pollution charges; • Charging and trading emissions; • Raising industrial resource efficiency; • Switching to renewables for energy production; and • Properly pricing fossil fuels. These measures are presented in tables 3.4 and 3.5, which contain addi- tional measures not discussed in the text, because their aim is to present the universe of policy options available. The section also provides exam- ples of successful adoption of selected measures by Middle East and North Africa economies as well as international best practices. Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 131 Looking at the firm perspective confirms that green management and green investment practices are limited among private firms in emerg- ing markets, including the Middle East and North Africa. The most recent World Bank Enterprise Survey data show that economies in the southern and eastern Mediterranean (including Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia, and West Bank and Gaza) have rather low adoption rates of green technology practices. Only around 1 in 10 firms men- tion the environment and climate change in their strategic objectives, and even fewer have a manager responsible for addressing such issues. Although around 1 in 3 firms monitored their energy consumption, less than 1 in 4 adopted some form of energy management, and less than 1 in 5 actually implemented measures to increase their energy efficiency. Similarly, adoption of waste minimization and recycling practices is not widespread among the surveyed firms (about 1 in 4 firms). Although these numbers look very low, other regions such as Europe and Central Asia show similar numbers. Instituting Emissions Controls, Inspections, and Pollution Charges In many economies of the Middle East and North Africa region, indus- trial emissions are a major polluting source but are subject to relatively lax standards and minimal oversight. For more than half of the region’s econ- omies, no regulations for industrial sources were identifiable when the last stocktaking was done (see UNEP 2015 and similar sources). Phasing out the use of inefficient production technologies or machines that do not necessarily emit pollutants themselves but need a high energy input requires a clear legislative framework. However, all of these mandates must be accompanied by credible means of enforcement, including regular (unannounced) inspections and penalty schemes intimidating enough to ensure compliance by both public and private firms. Furthermore, this requires training of the staff performing these inspections as well as a clear codification of relevant violations and their consequences. Internationally recognized certificates for environmental manage- ment systems of industrial sites are comparatively scarce in the Middle East and North Africa. Currently, the legal framework in many of the region’s economies is opaque regarding environmental management systems. One other way to assess the state of environmental manage- ment is to study an economy’s number of ISO 14001 certificates (ISO 2020), which reflect international standards for the systematic identifica- tion and management of environmental threats and are issued to firms that voluntarily adopt measures to mitigate and properly manage such threats. As of December 31, 2019, there are an average of around 300 such certificates per Middle East and North Africa economy, compared 132 Blue Skies, Blue Seas with a global average of around 1,000 certifications per country (exclud- ing China, which alone has over 130,000 such certificates). A notable exception is the United Arab Emirates, with over 1,800 such certificates. Using International Organization for Standardization (ISO) 14001 certificates could be a way of rewarding company efforts by introducing publicly available company ratings that can be combined with product labeling that displays the companies’ performance to the end consumer. Despite some evidence that the broader adoption of such certificates may lower the emission of air pollutants (Potoski and Prakash 2005, 2013), their effects may differ across countries and are dependent on the domestic regulatory framework (Prakash and Potoski 2014; Arimura et al. 2016)—highlighting the need for strong legal requirements set by policy makers. Supporting and incentivizing companies in their transition to newer technologies by subsidizing the retrofit or new fit of their industrial complexes would advance the blueing of the Middle East and North Africa’s skies and seas. Equipping high-polluting facilities with suitable technologies, such as fume scrubbers or exhaust filters (for example, electrostatic precipitators and flue gas desulfurization), is a crucial step for reducing air pollution stemming from these sources.26 Subsidies, credit lines, guarantees, and technical assistance can help facilitate a switch to less-polluting technologies. Positive incentives could include tax rebates or certifications of products, signaling to the consumer the environmental effort made by the respective producer (see box 3.10 for some examples). Setting Industrial Emissions Charges and Introducing Emissions Markets Pricing the emissions of carbon or air pollutants is a cost-effective way of reducing them. It is often the least-cost option to achieve deep cuts in emissions, especially of CO2 (IMF 2021). Another advantage is that gen- erated revenues can be used for increased investments in and subsidies for green infrastructure. Similarly, it is important to put a price on the energy created by burning fossil fuels. This is discussed further below in the subsection on “Properly Pricing Energy.” Taxing emissions. The basic economic theory underlying emissions taxes—that is, making something more expensive to reduce its usage— is straightforward. These taxes are often unpopular at the outset and require careful communications campaigns. Putting a price on emissions can help countries and companies to decarbonize economies including their supply chains, increase air quality by reducing air pollutants, and at the same time increase the social benefits of the economy or city.27 It is a powerful tool to nudge companies to invest in cleaner technologies, Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 133 BOX 3.10 Successful Pollution Abatement Projects in the Middle East and North Africa Egypt and Lebanon, with international sup- have interest rates close to zero. These port, have implemented pollution abate- loans are provided for a period of seven ment projects that support businesses in years with a two-year grace period, and transitioning to cleaner industrial produc- LEPAP also supports companies in the tion. The Egyptian Pollution Abatement preparation of technical specifications and Programme (EPAP), initiated by the the fulfillment of technical requirements Ministry of Environment with support for their projects. from international organizations such as Projects financed by these initiatives have the World Bank, has been in effect since been successfully expanded and scaled up. the early 1990s. It was rolled out in three EPAP has financed over 35 subprojects to phases, with the latest one launching in improve pollution abatement. The program 2015. The project’s main goal is to set up a has an astonishing track record for completed framework that encourages cleaner indus- projects, with projects that received assistance trial production by providing loans to com- leading to significantly reduced emissions. panies for pollution-reducing investments. For example, in the course of the project’s The third phase, EPAP3, includes a bank second phase, air pollutants of financed credit line up to €120 million to finance subprojects were reduced by 91 percent on the pollution abatement projects of public average, with SO2 emissions being reduced and private enterprises; a grant facility (€20 by 84 percent and particulate matter (PM) million) to soften the terms of the granted emission by 94 percent. Similarly, wastewater loans; and a technical assistance program pollution of the financed projects was almost with €6 million to strengthen the capabili- completely eliminated, with average decreases ties of the various stakeholders (AFD, n.d.). in wastewater effluents of 98 percent (World Similarly, the Lebanon Environmental Bank 2015). Pollution Abatement Project (LEPAP)a was For LEPAP, as of September 2019, six set up in 2014 in cooperation with interna- industrial plants have applied for loans, tional organizations such as the World Bank and three of them have already received and the Italian Agency for Development loans worth around US$3 million, with the Cooperation and provides free technical other ones applying for loans amounting assistance to industrial enterprises in the up to US$2 million. Additional financing is form of national and international con- planned to increase the number of projects sultants. Furthermore, LEPAP includes a to 20–25 public and private enterprises financial mechanism that provides conces- and provide them with loans and technical sional loans supported by the Banque Du assistance to address pollution emissions in Liban through commercial banks, which a cost-effective manner. a. For more information, see the LEPAP website: http://lepap.moe.gov.lb/. 134 Blue Skies, Blue Seas adopt more efficient practices, apply end-of-pipe pollution abatement, and conserve energy inputs. The revenues can then be used to advance other development policies such as ones enhancing critical infrastructure or supporting businesses to update their production facilities. An efficient emission taxation scheme requires an effective monitor- ing and administration system as well as stringent enforcement mecha- nisms. This effort requires technological solutions to measure emissions of GHGs and other air pollutants as well as regulatory changes that are necessary for the imposition of the tax in the existing tax framework. Taxes on carbon emissions are the most widely used form of emissions taxation, with carbon taxes present in various European countries (for example, France, Ireland, Spain, and the Nordic countries) as well as in Argentina, Japan, Mexico, South Africa, and a large number of Canadian provinces. Trading emissions. An alternative way of limiting emissions from energy-production-related and industrial sources is the implementa- tion of an emissions trading system (ETS). Such a trading system would allow companies causing more emissions to choose to invest in necessary technology upgrades immediately or postpone them to a more suitable time by buying carbon certificates from other, less-polluting companies. One of the first and largest carbon trading systems is the cap-and-trade program set up by the US state of California (box 3.11). With the introduction of its national ETS, China could overtake the EU as the world’s biggest carbon market; however, the initial version of China’s ETS will cover only coal- and gas-fired power plants. In some countries, several carbon pricing systems coexist. For example, several European countries are part of the EU ETS and have national carbon taxes, and Germany launched an additional national ETS for heating and transportation fuels starting in 2021 leading to price hikes in the latter of around 10 percent. Middle-income countries such as Kazakhstan and Mexico have already implemented or are scheduled to implement an ETS, and Brazil, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Turkey are currently consider- ing doing so and have initiated studies for their specific design (World Bank 2021b). This showcases the potential of such systems at a country or subregional level for the Middle East and North Africa as well. Hence, it is recommended that governments in the region consider implementing ETSs and commence assessments for their feasibility and ideal design. Targeting PM explicitly. Recently, the Indian state of Gujarat launched a pilot program in the industrial city of Surat that, like a tra- ditional ETS, allots a fixed number of permits to plants but specifically targets PM air pollution. It is the world’s first cap-and-trade scheme that does so and, if successful, it is planned to be scaled up to cover all of Gujarat and perhaps other states in India. It also serves as an international Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 135 BOX 3.11 California’s Emissions Trading System (ETS) California’s cap-and-trade system places buy allowances instead. It is also possible a limit on carbon pollution while grant- to “bank” allowances for later use. The ing companies the flexibility to make the price floor for allowances was set at US$10 lowest-cost reductions first. The ETS was per ton in 2012 and has been increased launched in 2013 after California estab- by 5 percent plus inflation annually to lished its landmark climate law in 2006a and keep the market stable in case of demand made reporting of greenhouse gas (GHG) fluctuations. emissions mandatory in January 2009. This The state of California decided to link its reporting step was taken to determine the ETS with the one implemented in Quebec, state’s emissions in 1990, collecting data on Canada—enabling their respective ETSs to actual emissions from historical energy con- trade certificates with each other—because sumption and production data, so as to base they share similarly stringent caps and have the cap that would be introduced on real a closely aligned policy design. Initially emissions instead of projected ones. The covering the emissions of six GHGs by state requires entities that emit more than industrial and electricity sectors, the cap was 10,000 tons of GHG emissions annually to expanded in 2015 to include transportation report their emissions, and those that emit fuels and natural gas, covering around 85 more than 25,000 tons must verify their percent of the state’s GHG emissions since emissions with an independent third party. then. Furthermore, in 2016 California Within the system, allowances to passed legislation to set its 2030 emission- companies (permits that each allow a facility reduction target to be 40 percent lower to emit 1 ton of GHG emissions) are than its 1990 emissions. The program is distributed either for free, based on metrics continuously evaluated and improved at such as output and efficiency, or sold in state- intervals of roughly two years. Notably, in administered auctions. These allowances an adaptation in 2017, California regulators can then be traded on a secondary market, explicitly included a program to further where companies whose GHGs are lower reduce local air pollution. Through this can sell them to ones that want to emit continuous updating of the regulations, more GHGs. This way, a certain company legislators try to maintain regulatory can flexibly decide whether it wants to certainty while providing a dynamic invest in emission-reducing technology or program that adapts to current needs. Source: EDF 2018. a. The Global Warming Solutions Act or Assembly Bill 32. 136 Blue Skies, Blue Seas role model for the implementation of such schemes around the world, including the Middle East and North Africa (BBC News 2019). International experts have endorsed the pilot program and see the potential to cut PM air pollution. Preliminary assessments attest to the program’s effectiveness (Tripathi 2019) and a scientific evaluation in the form of a randomized control trial is being carried out at the time of this writing to rigorously determine its impacts (Greenstone et al. 2019). Raising Energy Efficiency The Middle East and North Africa region’s energy use per unit of eco- nomic output is among the highest worldwide. On average, to produce output worth US$1,000 (2017 US$, purchasing power parity [PPP]), the region used energy equivalent to around 135 kilograms (kg) of oil in 2014 (figure 3.22, panel a). This is exceeded only in Sub-Saharan Africa as well as slightly so in the East Asia and Pacific region. Even more concerning, the Middle East and North Africa was the only region worldwide whose average energy intensity increased in the FIGURE 3.22 Energy Use Per Unit of Output and Growth Rate, by World Region a. Energy use per unit of GDP, 2014a b. Change in energy use,1990–2014b 175 30 150 20 125 10 100 0 75 −10 50 −20 25 −30 0 −40 ific sia an ica ica sia ica c a n c A e fr er A fr Af ri ea fri ca ic ia a a a l b b ac if As eri c si P ra ib A h A A h l A nd nt arC rt h Am uto an rt h ari b an d P h r o r n ou t Am nt ra C sia a Ce o t S a d he d N o r ah d N he ah a a S th e t S n t S si a or d C st A e a n nd t a n N ub - N a st a nd b - a t A an Ea op a as S Ea a S u as pe ur eri c E E le E dle eri c ur o E Am Mi dd d n M i m ti tin A La La Source: Based on the World Development Indicators database. Note: “North America” includes Canada and the United States. PPP = purchasing power parity. a. Panel a represents a region’s average energy use as the kilograms (kg) of oil needed per unit of GDP (US$1,000, 2017 US$ PPP). b. Panel b shows the percentage change in each region’s average energy use per unit of GDP in 2014 relative to its energy use per unit in 1990. Energy use (kg of oil equivalent) per US$1,000 of GDP (2017 US$ PPP) Change in energy use since 1990 (%) Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 137 past three decades. The average energy input to produce its output has risen more than 30 percent higher than in 1990 (figure 3.22, panel b). In contrast, all other regions were able to cut their energy input to produce a given amount of output. Electricity and other energy prices are low in many parts of the Middle East and North Africa, leading to few efforts to efficiently distribute and use energy. Reflecting this negligence, almost 15 percent of the region’s produced electric power in 2014 never reached its destination (figure 3.23). Although this does not directly refer to the inefficient use of energy by industrial complexes themselves, it is a symptom of the same underlying issue: low prices that do not incentivize the economical use of energy or investments to increase energy efficiency. This makes clear that, in addi- tion to the measures that industries should adopt (outlined below), invest- ments in the electrical grid system and other infrastructure are needed to cut the losses of energy from source to destination. Manufacturing firms are increasingly monitoring their energy con- sumption, but the adoption of energy efficiency-enhancing measures FIGURE 3.23 Electric Power Transmission and Distribution Losses, by World Region, 2014 20 15 10 5 0 ific sia ea n ica icar r i a c A As ric a Pa ral b Af e t rib h m th Af nd a en A u n C e C a t a No r h So arat si nd th d No r ah A Ssta e a nda st an b- E p S u ro ica Ea Eu er dlem id tin A M La Source: Based on the World Development Indicators database. Note: “North America” includes Canada and the United States. Share of electricity output lost in transmission and distribution (%) 138 Blue Skies, Blue Seas is lagging. Recent data from the World Bank Enterprise Survey reveals that, on average, almost half of manufacturers in six of the region’s economies—Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia, and West Bank and Gaza—monitor their energy consumption, and around a third adopt some form of energy management. However, less than a quarter had explicit targets for their energy consumption, and less than 20 percent adopted concrete measures to enhance their energy efficiency. In contrast, comparable European countries were faring better.28 The low adoption of measures in some Middle East and North Africa econo- mies results partly from the fact that only around 7 percent of manufac- turing firms were subject to an energy performance standard, although around 22 percent were subject to an energy tax or levy, according to the Enterprise Surveys. On the upside, about 40 percent of manu- facturing firms in the surveyed economies declared that they adopted improvements in the lighting systems in the past three years, and almost 30 percent had improved their heating and cooling equipment. When firms were asked why they are not investing in proper energy management in the form of energy efficiency measures, the main reasons stated were (a) lack of prioritization relative to other forms of investment, and (b) lack of financial resources. Credit constraints have also been shown to be an impediment to the implementation of green manage- ment practices (EBRD 2019). Government regulation, as discussed in detail earlier in this chapter, is important to move the needle on green practice adoption by firms, but so is also raising awareness and customer demand. Larger rates of green practices—larger than those reported here—were found among firms that face customer pressure to act in an environmentally friendly way or that are subject to an energy tax or levy if they do not (EBRD 2019). There is great scope for increased energy efficiency of industries. As mentioned earlier, low energy prices lead to low incentives for industry and private consumers to address inefficiencies in their energy consump- tion, and low prices do not encourage energy conservation (El Khoury 2012). However, increasing energy efficiency potentially represents the most cost-effective measure for reducing GHG emissions and improving air quality. The importance of raising energy efficiency to rein in exces- sive energy consumption has also been recognized by governments in the Middle East and North Africa. Box 3.12 provides examples from Saudi Arabia’s efforts to increase energy efficiency through various programs in both the industrial and residential sectors. Measures for raising energy efficiency include market-based instru- ments. For example, auction systems could incorporate a set price for each unit of energy savings, for which key market actors like utility companies have to propose their projects that generate energy savings Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 139 BOX 3.12 Saudi Arabia’s Efforts to Increase Energy Efficiency In Saudi Arabia, the National Energy regulations to raise energy efficiency in the Efficiency Program (NEEP) was launched three sectors that are its focus: in 2003 and defined eight policy objectives • In the industrial sector, SEEP established to increase energy efficiency (mostly elec- energy intensity targets based on inter- tricity) by 30 percent from 2005 levels by national benchmarks for especially 2030. It targeted mainly the industrial sector energy-intensive industries such as the but included measures to increase energy petrochemical, cement, and steel indus- efficiency in the residential sector as well. tries. Preceding these efforts, it devel- Among them were the introduction of energy oped a baseline assessment of a large audits, energy efficiency labels, and standards number of companies from various sec- and labeling for appliances. Measures to tors and stages of production. Further reduce the demand for energy included the actions included the issuance of stan- installation of high-efficiency air condition- dards for electric motors, with a mini- ers and the introduction of a construction mum standard prescribed since 2015 code to improve insulations of buildings. and an update of the regulation in 2018. NEEP also introduced a program to dissemi- nate energy efficiency information and raise • In the buildings sector, standards for thermal awareness as well as technical and managerial insulation were issued, the Saudi Building training through workshops and seminars. Code has been amended, and feasibility In October 2010, NEEP was transferred studies for moving the energy use inten- to a permanent entity, the Saudi Energy sity to international best practices have Efficiency Center (SEEC), that continued been constructed. Furthermore, several the mission to “reduce energy consumption standards were issued and continuously and improve energy efficiency to achieve the enhanced for different appliances that lowest possible energy intensity” (Fawkes account for a high share of energy use, 2014). It coordinates all activities related to such as air conditioners, water heaters, energy consumption efficiency improvement lighting products, and white goods (for between governmental and nongovernmental example, refrigerators, freezers, and wash- stakeholders and launched the Saudi Energy ing machines). These efforts were supple- Efficiency Program (SEEP) in 2012. In mented by clear labeling schemes. addition to the foci of NEEP on the industrial • In the transportation sector, to improve and the buildings sector, SEEP also included energy efficiency, SEEP issued a fuel measures targeting the transportation sector. economy standard in 2014 for light-duty However, unlike the previous program, vehicles, implementing it in January SEEP’s guiding principles do not include 2016, supplemented by fuel economy price reforms (Arab News 2014). labels. A second phase is being planned. Since its inception, SEEP has partnered It also introduced standards for tire- with foreign governments and international rolling resistance, and regulations for organizations and has introduced various heavy-duty vehicles were assessed. 140 Blue Skies, Blue Seas at a given price. Other possibilities could be to use (a) dynamic elec- tricity prices so that retail prices follow wholesale prices that fluctuate over time and hence can incentivize energy-consumption behavior; or (b) tax-based instruments like rebates or tax credits to promote energy efficiency. Regulatory mechanisms to push energy efficiency can come in the form of mandatory efficiency targets. These can be supplemented by measures like the assignment of a qualified energy manager to companies or groups of companies in a sector, reporting obligations for those companies or regular audits. Carrying out such inspections would require thorough training of staff and a clear communication of mandatory efficiency targets. Furthermore, the implementation of such targets may need a phasing-in period to allow companies, especially SMEs, to adjust to these requirements with investments in appropriate infrastructure. Voluntary initiatives to increase energy efficiency should be sup- ported by providing incentives and knowledge. A range of less-restrictive measures includes the promotion of voluntary goals for energy efficiency or the introduction of an energy savings insurance mechanism that miti- gates risks for SMEs when implementing energy-efficiency measures. These measures may be confronted with less resistance and hence may be easier to implement or support. To provide support for companies that engage in such voluntary actions, governments in the Middle East and North Africa could organize conferences to induce knowledge spill- overs among participants or introduce special certificates for products manufactured in participating plants. Switching to Renewable Energies Currently the energy mix in the Middle East and North Africa region is heavily skewed toward fossil fuel sources, primarily from oil and gas. Gas accounts for 48 percent of electricity generation, oil for 44 percent, coal for 5 percent, and renewables for only 3 percent (Menichetti et al. 2019). Even in Morocco—“a front-runner” in investing in solar energy— renewable energy accounts for only 9 percent of electric power genera- tion. Around 12 percent of manufacturing firms surveyed in the most recent wave of the World Bank Enterprise Surveys declared that they had adopted more climate-friendly energy generation on-site, compared with about 16 percent in the Western Balkans and the Central Europe and Baltic states. Broader adoption of renewables, both produced by dedicated power plants and produced by energy consumers themselves, requires a mix of economic, regulatory, and investment incentives. However, fossil fuel energy subsidies are a major barrier to investment in renewables. Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 141 An approach that combines removal of fossil fuel energy subsidies with investment and initial tariff subsidies could be a viable way to induce a switch in the Middle East and North Africa’s energy mix. Saudi Arabia, for example, has established a regulatory and investment framework in its Vision 2030 document, which was first revealed in 2016 (Rashad 2016) and highlights the development of the Saudi solar energy sector, financed through its US$2 trillion sovereign fund (Zafar 2020b). Support measures to increase energy from renewable sources in the Middle East and North Africa could include tax breaks for both produc- ers and consumers of renewable energy. Or the construction of solar plants, wind parks, or hydro plants could be supported through provision of low-interest loans guaranteed by the government. Similarly, bond issuances that include tax exemptions for the interest repaid to investors can be used to raise the needed investments. The support of supranational organizations can also be crucial—in both financial and knowledge transfer terms—for low- and middle- income countries in the region, as was the case for the Ouarzazate Solar Power Station (also called Noor Power Station) in Morocco. Substantial investments, with the support of the World Bank Group’s International Finance Corporation playing a crucial role, are also under way in Egypt, the first of which is the Benban Solar Park in southern Egypt with a capacity of 1,465 megawatts (MW). Geographically, the Middle East and North Africa is well suited to produce energy from renewable sources such as solar and wind energy. Large parts of the region are highly suitable for large-scale solar projects given their high photovoltaic power potential (map 3.2). With their vast stretches of bare land, the region’s economies are also highly suitable for wind farms, and they have accelerated their efforts to increase the share of renewable sources in their energy mix. Box 3.13 provides some regional examples of economies that have initiated adoption of renewa- bles to meet ambitious goals to increase the share of energy produced from renewable sources. Although renewable energy sources contribute to cleaner air, air pollution can also impair the efficiency of solar energy-generating equipment such as photovoltaic panels. Similar to cloud cover, aerosol emissions affect solar radiation reaching the surface by absorbing and scattering sunlight, thereby decreasing energy yields. Moreover, the accumulation of dust (fine airborne particles) on the surface of panels physically obstructs radiation from reaching the photovoltaic cells, diminishing efficiency. These reductions can be substantial. In China, for example, the potential of photovoltaic panels between 1960 and 2015 was reduced by 11–15 percent on average because of elevated air pol- lution (Sweerts et al. 2019). In especially polluted eastern and northern 142 Blue Skies, Blue Seas MAP 3.2 Photovoltaic Power Potential in the Middle East and North Africa: A Solar Resource Map Long term average of PVOUT, period from 1994 (1999 in the East) to 2018 500 km Daily totals: 3.6 4.0 4.4 4.8 5.2 5.6 KWh/kWp Yearly totals: 1314 1461 1607 1753 1988 2045 Source: Global Solar Atlas 2.0. ©World Bank. Note: kWh = kilowatt-hour; kWp = kilowatts peak (peak power producible by a photovoltaic system or panel); PVOUT = photovoltaic power output. BOX 3.13 Regional Examples of Investment in Renewable Energy Sources Morocco: On the Solar Frontier capacity of 580 megawatts (MW), and Phase I Morocco is pledging to significantly reduce was completed in 2016 when it was connected greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions stemming to the grid, providing 160 MW annually. from energy production and is investing heav- The plant’s construction was supported by a ily in its renewable energy sector to achieve its host of international organizations, including goal of having 52 percent of installed electric- the World Bank, which provided a US$400 ity generation capacity come from renewable million loan. Phases II and III aim to increase sources by 2030 (Timmerberg et al. 2019). the production capacity substantially and were To this end, several wind farms and solar commissioned in 2018 and 2019, respectively. plants were constructed and are planned to be Furthermore, under the “Integrated Wind built and opened in Morocco. Energy Project,” five wind farms around the The Noor-Ouarzazate complex is currently country, with a production capacity of 850 the world’s largest concentrated solar power MW, are under construction or planned to be (CSP) plant, with an energy production built in the coming years. (continued) Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 143 BOX 3.13 Regional Examples of Investment in Renewable Energy Sources (Continued) Tunisia: A Regional Pioneer in Renewable provide electricity to approximately 160,000 Energy Policies households. It comprises 3.2 million solar Tunisia is considered a pioneer for renewable panels and has a total capacity of over 2 giga- energy policies in the region. In 1995, tax watts (GW) (Redondo 2020). exemptions for renewable energy equipment In Saudi Arabia, the Dumat Al Jandal imports were introduced with Decree 95/744, wind farm, set to generate 400 MW of elec- and in 2005 investment subsidies for renew- tricity, will be the biggest wind farm in the able energy technologies were introduced. Middle East and will commence operations A large share of the country’s solar gen- in 2022. It will power up to 77,000 house- eration was installed under the umbrella of holds and displace almost 1 million tons of the Tunisian Solar Programme (PROSOL), CO2 (REVE 2020). which was originally formulated in 2005. In In Quatar, the government has pledged 2009, the government relaunched PROSOL, to increase its total capacity of renewables renamed it the Tunisia Solar Plan (TSP), considerably in the coming years. One step and announced that the TSP would target to reach this goal is the construction of the a renewable energy penetration rate of 30 Al Kharsaah Solar Power Plant, for which percent by 2030 with an associated law intro- financial closure was reached in July 2020. duced in 2015 (OBG 2016). In 2016, a pro- Commencement is expected to start in 2022, gram was introduced to develop 1,000 MW and its capacity of 800 MW has the poten- subsequently in further projects (Enel Green tial to account for around 10 percent of Power 2017). the country’s peak electricity demand. Over its full life cycle, the project will save up to The GCC States: Ambitious Plans 26 million tons of CO2 and will contribute to The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Qatar’s commitment to host a carbon-neutral countries have also recognized the potential football world championship in 2022 (Verma for renewable energy production because of 2020). Smaller projects in GCC countries their geographical characteristics, and most include ones in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman. have put forward ambitious plans to increase All governments in the region have their share of energy produced from renew- committed to increase the share of energy able sources. supplied from renewable sources, with Saudi In the United Arab Emirates, plans are Arabia being the most ambitious one by being finalized to build the Al Dhafra solar planning to meet an impressive 50 percent photovoltaic power project, which, once of its energy demand from such sources fully operational, will be one of the world’s in 2030. Both Oman and the United Arab largest solar power plants and will replace Emirates are targeting 30 percent coverage the Noor Abu Dhabi solar power project as by renewables by 2030, while Qatar is the largest one in the United Arab Emirates. committed to generate 20 percent of its It will offset around 2.4 million tons of energy from solar power. Kuwait wants to c arbon dioxide (CO ) (equivalent to remov- reach a share of 15 percent in 2030, and 2 ing around 470,000 cars from the roads) and Bahrain aims for 15 percent in 2035. 144 Blue Skies, Blue Seas China, the efficiency losses are even larger, with annual average reduc- tions of 20–25 percent (Li et al. 2017). Early evidence for reduced effi- ciency of photovoltaic panels due to air pollution has also been found for the Islamic Republic of Iran, with yields reduced by up to 60 percent on highly polluted days (Asl-Soleimani, Farhangi, and Zabihi 2001). These findings imply that an improvement of air quality would increase the efficiency of solar electricity generation and hence its deployment, which in turn would further reduce air pollutant emissions, generating positive feedback effects (Li et al. 2017). To increase the amount of energy derived from renewable resources and penetrate the Middle East and North Africa’s energy mix, further investments in plants and supporting infrastructure are necessary. Although some of the region’s economies are making progress in extract- ing energy from renewable sources, the penetration of the energy mix with renewables is still in the beginning stage for most of them. Increasing their shares of renewable energy will require continued investments, especially in countries that have so far rather neglected this area of d evelopment, such as the Islamic Republic of Iran, which produces less than 1 percent of its electricity from renewable sources (CMS 2017). Furthermore, the expansion of alternative energy sources may require upgrades of the grid system to be suitable for renewable genera- tors. Given their high potential for energy production from renewable resources, economies in the Middle East and North Africa could profit immensely from investing in this area. This is also true from the per- spective of job creation because renewable energy projects were found to deliver three times more jobs per dollar than comparable ones in the fossil fuels sector (Garrett-Peltier 2018). Increasing the share of renewables in the region’s energy mix is also an important prerequisite for switching to electric vehicles. As discussed earlier, the electrification of transportation, both private and public, can be an important contributor to reducing air pollution in the region. For this to be true, though, the electricity that vehicles run on has to be derived from (relatively) clean sources. This in turn requires invest- ments in the renewable energy system, both at the point of creation and the point of distribution, through grid storage solutions and charging stations. Hence, the potential for positive effects of a modal switch to the broader adoption of electric vehicles is heavily intertwined with the expansion of renewable energies and an orientation of the energy mix toward them. To engage in those activities of renewable energy extraction best suited for each economy, a thorough analysis of possibilities must be conducted. As shown above, basically the entire region has positive prospects for the use of solar energy. Most of its economies are also Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 145 suitable for the large-scale use of wind energy for electricity production. Hydropower, however, is a sector that has only limited potential for increasing energy production from this source. Suitable rivers (such as the Nile) are already heavily used in this respect. Furthermore, intensify- ing further dam building can present serious drawbacks regarding sedi- ment blockage, leading to or exacerbating coastal erosion of coastlines downstream (as discussed in chapter 5). Properly Pricing Energy Derived from Fossil Fuels Electricity in the Middle East and North Africa is generated primarily from fossil fuel sources. As noted earlier, the region’s energy mix is heav- ily skewed toward fossil fuels, with more than 95 percent of its electricity derived from these sources (Menichetti et al. 2019). The country with the largest share of its energy from renewables, Morocco, derives less than 10 percent of its energy from renewable sources. The region’s reliance on fossil fuels is primarily due to institutional factors, such as the subsidization of energy production from fossil fuels (El-Katiri 2014; Poudineh, Sen, and Fattouh 2018). To induce a switch to a more sustainable energy mix, investing in the development of renew- able energies as well as adapting the institutional framework are impera- tive. Regulatory bodies must shift their focus away from supporting fossil fuels to address air pollution (Abbass, Kumar, and El-Gendy 2018). Decreasing subsidies on electricity and energy more generally has been shown to improve air quality. Decreasing subsidies for electricity would increase the price of electricity, which has been shown to signifi- cantly reduce air pollution. For example, regarding pollutant emissions from industrial plants in Anhui, China, it has been found that a 1 percent increase in electricity prices leads to decreases of 1–5.8 percent in SO2 and PM emissions concentrations for the metals and cement production sectors (Tan-Soo et al. 2019). Hence, electricity prices could be an effec- tive policy tool for managing air pollution, which is highly relevant for the Middle East and North Africa’s economies, given their unsustainable energy mix. Reducing or removing subsidies for oil and gas for electricity produc- tion is an important step to be taken by the region’s economies. Similar to the importance of fuel subsidy removal in transportation, removal of subsidies is crucial in the case of electricity production. Current regional pricing mechanisms make it hard to draw sensible cost comparisons between these energy sources, and they disadvantage the renewable energy sector. Hence, structural reforms of the regional energy market and pricing mechanisms are necessary to present renewable energy as a cost-c ompetitive alternative to conventionally used fossil fuels (El-Katiri 2014). 146 Blue Skies, Blue Seas Once the subsidies are removed, a next step would be to start putting a price on carbon, pollution, or both. Additional carbon pricing or trad- ing schemes in the energy-producing sector are emerging around the world. However, the Middle East and North Africa is the only region worldwide where no country has a carbon tax, or a related emissions tax, or has implemented a trading mechanism for carbon emissions (World Bank 2021b). Reducing Energy and Industrial Emissions: The Full Policy Spectrum As for vehicle emissions, a broad range of measures can be taken to decrease air pollution from industrial sources and during the generation of energy. Tables 3.4 and 3.5 summarize these measures. The individual measures were assessed in terms of their expected timeline for implemen- tation, financial costs, and expected effectiveness. Policies to Reduce Emissions from Agricultural and Municipal Waste Burning This section reviews the main options for reducing emissions from the burning of agricultural and municipal waste, including regulatory reform, incentive programs, awareness raising, and improving SWM. Many Middle East and North Africa economies still practice open waste burning, in the form of both municipal waste and agricultural waste burn- ing. The burning of municipal waste significantly increases air pollution to hazardous levels (Wiedinmyer, Yokelson, and Gullett 2014) and contrib- utes to around 270,000 premature deaths worldwide (Kodros et al. 2016). TABLE 3.4 Overview of Policy Options to Reduce Emissions from Industry and Energy Production Timeline for Main subobjective Measures implementation Financial cost Effectiveness Emission control (end-of-pipe technology) medium medium high Energy efficiency medium high high Taxes on emissions; establishment of emission short medium medium Reduce industrial and markets energy emissions Inspections and pollution charges medium low high Remove fossil fuel subsidies short high high Switch from coal, oil, and gas to renewables long medium high Encourage consumers to purchase cleaner energy medium low medium Source: Based on World Bank data. Note: The classifications of the qualifiers—timeline (short, medium, long); cost (low, medium, high); and effectiveness (low, medium, high)— are based on expansive literature reviews and the expert judgment of the report-writing team. (A full list of surveyed literature is available on request.) Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 147 TABLE 3.5 Detailed Description of Policy Options to Reduce Emissions from Industry and Energy Production Main subobjective Measure Technology Market-based instrument (MBI) Regulations supporting MBIs Fume scrubbers and exhaust filters such as Emission control (end-of- Maximum pollution levels; ban on outdated electrostatic precipitators and flue gas Subsidies for upgrading technology pipe technology) technologies desulfurization Replacing and upgrading outdated machines Subsidies for technology upgrades; lower Energy efficiency Ban on low-efficiency technologies or parts running costs Precise monitoring system at source; Income for cleaner industrial companies Tax emissions; establish automatic tax collection systems; emission (through trading); income for government Carbon or GHG taxes emission markets trading system through incurred fees Upgrades of scrubbers, filters, waste Inspections and pollution Rewards (tax breaks and so forth) for eco-friendly Mandated (unannounced) inspections per year; management systems, staff training for charges behavior; penalties for overpollution mandated maximum pollution levels inspections Remove fossil fuel Provision of alternative energy sources; Reduce industrial and Savings for government; subsidies for switching Remove subsidies subsidies retrofitting of existing infrastructure energy emissions Construction of solar and wind parks, hydro Switch from coal, oil, and Government subsidies for RE technologies; feed- Prescribing minimum share of RE for “green” plants; upgrades in grid system; vocational gas to renewables in bonuses; surcharges on energy from coal energy badges training for laid-off employees Encourage consumers to Allow consumers to select their source of Subsidies for using cleaner energy sources Ban on advertisement for “dirty” energy sources purchase cleaner energy energy Construction of solar and wind parks, hydro Switch from coal, oil, and Government subsidies for RE technologies; feed- Prescribing minimum share of RE energy for plants, upgrades in grid system, vocational gas to renewables in bonuses; surcharges on energy from coal “green” energy badges training for laid-off employees Encourage consumers to Subsidies for using cleaner energy sources; Ban on advertising for “dirty” energy sources; purchase cleaner energy; Allow consumers to select their source of subsidies for energy switching; savings for redirect subsidies—for example, to RE, taxes on remove fossil fuel energy energy upgrades to other energy sources government fossil fuels subsidies Source: Based on World Bank data. Note: GHG = greenhouse gas; RE = renewable energy. 148 Blue Skies, Blue Seas Beirut’s residential areas that experienced frequent waste burning epi- sodes in their vicinity experienced severe increases in PM concentrations (Baalbaki et al. 2016). Translating these effects into health effects, the authors estimate that the short-term cancer risk on days when waste was burned increased twentyfold. Half the region’s economies burn more than the world average on a per capita basis (figure 3.24). Tackling the issue of municipal waste burning consists of setting up strict enforcement mechanisms and providing the means to properly dispose of waste. However, simply banning the practice combined with penalties for noncompliance may not be effective if the compliance and enforcement strategies are not prepared and effectively executed. This requires rigorous staff training and investment in infrastructure to enable authorities to effectively enforce those bans. It also requires information campaigns to inform residents about the adverse effects of their behavior. Investing in SWM and adopting the principles of a circular economy are crucial to managing municipal waste burning. Presenting residents with a viable alternative to burning their waste crucially includes a strengthening of waste management services, which are still poorly developed in many economies of the Middle East and North Africa.29 Hence, investment in proper waste management systems is imperative. The issue of weak SWM also relates to marine-plastic debris, where FIGURE 3.24 Municipal Waste Burned Per Capita in the Middle East and North Africa, by Economy, 2010 400 300 200 100 0 ria ain ut i p. p. aq an ait on ya co an tar s . ge r o Re Re r ia ic ia e a p l h b I di c or uw an Li b c a ab l s z a ro m Q r u b ni t au ra G , R e A B Dj rab mi J K b O A p Le Mo di Re T Em i nd en , A a a m yp t n, Isl au ab rabS Ar A an k Ye Eg Ira B an d t yri nit e We s S U Source: Based on Wiedinmyer, Yokelson, and Gullett 2014. Note: The orange line denotes world average. kg = kilogram. Waste burned per capita (kg/year) Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 149 inadequately disposed waste is one of the main culprits that lead to large flows of plastic entering the sea. Strengthening these systems and push- ing for the adoption of circular economy principles therefore have the potential to address the adverse effects of poor waste management across issues. The inadequacy of the SWM system, reasons for this inadequacy, and propositions for how to resolve this issue are presented in more detail in chapter 4, where the principles of a circular economy are also illustrated. This concept is important to reduce the amount of waste that arises in the first place, which has ramifications for the amount of waste that is burned and pollutes the region’s air. The burning of agricultural waste is prevalent in some of the region’s economies and contributes to poor air quality. Burning of (agricultural) waste, mostly in the form of crop residues, organic household waste, and the like, has always been a common practice in rural areas in Lebanon (Baalbaki et al. 2016). Every ton of rice straw burned produces emissions of 3 kg of PM; 60 kg of CO; 1,460 kg of CO2; 199 kg of dust; and 2 kg of SO2 (Rosmiza et al. 2014)—all of which can lead to various respiratory diseases and cancer. An important regional example is the “black cloud” season in autumn, when the burning of rice straws increased air pollution significantly in Cairo (Aboel Fetouh et al. 2013). Emissions due to burning of crop residues are high in certain econo- mies of the Middle East and North Africa, indicating the prevalence of this practice there (figure 3.25). The Islamic Republic of Iran and coun- tries in North Africa show the highest emissions, in terms of tons of CO2 per 100,000 people, stemming from the burning of crop residues, followed by Syria and Iraq. Countries in the GCC generally have lower emissions. Air pollution due to agriculture is a localized phenomenon; consequently, the burden associated with it is not spread out evenly across a country. Air pollution reduces agricultural yields and in the process threatens an important source of income for low-income households. The adverse effects of rising temperatures caused by climate change on agricultural yields has been extensively investigated and validated by a host of scien- tific studies. However, air pollutants were also found to be detrimental to the productivity of farm plots by decreasing radiation and by changing temperature and precipitation patterns. Emissions of black carbon (a component of PM) and ozone reduced wheat yields by around 36 percent in India from 1980 to 2010 relative to a situation absent of climate and air pollutant emission trends (Burney and Ramanathan 2014). The overwhelming fraction of losses were due to air pollutants rather than climate pollutants. Similarly, in China, elevated PM2.5 concentrations had a significant adverse effect on average yields of wheat and corn from 2001 to 2010 (Zhou, Chen, and Tian 2018). Addressing regional and local air pollution could have a more imme- diate positive effect on agricultural yields than the abatement of climate 150 Blue Skies, Blue Seas FIGURE 3.25 Emissions (tCO2e) from Crop Burning in the Middle East and North Africa, by Economy, 2018 400 300 200 100 0 riae ep . . R Re p Ira q an ait on ya lta co an tar ia ic ia es zad b a c p . lg b c or uw a n Li M ro aOm Q ra b l s i J K b o A pu b ni rat a Re A u ira m e i Re T Em nd G n, , A sla L M ud a e pt , I Sa ra b rab nk Ye m Eg y n a Ira n A d A B ria ite es t Sy Un W Source: Based on FAOSTAT database, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, https://www.fao.org/faostat/. Note: tCO2e = tons of carbon dioxide equivalent. pollutants, where adverse effects but also gains materialize with a certain delay. Thus, such an approach could also counter some of the expected future yield losses resulting from climate change caused by the emission of climate pollutants (Burney and Ramanathan 2014). The burning of agricultural waste in the Middle East and North Africa has to be controlled, with incentives and awareness programs for farmers being important tools. For rural areas in in the region, with their often-low population density and hence large unpopulated areas, effectively enforcing bans on agricultural waste burning can be burden- some. Bans on burning need to be complemented with incentives offer- ing farmers alternative uses of their agricultural waste. Potential uses include animal food or fertilizer (with appropriate market structures) and biomass energy. Collection centers would facilitate disposal for farmers while also providing them with an additional source of income. Information campaigns are also important to raise awareness among farmers about the adverse effects of crop-residue burning and the alternative options open to them. Egypt successfully implemented such measures, which helped reduce the “black cloud” phenomenon observed in the Greater Cairo region (box 3.14). Another option is “zero-tillage agriculture,” which consists of plowing residues back into the soil, thereby increasing organic matter and enriching the soil (see box 3.15 for the Happy Seeder as an example). Emissions per 100,000 people (tCO2e) Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 151 BOX 3.14 Reducing the “Black Cloud” Phenomenon in Greater Cairo In Egypt, rice is one of the most cultivated In an initial attempt to combat the crops, mainly cultivated in the northeastern uncontrolled burning of rice straw and other part of the country, primarily in the gover- crop residues, the Egyptian Environmental norates of Dakahlyia, Kafr El-Sheick, and Affairs Agency imposed a fine on waste Shakyia (El-Dewany, Awad, and Zaghloul burning ranging from LE 5,000 to LE 2018). Since only around 20 percent of the 100,000 in 2015. Accompanying these crop residues resulting from these cultivation measures, however, authorities also efforts have been used for further processing, incentivized traders to buy the straw from the remainder was often left on the fields and farmers, paying them LE 50 (around later burned, contributing heavily to air pollu- US$3) per ton (Egypt Today 2019). Private tion. This seasonal phenomenon of increased companies then dry and bale the rice straw, emissions after the harvesting season (typi- subsequently to be used for purposes such cally in October and November) is called the as animal fodder, organic fertilizers, and “black cloud” and has been of great concern also more unusual purposes such as in the to policy makers in Egypt and specifically furniture, cement, or brick industries. These in Cairo (El-Dewany, Awad, and Zaghloul companies receive a subsidy of LE 90 for 2018; Hanafi et al. 2012). To give a sense of each ton of rice straw that they process the magnitude of residue burning, according (El Dahan 2011). As of November 2020, to observations by the National Aeronautics the ministry had established 731 centers for and Space Administration (NASA), at least collecting rice straw in six governorates, and 946 fires to burn leftover straw were recorded more than 2 million tons of rice straw had in Egypt’s river Delta in 2014 (NASA 2014). been collected. The impact of this practice on seasonal Furthermore, the ministry reported that air quality in Greater Cairo was mentioned 1,827 seminars have been held to raise earlier and illustrated in figure 3.15, farmers’ awareness about the dangers of which shows the sources of PM2.5 (PM2.5 = burning crop residues as well as to promote particulate matter of 2.5 microns or less in ideas about turning the residues into income- diameter) in the Greater Cairo region for generating products (Egypt Today 2020). In summer and fall 2010. The contribution of addition, new projects have been planned particulate matter (PM) from open burning to use the rice straw for the production of of waste in autumn is considerably higher medium-density fiberboard. The projects than in summer. This results mostly from the are financed by Egyptian capital from the burning of agricultural waste, which typically oil sector and are seen as effective solutions takes place in October and November of each to support the efforts made to transform rice year. Hence, agricultural burning can lead to straw from an environmental challenge into severe, seasonal burdens on air quality. an economic opportunity. (continued) 152 Blue Skies, Blue Seas BOX 3.14 Reducing the “Black Cloud” Phenomenon in Greater Cairo (Continued) The potential of such efforts to from the burning of agricultural waste reduce air pollution can be anticipated in October and November, particularly from figure B3.14.1, which shows PM10 rice straw. However, starting with 2015, (PM10 = particulate matter of 10 microns or this hump shape in autumn is much less less in diameter) concentrations in Greater pronounced, indicating significant decreases Cairo computed as five-month moving in the contribution of agricultural fires averages from 2010 to 2016. In 2010 to to PM air pollution. This exemplifies the 2014, there are clear seasonal patterns impact that well-organized reform programs in air pollution. Beginning with fall each could have on improving air quality by year, there are substantial increases in the positively incentivizing the alternative use concentration of PM10, stemming mostly of crop residues. FIGURE B3.14.1 PM10 Concentrations (Five-Month Moving Average) in Greater Cairo, Egypt, 2010–16 400 350 300 29% 250 200 150 100 50 0 -10 -10 -10 -10 -11 -11 -11 -11 -12 -12 -12 -12 -13 -13 -13 -13 -14 -14 -14 14 -15 -15 -15 5 6 6 6 6 an pr lJu ct an pr l l Ju ct an pr Ju ct an pr l 1 1 1 1 1 Ju ct an pr l t- n r l t- n- r- l- t-J A O J A O J A O J A O J A Ju u c u cOc Ja Ap J O Ja Ap J O Qaha Abu Za'abal Shobra El-Kheimah Madinet Nasr Qolaly Qasr El-Aini Misr El-Gedidah Abbaseyah Madinet Nasr New Cairo El-Salam October 6 Mohandesseen Giza Square Maadi Ma'assarah Badrasheen Tebbin Damietta Mansourah Kafr El-Zayat Mahallah El-Kobra Average Source: Heger, Zens, and Meisner 2019. Note: PM10 = particulate matter measuring 10 microns or less in diameter; µg/m 3 = micrograms per cubic meter of air. PM10 concentrations (µg/m 3) Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 153 Especially for smaller farms, the investment costs of these technolo- gies may be prohibitive. Municipalities could therefore procure them and rent them to farmers at a subsidized price or provide them without charge, as was done in India (DA&FW 2018). In Morocco, the World Bank supported a project, the “Plan Maroc Vert,” which introduced such technologies in a bid to increase efficiency and reduce burning in the agriculture sector (World Bank 2014). Raising Awareness Raising awareness about air pollution and the damage it does is important and increases the demand for cleaner air. To effectively tackle the BOX 3.15 Reusing Crop Residues as Fertilizer with the Happy Seeder The Happy Seeder is an agricultural device from slightly higher yields and lower input that cuts crop residues, sows seeds into the costs for land preparation (Shyamsundar soil, and deposits the sown crop residues et al. 2019). This investigation shows over the area with the sown seeds as a the potential to gain air quality while natural fertilizer. By recycling crop resi- simultaneously enhancing economic profits dues in this way, farmers have less incen- for farmers using innovative technologies tive to burn them, and stubble burning is like the Happy Seeder, and one of the reduced. authors stresses the potential for scaling up The environmental and economic effects the adoption of such programs (CIMMYT of a range of in situ management practices 2019). were assessed in India, and the Happy The Indian government has substantially Seeder was associated with the largest increased subsidies for the in situ residue potential of reducing air pollution caused management (DA&FW 2018) and provides by burning stubbles. Use of the Happy needed tools such as the Happy Seeder at Seeder instead of burning would reduce low costs to farmers in an attempt to combat greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by more agricultural fires at the end of the harvesting than 78 percent. This would significantly season. With the scheme, which involves reduce agriculture’s contribution to overall subsidies amounting to US$75 million, GHG emissions in India and lower social farms making up a total area of around 0.8 costs in terms of particulate air pollution million hectares have been able to use the (Shyamsundar et al. 2019). Happy Seeder technology in northwestern Systems using technology like the Happy states of India. Scaling up the figures, it Seeder can improve profits by 10–20 is estimated that direct farmer benefits percent compared with farming practices amounted to US$131 million within one involving burning. The higher profits stem year. 154 Blue Skies, Blue Seas problem of air pollution regarding its adverse effects on human life, it is imperative to raise residents’ knowledge and awareness. Although most of the measures are based on the premise that governments want to tackle the issue of air pollution, it is also crucial to nurture the general popula- tion’s demand for such interventions. Furthermore, the dissemination of such information gives residents a better understanding of why some measures to curb air pollution are taken. This lends more legitimacy and credibility to the governments’ actions while simultaneously giving resi- dents a way of monitoring the progress and the means to have some kind of checks and balances over government actions in this respect. Properly informing residents about the current state of the air is an important step to take, but it necessitates the expansion of existing ground monitoring systems. To raise awareness about air pollution and its adverse effects, regular (day-to-day or real-time) monitoring of air pollutants and dissemination of this information to the public is an important precondition. As shown in the previous section, Middle East and North Africa economies often lack the appropriate infrastructure, in the form of ground monitoring stations. Monitoring stations to measure PM2.5 concentrations are especially scarce in the region, hampering the dissemination of information about the most harmful pollutant not only to the public but also to researchers who conduct scientific studies based upon this information. The region’s economies have been starting initiatives to raise aware- ness about environmental issues in general as well as about air pollution in particular. Awareness on air pollution, its sources, and impacts has been considered low in the region. For example, through the subsidiza- tion of energy, raising energy efficiency has been perceived as rather unimportant by the general population given the low prices (El Khoury 2012). However, some countries in the Middle East and North Africa have initiated several campaigns to raise awareness about the various sources of air pollution (box 3.16). Raising awareness about polluted air necessitates well-planned com- munication strategies, which can help build a broad base of support for abatement policies. To reach the general population with information about air pollution, it is crucial to broadly disseminate information about current trends in air quality as well as the potential effects of low quality; this information should be clear and easily understood. This can come in various forms such as introducing a traffic light system that indicates varying degrees of air pollution, as is done in Abu Dhabi (discussed earlier in box 3.2). To reach a broad base of residents effectively, infor- mation should also be spread via different channels (for example, news- papers, billboards, TV, radio, and social media) together with material Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 155 BOX 3.16 Public Awareness Programs on Air Pollution in the Middle East and North Africa Egypt Morocco During its project to tackle the black-cloud In Morocco, the Qualit’Air program of phenomenon caused by burning of crop the Fondation Mohammed VI pour la residues in the Greater Cairo region (dis- Protection de L’Environment launched its cussed in box 3.14), Egypt has recognized first driver-awareness campaigns in 2005 that raising awareness about the problem to highlight the air pollution caused by is crucial. The responsible authorities have vehicles. It has since launched numer- held more than 1,800 seminars to inform ous initiatives in cooperation with private farmers about the adverse effects associated companies to educate drivers about global with the practice of agricultural waste burn- warming and air pollution in a bid to ing and how crop residues can be turned reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) emis- into products generating additional income sions through the development of volun- for them (Egypt Today 2020). A recently tary carbon-offsetting programs. In 2015, approved US$200 million World Bank pro- the foundation designed a platform to raise ject includes awareness campaigns to better awareness among children about air pollu- inform the public about the links between air tion and global warming and also electrified pollution and related diseases. This is seen as rural schools with clean energy through the crucial to reach a broader audience and maxi- installation of solar panels (FM6E 2016). mize the impact of related measures. Bahrain Islamic Republic of Iran In 2019, “Beating Air Pollution” was In Tehran, the Islamic Republic of Iran, the theme of the United Nations World authorities report daily measures of air Environment Day. The “Mask Challenge” quality for various locations in the city and that aimed to promote awareness about air disseminate them via different channels, pollution has been endorsed by large parts including billboards, mobile phone apps, of the population in Bahrain. Companies and websitesa as well as through social media such as Aluminum Bahrain have publicly platforms (Heger and Sarraf 2018). The announced their support for efforts to tackle reports provide information on concentra- air pollution and protect the environment. tions of PM2.5, NO2, and SO2 on an hourly The Indian embassy in Bahrain also organ- basis, along with a forecast for the next ized a cycling event with the theme “Fight three days and educational information to Air Pollution” in cooperation with the increase awareness of the definitions of air United Nations Environment Programme quality. (UNEP 2019). (continued) 156 Blue Skies, Blue Seas BOX 3.16 Public Awareness Programs on Air Pollution in the Middle East and North Africa (Continued) United Arab Emirates of cleaner fuels, and greater use of public Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates has transportation or carpooling). developed a color-coded air quality index Policies to reduce energy use include for public communications, together with the reduction of fuel subsidies and guidelines targeted to particular segments encouragement of switching to cleaner of the community that might be vulnerable vehicles, new transportation and industry when pollution rises above certain levels.b It technologies, public awareness campaigns, also provides advice on how to contribute and research that includes collaboration to improving air quality, mostly through between the Environmental Agency Abu careful use of energy at home (including use Dhabi (EAD), Health Authority – Abu of air conditioning) and with transporta- Dhabi (HAAD), academia, and the private tion (including vehicle maintenance, use sector (Mohamed 2017). a. For example, see the “Tehran Air Pollution: Real-Time Air Quality Index (AQI),” World Air Qual- ity Index Project website: https://aqicn.org/city/tehran/. b. For more information, see the Environment Agency – Abu Dhabi (EAD) Air Quality Monitoring System platform: https://www.adairquality.ae/#LiveData. that provides guidance for how individual actions can help reduce air pollution. Furthermore, clear communication campaigns can help f oster a broad base of public support for some of the measures undertaken by the government to curb air pollution, reducing backlash against policies that would otherwise be met with discontent. Awareness programs should identify and explain the various sources of air pollution and the actions an individual can take to combat it. As elaborated in the previous section, air pollutants can stem from differ- ent sources, and the general population often lacks knowledge about them. Moreover, even when the public has a sense of where the pollu- tion is coming from, there may be little awareness about what actions an individual can take. Disseminating information about how such individual actions can contribute to increasing air quality is important to give people the sense that each one of them can be part of the solu- tion. Such individual actions include the switch from a personal vehicle to nonmotorized option or public transportation, lowering energy con- sumption (which in the Middle East and North Africa is mainly derived from fossil fuels) or consumption of goods that are less energy-intensive. Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 157 Furthermore, the proper insulation of houses and installation of appli- ances such as air conditioners with higher efficiency levels would lead to lower energy consumption and leakage in the residential sector, an important point because air conditioning accounts for a large share of consumed energy.30 Proper environmental education early on is an important factor in increasing residents’ engagement with the issues of environmental deg- radation and air pollution. The integration of environmental issues in the agenda of schools, universities, and other community initiatives in the education sector is important to increase knowledge about environ- mental issues. This raises awareness for the adverse effects that individual actions also can have on the environment in general and air pollution in particular. There has been progress in integrating the environmental agenda in university curricula in the Arab world (Saab, Badran, and Sadik 2019). However, school curricula, which have the potential to reach a much broader audience, are often outdated, neglecting the effect of cli- mate change. Educating residents about the dangers posed by air pollu- tion and the possible ways to avoid it, can be crucial to effectively address this problem in an inclusive manner. To raise public awareness about air pollution and its impacts, more initiatives are necessary. Recent efforts by several cities and economies in the Middle East and North Africa are a step in the right direction (box 3.16); however, they should be reinforced to expose air pollution as the threat that it is to the health of the region’s residents. Making people aware of the negative effects of air pollution and how they themselves can contribute to the mitigation of it is important to achieve a broad mobiliza- tion and nudge people to change their behavior. As already mentioned, the possibilities to change behavioral patterns is an option to reduce air pollution, cutting across the different sectors and activities that are sources for the degradation of air quality. Governments in the Middle East and North Africa could support initiatives in this area by providing financial resources for them to garner supporters and attention. Increasing Energy Efficiency in the Residential Sector The built environment accounts for a substantial share of energy use in the region’s economies. In Egypt, the residential sector accounts for 18 percent of energy consumption and 51 percent of electricity consump- tion, primarily in lighting and cooling. In Saudi Arabia, cooling accounts for 70 percent of residential electricity consumption, representing around 40 percent of total annual electricity consumption (El Khoury 2012). The greater use of more efficient cooling and mechanical systems, better insu- lation of buildings, and installation of light-emitting diode (LED) 158 Blue Skies, Blue Seas lightbulbs instead of traditional ones can have a large cumulative effect on energy consumption. Hence, improving energy efficiency in buildings can play an important role in reducing urban air pollution as well as in reducing energy costs for households. There is scope for increased energy efficiency, but low energy prices do not provide incentives for energy savings. Traditionally, energy sub- sidies have formed part of the “social contract” in the GCC countries as well as in energy-importing Middle East and North Africa economies, even though better-off residents generally benefited the most. Successful change has been politically challenging and requires careful commu- nications campaigns and targeted social protection measures (Coady, Flamini, and Sears 2015). The reduction in global oil prices in 2014 provided an opportunity for subsidy reduction in many of the region’s economies (Krane and Monaldi 2017). A recent study estimated the potential for increasing energy effi- ciency to be an average of 20 percent of primary energy supply in the region’s economies by 2025 (World Bank 2016), with Saudi Arabia alone accounting for over one-third of the potential. There is scope for energy savings in the transportation sector through improved, lower-carbon-emitting public transportation systems and traffic manage- ment. All of these improvements will help to improve urban air quality. Middle East and North Africa economies have recognized this potential and have taken measures to increase energy efficiency in the residential sector. The importance of the residential sector in energy consumption and its inefficiency is being recognized by an increasing number of the region’s governments, and some economies are now mak- ing progress toward improving building codes and emissions standards for home appliances to increase energy efficiency in the residential sector (World Bank 2016). Some countries have combined reforms with pro- grams to improve services, as in the case of Egypt, which has supported a large-scale program to help households switch from using liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) to grid-connected natural gas.31 Morocco pushed for higher efficiency standards as well as ther- mal efficiency regulations for buildings through its 2014 adopted Réglementation Thermique de Construction (RTCM). Although the regulation is only partially applied, extending its scope and application is the subject of major efforts. Because of its commitment to raising energy efficiency, Morocco received funding totaling €20 million from a pro- gram financed by European governments to support the integration of energy-efficiency measures into 12,000 homes during 2021 (Econostrum 2020). Support programs to raise efficiency both at the building stage of Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 159 new dwellings and through retrofitting of existing ones is an important precursor that could also form part of COVID-19 recovery strategies. Compared with Morocco’s efforts, the reforms to raise residential energy efficiency were less far-reaching in the GCC countries and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Labeling energy-efficient appliances can help consumers make more informed choices and nudge producers to build more energy-efficient ones. Raising awareness of the importance of energy efficiency to tackle air pollution is essential. One approach to promoting energy efficiency is to introduce obligatory tests and labeling schemes, such as the ones that were implemented or are under way in the GCC countries regarding air conditioners (Andreula 2019). These measures have the dual advantage of raising awareness among consumers about energy inefficiency (via the labeling schemes) and incentivizing producers to invest in the production and distribution of more-efficient appliances (because of demand shifts). Greening Cities Greening cities—for example, by increasing the number of public parks and the use of vegetated building roofs and walls—is good for air quality. Increasing the share of vegetation in cities has been found to significantly enhance air quality; its effects have varied with the types of vegetation used. Because some forms of vegetation (for example broad-leaved trees) can trap air pollutants stemming from vehicles, careful impact evaluation of green infrastructure should be performed before its installation to improve the impacts on air quality. The link between air quality and urban vegetation has been investi- gated heavily. On open roads, the use of wide and tall vegetation with low porosity leads to downwind pollutant reductions, and low-level green infrastructure such as hedges can improve air quality conditions. Green walls and roofs on buildings (such as cultivation of greenery on them) are also an effective means to reduce air pollution (Abhijith et al. 2017). The potential of greener cities for air pollution abatement has also received some attention in the Middle East and North Africa, with cities increasing their share of green areas. In addition to decreasing air pollution, green spaces positively affect the general livability of cities and can contribute to mitigating the effects of excessive temperatures. City governments could support the spread of such measures by introducing regulations mandating a minimum share of green area per district or by granting subsidies for newly built build- ings that include green infrastructure. Box 3.17 provides an example of the potential for greener spaces in Cairo. 160 Blue Skies, Blue Seas BOX 3.17 Green Space in Cairo, Egypt There is increasing understanding of the potential of religion in supporting broader role of green space and “green infrastruc- green and sustainability awareness. ture” in mitigating urban heat island effects There is an argument for an integrated and in improving broader social well-being, approach to green-space provision, adapted health, and quality of life for residents as to local neighborhoods. This approach well as improving air quality. Cairo suf- would involve public-private partnerships fers from a shortage of green space, which and effective community involvement and has been exacerbated in recent decades by encompass smaller “pocket” areas and street luxury developments and the enclosure of greening, playgrounds, local sports facilities, public spaces along the Nile. Three pol- and larger green spaces. There is scope icy bodies and one executive-level govern- also to convert wasteland, as illustrated ment body guide green space provision: the by the Al-Azhar park in Eastern Cairo, a Ministry for Planning and Administrative 30-hectare park created in 2005 with the Reform, the Environmental Affairs Agency, assistance of the Aga-Khan Foundation and the Organization for Urban Harmony, other donors. The foundation also helped and the Cairo Cleaning and Beautification restore historic monuments and supported Agency. development activities for neighboring Private sector organizations provide 67 communities. percent of Cairo’s green space and charge There is scope for expanding initiatives entrance fees, membership fees, or both. that have been piloted, such as green roofs These spaces are used by only 30 percent and vertical gardens, hillside greening of the urban population and include gated on areas not suitable for construction, compounds and sporting clubs, smaller converting unused military and government green areas, and play spaces. The remaining land (nearly 840 hectares), “greening” the 70 percent use public spaces that are, riverbanks and cemeteries (500 hectares), however, unevenly distributed. The distance and greening unused industrial land and to the nearest green space is on average airport and railway premises. (The former 700 meters. The population groups with Imbaba airport premises, for example, the worst access to green space (more than have been converted into a local park, 1,350 meters away, on average, from even overcoming arguments for developing the the smaller and “pocket” green spaces) are area for high-density housing.) Although those in informal settlements. Surveys have both private and public green areas have a shown that women feel safer in green spaces role in green infrastructure provision, the where they can be with other women and biggest challenge will remain the provision family members, even where these spaces of accessible green space for Cairo’s poorest are small. Surveys have also indicated the residents. Source: Kafafy 2010. Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 161 The Al Shaheed Park in Kuwait is another prominent regional exam- ple where the main motivation was to protect the city from sandstorms and reduce air pollution. It is Kuwait’s largest park, with a green roof area of almost 20,000 square meters, and an artificial lake serves as a water reservoir during the hot season. It accommodates several ameni- ties, and its continuous park character, preserved by equipping most buildings with an accessible green roof, give inhabitants a safe retreat from the hot climate (ZinCo GmbH 2020). Roofs of buildings can also be used for energy production by install- ing solar panels, which support the overall change of the energy mix in the region’s cities as well as raising awareness for the possibilities of individual energy production in the population. Both local and federal governments could support such measures by granting subsidies for new buildings that include the integration of photovoltaic solutions in their design and construction. Furthermore, to incentivize the adoption of such solutions by companies but also private households, implement- ing efficient solutions for the feed-in of energy produced in this way in the general electricity system as well as establishing rates for feeding in energy are a necessary prerequisite to make such investments more attractive. Another possibility for public entities in this regard could be to act as a role model by mandating a minimum number of solar panels or similar technologies on government buildings. In the United Arab Emirates, recent projects like ones by SirajPower32—consisting of installing solar panels covering a roof area of around 70,000 square meters on more than 100 buildings in the Jebel Ali Free Zone East and West—highlight the potential for such efforts. Displacing about 7,500 metric tons of CO2 per year, which corresponds to more than 125,000 trees being planted, this project has a capacity of 6.75 MW (Construction Week 2020). Expanding such efforts on a larger scale can effectively help spread the use of renewable energy sources apart from installing large solar or wind parks and can raise awareness of the general population by making the use of renewable sources more tangible. Tables 3.6 and 3.7 summarize the plethora of options to tackle air pollution besides the emissions stemming from vehicles and industrial sources. Table 3.6 assesses some main aspects of the measures regard- ing their implementation, and table 3.7 provides closer descriptions of them. 162 Blue Skies, Blue Seas TABLE 3.6 Overview of Policy Options to Reduce Emissions from Waste Burning and for Other Objectives Main Timeline for subobjective Measures implementation Financial cost Effectiveness Stop agricultural waste burning short low high Reduce waste Improve SWM (including improved collection and recycling) medium high high burning Stop household waste burning short low high Promote individual green energy production medium medium high Promote greening of urban areas medium medium medium Other policies Raise energy efficiency in the residential sector medium medium high Provide information and awareness-raising campaigns short low medium (for example, for alternative energy sources) Source: Based on World Bank data. Note: The classifications of the qualifiers—timeline (short, medium, long); cost (low, medium, high); and effectiveness (low, medium, high)— are based on expansive literature reviews and the expert judgment of the report-writing team. (A full list of surveyed literature is available on request.) SWM = solid waste management. TABLE 3.7 Detailed Description of Policy Options to Reduce Emissions from Waste Burning and for Other Objectives Main Market-based Regulations subobjective Measures Technology instrument (MBI) supporting MBIs Stop agricultural waste “Happy Seeder”; biomass energy Creation of a market for Ban on burning agricultural burning plants crop residues (for example, waste for waste-to-energy), penalties for noncompliance Reduce waste Improve SWM (including Extended recycling capabilities, Subsidies recycling; charges Ban on open dumps and burning improved collection and enhanced pickup services on landfills; open dumps landfills recycling) Stop household waste Enhanced waste pick-up system; Subsidies for waste pickup Ban on open waste burning awareness programs services; penalties for burning by private noncompliance individuals Promote individual green Solar panels on buildings, Subsidies for solar panels, Minimum number of solar energy production windmills, feed-in system windmills; feed-in system for panels for new unused energy (government) buildings Promote greening of urban Public space investments, for Subsidies for green roofs Minimum amount of green areas example, in parks; greening of and walls space per urban district rooftops and buildings’ walls Raise energy efficiency in More efficient cooling systems; Charges on inefficient Ban on most inefficient Other policies the residential sector installation of LED lightbulbs; appliances; raise prices appliances; introduction of better insulation for new through removal of residential building codes dwellings electricity subsidies Provide information and Creation and administration of Subsidies for creation and None awareness-raising awareness campaigns promotion of campaigns campaigns (for example, for alternative energy sources) Source: Based on World Bank data. Note: LED = light-emitting diode; SWM = solid waste management. Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 163 NOTES 1. The GRID framework, as laid out in World Bank and IMF (2021), refers to a set of integrated, longer-horizon strategies to repair the structural damage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and accelerate climate change m itigation and adaptation efforts while also restoring momentum on the twin goals of poverty reduction and shared prosperity. A GRID growth path would have fewer emissions, less environmental degradation, and stronger ecosystems while at the same time boosting resilience and inclu- sion, if managed properly. 2. For more information about the Gallup World Poll and access to its data, see http://worldview.gallup.com. 3. “Ambient (Outdoor) Air Pollution.” Online fact sheet, World Health Organization (updated September 22, 2021): https://www.who.int/news -room/fact-sheets/detail/ambient-(outdoor)-air-quality-and-health. 4. The data and research results presented in this section were obtained using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) tool of the IHME’s Global Health Data Exchange (http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool). It should be noted that the IHME data represent estimates for the various health effects of AAP based on global models. The figures and numbers presented in this section are derived from these global models and hence are not based on direct observation. Although it would be desirable to base the analysis on directly observed figures, data limitations and lack of comprehensive studies (discussed later in this chapter, within the policy review section) necessi- tated the use of estimated data as a second-best option. 5. As noted earlier, this report focuses on ambient (outdoor) air pollution rather than household (indoor) air pollution. In most of the Middle East and North Africa economies—except for some of the poorest (namely, Djibouti and the Republic of Yemen) and in certain rural areas of other economies— indoor air pollution is not a big concern. 6. Air pollution has transboundary health impacts, because it is transported across national borders (see, for example, Anenberg et al. 2014; Zhang et al. 2017). This makes coordination at a supranational level crucial to stem the challenge presented by air pollution. 7. The link between air pollution and diabetes prevalence is discussed at length in Rajagopalan and Brook (2012). 8. As figure 3.8 shows, Malta has far lower death rates due to AAP than all other countries in the region. This is mainly due to its unique geographical location, being the only island. Furthermore, its membership in the European Union (EU) and hence its obligation to adhere to the EU’s stricter regulations sets it apart from the other economies in this respect. 9. The higher relative effect for wasting stems from the lower prevalence of children suffering from it relative to stunting. In the sample under investi- gation, almost 20 percent of the children were stunted (having a low height for a certain age), whereas 8 percent of the children fit the definition of wasted (having low weight for a certain height). 10. See Barnett et al. (2006) for Australia and New Zealand, and Samet et al. (2000) for the United States. 11. Conversely, air pollution increases obesity levels by reducing physical exercise (An et al. 2018; Deschenes et al. 2020). Of course, other factors driving the comorbidity risk include smoking and unhealthy diets. 164 Blue Skies, Blue Seas 12. For China, see Chen et al. (2020); for the United States, see Son et al. (2020). In addition, Venter et al. (2020) investigated levels of different pollutants in 27 countries worldwide using remote-sensing techniques validated with air quality monitoring stations during the spring 2020 lockdown. They found that air pollution was reduced significantly, with NO2 levels declining by 29 percent on average, ozone (O3) by 11 percent, and PM2.5 by 9 percent. Using exposure-response functions, they estimated that 7,400 deaths and 6,600 pediatric asthma cases were avoided in the two weeks following the lockdown. 13. Kodjak (2015) provides benefit-cost analyses on several emission standards that are or will be implemented and shows that benefits outweigh costs by a factor of 1.4 to 16, depending on the emission standard considered. Blumberg (2004) conducted a cost-benefit analysis on the introduction of an ultra-low- sulfur fuels policy in Mexico City and projected that annual net benefits exceed US$9 billion. Li, Lu, and Wang (2020) evaluated the recent enforce- ment of high-quality gasoline standards in China and determined that they reduced air pollutants by 12.9 percent on average; the net benefit of the measures is about US$26 billion. 14. Wang et al. (2014) provide cost-benefit calculations for several such policies for which benefits significantly outweigh costs. 15. Coady et al. (2017) estimate that phasing out fossil fuel subsidies would have reduced global carbon emissions by 21 percent and deaths related to fossil-fuel-induced air pollution by 55 percent in 2015 while also raising tax revenues by 4 percent and social welfare by 2.2 percent of global GDP. In 2015, the removal of such subsidies would have raised tax revenues by an estimated 3.8 percent of global GDP, and net economic benefits (that is, environmental benefits less economic costs) would have amounted to 1.7 percent of global GDP (Coady et al. 2019). 16. To set National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS), the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) designated six “criteria air pollut- ants,” which are common air pollutants that can harm human health and the environment and cause property damage. These pollutants include PM, photochemical oxidants (including ozone), CO, sulfur oxides, NOX, and lead. The EPA calls them “criteria” air pollutants “because it sets NAAQS for them based on the criteria, which are characterizations of the latest s cientific information regarding their effects on health or welfare” (“Criteria Air Pollutants,” US EPA website: https://www.epa.gov/criteria -air-pollutants). 17. For example, about 40 percent of subsidized fuel is smuggled out of Libya. 18. These countries include the GCC countries, Algeria, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq, and Libya. Syria and the Republic of Yemen are also exporting countries but to a lower degree, and trade relations have been rocked by recent unrest. 19. Source apportionment studies are bottom-up approaches to understanding air pollution concentrations, whereas emissions inventory and dispersion modeling are top-down approaches. 20. In Ahvaz, Islamic Republic of Iran, industrial processes accounted for around 38 percent of PM air pollution from anthropogenic sources, followed closely by traffic emissions (around one-third) and waste burning (10 percent), with the remainder from unspecified anthropogenic sources in 2010–11 Blue Skies for Healthy and Prosperous Cities 165 (Sowlat et al. 2013). In Kuwait City, traffic accounted for about two-thirds of anthropogenic PM2.5 emissions in 2004–05 and industry for about one-third (Alolayan et al. 2013). In Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, industry was the dominant source of PM2.5 and PM10 in 2011, accounting for almost 60 percent of PM10 emissions and close to 50 percent of PM2.5 emissions from human sources (Khodeir et al. 2012). 21. Information on Egypt’s emissions inventories comes from the World Bank’s work with the Ministry of Environment, Arab Republic of Egypt. 22. Some reports are already available on how to best reduce emissions in Greater Cairo (Larsen 2019), Tehran (Heger and Sarraf 2018), and Riyadh (Heger et al. 2019). More and better studies on air pollution sources are a precursor to specific analyses that allow for detailed policy recommendations. 23. The IEA fuel subsidy estimates for the countries available (specified in the paragraph) are derived using the price-gap methodology. The esti- mates included in the paragraph capture subsidies only on transport oil. For the IEA energy subsidies database, see https://www.iea.org/topics /energy-subsidies. 24. The economic reforms in Egypt received support in the form of a US$1.15 billion development policy financing loan from the World Bank and US$12 billion in the form of an Extended Agreement from the International Monetary Fund. 25. For more information about Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 11 on Sustainable Cities and Communities, including its specific targets and indi- cators, see the United Nations’ SDG 11 Knowledge Base page: https://sdgs .un.org/goals/goal11. 26. For example, evaluating the effectiveness of regulations to decrease indus- trial emissions set forth in China’s 11th Five-Year Plan (2006–2010), Zhang et al. (2015) show that end-of-pipe facilities (like flue-gas desulfurization) and increased technology efficiency significantly reduced major industrial pollutant emissions. 27. The effectiveness of emissions taxes in increasing air quality has been shown in the case of the Chinese “pollution tax” imposed in 2018 (Hu et al. 2018). The tax policy was generally successful in reducing levels of air pollutants like SO2, NOX, PM10, and PM2.5. However, Hu et al. (2018) stress that the significant effects were only in regions with large economic scale and in s ectors with high emission intensity. Hence, it could prove useful to have different tax rates for different industries and to give administrative units some discretion in their implementation of the taxes. 28. In Western Balkan, Central European, and Baltic countries—comparable in income and development to middle-income Middle East and North Africa countries—more than 60 percent of manufacturing firms were monitoring energy consumption, and a third were forming explicit targets for it, according to the World Bank Enterprise Surveys. In addition, almost 40 percent of manufacturers in Central Europe and the Baltic states have adopted specific measures to rein in excessive energy consumption. In the Western Balkans, this figure was lower (30 percent), but that share still exceeds that of the Middle East and North Africa surveyed group by around 10 percentage points. 29. See Zafar (2020a). This will also be discussed in more detail in chapter 4 of this report. 166 Blue Skies, Blue Seas 30. 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In this chapter, the next section reviews the current state of plastic pollution in the region, focusing on the Mediterranean Sea given its importance to the region’s local economies, whether urban or non-urban. It discusses the high amount of plastic debris already in these marine ecosystems. Although the rate of plastic waste generation per resident of the region is often not much greater than in comparable countries, the amount of plastic debris per resident ending up in the seas of the Middle East and North Africa is the highest in the world. Thus, the region’s population growth and changing consumption patterns present a challenge for the near future—especially regarding the treatment of waste—and under- mines the efforts to adopt green, resilient, and inclusive development (GRID), from which the region would benefit greatly (World Bank and IMF 2021). An alarmingly high level of waste is inadequately managed, particularly in the Maghreb and the Mashreq subregions, and often out- sourced to the informal sector with its precarious working conditions for the poor. Throughout the region, recycling rates are low, hampering the sustainable treatment of plastic waste in a circular fashion (ensuring it is reused and recycled instead of simply discarded). The chapter then discusses the severe adverse environmental, public health, and economic impacts of the flow and accumulation of plastics in 181 182 Blue Skies, Blue Seas the Middle East and North Africa’s seas. These impacts necessitate swift and concrete action by the region’s governments to switch to a GRID growth path in this area. The chapter’s discussion of policy options makes special note of the scant knowledge about the sources of the plastics flowing into the seas and the causes for its leakage there. To efficiently reduce the volume of this flow requires knowledge about where it is generated, who generates it, and which products end up as debris in the seas. Information about the hot spots of marine-plastic debris is sparse, and even less is known about the specific causes. Gathering information and identifying the sources of plastic waste and the reasons why it ends up in the seas is hence key for effective policy making, requiring more-detailed studies for proper identification of these sources and the causes of plastic leakage. Policy options to tackle plastic pollution in the Middle East and North Africa’s seas revolve around the concept of a circular economy and adequate solid waste management (SWM). These options are dis- cussed along the lines of the “3 R’s”: Reduce plastic consumption and production. Reuse plastic products. Recycle the plastic waste or dispose of it appropriately if neither reuse nor recycling are an option. Priority recommendations in this respect cover the following key areas: • Solid waste management. Improving the weak SWM systems in many of the region’s economies is a critical step to deal appropriately with plas- tic waste. Doing so has cross-benefits for the issue of air pollution because inadequately managed waste is often burned in an uncon- trolled manner (as discussed in chapter 3). • Recycling. Making recycling markets financially more sustainable is essential to increase the share of plastics that does not leave the value chain after a single use. • Public awareness. Accompanying the preceding two actions with infor- mation dissemination and public awareness programs is crucial to inform the public of the adverse effects of plastic pollution, change individual behavior, and increase demand for further policies. • Plastic alternatives. Close cooperation with and support for the private sector is critical to support the development of suitable plastic alternatives. • Pricing. The business environment for plastic alternatives must be enhanced by tackling the price discrepancies between those alterna- tives and products derived from virgin plastics. These differences often stem from artificially low prices of plastic products, resulting from large subsidies for fossil fuels that are feedstock and important energy Blue Seas: Freeing the Seas from Plastics 183 input in plastic production. Appropriate pricing would have cross- sector benefits regarding air pollution and can be supported by progressively phasing out single-use plastics (SUPs). The chapter concludes with detailed descriptions of a broad set of policy measures to stem the plastic tide, hence putting countries on a GRID path to tackle the issue of marine-plastic pollution and related problems. It details the deficiencies of SWM throughout the region, the reasons for unsustainable consumption and production patterns, and ways to tackle those issues. It also discusses the importance of increasing public aware- ness about the negative consequences of marine-plastic pollution as well as ways to garner support for cleanups of plastic waste, both in the seas and on the beaches. Pondering and acting on these policy recommenda- tions will be crucial if the Middle East and North Africa is to get a grip on the flow of plastics in its seas and address this issue consistent with a GRID framework. THE STATE OF PLASTIC POLLUTION IN THE SEAS Plastic-polluted seas are a consequence of both the growth in plastic use over recent decades and of poor SWM. Global plastic production has increased exponentially over the past 50 years, from 2 million tons in 1950 to more than 454 million tons in 2018 (Alessi and Di Carlo 2018). The prevalent and increasing use of plastics mainly has to do with its low cost (compared with alternatives) and its favorable physical characteristics—which, for example, increase the shelf life of perishable products and reduce transportation costs. Unfortunately, much of the plastic that is produced ends up in the oceans, and quantities of buoyant macroplastics on the ocean surface and along coastlines could quadruple by the mid-twenty-first century, reaching an estimated 4.5 million tons (Lebreton, Egger, and Slat 2019).1 Given these staggering numbers and the many adverse effects of marine- plastic pollution (discussed in the next section), it has been put squarely on the international agenda as a top global priority (box 4.1). These international dialogues will also set the context for the Middle East and North Africa’s regional and national efforts to combat the continued flow of plastics into its seas. Global Comparisons The Middle East and North Africa’s residents, on average, contribute the most plastic waste per person to their seas of any region in the world. 184 Blue Skies, Blue Seas BOX 4.1 Marine-Plastic Pollution within the International Policy Agenda The issue of marine-plastic pollution has about the EU’s action plan to reduce rightly caught the attention of international marine litter, see box 4.9.) policy makers and researchers in recent The international attention to the issue years. In the Sustainable Development of marine plastics also puts the Middle Goals (SDGs) of the 2030 Agenda for East and North Africa’s role into focus, Sustainable Development, SDG Target especially regarding plastics flowing into 14.1 refers directly to this issue: “By 2025, the Mediterranean Sea—one of the global prevent and significantly reduce marine hot spots in this respect—and the region’s pollution of all kinds, in particular from economies among the major contributors land-based activities, including marine to this trend. The focus and efforts of debris and nutrient pollution.”a international actors can give policy makers Several international environmental in the Middle East and North Africa a organizations—including, among many blueprint for how to best address the plastic others, the International Union for tide in their seas, as this report also intends Conservation of Nature (IUCN), to do. Greenpeace, and the Ellen MacArthur Moreover, the global momentum Foundation—have made informing the around this issue opens up possibilities to world about the extent, threats, and forge alliances and enter into cooperative combating of marine plastics one of their initiatives and agreements that can benefit top priorities. Similarly, supranational the region by supporting knowledge and organizations such as the United Nations technology transfers. These also include (UN) and the European Commission have regional efforts across the Middle East and emphasized the importance of stanching North Africa to induce learning processes the flow of plastics into the world’s oceans and exploit knowledge spillovers tailored and seas. One prominent example, the to the regional context. As this chapter 2021 introduction of the European Union discusses, these developments can benefit (EU) Directive on Single-Use Plastics the region’s economies not only from an (SUPs),b tackles 10 SUP items and fishing environmental perspective but also from gear that account for a large share of the an economic one through increased job waste that litters European beaches and creation in green sectors such as recycling pollutes the surrounding seas. (For more or the development of plastic alternatives. a. For more information about SDG 14 on Life below Water, including its specific targets and i ndicators, see the United Nations’ SDG 14 Knowledge Base page: https://sdgs.un.org/goals/goal14. b. Directive 2019/904, of the European Parliament and of the Council of 5 June 2019 on the Reduction of the Impact of Certain Plastic Products on the Environment, 2019 O.J. (L 155/1). Blue Seas: Freeing the Seas from Plastics 185 Both of the region’s drivers of increased marine-plastic pollution— increased plastic use due to large population increases and rising incomes as well as poor SWM—account for the large amounts of plastic waste flowing into the Middle East and North Africa’s seas. The average resident in the Middle East and North Africa contributes more than 6 kilograms (kg) of the plastic waste that flows into the marine spaces each year (Jambeck et al. 2015), as shown in figure 4.1. Only Sub- Saharan Africa and East Asia and Pacific come close to that level, with more than 5 kg of marine-plastic debris per capita per year. However, one should note that the heterogeneity of the region’s e conomies r egarding income, SWM adequacy, and production and consumption patterns also implies substantial heterogeneity in the amounts they i ndividually contribute. On aggregate, Algeria, the Arab Republic of Egypt, and Morocco are among the top 20 countries contributing the most plastic waste into oceans worldwide. In a global comparison, Egypt ranked 7th among the top 20 polluting countries in 2010, accounting for 3 percent of the discharge of plastic waste into the world’s oceans and seas; Algeria was 13th, with 1.6 percent; and Morocco was 18th, with FIGURE 4.1 Annual Per Capita Volume of Plastic Waste Entering the Sea, by World Region, 2010 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 ific sia an ica ica sia ica Pa c ral A be fr er A r rib h A m th n A f nd nt a rt A oua ra ia d C e s he C No h rt S hao a t A n t nd N -S as pe a nd t a ub E ro ica a as S Eu r le E e Am Mi dd ati n L Source: Based on Jambeck et al. 2015. Note: “North America” includes Canada and the United States. kg = kilograms. Plastic waste entering seas (kg/person/year) 186 Blue Skies, Blue Seas 1 percent (Jambeck et al. 2015), as shown in figure 4.2.2 Sixteen of the top 20 countries are middle-income countries, where broader waste management is not catching up with economic development. On aver- age, these countries mismanage 68 percent of their waste—that is, it ends up either as litter or inadequately disposed of in open dumps or uncontrolled landfills, where it is not fully contained. Intraregional Comparisons For most of the Middle East and North Africa economies, the amount of plastic debris entering the seas is set to double by 2025 relative to 2010 levels (figure 4.3). With rising incomes and continued population growth, waste generation and the proportion of plastics in the waste cycle are also set to rise in many of the region’s economies. Most studies suggest that the amount of plastic waste g enerated will increase faster than the governments’ ability to plan waste management systems and develop infrastructure unless there is a shift in production and consumption patterns, improvements in SWM, and increases in the rates of reusing and recycling plastic products (Jambeck et al. 2015). FIGURE 4.2 Top 20 Marine-Plastic Polluting Countries, 2010 4 3 2 1 0 na ia es m ka d p. ia ria sh ca ia ria ey an zil ri s a n e s i d o . s n n e e r e k t a a cc ep te Ch ne pi tn a ila R layL a ig ad Af In lg ur kis Br n m ro s R Stao p ie b a l T a o ’ Ind hil i V Sri Th raA M N g h A an y eut P M M pl tedP t, Ba So o i gy p . P e Un E m , D e rea Ko Source: Based on Jambeck et al. 2015. Note: Orange bars designate Middle East and North Africa countries. Error bars indicate confidence intervals. Marine-plastic debris (megatons per year) Blue Seas: Freeing the Seas from Plastics 187 FIGURE 4.3 Volume of Plastic Debris Entering the Seas from the Middle East and North Africa, by Economy, 2010 and 2025 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 . ep ria co ep . ep . sia lic ya on q t i t s e c i b b Ira u b ia az a ai an rai n te alt a and ata r R o R R n u i n ob ra G w m r a r ra A lg or en , ic Tu p L ba jibe e D i A nd Ku O ah i MM m R L B Em J o Q , A em la b u d a b t yp Y n, Is ra Sa nk ra Eg Ira A Ban t d A a s yri We ni te S U 2010 2025 Source: Based on Jambeck et al. 2015. Note: Figures for 2025 are projections. Mediterranean-Polluting Countries The Mediterranean Sea is today one of the most plastic-polluted seas in the world. This semi-enclosed area, surrounded by three continents and with intense human activity, works as a trap for plastics. For this reason, the Mediterranean is considered one of the six greatest accumulation zones for marine litter, together with the five “plastic islands” floating in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans (Cózar et al. 2014). The Mediterranean holds 1 percent of the world’s waters but contains 7 percent of the world’s marine-debris microplastics and is hence recog- nized as a global hot spot for targeted action (Alessi and Di Carlo 2018). Marine-plastic debris (megatons per year) 188 Blue Skies, Blue Seas Every year, the Mediterranean receives 150,000–500,000 tons of macro- plastics and 70,000–130,000 tons of microplastics.3 To put this into perspective, based on this estimate and recent fish- stock accounting, more plastic flows into the Mediterranean Sea yearly than the combined annual volume of the two most commonly caught fish species (Boucher and Billard 2020).4 Recent research shows that micro- plastics are present in the atmosphere, and synthetic textiles are the main sources of airborne microplastics, which disperse widely throughout the environment because of atmospheric conditions and human activities. During the summer months, tourists along the Mediterranean Sea gen- erate an additional 40 percent of waste that ends up in marine spaces. In total, an estimated 1,178,000 tons of plastics have accumulated in the Mediterranean (Boucher and Billard 2020). Middle East and North Africa economies are major contributors to this continuing accumulation. Plastic waste in the Mediterranean comes mainly from four countries (of which two are in the Middle East and North Africa): Egypt (32.8 percent), Turkey (16.4 percent), Italy (10.7 percent), and Algeria (5.9 percent) (Boucher and Billard 2020). Other countries in the region (such as Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia) are also substantial contributors (figure 4.4). Marine-plastics hot spots tend to appear near the mouths of major rivers (for exam- ple, the Nile), which transport plastic waste from regions not directly bordering the Mediterranean Sea. They also tend to appear close to larger cities or other urban areas (Alessi and Di Carlo 2018; Boucher and Billard 2020). Marine-Plastic Pollution of Other Seas in the Region Relative to the Mediterranean, less is known about the pollution levels in the other seas of the region, but recent studies show increasing levels of microplastics in the Gulfs and the Red Sea. Microplastics are documented in abundance within these marine environments. Their presence in marine sediments poses a legitimate environmental concern for toxicity and food chain transfer via marine organisms. Although the seas in the Regional Organization for the Protection of the Marine Environment (ROPME) Sea Area (RSA) are less well studied, recent research shows varying microplastics concentrations along the northern and southern coasts of the RSA but extremely high concentrations in biota along the coast of the Islamic Republic of Iran (Uddin, Fowler, and Saeed 2020).5 The predominant fibers found are polyethylene (PE), nylon, and PET (polyethylene terephthalate), which are commonly used in plastics bags, SUPs, bottles, discarded fishing gear, and urban and industrial outflows from washing synthetic clothes Blue Seas: Freeing the Seas from Plastics 189 FIGURE 4.4 Average Annual Plastic-Waste Contribution of Countries Bordering the Mediterranean Sea 80 60 40 20 0 nia ria nia tia us . ep ce ce el aly on ya lta ro co nia ain lic sia y a e a ls lba lg o ro yp r b R ra n ree sraI It an Li b g cMa ne ro ve Sp u b b p un i rke sta A A B C C a F G e o lo T Tu oa t, A r Le t S e c p Mo n M b R n y a o Eg n A r N ria Sy Source: Based on Boucher and Billard 2020. Note: Orange bars designate Middle East and North Africa countries. Data are from various years. a. “Noncoastal” countries denotes those that contribute to plastic pollution in the Mediterranean mainly through river flows, not from having a Mediterranean coastline. These countries are Bulgaria, Burundi, Ethiopia, Kenya, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Rwanda, Serbia, South Sudan, Sudan, Switzerland, Tanzania, and Uganda. (Naji, Esmaili, and Khan 2017; Uddin, Fowler, and Saeed 2020). In the Red Sea, one in every six fish has ingested small pieces of plastic, implying that microplastic pollution has reached commercial and non- commercial fish species (Baalkhuyur et al. 2018; Martin et al. 2018). Plastic Waste Generation in the Region Middle East and North Africa residents generate more plastic waste per capita than residents in Asia but less than other regions. Residents in high-income Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries generate around 0.2 kg per person per day, while residents in the low- and middle-income countries in the Maghreb and the Mashreq subregions generate around 0.09 and 0.07 kg per person per day, respectively (f igure 4.5). These generation rates are higher than the average plastic Tons of marine-plastic debris per year (thousands) 190 Blue Skies, Blue Seas FIGURE 4.5 Average Daily Plastic Waste Generation Per Capita, World Regions and Middle East and North Africa Subregions, 2016 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 d d on d a e a n an ic an ia ati cil an n hr eb req ric p i a ia if e s r n a a g sh e ur o As ar a a m th ah ric t A s ac opr l A p e ou ric be Ma M A n E P u -S A f as Eu nt ra Co o C me rib h r o b E e A a rt te S u C ulf Ctin e N o s S G a th W e L Source: Based on Law et al. 2020. Note: Orange bars designate three groups of economies within the Middle East and North Africa. The Gulf Cooperation Council includes Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The Maghreb subregion includes Algeria, Libya, Malta, Morocco, and Tunisia. The Mashreq subregion includes Djibouti, the Arab Republic of Egypt, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, the Syrian Arab Republic, West Bank and Gaza, and the Republic of Yemen. “North America” includes Canada and the United States. kg = kilograms. waste generation of 0.07 and 0.05 kg per person per day in East Asia and South Asia, respectively. North Americans generate the most plastic waste per capita in the world—around 0.27 kg per person per day. Within the Middle East and North Africa, GCC countries such as Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates are by far the largest plastic-waste producers, each generating more 0.3 kg per person per day. At the other end of the spectrum, the residents of Morocco, the Syrian Arab Republic, and the Republic of Yemen generate the least plastic waste per capita per day, each averaging less than 0.05 kg per person per day (Law et al. 2020). Some high-income GCC countries (Kuwait, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates) generate more plastic waste than similar high-income countries (countries above the green line in figure 4.6). However, Bahrain, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia produce less plastic waste than other income-comparable countries. As for the middle-income economies, Average daily plastic waste generation (kg per capita) Blue Seas: Freeing the Seas from Plastics 191 FIGURE 4.6 Correlation between GDP Per Capita and Rate of Plastic Waste Generation, 2016 0.9 FSM 0.8 0.7 0.6 BMU 0.5 PLW HKG KNA 0.4 ISL SGP MNG PRI ABW CYMMDA KWT ARE 0.3 BRB TTO CHE LUX MNE USA BHS GBR LCA HRV KOR BRN OMN DEU IRL KAZ 0.2 THA GRC MLT NLDSLB NRU MYS CYP ARG RUS EST TUV PSE BLZ DZA MKD SVN NZL AUT QAT BLR SYC SABEULKIR BRA ITA JOR EGY GRD BGR MEX HUATG L NPTRUT BHR MAC JAM BIH SDROBM UMRUS PANESP FRAHND ALB VEN CYHL AUS0.1 NIC GUY ECU SVKRWA ZWE DJI COL JPNGTM LBY IDN POL HTI MRT TUN DP PERMRYALBN CRI ROLUVA SWE KEN CPVSLV BTN SMRYEM TON UKVRZCATFAZE CUW CAF SSD TJK KCGIVZMHBL Z IND A WSMB GOOIRLSQWZXNKAAXRM GAB GNQ CAN COD TGO UGA VLBR ERGI NBBFA TZA SUENTCOG FJI MDG GAMFGB STPPP MM NAGK R MARIRN CSHUNRVNM DNKBDI SLE NPLBTELNS SDNNGA PHL LKA MDV TUR MOZTCD COMCMKBHRGMD GHA UZB GEO BWA FIN NOR 0 MWI NER ETHGMINLI LSO LAO TKM CZE 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 GDP per capita (log) Source: Based on Law et al. 2020. Note: Enlarged dots and codes in orange designate Middle East and North Africa economies. Smaller blue dots and codes designate econo- mies of other global regions. Data for the Syrian Arab Republic are unavailable. Economies are labeled using ISO alpha-3 codes, as listed on the Abbreviations page in the front matter of this report. Residents in the economies above the green line are generating more plastic waste than what their average income level would suggest. GDP = gross domestic product; kg = kilograms. Algeria, Jordan, and West Bank and Gaza produce more plastic waste than would be expected for their income levels, while the rest of the Maghreb and Mashreq countries are either on par with international comparators or slightly below (Law et al. 2020). Average daily plastic waste generation (kg per capita) 192 Blue Skies, Blue Seas The Waste Management Deficit The lack of appropriate waste management is a major challenge for marine plastics in the Middle East and North Africa. The reasons for inadequate waste management are the lack of treatment and bad disposal management (as further discussed in the subsection on policy options to “Stop the Leakage”). Whereas the number of well-managed landfills has increased in countries such as Egypt, Morocco, Qatar, and Tunisia over the past few years and the Gulf countries have implemented a number of waste-to-energy initiatives, open dumping is still prevalent in the region. High Rates of Poor Waste Management Fifty-three percent of the region’s total solid waste is inadequately man- aged, and around 12 percent of that solid waste is plastics (Kaza et al. 2018). In the Maghreb and Mashreq subregions, as much as 60 percent is inadequately managed (Jambeck et al. 2015), meaning that waste is mainly disposed of in open dump sites or uncontrolled landfills and often burned, either accidently or on purpose (figure 4.7). As a result of these practices, high volumes of plastics flow into the seas, leading to signifi- cant environmental degradation of countries’ coasts. This is especially the case in the Mediterranean Sea, where poor waste management is identified as the major reason for plastic leakage (Boucher and Billard 2020). Furthermore, poor waste management contributes to air pollu- tion, because waste in open dumps is prone to self-ignition and uncon- trolled burning for longer stretches of time. (For some of the effects on air pollution, see chapter 3.) Compared with countries of similar income, waste manage- ment practices in the Middle East and North Africa are more often inadequate. This is especially prevalent in the Mashreq subregion, where, for example, Egypt (67 percent), Iraq (63 percent), Morocco (66 percent), and Tunisia (60 percent) significantly mismanage their waste. When comparing the shares of inadequately managed waste with the income of countries, it is worrying that the region’s economies are doing worse than those with similar incomes (figure 4.8). Especially Egypt, Iraq, and the Islamic Republic of Iran are faring worse than comparable countries (represented by the green line in figure 4.8). GCC countries seem to be managing their waste relatively well relative to those with similar income levels, except for Bahrain (10 percent) and Saudi Arabia (8 percent). Blue Seas: Freeing the Seas from Plastics 193 FIGURE 4.7 Share of Mismanaged Waste, World Regions and Middle East and North Africa Subregions, 2010 100 75 50 25 0 ific l sia ci an eb eq ica pe sia icac A un e r r er ro A r d P a ral b h h t u h Co rib ag as Am E ut n Af an n n a M M rn o ra ia d C e s rat io e C rth te S ha A n e t h No es -Sa sta pe a oo p d W b E o C a an Su Eu r lf u eri c G m tin A La Source: Based on Jambeck et al. 2015. Note: “Mismanaged” waste refers to waste that is disposed of either as litter or in open dumps or uncon- trolled landfills, where it is not fully contained. Orange bars designate three groups of economies within the Middle East and North Africa. The Gulf Cooperation Council includes Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The Maghreb subregion includes Algeria, Libya, Malta, Morocco, and Tunisia. The Mashreq subregion includes Djibouti, the Arab Republic of Egypt, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, the Syrian Arab Republic, West Bank and Gaza, and the Republic of Yemen. “North America” includes Canada and the United States. Low Rates of Recycling The overall recycling level in the Middle East and North Africa (about 9 percent of municipal solid waste) is lower than the global average of 13.5 percent (orange line in figure 4.9) (Kaza et al. 2018). The GCC countries recycle at higher rates than the rest of the region. Qatar recycles more than 30 percent of its waste, slightly exceeding the global average for high-income countries (29 percent). However, other GCC countries recycle much less of their waste: the United Arab Emirates recycles 24 percent; Kuwait, 19 percent; Oman, 15 percent; Saudi Arabia, 12 percent; and Bahrain, close to 0 percent. Thus, on average, the GCC countries recycle only around 15 percent of their waste, well below the global average for high-income countries (green line in figure 4.9). Share of total waste mismanaged (%) 194 Blue Skies, Blue Seas FIGURE 4.8 Correlation between GDP Per Capita and Share of Mismanaged Waste, 2010 100 SLB KHPBMAGMKDMR VNM CODMOLZBR PNG IND TMGSODLGE GNGBKMIRBGTINZA COBME VUSTE N KEN CNMR MRFSM NCGIV T LKA HAA SSD WSM PHL IDN FJI ERI COG TON 75 YEMTUV CHNDJI THA AGO NRU MAR NAM EGY MDV IRQ TUN DZA JOR PLW ZAF MYS IRN GEO MUS50 UKR HTI NIC ALB HND BIH GUY SYCGTM GAB SLV LBN GNQ BGR BLZ ECU MNE JAM 25 PER DOM ROULBY VCT COL DMA LCAGRD PAN CRI TURURS SUR LVA LTU MEXARG POL BRA HRV BHR URY EST SAU PSE ATGCHKLNAVEN MLTBRB OMN CUW PRI BAHBSSTCA CE WVKJYNSINPOTPPZNARLGFCFBRAIRNBSDUNEWSELBNDISUMEHNLBUDKUKNRSGONACRYM IRL SGP 0 PRT MACGRC KWT ARE QAT 7 8 9 10 11 12 Source: Based on Jambeck et al. 2015 and the World Development Indicators database. Note: Economies are labeled using ISO alpha-3 codes, as listed on the Abbreviations page in the front matter of this report. Enlarged dots and codes in orange designate Middle East and North Africa economies. Data for the Syrian Arab Republic are unavailable. Smaller blue dots and codes designate economies of other global regions. The green line indicates the average share of mismanaged waste for a given income. “Mismanaged” waste refers to waste that is disposed of either as litter or in open dumps or uncontrolled landfills, where it is not fully contained. GDP = gross domestic product. The informal recycling sector is quite active across the region, espe- cially in the Maghreb and the Mashreq. For example, an estimated 96,000 informal waste pickers are active in Cairo and account for 10 percent of the waste collected in the city (Kaza et al. 2018). Compared to average recycling rates of lower-middle-income countries globally (6 percent; gray line in figure 4.9), the Mashreq is lagging (4.7 percent), while the Maghreb is on par (6.3 percent). These rather low levels of recycling imply that most plastic is leaving the value chain after a single use, especially when considering that plastic recycling rates are generally much lower than global recycling rates (Shen and Worrell 2014). Share of total waste inadequately managed (%) Blue Seas: Freeing the Seas from Plastics 195 FIGURE 4.9 Share of Municipal Solid Waste Recycled in the Middle East and North Africa, by Region, Subregion, and Economy, 2020 30 20 10 0 tar tes ai t an . .bia co an on ep ep aq sia ia lic p . za n a C b q a Qa ira uw m ra ro c rd n R R Ir i e r b Re a ra i iby GC re re fri c m K O i A o Jo eb a , en ic Tu n lg pu b A d G ah L gh has A E ud M L m am R e a Ar an B Mal M rt h Ar ab Sa Ye , Is ra b t, op nk N ed Ira n A gy Ban t n d nit yr ia E s t a U S W e Ea s dle d Mi Source: Verisk Maplecroft 2020. Note: The orange line denotes the world average recycling rate, the green line the average for high- income countries, and the gray line the average for lower-middle-income countries (grouped by World Bank income classification). The gray bar designates the Middle East and North Africa region as a whole. Light blue, orange, and yellow bars designate three groups of economies within the Middle East and North Africa, respectively, as follows: The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) includes Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The Maghreb subregion includes Algeria, Libya, Malta, Morocco, and Tunisia. The Mashreq subregion includes Djibouti, the Arab Republic of Egypt, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, the Syrian Arab Republic, West Bank and Gaza, and the Republic of Yemen. Data for Djibouti and Malta are unavailable. Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic increased the use of plastics, hence increasing environmental pollution. The pandemic has massively increased the consumption of some plastic products including personal protective equipment and other single-use medical equipment along with packaging for food delivery services. In the Middle East and North Africa, countries like Egypt, Jordan, and Morocco mobilized industries to meet local and international demand for medical masks (Hamdallah 2020; Makki, Lamb, and Moukaddem 2020). Pharmacy customers in Lebanon were reportedly buying an average of seven masks per week after the Ministry of Health made it mandatory to wear one when leaving home (Houssari 2020). In the Gulf countries, restaurants are providing dine-in customers with up to three sets of disposable plates, cups, and cutlery for a single meal (Malek 2020). Share of total waste recycled (%) 196 Blue Skies, Blue Seas Currently, most of the region lacks adequate infrastructure for the collection, treatment, and disposal of hazardous and medical waste, and most of the waste gets mixed with municipal solid waste, thus ending up in open dumps. Pictures of masks and gloves littering the streets, rivers, and beaches have made visible the recent impact of the increased use of plastics. The COVID-19 global health crisis is putting additional pressure on already weakened waste management practices. Moreover, as lock- downs took effect to slow the spread of the virus, the global demand for petroleum collapsed. As a result, oil prices plummeted, making the manufacture of virgin plastics from fossil fuels much less expensive than recycling. This cost incentive, along with the lifestyle change, has complicated the challenge of overcoming plastic pollution (Adyel 2020). Although the rise in demand is expected to be temporary, behavioral barriers and misperceptions might make these “new” norms particularly sticky and hinder society’s ability to transition to more sustainable prac- tices and reduce the consumption of plastic products. As events continue to evolve and research progresses, it is expected that this new context will exert even more pressure on degraded environmental systems. THE ENVIRONMENTAL, PUBLIC HEALTH, AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF PLASTIC-POLLUTED SEAS Decades of weak SWM infrastructure and lack of proper regulation have taken a toll, and the ecological health of the Middle East and North Africa’s seas is in decline. The Mediterranean Sea is among the most plastic-polluted seas in the world, with plastic concentrations comparable to the five large accumulation zones of the five subtropical gyres (Cózar et al. 2014).6 In fact, only the garbage patch (a large area of captured marine debris) at the inner accumulation zone of the South Atlantic Gyre has a higher average concentration of plastics. When compared with five major oceanic zones,7 the Mediterranean outpaces their average plastic- concentration rates by far (Cózar et al. 2014). Large amounts of both macroplastics (items 5 millimeters or larger) and microplastics (items smaller than 5 millimeters) are entering the Mediterranean every year (Boucher and Billard 2020). Regarding microplastics, the Mediterranean has been found to be the most polluted in terms of particles, with estimates ranging between 21 percent and 54 percent of all global microplastic particles (van Sebille et al. 2015).8 Such levels of plastic pollution in the Mediterranean have many negative effects. Among others, they reduce the productivity of certain blue economy sectors, result in losses of safe habitats for a host Blue Seas: Freeing the Seas from Plastics 197 of marine and coastal species, and are detrimental to human health. This section discusses these effects, in turn, on ecosystems and biodiversity, public health, and the region’s economy. The Toll on Local Ecosystems and Biodiversity The Mediterranean is one of the world’s most highly valued seas, with a vast set of coastal and marine ecosystems that make it one of the world’s biggest marine and coastal biodiversity hot spots. Sixty percent of its flora is unique to the region, and even though it represents less than 1 percent of the world’s ocean surface, it is home to 28 percent of the world’s endemic species (Vié, Hilton-Taylor, and Stuart 2009). Plastic waste has severe impacts on Mediterranean ecosystems and local biodiversity. The increase in plastic pollution is reducing biodiver- sity, for example by entangling wildlife, which leads to high mortality rates. Of all entangled wildlife, 35 percent are birds, and hence most affected, followed by fish (27 percent), invertebrates (20 percent), and mammals (13 percent) (UNEP 2015). Recent studies show that certain consumer plastic items—plastic bags, packaging, and sheets; fishing nets and monofilament line; and balloons and other latex products— are dis- proportionally lethal to marine megafauna (Roman et al. 2020). Smaller items, although abundant, are seldom implicated in mortality. However, understanding which items disproportionately result in mortality and determining whether these items originate from land or sea provides an opportunity to prioritize policies that could help reduce debris-related mortality of threatened marine megafauna. Sea-based debris (including fishing nets and ropes, fishing hooks, lines, and tackle) contribute less pollution than land-based sources, but they are an important source of animal mortality. In some geographi- cal locations, especially in the Great Pacific Garbage Patch, fishing debris amounts to almost half of all plastic debris by weight (Lebreton et al. 2018). As for the Mediterranean, studies in Morocco confirm that marine debris from fishing contributes around 3–5 percent of total plas- tic debris (Nachite et al. 2019). The impact on megafauna of ingesting sea-based debris may be underestimated because of spatial biases in data collection. Because lethality estimates are driven by the relative frequency of presence and absence of ingested items, spatial factors are ultimately less important than the physiological impact of different debris items within the ani- mal’s gut (López-Martínez et al. 2021; Roman et al. 2020).9 Studies confirm that sea-based debris are important causes of mortality across all megafauna groups (López-Martínez et al. 2021; Roman et al. 2020; UNEP 2015). 198 Blue Skies, Blue Seas Microplastics are the most abundant debris reported floating in the marine environment. Quantities of microplastics in marine spaces are increasing exponentially, mostly resulting from the surface-weathering degradation of plastic debris and other sources such as tire abrasion, production pellets, textiles, and personal care products carried from wastewater and surface runoff into the soil, rivers, lakes, and ulti- mately the oceans (Lebreton et al. 2017; Pew Charitable Trusts and SYSTEMIQ 2020). The smaller the microplastics, the wider the range of marine organ- isms able to ingest or interact with them. Microplastics can also absorb and concentrate hydrophobic pollutants present in seawater at very low concentrations, increasing the adverse effects of ingestion by animals. At present, over 660 species—ranging from seabirds, fish, and mollusks to the zooplankton at the bottom of marine and food chains—are known to be affected by plastic debris (Lebreton and Andrady 2019). Filling knowledge gaps will allow a better understanding of the tipping points and environmental thresholds for marine-plastic pollu- tion and improve policy design specifically to address this issue and its c onsequences for human health. The Consequences for Public Health We are only beginning to understand the negative health consequences of plastics in the seas for human health; research on the impacts is at its infancy. A 2019 study by the University of Newcastle, Australia, found that an average person could be ingesting as much as 5 grams of plastics every week (Senathirajah and Palanisami 2019).10 Other studies estimate that children and adults might ingest from dozens to 100,000 microplastic specks each day (Nor et al. 2021). Through the different ways that waste is mismanaged (for example, ending up in marine spaces but also often burned and thereby entering the air), the exposure routes have been expanded from the food chain to contaminated food and drinks and, more recently, to inhalation (Zhang et al. 2020). In sum, plastics have been found in the food we eat (fish that have eaten plastics), the water we drink (microplastics in the drinking water), and the air we breathe (airborne plastic particles from uncontrolled waste burning). Exposure Routes Microplastics have recently been detected in the atmosphere of urban, suburban, and even remote areas far from source regions of microplastics, suggesting long-distance atmospheric transport of microplastics. In addi- tion, emerging evidence suggests the presence of microplastics in human Blue Seas: Freeing the Seas from Plastics 199 stool and colectomy specimens, confirming its presence in the human colon through ingestion (D’Angelo and Meccariello 2021; Ibrahim et al. 2021). Microplastics are commonly found in marine-related produce such as seafood and table salt. In humans, most of the microplastic ingestion from seafood is likely from species eaten in their entirety, such as mus- sels, oysters, shrimps, crabs, and some small fish. For example, micro- plastics have been found in the digestive tract of many commercial species, such as Atlantic mackerel (Scombrus scombrus), herring (Clupea harengus), and plaice (Pleuronectes plastessa) as well as the digestive tract within the shell and in the muscle tissue of wild tiger prawns (Penaeus semiculcatus) and brown shrimp (Crangon crangon). Microplastics have been found in all samples of mussels purchased from UK supermar- kets (CIEL 2019). Regarding seaweed, at high exposure, microplastic particles could stick to the surface of edible species (such as Fucus vesiculosus), although washing reduced the number of particles by 94.5 percent. Microplastic particles have been found in commercial table salt derived from sea, lake, and rock salt, which suggests the high-level con- tamination of the environmental background (CIEL 2019). Consumers who drink three cups of coffee in disposable paper cups are ingesting about 75,000 microplastic particles from the thin layer of plastic inside the cup (D’Angelo and Meccariello 2021). Morbidity and Mortality Risks Evidence regarding microplastic toxicity and epidemiology is emerging. From a human health perspective, the effects of inhaled or ingested microplastics depend on factors such as size, chemical composition, and shape. The absorbed particles can affect the body through chemical toxic- ity, and the smallest particles can be taken in by cells, potentially being transferred to human body tissues and causing inflammations comparable to the impacts of particulate matter. The interaction between microplas- tics and other gut contents, including proteins, lipids, and carbohydrates, appears to be highly complex (CIEL 2019; Dalberg Advisors 2019a; Lim 2021; Pew Charitable Trusts and SYSTEMIQ 2020) but potentially dangerous. Initial results showed that the accumulation of microplastics in the human body could lead to inflammation, tissue damage, cell death, or carcinogenesis (Wright and Kelly 2017). In addition, there is growing evidence that plastics may be con- tributing significantly to exposure to complex mixtures of chemical contaminants (such as chemicals either intentionally added during the production process, originating from ultraviolet [UV] radiation, com- ing from the waste-recycling process, or absorbed from environmental 200 Blue Skies, Blue Seas pollution) that cause endocrine disruptions from inhalation, ingestion, or both inhalation and ingestion of microplastics (Gallo et al. 2018). Finally, some of the most recent research has examined potential reproductive effects. Microplastics accumulate in placentas during preg- nancies and are a potential threat to male fertility. Several microplastic fragments were detected in placenta samples in a recent study collected from pregnant women. Possible entry points include the bloodstream but also respiratory and gastric organs (Ragusa et al. 2021). Ingested microplastics can also bioaccumulate in mammalian tissue, affecting rodents’ semen quality, as a consequence of inflammation and oxidative stress damage. Furthermore, the morphological features of microplastics can make them an ideal vehicle for additional environmental pollutants (D’Angelo and Meccariello 2021). That microplastic exposure affects sperm quality in animals highlights possible reproductive risks for humans as well, a topic where further research is needed. The Costs to the Blue Economy The Mediterranean’s “blue economy” is among the most valued in the world, and its coastal and marine areas represent one of the Middle East and North Africa region’s most important economic assets. The Mediterranean Sea’s vast coastal and marine ecosystems deliver impor- tant economic and environmental benefits. The “shared wealth fund”— that is, the value of the Mediterranean coastal and marine assets dependent on functional ecosystems—was calculated to total about US$5.6 trillion, comprising marine fisheries (US$39 billion), sea grass (US$716.9 billion), productive coastline (US$4.65 trillion), and carbon absorption (US$173.5 billion), and generating economic output of about US$450 billion per year (Randone, Di Carlo, and Constantini 2017). The tourism sector accounts for 92 percent of the total value, followed by ecosystem services enabled by the ocean (6 percent), and fisheries and aquaculture (2 percent). Before the COVID-19 pandemic, the Mediterranean region attracted one-third of all global tourism, and sev- eral Middle East and North Africa countries rely on this sector for much of their income. Moreover, the Mediterranean Sea brings innumerable other benefits not included in this valuation, including ecosystem services such as coastal protection and climate regulation. The Mediterranean also pro- vides strong interdependencies with other critical sectors for the region’s economy such as transportation, clean energy, and cultural tourism. Marine-plastic pollution causes heavy economic losses to this eco- nomic wealth. Losses from plastic pollution are estimated at €641 million per year for the Mediterranean, including up to €268 million in tourism, Blue Seas: Freeing the Seas from Plastics 201 €235 million in the maritime industry, and €138 million in fisheries (Dalberg Advisors 2019d), as follows: • Tourism-related costs are linked to the expenses incurred by coastal towns to clean up beaches from additional waste generated during the tourist season. Marine litter also affects the aesthetic value (which is difficult to quantify) and attractiveness of the beaches and shorelines for recreational purposes, such as diving, snorkeling, and recreational fishing (during which plastics can affect catch amounts and damage gear) (UNEP 2016). • The maritime industry reliant on propeller boats (in marine transporta- tion and fishing, for example) is particularly vulnerable to collisions with large plastic objects that become entangled with propeller blades and clog water intakes for engine cooling systems. Costs are calculated in vessel downtime, delays, and additional maintenance costs. • Port facilities are at risk of damage from plastic pollution, including the clogging of waterways, which creates delays and causes additional cleanup costs. • For the fishing sector, the largest costs come from vehicle damage and maintenance caused by plastic debris, collision with plastics, and delays when fishing nets fill up with plastics rather than fish (Dalberg A dvisors 2019d). In addition to the significant costs of plastic waste to the tourism, fish- ing, and shipping industries, the plastics-producing industry also con- sumes large amounts of fossil fuels, directly as feedstock and indirectly in the form of produced electricity, leading to high climate and air p ollutant emissions. Over 90 percent of plastics produced are derived from virgin fossil feedstocks (EMAF 2016). Feedstock prices are the most influential factor in determining regional production advantages because these prices are a major part of the overall cost structure for petrochemicals (IEA 2018) and are a major determinant of overall costs for plastic production. In the Middle East and North Africa, more precisely in the Middle East, feedstock prices account for around one-fourth to one-third of total costs (for products using ethane as feedstock), while comparable feedstock accounts for about 50 percent of total costs in Europe and the United States. The Middle East and North Africa’s low prices for fos- sil fuels and (in some countries) heavy subsidies to the fossil fuel sector drive down overall costs for petrochemicals and plastic production (as the Policy Review section discusses in more detail). Research indicates that 8 percent of the world’s oil production is used to make plastics, half 202 Blue Skies, Blue Seas of which is used as material feedstock and half as fuel for the production process (BP 2015; Hopewell, Dvorak, and Kosior 2009; Plastics Europe 2015). This is equivalent to the oil consumption of the global aviation sector (EMAF 2016). If the current strong growth of plastics continues as business as usual, the plastics sector will account for 20 percent of total oil consumption by 2050.11 POLICY REVIEW: HOW TO GET CLEAR, BLUE, PLASTIC-FREE SEAS? This section discusses some of the main steps toward “blueing” the Middle East and North Africa region’s seas and making them free of marine plastics while also considering the differences between economies. First, the “Priority Recommendations” section addresses how plastic pollution of the region’s seas exemplifies the damages that a traditional linear economy causes to environments and their inhabitants and economies. This part of the report recommends transforming the life cycle of plastics through a circular-economy approach that will preserve environmental resources, improve residents’ well-being, and advance the region’s economies. The recommendations presented here can be implemented while the region’s economies make the necessary invest- ments to obtain country-specific data and evidence to combat plastic pollution—most importantly, identifying sources of marine-plastic pollution by location and economic sector. Although a wealth of infor- mation about plastic pollution exists at the global level, including for the Mediterranean, local source information on marine plastics is critically missing. Such information is key for designing effective policy measures to achieve a circular-economy approach that will synergistically benefit environments, residents’ health, and their economies. Second, a section on “The Sources of Marine Plastics” discusses the limited regional information currently available on sectors, types of plastics, hot spot locations, and leakage points. It also briefly discusses the global literature on the main sources of leakage, then summarizes the recent work of some Middle East and North Africa economies to identify hot spots. Third, the “Comprehensive Policy Options” section reviews the full range of policies to stem the region’s plastic-pollution wave. It discusses the principles of a circular economy and presents examples of how both private sector and public sector actors can tackle some of these issues to improve the circularity of plastics while transforming the region’s economy and waste management. Blue Seas: Freeing the Seas from Plastics 203 Priority Recommendations: Actions to Stem the Plastic Tide Reducing marine-plastic pollution requires (a) comprehensive solutions along the plastic life cycle that are (b) linked to a circular-economy approach and (c) tailored to each country’s specific context and needs. The building blocks of this integrated approach are a set of components commonly known as the 3 R’s: reduce, reuse, recycle. The 3 R’s of a Circular Economy Reduce. New ways to reduce the use (and thereby the manufacture) of plastic might include, for example, incentivizing the use (and thereby the manufacture) of reusable rather than SUP food-service-related materials such as plastic bags, cups, dishes, knives, forks, and spoons. These new ways must take into account that it is currently much easier and cheaper for consumers and manufacturers to see such products as single-use throwaways. Governmental entities must create appropriate incentives and corresponding disincentives to change such throwaway-oriented consumer and producer behaviors to limit the current—and future— harms of plastic pollution and achieve the environmental, public health, and economic benefits of a circular-economy approach. Reuse. New approaches are needed to foster the reuse of plastic products by changing consumer and producer behaviors. As with reducing the use of plastics, increasing the reuse of plastics requires government incentives and disincentives to foster circular-economy approaches that benefit the entire spectrum of individuals, communi- ties, private enterprises, and government programs. To that end, it is important to redirect the financial resources that stakeholders now pay for dealing with the consequences of plastic pollution, enabling them instead to benefit from a circular-economy approach to the use of plastics. Recycle. New methods for recycling plastic products can help ensure that nonreplaceable natural resources currently used in the manufacture of virgin plastics can be saved for more essential uses. The use of natural resources for the extensive manufacture of virgin plastics is not an essential use, because recycled plastics can serve that same purpose. Furthermore, recycling reduces the stream of waste that imposes • Direct costs (for operating and expanding dump sites); • Indirect social costs (for health care to treat air-pollution-related dis- eases, since dump sites in the Middle East and North Africa are often openly burning (both intentionally and by accident), which produces airborne toxic particles); 204 Blue Skies, Blue Seas • Costs incurred by fishers and port operators from macroplastics damage; • Demonstrated health impacts on humans from ingesting the micro- plastics in contaminated fish; and • Forgone economic benefits (when tourists avoid plastic-polluted beaches and other coastal areas). All of those costs would be dramatically reduced if not eliminated by a circular-economy approach to the use of plastic. Priority Steps toward Achieving a Circular Economy In parallel with the 3 R’s of a circular-economy approach to plastic pollu- tion of the region’s seas, governmental entities must continue and enhance cleanup methods to restore ecosystems affected by high levels of plastic pollution—including the beach areas vital to Middle East and North Africa economies’ income from international and intranational tourists. Essential to such restoration is the upgrading of SWM policies, practices, and facilities. Although pollution prevention is preferable to pollution r emediation, the reality is that it will take time for the region’s economies to shift to a circular-economy approach regarding the use of plastics. Moreover, the leakage of plastics and other pollutants from poorly maintained dump sites poses substantial current threats to residents’ health, to local and national economies, and to environmental resources. Dump-site leakage of pollutants contributes to residents’ morbidity and mortality, damages local and national economies, and spoils—in some cases, irretrievably— the region’s natural resources. Piecemeal approaches will at best yield fragmentary and partial solutions. The only comprehensive solution to plastic pollution of the Middle East and North Africa’s seas and coastal areas is a circular-economy approach to the use of plastics. For a 3 R’s approach of reduce, reuse, and recycle—along with appropriate SWM (including cleanups) of plastics not amenable to reuse or recycling—to work, government entities (in cooperation with academia, nongovernmental organizations [NGOs], and the private sector) must raise public awareness about the negative impacts of plastic pollution on their health, their family members' health, and on the economy. Meanwhile, governments must support those residents and enterprises that experience financial challenges in the transition to a circular-economy approach, while also continuing to advance the circular economy’s comprehensive overall benefits. The priority policy recommendations below are divided into five main categories; however, all of them are interdependent. Table 4.1 summarizes these priority recommendations. Blue Seas: Freeing the Seas from Plastics 205 TABLE 4.1 Priority Policy Options to Tackle Marine-Plastic Pollution in the Middle East and North Africa, by Subregion Timeline for Main objective Measure Subregiona implementation Financial cost Effectiveness Convert open dumps to engineered landfills Maghreb, Mashreq medium high high Stop plastic leakage by Improve municipal financing for SWM projects Maghreb, Mashreq medium high medium improving SWM Upgrade vehicle fleet for collection services Maghreb, Mashreq medium high medium Decrease production and Increase input prices for producers by removing fossil fuel subsidies Mashreq, GCC short medium high consumption of plastic items Introduce taxes, charges, or both for plastic products Maghreb, Mashreq, GCC short medium high Increase quality and quantity of recyclable materials and plastic Maghreb, Mashreq, GCC medium high high reprocessing capacity Ensure reliable, high-quality Mandate minimum recycled contents Maghreb, Mashreq, GCC medium high high supply of recycling materials Create pathways to formalization for informal recyclers Maghreb, Mashreq short medium medium Support enterprise-development programs for recyclers’ associations and Maghreb, Mashreq short low high cooperatives Develop fiscal, market, and regulatory instruments Maghreb, Mashreq, GCC medium low high Generate long-term demand Introduce EPR systems and DR schemes Maghreb, Mashreq, GCC long medium high for recycled plastics Execute social marketing, campaigns, and educational programs Maghreb, Mashreq, GCC short low medium Enable new manufacturing Add subsidies for R&D, and implement blended finance schemes for GCC medium medium high processes and technologies, companies developing new alternative products and recyclable materials innovation, green jobs, and development of alternative Align and standardize recycling of packaging Maghreb, Mashreq, GCC medium medium high green materials Progressively phase out SUPs (for example, food containers, straws) GCC long high high Source: Based on World Bank data. Note: DR = deposit-refund; EPR = extended producer responsibility; R&D = research and development; SUPs = single-use plastics; SWM = solid waste management. a. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) includes Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The Maghreb subregion includes Algeria, Libya, Malta, Morocco, and Tunisia. The Mashreq subregion includes Djibouti, the Arab Republic of Egypt, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, the Syrian Arab Republic, West Bank and Gaza, and the Republic of Yemen. 206 Blue Skies, Blue Seas No. 1: Improve SWM to Minimize Plastic Leakage To move toward a circular economy, improve SWM to minimize plastic leakage. This also provides important co-benefits for the urban environ- ment (such as reducing the costs of cleaning up such leakage) and public health (reducing morbidity and mortality related to air pollution from open burning at dump sites). Although SWM is generally a local responsibility, national govern- ments can help cities improve their capacity to organize and regulate the collection and disposal of urban waste. Consequently, adequate financing schemes must be put in place that are tailored to local solutions. These improvements include not only the phaseouts of harmful disposal prac- tices such as open dumps or uncontrolled landfills but also upgrading of collection and processing equipment to reduce leakage. The COVID-19 crisis increased the pressure to develop adequate medical and other hazardous waste management systems, which are largely missing in the region; therefore, this circumstance should be addressed, because the COVID-19 situation remains unstable. One first step would be to sort and segregate waste at the source, separating organic from inorganic waste where possible. No. 2: Make Recycling Markets Work Well-functioning recycling markets require a reliable supply of materials to be recycled. The quality and quantity of recycled material and plastics in the region is low, and processing capacity is limited. Setting manda- tory minimum amounts of recycled content in manufactured items would guarantee a domestic demand and encourage investments in the plastic-recycling industry. To this end, guidelines and standards for recycling across the value chain must be developed, together with uni- form labeling systems that indicate recyclability to inform and guide consumers and recyclers. There is a potential US$6 billion recycling industry in GCC countries alone if 40 percent of the waste were recycled (Menachery 2020). Creating an enabling environment to support a transparent local market and long-term demand for recycling is a must to implement a functional circular-economy approach to the manufacture and use of plastics. In most Middle East and North Africa economies, the collection of recyclable material relies on the informal sector. Appropriate govern- ment policies can create more jobs and improve the working conditions of informal waste pickers by building capacity for delivering higher- quality products through training and through small and microenterprise development programs. In addition, government policies can provide the informal industry with a pathway to formalization, licensing, and compli- ance to ensure a transparent market and level playing field with formal Blue Seas: Freeing the Seas from Plastics 207 recyclers who comply with environmental, health, and safety standards and other requirements. As markets develop, recovery and recycling facilities can provide economies of scale, reducing the costs of recycling. To make recycling markets functional and successful, there is a need to generate long-term demand by developing national standards combined with support to local governments to build capacity for ensuring local-level separation, recycling, and technology upgrades. No. 3: Raise Public Awareness about Improving SWM Programs to improve SWM must be accompanied by information and public-awareness campaigns. Because improved SWM implies actions and costs that include the collaboration of residents and consumers, resi- dents must be made aware of the advantages of improved SWM— particularly its potential to prevent the damage that plastic littering causes not only to public health, drainage channels, rivers, shorelines, and sea life but also to local and national economies. Campaigns can build support for behavioral change to increase the use of recyclable products and separate waste at the source. Most current recycling programs in the Middle East and North Africa fail because they lack local residents’ participation and because they mismanage waste at the source (World Bank 2021d, 2021f). Information and logistical support to enable separation (for example, through well-designed communication campaigns, provision of clearly marked containers, and convenient disposal sites) are critical actions to increase recycling levels and the quality of collected materials. Educational programs in schools are also important to raise awareness of environmental responsibility and build understanding of the princi- ples of circular economies. Similarly, volunteer beach and river cleanup programs have proven to raise awareness of environmental values among residents—while those programs and their participants perform the valuable task of removing plastic litter and other litter from beaches and thereby also prevent a sizable portion of such litter from ending up in the region’s seas. No. 4: Collaborate with the Private Sector toward Phasing Out SUPs Collaboration with the private sector supports the development and manufacturing of alternatives to SUPs, aligns recycling standards, and helps to progressively phase out SUPs. As a result, reducing overall plas- tic use has significant potential to create new markets and local jobs in a postpandemic context. Commitments by governmental entities to reduce overall plastic use can stimulate innovation, develop new technologies, 208 Blue Skies, Blue Seas and provide collaboration opportunities for dynamic businesses in a changing world—while preserving the natural resources upon which all nations depend. The new circular economy requires new forms of government- business collaboration to standardize types of packaging with increased recycled content. This requires a new set of regulations and blended financing schemes to help leapfrog technologies and develop recycling markets. Governments are important enablers—indeed, they are the only organizations with the authority, ability to establish incentives and disincentives, and other resources—to promote this approach. And only they can enact and implement the legal and regulatory frameworks needed to break down barriers to investments by using economic and financial instruments such as those described in the “Comprehensive Policy Options” section below. SUPs are the most problematic plastics because they account for the great majority of items found to be polluting the seas and beaches. On Moroccan beaches, five SUP items (cigarette butts, bottle caps, food wrappers, beverage bottles, and shopping bags) accounted for 59 percent of the marine debris (World Bank 2021d). Recent European bans on SUPs show how to set progressive measures over the next few years with an initial focus on products that have non-SUP alternatives readily avail- able while supporting the development of additional new alternatives. In this regard, both the private and public sectors have critical roles to play—the private sector in driving innovative solutions to the plas- tic crisis and the public sector in creating an enabling environment to support the phaseout of SUPs, the development of alternatives, and the setting of ambitious goals. Middle East and North Africa governments and companies can work together to gradually replace SUPs and increase the availability and affordability of greener alternatives. These programs can be part of a stimulus plan with blended finance schemes for sustain- able recovery in a postpandemic world. No. 5: Level the Playing Field for Green Alternatives Reducing fossil fuel subsidies can help level the playing field for greener alternatives. The current alternatives to plastics (for example, wooden spoons, paper cups, bioplastic food wrapping, starch-based bowls, and so forth) are significantly less available and more expensive than the plastic versions. In the Middle East and North Africa, this price gap is at least a factor of four and in most cases much larger. The main feedstock of plastic products (oil, gas, and other fossil fuels) is heavily subsidized for domestic plastic producers, as is energy derived from these sources—the energy that plastic producers use in their manu- facturing and delivery activities. Hence, as chapter 3 argued regarding air Blue Seas: Freeing the Seas from Plastics 209 pollution, fossil fuel subsidy reforms are also called for to address plastic pollution in the Middle East and North Africa’s seas. Such reforms must be meticulously planned and should engage the full spectrum of stake- holders. However, they are critically necessary to decrease the produc- tion and consumption of plastics and hence the amount of plastics that flows into the region’s seas. The Need for New, Collaborative Frameworks The new set of solutions will require new frameworks of collaboration. Municipalities, ministries, corporations, and society play important roles in tackling plastic pollution. In the Middle East and North Africa, low collaboration between the public and private sectors, on the one hand, and high collaboration between companies, on the other hand, limit the wide implementation of circular-economy models. The Thailand Public- Private Partnership for Plastic and Waste Management, the Malaysia Sustainable Plastic Alliance, and the Philippine Alliance for Recycling and Materials Sustainability are examples of public-private collaboration platforms that merit examination and emulation (World Bank 2021a, 2021b, 2021c). To summarize the central finding of this part of the report: Any and all efforts to stem the flow of plastic pollution into the region’s seas merit consideration. However, the only way to comprehensively minimize this flow and its inevitable damages to the region’s environment, natural resources, residents’ health, and economies is through the implementa- tion of a circular-economy approach to the use of plastics. One Must Measure What One Would Manage: The Sources of Marine Plastics Effective policy making for reducing marine plastics requires an under- standing of the causes and sources of plastic pollution. Policy makers need to know (a) the sources of the plastics (including the cities, localities, or river basins that are the major contributors); (b) the contributing sectors (tourism, fisheries, manufacturing, retail, and so forth); (c) the estimated quantities; and (d) the waste-disposal practices that contribute to the problem. Other key information includes the composition of plastics that enter the seas (such as bags, cups, packaging, and fishnets, among others) to design counteracting policies accordingly. Sources and Sectors The sources of plastic pollution in the Middle East and North Africa are not assessed thoroughly regarding which cities or sectors and types of plastics contribute most to the problem. Evidence suggests that the vast 210 Blue Skies, Blue Seas majority of plastics that enter the seas are in the form of macroplastics and SUPs. Fragmentation of macroplastics into microplastics makes this category a large contributor to the high levels of microplastics in the Mediterranean Sea. About 80 percent of marine-plastic litter comes from land-based sources and 20 percent from marine sources (such as fishing, aquacul- ture, and maritime transport) (Li et al. 2016). As for economic sectors, tourism, recreational marine activities, and shipping discharge the most plastics directly into the marine environment and along shorelines (UNEP 2015). In addition, waste management and disposal practices are important sources of leakage: municipal uncollected waste contrib- uted 61 percent of total leakage in 2016 and waste mismanagement, 39 percent (Pew Charitable Trusts and SYSTEMIQ 2020). Macroplastics make up the biggest portion (around 94 percent) of all plastic items entering the Mediterranean every year (Boucher and Billard 2020). Of all plastic products, SUPs and packaging material contribute the most to plastic leakage into the ocean. Global estimates of land-based sources report that about 80 percent of this plastic leakage comes from single-use packaging material. Of that, 51 percent consists of flexible monomaterials (for example, plastic and flow wrap, light grocery bags, food containers); 29 percent from multilayers and multimaterial films (for example, condiment and shampoo single- portion items, chips, and sweets packets); and 20 percent from rigid materials (for example, bottles, pens, toys, combs, toothbrushes, durable goods, and buckets) (Pew Charitable Trusts and SYSTEMIQ 2020). SUPs are by far the biggest contributors to marine-plastic leak- age, mainly because of their low recyclability, low value, and limited reusability. The level of microplastics in the oceans is expected to increase, although the sources that contribute to the leakage in the Middle East and North Africa are not well understood, and more research is needed. Microplastics account for about 6 percent of the current total flow of plastics into the Mediterranean. Four sources of microplastics account for almost all of it: dust from tire abrasion (53 percent), textiles (33 percent), microbeads in personal care products such as cosmet- ics (12 percent), and production pellets (2 percent) released into the environment as microsized particles (usually less than 5 millimeters) (Boucher and Billard 2020). The current mass of microplastics in the oceans and on beaches is expected to double by 2050 from 2020 levels as current material left in the environment slowly degrades into smaller pieces (Lebreton, Egger, and Slat 2019). Globally, 15–31 percent of microplastics come from a primary source, with the rest resulting from degraded macroplastics (Boucher and Friot 2017). Blue Seas: Freeing the Seas from Plastics 211 Maghreb Models for Emulation At the subregional level, some Maghreb countries are making notable progress in identifying the sources of plastic leakage and hot spots that require urgent action. For example, Morocco, in response to its concerns about marine pollution and building on previous initiatives, is taking initial steps toward formulating a national strategy for a “plastic-free coastline” (littoral sans plastique, or LISP) dedicated to the reduction of marine pollution and plastic leakage and to the promotion of circular- economy models and blue-economy models in coastal regions. In 2019, with the support of the World Bank, Morocco undertook a comprehensive analysis to identify hot spots and anticipate main areas of intervention and challenges. (Box 4.2 presents more details about the study methodology.) Through a participatory approach in 17 coastal towns involving all stakeholders at the local level and different methods of research (collecting primary data, using mapping tools, and reviewing the literature to identify plastic-leakage hot spots), the analysis showed the following (World Bank 2021d): • The main sources of plastic leakage in those areas were high levels of household and plastic waste in highly populated coastal regions; waste mismanagement (in some towns, as much as 60 percent); and high quantities of plastic waste generated by tourism, agriculture, and marine activities. BOX 4.2 Identifying the Hot Spots of Marine-Plastic Debris along Morocco’s Coasts Identifying hot spots of marine-plastic leak- plastic pollution and key to formulating rel- age is a core element of policy action evant interventions and policy instruments. because it answers questions such as “where The government of Morocco—with to act” (in which location or which indus- the help of the World Bank—has been trial or economic sector); “what is leaking” identifying the main waste-leakage points (which polymer, application, or both poly- or hot spot areas related to marine- mer and application are most commonly plastic pollution. The study is based on found); and “why is there leaking” (which guidance developed by the United Nations cultural behaviors and context features, such Environment Programme (UNEP), as a lack of garbage bins, are driving the International Union for Conservation of leakage). Locating hot spots is a technical Nature (IUCN), and the public-private Life task that is key to identifying the sources of Cycle Initiative to identify plastic-leakage (continued) 212 Blue Skies, Blue Seas BOX 4.2 Identifying the Hot Spots of Marine-Plastic Debris along Morocco’s Coasts (Continued) hot spots, assess their impacts along the waste in open dump sites; (e) amount of plas- plastic value chain, and prioritize actions. tic waste delivered to the sea; (f) amount of This methodology is based on global studies marine waste; (g) percentage of plastics in that identify different land-based activities total marine waste; and (h) percentage of as the main sources of marine pollution medical, sanitary, or both medical and sani- delivered to the sea by various transport tary waste in total marine waste. factors. For each of these categories, several The methodology includes two major indicators were used and rated on a scale of components: 1 to 4, where higher values indicate worse performance. The maximum score for a • Quantifying marine waste: The goal is to given site is 124, while the minimum is 31, identify and quantify the most harmful with higher values signaling that these sites plastic items (or group of items) and activ- are faring worse and should be treated as hot ities that are sources of marine debris spots. The results of this analysis showed (for instance, fishing, tourism, and recre- that ational activities as well as SUPs, bottles, plastic bags, and so forth). • Hot Spot Priority (A) is the city of Casa- blanca, which had the highest possible • Identifying pressure points: To determine score (124), mainly because of population the coastal hot spots of plastic leakage, a pressure and waste disposal in the set of indicators and criteria are applied to Mediouna open dump site; and evaluate different categories of pressures (such as coastal populations, waste man- • Hot Spots Priority (B) are the cities of agement practices, economic activities, Kenitra (with a score of 105 out of 124 and environmental status). possible points), Tangier (94), and T etouan (83) because of their high popu- The results of these studies helped to iden- lations and the delivery of waste to tify 17 coastal cities within the two Moroccan landfills. seafronts (5 Mediterranean cities and 12 Atlantic cities), based on a set of indicators Other cities such as Nador, Rabat-Salé, relating to (a) population size; (b) rate of Mohammadia, El Jadida, Safi, Agadir or Sidi mismanaged waste; (c) amount of plastic Ifni are classified as relatively sensitive areas waste not collected; (d) amount of plastic with scores ranging from 58 to 82. Source: World Bank 2021d. Blue Seas: Freeing the Seas from Plastics 213 • Plastic debris represents between 40 and 90 percent of total waste in the seabed. • Recreational activities generate most of the plastic waste (58 percent), followed by port activities (30 percent) and agriculture (12 percent). • In addition, 98 percent of the plastic waste stemming from recreational activities consists of SUPs (such as bottles, food packaging, plastic cups, and food containers). Similarly, Tunisia is carrying out initial studies to develop a policy frame- work for a coastal strategy free of plastic pollution. As part of the collabo- ration between the Tunisian government and the World Bank for the development of a circular and blue economy strategy, a series of studies addressing marine-plastic debris have been carried out with the aim of developing an integrated strategy and series of policy measures to reduce plastic pollution. These studies revealed the following (World Bank 2021f): • The concentration of Tunisia’s population along the coastlines (72 percent of the total population in 13 coastal governorates) is a major driver of waste generation and plastic pollution. • The portion of beach waste that is plastic ranges from 48 percent at Sfax Beach to 78 percent in places like the Kerkennah Islands (where there is high fishing activity and no sustainable waste management regulations for this type of activity). • Products such as bottle caps, food packaging, plastic bags, and other plastic fragments measuring up to 2.5 centimeters were the top five products found in the fieldwork. The same study found that no specific system has been put in place by Tunisia’s tourist municipalities for integrated waste management, espe- cially for hotels and restaurants. A detailed value-chain analysis of the plastic and packaging sector sheds light on the current sector bottlenecks as well as the preliminary impacts of COVID-19 on the surge of SUPs (World Bank 2021f). In conclusion, plastic pollution is the result of failures across the entire plastic life cycle, including production, consumption, waste management, and secondary markets for recycled material. Identifying the sources of plastic pollution is a complex issue that involves multiple sources and actors. Addressing plastic pollution for blue and clean seas will require all stakeholders across the value chain to join forces and intervene at various levels to obtain results in the short run. Efforts to properly identify the hot spots, sources, and causes of marine-plastic pollution in the Middle East and North Africa should be initiated and supported at all levels. 214 Blue Skies, Blue Seas These efforts are a necessary prerequisite to formulate appropriate, location-specific policy responses to rein in the plastic tide that is enter- ing the region’s seas. Comprehensive Policy Options for Reducing Marine-Plastic Pollution Reducing marine-plastic pollution in the Middle East and North Africa’s seas should be part of a comprehensive circular-economy approach. This is crucial to protect the natural resources upon which the region’s residents (like the residents of all countries) depend, while reducing pollution’s damages to human health and to countries’ economies. Effectively reducing the region’s marine-plastic pollution is one component of a five-component approach, here called the “3 R’s + 2”: Reduce, Reuse, Recycle + Appropriate SWM (including cleanups) of plastics that cannot be reused or recycled + Awareness-raising of all stakeholders. The latter “stakeholders” must include the general population to foster understanding of, and support for, the benefits of a circular-economy approach. Crucially, reducing marine-plastic pollution requires the improve- ment of SWM systems to stop leakage. This is an important comple- ment to the other policies, helping producers rethink how plastics are produced and how new consumption models for reuse, recycling, and cleanup methods are needed to restore currently degraded ecosystems. This section of the report discusses a wider set of solutions for addressing these issues, highlights best practices in the region and other countries, and begins with a look at the circular-economy approach. The Circular-Economy Approach to Plastics The circular economy proposes a set of principles to (a) synergistically improve—at the local, country, and global levels—the environment, human health, and economic development by (b) minimizing the wasting of resources and the pollution of the environment through a comprehen- sive approach of reducing, reusing, and recycling materials. In other words, the circular economy is an economic system in which materials constantly flow around a closed-loop system rather than being used once and then discarded (figure 4.10). In the case of plastics, circular concept means retaining the value of plas- tics in the economy without harmful leakage into the natural environment. Blue Seas: Freeing the Seas from Plastics 215 FIGURE 4.10 A Circular Economy for Plastics Raw materials / finite Production using resources / virgin plastics recycled and recovered materials A circular economy Resource recovery and waste Consumption management and reuse Source: Adapted from Defra and EA 2018. Permission for adaptation granted under the terms of UK Open Government Licence v3.0. Unlike the traditional “take-make-dispose” linear economy, the circular economy proposes a fundamental rethinking of the product life cycle— improving recycling, promoting reuse, creating a market for recycled mate- rials, and redesigning products with solutions that keep products’ end of life in mind. The circular-economy approach includes as a core principle the collaborative engagement of all relevant stakeholders along the value chain (EMAF 2017; Geissdoerfer et al. 2017). Implementing this framework, although simple conceptually, requires that various challenges be addressed in the way plastics are consumed, produced, and discarded. In today’s economy, plastic packaging repre- sents 40 percent of the total production of plastic products and contrib- utes 80 percent of plastic leakage into the ocean (Pew Charitable Trusts and SYSTEMIQ 2020). Plastic packaging is typically single-use, ubiq- uitous, and extremely difficult to recycle. The global negative impacts of plastic packaging alone are estimated at US$40 billion annually and expected to increase significantly if production continues to increase under a business-as-usual scenario (EMAF 2016). To overcome these challenges would bring great benefits. Increasing the life-span of products and materials through circular-economy princi- ples dramatically reduces the production of those items, the consumption of raw materials, and the emissions of greenhouse gases from unnecessary 216 Blue Skies, Blue Seas production, consumption, and waste disposal processes. At least as importantly, a circular-economy approach protects and enhances human health and advances economic development while protecting the envi- ronment—sea, land, and air—locally and globally. Spheres of Implementation This section of the report lays out a range of solutions for implementing the principles of a circular economy to free the Middle East and North Africa’s seas from plastic pollution—in general, by improving SWM, incentivizing recycling markets, reducing plastic consumption, redesign- ing production processes, and reimagining business models to stimulate reuse. For this new approach to manufacturing, consumption, and d isposal of plastics to work, new policies and initiatives are required in several spheres of activity: • Improving SWM. Plastic, depending on how it is handled, can pose a significant threat to climate and environment when it reaches the waste phase of its life cycle. Because plastics continue to pollute long after their use, disposal mechanisms must be improved, as for other types of waste. • Incentivizing recycling markets. By incentivizing the development and organization of recycling markets to provide clean, high-quality mate- rials for product manufacturing, private sector participation can be encouraged through better transparency, technology, and informa- tion. Increasing plastic recycling to mitigate environmental challenges can unlock new economic growth opportunities for plastic-producing economies in the Middle East and North Africa. • Reducing plastic consumption. Initiatives to ban or reduce nonessential plastics such as SUPs are intended to reduce unnecessary and excessive use of materials through changes in products, processes, and behaviors in consumption patterns. • Redesigning production processes and material recirculation. New policies, technologies, and processes are necessary to ensure that products are designed and managed throughout their life cycles for reuse and con- tinuous recycling instead of for discarding and disposal. These pro- cesses include setting and reinforcing standards to regulate waste—such as extended producer responsibility (EPR) schemes—and improving the design and end-of-life handling of products. • Reimagining new business models. To stimulate reuse, current strategies for material recirculation face systemic challenges. By themselves, pledges to increase recycling rates, even dramatically, are unlikely to effectively address the local, national, or global environmental, human Blue Seas: Freeing the Seas from Plastics 217 health, economic—or climate—impacts of growing plastic produc- tion. Accompanying, or providing the context for, such pledges must be governmentally enforced incentives and corresponding disincen- tives applied all along the chain from plastic producers to distributors to end users. Potential Rewards from a Circular Economy The rise in population in recent decades, the increased exploitation of resources, and generalized open-dumping practices are the main driv- ers of waste management problems in the Middle East and North Africa. However, the treatment-capacity deficiency can be addressed in a way that creates new revenue streams, fully using waste as a resource. In this way, among others, the circular-economy approach presents an opportunity—and a cost-effective one—to rethink some of the region’s current waste policies. For example, GCC countries could save US$138 billion by 2030 through an integral circular-economy approach, according to a report for the 2019 World Government Summit (Anouti et al. 2019). Another important expected outcome from the transition to a circular economy is its net beneficial effect on job creation. Between 2012 and 2018, the number of jobs linked to the circular economy in the European Union (EU) grew by 5 percent to around 4 million (EC 2020). With adequate policies and regulatory frameworks to support the develop- ment of, and transition to, new industries, governments can ensure that the circular economy creates more and better jobs, including jobs for vulnerable groups. Notably, the circular-economy approach creates more jobs than waste management systems that primarily burn or bury waste. Recycling can create over 50 times as many jobs as landfills and incinerators, repair systems can create 200 times as many, and remanufacturing 30 times as many (Ribeiro-Broomhead and Tangri 2021). The remanufacturing sec- tor is highly promising, because materials like baled paper and aluminum are used as feedstock for the manufacture of consumer goods. Although these calculations can vary depending on the material in question and how individual facilitates operate, the results show that recycling, repair, and reuse can create thousands of new jobs across cities of different incomes and contexts. The same study estimates that the job growth in the high-recovery-rate scenario is particularly dramatic in cities with low current recycling rates. Cities with lower collection rates could see even greater jobs gains as municipal waste services are expanded. Anywhere from 10 to 60 jobs can be created in composting, recycling, and remanu- facturing for every job lost in disposal methods (Ribeiro-Broomhead and Tangri 2021). 218 Blue Skies, Blue Seas A recent report from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) about the potential of circular economy in Indonesia shows important opportunities not only for the plastics sector but also for five economic sectors that represent one-third of the country’s gross domestic product and employed more than 43 million people in 2019: food and beverages, textiles, construction, wholesale and retail trade, and electrical and electronic equipment (Bappenas and UNDP 2021). A circular-economy approach would reduce waste in each s ector by 18–52 percent, reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 126 million tons and water use by 6.3 billion cubic meters, and create 4.4 million net cumulative jobs by 2030 (Bappenas and UNDP 2021). By creating new opportunities, making supply chains more resilient, and providing business opportunities—especially for small and medium enterprises (SMEs)—a circular economy can be a key economic component in the region’s economic recovery plans. For the Middle East and North Africa region, adopting a circular- economy approach to the design, manufacture, use, and recycling of plastics (reduce, recycle, reuse) can help decouple plastics from fossil fuel usage, promote economic recovery in a post–COVID-19 context, and support a transition to a more sustainable development pathway. Morocco, Tunisia, and the city of Dubai in the United Arab Emirates are already taking steps to optimize resources and minimize waste by engag- ing key industry actors, understanding the sources of pollution, and identifying the locales and sectors that contribute most to the problem (as noted earlier in the “Maghreb Models for Emulation” subsection and below in the “Policies to Recycle Plastic Waste” subsection). Experience shows that there is no single solution for managing plastic pollution of the oceans and that governments, in conjunction with the private sector and NGOs, will have to use an integrated approach with new ways to deliver the important benefits of today’s plastics. Among these efforts, the SwitchMed project aims to promote the circular economy in countries along the Mediterranean basin, supporting indus- try trainings, awareness programs, and legislative procedures in several of the region’s economies, including Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia, and West Bank and Gaza.12 Policies to Manage Plastic Pollution Using a Circular-Economy Approach Economies differ in their levels of plastic pollution, sources infrastructure, and approaches to managing waste. Designing effective interventions will need to take into account each economy’s policy contexts, governance struc- tures, economic resources, and stakeholder participation levels and will need to develop cost-benefit analyses for the options being considered. Blue Seas: Freeing the Seas from Plastics 219 Based on the Middle East and North Africa’s current plastic- pollution situation and drawing on sources in the literature, meas- ures to improve the circularity of plastics fall into five broad types of instruments (figure 4.11): FIGURE 4.11 Circular Economy Solutions around Consumption, Production, and Management of Plastic Waste, by Instrument Type Consumption Information Education provision on campaigns sustainable Incentives to purchases “no-plastics” choice Bans (such as plastic bags, SUP) Substitutes with Subsidies greener materials Taxes on consumers Reusable and refill (such as plastic bags, SUP) alternatives Taxes on producers and importers Waste-collection fees Deposit refund schemes Subsidies and rewards Reuse schemes to improve collection Remanufacturing and Recycling mandates rental systems (EPR) systems Extension of products, lifetime Information campaigns for appropriate New alternative materials disposal and source separation (biobased polymers, compostable packaging, biodegradable starch blends) Clear labeling standards Reusable packaging New product design to increase recycling content Private sector recycling, reuse, and repair goals Marine spatial planning Sustainable tourism Green public ntio (willingness to pay) procurement commitments cdu Pr o Priced-based instruments Regulatory instruments Behavioral approaches Technological innovation approaches Voluntary approaches Source: Adapted from Defra and EA 2018. Permission for adaptation granted under the terms of UK Open Government Licence v3.0. Note: EPR = extended producer responsibility; SUP = single-use plastic. nt mee ag ma n ste Wa 220 Blue Skies, Blue Seas • Price-based instruments, which can discourage the use of plastic goods or inputs by changing their relative price and help to collect the neces- sary revenues for waste management and subsidize mechanisms to improve collection; • Regulatory instruments, which directly determine waste levels by ban- ning certain products, encouraging recycling, and addressing barriers to promote higher sustainability standards in product manufacturing processes; • Behavioral approaches, which use people’s social preferences to influ- ence behavior (possibly encouraged by NGOs and the private sector) in favor of lower plastic use and improved waste management practices; • Technological innovation instruments, which can change the amount and types of plastics produced and influence the recyclability and disposal of products—particularly if private sector investment in research and development (R&D) in this area is incentivized by policies that encour- age changes in consumer preferences, spur innovation, and promote and guide investment flows; and • Voluntary approaches, which consumer groups and firms can adopt in response to government policies—or in the absence of such policies, in anticipation of upcoming government regulations—either to support the optimal use of limited resources or for some of the other aforemen- tioned motivations. Policies to Stop the Leakage: Improve SWM Systems In the Middle East and North Africa, inadequate SWM is the main cul- prit for the large volume of plastics entering the seas. In the Maghreb and the Mashreq subregions, around 60 percent of waste is mismanaged— that is, burned, disposed of as litter, or left in uncontrolled dump sites (figure 4.7). These deficiencies in management lead to leakage of plastic waste into the environment, with substantial amounts ending up in marine spaces. Along with the 3 R’s (reduce, reuse, and recycle), ways to address poor SWM are among the most important measures to lower the flow of plastics into the region’s seas. Growth in Waste Generation Total waste generation in the region varies considerably from one econ- omy to another and is expected to double by 2050 from 129 million tons to 255 million tons. This figure will likely increase in the short run as the population continues to urbanize and as incomes rise (Kaza et al. 2018). Many of the largest waste generators are high-income countries, mainly Blue Seas: Freeing the Seas from Plastics 221 FIGURE 4.12 Average Daily Waste Generation Per Capita, Globally and in the Middle East and North Africa, by Economy and Subregion, 2016 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 rld ica req reb CC ain lt a tes ai t r bia ta an ya raq . r r a a b I o n za ria an ep siaa e d i ep . ic o . i o lf h h G ra w c ra m i n G g r R n R ub oc Re p ut W h A as o t a g Ba h M Lmi Ku i A Q O eb a l o u c r , nd A J rab T mi e p o en Dj ib or M M b E ud L k aa a t, A R M N r S n p , Is la b a mr Ye an d A a t ted st B gy ranE I ian A Ea s i e r e U n W Sy l iddM Source: Based on Kaza et al. 2018. Note: Orange, yellow, and gray bars designate three groups of economies within the Middle East and North Africa, respectively, as follows: The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) includes Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The Maghreb subregion includes Algeria, Libya, Malta, Morocco, and Tunisia. The Mashreq subregion includes Djibouti, the Arab Republic of Egypt, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, the Syrian Arab Republic, West Bank and Gaza, and the Republic of Yemen. kg = kilograms. those in the GCC subregion (figure 4.12). Residents in these countries are generating substantially more waste than the global average, while the Maghreb and Mashreq subregions, as well as the Middle East and North Africa overall, are roughly on par. On average, plastics constitute around 12 percent of the region’s total waste, a share expected to grow with rising incomes (Kaza et al. 2018)— implying that poor SWM overall has adverse repercussions on the flow of plastics into the region’s seas. Furthermore, waste generation in the region’s cities, especially in the city-states of the GCC, is significantly higher (1.38 kg per person per day) than the region’s average (0.81 kg per person per day) (Kaza et al. 2018). Inefficiencies, Disparities in Urban and Rural Waste Collection In some of the region’s economies, waste collection coverage is relatively comprehensive. In some of those for which data are available, waste Average daily waste per capita (kg) 222 Blue Skies, Blue Seas collection in the urban areas reached 100 percent or nearly 100 percent in 2016 (Kaza et al. 2018). Notable exceptions are Egypt (57.5 percent), Tunisia (80 percent), and Morocco (85 percent) (figure 4.13, panel a). However, rural coverage is generally lower than in the urban areas of most economies. On this score, Egypt and Tunisia again report the lowest levels, with rural coverage of 15 percent and 5 percent, respec- tively (figure 4.13, panel b). It should also be noted that waste collection statistics are not available for some of the poorest countries in the region, including Djibouti and the Republic of Yemen. Waste collection services in these countries, as well as in those rocked by recent conflicts, can be expected to be rather low. Even though formal waste collection rates in the Middle East and North Africa seem to be relatively high, operational inefficiencies and outdated equipment result in leakage and littering. Collection is pre- dominantly done door-to-door by trucks, and equipment in the waste treatment process is often outdated, bringing about operational inef- ficiencies. For instance, trucks used for collection in Cairo are typically old and do not have sufficient capacity for the waste they are supposed FIGURE 4.13 Shares of Urban and Rural Populations Covered by Waste Collection Services in Selected Middle East and North Africa Economies, 2016 a. Urban waste collection coverage b. Rural waste collection coverage 100 100 75 75 50 50 25 25 0 0 ria p. p. an n co ar ia lic ia za ria p. p. an n are e e i a lic ia za lg b R Ric or d no c at s o t s J ba o or Q Ar ab ub ni a e e b i a A a p Tu d G lge R R rd an Qab c o ra b r m i b A pu un d G , A la L e M di e n A ra m J e i e T n t Is auS rab R a , A la L d R a p , nk t Is Sa u y n A r ab nk Eg Ira n t B a yp n, a s Eg Ira an A st Ba yri iS W e r Sy W e Source: Based on Kaza et al. 2018. Note: Only countries and economies for which data were available are shown. Figures for West Bank and Gaza refer to the share of households covered by waste-collection services, as opposed to the share of total population covered (as presented for the other locations). Share of total urban population (%) Share of total rural population (%) Blue Seas: Freeing the Seas from Plastics 223 to collect (Mostafa 2020). This leads them to overflow and litter their routes with trash during transportation. Furthermore, lack of coordina- tion about vehicle routes and collection frequency makes it difficult to strike a balance between fulfilling waste collection requirements and the number of visits by waste collection vehicles (Mostafa 2020). Mismanaged Waste Disposal Much of the waste collected in the Middle East and North Africa ends up in open dumps. Several of the region’s economies have such high rates of inadequately managed waste not because it isn’t collected but because of its treatment or disposal. In 2016, the share of waste disposed of in open dump sites in the Middle East and North Africa was 53 percent (Kaza et al. 2018), but this share varied widely across countries (see lighter blue bars in figure 4.14). Furthermore, even in the region’s high-income countries, most landfills are not engineered landfills and effectively operate as dumps FIGURE 4.14 Share of Waste Going into Open Dumps or Unspecified Landfills in the Middle East and North Africa, by Economy, 2016 100 75 50 25 0 ria in p. p.a e e q n i t n e r R R Ira da wa no al ta cc o an r iaata b bl ic isi a ate s az a p. lg ah r o m a n Re A B rab i c m J o Ku eb a M or O Q i A r u r G , L M d Re p Tu i A a E m an d en pt , , Is l Sa u rab a b k em gy an n A A r an Y E Ir Ba ed st Sy ri Un it We Unspecified landfills Open dumps Source: Based on Kaza et al. 2018. Note: “Unspecified” landfills are ambiguous about their ability to prevent waste leakage. Kaza et al. (2018) report treatment separately for controlled, sanitary, and unspecified landfills. Significant amounts of waste disposed of in “unspecified” facilities are mismanaged, especially in low- and middle-income countries (Law et al. 2020). Data for Djibouti and Libya are not available. Share of total waste (%) 224 Blue Skies, Blue Seas (Kaza et al. 2018). For instance, GCC countries such as Bahrain and Qatar exhibit comparatively high rates of waste disposal in “unspeci- fied” or unengineered landfills (see dark blue bars in figure 4.14). The category of “unspecified” landfills is ambiguous about their potential for proper waste management; it is assumed that waste disposed of in such facilities is partly mismanaged, especially in low- and middle-income countries (Law et al. 2020). However, use of controlled landfills has been growing in recent years. For example, Morocco has increased disposal into controlled landfills from 10 percent in 2008 to 53 percent in 2016 (Kaza et al. 2018). Data on disposal into controlled and sanitary landfills for other economies are as follows: Algeria, 91 percent; Saudi Arabia, 85 percent; Lebanon, 48 percent; and West Bank and Gaza, 33 percent. Disposing of collected waste in dump sites and uncontrolled landfills undermines achievements stemming from proper waste collection. Such disposal, indicating poor operational practices, makes it easier for plastic waste to flow into waterways and reach marine areas. For example, even though collection rates in the Philippines are high (around 84 percent nationwide), around 17 percent of the collected plastic waste still ends up in the marine ecosystem (Engle, Stuchtey, and Vanthournout 2016). This ocean-leakage rate is even higher for uncollected waste, of which around 31 percent ends up in the sea. The False Economy of Mismanaged Waste Open dumping is prevalent in many areas because it is much cheaper than the alternatives. Setting up open dumps requires virtually no starting capital, while the costs of establishing landfills are higher but still comparatively lower than other alternatives (Kaza et al. 2018). The direct operating costs arising from open dumps for low-income and lower-middle-income countries are about four to five times cheaper than the costs of controlled landfilling (table 4.2). The comparatively high costs of recycling—including its typically higher collection and transfer costs (Boskovic et al. 2016)—contribute to low rates of adoption in the region despite recycling’s many environ- mental advantages. Strained budgets may restrict the ability to pursue ambitious recycling programs right away; however, the leakage of plastic waste could still be reduced by ensuring that waste is disposed of in prop- erly controlled landfills and comparable disposal sites. However, the cost of openly dumped waste exceeds the cost of proper disposal many times over if social and environmental costs are considered. Even though open dumping is about four to five times cheaper than proper landfilling, after considering the negative externali- ties, open dumping is actually more expensive. Blue Seas: Freeing the Seas from Plastics 225 TABLE 4.2 Costs of Waste Treatment, by Type and Country Income Level, 2016 US$ per ton Country income group Waste management type Low income Lower-middle income Upper-middle income High income Collection and transfer 20–50 30–75 50–100 90–200 Controlled landfill to sanitary landfill 10–20 15–40 20–65 40–100 Open dumping 2–8 3–10 n.a. n.a. Recycling 0–25 5–30 5–50 30–80 Composting 5–30 10–40 20–75 35–90 Source: Kaza et al. 2018. Note: Sample is global. Country income groups are according to World Bank classifications. n.a. = not applicable. Incorporating social and environmental costs is a complex task and depends on many location-specific characteristics. The leakage of solid waste such as plastics from open dumps into the environment, including into marine spaces, is one important side of the coin in this respect. Another important issue concerns leachate—liquid that passes through untreated waste and ends up in surface water and groundwater, containing large amounts of harmful dissolved and suspended waste matter, leading to health as well as environmental damages and associ- ated costs. Furthermore, waste at uncontrolled open dumps is often burned, either intentionally to reduce waste or spontaneously, increas- ing air pollution associated with severe health effects (Cogut 2016). Internalizing these external costs of waste (including plastics) and its improper disposal renders controlled-disposal alternatives superior from an economic perspective in the Middle East and North Africa (Loukil and Rouached 2012). Put simply, leaving waste uncollected and hence completely unman- aged carries costs that typically exceed the costs of properly managing it severalfold—often 5-fold to 10-fold (UNEP 2015). A ton of uncollected waste carries an average loss of US$375, based on the economic losses in tourism, fisheries, and health care.13 Comparing this to the costs of proper waste collection and treatment puts the high costs of unmanaged waste in the spotlight—and highlights that the most effective solution to the plastic pollution of the Middle East and North Africa’s seas, beaches, and coastal areas is a circular-economy approach: it minimizes the amounts and sources of pollutants while simultaneously increasing benefits to residents’ well-being, enterprises’ opportunities to develop and serve new market segments, and furthering the development of local and national economies. 226 Blue Skies, Blue Seas Impediments to Adequate SWM A major impediment to SWM performance in the Middle East and North Africa is the highly centralized waste management in many of the region’s economies, which hampers the capabilities of local, decentralized service providers. Even though municipalities are the main executive bodies in waste management, they often have (a) little autonomy to deal with local waste management needs, and (b) insufficient financial support for those tasks (Mahjoub, Jemai, and Haddaoui 2020). For example, these authors find, high centralization and the prevalent tendency for a top-down approach is a major hindrance to efficient waste management in Tunisia. In Lebanon, around 80 percent of rural households surveyed were willing to support local, decentralized waste management perceived to be more efficient in providing waste management services. On average, resi- dents’ willingness to pay was US$48 per year, representing a 30 percent increase over current council taxes (Al Ahad et al. 2020). However, this study also identified a lack of financial and technical resources as well as an insufficient amount of well-suited land as major obstacles to introduc- ing such a decentralized scheme. Municipalities often have insufficient funds for SWM. Especially among low- and middle-income economies in the Middle East and North Africa there is lack of financing as well as technical capacities to set up an SWM system and other issues are perceived as more pressing (Mostafa 2020). The costs for the collection of waste are often borne by municipalities, whose cost recovery for waste collection, transfer, treat- ment and disposal, which requires coordination and planning by the local government to establish a fee-collection system, is so limited that they have outdated equipment. For example, recovered costs account for only 15 percent of the total SWM costs in the Greater Tunis metropolitan area (Mahjoub, Jemai, and Haddaoui 2020). Typically, municipalities finance these costs through local tax collection, as central governments are often outsourcing the responsibility for waste management to local governments without providing adequate funding; however, these taxes are often not exclusively allocated to waste management, and diversion to other causes is common. In Egypt, waste management fees had been incorporated into electricity bills, but this practice was recently discon- tinued because of the lack of allocations to waste management (Aly 2020; Egypt Today 2020). Green Bonds and Other Ways Forward Issuing green bonds. Although limited financing for SWM systems is an obstacle for many Middle East and North Africa governments, innova- tive approaches could be a way forward. In other parts of the world, issuing green bonds to finance waste management systems has been an Blue Seas: Freeing the Seas from Plastics 227 established practice, and municipalities in emerging countries such as India are increasingly adopting them as well. Egypt is the first country in the Middle East and North Africa to move in this direction by recently issuing sovereign green bonds to increase affordable financing for envi- ronmental projects, including pollution management (box 4.3). BOX 4.3 Green Bond Financing for SWM Systems Since 2007, when the European Investment Indian state of Gujarat raised over US$26 Bank issued the first green bond, the green million in January 2019 for “green projects” bonds market has become a booming sector by issuing municipal bonds. It intends to for financing green infrastructure projects, use the funds for several projects, including growing at an annual rate of 94 percent. In waste management investments, and this the United States, issuing bonds to finance was the fifth time the municipality raised the establishment and operation of waste funds by issuing such bonds. In the 2018/19 management systems has a long history, fiscal year, eight local governments in India with the establishment of tax-exempt private floated municipal bonds worth more than activity bonds (PABs) in 1968. These PABs US$400 million (Verma 2020). can be issued by private companies to raise In September 2020, the Arab Republic capital for a variety of infrastructure pro- of Egypt became the first country in the jects, including solid waste disposal facilities Middle East and North Africa to issue and projects like airport or port construc- green bonds as part of a set of projects tion (Ruth 2017). Recent issuances for solid for renewable energy and pollution waste management (SWM) in the United management. The issuance floated US$750 States included the September 2020 place- million worth of bonds, which were five ment of bonds worth US$40 million for times oversubscribed. The projects financed Castella Waste Systems Inc., which provides are part of a five-year plan to satisfy growing SWM services in the northeastern United demand from investors and to increase States, and the issuance of bonds worth affordable financing in these sectors in an US$150 million for Waste Management innovative way (Barbuscia and Ramnarayan Inc. by the California Municipal Finance 2020). Egypt has a portfolio of eligible green Authority (CMFA 2020; CTBH 2020). projects worth US$1.9 billion, of which Internationally, including in low- and almost 40 percent is aimed at pollution middle-income countries, the issuance reduction and control. Financial experts of bonds by municipalities or related expect green bonds in Egypt to become corporations for infrastructure investments is widely popular following a global trend; a more recent phenomenon, but the issuance such bonds will have a positive impact on of green bonds is growing. For example, the Egypt’s budget and increase the volume of Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation in the foreign investment (Abu Zaid 2020). 228 Blue Skies, Blue Seas Investing in disposal infrastructure. However they are financed, investments in formal waste disposal and establishment of safe disposal sites are critical to address plastic pollution and prevent leakage. Formal disposal is very low in the Middle East and North Africa region. Increasing the share of formal waste disposal to 50 percent by 2040, largely by replacing dump sites with managed landfills, can reduce vast amounts of plastic leakage into the ocean (Pew Charitable Trusts and SYSTEMIQ 2020). Improving the efficiency and convenience of disposal, scaling up waste separation at the source, and improving the logistics and economic viability of whole waste management system are critical to ensure the environmental and economic benefits of clean urban and rural places. Upgrading capacity and equipment. Upgrading existing equipment in the collection process and investing in more efficient pickup services are also important. Given the obsolescence of large parts of the region’s equipment and collection fleet, investments in these areas are imperative, especially given the region’s growing population and increasing waste generation. The adoption of proper capacity plans, collection frequency, and vehicle-routing plans for existing fleets may reduce leakage while simultaneously reducing total vehicle mileage, traffic congestion, and hence carbon emissions caused by trucks picking up waste (Mostafa 2020). Studies show that direct dumping of postcollected waste could be reduced by 80 percent by combining technological innovation and stronger regulatory control. For instance, the movement of waste col- lection vehicles could be monitored through telemetry, which enables cost-effective vehicle tracking. This technology has already been applied in some cities in low- and middle-income countries (Pew Charitable Trusts and SYSTEMIQ 2020). Integrating SWM systems. Moving toward an integrated solid waste management system that integrates the “3 R’s” is key to decreasing plastic leakage into the seas. A strategy focusing only on collection and disposal, with an emphasis on safe and controlled disposal methods, is likely insufficient by itself to solve marine-plastic pollution. As cities and countries continue to grow, plastic waste will worsen as it grows faster than the ability to expand waste infrastructure. The impacts of fast growth of waste due to the increased consump- tion of disposable products and medical waste can be seen in the waste generation associated with COVID-19. Some countries lack a special infrastructure for hazardous and medical waste, which ends up mixed with household waste that is burned or deposited in landfills, increasing the risk of environmental contamination. Reducing the amount of waste in the system and replacing plastics with other materials is essential to reduce marine pollution and decrease plastics’ impacts on human health. Blue Seas: Freeing the Seas from Plastics 229 Employing new business models to drive up formal collection rates— including new models for waste aggregation and decentralization and management of waste—can bring many benefits in new jobs and more investment. By combining technology, an adequate business environment, and incentives, waste management can become a source of income gen- eration. Heading toward such a system may be a steep climb for many economies in the Middle East and North Africa, but it would increase their resilience to future challenges associated with growing populations and increased waste generation. Improving the circularity of waste in general, and of plastics in particular, requires a rethinking of current practices; however, a circular-economy approach will yield a broad spec- trum of health and economic benefits at the local and national levels, as well as, of course, advancing the blueing of the region’s skies and seas. The alternatives to a circular-economy approach—a business-as-usual or piecemeal approach—will only lead to additional pollution, additional morbidity and mortality, and increased constraints on local and national economic development. Policies to Reduce Production and Consumption of Plastics Solving the plastic trap requires reducing consumption and production levels. It requires rethinking to cut production and consumption in ways that will nudge plastic-related industries to rethink business models to still thrive economically and boost new market opportunities. Many large private sector companies, including ones in the Middle East and North Africa, are embracing the opportunities for a circular economy and a dapting to consumer demands by making important commitments to increase recyclable materials, improve capacities, and eliminate the stream of plastics to landfills and open dumps that pollute rivers and oceans. The following subsections discuss pathways for such rethinking. The Low Price of Plastics Relative to Green Alternatives In the Middle East and North Africa, prices for SUPs are significantly lower than greener alternatives, according to a desk assessment of prices on the websites of major supermarkets and online retailers in selected countries (figure 4.15).14 The prices discussed here for SUP products and their comparable green alternatives refer to a single unit of each good obtainable in supermarkets and the like.15 In the countries under consideration, plastic cups cost one-third, or less, what comparable biodegradable cups cost. Similarly, for single-use alternative cutlery (such as spoons, forks, and knives), prices are on aver- age four times higher, and they can be substantially higher than that in 230 Blue Skies, Blue Seas FIGURE 4.15 Price Comparison of Selected SUP Items and Green Alternatives in the Middle East and North Africa, 2020 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Plastic Green Plastic Green Plastic Green Cups Cutlery Straws Source: Desk assessments of prices shown on major supermarkets and online retail websites. Note: The figure shows end-consumer prices per unit in US cents, converted using exchange rates as of December 2, 2020. Plastic products refer to single-use plastic (SUP) items. Green products refer to items made of biodegradable, environmentally friendly resources. Countries consulted were those for which comparable pricing data were available: the Arab Republic of Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, and all of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates). Prices were standardized to represent a single unit of each good; however, where batch sizes varied, some variation was unavoidable, which could distort per unit prices. Purchases from wholesale distributors by commercial clients, such as restaurants or catering services, likely involve different prices (and price discrepancies) and are not reflected in this analysis. some countries, such as Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates. Roughly the same price comparisons hold for plastic straws and their alternatives made of paper or other biodegradable materials, again with intercountry variations. A major reason for the large discrepancies between the prices of plas- tic products and their greener alternatives is the heavy subsidization of input prices for petrochemical companies. The Middle East and North Africa’s oil-exporting countries use the petrochemical industry to diver- sify their economies, and it is an important part of those economies, with a large part of demand coming from the packaging industry (box 4.4). The main inputs for the petrochemical industry—energy and raw materials—are heavily subsidized in the Middle East and North Africa (Fattouh and El-Katiri 2013). Such subsidies favor plastic-producing industries in several ways. First, these subsidies favor plastics by fixing prices on fossil fuels, which are the main inputs for petrochemicals. These implicit subsidies depress the price of plastic feedstock to artificially low levels (Skovgaard and van Asselt 2019; Tobin 2012). Price (US cents) Blue Seas: Freeing the Seas from Plastics 231 BOX 4.4 A Snapshot of the Petrochemical Industry in the Middle East and North Africa The petrochemical industry is an impor- of polymers produced in the GCC were tant economic sector in Middle East and used in the packaging industry (GPCA North Africa economies, especially in the 2016). The low costs of plastics and plastics’ Middle East. To shield themselves from high preservation abilities make plastics the volatility of oil prices and diversify their widely used in the packaging industry. industry away from their heavy dependence Environmentally less harmful packaging on oil and gas exports, several of the region’s materials, such as biodegradable and bio- economies have made large investments in based plastics, could serve as alternatives in the petrochemical industry, with plastic pro- this industry segment. However, considering duction being the dominant part (GPCA only their prices on a weight basis, fossil- 2014). The sector has seen immense growth based plastics again emerge as a clear winner, in recent decades and continues to attract costing between one-third and one-tenth of major investments, with almost US$100 bil- their biodegradable alternatives (van den lion of planned projects for 2020–24. The Oever et al. 2017). Arab Republic of Egypt leads the list of These alternatives’ significant additional committed investments in petrochemicals, expenses relative to customary plastics followed by the Islamic Republic of Iran and are a major detriment to their broader Saudi Arabia (Benali and Al-Ashmawy 2020). adoption in the Middle East and North In the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Africa, based on economic incentives alone countries, the polymer industry alone (Market Data Forecast 2021). Nevertheless, supported over 150,000 jobs in 2016, with several of the region’s economies, especially 40,000 employees directly employed in the in the GCC—following increased public sector (GPCA 2016). Polymer production awareness about the problem of single-use in the GCC grew by a compounded annual plastics (SUPs)—have banned businesses’ growth rate of 11 percent between 2006 and use and production of common plastic 2016 and is expected to grow in the future bags, mandating their replacement with by around 5 percent (GPCA 2016, 2019). bags made of these alternative materials. Within the GCC, Saudi Arabia is by far the Such moves can also enhance a country’s largest producer of plastic resins, capturing reputation for environmental friendliness. around two-thirds of the GCC’s overall And an enhanced “green reputation” acts production (APICORP 2016). Globally, as an additional incentive for purchases by the petrochemical industry is expected to environmentally aware consumers. account for most of the growth in oil Foreign consumers’ increased demand demand by the end of the current decade for environmentally friendly options will (Benali and Al-Ashmawy 2020). affect plastic-producing companies in the In the GCC, the consumer packaging short term. The advent of more and more industry accounts for a major part of the initiatives to phase out SUPs in some demand for polymers. Around 44 percent major export markets of the plastic industry (continued) 232 Blue Skies, Blue Seas BOX 4.4 A Snapshot of the Petrochemical Industry in the Middle East and North Africa (Continued) (including China, India, Italy, and Turkey) already been acknowledged by the Gulf could have severe repercussions on the Petrochemicals & Chemicals Association demand for the GCC’s plastics, and exports (GPCA) as necessitating innovation in may be reduced substantially (Al Sarihi product development and consideration 2019). This will in turn hamper future sales of products’ life cycle and ultimate revenues and put pressure on the sector’s disposition (Al-Sadoun 2019). For high- profitability. To meet these domestic and income countries such as those in the international shifts in demand, plastic GCC, fostering further innovation in these producers and the packaging industry have sectors is crucial for reducing plastic waste, been active in developing and producing which could also be driven by removing greener alternatives to their traditional subsidies and by pressing petrochemical products and making their products more companies to invest more in research efficient in terms of their life cycles and and development (R&D) for alternative ultimate disposition (GPCA 2018, 2019). products that are less harmful to the With momentum gaining for the environment. Here again, the principles EU’s circular-economy legislation,a and practices of a circular-economy the need for adaptation by GCC’s approach would beneficially serve multiple petrochemical sector—for which Europe purposes for producers, consumers, and represents a major export market—has their local and national economies. a. “First Circular Economy Action Plan,” European Commission: https://ec.europa.eu/environment /topics/circular-economy/first-circular-economy-action-plan_en. Second, these subsidies also favor plastics because the petrochemi- cal industry and plastic production are highly electricity-intensive (and simultaneously energy-inefficient) industries (Schlüter and Rosano 2016). The production of electricity uses fossil fuels to a large degree; consequently, the electricity industry is a main beneficiary of subsidized fossil fuel prices, and those cost benefits transfer to plastic producers (El-Katiri and Fattouh 2017). Hence, subsidies for fossil fuels favor plastic production by reducing the prices of its inputs and lowering their production costs (Moerenhout and Irschlinger 2020). In 2015, around three-fourths of plastic consump- tion in the Middle East was of items produced in that region, which indicates that low input prices are passed on to end products and hence end users (EUROMAP 2016).16 In many Middle East and North Africa economies, large subsidies benefit the petrochemical sector by keeping its input prices fixed at Blue Seas: Freeing the Seas from Plastics 233 artificially low levels. A prime example for the practice of input subsidi- zation is the Saudi Arabian petrochemical giant Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC), one of the world’s largest producers of plastic raw materials. Despite some reforms, SABIC has still been able to buy its main inputs at large discounts from Saudi Aramco in recent years, paying a fixed price of US$1.75 per million Btu (British thermal unit) for ethane, US$1.25 per million Btu for natural gas, and propane for only 80 percent of its market value.17 Saudi Aramco in turn receives large subsidies from the Saudi government for supplying these and other products such as gasoline at lower prices to the domestic market—subsidies that totalled over US$40 billion in 2018. In 2020, Aramco acquired a 70 percent stake in SABIC, and the payment of equalization fees to Aramco for supplying cheaper feedstock to SABIC came under scrutiny (Bakr 2020). Ethane represents the main input for petrochemicals and hence plastic produc- tion in the Middle East and North Africa, while naphtha is the main input for Asian plastic producers. Artificially depressing input prices for plastic production in this way contributes heavily to the low prices of virgin plastic and in turn to the discrepancies between plastic products and their greener alternatives. Additionally, the high subsidization of petrochemicals and the plastic production put strains on public budgets, which are already under pressure. The region’s low prices for fossil fuels make plastic feedstock prices and their contribution to overall plastic costs the lowest worldwide. Despite the reforms implemented in major producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, key input prices for petrochemicals, like those for ethane, remain significantly below international benchmarks. Feedstock costs are the most influential factor for determining regional production advantages (IEA 2018). In the Middle East and North Africa, the ethane- based petrochemicals (from which plastic products are made) account for around one-fourth to one-third of total costs, while comparable feedstock accounts for about one-half of total costs in Europe and the United States. For naphtha, another major feedstock for plastic produc- tion next to ethane, price discrepancies are not as pronounced. These feedstock prices drive the overall production costs of petrochemicals, and hence plastic production, and give petrochemicals in the Middle East and North Africa a significant cost advantage. This can also be seen in the price of ethylene (a main input for PET production) (Rubeis et al. 2016). The Middle East (which accounts for the lion’s share of petrochemicals and plastic production in the region) has a distinct price advantage, espe- cially for ethane-based ethylene. Plastics’ low input prices are an impediment to the broader adop- tion of green alternatives. These low prices, by artificially driving down the prices of plastics in the Middle East and North Africa, undermine 234 Blue Skies, Blue Seas the potential emergence of greener alternatives to plastics. By granting the petrochemical industry such low input prices, at least partly through subsidies for feedstock, the region’s petrochemical sector can produce plastics at low costs and pass them on to the prices of plastic products. Plastic’s low prices explain, at least partly, its widespread adoption and contribute to consumers’ unwillingness to switch to environmentally less harmful alternatives. Measures to reduce plastic consumption should include pricing as an important consideration. However, it is also important to recognize that such measures could, similarly to fossil fuel price increases, lead to affordability issues for low-income households. It is therefore neces- sary to accompany the pricing reforms discussed below with support measures for these households as well as communications and awareness campaigns to minimize public discontent. Taxes on Consumers and Producers to Reduce Plastic Consumption Taxes on plastic material and on certain uses of plastics (such as bags and other forms of SUPs) can help reduce their unsustainable consumption. Well-designed taxes can lead to the use of alternatives that are more durable, sustainable, or both—for instance, redesigned plastic options that are more readily recyclable or compostable, or more durable plastic or nonplastic alternatives manufactured from wood, metal, or glass. The most widely used taxes for reducing plastic pollution take several forms: levies on plastic bags, taxes and charges on packaging and plastic products (such as kitchenware), and weight-based fees for plastics being part of a product (OECD 2015). Common ways of taxing consumers and produc- ers to reduce plastic consumption are noted below. Taxes on consumers (such as taxes on SUPs). Consumer fees on plastic bags have become a popular measure to reduce consumption. Worldwide, 30 countries charge consumers fees for plastic bags at the national level, and 27 countries tax the manufacture and production of plastic bags (UNEP 2018b). The fees vary by country, often based on the thickness and material content of the plastic bags regulated. In the Middle East and North Africa, Jordan and Tunisia tax the manufacture, production, and import of plastic bags; more recently, the United Arab Emirates imposed a consumer fee on plastic bags (UNEP 2018b). Many cases worldwide show success in implementing plastic fees. Ireland introduced a tax per bag in 2002, resulting in a gradual 90 percent reduction in the use of plastic bags (Convery, McDonnell, and Ferreira 2007). Thus, marine-plastic litter, which had represented 5 percent of the national composition of total marine litter before the Blue Seas: Freeing the Seas from Plastics 235 adoption of the levy, fell by around 22 percent by 2004. The success factors were as follows: • Setting the tax, following a willingness-to-pay survey for plastic bags, that was six times higher than the average maximum willingness to pay; • Extensive consultation with all stakeholders (the public and retail industry); and • Accompanying information campaigns that explained the policy objec- tives and tax-revenue destinations, paving the way for widespread awareness and buy-in. In Scotland in 2014, a mandatory charge was introduced on all types of retail bags, and that charge contributed to reducing carrier bag use by about 80 percent across the main retail chains in its first year of applica- tion (McElearney and Warmington 2015). In Portugal, a plastic-bag tax was implemented in 2015 and consequently reduced consumption by 74 percent (Martinho, Balaia, and Pires 2017). The effectiveness of taxes on plastics varies according to policy con- text and enforcement levels. Because most of these policies are quite recent, it is too early to draw robust conclusions about the environmental impact that taxes and levies have had. In 50 percent of cases, information is lacking partly because some countries have adopted them only recently and partially because monitoring is inadequate. In countries that do have data, about 30 percent have registered drastic drops in the consumption of plastic bags within the first year. The remaining 20 percent of countries have reported little or no change, mainly for two reasons: a lack of enforcement and a lack of affordable alternatives. The latter has led to cases of smuggling and the rise of black markets for plastic bags or the use of thicker plastic bags that are not covered by the bans (UNEP 2018b). For example, the South African government implemented a tax on plastic bags, but the strategy failed because the levy was too low and customers ended up paying the tax, creating a steady increase in demand for plastic bags (Lam, Ramanathan, and Carbery 2018). Although plastic shopping bags account for only a small proportion of the plastics used in packaging, research shows they are a major source of the plastic pollution that ends up in the oceans, causing high rates of animal deaths and microplastic pollution. Imposing fees on plastic items can both disincentivize their use and provide revenue for governments or funds for environmental purposes. Morocco, for example, distrib- utes the proceeds to environmental funds (Powell 2018). In Ireland, the tax on plastic bags not only reduced their use by about 90 percent but also raised tax revenues of around €12 million to €14 million that 236 Blue Skies, Blue Seas were earmarked for an environment fund (Convery, McDonnell, and Ferrerira 2007). Recently, the United Arab Emirates announced plans to make the country free of SUPs by gradually introducing fees on them, eventually ending in a ban (box 4.5). For effective taxation, a clear target and good communication are important principles. A clear target should define what message the price signals are intended to send and who the intended recipient is for that message. If the objective is to reduce the amount of plastic that ends up in the environment, then it is necessary to understand what behavior change by whom will be necessary to accomplish that. For example, is the primary goal to change how products are made, or is it to alter price signals that influence what consumers buy and use? Good communica- tion to relevant stakeholders is also essential. The political reality of taxation is that it creates winners and losers, and new taxes are often not popular—although plastic-bag charges have received broad support in most countries. Clear communication about what the purpose of the tax BOX 4.5 Eliminating SUPs in the United Arab Emirates After a study identified the most common The policy instruments include fees on products that cause the largest amount of items having clear alternatives available marine waste, the United Arab Emirates and a ban on their free distribution to the announced a plan to become single-use end consumer by, for example, fast-food plastic (SUP)-free. The country uses 11 outlets and caterers. With the proceeds billion plastic bags annually, equivalent to from these fees, an environment fund is 1,184 plastic bags per person per year com- being established to finance environmental pared with a global average of 307 plastic activities and campaigns. These regulations bags per person per year (Ahmad 2020). In and initiatives will be put into action 2020, the Abu Dhabi emirate (of the United gradually, with the goal of a 100 percent Arab Emirates) also announced its inten- reduction in the use of SUP bags and a tion to declare Abu Dhabi free of SUPs by significant reduction in the use of other the end of 2021.a The 16 prioritized items SUP items. Further goals include a such as plastic bags, cutlery, cups, plastic 50 percent collection rate of plastic bottles bottles, and abandoned fishing gear account by the end of 2021 and a ban on SUPs in for around 70 percent of total marine litter. the operations of government entities in Such items will be subject to increasingly Abu Dhabi.b stricter regulations. a. The regulations outlined target the consumption of SUP items in Abu Dhabi. The policy frame- work explicitly states, however, that it will not affect the export of such items. b. Emirate of Abu Dhabi. 2020. Blue Seas: Freeing the Seas from Plastics 237 is, whom it is being levied on, and why are essential characteristics of good tax design (Powell 2018). Producer taxes (on manufacturing, exports, and imports). Taxes directed at producers aim to discourage the production of plastics, espe- cially SUPs. A range of different product taxes could be used for environ- mental policy purposes. For example, 29 countries globally have enacted some type of tax, mostly on SUPs, either as a special environmental tax or fee or in the form of higher excise taxes (UNEP 2018b). These taxes aim to reduce SUPs as a category of waste, to better manage plastic waste, or to increase the rate of postconsumer recycling. In the Middle East and North Africa, Morocco and Tunisia have introduced taxes on only the manufacturing and import of plastic products (Framework Law on the Environment and Sustainable Development, Morocco; and Ecotaxes Finance Law, Tunisia (boxes 4.6 and 4.7, respectively). Some European BOX 4.6 Morocco: Implementing an Ecotax on Plastic Production In recent decades, Morocco passed leg- urban centers by 2020 and rehabilitate and islation and implemented policies in its shut down all illegal dump sites by 2020. It Framework Law on the Environment and also set a target of achieving a recovery or Sustainable Development to position itself recycling rate of 20 percent by 2022. as a rising climate leader and drive the In 2012, Morocco’s Department of the improvement of waste collection and treat- Environment prepared a business plan for ment systems in line with its environmental development of the plastic-recycling sector. and climate goals. However, the lack of It estimated funding needs of DH 165 appropriate institutional structures, par- million annually. To ensure this financing, ticularly at the regional level, and limited a 1.5 percent ad valorem plastic ecotax was funding have been barriers to successful introduced in 2013 under the Framework implementation. Skills and expertise are Act 99/12 on the sale, factory output, and insufficient in many cities, clear responsi- importation of plastics and articles falling bilities still need to be defined, and monitor- under chapter 39 of the Harmonized ing and control systems are still inadequate. System (HS). In 2016, this rate was reduced In 2008, Morocco launched a national to 1 percent. The tax revenues contributed municipal solid waste management to subsidizing recycling stations, financing (SWM) program (the National Program them, or both; developing the plastic- of Management of Household Waste recycling sector; and integrating the [PNDM]) with the goal of achieving a informal sector. collection rate of 85 percent by 2016 and Despite these much-needed policies, the 100 percent by 2030. The program aimed results achieved have been very modest. to create controlled landfills to serve all Collection rates and deposits in controlled (continued) 238 Blue Skies, Blue Seas BOX 4.6 Morocco: Implementing an Ecotax on Plastic Production (Continued) landfills improved from 10 percent in 2008 at the local level for implementing the to 32 percent in 2015. Fourteen controlled initiatives was also a constraint. Overall, landfills were completed, but as of 2020 an systematic results on the effectiveness of the estimated 300 uncontrolled dumps still exist ecotax are scarce and there has been little around the country that should be closed documentation. and rehabilitated. In 2014, the methods for For the future, this tax will probably redeploying the ecotax were the subject of require more reviews, because a more a governance study, in close consultation recent study showed that the plastic sector with the stakeholders concerned, which is expected to continue to increase in showed that the activities supported to date Morocco, reaching 15 million tons, with a were limited to those relating to setting turnover of around DH 32 billion by 2030. up sorting centers at controlled landfills, The automotive, aeronautics, and electric plastic-bag collection campaigns, and and electronics sectors will continue to be awareness campaigns. The lack of capacities the main customers of this industry. Source: World Bank 2021d. BOX 4.7 Tunisia: The ECOLEF Program to Increase Recycling The ECOLEF program was the first pro- The ECOLEF program has improved gram to manage consumer packaging in the market for collecting postconsumer Africa and the Middle East and North packaging, improved recycling rate, and Africa. Tunisia’s Ministry of Environment created thousands of recycling jobs. The launched ECOLEF as a public-private part- system encourages individual and informal nership in 1997. The ECOLEF program collectors to gather used plastics and metals developed a national system for recovery and deliver the materials to ECOLEF and recycling postconsumer packaging, pri- collection centers. In return, waste marily focused on plastic waste. It is admin- collectors are paid based on the type and istered by the National Agency for Waste quantity of packaging collected. Those who Management (ANGed) in cooperation with participate in the ANGed program and sell private companies and governed by several their materials to an ECOLEF collection decrees that specify the methods required center receive a subsidized price instead of for collecting and managing bags, plastic the local market prices. bottles, and other high-density polyethylene Since its launch, the system has ena- (PEHD) plastics. bled the regulation of the sector and (continued) Blue Seas: Freeing the Seas from Plastics 239 BOX 4.7 Tunisia: The ECOLEF Program to Increase Recycling (Continued) facilitated creation of specialized companies— the exports of PET waste. Those exports currently comprising 180 microcollection increased by 96 percent between 2001 and companies c ontracted by ANGed, 80 micro- 2013, averaging US$3 million in value. recycling companies, and 45 collection and However, since 2014, and following the storage points and c enters. It has also created China plastic-import ban in 2017, Tunisia’s an estimated 18,000 jobs and collected more plastic-waste exports have been declining than 150,000 tons of plastic-packaging waste. significantly (figure B4.7.1 ). For the recycling of plastics, polyethylene After the Tunisian revolution (or Jasmine terephthalate (PET)—generally used to make Revolution) in 2011, waste management in bottles—is collected, cleaned, ground up, urban and rural areas deteriorated. This had and then exported to other countries. Other a significant negative impact and disrupted plastics like PEHD waste (such as plugs and the main phases of the cycle from waste rigid boxes) are collected, cleaned, crushed, collection to recycling. The ECOLEF and processed into raw materials. system has faced several difficulties, Because of the international context resulting in decreased quantities collected at the time the program was created, it and reduced numbers of active recyclers in also had a significant impact on increasing the system. FIGURE B4.7.1 PET Waste Exports in Tunisia, 2000–18 7,000 3.5 6,000 3.0 5,000 2.5 4,000 2.0 3,000 1.5 2,000 1.0 1,000 0.5 0 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Exports Value Source: United Nations Comtrade database. Note: PET = polyethylene terephthalate. Source: World Bank 2021f. Volume of PET exports (tons) Value of PET exports (US$, millions) 240 Blue Skies, Blue Seas countries have decreased taxes on “clean” goods to lower their final costs and incentivize their use (for example, compostable or bioplastic bags, coffee cups, and cutlery) (OECD 2015). In the case of taxes, as throughout this analysis of plastic pollution of the Middle East and North Africa’s seas, the principles and practices of a circular-economy approach provide the best—and, indeed, the only fully workable—means to address this problem, because this approach (a) reduces pollution by reducing the use and manufacture of the pollutant (in this case, plastics); (b) reduces the impacts of that pollution on residents’ physical and economic well-being; and (c) simultaneously incentivizes the invention and development of new products and processes, which fosters employment and economic growth. Taxes can be used to reduce waste management costs by decreasing the amount of waste packaging and end-of-life products being discarded. They can also discourage the sale of certain products (such as plastic bottles and food containers) that involve no recyclable packaging content and have high end-of-life waste management costs as well as to encour- age consumers and producers to switch to alternatives. However, other instruments can be considered as “producer taxes” such as deposit-refund schemes (DRSs) and extended producer responsibility (EPR) schemes that target aspects of waste management and recycling rates that can- not be easily addressed through taxes levied at the point of product sale (OECD 2015). Policies to Address the Issue of Plastics’ Superior Performance Plastics have important characteristics that greener alternatives often cannot compete with yet. In addition to their low prices (discussed in the previous section), plastic packaging preserves and protects food longer, consequently diminishing food waste—which is a key issue globally, including in the Middle East and North Africa and especially in GCC countries.18 Plastic packaging is also lightweight and flexible. Alternatives such as glass, aluminum, paper, and other more innovative materials (such as starch-based products) usually weigh more or are not as resilient and long-lived as plastics. Their higher weights incur higher transportation costs, both in a strictly economic sense and in an environmental sense by using more fuel, which further incentivizes the use of plastics for packag- ing. In the case of beverages, transporting them in plastic bottles instead of glass bottles uses around 40 percent less fuel (Pew Charitable Trusts and SYSTEMIQ 2020). Some of plastics’ positive properties must be emulated by their inno- vative alternatives to make alternatives more competitive. Alternatives that are environmentally less harmful face an uphill battle emulating Blue Seas: Freeing the Seas from Plastics 241 these properties, while at the same time having to be price competitive. Achieving this requires concerted efforts supporting R&D on green alternatives and the diffusion of successful technologies. Some plastics (such as SUPs) are more problematic than others; there- fore, it is important to identify which products might require greater attention than others. Plastic film and multilayer packaging have low rates of recycling and high rates of leakage into the environment, par- ticularly in low- and middle-income countries (Pew Charitable Trusts and SYSTEMIQ 2020), which merits concerted attention regarding alternatives. It is important to differentiate between options and examine on a case-by-case basis whether substitutes should be subsidized. Promote R&D and Technological Diffusion of Alternatives Materials (paper, coated paper, and similar items that can be composted) are available to replace most of the packaging and flexible plastics, par- ticularly in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. Recyclable paper is widespread globally now. For example, 85 percent of paper and cardboard is recycled, and this material is undergoing rapid innovation, leading to better barrier properties for food conservation and cost/weight performance (Pew Charitable Trusts and SYSTEMIQ 2020).19 Coating is important to increase barrier properties, particularly for food applica- tions. Materials that can be composted are available, and new material formats that are under development (including nonplastic and composta- ble plastic materials) should meet relevant local composting standards.20 Because local conditions and the trade-offs of using the substitute materials play such important roles, key stakeholders in the Middle East and North Africa (local authorities, the private sector, and manufactur- ers) must work together to evaluate any proposed substitutions by con- ducting a full-cycle analysis to move forward. Studies by neutral bodies according to recognized standards make it easier to delineate the path toward decreasing plastic use while avoiding unintended consequences. Variables such as transportation; costs of food-production changes (switching to other materials involves new production and end-of-life disposal costs); new waste streams (coatings for certain papers or com- postable materials might require specific recyclable technologies); and health impacts (food safety and chemical release of certain recyclable paper can lead to certain health risks) are some issues needing in-depth study when analyzing substitute materials (Pew Charitable Trusts and SYSTEMIQ 2020). The private sector in GCC countries is already developing a renewable feedstock alternative that, with a conducive policy environ- ment, could be scaled up in the region. In Saudi Arabia, SABIC has d eveloped a polycarbonate (PC) based on certified renewable feedstock. 242 Blue Skies, Blue Seas This solution reduces CO2 emissions by up to 50 percent and fos- sil depletion by up to 35 percent during production, compared with fossil-based PC production. This is a product of collaboration with the European value chain to develop more environmentally friendly products given the important role of the circular-economy agenda in this region. Spanish Petroleum Company (Cepsa), a Madrid-based multinational oil and gas company, has been a strategic value chain partner in this project, supporting SABIC through the production of renewables inputs. In addition, SABIC has formed downstream collabo- rations with other multinationals such as Unilever, Tupperware Brands, Vinventions, and Walki Group to develop new circular polymers from mixed plastic waste. Win-win partnerships have proven strategic potential to grow the alternatives-to-plastics sector, and government policies should encour- age these circular-economy approaches to reducing, reusing, recycling— and replacing and reformulating—plastics. SABIC’s new material is currently produced in Geleen, the Netherlands, and is not yet available globally. This certified PC resin may be used for applications in all market segments, such as automotive, consumer, electronics, electrical, construction, and health care (SABIC 2019). High-income countries in the Middle East and North Africa could promote innovation and awareness of green alternatives through sub- sidies for companies conducting R&D on alternatives to plastics. Such subsidies could come in the form of tax breaks, lower import duties for these products, or simply increased public investment in companies whose R&D focuses on alternatives to plastics or on products with increased recyclable content in packaging. Such subsidies for green alternatives could incentivize producers and retailers to develop and offer a broader palette of more sustainable prod- ucts while also stimulating demand for greener products by consumers through lower prices and higher awareness. Often, businesses trying to invent or promote alternatives to plastics have difficulty borrowing on capital markets and face higher costs of capital (Barrowclough and Birkbeck 2020). Thus, introducing new and easier ways for such com- panies to attract investments and financing could play an important role in supporting viable alternatives to plastics (Barrowclough and Kozul- Wright 2018). With the market for green products in the Middle East and North Africa still in its infancy, supporting this market is crucial to advance the use of such alternatives in the region. Some of these compa- nies are already setting up and expanding their businesses in the region (box 4.8). Reducing the volume of plastics being used and manufac- tured as well as replacing plastics require significant innovation, Blue Seas: Freeing the Seas from Plastics 243 BOX 4.8 Emerging Alternatives to SUPs in the Middle East and North Africa Two companies with their regional head- one of the country’s first companies with a quarters in the United Arab Emirates are strong commitment to reducing plastics in at the forefront of providing green alterna- everyday lives.b Its most famous product, tives to single-use plastic (SUP) items in the the cassava bag, is made of a cheap and Middle East and North Africa. MyEarth common root vegetable and dissolves is driving innovation with its starch-based, within a period of months, both at land and fully compostable product lines.a These at sea. Other products include sugarcane- include biodegradable bags, straws, and fiber-based houseware, cornstarch straws, food boxes. Its products try to bridge the and wooden cutlery. Several companies gap between versatility and affordability have switched to Avani Middle East’s and offer eco-friendly, economically viable products; for example, the global retailer alternatives to plastic items. MyEarth has Virgin Megastores introduced the cassava established partnerships with several com- bag in all its stores in the United Arab panies and is planning to expand within the Emirates.c region and beyond. These examples showcase the potential A second company, Avani Middle East, for green alternatives to plastic items in the established in 2014 as a social service region and highlight the importance of a enterprise in Bali, launched its operations level playing field to expand the use of green in the United Arab Emirates in 2017 as alternatives. a. See the MyEarth website: https://www.myearth.ae/. b. See the Avani website: https://www.avanime.eco/. c. https://avanime.eco/blog/our-news-1/post/virgin-mega-store-to-roll-out-avani-s-bio-cassava-bag-1. incentives, and well-funded research and data development about waste management. Today, plastic manufacturing is classified as a medium-intensity R&D industry, and the waste management sec- tor is classified as low-intensity R&D (Pew Charitable Trusts and SYSTEMIQ 2020). If these industries transition (while keeping production costs low) toward more competitive market dynamics wherein consumer demand shifts toward more environmentally friendly products, then rapid innovation is mandatory to keep up with these shifts. Developing smart policies and regulatory frame- works, alternative business models, new materials, and more effective collection and recycling systems is critical to reduce plastic leakage into the oceans and make the most of changing market demands. Circular-economy approaches provide the best—indeed the most effective and efficient—means to address these circumstances. 244 Blue Skies, Blue Seas Bans on SUPs It may take time for the prices and the performance of alternatives to plastics to become competitive with plastics. However, plastic-polluted seas are a pressing problem now that must be addressed as soon as possi- ble. Hence, banning SUP items may be a necessary step to stem the plas- tic tide in the short term. In the Middle East and North Africa, only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have national bans on SUPs. Saudi Arabia bans the manufacture, advertisement, sale, import, and use of polypropylene (PP) and polyethylene (PE) plastics intended for one-time use, includ- ing personal care products; plastic bags intended for one-time use; and disposable food-service products such as spoons, plates, and cups.21 The United Arab Emirates bans the manufacture and import of nonbio- degradable semirigid plastic packaging for food, magazines, consumer durables, garbage bags, shrink-wrap, pallet wrap, and other disposables.22 However, many of the region’s economies have some sort of SUP-bag ban in place, in line with the global trend. Globally, most countries have adopted some form of legislation banning plastic bags—127 countries by 2018 (UNEP 2018b). These regulations span a range of interven- tions to reduce the manufacture, distribution, use, and trade of plastic bags, but the most common is the ban on free retail distribution, which 91 countries have adopted. In the Middle East and North Africa, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and the Republic of Yemen have adopted the approach of regulating market entry, manufacture or production, importation, and retail distribution of SUP bags. Other economies in the region have opted for partial bans or restrictions, mostly in the form of thickness requirements—for example, Tunisia bans bags thinner than 40 microns; the Republic of Yemen, 60; Jordan, 200; and Saudi Arabia, 250, while most European countries accept 50 microns—or they have imposed pro- duction-volume limits. Morocco banned the production, sale, and use of nonbiodegradable plastic bags in 2015. Although the use of virgin-plastic bags dropped, illegal production continues, and data on the growth in use of biodegradable bags are not available (Dalberg Advisors 2019b). Egypt has put in place several retail initiatives to boost awareness, but there is no overarching framework and insufficient technical capacity to replace the use of plastic bags. Consumption is not controlled, and it averaged 124 bags per capita in 2015, equivalent to 12 billion per year (CEDARE 2020). A National Initiative for Reduction of Plastic Bags Consumption was launched in 2017, which led to the decree issued by the Governorates of the Red Sea and South Sinai in 2019 to restrict the single use of plastic bags. Table 4.3 summarizes the plastic-bag regula- tions in Middle East and North Africa countries. Blue Seas: Freeing the Seas from Plastics 245 TABLE 4.3 Plastic-Bag Regulations in Middle East and North Africa Countries, 2018 Country Restrictions on plastic bags Algeria Import restrictions on plastic bags Bahrain Regulates disposal only at national level (solid waste/litter regulation) Djibouti Ban on nonbiodegradable plastic bags Iraq No law found Jordan Ban on plastic bags with thickness of 200 microns or less Kuwait No law found Lebanon Ban on local production, importation, marketing, and use of plastic-packaging bags Morocco Prohibition of the manufacture, import, export, marketing, and use of plastic bags Oman Regulates disposal only at national level (solid waste/litter regulation) Qatar Regulates disposal only at national level (solid waste/litter regulation) Disposable plastic products made of polypropylene and polyethylene with film thickness equal to or less than Saudi Arabia 250 microns that are generally used for packaging, such as carrier bags, wraps, and similar applications must be of the oxo-biodegradable type and bear the prescribed logo Syrian Arab Republic No law found Ban on production, import, marketing, possession, and distribution of bags with a thickness of less than 40 microns Tunisia or bags of low volumes with a capacity of less than 30 liters except for authorized biodegradable bags Manufacturers and suppliers of plastic bags must meet prescribed standards for oxo-degradable bags and United Arab Emirates distribute only complying products Yemen, Rep. Ban on manufacture of plastic bags below 60 microns and import of plastic bags below 70 microns Source: Adapted from UNEP 2018b. Globally, certain other restrictions address the materials used to manufacture plastic bags, with the goal of phasing out nonbiodegrada- ble plastic bags or to incentivize the production, import, or use of bags that are biodegradable, compostable, or both. For example, two countries require a certain type of recycled material: Austria requires plastic bags to have a certain amount (by weight) of materials that can be recycled. Italy bans nonbiodegradable bags and requires that bags intended to carry food products consist of at least 30 percent recycled plastics. The EU has also taken some important steps toward reducing the amount of littered plastic waste on its beaches and in the surround- ing seas (box 4.9). A ban on plastic bags might include exemptions for specific uses. The exemptions can relate to certain activities and certain products. At the global level, 25 countries expressly provide exemptions in their bans, including for the handling and transport of perishable and fresh food items, carrying small retail items, scientific or medical research use, and waste storage and disposal. In the Middle East and North Africa, Saudi Arabia has exempted primary packaging for fresh, perish- able, and other loose food as well as pharmaceutical products (UNEP 2018b). 246 Blue Skies, Blue Seas BOX 4.9 The EU Plan to Reduce SUP In Europe, around 25.8 million tons of consumption-reduction targets, reusable plastic waste are generated annually, and alternatives to SUP products available at less than 30 percent is collected or recy- the point of sale to the final consumer, and cled (EC 2018). The impacts of plastic economic instruments such as extra charges litter (especially single-use and dispos- for SUP products at the point of sale to able items) are growing each year as more the final consumer. The measures may plastic litter accumulates on European vary depending on products’ environmental beaches, in oceans, and in the overall impact over their life cycle, including when environment. they become waste. The first “European Strategy for Plastics Among the main takeaways of the 2019 in a Circular Economy” was adopted in directive are the following: January 2018, followed by the June 2019 • An EU-wide ban on SUP straws, plates, approval of Directive (EU) 2019/904 to cutlery, beverage stirrers, balloon sticks, prevent and reduce the impact of single-use oxo-degradable plastics, and expanded plastic (SUP) products on the environment polystyrene food containers, beverage (particularly the marine environment) and containers, and beverage cups by on human health as well as to promote mid-2021 the transition to a circular economy with innovative, sustainable business models. • Extended producer responsibility (EPR) The SUP directive was initially proposed to schemes covering the costs of collection, tackle the SUP items most frequently found transport, and treatment; cleanup of on beaches as well as lost and abandoned litter and awareness-raising measures fishing gear. Through this directive, member regarding food containers, packets, and states are expected to take the necessary wrappers, cups for beverages, beverage measures to achieve an ambitious, sustained containers with a capacity of up to reduction in the consumption of SUPs, in 3 liters, lightweight plastic carrier bags, line with the European Union’s (EU) waste and fishing gear by December 31, 2024, policy and leading to a substantial reduction and for packets and wrappers by January in consumption trends. Those measures 5, 2023 must contain measurable quantitative goals • EPR schemes for the costs of cleanup of for a set of most-used products (described litter, awareness-raising measures, and below), according to a regional study. data gathering and reporting for balloons By July 3, 2021, member states submitted and wet wipes by December 31, 2024, and descriptions of the measures they have for tobacco products by January 5, 2023 adopted, notified the Commission, and made the descriptions publicly available. • A significant, sustained reduction in the These measures included national consumption of food c ontainers and (continued) Blue Seas: Freeing the Seas from Plastics 247 BOX 4.9 The EU Plan to Reduce SUP (Continued) cups for beverages by 2026, with the • A requirement for all beverage bottles possibility for EU countries to adopt with a capacity of up to 3 liters to national consumption-reduction targets, ○ Have tethered caps by 2024; and the p romotion of reusable alternatives, the implementation of economic ○ Incorporate 25 percent recycled plastic i nstruments (such as deposit-refund content by 2025 (polyethylene schemes [DRSs]), or market restrictions t erephthalate [PET] bottles) and (completely or for only certain applica- 30 percent by 2030 for all types of tions) on food c ontainers and cups. beverage bottles. Source: European Commission, https://ec.europa.eu/environment/strategy/plastics-strategy_en. Policies to Reuse Plastic Products In the linear-economy model, consumers are often encouraged to replace a damaged item with a new one, and the Middle East and North Africa currently lacks the infrastructure to support a circular model. In a circular- economy model, the goal is to extend product life by encouraging reuse by other consumers by reselling, remanufacturing, facilitating repair, or renting. This practice preserves the stock of natural resources and minimizes the impact of dealing with waste. Most plastic waste accumulating in the Middle East and North Africa stems from the use of plastics as packaging materials. New business models must be developed to create a reuse ecosystem that works for consumers and producers. Replacing just 20 percent of the region’s SUP packaging with reusable alternatives would create a market worth at least US$10 billion (EMAF 2020). Reuse-business models can provide many benefits for the Middle East and North Africa, including cost reduction for companies, increased brand loyalty, and a better user experience. The region presently lacks the legislative environment and technological infrastructure to effectively support the reuse of plastic products. Ways to support plastics’ reuse are discussed below. Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) Schemes EPR schemes have been evolving for several decades. The goal of these frameworks is to ensure that those who place products on the market (that is, producers and importers) are responsible financially, logistically, or both, for their products when they become waste at the end of their life cycle. In an EPR system, the cost for the final recycling or disposal of materials is borne by the producer of that item. EPR programs 248 Blue Skies, Blue Seas implemented in individual countries differ widely, including the indus- tries and products covered; the policy contexts in which they have been introduced; the nature of the responsibilities placed on producers; and the social, economic, and cultural contexts in which programs operate. Efforts in the Middle East and North Africa. There is scope for rolling out sustainable waste management systems adapted to local contexts and based on shared responsibility in the Middle East and North Africa. Despite high rates of waste mismanagement, there has been progress mainly in cities. Most of the region’s economies have established ministries or specialized authorities for waste with qualified personnel—for example, the National Waste Agency (NDA) in Algeria, the Waste Management Regulatory Authority (WMRA) in Egypt, the Oman Environmental Services Holding Company (be’ah), or ANGed in Tunisia. Cities have improved their infrastructure and developed waste collection capacities, and decision makers are more aware of the concept of separated-waste collection. In some countries, such as Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia, resident-engagement initiatives and financial investments are under way. Many high-income countries in the GCC are finding ways to increase sustainable disposal through waste-to-energy projects, new regulations and programs, and private sector initiatives with new circular business models to take advantage of the circular economy and recovery after COVID-19. As for EPR programs, some of the region’s economies have identi- fied the opportunity to implement them, but more capacity is needed. Morocco, for instance, stipulates integration of the principle of EPR under the 2013 Framework Law 99-12 under the National Charter of the Environment and Sustainable Development (CNEDD). Its Law 28-00, which lays out the fundamental rules and principles for the man- agement and disposal of waste, sets up a system of accountability based on the “polluter pays” principle. And a bill amending and supplement- ing this law to strengthen the integration of the EPR principle is being finalized. However, this process has been delayed, and currently there is no functioning mechanism for working with the private sector on this matter (World Bank 2021d). More recently, Jordan announced that it will begin implementing the EPR system on a voluntary basis in major waste-generating companies. The government is working with producers to establish an association to identify the types of waste on the market and draw up an action plan for the recovery of recyclable material, with the goal of creating job oppor- tunities as well (WAM 2020). A Greek EPR model. Setting up local waste management structures and strengthening local expertise to ensure sustainable operation is key for program success. In Greece, a producer responsibility organization Blue Seas: Freeing the Seas from Plastics 249 (PRO)—the Hellenic Recovery Recycling Corporation (HERRCO)—to implement a collective system for packaging waste has been key to set- ting up and sustaining such operations. The main activity of HERRCO, which covers 95 percent of the nation’s territory, has been developing and operating a network of blue bins for packaging waste, in close coop- eration with municipalities. In 2003, HERRCO introduced its blue-bin recycling system for the collection of mixed recyclable packaging waste such as paper, cardboard, metal, glass, and plastics. Producers are obliged to pay fees of approxi- mately €66 per ton for plastic packaging put on the market. Between 2011 and 2015, the percentage of Greece’s population covered by the blue-bin system increased from 75 percent to 92 percent (HERRCO 2015). Specific awareness-raising and education about how to recycle at the household level is important because contamination in the packaging presents a significant challenge to the separate collection of recyclable plastic waste. However, only 6 percent of all plastic waste is placed in blue bins, and an estimated 50 percent of the bins’ content is contami- nated (Dalberg Advisors 2019e). Therefore, there is great potential for increasing the quantity of recycled materials. The informal sector in Greece plays a role in obtaining recycling materials and thereby creates a secondary market. In recent years, the growing number of immigrants in Greece has resulted in the increased removal of high-value materials from recycling bins, although this typically consists of paper, cardboard, and metals. The Greek system has been facing challenges because of the lack of mandatory participation on the part of the private sector, lack of enforce- ment and consumer awareness, and low fees. Not all producers, import- ers, and online retailers are registered in the system. HERRCO members account for only 10 percent of the plastics produced and mainly include large multinational companies, with a large proportion of SMEs not fulfilling obligations (Dalberg Advisors 2019e). This is reflected in the amount of material collected. In 2015, HERRCO reported that around 356,000 tons of recyclables were collected, and 202,000 tons were recy- cled. The difference between collected and recycled quantities indicates a loss rate of around 43 percent, highlighting that the system could improve its overall performance (Elliott et al. 2020). Recommendations to improve system effectiveness are in line with the need to increase fees charged to producers (currently some of the lowest in Europe) to cover the full costs of end-of-life management, including litter (in line with EU policy). In addition, producers of the least recycla- ble forms of packaging should be taxed at rates that reflect the “polluter pays” principle and incentivize packaging-design changes that incorpo- rate recycling, recycled content, and reuse (Elliott et al. 2020). 250 Blue Skies, Blue Seas EPR schemes for certain types of plastic products have been success- ful in Greece. For example, ECOELASTIKA, a Greek initiative for collecting, transporting, and recovering end-of-life tires, collects around 95 percent of end-of-life tires in Greece (ECOELASTIKA 2014). Members of this nonprofit organization are companies that import tires and vehicles. ECOELASTIKA processes used tires, including retreading and used-tire trading as well as the production of rubber crumb. Plastic pollution in the Middle East and North Africa’s agriculture sector is an increasing problem that can be solved by working with local stakeholders. Agri-plastics is a sector with increased interest in sustain- able waste management, and other countries’ best practices can be help- ful to MENA. For example, the Hellenic Plant Protection Association (ESYF) offers a separate management system for agri-plastics, particu- larly for empty plastic packaging from crop-protection products such as pesticides. The ESYF represents 20–25 companies involved in the crop-protection industry that produce, standardize, and distribute most of plant-protection products in the Greek market.23 Determining correct fee levels and enforcement are key aspects of program success. EPR systems could significantly increase the amount of funding available for optimizing existing waste collection and manage- ment systems in line with the needs of municipalities. Fees charged to pro- ducers should reflect the costs required to deliver a well-functioning waste collection, transport, and treatment system (Elliot et al. 2020). Consumer- awareness programs and incentives for correct separation are key elements of program implementation and contribute to long-term success. Deposit-Refund Schemes Deposit-refund schemes (DRSs) are one of the best ways for reusing plas- tic waste, particularly beverage packaging. The goal of DRSs is to recover certain products by incentivizing consumers to return the product pack- aging or end-of-life products. A typical example is a deposit payment to the retailer when a beverage in PET is bought, with the deposit refunded when the empty container is returned. Typically, legislation establishing a DRS mandates specific actions on the part of producers and retailers and may set up new institutions to handle the collection and processing of returned products. Many studies have shown the positive impact of DRSs on reducing the inappropriate dumping of waste and the economic benefits in the form of savings in waste management (Calabrese et al. 2021; Dinan 1993; Lavee 2010; Linderhof et al. 2019; Zhou et al. 2020). One of the most successful cases is in Germany where the adoption of a DRS resulted in 98 percent of one-way PET packaging being returned to appropriate collection sites (Zhou et al. 2020). Blue Seas: Freeing the Seas from Plastics 251 The implementation of DRSs varies depending on the context. Ten of 27 EU member countries have implemented DRSs, although this will change, because countries must follow the most recent Plastic Strategy and EU Directive (2019/904-6) (mentioned in box 4.9). Research shows that different DRS models produce different return rates, depending on urban densities; container types and sizes; socioeconomic, cultural, and geographic factors; and how the chosen model is implemented and oper- ated (Calabrese et al. 2021; Zhou et al. 2020). In 2001, a DRS went into effect for beverage containers in Israel—the only place in the region that has a DRS. In 2010, the law was amended, setting up a collection target of 77 percent for all deposit containers in the market and prohibiting manufacturers from applying for exemptions from the target. Supermarkets and shops are obligated to take up to 50 containers per customer per day (Reloop 2020). The program’s manager has been the ELA Recycling Corporation, a nonprofit organization that serves all major suppliers (covering 95 percent of the market). Its goal is to promote, coor- dinate, and fund the selection, collection, sorting, and recycling of bottles and beverage containers. ELA is officially recognized by the Ministry of Environmental Protection as the agent through which producers are expected to meet requirements such as the recycling target. The system has been successful and has achieved significant waste management savings. A cost-benefit analysis of the program shows that total benefits exceed total costs by slightly over 35 percent (Lavee 2010). The DRS represents significant cost savings within the municipal waste management system. By taking beverage containers out of regular waste containers, a municipality can enjoy significant savings in waste manage- ment costs (consisting mainly of waste storage and collection). There are practically no DRSs in the Middle East and North Africa. Only the Abu Dhabi emirate is implementing such a system, albeit without a binding legal framework (as described in box 4.5). The selection of a DRS or an EPR system is a complex task and multiple variables should be considered in the implementation, including previous policy frameworks and local structures. For example, in Spain, even if the DRS would reach 90 percent of the package-return index, the existing EPR system would obtain significantly better e nvironmental results because of the DRS’s environmental (and financial) costs in transporting recovered packages (Abejón et al. 2020). In some north European countries, both systems coexist. Issues such as the number and distribution of counting plants (the network of plants) and the distances from manual collection points to DRS packaging points are factors to consider when comparing EPR and DRS systems (Abejón et al. 2020). In most cases, policies should specify the deposit to be charged on certain beverage containers and a minimum recycling target. A DRS 252 Blue Skies, Blue Seas combines two types of economic incentives: (a) a tax on the purchase of the container that should reflect the potential for inefficient disposal (for example, burial in landfill or littering in public spaces); and (b) a subsidy to whoever returns the container so that it can be disposed of in the environmentally preferred way (recycling). In general, the most effective systems are run by the beverage industry as a form of producer respon- sibility, with minimal government intervention (Hogg et al. 2010). For a DRS to succeed, it is key to work with consumers to educate them about the benefits of a DRS and how they can obtain a refund of their deposit. Policies to Recycle Plastic Waste Properly To fully implement a circular-economy approach and stop the leakage of plastics, recycling levels in the Middle East and North Africa should be higher. As shown earlier, waste management in the region is often inad- equate, leading to leakage of plastic waste into the environment and marine spaces. Hence, improving SWM is an important precondition for recycling. It is crucial to enhance the currently short useful life-span of plastics and retain used plastics in the value chain as long as possible. However, recycling faces some challenges that must be addressed to pres- ent it as a viable alternative to traditional disposal methods and widen its adoption in the region. In the region, the level of recycling—including for plastics—is very low except in some high-income GCC countries. The proportion of recycled waste in Jordan and Morocco is 10 percent; in Lebanon, 8 percent; in the Republic of Yemen, 7 percent; in the Islamic Republic of Iran, 6 percent; in Algeria, Iraq, and Tunisia, 5 percent each; in Egypt and Syria, 3 percent each; in West Bank and Gaza, 2 percent; and in Bahrain and Libya, 0 percent each (Verisk Maplecroft 2020). Among the GCC countries, Qatar leads the region with 31 percent of waste being recycled, although high-income countries such as the United Arab Emirates (24 percent), Kuwait (19 percent), Oman (15 percent), and Saudi Arabia (12 percent) remain below the average of countries of similar income and even lower than the world average (figure 4.9). Challenges from an informal recycling sector. Most recycling col- lection is informal—conducted separately from the SWM system by the informal sector consisting of waste pickers, collectors, and wholesalers. These circumstances result in an informal economy for the collection and treatment of high-value recyclable material. In Morocco, 90 percent of recycling is essentially informal despite several government policy programs to formalize this activity. This informal recycling competes intensively with formal recyclers that bear the costs of taxation and com- pliance with health and safety regulations (World Bank 2021d). Blue Seas: Freeing the Seas from Plastics 253 The waste pickers’ activity is independent, seasonal, permanent, and occasional for some—taking place in the streets, landfills, or near trading and waste-recovery platforms—and it is poorly controlled. Collectors are those with space to aggregate the material collected; collectors pay very low prices to ragpickers. Wholesalers often offer equipment to itinerant waste pickers to improve their performance. Tunisia’s collection and recycling industry involves 15,000–18,000 jobs directly and indirectly, underscoring the importance of the sector as a source of jobs (World Bank 2021f). Challenges from low-priced virgin plastic production. In the Middle East and North Africa, the current pricing of virgin plastics and the low costs of traditional disposal are the primary drivers for the low viability of plastic-recycling schemes. The price of recycled plastics versus virgin plastics, and the costs of setting up and operating a recy- cling scheme versus other forms of final disposal, are important barriers that have prevented the region from achieving higher recycling rates. Plastic litter is costly to recover, and both the amount of plastic litter and its associated costs will continue to increase as the region’s economic growth continues. The production of virgin plastics receives important fiscal benefits and incentives relative to the recycling industry. Subsidies to the petrochemicals sector combined with low global oil prices are driving a wedge between the prices of recycled and virgin plastics. During 2020, the price of virgin PET resins, the most widely recycled plastic, was around half of the price for recycled PET flakes (Hicks 2020; Staub 2020). As a regional example, the estimated 2019 cost in Morocco of collecting and preparing enough recycled plastics to produce 1 ton of plastic bags was DH 20,000 (around US$2,100). The same number of bags could be produced from virgin plastics for only DH 12,000 (around US$1,250) (Dalberg Advisors 2019b). These lower production costs also translate into lower costs for the consumer, disincentivizing the broader adoption of recycled products. Through the removal of distortive fossil fuel subsidies, price discrep- ancies could be reduced, leveling the playing field between recycled plastic products and those derived from virgin plastics. This is much in line with the discussion in the preceding section and also has important cross-sector benefits for local air pollution (as discussed in the chapter 3 section, “Policies to Reduce Vehicle Emissions”). Challenges from lack of scale and regulations. The Middle East and North Africa’s current recycling schemes lack economies of scale. Even though there are some recycling schemes operating in the region, scale and volume are needed to justify investment and infrastructure capable of extracting more value. In Morocco, the estimated potential of plastic waste is approximately 794,000 tons, of which only 198,500 254 Blue Skies, Blue Seas tons (25 percent) is recovered and recycled (World Bank 2021d). This means that 75 percent of valuable material is lost in the current economy. The Plastic Recovery Association reported that, before the pandemic, recycling units ran at less than 50 percent of production capacity (World Bank 2021d). The absence of regulations governing collection, sorting, and separa- tion at source makes it even more difficult and costlier to obtain valuable material. Most recyclable material ends up with household waste and is subsequently buried in controlled or uncontrolled landfills, or partially collected by formal and informal waste pickers with low technical and sanitary capacities to produce a high-quality item. Detailed mapping of value chains in each country and market potential could be an important gate opener to engage more with the private sector. For example, in Morocco, the resins with the highest rates of recovery are predominantly PET, at 30 percent; low-density polyethylene (LDPE), 29 percent; high-density polyethylene (HDPE), 27 percent; and polyvinyl chloride (PVC), 10 percent. Therefore, these four recyclable resins could have the largest market potential to scale up. A detailed mapping of the plastics value chain in the Middle East and North Africa for most recyclable and consumed resins—and the iden- tification of the local industries that consume the most plastic—could provide valuable information in setting reliable regional or national recycling targets and road maps. For example, using a plastic-value approach, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand evaluated the plastics- recycling industry and its role supporting a circular economy and found that less than 25 percent of available plastic is recycled, and 75 percent of valuable material is lost—the equivalent of US$6 billion per year across the three countries. This situation is especially pronounced for SUPs and represents a significant untapped business opportunity if key market barriers are addressed (box 4.10). Therefore, more attention to each locality’s challenges is required for more accurate policy design. Create Economically Viable Recycling Markets To increase plastic-recycling rates, a reliable supply of and long-term demand for recyclable materials are needed, along with recycling design standards (figure 4.16). Major global brands are making voluntary global commitments to incorporate larger amounts of recycled plastic materials into their products and packaging. There is an increasing level of interest in augmenting the levels of recycling content in products because con- sumer preferences are changing in favor of more sustainable products. However, government policies lack clarity about the use of recycled res- ins in food-contact applications. Similarly, they lack clarity about the recycling standards for packaging products that producers, recyclers, and Blue Seas: Freeing the Seas from Plastics 255 BOX 4.10 Plastics Circularity and Market Potential: Examples from Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand Asia is responsible for over 80 percent of • In Thailand, policy makers committed to the world’s marine leakage, and 8 of the protect the marine environment, top 10 contributing countries are from strengthen regional cooperation, and set that region—among them, Malaysia, the a national “Roadmap on Plastic Waste Philippines, and Thailand. This situation Management 2018–2030” as a policy has led to an increased awareness regarding framework to manage the country’s plastic management, bringing the topic of plastic-waste problem. plastic pollution to the forefront of consum- Using a plastic value-chain approach, a series ers’ consciousness and resulting in policy of studies were developed with the support development and the setting of ambitious of the World Bank to examine untapped national goals in each country: economic opportunities to promote plastics circularity and address marine debris in • In Malaysia, the government recently Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand. launched “Malaysia’s Roadmap Towards These studies primarily assessed the market Zero Single-Use Plastics 2018–2030,” for plastics recycling in each country to while also developing a “Circular Econ- engage and increase private sector participa- omy Roadmap” to address plastic produc- tion and improve the enabling policy envi- tion, consumption, recycling, and waste ronment for implementing circular-e conomy management. business models. In these three countries, • In the Philippines, the government is cur- more than 75 percent of the material value of rently developing new strategies. These plastics is lost when single-use plastics include (a) finalizing the “National Plan of (SUPs) are discarded rather than recovered Action for the Reduction of Marine Lit- and recycled. This is equivalent to US$6 bil- ter” (published as part of the Philippine lion per year across the three countries, rep- Development Plan (PDP) 2017–2022), resenting an untapped business opportunity which will contribute to the national tar- if key m arket barriers can be addressed. get to divert 80 percent of national waste Like the reality in Middle East and by 2022; (b) implementing the Ecological North Africa economies, most recycling in Solid Waste Management Act (Republic these three countries happens separately Act 9003), which is an integrated solid from the SWM system via the informal waste management (SWM) plan based on sector, and most suppliers of recycled resins the 3 R’s (reduce, reuse, recycle); and (c) are small and medium enterprises (SMEs) implementing the “ Philippine Action challenged by the lack of scale, management Plan for Sustainable Consumption and systems, technologies, and informal supply Production” (PAP4SCP). networks that are neither fully integrated (continued) 256 Blue Skies, Blue Seas BOX 4.10 Plastics Circularity and Market Potential: Examples from Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand (Continued) nor bear costs similar to the costs borne by • Widening existing government incen- regular businesses. Based on consultations tives for investments in the adoption of with industry stakeholders, several actions newer technologies and processes (for could create an enabling environment to example, matching grants); increasing the increase investment in plastic recycling and supply of quality plastics (through reduce waste: improved recycling standards, industry targets for the collection of plastics); and • Demand-side incentives to establish a sharing know-how, best-in-class innova- strong market for recycled plastics (for tions, technologies, and processes. example, recycled-content targets and green public procurement) These measures would be a turning point to enable equal opportunities for, and the • Government support to reduce capital- growth of, a resilient plastic-recycling indus- investment risk (for example, mandating try with high-quality products that retain source segregation and setting up high material value and the ability to increas- extended producer responsibility [EPR] ingly replace virgin materials. frameworks) Sources: World Bank 2021a, 2021b, 2021c. plastic associations need to capitalize on these opportunities. Most recy- cling companies in the Middle East and North Africa are micro, small, and medium enterprises that are disconnected and challenged by a lack of scale, technology, and technical capacities to take advantage of these mar- ket trends. Some initiatives in GCC countries such as waste-to-power projects are being developed, while recycling plants have started to segregate waste for reuse and to employ technologies for integrated waste management. For example, Abu Dhabi currently recycles 28 percent of nonhazardous waste and composts 6 percent. Dubai’s Smart Sustainability Oasis recy- cling project currently segregates 18 types of household waste and aims to reduce overall generated waste, thereby diverting 75 percent of waste from landfills by 2021 (Gulf News 2017; WAM 2018). Sharjah’s Bee’ah, a waste management company in the United Arab Emirates, has the high- est landfill diversion ratio in the GCC at 76 percent and it is aiming for 100 percent (Ibrahim 2020).24 In 2021, a Bahrain company in collabora- tion with an Australian firm has started treating hazardous waste and converting it into raw materials for the construction and steel industries. Blue Seas: Freeing the Seas from Plastics 257 FIGURE 4.16 Principles for Making Recycling Markets More Financially Sustainable Develop Create Generate sustainable reliable long-term national and Supply Demand global Markets • Increase quality and • Introduce fiscal, market, • Enable credit-trading quantity of recycled and regulatory platforms for recyclables material and plastics- instruments • Increase transparency processing capacity • Implement EPR systems of pricing mechanisms • Establish recycled-design • Expand corporate for recycled plastics standards for sustainable disclosure and plastics commitment to drive • Create pathways towards long-term agreements formalization and support • Create behavioral microenterprise- nudges development programs Source: Personal communication with Delphine Arri, World Bank Senior Environment Engineer, and James Michelsen, IFC Senior Industry Specialist. Note: EPR = extended producer responsibility. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are developing eco-parks that will use recycled materials. Saudi Arabia is also f inalizing its national strategy for the circular economy. All these are important initiatives taking shape in the region, showing the increased attention to circular- economy models. National and sector goals and policy road maps are important to give vision to the sector, create an enabling environment, and outline necessary steps toward making the most of these opportunities. National targets for used recycled materials and plastics that consider current baselines and potential capacities are helpful to incentivize conversa- tions with all industry stakeholders. High-income countries and regions such as the EU have set goals based on industry analysis and potential to be achieved in a relatively short period of time. For example, the EU mandated that, by 2025, at least 55 percent of all plastic packaging in the region must be recycled. As of 2017, this rate was 42 percent. The clear requirements and targets mean that there is less confusion and bet- ter enforcement. The best policies that deal with plastics are those that engage with stakeholders across the value chain and have clear targets that enable stakeholders to understand what is required of them. 258 Blue Skies, Blue Seas Develop Inclusive Recycling Systems Recycling is still in the development phase, and most of it lies in the hands of the informal sector. Dry recyclables such as paper and cardboard, plas- tics, and metals are collected from the streets, landfills, or open dump sites by individuals and are recycled or sold abroad depending on the options available in the particular country. Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia have large, informal solid-waste and recycling sectors whose integration is key to modernize SWM (Scheinberg and Savain 2015). Informal recyclers are increasingly recognized for creating value for their cities. They are usually responsible for most of the recyclable materials, and local authorities have begun to see these benefits. Informal recycling also secures livelihoods for many low- and semi- skilled workers and secures waste management services for poor and marginal areas and difficult-to-reach parts of the cities. The objective of several programs and initiatives in the last few years has been to integrate informal recyclers into urban waste management systems and strengthen their access to local and international value chains. The goal is to develop a modern, high-performance, inclusive urban recy- cling system that relies on cooperation between the informal sector and local SWM authorities (Pew Charitable Trusts and SYSTEMIQ 2018; Scheinberg and Savain 2015). Recyclers in Morocco. Despite some progress, recycling remains largely informal and operates under precarious conditions. In Morocco, recycling is not clearly defined in the current Law 28-00. Most pretreatment is performed manually, which lowers efficiency. Recyclers sort polymers primarily depending on demand and market value: PET making up 30 percent of all recycled plastics; LDPE and HDPE making up 29 and 27 percent, respectively; and PVC making up 10 percent. Some recyclers are organized or semiorganized and provide some pretreatment of waste (like washing, grinding, and so forth) for producing materials in the recycling industry (powder, granules, flakes, and so forth). According to the Association de Valorisation du Plastique, in 2019 the plastic-recycling sector in Morocco had 70 plastic-recycling units (co-ops and associations), processes the equivalent of 60,000 tons of waste per year (for a turnover of DH 720 million, which is around US$78 million), and provides approximately 2,000 direct jobs and 5,000 indirect jobs. Although waste pickers are part of the first link of the value chain, they remain socially excluded and exposed to health risks and abuse by intermediaries and wholesalers. Most recyclers have low education levels and are often illiterate (World Bank 2021d). Crucially, recyclers in Morocco, like elsewhere, face the challenge of providing a material that is often more expensive than virgin plastics. Aside from the subsidized plastic production, this is due to the lack of Blue Seas: Freeing the Seas from Plastics 259 investment and capital. In addition, this sector’s place in the value chain suffers from (a) lack of equipment for washing, compressing, and crush- ing waste to increase the sales price; (b) lack of training and capacities to preserve workers’ health and maintain work equipment and tools; (c) abuse of workers by intermediaries and wholesalers; and (d) lack of awareness by the general population regarding sorting at source, which would dramatically help recovery rates (World Bank 2021d). Recyclers in Egypt. Similarly, the informal sector in Egypt is com- plex, with different groups of people recovering materials and selling. The Zabbaleen—a term for many in the informal recycling sector (coined from the Egyptian Arabic word for “garbage people” and hence under- standably perceived as derogatory—is estimated to be a community of over 250,000 people. They provide collection, recovery, processing, and recycling services to the Greater Cairo area of approximately 20 million people in 2020. In 1986, the newly established Cairo and Giza Cleansing and Beautification Authorities (CCBA and GCBA) began licensing them (EcoConServ 2010). Of all the actors in the current waste system, the traditional informal waste pickers recover the largest volume of materials from the city. They do so with a regularity that has granted them an established role in the nation’s waste recovery and recycling. They collect an estimated 65 percent of Cairo’s waste, recycling around 85 percent of that amount (EcoConServ 2010). Other groups of vulnerable people working with recyclables are the Sarriiha (singular Sarriih) and lae’ita. Sarriiha are those who roam the streets buying, trading, and exchanging recyclable waste items, and lae’ita are those who scavenge and collect the waste by picking through dumps, landfills, and street bins. They roam the country in both rural and urban areas either with pushcarts or on donkey-pulled carts. Unlike the Zabbaleen, the lae’ita do not collect from households or regular com- mercial and institutional clients. They are not organized into nonprofit organizations, cooperatives, or trade associations and thus have limited support. Basically, they exchange mainly plastics and metal that house- wives set aside for them in return for household items of utility. Usually, these groups are linked to a trader (a mo’allem) who owns a depot and supplies their donkey cart and the day’s cash for immediate transactions. Principles for a more inclusive recycling sector. Although formal integration is increasing its visibility and moving rapidly, the situation in the Middle East and North Africa remains complex and requires more attention. Decision makers’ growing awareness of structural integration of informal workers is developing in a supportive and global environ- ment. More interventions are targeting professionalization of recycling workers, although there is still a need to build better consensus about 260 Blue Skies, Blue Seas how and at what pace. International experiences provide several broad principles for inclusion of informal waste pickers to support the objec- tives of a circular economy and the recycling of waste: • Provide pathways to formalization, licensing, and compliance to ensure market transparency for informal waste pickers • Recognize informal recyclers’ work as an occupation and call them “recycling workers” • Facilitate enterprise development programs through cooperatives or associations for informal waste pickers and collectors • Provide financial support for establishing small, medium, and large recycling units through suitable incentives • Through community-based organizations, implement awareness- raising programs for waste pickers regarding health, safety, and finan- cial matters • Implement awareness programs for other stakeholders about informal waste pickers and their mainstreaming into the economy. With appropriate policies, governments can create more jobs and improve the working conditions of informal waste pickers by building capacity for the delivery of higher-quality products through training and small enter- prise or microenterprise development programs. In addition, the infor- mal industry can be provided with a pathway to formalization, licensing, and compliance to ensure a transparent market and level the playing field with formal recyclers that comply with environmental, health, and safety standards and other requirements (as discussed in box 4.11, with examples from Latin America). More generally, the region’s economies could profit from increased job potential induced by higher rates of recycling. With China banning imports of lower-grade waste in early 2018, the case for developing proper waste management infrastructure in the Middle East and North Africa and developing its domestic recycling capabilities has been strengthened (Al-Sadoun 2018). In the GCC countries alone, an increase of approximately 40 percent in recycling rates would cut CO2 emissions by 10–12 million tons per year and decrease primary energy consumption. Furthermore, the creation and advancement of the recycling industry in these countries could create 50,000 new jobs with a total market potential of around US$6 billion per year, and investors can expect operating margins of above 15 percent in various opportunities across the value chain (Menachery 2020). In Tunisia, the ECOLEF Blue Seas: Freeing the Seas from Plastics 261 BOX 4.11 Integration of Recyclers into Local Waste Management Systems: Examples from Latin America In 2011, the Colombian Constitutional Recycler organizations had to demonstrate Court declared that “waste pickers are his- that they had sufficient accounting systems torically the holders of an environmental in place, the capacity to control collecting role of great importance.” Meanwhile, in routes with georeferencing systems, Peru, Law No. 27419 specified that “the mechanisms for managing grievances, and State recognizes the activity of waste pick- the management capabilities to compete ers, promotes their formalization and their with other companies in transparent integration into the waste management sys- tendering processes for the collection of tem.” These were the instrumental laws that recyclables. approved the transitional regime for the Local urban waste management authori- formalization of “waste pickers” into key ties pay for the services provided based on stakeholders within their respective coun- the number of recyclable materials col- tries’ recycling materials value chains. Both lected and the cost of their transport to instruments gave recyclers a few years to approved weighing centers. The amount organize themselves into cooperatives and of remuneration was set according to the to complete the technical, administrative, costs that otherwise would have resulted and commercial requirements to participate from the nonmanagement of recyclable in the tendering process that would increase waste. In addition, recycler associations recycling rates in the capital cities of Bogotá could sell clean recycled materials to other and Lima, respectively. companies. Source: World Bank 2021e. program has generated an estimated 18,000 jobs in the local economy while also collecting 150 kilotons of plastic waste since its inception in 1998 (Dalberg Advisors 2019c). However, it should also be acknowledged that such a transition would not carry benefits for everybody. Transitioning toward a more circular concept of the economy is a major overhaul and leaves those people who lack the necessary skills at risk of job displacement. It is hence important to implement policies that cushion these potential adverse effects such as educational and vocational training programs, preferably at a low- threshold level to include the large share of informal workers in the Middle East and North Africa. 262 Blue Skies, Blue Seas Improve Labeling and Recycled-Content Targets for the Most Problematic Products Lack of knowledge about products’ recyclability leads to high inefficien- cies in the recycling process. The public’s knowledge gaps regarding what can be recycled lead to the mixing of different waste types and higher levels of contamination, reducing recyclability levels. Having a lot of unsorted waste either necessitates sorting at the waste-treatment facility or leads to low levels of overall recyclable material. Both outcomes under- mine efforts to recycle, raising inefficiencies in the process. For example, several source-sorting pilot projects in Morocco that sought to achieve recycling levels of 20 percent were tested, with mixed results (World Bank 2021d). In Tunisia, the lack of a legal framework establishing the obligation to separate waste has hindered the creation of a recovery sys- tem for plastic waste, increasing the flows of plastic waste to nature and landfills (World Bank 2021f). The use of instruments such as ecolabels is an important tool to inform consumers about their choices and has been successful in some contexts. Recently, there has been increased use of such labels to inform consumers whether a product or service meets certain environmental performance standards. This type of certification provides a level of trust to consum- ers, covering a wide range of environmental impacts from production to design and disposal. The UK government, for example, has developed a program to ensure that consumers receive better information, work- ing with key stakeholders including industry, trade associations, and standard-setting bodies to develop options for domestic ecolabels that indicate an item’s suitability for recycling (Defra and EA 2018). Clear, regulated labeling of plastic products and packaging is neces- sary to integrate the end consumer into the recycling process at the time of purchase. Deficiencies can be counteracted by clear labeling of these products, indicating their recyclability, and conveying that information to the consumer in an easy-to-comprehend way. Having clear, standard- ized labels for goods that can be recycled, as well as the degree to which they are recyclable, allows the end user to make informed choices. The issue of labeling plastic products is more and more recognized at the global level (Tsakana and Rucevska 2020), including by Middle East and North Africa economies. For example, the GPCA, which brings together the largest plastic producers in the region, also recognizes that product labels indicating the recyclability of plastics can be used to increase demand for recyclable goods. Setting recycled-content standards for plastic products is a gradual way to decouple recycled products from virgin plastics. Setting a deter- mined content by regulation promotes domestic demand and encour- ages investments in the plastic-recycling industry. Recycled-content Blue Seas: Freeing the Seas from Plastics 263 targets must be set in consultation with the relevant industries to ensure product quality, performance, and safety. A feasibility study is recom- mended to evaluate and recommend specific recycled-content targets and set milestones to arrive at these targets. To successfully implement this type of measure, it is essential to assess the local waste management infrastructure and policy options as well as to conduct sensitivity analy- sis of prices and cost-benefit analysis for each target. These studies are prerequisites before any targets for recycled content are set. A recent World Bank study on recycling markets in the Philippines recommends that any recycled-content targets should be set at a resin-level or at an end-use-application level (World Bank 2021c). These types of measures can be effective because they stimulate the local secondary market for recycled products. Policies to Increase Public Awareness and Social Marketing for Effective Policy Making An effective policy framework requires social awareness and educational programming to encourage changes in consumer behavior and promote a gradual transformation toward a circular economy. Public-awareness campaigns and regulatory and economic policy instruments are all needed for lasting change. In the Middle East and North Africa, public awareness about recy- cling possibilities is low. For example, in 2017, only around 38 percent of GCC residents had an informed view about the recyclability of plastics (GPCA 2017). Similarly, a survey in Jordan revealed that knowledge about proper recycling practices was low despite the high willingness of respondents to learn more about these practices (Aljaradin, Persson, and Al-Itawi 2011). Nonetheless, consumers’ concern about the widespread use of plastics in everyday items and plastics’ impact on the environment is growing in the region. In 2018, a representative survey conducted by YouGov in the United Arab Emirates revealed that more than half the respondents were seriously concerned about the excessive use of plastics in their city (YouGov 2018). Close to two-thirds of survey respondents were concerned about the impact of excessive plastic waste on environmental degradation, and more than 80 percent of respondents believed that reducing the use of plastics is the best way to protect the environment. Interestingly, persons older than 40 seem to be more concerned than younger people about the indiscriminate use of plastics. In Dubai, 90 percent of respondents surveyed stated that they make efforts to reduce their own plastic consumption (Lindo 2020). In Oman, 88 percent of respondents surveyed supported a plastic-bag ban and gave numerous suggestions regarding the recycling of plastic bags (Muscat Daily 2018). 264 Blue Skies, Blue Seas Knowledge about legislation is also lacking, further indicating that better outreach and communication are needed. In the same YouGov (2018) survey in the United Arab Emirates, residents were asked about government initiatives to reduce the use of plastics. Although most respondents knew about the concept of “reduce, reuse, recycle,” only two out of five respondents were aware of government legislation to discourage plastic use. Middle East and North Africa governments must enhance the dissemination of information about legislation to increase public awareness of such legislation and adherence to it. Better commu- nication regarding existing legislation, together with information on the adverse effects of plastic pollution, could help shape public opinion about lowering the use of plastics in everyday life. People can change their behavior toward the environment with a sup- portive policy framework, effective public outreach, and the availability of more environmentally friendly options. People can change their behavior to be more responsible toward the environment by, for exam- ple, estimating the costs relating to the use of plastics and identifying co- benefits from reducing plastic use (Marazzi et al. 2020). A combination of approaches of social and education campaigns and decision-supporting tools can have positive, long-lasting results. An evaluation of a Europe- wide program showed that participatory events designed to facilitate dialogue on solutions brought together 1,500 stakeholders and revealed support for cross-cutting pollution prevention measures (Veiga et al. 2016). Therefore, more environmentally sustainable choices and actions can become new norms and widely accepted social practices if robustly supported by private and public sector initiatives, well-enforced policies, and evidence-based communications campaigns (Marazzi et al. 2020). Initiatives to raise public awareness about recycling have been under- taken in Middle East and North Africa’s economies in the past. For example, in a cooperation with the Agence Française de Développement (AFD), a multiyear project to raise awareness among residents of 12 municipalities was undertaken from 2014 to 2017 by the Lebanese nonprofit organization arcenciel.25 It involved awareness campaigns to encourage waste reduction and recycling. Arcenciel also published a “Municipal Waste Management Guide” for the sorting and recycling of household waste. The Tunisian National Waste Management Agency, in cooperation with the Sweepnet network, carried out awareness- raising projects and established a dedicated communication and aware- ness office. And in the course of the EU-funded project SwitchMed and with support by the UNEP, Jordan has launched an awareness campaign titled “One Dead Sea Is Enough” in reference to the Dead Sea bordering the country. The project also included requirements for manufacturers to provide biodegradable plastic bags, job trainings for the Blue Seas: Freeing the Seas from Plastics 265 industry to raise resource efficiency, and development of the Sustainable Consumption and Production Action Plan currently under implementa- tion (SwitchMed, n.d.; UNEP 2018a). The young need to be engaged in the fight against marine plas- tics, but specific approaches are needed. A project in the United Arab Emirates (and India) spearheaded by the Ervis Foundation engages with youth to bring about a generational change in plastic consumption and disposal.26 Their program involves activities such as beach cleanups organized with the help of student ambassadors and the development of a mobile app to spread knowledge about plastic pollution and its effects as well as support ideas for change. This social enterprise is also sup- ported by UNEP in its efforts to foster positive behavior change in the younger generation. Policies to Reduce Marine Litter from Beach-Tourism Recreational Activities Understanding how beach activities influence marine litter in the Mediterranean Sea region is important for policy design because the region’s bathing season is long and beaches are generally crowded and close to population centers. Because tourism is a pillar of the region’s economy, involving tourists in the design of policies and care for the envi- ronment should be a high priority for waste managers to preserve the region’s natural beauty. Beach litter may be up to 40 percent higher in the summer and consists primarily of plastics (bottles, bags, caps, lids, and so forth); cigarette butts; aluminum (cans, pull tabs); and glass (bottles), and originates from shoreline-recreational activities (Galgani, Hanke, and Maes 2015; Munari et al. 2016). In the Middle East and North Africa, high levels of tourism contrib- ute to the plastic-pollution problem. In Morocco, resort-area beaches with significant hotel infrastructure and major coastal cities or “urban beaches” are significantly more polluted during the bathing season (for example Agadir, Casablanca, Rabat, Saâidia, and Tangier) (World Bank 2021d). Of all the debris found, an average of 60.5 percent was related to coastal-recreational activities (CRA) and to smoking-related activi- ties (SMA). CRA debris consisted of food containers, cups, wrappers, trays, straws, cutlery, plastic bottles, cans, and so forth, and SMA debris consisted of cigarette butts, lighters, and tobacco packaging (Nachite et al. 2019). Regardless of their exact percentages of marine litter, recreational activities on beaches play an important role in the generation of marine litter. Although it is key to encourage litter-prevention interventions at the source, programming to influence beachgoer behavior is important and should be implemented in addition to “end-of-pipe” interventions 266 Blue Skies, Blue Seas such as beach cleanups by municipalities and volunteers. Data show that, in the Mediterranean Sea region and other coastal areas, most of the litter washed up on the beaches was left by beachgoers (Galgani, Hanke, and Maes 2015; Munari et al. 2016; Portman et al. 2019; Thiel et al. 2013). Plastics are the most ubiquitous beach-litter items, and therefore considering beachgoers’ behaviors in the design of policies is beneficial. Plastics are the most abundant materials found in the Mediterranean and found to be the most abundant litter item on beaches in Israel, Morocco, and Tunisia (Alkalay, Pasternak, and Zask 2007; Laglbauer et al. 2014; Pasternak et al. 2017; Portman and Brennan 2017). Efforts to increase beach-waste infrastructure for environmental behavioral change should consider beachgoers’ and beach managers’ needs. Considering elements of design for sustainable behavior to reduce litter can improve litter collection on beaches, highlighting the impor- tance of interdisciplinary work to address the problem of marine litter from land-based sources. Principles of sustainable design for public spaces can be applied to one of the most common and problematic types of litter on beaches: cigarette butts. Around 30 percent of the litter on beaches comes from smoking- related activities (cigarette butts, lighters, cigarette packs) (UNEP/MAP and Plan Bleu 2020). Therefore, specific policies to mitigate this type of impact are crucial. Other possible policy measures such as smoking bans in public areas, including beaches and parks, can reduce marine pollution. Because tobacco-product waste became a serious problem along Thailand’s coastline, the government issued the 2017 Tobacco Product Control Act, which states that the Ministry of Public Health can propose new regulations such as a ban on tobacco use on beaches. Voluntary smok- ing bans in areas that struggle with smoking-related litter may be appropriate. Policies to Tackle Marine Sources of Plastic: The Fishing and Shipping Sectors Although maritime sources of plastic waste in the Mediterranean are rather low relative to land-based sources, the fishing and shipping indus- tries are significant contributors to the problem. Abandoned, lost, or otherwise discarded fishing gear represents a significant source of p ollution with serious environmental and socioeconomic impacts. In the European seas, it is estimated that between 2,000 and 12,000 tons of fishing gear are lost each year from the active fishing fleet, with even higher levels expected in the coastal areas from aquaculture gear loss or abandonment (estimated at between 3,000 and 41,000 tons) (OSPAR 2020). Blue Seas: Freeing the Seas from Plastics 267 The harm caused by fishing gear as marine litter is well documented, and wildlife is most affected. Marine megafauna are known to mistak- enly eat anthropogenic debris and die from consequent gastrointestinal blockages, perforations, and malnutrition as well as suffering sublethal impacts (Roman et al. 2020). Marine ingestion occurs in over 1,400 spe- cies, among which marine mammals, sea turtles, and seabirds are well represented (Claro et al. 2019). Other impacts include harm to habitats through smothering and abrasion, potential support to the spread of invasive alien species, and transportation of additives and organic pollutants to habitats and throughout the food chain (OSPAR 2020). A main concern is that fishing gear degrades very slowly over decades, with fibers found to be shedding from the surface of trawl fragments older than 30 years, while the netting itself remains sturdy and robust (OSPAR 2020). Independently of the gear type, the main materials used are plastics: PP, PE, and polyamide (nylon/PA6). Fishing gear can also include single and mixed materials containing metals, PVC, polystyrene, polyvinylidene difluoride, Dacron (PET and polyester), rubber, foam, and various hazardous materials (for example, lead weight and copper coatings). Overall, the supply chain for fishing gear is com- plex and country-specific, with local assembly undertaken locally (OSPAR 2020). Currently, only a small proportion of fishing gear is recycled at end of life, although it would be possible to scale up if recycling markets were well developed. Fishing gear can contain multiple types of mixed polymers, which require high levels of preprocessing (sorting and dismantling) to be recycled, with high costs and time involved. Circular-economy approaches to the design of fishing gear are still nascent and primarily driven by functionality and cost, not environmen- tal impact and waste management. Hazardous materials are still used in fishing gear (for example, copper coating, lead). Increasing management aimed at preventing the loss of fishing gear (or parts thereof) could give the quickest gains for now. For this, interna- tional fishing organizations recommend that it is important to undertake national mapping exercises for the life cycle of fishing gear as well as analysis of national legal frameworks related to the end-of-life fishing gear waste (OSPAR 2020). Solutions could include the introduction of minimum quality stand- ards for fishing gear, repair, and port disposal of damaged nets, and enforcing penalties for dumping, failure to retrieve lost items, and restricting fishing activity in locations and conditions where loss is likely (Roman et al. 2020). 268 Blue Skies, Blue Seas Cleanups to Reduce Marine-Plastic Pollution Cleanups are important responses to the alarming levels of plastic pollu- tion affecting the Mediterranean coasts of many Middle East and North Africa countries because they restore and preserve ecosystems and main- tain the beauty of the local beaches that attract millions of tourists every year to the region. Most macroplastics in the Mediterranean end up on coastlines before they are sucked into the sea, showing the importance of introducing cleanup solutions on land. Decreasing the flow of plastics into the seas should be the primary objective, but it is also important to reduce the amount that is already floating in marine spaces and washed up along the shores. More than 1 million tons of total plastic has accumulated in the Mediterranean (Boucher and Billard 2020). While a steady stream of more than 200,000 tons of plastics enters the Mediterranean every year, 1,000 metric tons are washed up along its shores (Boucher and Billard 2020). By not dealing with and removing them appropriately, more and more of it ends up in these spaces permanently. Moreover, through contin- ued fragmentation of macroplastics into microplastics and ingestion by fish and other species, plastics enter the food chain, severely affecting biodiversity and human health. Plastic concentrations in the Mediterranean Sea are highly variable. As a semi-enclosed sea, the Mediterranean has a very low flush rate as well as significant environmental variability (Kaandorp, Dijkstra, and van Sebille 2020; Portman and Brennan 2017). Often plastic waste remains in coastal areas. Adding to various sources of plastics, many surface currents end in the eastern basin because of downwelling, increasing the problem of these locations. More importantly for policy design, the highest fluxes of sinking (of more than 1 kg per square kilometer per day) occur just next to the coast, where the nonbuoyant plastics immediately sink. Given the amount of plastic pollution already accumulated in marine spaces, introducing cleanup technologies can be part of the solution. At least 52 technologies exist for the prevention or collection of plastic pol- lutants. Of these, 14 technologies focus on leakage prevention (such as wastewater treatment for microplastics in clothing), and 38 focus on col- lecting macroplastic waste already in waterways (Schmaltz et al. 2020). The Ocean Clean-up is the best-known technology for corraling and capturing floating plastic items in the North Pacific Gyre.27 Other examples are the Seabin Project that collects floating debris from ports and marinas in Sydney, Australia,28 and “Mr. Trash Wheel” in Baltimore, Maryland, which collected approximately 1 million pounds of waste over the course of 2.5 years by funneling trash from harbors and rivers, pre- venting loss to the sea (Campbell 2016; Schmaltz et al. 2020).29 Adopting these technologies has been very important in cleaning that city’s Blue Seas: Freeing the Seas from Plastics 269 waterways, and similar technologies (such as the Watergoat Trash Traps in Augusta, Georgia) have been used elsewhere (Savannah Riverkeeper 2018; Schmaltz et al. 2020). Increased media attention to marine pol- lution in the past few years has triggered even more the development of technology projects and increased expectations. But although these efforts to collect plastic pollution are laudable, their current capacity and widespread implementation are still limited in scope, and most of them are in the trial phase. Local beach cleanups have become a common local response to marine-plastic pollution. Usually, these are largely conducted by vol- unteers concerned about the crisis who react by gathering together with like-minded people to clean specific hot spots. Through these actions, coastal communities practice environmental stewardship. One example of beach cleanup coordination at the global level is the Ocean Conservancy International Coastal CleanUp campaign, which encour- ages individuals and groups to organize their own local volunteer clean- ups as part of a global campaign. Voluntary beach cleanups should not crowd out actions taken by industry or government. One common concern about framing volunteer beach cleanups as a solution to the plastic-pollution crisis is that such framing shifts the “narrative of responsibilization” away from industry and government to consumers and civil society (Jorgensen, Krasny, and Baztan 2021). Cleanup methods are helpful to reduce the impacts on marine life and restore degraded ecosystems and should be used in tan- dem with other preventive solutions, such as the ones mentioned in the previous sections. To briefly summarize the key message presented in this policy- review section on the marine-plastic pollution of the Middle East and North Africa’s seas: The environment, its residents, and their national economy are not independent entities; they are very much interdepend- ent. Each can—and each does—very substantially affect the well-being of the other two. As the examples in this section have shown, strategies are available to limit marine-plastic pollution contemporaneously and synergistically in the Middle East and North Africa region while protecting and enhancing residents’ well-being and furthering local and national economic develop- ment. The only way to comprehensively achieve these three interrelated goals of protecting and enhancing the environment, human health, and local and national economic development is through a circular-e conomy approach, which consists of the “3 R’s + 2”. The 3 R’s are Reduce, Reuse, and Recycle, and the “+ 2” are (1) proper disposal (including cleanups) of plastics that cannot be reused or recycled, and (2) awareness-raising cam- paigns to inform the public about plastic pollution of the region’s seas. 270 Blue Skies, Blue Seas Only if residents are educated about the problems that such pollution causes can public opinion be mobilized to support government policies that advance the principles and practices of a circular economy. NOTES 1. Macroplastics are plastic items with a size of at least 5 millimeters, and microplastics are smaller than 5 millimeters. 2. The figures estimated by Jambeck et al. (2015) are unique for their global coverage, but this comprehensiveness comes with the caveat that, for some countries, the estimates of marine-plastic debris may be less precise and devi- ate from estimates in country-specific studies. Still, the Jambeck et al. (2015) figures are widely recognized and often used as a benchmark to compare the discharge of plastic debris into the oceans across countries. 3. Microplastics are divided into two types: primary and secondary. Examples of primary microplastics are found in personal-care products; plastic pellets (or nurdles, which are the size of a lentil) used in industrial manufacturing; and plastic fibers used in synthetic textiles (for example, nylon). Secondary microplastics are ones that result from the fragmentation of larger pieces through exposure to, for example, wave action, wind abrasion, and ultraviolet radiation from sunlight. 4. These fish species are the European pilchard (Sardina pilchardus) and the European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus). 5. The ROPME refers to the RSA as the sea area at the most northwestern part of the Indian Ocean, surrounded by the eight ROPME member states: Bahrain, Iraq, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. 6. The five major gyres—large systems of rotating ocean currents—are the North and South Pacific Subtropical Gyres, the North and South Atlantic Subtropical Gyres, and the Indian Ocean Subtropical Gyre. 7. The major oceanic zones are the North Pacific, South Pacific, North Atlantic, South Atlantic, and Indian Oceans. 8. In terms of mass, the Mediterranean contains 5–10 percent of global micro- plastics, with the small average particle size accounting for the differences between counts and mass (van Sebille et al. 2015). 9. Ocean plastic can persist in a sea’s surface waters, eventually accumulating in remote areas of the world’s oceans. In the Great Pacific Garbage Patch (GPGP)—a major plastic-accumulation zone formed in subtropical waters between California and Hawaii—at least 46 percent of the GPGP mass con- sisted of fishing nets (Roman et al. 2020). 10. The reasons for this level of human ingestion are (a) the amount of plastic produced in recent decades, which has been increasing at a steady rate of 4 percent a year; and (b) the primary use of plastic as a disposable material, with large amounts of plastic waste not adequately managed, as noted earlier. 11. The midpoint of the 4–8 percent range is taken as the plastic industry’s share of global oil production and growth rates of consumption, in line with pro- jected industry growth of 3.8 percent annually 2015–30 and 3.5 percent annually 2030–50. Increases in efficiency are limited (EMAF 2016). Blue Seas: Freeing the Seas from Plastics 271 12. For more information, see the SwitchMed website: https://switchmed.eu/. 13. The estimate is based on analysis of five Asian countries: China, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam (Engel, Stuchtey, and Vanthournout 2016). 14. Countries consulted were Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, and all of the GCC countries. Issues with data availability for SUP items and their alternatives restricted the inclusion of other economies in the analysis. The websites consulted were https://www.luluhypermarket.com/; https:// www.desertcart .ae/; https://egypt.souq.com/eg-ar/; https://www.noon .com/; and https://www .ubuy.com.kw/. The data were obtained on December 2, 2020. 15. Prices were standardized to relate to a single unit of each good; however, batch sizes may vary where that variation was unavoidable. Such differences could distort per unit prices. Furthermore, purchases from wholesale dis- tributors by commercial clients, such as restaurants or catering services, most likely involve varying prices (and price discrepancies) and are not reflected in this analysis. 16. Data are from the EUROMAP (2016) comparison of production, consump- tion, and imports of plastic resins for the Middle East region. Changes in inventories produced in a previous year are not considered, leading to poten- tial deviations. The EUROMAP report considers the Middle East only in the aggregate—that is, it does not include North African countries, Egypt, or Djibouti. However, it is reasonable to assume that much of the plastic consumed in these countries is imported from Middle East producers in intraregional trade. 17. For ethane and natural gas, these prices are significantly lower than ones from comparable global markets, with prices of the latter 50–300 percent higher. Furthermore, fixing the prices of inputs gives companies an advantage by easing their planning of production costs and capacities. 18. Globally, around one-third of produced food ends up as waste (FAO 2011). This problem is likely accentuated in GCC countries: for example, survey respondents in Saudi Arabia stated that more than 75 percent of food purchased is discarded every week to make room for new groceries (Baig et al. 2019). 19. Coated plastic excludes sterilized aseptics, beverage cartons, and coffee cups for which the lamination weight or double-sided application mean they are recyclable only in a specialized recycling facility. 20. For example, the European industrial composting standard EN 13432 could be mandated where industrial-equivalent composting is available and effective. 21. Saudi Standards, Metrology and Quality Organization (SASO), “Technical Regulation for Degradable Plastic Products,” No. M.A-156-16-03-03, Official Gazette, October 14, 2016. 22. Emirates Authority for Standardization and Metrology (ESMA), “Standard & Specification for Oxo-biodegradation of Plastic Bags and Other Disposable Plastic Objects”; “Specific Requirements for the Registration of Oxo- Biodegradable Plastic Objects according to UAE Standard 5009: 2009” (Revision 1, March 1, 2014). 23. See “Regular Members,” ESYF website: http://esyf.gr/o-syndesmos/esyf -members/. 272 Blue Skies, Blue Seas 24. For more information, see the Bee’ah website: https://www.beeahgroup .com. 25. See “Sorting and Recycling within Organizations and Municipalities,” Sustainable Agriculture and Environment Projects, arenciel: https://www .arcenciel.org/projects/sorting-and-recycling-in-municipalities/. 26. For more information, see the Ervis Foundation website: https://www . ervisfoundation.org/; and “Educating the Youth for Responsible Plastic Consumption and Disposal,” UN Sustainable Development Goals website: https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/partnership/?p=32210. 27. 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Law. 2015. “A Global Inventory of Small Floating Plastic Debris.” Environmental Research Letters 10 (12): 124006. 282 Blue Skies, Blue Seas Veiga, J. M., T. Vlachogianni, S. Pahl, R. C. Thompson, K. Kopke, T. K. Doyle, B. L. Hartley, et al. 2016. “Enhancing Public Awareness and Promoting Co-Responsibility for Marine Litter in Europe: The Challenge of MARLISCO.” Marine Pollution Bulletin 102 (2): 309–15. Verisk Maplecroft. 2020. “Recycling Index.” Database, Verisk Maplecroft Limited, Bath, UK. Verma, S. 2020. “Ahmedabad Issues Municipal Bonds to Implement Green Projects.” Case Study for the Climate and Development Knowledge Network (CDKN), ICLEI South Asia, New Delhi. Vié, J.-C., C. Hilton-Taylor, and S. N. Stuart, eds. 2009. Wildlife in a Changing World: An Analysis of the 2008 IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Gland, Switzerland: International Union for Conversation of Nature (IUCN). WAM (Emirates News Agency). 2018. “Dubai Municipality Promotes Smart Sustainability Oasis Project at Dubai Customs.” WAM, March 1. http://wam .ae/en/details/1395302657974. WAM (Emirates News Agency). 2020. “Dubai Sharpens Focus on Circular Economy in Preparation for the Next 50 Years.” WAM, December 22. https:// www.wam.ae/en/details/1395302897217. World Bank. 2021a. “Market Study for Malaysia: Plastics Circularity Opportunities and Barriers.” Marine Plastics Series, East Asia and Pacific Region. World Bank. 2021b. “Market Study for Thailand: Plastics Circularity Opportunities and Barriers.” Marine Plastics Series, East Asia and Pacific Region. World Bank. 2021c. “Market Study for the Philippines: Plastics Circularity Opportunities and Barriers.” Marine Plastics Series, East Asia and Pacific Region. World Bank. 2021d. “Stratégie du Maroc ‘Littoral Sans Plastique’ LISP: Réduction de la Pollution Marine par le Plastique et Promotion des Approches de l’économie Circulaire.” World Bank, Washington, DC. World Bank. 2021e. “Stratégie du Maroc ‘Littoral Sans Plastique’ LISP: Réduction de la Pollution Plastique Marine et Promotion des Approches de l’économie Circulaire. Rapport de Benchmark International. Version Définitive.” World Bank, Washington, DC. World Bank. 2021f. “Stratégie de la Tunisie ‘Littoral Sans Plastique’ LISP: Diadnostic de la Situation et èbauche de plan d’action.” Unpublished manu- script, World Bank, Washington, DC. World Bank and IMF (International Monetary Fund). 2021. “From COVID-19 Crisis Response to Resilient Recovery: Saving Lives and Livelihoods while Supporting Green, Resilient and Inclusive Development (GRID).” Document No. DC2021-0004 for the April 9, 2021, Meeting of the Development Committee (Joint Ministerial Committee of the Boards of Governors of the Bank and the Fund on the Transfer of Real Resources to Developing Countries), Washington, DC. https://www.devcommittee.org/sites/dc/files /download/Documents/2021-03/DC2021-0004%20Green%20Resilient%20 final.pdf. Blue Seas: Freeing the Seas from Plastics 283 Wright, S., and F. Kelly. 2017. “Plastic and Human Health: A Micro Issue?” Environmental Science and Technology 51 (12): 6634–47. YouGov. 2018. “Are UAE Residents Aware of Plastic Legislations in the Country?” Survey report, November 6, YouGov, London. Zhang, Q., E. G. Xu, J. Li, Q. Chen, L. Ma, E. Y. Zeng, and H. Shi. 2020. “A Review of Microplastics in Table Salt, Drinking Water, and Air: Direct Human Exposure.” Environmental Science & Technology 54 (7): 3740–51. Zhou, G., Y. Gu, Y. Wu, Y. Gong, X. Mu, H. Han, and T. Chang. 2020. “A Systematic Review of the Deposit-Refund System for Beverage Packaging: Operating Mode, Key Parameter and Development Trend.” Journal of Cleaner Production 251: 119660. CHAPTER 5 Blue Seas: Fighting Coastal Erosion OVERVIEW Beaches are retreating and coastal areas are eroding fast in parts of the Middle East and North Africa. Especially in the Maghreb subregion, they are already in an advanced stage of degradation, having eroded at alarm- ing rates in recent decades. With uncontrolled human development and the intensification of climate change impacts, pressures are likely to increase. Managing coasts sustainably is a critical part of the green, resilient, and inclusive development (GRID) paradigm for the region’s economies to adopt, because most of their people live in coastal areas— and many, especially in the poorer strata of society, depend on intact coasts for their livelihoods. Coastal erosion in the region already entails substantial costs, as this chapter shows in an economic quantification exercise for four Maghreb countries.1 Those estimated direct costs are conservative since they incorporate costs only for lost land and destroyed buildings and do not take into account the forgone revenues from tourism or fishing activities or damages to marine infrastructure and ecosystems that are important for the region’s biodiversity. These indirect costs are most likely sig- nificant, especially for economies heavily dependent on tourism, because tourists are less willing to return when beaches are gradually disappear- ing. Nonetheless, the estimated annual costs due to losses in land and destroyed buildings alone already amount to large sums, in both absolute terms and as shares of annual economic output. The reasons for eroding beaches are manifold, but knowledge is often sparse about specific drivers of coastal erosion in the region’s hot spots. 285 286 Blue Skies, Blue Seas This chapter discusses the general drivers of coastal erosion; however, comprehensive and granular assessments of the Middle East and North Africa’s coasts are limited, which undermines the effective control of erosive processes. The next section presents findings from two novel such analyses of the coasts of Morocco and Tunisia, conducted for this report in cooperation with the National Oceanography Centre (NOC) of the United Kingdom. However, even here, detailed studies on the balance between sediment added to and removed from the coastal system and its transport, prevalent wave dynamics, and the possible effects of control measures would be necessary to effectively combat the disappear- ance of the region’s beaches. While most measures for combating coastal erosion require knowl- edge about local characteristics, starting a comprehensive integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) scheme is a crucial step to ensure sustainable development of the region’s coasts in the future by avoid- ing coastal erosion where possible and mitigating erosion where it is not. Such an initiation includes identifying and involving all relevant stakeholders; increasing capacity for data, monitoring, and analysis; and planning prospective and reactive measures. The inclusion of all par- ties interested in sustainable coastal development—not only the local population and environmental nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) but also public authorities and private sector players—is crucial and also underlines the importance of managing coasts for development within a GRID framework. A key part of ICZM is segmenting the coast into different zones for which different development policy strategies ought to be formulated, making the inclusion of different interests possible. Another priority rec- ommendation is the increased use of nature-based solutions (NBS) like mangroves or marshes to protect existing human structures. NBS solu- tions, as opposed to other possibilities, have the advantage of conserving or restoring biodiversity and habitats for flora and fauna while also offer- ing job opportunities for the local population, irrespective of gender, with knowledge of the local characteristics, in line with a GRID framework. The chapter concludes with a summary of various other potential ways to combat coastal erosion under the tenets of an ICZM scheme. International and regional examples illustrate the different possibilities for defending the coast and its assets. In addition to NBS, these include “hard-defense” structures such as groins or seawalls and “soft-defense” measures such as beach nourishment—adding sand to eroding shore- lines. Finally, it discusses some regulations regarding dam construction and sand mining. Targeted policies that include suitable defense strategies and regula- tions in a comprehensive scheme for managing the Middle East and Blue Seas: Fighting Coastal Erosion 287 North Africa’s coasts are necessary to protect these assets so future gen- erations can benefit from intact beaches. Such policies are crucial for the economic prosperity of countries, the integrity of their natural habitats and biodiversity, and the resilience of coastal assets and communities to the challenges ahead posed by climate change. HOW ERODED IS THE COAST? The coastlines of the Middle East and North Africa, which stretch for nearly 25,000 kilometers, are central to the region’s economy and history. These coastal and marine environments vary widely. The Red Sea has an average depth of nearly 1,500 meters and a maximum depth of 2,600 meters.2 It has a rich marine life and many shorelines that are still sparsely populated except in its far northern reaches and near the cities of Jeddah and Yanbu, Saudi Arabia; Port Sudan, Sudan; and Al-Hodeidah, Republic of Yemen. In contrast, the inner RSA—that is, the Regional Organization for the Protection of the Marine Environment (ROPME) Sea Area, which extends over 1,000 kilometers from the Strait of Hormuz to the northern coast of the Islamic Republic of Iran—has an average depth of only 35 meters. The inner RSA is characterized by heavy ship traffic and several large, rapidly growing, and densely populated cities. The Mediterranean Sea has an average depth of 1,500 meters with a relatively narrow continen- tal shelf across its southern and eastern shores. The western and eastern Mediterranean coasts have been populated for millennia and include some of the world’s most ancient cities, while the North Atlantic has Morocco’s largest city on its shoreline. Although none of the Middle East and North Africa economies is landlocked, the lengths of their coastlines vary considerably. Jordan has less than 30 kilometers of shoreline on the Gulf of Aqaba, which provides it with access to the Red Sea, whereas Saudi Arabia has more than 7,500 kilometers of shoreline; the Arab Republic of Egypt, 2,900 kilometers; and the Islamic Republic of Iran, 2,800 kilometers. Significance of the Coasts to the Region’s Populations and Economies Coasts are home to large parts of the Middle East and North Africa’s population. Almost 50 percent of the region’s population lived within 100 kilometers of the coast in 2020. The total coastal population is expected to increase by about 18 percent by 2035 (Maul and Duedall 2019). In 13 of the region’s economies, over 60 percent of the population lives within 288 Blue Skies, Blue Seas 100 kilometers of the coast, ranging from around 6 percent in Iraq to over 30 percent in Saudi Arabia, more than 80 percent in Oman and Tunisia, and 100 percent in Kuwait, Lebanon, Malta, and Qatar. Moreover, 10 of the region’s capital cities are located on or near coastlines. Other major cities and economic centers on the coasts include Alexandria in Egypt and Jeddah in Saudi Arabia, but smaller towns and villages cluster along the coast as well. Population growth has increased pressure on the natural environment of the coasts and coastal wetlands as well as on urban water and wastewater systems and marine-water quality. Given the concentration of settlements, the Middle East and North Africa’s coasts are centers for economic activity, as in the following examples: • In Morocco, two-thirds of the population and 90 percent of industries are located on or near the coast, and coastal tourism, largely dependent on intact beaches, is a major contributor to the national economy (Snoussi et al. 2009). • I n Tunisia, more than 83 percent of industrial firms occupy specialized industrial zones along the Sahel coast (Tunisia’s central coast), and 90 percent of the country’s total economic output is achieved in near- shore areas (Albrecht-Heider 2020). • In Djibouti, the city-state’s US$2 billion economy is driven by a state- of-the-art port complex that serves as the principal port of entry to Ethiopia. Given its location at the southern entrance to the Red Sea, it hosts military bases and supports global antipiracy efforts. • In the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, several city-states are dependent for their existence on their coastal locations (Tolba and Saab 2009). • In Egypt, the Mediterranean city of Alexandria hosts about 40 percent of the country’s industrial capacity and is an important summer resort (El-Raey 2010). Moreover, regional transportation hubs such as ports and other economic centers occupy low-lying coastal areas throughout the Middle East and North Africa (Schäfer 2013)—many of which are vulnerable to sea level rise (SLR) and coastal erosion. In some of the region’s economies, much of the population depends on marine resources that are threatened by further environmental deg- radation. The fishing industry is economically significant in several, including Morocco, Oman, and the Republic of Yemen. In Morocco, for instance, fisheries and connected industries contributed around 2.3 per- cent to national gross domestic product (GDP) and created employment Blue Seas: Fighting Coastal Erosion 289 for almost 700,000 people (directly and indirectly) in 2014 (FAO 2020). Morocco is also developing its aquaculture industry. Its fish production in capture fisheries dominates the region, representing about 40 percent of more than 4 million tons of fish landed every year in the Middle East and North Africa (OECD and FAO 2018). Furthermore, coastal areas are important to the livelihoods of hundreds of thousands of people in the region—many of them among the vulnerable and poor—who work in small-scale fisheries and aquaculture, both of which have been increasing substantially in recent years (OECD and FAO 2018; Sieghart, Mizener, and Gibson 2019). Tourism is a major pillar of the economy in many of the region’s economies, accounting for a substantial portion of GDP in several—and in some, adding up to well over 10 percent of economic output. For example, in Morocco, tourism and connected value chains contributed almost 19 percent of GDP, with employment in these sectors making up 19.6 percent of total employment in 2017 (Kasmi et al. 2020). Similarly, in Tunisia, the tourism sector offered jobs for around 2.3 million peo- ple, and economic activity amounted to 14.2 percent of GDP in 2018 (Saidani 2019). In recent years, many of the region’s economies, includ- ing Egypt, Jordan, and Tunisia, have experienced rebounds from previ- ous slumps in tourist arrivals following political incidents. However, the COVID-19 crisis led to sharp reductions in tourist numbers throughout the Middle East and North Africa (box 5.1). It is important that the tourism sector—which is also dependent on intact, clean coasts—emerge from this crisis and recover. For several of these countries, intact beaches and coastlines are vital to their attractiveness to tourists. For example, Djerba Island off the coast of Tunisia accounts for about one-fourth of all of Tunisia’s inter- national tourist arrivals (Carboni, Perelli, and Sistu 2014), and tourism in Tunisia as a whole is focused strongly on coastal areas (Widz and Brzezińska-Wójcik 2020). Similarly, in Egypt, coastal tourism has grown significantly in recent decades, bringing economic benefits to host communities but also increasing environmental pressures (Abdel-Latif, Ramadan, and Galal 2012). Losing the natural assets represented by beaches can severely harm the tourism sector by diminishing the number of tourists or threatening tourism-related infrastructure. Coastal Erosion and Beach Loss: Global Comparisons Coastal erosion and beach loss are global phenomena with regional hot spots, including the southern Mediterranean. Historically, significant shares of sandy beach areas around the world have eroded (lost area), while other have accreted (gained area) or stayed stable (Luijendijk et al. 2018). 290 Blue Skies, Blue Seas BOX 5.1 Tourism in the Middle East and North Africa and the Impact of COVID-19 Tourism is one of the Middle East and • More than 20 million tourists visited the North Africa region’s most important eco- United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. nomic and employment sectors. Before the • Between 10 million and 15 million tour- COVID-19 pandemic hit, the tourism sec- ists visited Bahrain, the Arab Republic tor was growing. Tourists are attracted of Egypt, and Morocco. to the region’s spectacular landscapes and beaches, its cultural heritage, its entertain- • Between 5 million and 10 million tourists ment and shopping opportunities, and its visited the Islamic Republic of Iran, mild winter climate. Ecotourism is also a Kuwait, Lebanon, and Tunisia. growing area, while religious tourism is Domestic tourism was also growing before important especially in the Islamic Republic the pandemic. The sector and its value of Iran and Saudi Arabia. Oil exporting chains accounted for about 20 percent of countries such as Oman and Saudi Arabia employment and gross domestic product are recognizing the potential of increasing (GDP) in Jordan and Lebanon in 2019; tourism to diversify their economies and are over 15 percent in Morocco; nearly 15 investing heavily to increase their attractive- percent in Tunisia; and nearly 10 percent ness for international tourists. in Bahrain, Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and According to the United Nations World the United Arab Emirates. Tourist arriv- Tourism Organization, almost 90 million als are also highly affected by security and international tourist arrivals were recorded geopolitical concerns, but by 2019, tourist in the Middle East and North Africa in arrivals had largely recovered following 2018—about 6 percent of the world’s total several terrorist attacks on tourists in Egypt arrivals and about 10 percent more than and Tunisia between 2014 and 2016. in 2017 (UNWTO 2019). In the North The COVID-19 pandemic has had African countries of Morocco and Tunisia, severe negative impacts on the Middle which rely to a large extent on beach East and North Africa’s tourism sector. tourism, solid growth was recorded: In In 2020, international tourist arrivals 2018, Tunisia’s tourism arrivals experienced globally decreased by more than 74 percent, double-digit growth. Morocco increased its according to UNWTO data. Regional arrivals by around 8 percent, exceeding 12 impacts were as follows:b million visitors (UNWTO 2019). In 2019, the tourism sector also showed strength • In April 2020, international tourist arriv- elsewhere in the region, as follows:a als in the Middle East were down 90 per- cent compared with April 2019 and, for • Tourism accounted for over 45 percent the year as a whole, they were 76 percent of export revenues in Lebanon and over lower than in 2019. 40 percent in Jordan. (continued) Blue Seas: Fighting Coastal Erosion 291 BOX 5.1 Tourism in the Middle East and North Africa and the Impact of COVID-19 (Continued) • In Tunisia, tourism revenues dropped • In Algeria, the tourism receipts for the by around 60 percent in the first three second quarter were down 82 percent quarters of 2020 compared with 2019, compared with 2019. with almost 80 percent fewer interna- • Similarly, receipts and arrivals of interna- tional v isitors arriving in 2020. In April tional tourists in Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, to June 2020, the reduction in visitors Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab reached almost 100 percent. Emirates have been hit hard by the • In Egypt, tourism receipts in the first two COVID-19 crisis, almost obliterating inter- quarters of 2020 were only one-third of national tourism in the months after the pan- those in 2019, with reductions in tourist demic started in the GCC countries. arrivals reaching almost 100 percent in April to August 2020. With the onset of second and third waves of COVID-19 in the region and around • In Morocco, international tourism the world, the tourism sector is expected to receipts were down 93 percent in the begin making a real recovery only after the third quarter of 2020 compared with pandemic is contained and the countries are 2019. able to welcome tourists again. a. Tourism data are from the World Development Indicators database. b. Data on COVID-19 impact from the World Tourism Organization of the United Nations (UNWTO), “Global Tourism Dashboard,” https://www.unwto.org/international-tourism-and -covid-19. Map 5.1 illustrates these processes in some of the most affected areas between 1984 and 2016, displaying severe coastal erosion as red dots and accretion as green dots. The areas shown on the southern Mediterranean shore are mostly eroding. The Maghreb subregion (Algeria, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia) is the second fastest coastally eroding area in the world (by 15 centimeters per year), exceeded by only South Asia (86 centimeters per year), as shown in figure 5.1. The Mashreq subregion’s shorelines also retreated, albeit more slowly (around 7 centimeters per year). In contrast, the GCC’s coasts accreted substantially, by almost 70 centimeters per year, owing in part to large-scale coastal reclamation and development projects. 292 Blue Skies, Blue Seas MAP 5.1 Average Annual Erosion and Accretion of Selected Beaches Worldwide, 1984–2016 Source: Luijendijk et al. 2018. Map available under Creative Commons Attribution license (CC BY 4.0). Note: The selected beaches are those considered “fast changing”—that is, showing more than 0.5 meters (m) accretion or erosion per year. Red dots designate beach areas that display coastal erosion (lost area), and green dots those that have accreted (gained area). Ancillary graphs show the annual percentages of eroding and accreting beach areas by longitude (bottom graph) and latitude (right graph). m/yr = meters per year. Coastal Erosion and Beach Loss: Intraregional Variations Coastal erosion varies substantially across the Middle East and North Africa and even among the Maghreb countries, with Tunisia facing the highest rates of coastal erosion. For example, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia face net erosion of their beaches, while in Algeria accretion dominates (figure 5.2). GCC countries such as Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates have experienced accretion, owing largely to land reclamation and coastal development projects (Luijendijk et al. 2018), while Saudi Arabia’s vast coastline has been rather stable. The coasts of two of the poorest countries in the region, Djibouti and the Republic of Yemen, have been retreating on average by 30–50 centimeters per year. Overall, Tunisia faced the highest net rates of coastal erosion. At the site (hot spot) level, coastal erosion varies significantly. The dynamics of erosive processes and beach retreat can vary significantly for individually affected beaches. For instance, photo 5.1 shows shoreline changes between Chekka and El Heri in Lebanon. Most of the shoreline has experienced severe erosion, with a maximum retreat of 81 meters Blue Seas: Fighting Coastal Erosion 293 FIGURE 5.1 Average Annual Net Coastal Accretion or Erosion, Global Regions and Middle East and North Africa Subregions, 1984–2016 1.0 0.5 Accretion 0 –0.5 Erosion –1.0 nd d n d b qa c a ia ca ia ifi c an ia tio n e e i s i s c pe As ra nc il a n hr hr er A fr A a ro l pe ou eri ca ea ag as m th A st P u tra oo C m b b M M A ou an Ea E r en f C A Ca ri rth S ha C ul tin e N o -Sa G La th ubS Source: Based on Luijendijk et al. 2018. Note: Positive values indicate accretion, and negative values, erosion. Orange bars designate the Middle East and North Africa region or its subregions. Middle East and North Africa subregions are as follows: (a) Maghreb, including Algeria, Libya, Malta, Morocco, and Tunisia; (b) Mashreq, including Djibouti, the Arab Republic of Egypt, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, the Syrian Arab Republic, West Bank and Gaza, and the Republic of Yemen; and (c) Gulf Cooperation Council, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. “North America” includes Canada and the United States. m/yr = meters per year. between 1962 and 2007, totaling 79 hectares over the years (Abou- Dagher, Nader, and El Indary 2012). Reasons for the erosion of this part of the shoreline are large-scale extraction of sediments (sand and pebble) and the influence of the jetty that was added to service one of the major cement factories near the coast. Other parts of the beach have been accreting during this period, mostly because of blocked sediment transport caused by the jetty built perpendicular to the sandy beach. Around the connection of the jetty to the mainland, accretion reached a maximum of 94 meters, and the accreted area amounted to around 25 hectares during that time, illustrat- ing the effect that human intervention can have on beach erosion. Among the most eroded areas in Lebanon is the Akkar shoreline north of Tripoli, which is 13 kilometers long and has been subject to high erosion. With beach retreats of up to 150 meters and an area of 635 hectares lost to coastal erosion, it accounts for 68 percent of the Average shoreline change (m/yr) 294 Blue Skies, Blue Seas FIGURE 5.2 Average Annual Net Coastal Accretion or Erosion in the Middle East and North Africa, by Economy, 1984–2016 5 4 3 Accretion 2 1 0 Erosion –1.0 ain e s n . . .t o ta r an lta an ria tbia ep ai ep aq co lic ya ep ut i sia hr ra n a d a e a R w R Iri c b iba R o i B m eb a Q or M OmJ r o u n E L A lg L , bi A c u b r p i u b ud lam i K ra Mo n j T s , A b Re a a I t a em e D d A r S n, yp Ar Y ite I ra Eg ria n Un Sy Source: Based on Luijendijk et al. 2018. Note: Positive values indicate accretion, and negative values, erosion. Data on West Bank and Gaza are unavailable. m/yr = meters per year. total eroded coastal area in northern Lebanon (Abou-Dagher, Nader, and El Indary 2012). Close Analyses of Tunisian and Moroccan Shorelines Small-scale differences are important; hence higher-resolution analyses of coastlines are preferable. Using the data of Luijendijk et al. (2018), the average shoreline retreat of sandy beaches was calculated to be 12 centi- meters per year on the Atlantic coast of Morocco, 14 centimeters on the Mediterranean coast of Morocco, and 70 centimeters on the coast of Tunisia (Heger and Vashold 2021). However, these aggregate national indicators hide heterogeneity within countries, where some local areas are eroding as others are accreting. To better understand the erosion rates in Morocco and Tunisia— whose coasts are threatened by erosion and where beach tourism and coast-related activities play a large role in the economic mix—the authors of this report partnered with NOC of the United Kingdom and the European Space Agency (ESA) to better understand the distribu- tion of erosion along the coast. To carry out a more detailed analysis in Average shoreline change (m/yr) Blue Seas: Fighting Coastal Erosion 295 PHOTO 5.1 Total Shoreline Accretion or Erosion of Chekka and El Heri, Lebanon, 1962–2007 Legend Shoreline of 1962 Shoreline of 2007 Changes Erosion 79,000 m2 Accretion 25,000 m2 Sea filling 16,000 m2 Source: Nader 2015. © Manal Nader. Used with the permission of Manal Nader. Further permission required for reuse. Note: “Sea filling” (yellow area) designates a jetty built to service a cement factory near the coast. km = kilometers ; m2 = square meters. 296 Blue Skies, Blue Seas these two countries, only photos made by satellites launched from 2000 onward were used to divide the coasts into finer segments, allowing for more precise interpretations. Coastal Changes in Tunisia Shoreline changes vary greatly, even in Tunisia, where 85 percent of the coastline is identified as sandy. The fastest-accreting areas are along the coasts of the Sfax, Gabés, and Médenine Governorates (map 5.2). Accretion rates of 2 meters per year or more are occurring in 13 gover- norates. Intensive erosion is concentrated in seven main areas, exceeding 2 meters per year in Utiquere in Bizerte and Korba in Nabeul. Overall, there is more erosion in the north and more accretion in the south. More than one-third of Tunisia’s sandy beaches (about 35 percent) are eroding at a rate of more than 0.5 meters per year, with some eroding by several meters per year. One declared erosion hot spot is Hammamet Bay along the Mediterranean coast, south of the capital in northeast Tunisia. Coastal erosion of Hammamet’s beach resulted in the loss of 24,000 square meters of beach area in only 13 years (2006–19), at a rate of 3–8 meters per year, as shown in photo 5.2 (Heger and Vashold 2021). This is mostly caused by rapid urbanization on the coast of Hammamet, hindering the natural sediment flow to the shoreline (Amrouni, Hzami, and Heggy 2019). Urbanization, coastal erosion, and associated vegetation loss have also exposed aquifers to seawater intrusion and salinization. Coastal Changes in Morocco Coastal erosion and accretion processes in Morocco also vary widely. On Morocco’s Mediterranean coast, intensive accretion is occurring in Fahs Anjra and Tétouan Provinces (map 5.3). Developments such as North Africa’s largest port, Tanger-Med—a strip of development 1.6 square kilometers long on the Strait of Gibraltar, at Morocco’s northern tip—are likely to significantly affect shoreline-change rates. Other sources of change relate to the hydrological cycle and the rates of river-flow deposi- tion at estuarine locations. Farther east along Morocco’s Mediterranean coast, erosion pro- cesses become more dominant, particularly on either side of Driouch Province in the Port of Al Hoceima Bay and surrounding the Nador West Med Port project. There are severe accretion rates within the lagoon at Nador, whereas the outer coast of Nador has intensive erosion. Numerous studies on the threat of SLR to the Moroccan coastline have been carried out (Kasmi et al. 2020; Snoussi, Ouchani, and Niazi 2008; Snoussi et al. 2009). Blue Seas: Fighting Coastal Erosion 297 MAP 5.2 Annual Average Coastal Erosion and Accretion in Tunisia, 2000–20 N Bizerte Ariana Manubah Tunis Ben Arous Jendouba Béja (Tunis Sud) Nabeul Zaghouan Le Kef Siliana Sousse Kairouan Monastir Mahdia Kassérine Sidi Bou Zid Sfax Shoreline change (m/yr.) <–5 m/yr. –5 to –3 m/yr. –3 to –1 m/yr. –1 to –0.5 m/yr. –0.5 to 0.5 m/yr. >0.5 m/yr. 1 to 3 m/yr. Gabès 3 to 5 m/yr. >5 m/yr. N/A Médenine 0 40 80 160 Kilometers Tataouine Source: NOC 2020. © World Bank. Further permission required for reuse. Note: Tunisia shoreline-change rates are aggregated within areas of about 50 square kilometers, designated by the hexagons. m/yr. = meters per year; N/A = not applicable. 298 Blue Skies, Blue Seas PHOTO 5.2 Coastal Erosion at Hammamet Beach, Tunisia, 2006 vs. 2019 Source: © 2020 CNES/Airbus, courtesy of Google Earth. Note: Shades superimposed on the satellite image show the beach area in 2019 (orange) and the beach area in 2006 (light green). THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF ERODED COASTS If no measures to combat erosion are undertaken, sandy beaches will inevitably be lost, with cascading effects on the economy and the well-being of the local populations, particularly those dependent on tourism. —Snoussi et al. (2017, 30) on coastal erosion in Morocco Coastal erosion processes are already severe and will be exacerbated with climate change and without remedial action—threatening the well-being of coastal communities. This section assesses the human exposure to coastal erosion and estimates the economic costs in the Middle East and North Africa region. These estimates are conservative, not taking into account the indirect impacts on the tourism industry. As noted earlier, much of this sector is significantly threatened by coastal erosion and contributes, with its value chains, more than 18 percent of value added to GDP in Morocco and about 14 percent of value added to GDP in Tunisia (Heger and Vashold 2021). International experiences have shown that, in some Blue Seas: Fighting Coastal Erosion 299 MAP 5.3 Annual Average Coastal Erosion and Accretion, Mediterranean Coast of Morocco, 2000–20 Shoreline change (m/yr.) <–5 m/yr. –5 to –3 m/yr. –3 to –1 m/yr. –1 to –0.5 m/yr. –0.5 to 0.5 m/yr. >0.5 m/yr. Fahs Pre. de Anjra Pr. M diq 1 to 3 m/yr. Pre. of Fnideq 3 to 5 m/yr. Tangier Assilah >5 m/yr. Tetouan Pr. N/A Larache Pr. Chefchaouen Pr. Pr. de AI Hoceima Pr. de Driouch Kenitra Pr. Pr. de Nador Pr. de Berkane 0 20 40 80 Kilometers Source: NOC 2020. © World Bank. Further permission required for reuse. Note: Morocco Mediterranean shoreline-change rates are aggregated within areas of about 15 square kilometers, designated by the hexagons. m/yr = meters per year; N/A = not applicable. Pr. = Province; Pre. = Prefecture. cases, the majority of certain tourist groups reported they would not return if the beaches disappeared or were reduced (Raybould et al. 2013 for Australia; Tarui, Peng, and Eversole 2018 for Hawaii; Uyarra et al. 2005 for Barbados). Thus, unchecked coastal erosion is more than just worrisome, because tourism (of which beach recreation is an important part) is a main sector of many Middle East and North Africa economies. Furthermore, SLR linked to climate change will accelerate erosion processes. Even a modest SLR of only 0.35 meters—consistent with a global temperature rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius (the most optimistic scenario)—would have substantial impacts. Alexandria, the delta coastal cities, and Port Said, Benghazi, and Algiers on the Mediterranean are par- ticularly vulnerable to flooding (Elsharkay, Rashed, and Rached 2009). An SLR of only 0.30 meters would flood 30 percent of metropolitan 300 Blue Skies, Blue Seas Alexandria, forcing about 545,000 people to abandon their homes and land and leading to the loss of 70,500 jobs. Other vulnerable cities include Muscat in Oman; Dubai in the United Arab Emirates; Aden, Republic of Yemen; and Basra, Iraq (El-Raey 2009). Costs from Destruction of Land Values and Built Assets Coastal erosion poses a particular threat to Middle East and North Africa economies because of their high economic exposure to sectors that derive their income from coast-related services, like beach tourism. Many of the region’s largest urban centers as well as many smaller towns and villages are on the shore, which concentrates economic activity in these areas. In this section, the results of a coastal-erosion monetization exercise show that coastal erosion presents a challenge, particularly to the four selected countries: Algeria, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. These con- temporary developments emphasize the need for timely collective action on this issue to mitigate future impacts. Quantifying the Extent and Rates of Coastal Degradation In this exercise, the average erosion rates along a country’s eroding coasts are extracted from the global dataset (mentioned earlier) on historical shoreline changes from 1984 to 2016 (Luijendijk et al. 2018). Following previous monetization studies, this analysis focuses on gross coastal e rosion, not net coastal erosion (gross erosion plus accretion) (see, for example, Croitoru, Miranda, and Sarraf 2019). This focus on gross coastal erosion also leads to erosion values that differ from those reported in table 5.1 and depicted in figure 5.2. In other words, this analysis does not include the value of the accretion of areas. This is largely because coastal erosion’s economic effects are always TABLE 5.1 Extent and Rates of Coastal Erosion in Selected North African Countries Share of coastline Share of coastline Long-term erosion Country subject to erosion (%) urbanized (%) Rate(m/yr) Area(ha/yr) Algeria 29 14.5 −2.1 −90.5 Libya 55 7.0 −0.9 −100.1 Morocco 54 6.6 −0.9 −139.9 Tunisia 59 15.0 −2.4 −247.3 Source: Heger and Vashold 2021, based on Luijendijk et al. 2018. Note: The shares of urbanized coastline are from 2017 data. All other values are annual averages from a dataset on historical shoreline changes from 1984 to 2016, based on Luijendijk et al. (2018). ha/yr = hectares per year; m/yr = meters per year. Blue Seas: Fighting Coastal Erosion 301 negative (because territory is lost), whereas coastal accretion effects can be negative or positive. For example, accretion near a harbor’s entrance may hinder ships from entering the port and lead to siltation of path- ways, necessitating dredging to maintain them. Similarly, when rivers are used for shipping from the ocean to inland destinations, accreted areas can block river entrances. Furthermore, even when accreted land is not detrimental by itself, it remains unclear whether it can be used for development or recreational purposes. In Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia, more than half the coastline is subject to coastal erosion, while lower shares are reported for Algeria (table 5.1). The rightmost column of table 5.1 shows yearly land loss from coastal erosion in the four countries—ranging from about 90 hectares in Algeria to almost 250 hectares in Tunisia. The subsequent calculations of yearly direct costs arising from shore retreat are based on these values. Quantifying the Costs of Coastal Degradation to Land Values and Built Assets To quantify the value of coastal land lost, the unit price of land per square meter in these countries was assessed, based on market data and, where available, official statistics.3 Prices of land near the coast differ substan- tially based on location. Urban land prices considerably exceed rural land prices.4 These assessments show that urban land is most expensive in Morocco and least expensive in Algeria (table 5.2). Rural land prices vary less between countries, ranging from US$20 per square meter in Algeria and Morocco to US$30 in Libya. The present value of annual rents for the next 30 years is then used as an estimate of the value of land. Some assumptions had to be made to calculate the present value of TABLE 5.2 Average Coastal Land Prices in Selected North African Countries, 2020 US$ per square meter Country Urban Rurala Algeria 350 20 Libya 480 30 Morocco 650 20 Tunisia 450 25 Source: Heger and Vashold 2021. Note: Estimates are based on rapid price assessment from a combination of online property portals and official sources (where available). a. Because of data constraints, the average rural land prices do not distinguish between land used explicitly for agriculture and land that may be a building plot. Hence, they are composite prices for rural areas. 302 Blue Skies, Blue Seas land. The rent-to-price ratio of land was assumed to be 8 percent, with rents increasing by 8 percent and 5 percent for urban and rural land, respectively. To account for agglomeration effects in coastal regions, average urbanization rates as estimated by the United Nations (UN) for the 30 years were used. Finally, a standard rate of 3 percent was used for discounting future rents forgone by erosion of coastal areas. The distinction between land prices due to location necessitates the classification of eroded land by land use. The ESA’s Global Land Cover database was used to determine the share of urban areas on the total coastline (shown in table 5.1). 5 More than 15 percent of Tunisia’s coasts and 14.5 percent of Algeria’s coasts are urbanized. This share is lower in the other countries: 7 percent in Libya and 6.6 percent in Morocco.6 To estimate the value of built housing assets destroyed per year, the estimated average replacement costs of buildings in coastal districts were adapted from data for 12 Middle East and North Africa economies (Dabbeek and Silva 2020). The numbers of dwellings, buildings, and population are downscaled to a fine grid (1 square kilometer) to estimate the economic value based on geographical location and physical charac- teristics. Aggregating these data for coastal districts in the four countries being considered here enables an estimate of the value of assets lost because of coastal erosion. 7 The land and built-asset destruction costs of coastal erosion in these four Maghreb countries are high, especially in Tunisia. They range from US$273 million per year in Libya to more than US$1.1 billion per year in Tunisia (table 5.3). Annual losses are equivalent to about 0.2 percent of GDP in Algeria, 0.4 percent in Morocco, 0.7 percent in Libya, and 2.8 percent in Tunisia. The estimates are conservative; they do not take into account losses in adjacent properties. Near-shore properties derive part of their value from their proximity to the sea and hence may be affected indirectly; their TABLE 5.3 Direct Economic Costs of Coastal Erosion in Selected North African Countries Cost metric Algeria Libya Morocco Tunisia Buildings lost (US$, millions) 3 1 8 29 Land lost (US$, millions) 310 272 425 1,078 Total losses (US$, millions) 313 273 434 1,107 Total losses (% of GDP) 0.2 0.7 0.4 2.8 Source: Heger and Vashold 2021. Note: The building-loss estimates are based on the replacement costs of dwellings and other buildings and do not take damages to infrastructure or reductions in value of undestroyed buildings and land explicitly into account. Values are averages computed using the average erosion rates shown in table 5.1. Blue Seas: Fighting Coastal Erosion 303 value will be reduced even if erosive forces do not directly destroy them (Fraser and Spencer 1998; Pompe and Rinehart 1995; Scott, Simpson, and Sim 2012). The negative effect of beach retreat on property values diminishes with distance, implying that properties near but not necessar- ily bordering the shore can be affected through negative spillover effects arising from erosion (Rinehart and Pompe 1994). These effects are not included in the estimates of direct costs; hence, the estimates should be viewed as rather conservative assessments of the overall costs due to coastal erosion in the countries discussed in this section. The effects on developments such as ports or industrial sites as well as on ecosystems are substantial but hard to quantify. The analysis above does not capture these specific effects, which would require detailed modeling of effects and costs of coastal erosion linked to these d evelopments—a task that is hardly possible at a national or regional scale. SLR and greater frequency of extreme weather events driven by cli- mate change will increase coastal erosion and its costs. Coastal flooding is exacerbated by shoreline retreat and causes significant losses for major cities in the Middle East and North Africa, increased by socioeconomic changes. For example, in Alexandria, a projected SLR of 20–40 centim- eters, subsidence, and measures to keep the flooding probability constant could lead to annual losses of US$504–US$581 million in 2050 because of coastal floods (Hallegatte et al. 2013). Lost Tourism Revenue from Coastal Areas Coastal erosion is an existential threat to tourism, a sector that contrib- utes significantly to GDP in many Middle East and North Africa econo- mies. Probably the largest share of the costs of coastal erosion, especially in the long term, will be indirect by reducing revenues resulting from tourism in affected areas.8 Forgone revenues from tourism are a severe threat, especially for countries where “blue” tourism represents a large part of their revenues. As noted earlier, the tourism sector accounts for more than 10 percent of GDP In several of the region’s economies (Heger and Vashold 2021). For example, Morocco and especially Tunisia depend heavily on tour- ism, which in turn largely depends on their beaches. In Morocco, over 12 million international visitors were recorded in 2018, with receipts totaling more than US$9.5 billion (around 8 percent of GDP), accord- ing to data from the UN World Tourism Organization (UNWTO 2019), and tourism activities account for more than half of the country’s export services. Considering indirect economic impacts as well, tourism accounted for 18.6 percent of Morocco’s GDP in 2017 and 16.4 percent of employment (Kasmi et al. 2020). 304 Blue Skies, Blue Seas In Tunisia, tourism-related activity accounted for 14.2 percent of GDP in 2018 and employed more than 2 million (Saidani 2019). International tourists alone contributed over US$2.3 billion to the economy, repre- senting around 6 percent of GDP in 2018 (based on UNWTO data). Given that more than 90 percent of the country’s recorded tourist bed nights were spent in coastal areas ( Jeffrey and Bleasdale 2017), the eco- nomic threat posed by the disappearance of beaches due to coastal ero- sion should be recognized. Beachgoer Surveys: Willingness to Return, Willingness to Pay Coastal erosion would discourage tourists from visiting the region’s coasts. International evidence, whereby tourists are asked whether they would return to an area if the coast were eroded, shows that coastal ero- sion significantly affects tourism. However, the propensity of tourists to visit a certain location does not decrease in a linear fashion with advancing beach retreat. For example, in a survey carried out at beaches in the US state of Delaware, around two-thirds of visitors stated that a reduction of a beach’s width to a quarter of its current size would worsen their experi- ence, and one-third indicated that they would reduce their number of visits (Parsons et al. 2013). For California beaches narrower than 20 meters, a reduction in width is associated with much larger decreases in the propensity of recreational visitors to come back than when initial beach width is larger than 20 meters (Pendleton et al. 2012). In Barbados, tourists’ aversion to returning is especially strong if beaches are less than 8–10 meters wide (Schuhmann et al. 2016). A similar nonlinear relation can be found regarding the speed of erosion, where surveys reveal that faster beach retreat led to a disproportionate reduction in consumer surplus, and hence propensity to revisit, compared with slower retreat (Huang et al. 2011). In the extreme case, disappearance of beaches could lead to total losses if tourists decide not to visit the affected areas anymore, as several surveys showed: • Most respondents to a survey conducted in a Hawaiian town stated that they would not consider staying in a hotel should the nearby beach completely erode (Tarui, Peng, and Eversole 2018). • More than three-quarters of surveyed tourists in Barbados were u nwilling to return for the same price should beaches largely disappear; this was associated with a 46 percent decrease in tourism revenues (Schuhmann et al. 2016). • Along two stretches of the Australian coast, large shares (exceeding 50 percent) of surveyed tourists stated that major erosion events would Blue Seas: Fighting Coastal Erosion 305 lead them to switch to other destinations. The associated losses would equate to more than US$75 million per year (Raybould et al. 2013). Hence, the retreat of beaches could lead to severe economic losses, espe- cially in regions that are primarily visited for their beaches, as is the case in many coastal-tourism destinations in the Middle East and North Africa. These findings imply that the relationship between tourists’ unwillingness to return and beach width can be thought of as having a shape like the one depicted in figure 5.3. In coastal districts, a higher share of open or flat coastlines (that is, intact beaches) is a significant determinant of higher accommodation prices (Hamilton 2007). In Spain’s northeast territory of Catalonia, hotels along the Costa Brava that are near a beach with “Blue Flag c ertification” have room prices that are more than 10 percent higher on average (Rigall-I-Torrent et al. 2011) than hotels without such a nearby beach. FIGURE 5.3 Stylized Relationship between Beach Width and Visitors’ Unwillingness to Return Beach width Source: Heger and Vashold 2021. Unwillingness to return 306 Blue Skies, Blue Seas Blue Flag certification indicates that the beach and seawater quality meet certain standards and that beach management also meets specific environmental standards. Both Morocco and Tunisia are part of this pro- gram, and efforts to extend its scope are ongoing to accommodate tour- ists’ changing attitudes. The revenues of hotels near retreating beaches are likely to decrease because the amenity value for tourists decreases if the beach quality deteriorates. One way to estimate the indirect cost of coastal erosion is to ask individuals their preferences about avoiding eroded beaches and asking them to monetize those preferences. This “willingness-to-pay” measure reflects the amount of money that residents and tourists would be willing to pay for beach-saving initiatives such as beach nourishment or building offshore safeguards. The nature of these surveys, which build to a certain extent on respondents’ attachment to the region under consideration, limits their practical use to small geographical units such as individual beaches or beaches on a certain island. However, their importance for informing policy makers about possible sources for financing such pre- cautionary measures is not negligible, and some lessons can be drawn from such analyses. Interventions that increase beach width (such as beach nourishment) are often viewed more positively than other interventions that mitigate coastal erosion. Beach nourishment refers to the filling of a certain beach with sand or similar sediment to restore the width (or area) lost to coastal erosion. Studies have found that large portions of survey participants respond positively to such interventions. A large-scale survey in North Carolina found that almost half the respondents were in favor of beach nourishment to increase beach width, which (using an econometric model) is estimated to lead to more beach trips (Whitehead et al. 2008, 2010). These results have been confirmed by other studies (Landry and Liu 2009, 2011). On the other hand, some interventions may decrease the propensity to return. Beachgoers tend to take fewer trips to beaches that have sand dunes and jetties. A study on beaches in New Hampshire and Maine found that erosion leads to an average of 1.36 fewer trips per resident. Where an erosion-control program prevents erosion, the impact was attenuated; however, respondents would still take 1.01 fewer trips. Hence, erosion control can be desirable, but the potential negative impacts on the beach environment can offset the benefits of decreased erosion (Huang et al. 2011). Studies have shown the potentially high losses of tourist revenue stemming from coastal erosion in the Middle East and North Africa. For example, tourists visiting North Africa’s largest island—Djerba Island in Blue Seas: Fighting Coastal Erosion 307 Tunisia—would be willing to contribute over €5 million a year for a pro- ject to reduce coastal erosion (Dribek and Voltaire 2017). (For the effects of coastal erosion on a Djerba Island hotel, see photo 5.3.) This figure implies that beach preservation measures to reduce coastal erosion may be financed largely by contributions from tourists9 and also measures PHOTO 5.3 Effects of Coastal Erosion on Hotel les Sirenes, Djerba Island, Tunisia, 1992–2019 Sources: Oueslati, Labidi, and Elamri 2015; Heger and Vashold 2021. 1992 and 2013 photos: © Ameur Oueslati / Agence de protection et d’aménagement du littoral (APAL). 2016 and 2019 photos: © 2020 CNES/Airbus, courtesy of Google Earth. Permission required for reuse. 308 Blue Skies, Blue Seas the value that tourists attribute to intact beaches. Moreover, it implies a modest contribution of under US$3 per tourist per year. Djerba hosted about 25 percent of the 9 million tourists who visited Tunisia in 2019, or about 2 million tourists. For a similar region in Morocco—the Tetouan coast with its main tourist beaches—total eroded surface in the period 1958–2018 amounted to approximately 490 hectares (Benkhattab et al. 2020). Drawing on these numbers and projections about future beach retreat, lost revenues to the economy due to the retreat of these beaches alone could total US$190 billion in the next few decades (Flayou et al. 2017).10 Other Analyses Other approaches that quantify the economic effects of coastal erosion also highlight large potential losses to the local economy. They may use information on beach attributes such as their width, land value, and char- acteristics of nearby hotels (for example, room price) to directly estimate reductions of land values and revenues due to coastal erosion in the framework of hedonic price regressions. Using such an approach, the decrease in beach width due to coastal erosion in Rethymnon on the Greek island of Crete could lead to rev- enue losses amounting to around €18.5 million in the next 10 years because of the progressing retreat of a single beach (Alexandrakis, Manasakis, and Kampanis 2015). The impact of SLR on beach tourism in Sahl Hasheesh and Makadi Bay on the Red Sea in Egypt is expected to lead to losses in revenues that could exceed US$350,000 per day in 2050 (Sharaan, Somphog, and Udo 2020). Similar studies show beach-surface reduction to have a decisive negative impact on the overall image of tour- ist destinations, decreasing the number of arrivals and hence reducing receipts from them (Bitan and Zviely 2019; Raybould et al. 2013; Scott, Simpson, and Sim 2012). Therefore, direct losses due to coastal erosion are only a fraction of total losses to the economy, not considering the impact on tourism and other development activities (such as ports and so on) as well as ecosys- tems. Considering the evidence on indirect losses attributable to coastal erosion, the analysis of direct costs of coastal erosion presented in the previous section (“Costs from Destruction of Land Values and Built Assets”) provides only a conservative estimate of the total costs of this phenomenon to Middle East and North Africa economies. Accounting for lost future revenues is crucial for assessing the real costs of coastal erosion. Furthermore, coastal erosion processes can lead to lost jobs and reduced tax revenues from ports and near-shore indus- tries dependent on intact coasts. Another important point to consider is that coastal erosion may permanently damage ecosystems that can be Blue Seas: Fighting Coastal Erosion 309 important income sources, such as for fisheries. However, quantifying the effects on these sectors is extremely challenging and out of the scope of this report. POLICY REVIEW: HOW TO COMBAT COASTAL EROSION This section first discusses the principles for sustainably managing the coastline and effectively avoiding coastal erosion in the Middle East and North Africa. It then highlights priority recommendations for policies and actions that the region’s economies can take to combat coastal erosion. Managing and effectively avoiding coastal erosion necessitates detailed information on coastal dynamics. Therefore, the section next reviews the general drivers of coastal erosion and highlights the paucity of this infor- mation in the Middle East and North Africa, arguing that to plan interven- tions effectively, such gaps in the evidence basis must be filled. Finally, the section presents a comprehensive review of actions and recommendations for reducing the effects of coastal erosion, including ICZM planning; forward (prospective) management strategies; reac- tive mitigation (such as defensive investments) including NBS; and preventive policies (such as banning sand mining). The objective is not to present a detailed pathway with concrete recommended options for each city and country—which would be a futile task given the paucity of evidence on the sources—but rather to present a menu of options with priority recommendations that can be beneficial to many countries. ICZM: Principles and Benefits of Sustainable Coastline Management To be successful, ICZM requires continuous assessments of the coast as well as engagement of all stakeholders at all stages (figure 5.4). Given the proper identification of the sources of coastal erosion (with the aid of data, monitoring, and analysis) and consideration of different stakeholders’ claims, suitable strategies can be formulated to tackle the challenge posed by coastal erosion. These include prospective management, such as risk assessment for different parts of the shoreline, and appropriate zoning. Participation of local communities and other stakeholders is a key element in designing successful strategies. Once the coastal erosion problems are identified, the question becomes one of adapting to the challenge, presented in figure 5.4 under “reactive management and control measures.” The adaptation options include either (a) defending developments where possible (using hard defenses, soft defenses, or both, including natural solutions and NBS); or 310 Blue Skies, Blue Seas FIGURE 5.4 Key Elements of Sustainable Coast Management to Mitigate Coastal-Erosion Effects Identification of erosion sources and hot spots Stakeholder Data, engagement monitoring, Integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) and analysis for mitigation of coastal-erosion effects Prospective management through zoning Reactive management and control measures Defense solutions Hard defense, soft defense, and nature-based solutions Control policies Development-related regulations and sediment-relatedregulations Source: Original figure prepared for this publication. (b) avoiding impacts where such defenses are not possible (by managing the retreat). Complementary work on river-basin management may also be nec- essary because interference in natural processes—through reduction in river flow from abstraction for upstream water use, urbanization, loss of natural flooding regimes, and dam regulation—may all affect the flow of sediment to the coast. Regulatory controls may vary from ban- ning sand mining to modifying dam operations in order to limit losses from trapped sediment. The “Comprehensive Policies and Actions for Reducing Coastal Erosion” section later reviews the experiences of Middle East and North Africa economies as well as international best-practice examples in coastal management and combating coastal erosion. Managing coastal development will bring important cross-benefits for coastal issues beyond mitigation of coastal erosion. Coastal zones are major contributors to the continued flow of plastics into the Middle East and North Africa’s seas, together with plastic waste deposited by rivers. Hence, setting up a comprehensive ICZM scheme that includes improved waste management processes (for both solid waste and efflu- ent discharge) will reduce the amount of plastics ending up in marine spaces. Furthermore, clear development plans in such schemes could involve coordinated measures to reduce plastic waste in coastal zones, Blue Seas: Fighting Coastal Erosion 311 whether it has been dumped there or deposited by waves from the open sea. Similarly, setting up a comprehensive development plan is crucial to ensure that coasts are used in the most productive and most sustain- able fashion. This, together with the increased protection from coastal erosion, would lead to more efficient use and valorization of these assets while also protecting them for future generations. Setting in motion sustainable management schemes for coastal devel- opment will contribute to greener, more resilient, and more inclusive development (the GRID path) in the Middle East and North Africa. Coastal erosion comes with large adverse effects on human development (that is, built infrastructure) as well as on local ecosystems in the region (as discussed earlier in the chapter). Long-term management of coastal development under the tenets of an ICZM scheme will hence benefit coastal communities and local biodiversity in various ways: • Limiting uncontrolled development will reduce conflicts among stakeholders and ensure that the gains from using coastal assets will be distributed more justly and sustainably, providing income sources for those depending on intact coasts. • Restoring ecosystems using NBS will not only reduce coastal erosion but also provide habitats for local flora and fauna, greening the region’s coasts. • Actively involving local communities in such revitalization efforts implies additional income-generating activities for these communi- ties, especially for the poor (given the high labor intensity of such work). • Promoting more environmentally friendly coasts and beaches can maintain tourism while also encouraging development of new ecotourism ventures. Thus, successfully managing the coasts and mitigating their erosion will contribute to putting Middle East and North Africa’s economies on a GRID path and ensure that these important natural assets remain the boon to future generations that they have been to others for so long. Priority Recommendations for Combating Coastal Erosion Better management of coastal-erosion risks will benefit the Middle East and North Africa region. Climate change exacerbates these risks. This section discusses three priorities, based on their effectiveness in combat- ing coastal erosion, their economic and social benefits, and their level of interdependence with other policies and interventions. 312 Blue Skies, Blue Seas No. 1: Understand the Drivers of Coastal Erosion and Improve Access to This Data Understanding the drivers of coastal erosion is a prerequisite for many interventions. First, identifying and monitoring the erosion hot spots are critical preconditions (as further discussed later in this section). In the selected hot spots, identifying the drivers of coastal erosion is critical to inform the planning for interventions to reduce erosion. Because the local drivers of coastal erosion are site-specific, the most effective and efficient solutions also vary across these sites. Source-identification analysis includes monitoring and computational modeling of coastal morphology, sediment flows, and fluid mechanics as well as the impact of coastal development. This entails analysis of river flows and the impacts of (a) upstream river-basin development schemes on coastal wetlands, (b) sediment flows on shoreline replenishment pro- cesses, and (c) particular activities such as extraction of gravel and sands from rivers and beaches. Finally, the data and related information must be made publicly avail- able to build public engagement, awareness, and consensus for future policy reforms. Data-based impact analysis is critical for designing solutions for coastal-defense investments and for environmental impact assessments of ICZM plans, including new developments. The trans- boundary nature of coastal erosion also makes regional cooperation on data and information sharing important to identify drivers of the phenomenon across country borders. No. 2: Engage Stakeholders in ICZM Planning at All Levels Multistakeholder participation in ICZM planning at the municipal, national, and regional (subnational and multinational) levels is key for the design of effective solutions for combating coastal erosion. Coastal-zone management requires a holistic approach that includes all stakeholders—for example, port authorities, fishers, hotels, utility service providers, nature conservation spe- cialists, cultural heritage authorities, restaurants, technical specialists, and representatives of local communities (more on this in the “Comprehensive Policies and Actions for Reducing Coastal Erosion” section). Thus, joining forces is an important step to take in parallel with launching the data collec- tion, analysis, and monitoring effort. Doing so across country borders would be an important step to address joint efforts and maximize the effectiveness of ICZM schemes. ICZM also needs to use multistakeholder processes to identify hazardous and ecologically vulnerable areas, areas designated for development, and measures for reducing erosion. Comprehensive ICZM planning, both spatial and temporal, will help ensure coastal sustainability and combat erosion—all while identifying economic opportunities and supporting efficient coastal development Blue Seas: Fighting Coastal Erosion 313 plans, which differ across coastal areas and shape the site-specific responses to coastal erosion. A comprehensive ICZM plan will help inform policies through not only prospective management and development but also reac- tive management and control interventions, as discussed in detail in the “Comprehensive Policies and Actions for Reducing Coastal Erosion” section. As m entioned earlier, implementing such an ICZM scheme will also bring cross- benefits by reducing marine-plastic pollution of the seas and coasts. Through the consultation with all relevant stakeholders and consideration of their needs, the introduction of ICZM schemes also directly c ontributes to more inclusive development in general. No. 3: Use Nature-Based Solutions on Land and Sea Nature-based solutions (NBS) can combat coastal erosion and restore coastal and marine ecosystems. Using NBS in the seas, coastal wetlands, and along shorelines can increase coastline resilience by weakening incoming waves and inland winds and by retaining and stabilizing sedi- ments. (For more on these approaches, see the later subsection on soft defenses under “Reactive Management and Control Measures.”) Increasing vegetation cover through the planting or restoration of (a) seagrass fields within marine ecosystems, mangroves, and other natural vegetation in coastal wetlands and shorelines; and (b) marshes and other flora on coastal dunes will help improve habitats and stabilize sand dunes, beaches, wetlands, and natural coastal protection processes. Restoring coral reefs in the Red Sea and RSA can help combat erosion by diminishing wave energy. Importantly, these efforts should take into account the preexisting natural landscape to avoid disturbing the local flora and fauna. And all these natural interventions require supporting environmental policies. NBS offer multiple benefits in addition to coastal resilience, including carbon sequestration, biodiversity, and coastal ecosystem restoration. They also can be used for educational purposes and provide lasting benefits to the tourism sector. And, given the labor-intensive nature of these interventions, the environmental benefits are accompanied by economic opportunities. Moreover, relying on the knowledge of the local population regardless of gender or educational background is key for a successful implementation of NBS. Hence, their broader use also contributes directly to longer-term, inclusive economic development through sustainable management of natural resources—very much in line with a GRID framework. One Must Measure What One Would Manage: The Sources of Coastal Erosion Before one can effectively manage coastal erosion and ensure the sus- tainability of the coastline, one must first understand the spatial patterns 314 Blue Skies, Blue Seas (where) of coastal erosion (hot spots) and the reasons why (how) the erosion is occurring. Knowing where and how coastal erosion occurs requires a holistic approach using data, monitoring, and analysis as well as stakeholder engagement to sustainably plan ahead for mitigating the risks of coastal erosion. These elements, as well as the evaluation of potential solutions, are essential before putting the necessary policies into place. Although the particular sources of coastal erosion along an individual part of the coast are very site-specific, some general drivers are known to cause changes in the coastal landscape, not only in the Middle East and North Africa but globally. This section identifies these general driv- ers and how they might be affecting coastlines. However, for a specific part of the coast, multiple sources may be acting together to shape the coastal landscape, with specific dynamics and their sources varying across the coastline. It is hence important to account for local characteristics to effectively combat coastal erosion at a specific site, necessitating detailed antecedent analyses. Furthermore, as this section lays out, human interventions at one site may influence erosive processes at others. Hence, it is also important to consider coastal dynamics (such as sediment transport across local hot spots) in an integrated manner. For the Middle East and North Africa, such detailed studies of flow dynamics along the coast and site-specific sources of coastal erosion are limited, increasing the difficulties of tack- ling coastal erosion effectively. Overview of Coastal Erosion Drivers in the Middle East and North Africa Various factors drive changes in the coastal landscape and coastal erosion—some occurring naturally and others induced by human a ctivities (figure 5.5). Direct anthropogenic drivers include coastal subsidence (due to heavy infrastructure near the coast or aquifer-water extraction), coastal infrastructure (such as ports and marinas), defense developments, and land reclamation. Natural physical forcing elements such as storms, SLR, and currents are exacerbated by human-induced climate change (Sytnik et al. 2018). Coastal areas with different tidal dynamics and wave-energy inci- dences demonstrate unique coastal morphologies (Hayes and FitzGerald 2013). Fluvial and alongshore sediment transport are major morpho- dynamic processes that determine the shape of the coastline (Sytnik et al. 2018) and often determine how the coast is divided into management cells. Human interventions, such as ports or groins, intervene in the hydrodynamic processes along the shoreline. Often, these interventions Blue Seas: Fighting Coastal Erosion 315 FIGURE 5.5 Major Factors Affecting Coastal Morphology, Including Coastal Erosion Source: Giardino et al. 2018. Available under Creative Commons Attribution license (CC BY-NC-ND). stabilize areas through sediment buildup in one location, but they starve the sediment and intensify the erosion rate at other locations; in extreme instances, poorly informed adaptation measures may cause more damage than doing nothing (Hoggart et al. 2014). Coastal and inland development can exacerbate coastal erosion locally and at other sites, as shown by examples in the Middle East and North Africa. Because of the blocking of sediment transport, structures further upstream can cause or accelerate erosion of downstream coastlines. Although the 2010 expansion of the commercial port Tanger-Med in northern Morocco included an environmental impact assessment (EIA) with a desk-based assessment of known archeological sites, the port’s presence has affected the coastline at the nearby archeological site of Ksar es-Seghir (Trakadas 2020). In addition, there is a lack of environ- mental and social impact assessment (ESIA) regarding coastal erosion in the region. These circumstances highlight potential insufficiencies in the understanding of erosion processes and their proper incorporation into EIAs and ESIAs. 316 Blue Skies, Blue Seas As illustrated in figure 5.5, the construction of a dam inland can have negative effects on sediment transport by the river on which it is built. While this alone has adverse effects on coastal regions at the mouth, coastal protection measures along the coast can also trap sediments that would otherwise feed the coastline. River deltas can be starved of replenishment by upstream construction; combined with coastal construction, the impacts on coastlines can be severe. An example is at the Rosetta promontory in the Nile delta, where the con- struction of 15 groins has exacerbated the erosive forces caused by the building of the Aswan High Dam. These groins have led to a reversal from accretion to fast erosion along the leeside of the promontory, with some segments exhibiting erosion rates as high as 30.8 meters per year (Ghoneim et al. 2015). The following brief discussion of key drivers of coastal erosion in the Middle East and North Africa provides a concise view of the issues the region faces. It includes drivers stemming from both anthropogenic sources and natural forces that have been, and will be, exacerbated by climate change. Dam Construction Many rivers in the region have been dammed to provide water supplies, control flooding, and produce hydroelectric power, with the unintended consequences of reducing flows of sediment to the coast (Syvitski et al. 2005). Diminishing sediment flows can be important drivers of coastal erosion, reducing beach areas and eroding shorelines, as seen with Egypt’s Aswan High Dam (Masria et al. 2015b) and with the Moulouya River in Morocco, where dams capture over 90 percent of the sediment supply (Snoussi, Haïda, and Imassi 2002). Such sediment-flow issues also threaten the dam’s functions because as sediment is trapped, the dam’s capacity decreases. Thus, it is crucial to use various techniques proven internationally to manage sediment flows for dams (Kondolf et al. 2014). Subsidence Ground deformation is a severe geological hazard in the Middle East and North Africa. It results mainly from anthropogenic activities such as fluid extraction or injection, underground excavations, and construction expansion. The Islamic Republic of Iran is one of the most-affected countries in the Middle East because of groundwater overexploitation and 30 years of drought affecting large cities such as Mashhad, Neyshabour, Rafsanjan, and Tehran (Fattahi 2019; Khorrami et al. 2020). Coastal subsidence over time negatively affects farmland, urban areas, and w astewater infrastructure, and it can cause cracks in roads and water and natural-gas pipes. Blue Seas: Fighting Coastal Erosion 317 The United Arab Emirates is also at great risk because its ground- water use is 20 times higher than the natural recharge rate, where 60 percent of its consumption comes from aquifers, compared with 29 percent from desalination plants and 6 percent from water recycling (Construction Week 2015). And Alexandria, Egypt, is a well-known example of sediment compaction in the Nile delta that provokes land subsidence, thereby enhancing the effects of climate- induced SLR, as further described in the SLR subsection below (Syvitski et al. 2009). Dredging The Gulf region has been active in dredging for both navigation (that is, channels for ships) and land reclamation in the past few years (Kloosterman 2010). Efforts to facilitate commercial, recreational, and navigational activities have important effects on coastal waterways, inlets, and bays—altering currents and wave patterns, creating hydrau- lic mining, and moving sediment. Shallow deltas and inlets that once constrained the outward flow of freshwater and held the salt sea at bay are now hydraulic superhighways because of dredging. This process also fosters the loss of coastal freshwater aquifers to saltwater infiltra- tion, affecting water treatment and distribution plants and potable water sources for human consumption. Sand Mining Sand mining—extraction of sand from sandy areas on the coasts or along riverbanks, mostly for construction and industrial uses—has been a prob- lem in the Middle East and North Africa, particularly in Morocco. In Morocco, coastal sand mining, often illegal, has been rising with the increase in construction and real estate development (Aldar.ma 2019) and has increased erosion along vulnerable coastlines. Around half of the sand used annually in Morocco (about 10 million cubic meters) is from illegal coastal sand mining. Illegal sand mining operations can, at the extreme, leave behind bare beaches such as a large beach between Safi and Essaouria (along the Atlantic coast of Morocco) that became rocky terrain (UNEP 2019). Coastlines weakened by mining are also more vulnerable to the impact of storms, further accelerating beach erosion. The coastline of Asilah, Morocco, has been severely damaged because of the increased demand for sand to mix with cement for urban construction. Similar opera- tions have been documented along the Atlantic shoreline in Larache or Kenitra and farther south in Morocco, as well as in Algeria (Coastal Care 2009, 2020; Greene 2016). Sand mining can also affect dune replenish- ment as well as the integrity of coastal marshes. 318 Blue Skies, Blue Seas Storm Surge Storm-induced erosion and coastal flooding are the two most important natural hazards to coastal systems worldwide and are interdependent (Kron 2013). In some cases, storms and storm surges, exacerbated by SLR, are the principal cause of erosion (Katz and Mushkin 2013; Nicholls et al. 2007). Storm surges severely affect coastal regions in the southern Mediterranean, and low-lying areas are especially vulnerable (Satta et al. 2017). Middle East and North Africa countries exposed directly to the Indian Ocean (for example, Djibouti, Oman, and the Republic of Yemen) are also regularly exposed to tropical storms, whereas the west coast of Morocco is exposed to Atlantic storms (Becker et al. 2013; Knapp et al. 2010). By 2100, SLR and storm surges in Tangier, Morocco, will affect a projected 34.8 percent of its urban area, 99.9 percent of its port infra- structure, and 36 percent of its roads (Snoussi et al. 2009; World Bank 2014, 127). Storm-surge zones are also projected to increase this cen- tury by 84 percent in Egypt, 57 percent in Algeria, 54 percent in Libya, 30 percent in Morocco, and 27 percent in Tunisia (Dasgupta et al. 2009). Sea Level Rise Rising seas contribute to faster coastline retreat, particularly in low-lying areas (Stive, Ranasinghe, and Cowell 2010). Since 1990, the rate of SLR in the Mediterranean has been above the global average (Tsimplis and Baker 2000). Atmospheric influence is thought to be the primary driver: pressure and wind variations associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation control water flow through the Straits of Gibraltar (Gomis et al. 2006; Landerer and Volkov 2013; Tsimplis et al. 2013). Compared with the well-studied Mediterranean, tide-gauge records in the Red Sea and the RSA are much sparser because they are noncontinuous and limited to a few years.11 A stronger rise in the Arabian Sea than in the Mediterranean is projected under both a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 scenario (a 1.5 degrees Celsius world) and an RCP 8.5 scenario (a 4 degrees Celsius world).12 Under the latter scenario, Muscat is expected to experience a median SLR of 0.64 meters, and Tunis an SLR of 0.56 meters, by the last decades of the century (2081–2100). The most-affected cities in the region include Muscat (12.0 millimeters per year), Alexandria (10.9 millimeters per year), Tangier (10.2 millimeters per year), and Tunis (10.1 millimeters per year) under an RCP 8.5 sce- nario (World Bank 2014). Among these cities, Alexandria is projected to lose the most local value added as a result of damages from SLR by 2050 (Hallegate et al. 2013). These changes in the sea level are a major Blue Seas: Fighting Coastal Erosion 319 potential threat to coastal areas because of the cumulative effect of SLR and long-term shoreline retreat. How to Understand These Sources of Coastal Erosion As discussed above, data, monitoring, and analysis form the cornerstone of effective coastal erosion mitigation and management, specifically for ICZM plans. Data on factors such as sediment flows, erosion rates, coastal and marine physical processes, and infrastructure and development are critical for monitoring, analysis, and determination of informed engi- neered and other solutions and interventions. These data will help all stakeholders to understand areas of accretion, areas of erosion, and sedi- ment feed, which in turn help to identify hot spots, erosion sources, and zones for intervention. Monitoring the coasts for risk management, identifying threat lev- els, and implementing immediate interventions are also important. Monitoring also aids the process of keeping records that could also be used for analysis. Both data and monitoring aid the analysis process through various tools and computational modeling to identify sources, risks, hot spots, and potential solutions. First, it is necessary to understand the degree of coastal erosion in a location-specific way—by identifying and analyzing the hot spots. Coastal erosion is highly dependent on localized physical processes such as fluid mechanics and sediment balance and flows, meaning that although there may be severe erosion in one area, the adjacent area can behave very differently. Analyzing hot spots at a comprehensive yet granular scale (as done in the close analyses of Moroccan and Tunisian coastlines, elaborated earlier in the chapter) is an important first step. Extending the hot-spot analysis to cover as much of the Middle East and North Africa’s coasts as possible is desirable. With such analyses in hand, sites where actions are needed in a timely manner can be identified, and policy makers and researchers could prioritize these sites. Second, why does coastal erosion occur in a selected hot spot? Once the hot spots of erosion along the coast have been identified, more-detailed analyses of prevalent dynamics (for example, the morphological cycle or sediment transport) of these sites is crucial. In addition, anthropogenic perturbations, such as those highlighted earlier (dam construction, harbor construction, sand mining, coastal subsidence, SLR, and so forth) must be modeled covering larger spatial scales because, for example, changes up-current can have down-current effects. Implementing measures with- out precise knowledge of coastal dynamics (spatially and temporally) can worsen the effects of coastal erosion. This was the case for the Rosetta promontory in Egypt’s Nile delta region, where the construction of defense structures has exacerbated the effects of coastal erosion at other 320 Blue Skies, Blue Seas sites (Ghoneim et al. 2015). It is important to study the effects of different measures at different sites to avoid unintended side effects. Measures to combat coastal erosion also require knowledge of geo- morphological characteristics. In addition to knowing how sediment is transported along the coast, it is important to know what types of sediments are predominant in certain areas such as beaches. For some defense solutions, it is important to consider existing structure and granularity. Using sand that is too different in its characteristics (for example, desert sand versus coastal sand) to refill beaches will undermine these efforts and will get washed away quickly. Erosion Data Gathering, Monitoring, and Modeling within the Region Detailed sediment budgets and numerical models are important tools to understand coastal changes in the Middle East and North Africa. Such analyses have the potential to uncover important sediment dynamics along coasts influenced not only by coastal developments such as ports but also by inland structures such as dams. Although such models have been employed at some specific sites along the region’s coasts, a compre- hensive analysis of these dynamics would allow for the incorporation of transboundary effects of sediment transport and its effects on coastal ero- sion. In West Africa, such modeling exercises were recently undertaken (box 5.2). Such analysis provides policy makers with a comprehensive and easy-to-use tool to simulate the impact of different coastal developments and climate change on coastal sediment transport and in turn on coastal erosion. In the Middle East and North Africa, monitoring and analyses of sediments, coastal changes, and human intervention relevant to coastal erosion have been carried out only for some areas, but comprehensive modeling for the entire coast is needed. For example, a 25-year study (1990–2014) investigated coastal erosion rates and sources along the Nile delta coast (Ali and El-Magd 2016). Tools such as geographic information systems (GIS) and sediment- budget computational modeling are normally used for such analysis, including statistical and physical data. Studies that investigate the behavior of sediment transport on a large scale have the advantage of incorporating and allowing for evaluation of effects that various changes in certain parts of the coastal landscape have on other parts of the shore- line. Identifying sources and sediment flows can inform the analysis to identify potential solutions and analyze their potential to prevent coastal erosion, mitigate its impacts, or both. The sources and hot spots of coastal erosion become part of the input that aids such analysis to come up with sustainable measures, policies, and designs of engineered solu- tions. The information from sediment studies provides useful inputs in Blue Seas: Fighting Coastal Erosion 321 BOX 5.2 Sediment Budgets and Numerical Modeling in West Africa West African coasts have undergone high included 15 spatially more explicit models rates of coastal retreat because of changes to ensure sufficient spatial resolution. in the wave-driven alongshore transport of • A hydrological model that takes into account sand. These changes are largely caused by land use and soil maps as well as meteoro- human developments such as river dams or logical data was used to compute the harbor jetties and have led to severe ero- annual runoff that influences the sedi- sion on the order of 10 meters per year at ment yield from West Africa’s major some locations. In a large-scale project, the rivers. World Bank’s West Africa Coastal Areas Management Program (WACA) partnered • A shoreline-evolution model was employed with the Dutch research company Deltaresa to simulate coastal evolution. It calculates to set up a coastal sediment budget for the magnitude of alongshore sediment Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Togo. transport for specific locations along the This involved estimating annual alongshore coast, considering wave-induced drift, sediment transport capacity using numerical tidal flow, or both. It used information on modeling to quantitatively assess the effects coastal orientation and local wave angles of different human interventions. to carry out long-term simulations at Illustrating the implications of large spatial scales. interventions on the evolution of the coast The analysis allows simulation of the impacts and transboundary effects, together with of different changes in the coastal landscape the effects of climate change, the model under different climatic or meteorological provided an important awareness-raising conditions. Scenarios that can be assessed tool for decision-makers. The project include major anthropogenic developments developed a digital coastal viewer to such as ports or dams, rising sea levels, facilitate communications to the different and changes in wave height and direction stakeholders who were both affected due to climate change. Hence, it provides by changes in the coastal landscape and researchers and policy makers with an responsible for these changes. efficient tool to model and investigate the The numerical approach in the modeling effects of changes in coastal development exercise developed three submodels in an and measures deemed to reduce sediment integrated framework: blockage or coastal erosion. Including • A large-scale wave model was employed to the effects of climate change allows for simulate wave propagation from offshore the evaluation of shoreline changes in the to nearshore, taking into account wind long term. Given its large scale, the generation, dissipation, and nonlinear simulations lend themselves to the analysis wave-wave interactions. It covered of possible transboundary effects of coastal the complete West African coast and interventions at specific hot spots. Source: Giardino et al. 2018. a. For more information, see the Deltares website: https://www.deltares.nl/en/. 322 Blue Skies, Blue Seas planning new development. Extensive simulation studies have been used, for example, in the design stage of the Al-Faw Grand Port in southeast Iraq (box 5.3). Numerical analyses can be used for assessing the potential effective- ness of different protective measures. For example, the Rosetta promon- tory on Egypt’s Nile delta coast has been the subject of several scientific studies investigating the hydrodynamics and sediment-flow dynamics BOX 5.3 Iraq’s Al-Faw Grand Port: Computational Modeling to Eliminate Coastal Erosion Computational modeling of hydrod ynamics long) as well as additional ones placed along and sediment processes were important the north and south boundaries of the navy tools in the design and assessment stages base embankment (Technital, n.d.). of development and construction of the Morphological studies were also conducted Al-Faw Grand Port. The port will be for the final design of Al-Faw Grand Port to located in southeast Iraq, along the Kawr assess the effects of the port’s construction Abdallah Channel, near the mouth of the on the morphology of the surrounding Shatt Al-Arab waterway that runs between coastline, on the Shatt Al-Arab delta, and on Iraq and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Its erosion and accretion rates surrounding the design takes into account not only techni- port. The computational modeling assessing cal navigational aspects but also other sur- these various effects predicted that there rounding ongoing project interferences and will be no impacts overall (for example, morphological and hydrodynamic effects, no local coastline changes surrounding the thus optimizing the port’s location and port and no impacts on the Shatt Al-Arab l ayout (Technital, n.d.). delta). Nonetheless, the model did predict The master plan considered many the accretion of muddy sediment into the technical aspects, including the results of port, thereby aiding the design process to geotechnical and hydrodynamic studies. account for this and optimize the design, It included the construction of two large considering hydrodynamic processes to breakwaters, at the east and the west of the reduce port siltation and move the sediment port, the former being around 8 kilometers out of the port.a long and the latter almost 14 kilometers The Al-Faw Grand Port illustrates long. The plans account for possible the value of computational modeling in quays and yards extensions in the future predicting, designing, and assessing in a and included large dredging works and circular approach to arrive at an optimal rock revetments of the reclaimed port design and avoid coastal erosion from embankments (approximately 13 kilometers coastal projects of this kind. a. For a more detailed description of the computational modeling, see the Deltares project page, “Morphological Studies for Al Faw Port”: https://www.deltares.nl/en/projects/morphological-studies -al-faw-port/. Blue Seas: Fighting Coastal Erosion 323 of different protective measures (box 5.4). Such simulations allow for closer inspection of different measures and their effects and can hence aid decision-making in an evidence-based manner before implementa- tion. These studies are sparse, however, often because comprehensive analyses of sediment budgets and coastal-flow dynamics are lacking. Hence, p rospective investigations lack the foundational information they BOX 5.4 Rosetta Promontory: Computational Modeling of Solutions to Fight Coastal Erosion The use of data, monitoring, and analysis nourishment volume of 300,000 cubic through computational modeling of hydro- meters) with those of a no-action scenario. dynamics and sediment processes is essential The analysis predicted that introducing in assessing solutions for combating coastal beach nourishment on the western headland erosion. An example of this praxis is the eval- is the optimal solution. It would help reduce uation of different solutions to stabilize the coastal erosion on the western side of the Rosetta promontory at the northern end of promontory while decreasing the accretion Egypt’s Nile delta coast. Morphological and inside the outlet of the river mouth; however, hydrodynamic studies and computational the eastern side of the promontory would modeling assessed the effects of different still be subject to coastal erosion (Masria, solutions (such as hard and soft measures as Abdelaziz, and Negm 2015). well as nearshore and beach nourishment) The modeling also assessed the impacts on the stability of the Rosetta promontory. of various soft and hard measures to arrive This is important in understanding which at an optimal solution for the stability of solutions can work most effectively while the Rosetta promontory. The impact of accordingly increasing the efficiency of the beach nourishment as a soft-defense solution planning and management process. in combination with different hard-defense Different nourishment interventions solutions were simulated using computational (and at different volumes) were assessed modeling. The resulting optimal solution is regarding their impacts on the stabilization to provide 300,000 cubic meters of beach of the Rosetta promontory. One set of nourishment on the western side and scenarios is for nearshore nourishment and nearshore nourishment on the east side and another set for beach nourishment. The a 360-meter jetty on the east side of the latter is the focus here as an example of the river mouth. The analysis predicted this use of Coastal Modeling System software to scenario to be the optimal solution because analyze morphological changes of potential it could combat coastal erosion threatening beach nourishment interventions. the stability of the seawalls, reduce accretion One solution set compares the results of inside the outlet of the river mouth, and different nourishment-placement scenarios decrease wave height at the outlet as well around the river mouth (involving a (Masria, Abdelaziz, and Negm 2015). 324 Blue Skies, Blue Seas require—a situation that emphasizes the need for such comprehensive analyses for the various shorelines of Middle East and North Africa economies as well as for specific hot spots of coastal erosion. Making data and information openly available and easily accessible for academic research and for development purposes is of paramount impor- tance to spur research on coastal erosion and its drivers. The complexity of this task requires a deep understanding of the various dynamics and characteristics of the Middle East and North Africa’s shores—including, as already mentioned, local geomorphological specificities, wave dynam- ics, and sediment transport, among others. Increasing research—both academic and applied (for example, for the establishment of ICZM schemes)—and strengthening the knowledge base about these issues is crucial for choosing appropriate policy responses and implementing a holistic ICZM scheme. These efforts should identify not only the most effective strategies to combat coastal erosion at specific hot spots but also the root causes of the erosion, requiring a broad set of different skills. This necessitates capacity building in a broad range of specialized fields such as coastal engineering, fluid mechanics, and urban planning. Furthermore, wide availability of data and easy access to these data—such as through web- sites showing the degree and evolution of coastal degradation and its causes—can increase public awareness about the issue of coastal erosion. This in turn will help build a broad base of support for some measures (such as strict zoning laws and potentially necessary plans for managed retreat) that may otherwise be met with some degree of discontent. Comprehensive Policies and Actions for Reducing Coastal Erosion ICZM, with its subcomponents, represents the overarching approach to mitigating coastal erosion effects and conducting broader coastal zone planning. It is an integrative approach that involves stakeholder participa- tion, along with assessments of both existing development and future proposals, to identify hazards that potentially lead to coastal erosion. This section discusses ICZM and experience with it in the Middle East and North Africa and elsewhere. The issues discussed below are (a) prospective (forward-looking) management by identifying parts of the coast for stra- tegic intervention (that is, zoning); and (b) reactive management and control measures, including hard and soft defenses as well as control policies such as managed retreat and dam regulations. ICZM continuously assesses changes in the coastal landscape, identi- fies their drivers, and uses this information to plan and manage coastal development. Identifying the sources of coastal erosion is a necessary Blue Seas: Fighting Coastal Erosion 325 prerequisite for planning and managing changes in the coastal land- scape, whether they are caused by human development or natural forces. ICZM begins with (a) identifying stakeholders whose actions may influence these processes (for example, port authorities, fishers, hotels, utility service providers, nature conservation specialists, cultural herit- age authorities, restaurants, technical specialists, and representatives of local communities); and (b) assessing the initial situation with the help of data collection, monitoring, and analysis. However, an ICZM scheme is premised on continuous integration of affected stakeholders and ongoing assessment of changes that certain management practices might have had on the coastal landscape. In the absence of a holistic planning process that incorporates the various involved parties, which ICZM represents, coastal erosion is likely to increase as development continues along the Middle East and North Africa’s coasts. A multisector approach is crucial for long-term optimal socio- economic outcomes and mutually beneficial trade-offs. ICZM is hence important in creating an integrated policy and technology intervention plan from the local to the regional level, and ideally the national or even international level, that optimizes the outcomes of combating coastal erosion and enabling coastal zones’ sustainability and economic oppor- tunities for all stakeholders. In the Middle East and North Africa, ICZM efforts regarding stake- holder inclusion started decades ago, with many lessons learned and areas for growth. Of the 22 countries bordering the Mediterranean Sea (9 of which are Middle East and North Africa economies), 10 have not yet begun to enforce the 2008 ICZM Protocol 10 from the Barcelona Convention, with Malta last to enter it into force in 2019 (UNEP 2020). Of these 10 countries, four are in the Middle East and North Africa: Algeria, Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia. Most of the published work on ICZM in countries sharing the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden coasts (Djibouti, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, and the Republic of Yemen) has focused only on capacity building and ecosystem-based management, including coral reef management—which helps combat coastal erosion but is not sufficient. ICZM stakeholder engagement in Egypt began in 1996, resulting in the establishment of a national ICZM committee (including stakehold- ers) as well as a department of coastal and marine-zone management including divisions for the Mediterranean and the Red Sea coasts (Abul- Azm, Abdel-Gelil, and Trumbic 2003). Additional recent initiatives in the region, such as Morocco’s ICZM scheme, are in the implementation stage (box 5.5). To tackle issues related to climate change and its impact on the coasts, Egypt has taken steps to enhance the resilience of coastal settlements and 326 Blue Skies, Blue Seas BOX 5.5 Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) in Morocco After ratifying the Barcelona Convention’s In the Rabat-Salé-Kénitra region of ICZM Protocol 10 in 2012, the Moroccan northern Morocco, an SRL was implemented Parliament approved a new Coastal Law and launched in early 2021 (World Bank (Law No. 81-12) in June 2015. The aim 2021). Set up with technical and analytical was to balance the protection and promo- support from the World Bank and the Italian tion of natural assets along the coast with government, the SRL represents the first economic, social, and cultural development. regional strategy arising from the NLP that Some of the explicit goals of Law No. 81–12 aims to reconcile environmental protection are “(i) Preserve the coast’s biological and and economic activity under one umbrella. ecological balance, natural and cultural Human activities will be coordinated under heritage, while combating coastal erosion; the guiding principles of a comprehensive (ii) prevent and reduce pollution and the ICZM scheme, part of the 2040 road map coast’s degradation, while rehabilitating for sustainable development of the coastline polluted and damaged areas; (iii) improve in the Rabat-Salé-Kenitra region. planning, by means of a national plan for the The SRL includes setting up a regional coast and compatible regional spatial plan- zoning plan and incorporates participation ning documents; […] (vi) advance research of the various stakeholders affected. Some and innovation promoting the coast and its planned investments aim to “green” the resources” (Trakadas 2020, 3; based on World activities scattered along the coast, Bank reports). With it, Morocco became one strengthening the resilience of the coastline. of the first countries in the region to have a An important part of these investments aims legal instrument dedicated for the integrated to address coastal erosion by embedding management of its coastal resources. safeguard measures in the development plans Currently, the government of Morocco of urban centers—including, for example, is implementing the mandate for regional the biological stabilization of dunes. Other coastal management plans (Schémas investments within the long-term coastline Régionaux d’Aménagement du Littoral, development scheme include construction or SRLs). With support from the World of wastewater treatment programs, Bank, the National Integrated Coastal rehabilitation of coastal wetlands, increasing Management Plan (NLP) was developed capabilities for recycling and recovery of incorporating some of the main principles plastic waste, and organizing and training of ICZM. fishers for sustainable fishing along the coast. infrastructure through stakeholder engagement and capacity building. Egypt’s Nile delta is considered one of the areas most vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, including the threat of coastal erosion. Coastal lakes are key ecosystems acting as protective zones for inland economic activities, but they are separated from the Mediterranean Sea Blue Seas: Fighting Coastal Erosion 327 only by dune systems that are already eroding and retreating. Rising sea levels and accompanying intensification in erosive forces threaten these ecosystems. Egyptian authorities together with the UN Development Programme (UNDP) established the project, “Enhancing Climate Change Adaptation in the North Coast and Nile Delta Regions in Egypt,” to efficiently man- age the risks posed by SLR and accompanying coastal erosion (box 5.6). It aims to integrate the management of these risks into the development of low-elevation coastal zones in the Nile delta that play an important role in the regional economy. The lessons learned in this project can be important for future projects trying to implement ICZM principles in the Middle East and North Africa. Prospective Management through Integrated Planning Under the ICZM umbrella, analysis can inform the identification of zones for different interventions, the formulation of plans with targeted interventions, and the development of other policies and institutional measures. Zoning is an effective approach that—using data, monitoring, and analysis for risk assessment and solution—identifies areas with a set of action plans for coastal development to address challenges (including coastal erosion) and opportunities in a comprehensive and sustainable way. As such, coastal zone planning is one of the most important corner- stones of an effective ICZM scheme. These plans usually designate s pecific interventions for different parts of the coast and divide the coastline into zones based on current usage and, perhaps more impor- tantly, possible future usage. Strategies will differ depending on natural characteristics as well as priorities expressed by different stakeholders. Where adaptive actions to address coastal erosion are part of an ICZM process, they generally involve three options: protection, accom- modation, and retreat (Few, Brown, and Tompkins 2007). Accordingly, in an ideal ICZM scheme for combating coastal erosion, the spatial, temporal, and stakeholder engagement aspects are all integrated and b alanced against one another to achieve a solution acceptable to all involved parties. Zoning regulation based on considerations of hazard areas and existing human structures are crucial in combating coastal erosion and mitigating its effects. Coasts have different hazard areas such as tidal inlets, swashes, and permanent overwash passes; these may have different effects on human structures based on characteristics like critical sediment-b alance zones, elevated sites, and low-density development zones (Rangel- Buitrago, Anfuso, and Williams 2015). Identifying such hazard areas and considering the claims of stakeholders is a crucial step in mitigating coastal erosion risks in planning and management. Suitable policies and 328 Blue Skies, Blue Seas BOX 5.6 Enhancing Climate Change Adaptation in the North Coast and Nile Delta Regions in Egypt The UN Intergovernmental Panel on • Development of 69 kilometers of sand-dune Climate Change (IPCC) has identified the dikes along five vulnerable hot spots within Nile delta as one of the world’s three areas the Nile delta. The dikes have been most vulnerable to climate change. It faces designed to mirror natural coastal fea- the threat of flooding of low-lying coastlines tures and/or sand dunes and will trans- from sea-level rise (SLR) and increased storm form the areas from high-risk to low-risk intensity and frequency. Salinization of land zones for flooding. They will be stabi- and water resources is expected to have sig- lized with a combination of rocks and nificant impacts on agriculture, fishing, and local vegetation species to encourage the availability of freshwater resources. dune growth by trapping and stabilizing To improve coastal zone management in blown sand. Importantly, the coastal pro- the context of SLR, the Arab Republic of tection measures will provide beneficial Egypt is working with the UN Development reuse of dredge material that would oth- Programme (UNDP) on the “Enhancing erwise be disposed of in the marine Climate Change Adaptation in the North environment. Coast and Nile Delta Regions in Egypt” • A climate change risk-informed integrated project. Supported by the Green Climate coastal zone management (ICZM) plan. The Fund and approved in 2017, the project plan will enable high-resolution diagnosis aims to reduce coastal flooding risks to of coastal threats, updated regulatory and Egypt’s northern coast due to SLR and institutional frameworks to manage SLR, extreme storms. The project will address and a coastal observation system for barriers including a lack of high-quality data ongoing data collection and analysis. to inform planning decisions; the absence of a suitable framework for integrated Altogether, the program will benefit nearly approaches to coastal adaptation; weak 800,000 people directly and up to 14 million institutional coordination to build coastline indirectly in the coastal governorates of resilience; issues with the disposal of dredge Beheira, Dakhalia, Kafr El Sheikh, and Port material that would otherwise be disposed Said. of in the marine environment; and low The project’s costs will total an estimated institutional capacity to anticipate and US$105 million. Key central government manage the expected impacts of SLR. implementing agencies in Egypt include To facilitate transformational change the Ministry of Environment, the Ministry by reducing coastal flooding threats and of Agriculture and Land Reclamation, and laying the framework for more sustainable the Egyptian Meteorological Authority. coastal development, the project has two Research institutes and universities are also key components: involved. Source: “Enhancing Climate Change Adaptation in the North Coast and Nile Delta Regions in Egypt,” Project FP053, Green Climate Fund, Incheon, Republic of Korea: https://www.greenclimate .fund/project/fp053. Blue Seas: Fighting Coastal Erosion 329 regulations, including zoning regulations and implementation measures, must also be identified. Principles of zoning for coastal erosion management have been adopted in large-scale projects. A recent example is the “Shoreline Management Sub-Plan for Odisha Coast,” published in July 2018 as part of India’s ICZM scheme (supported by the World Bank), which included a comprehensive and integrated analysis and implementation plan. Here, for the sake of combating coastal erosion, the coastlines were divided into nine different zones with accompanying policies. These zone-specific policies include combinations of abstaining from interven- tion (doing nothing), limited interventions, holding the line, managed realignment, and stabilizing sea walls (map 5.4). MAP 5.4 Shoreline Management Sub-Plan for Odisha Coast, India, 2018 Policy options Do nothing Do nothing / limited intervention Do nothing / hold the line Do nothing / managed realignment Do nothing / stabilize sea wall Limited intervention Hold the line Hold the line / limited intervention Hold the line / managed realignment N 0 4.25 8.5 17 25.5 34 KM Source: IPE Global 2018. © PD, ICZMP, Odisha. Used with the permission of PD, ICZMP, Odisha. Permission required for reuse. Note: Colors designate nine coastline zones corresponding to zone-specific policy categories, as follows: “Do nothing” applies to zones where natural shore evolution is preferred and no investment in coastal defense is recommended. Under “managed realignment,” natural shoreline changes are allowed, and investments may involve moving human settlements beyond the predicted shoreline change if they are threatened by erosion. “Limited interventions” involve working with natural coastal changes while reducing risk through measures to slow rather than stop coastal erosion, ranging from vegetative measures to appropriate location of dredging disposal at river mouths for beach nourishment. “Hold the line” options include soft-defense and hard-defense solutions (with a preference for the former in combination with vegetation) that aim to mitigate or stop erosion. It is assumed that managed realignment or retreat is not an option in the “hold the line” areas. KM =  kilometers; PCL = Permanent Coastal Location; SC = subcell. 330 Blue Skies, Blue Seas The ICZM scheme in India involves multiple states and is one of the most recent attempts to implement a holistic plan for large shorelines in regions severely stressed by the consequences of coastal erosion com- pounded by climate change. Its initial implementation in the states of Gujarat, Orissa, and West Bengal has been successful. Box 5.7 describes the overall ICZM scheme in more detail. BOX 5.7 India’s ICZM Project: A Comprehensive Approach for Combating Coastal Erosion The World Bank supported the govern- of likely impact from natural hazards— ment of India in building capacity for the to implement policies to protect coastal implementation of a comprehensive coastal assets and communities from the adverse management approach beginning in 2010. effects of disaster risks, including coastal The first component of the project included erosion. The example shown in map 5.4 mapping, delineation, and demarcation of involves identifying different policy hazard lines together with the delineation options for different parts of the shoreline of coastal-sediment cells along India’s main together with detailed recommendations coast. The other three components were on the most promising interventions. For (a) piloting of integrated coastal zone man- example, measures in intervention zones— agement (ICZM) approaches in the states that is, Permanent Coastal Location (PCL) of Gujarat, Orissa, and West Bengal; (b) 72 to PCL 77—included a combination building the capacity of agencies and insti- of mangrove afforestation, installing low- tutions at the state level; and (c) training slope revetment walls behind the shore, and technical and administrative staff in ICZM beach nourishment to reduce the pressure of planning and implementation. The project erosive forces and limit the risk of inundation included pilot investments to protect coastal during storm events (IPE Global 2018). assets while also protecting and enhancing The preparation of plans and pilot biod iversity at various sites (for example, activities in the states of Gujarat, Orissa, through mangrove-shelterbelt plantations) and West Bengal was highly participatory. as well as investments in better waste man- Nearly 72,000 local inhabitants and 2,500 agement and improvement in the liveli- representatives of stakeholder groups were hoods of coastal communities (for example, engaged, including government agencies, by promoting small-scale ecotourism). the private sector, fishing communities, In the course of the project, more than and other members of civil society as well 7,800 kilometers of India’s mainland coast as tourists (World Bank 2020a). Emphasis were mapped, delineated, and classified in was given to activities with the dual the coastal hazard line—that is, the line advantage of reducing erosive processes (continued) Blue Seas: Fighting Coastal Erosion 331 BOX 5.7 India’s ICZM Project: A Comprehensive Approach for Combating Coastal Erosion (Continued) while benefiting biodiversity. About 19,500 has contributed to the restoration of the hectares of mangroves were restored or beachfront (Technical Textiles 2020). planted, acting as coastal carbon sinks while Following the successes in developing protecting coastal assets and enriching local the ICZM plan for India, the World Bank biodiversity. in April 2020 approved a multiyear US$400 A project in Pentha, Odisha, million financing envelope to further demonstrated the merits of Geotube support coastal states in India in enhancing technology (further described in the the resilience of their coastal resources subsection on hard defenses below). It and populations. In the first phase, around involves 505 meters of geotextile tubes US$180 million was provided to the along the Pentha village coast that act Enhancing Coastal and Ocean Resource as a bund against tidal wave actions and Efficiency (ENCORE) project, which will mitigate erosive forces. It protects the cover eight coastal states (Andhra Pradesh, lives and livelihoods of more than 40,000 Goa, Gujarat, Karnataka, Kerala, Odisha, residents as well as around 250,000 tourists Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal) as well as who visit annually (World Bank 2020a). In three coastal union territories (Daman and addition to helping the village withstand Diu, Lakshadweep, and Puducherry) where the severe cyclones Phailin, Hud Hud, coastal resources are under significant and Fani that hit Odisha in 2019, it pressure (World Bank 2020b). Zoning plans as part of ICZM schemes have also become an impor- tant part of regional initiatives to efficiently address more-local coastal erosion issues. The ICZM plan for the beaches near Mundesley Beach in Norfolk, UK, is an example of such an intervention scheme. The region and its beaches are severely affected by coastal erosion, and local authori- ties have been planning and implementing erosion protections in various forms since the 1940s. In-depth studies have assessed the risks of coastal erosion on local municipalities (Dawson et al. 2009; Dickson, Walkden, and Hall 2007). The ICZM plan divides the coast into three types of zones, each with a dominant policy intervention: doing nothing, holding the line, or main- taining existing defenses (but once the defenses are projected to fail, then strategically retreating). It also assigns different priorities to different localities—for example, the protection of the Bacton gas terminal, com- pared with the longer-term protection of Mundesley itself. Furthermore, because of the national importance of the Bacton gas terminal, both the short-term (0–20 years) and medium-term (20–50 years) policies are to 332 Blue Skies, Blue Seas hold the line (because the terminal’s lifetime can reach up to 50 years) along with other interventions such as maintaining existing defense infra- structure and introducing a large volume of sediments starting in 2018 (Norfolk Vanguard Limited 2018). Even when there are no plans to protect, other strategies should be considered. For example, the ICZM zoning plan for Mundesley Beach considers no protective measures for the coast along the vil- lage of Happisburgh—that is, the plan is to do nothing. However, this does not necessarily imply that no strategies are under consideration to address the coast’s erosion and the risk that near-shore properties will be destroyed. Providing inhabitants of these properties with clearly defined adaptation strategies in advance reduces the pain of eventual relocation. A clear strategy for the abandonment of land that cannot be saved pro- vides the various stakeholders with a perspective that enables them to plan accordingly. Support measures for displaced persons include buyout schemes, subsidies for the relocation process, and purchasing or building new developments elsewhere that are safe. This was done in Happisburgh. Properties considered to be at immediate risk of erosion were purchased from the residents, and they were simultaneously granted an automatic planning right to replace their homes on the landward side of the vil- lage. Similarly, the cliff-top caravan park, which is an important source of income, was relocated farther inland (Kerby 2019). Reactive Management and Control Measures Stakeholders or policy makers can adapt existing structures to coastal ero- sion and manage coastal erosion in two ways: (a) defend the coast with “hard solutions” like seawalls or “soft solutions” such as beach nourish- ment, including natural and NBS such as mangrove restorations; or (b) implement control policies for development purposes or directly for sediment-balance purposes. These two options of defense and control policies are discussed in more detail below. Defense Solutions The range of possible measures to address coastal erosion and defend shorelines and settlements can be categorized as hard-defense solutions or soft-defense solutions (including NBS). All these measures aim to reduce or absorb the erosive forces of currents and waves but differ in their integration with the natural environment. The specific implementa- tion of one measure or another is highly case-specific and depends on local characteristics but should be coordinated, ideally in a comprehen- sive action plan designed under the tenets of ICZM. Blue Seas: Fighting Coastal Erosion 333 Hard defenses. Hard-defense solutions often are interventions including gray infrastructure that affect wave intensity and sediment transport. These include artificial headlands, groins, offshore structures such as breakwaters, and seawalls and revetment rock armors. They are often made of natural stones, concrete, or a combination, and their main objectives are to absorb and disperse wave intensity, influence sediment transport, or affect both wave intensity and sediment transport. Box 5.8 provides an overview of some of the most often used hard-defense structures. BOX 5.8 General Overview of Hard-Defense Options Hard-defense solutions include a variety of channels used by ships. Their interference options, some of which are placed foreshore with natural sediment transport can also (figure B5.8.1), and others are located on cause erosion in and along other coastal the shore (figure B5.8.2). The figures show areas downdrift. both the intended effects of such protection Breakwaters. Breakwaters (row 3, figure solutions and their unintended, possibly B5.8.1) can be built offshore and reduce the disadvantageous, effects. For some examples impact of waves on the coast to minimize of such solutions that were used in the Arab coastal erosion and inundation along the Republic of Egypt, see photo 5.4. coast locally to protect strategic points of the shoreline. When connected to the shore, Foreshore Structures they are also often called artificial headlands. Groins. Foreshore structures such as groins Temporary breakwaters or headlands can (row 1 of figure B5.8.1) are structures built be formed of gabions or sandbags, but those approximately perpendicular to the shore- will dissipate faster and are used for short- line outward to locally trap transported term protection.a These structures hinder sediments by shoreline drift. The objective the process of coastal erosion primarily is to stabilize the shoreline by decreasing by reducing the energy with which waves sediment transport away from certain sites arrive at the shore. Artificial headlands and encouraging buildup of beaches there; additionally encourage the buildup of there may again be adverse effects on nearby beaches by trapping sediment brought in areas. They can be built out of different by waves. However, this trapping interferes materials, including wood poles, timber, or with the natural flow of sediments and rocks. could cause increased erosion at other parts Jetties. Built in a similar fashion, jetties of the coast. (row 2 of figure B5.8.1) are typically In addition, geotextile tubes are installed for the protection of navigation increasingly used in civil and environmental (continued) 334 Blue Skies, Blue Seas BOX 5.8 General Overview of Hard-Defense Options ( Continued) FIGURE B5.8.1 Foreshore Hard-Defense Structures to Combat Coastal Erosion TOP VIEW SIDE/CROSS SECTION Erosion downdrift Groin Wooden poles Rip currents Accretion Timber Decrease in updrift longshore transport COASTLINE Rock Erosion Colonization nonnative downdrift species (transport routes) Scour JETTY holes CHANNEL Flow Flow slows Scour High velocities Navigation acceleration down and Accretion erosion channelat tip deects updrift BREAKWATER Erosion SUBMERGED Transmission Breaking Accretion Friction losses Erosion EMERGED Reection Transmission Dissipation Accretion and reection Transmission Friction losses Source: Adapted from Schoonees et al. 2019. Note: Text in blue designates intended (advantageous) effects of the structure, and text in red designates unintended (disadvantageous) effects. applications to combat the effects of coastal Onshore Structures erosion. They consist of geotextiles filled Other hard-defense solutions are more with soil, sand, or other material and present focused on protection behind the shore an alternative to traditional forms of coastal without directly interfering in natural structures, which may be expensive to build sediment transport alongshore. They are and maintain because of shortages of suitable typically placed onshore to dissipate wave building materials (Shin and Oh 2007). energy and reflect it back. (continued) BREAKWATERS JETTIES GROIN Blue Seas: Fighting Coastal Erosion 335 BOX 5.8 General Overview of Hard-Defense Options ( Continued) Seawalls. Seawalls (row 1 of figure Although they do not usually block natural B5.8.2) are vertical structures built along sediment transport along the shoreline, the coastline to protect the coast from the they block natural sediment replenishment impacts of coastal erosion such as exposure from the shore (and of course interfere with to waves and tides. Their goal is to protect the natural appearance of the shoreline backshore infrastructure by absorbing itself ). shock waves and hence hindering erosion of Construction of seawalls is typically the natural shoreline, helping to stabilize it. quite costly and is often considered only FIGURE B5.8.2 Onshore Hard-Defense Structures to Combat Coastal Erosion TOP VIEW CROSS SECTION Colonization Down-drift Barrier against Barrier to nonnative species erosion ooding and overtopping fauna and ora Passive erosion: retreating shoreline Active erosion Dissipation and reection Accretion Active erosion: Placement scour loss waves Beach width before seawall Down-drift erosion ColonizationErosion protection nonnative species Dissipation and reection Passive erosion Scour erosion Placement Accretion loss FORESHORE DIKE FORESHORE DIKE Barrier against Barrier to ooding and overtopping fauna and ora Dissipation and reection Shoreline erosion Scour erosion Placement loss Source: Adapted from Schoonees et al. 2019. Note: Text in blue designates intended (advantageous) effects of the structure, and text in red designates unintended (disadvantageous) effects. (continued) SEA DIKES REVETMENTS SEAWALLS COASTLINE 336 Blue Skies, Blue Seas BOX 5.8 General Overview of Hard-Defense Options ( Continued) for parts of the shoreline where the however, they are also employed on their assets to be protected have substantial own to protect the coastline. value. Furthermore, seawalls themselves Sea dikes. Built in a similar fashion, are subject to erosion and hence must sea dikes (row 3 of figure B5.8.2) are often be maintained regularly and strengthened considered a last line of flood defense and periodically. are also known as levees or embankments Revetments. Revetment rock armors, (Schoonees et al. 2019). They are often sometimes also called riprap seawalls composed of an earth-filled core with smooth (row 2 of figure B5.8.2), are often used in slopes on both seaward and landward sides combination with seawalls to reduce the and protect the low-lying hinterland thanks intensity of waves before they hit seawalls; to their raised ground level. a. “Artificial Headlands,” Resilience-Increasing Strategies for Coasts Toolkit (RISC-KIT) project of the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7) for Research and Technological Devel- opment, https://coastal-management.eu/artificial-headlands. Hard-defense solutions have been commonly used throughout the world, including the Middle East and North Africa, for coastal protec- tion against erosion and inundation. For instance, to combat negative effects of climate change such as SLR, Egypt has protected its shores from erosion by erecting barriers and maintaining and repairing its coastal defense infrastructure (SIS 2020). These hard-defense solutions (photo 5.4) include seawalls, breakwaters, groins, and revetment rock armor and have been widely used (EEAA 2016; Koraim, Heikal, and Abozaid 2011). Morocco and Tunisia have also been active in implementing hard structures to protect their coastal assets. Given the importance of the coasts to the Tunisian economy, especially through tourism, Tunisia’s Agency for Coastal Protection and Planning (APAL) has initiated a series of projects in cooperation with the German Development Bank (KfW) (Albrecht-Heider 2020). For example, submarine breakwaters were installed to rebuild the beach in Hamman Sousse, and groins were installed in Raf Raf, north of Tunis. The latter project was comple- mented by adding more than 500,000 cubic meters of sand—a practice called beach nourishment, a soft-defense solution further discussed below. Another measure was the installation of protective seawalls using natural rocks at the Kerkenna Islands near Sfax. In Morocco, breakwaters have been used heavily to protect several ports, such as North Africa’s largest port, Tanger-Med; a 3-kilometer breakwater development at the shore near Safi; and in the harbor of Rabat. Blue Seas: Fighting Coastal Erosion 337 PHOTO 5.4 Hard-Defense Solutions in the Nile Delta Zone in the Arab Republic of Egypt a. Mohamed Ali seawall, Abu Qir Bay b. Revetment, Rosetta Promontory c. Detached breakwaters, El Agami Beach d. Breakwater, El Arish Harbor e. Groins, El Mandara Beach f. Jetty, Ras El Bar Source: Iskander 2010. © Moheb M. Iskander. Used with the permission of Moheb M. Iskander. Further permission required for reuse. 338 Blue Skies, Blue Seas Groins have been built in several areas, including the port of Tan Tan and the beaches of Tangier, and seawalls have been used across the coun- try such as in Essaouira, Rabat, and Tangier. Hard-defense solutions such as groins and breakwaters interfere with sediment transport alongshore, sometimes by design. Hence, deep understanding of sediment transport and prevalent coastal-flow d ynamics becomes especially important and necessitates detailed analyses, ideally carried out on a large scale to consider transboundary changes. Different hard-defense solutions may have distinct influences on sediment trans- port, and hence their ability to prevent coastal erosion (box 5.9). BOX 5.9 Effects of Different Defense Structures in Soliman Beach, Tunisia The coastal zone of Soliman is located at erosion and accretion patterns for each of the Gulf of Tunis, southeast of the city of the transects located at different parts of the Tunis. This coastline, in particular, has coast (as marked in figure B5.9.1, panel a). seen strong rates of coastal erosion through As can be seen from the bar chart in time and has been well studied in the litera- figure B5.9.1 (panel b), transects 5–9 ture (Marzougui and Oueslati 2017; Saïdi, especially experienced severe erosion Souissi, and Zargouni 2012). Infrastructure over the years up to 2018. Following the projects in 1989 and 1990 included the erec- replacement of the breakwaters in 2018, tion of breakwaters, which were replaced transect 2 shows severe erosion that just by a coastal-groin system in 2018. This reflects the removal of the structures. What example reveals interesting patterns in the is interesting are the changes in transects coastal-sediment transport and erosion pat- 5–9, where there is an immediate and large terns at Soliman Beach. Photo B5.9.1 pro- reversal of the erosion that had occurred vides views of the breakwaters used before in the years before the introduction of the 2018 (panel a) and after their replacement groins. This demonstrates the development with groins in 2018 (panel b). and regeneration of the beach following Considering the area where the two the introduction of the groin system, breakwaters were replaced (at lower-left of which altered sediment transportation and Soliman Beach as depicted in photo B5.9.1), distribution from the upstream beach parts figure B5.9.1 reveals the shoreline changes getting trapped because of the perpendicular of this particular area in more detail. Figure design of the groins. B5.9.1, panel a, shows the coastline as of The structural groin also had a positive May 2017—that is, before the replacement effect farther downstream (that is, to the of the breakwaters—overlaid with the left of the breakwaters in photo B5.9.1, position of the shoreline in the past two panel a), leading to less coastal erosion, decades, indicated by the differently colored with sediments building up as well. These lines. Figure B5.9.1, panel b, then shows the processes show that different structures (continued) Blue Seas: Fighting Coastal Erosion 339 BOX 5.9 Effects of Different Defense Structures in Soliman Beach, Tunisia ( Continued) PHOTO B5.9.1 Soliman Beach, Tunisia, before and after Replacement of Breakwaters with Groins a. Beach with breakwaters (1990–2018) b. Beach with groin system (2018–present) Source: © 2020 CNES/Airbus, courtesy of Google Earth. (continued) 340 Blue Skies, Blue Seas BOX 5.9 Effects of Different Defense Structures in Soliman Beach, Tunisia ( Continued) FIGURE B5.9.1 Changes in Erosion at Soliman Beach, Tunisia, after Replacing Breakwaters with Groins a. Beach in May 2017, showing transects and shorelines, 2000–20a Transect Shoreline intersects 2000 1 2001 2 2002 3 2003 4 2004 5 2005 6 2006 7 2007 8 2008 9 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 b. Extent of shoreline change, by transect, 2000–20b 5 0 –5 –10 –15 –20 –25 –30 –35 –40 –45 –50 2001 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Transect: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Source: NOC 2020. Panel a: © World Bank. Further permission required for reuse. a. The photo in panel a shows Soliman Beach as of May 2017, before construction of the groins. b. The bar chart shows cumulative erosion or accretion at different transects in different years relative to the baseline year (2000). may have quite dissimilar impacts on the possible effects of different structures and to processes affecting the coast and beaches. select the ones that have the desired effects Careful planning is necessary to incorporate once implemented. Source: Cooperative analysis for this volume with the National Oceanography Centre (NOC) in the UK using high-resolution satellite photos of Soliman Beach in Tunisia. Transect distance from baseline (= 2000), meters Blue Seas: Fighting Coastal Erosion 341 Soft defenses. Soft-defense solutions have been used in recent decades. Soft solutions include beach nourishment, wind fences, sand dunes, artificial reefs, and other NBS: • Beach nourishment is the addition of sediments, sand, or both along the shoreline to maintain beach land width and act as a soft-defense mechanism by dissipating wave energy before it reaches the coastline. This aids shoreline stabilization, improves beach quality, and improves storm protection. Beach nourishment can be costly, affect marine e cosystems, and require a constant supply of new sand. • Wind fences are structures that act as barriers against winds to accumu- late sand and sediments carried by the winds on the downwind side of the fence as an intervention for shoreline stabilization (Khalil 2008). • Sand dunes are mounds of sand built or maintained to protect the coast from coastal erosion impacts such as exposure to waves and tides. Dunes act as backshore protection, protect the coast from waves, and can be vegetated so they are not easily eroded. • Artificial reefs are objects made of environmentally friendly materials placed on the seabed offshore to help retain sediments and dissipate waves while having other environmental impacts such as creating a thriving marine ecosystem (shoreline stabilization). • Nature-based solutions (NBS) are interventions aimed at safeguarding, sustainably managing, and rehabilitating the ecosystems in address- ing societal challenges while benefiting human well-being and biodiversity. Beach-nourishment projects have been implemented in the Middle East and North Africa and received more attention recently. For example, between 1986 and 1995, five beaches near Alexandria, Egypt, were restored this way. The beaches of El Asafra, El Mandara, El Shatby, Miyami, and Stanley were (re)nourished using sand from the desert near Cairo, with all of these projects meeting or exceeding the expectations for beach restoration (Fanos, Khafagy, and Dean 1995). In an assessment for further protections, beach nourishment under the tenets of an ICZM scheme was considered the most cost-effective measure to combat beach retreat (El-Raey 2009). In 2014, the United Arab Emirates approved a large-scale project to restore the three Umm Suqeim beaches after they faced severe erosion due to offshore developments. For Umm Suqeim I Beach, installation of five groins and beach nourishment were undertaken, while for the other two, only beach nourishment was used. The works included a total of around 500,000 cubic meters of sand, and around US$9.5 million was 342 Blue Skies, Blue Seas approved to implement the measure in multiple phases (Construction Week 2014; Khaleej Times 2017), which also included a nine-month clos- ing of the beaches (Khaleej Times 2015). Innovative approaches for the effective deployment of beach nourishment practices have been used extensively—for example, in the Netherlands (box 5.10). BOX 5.10 Building with Nature: Approaches for Beach Replenishment from the Netherlands In the Netherlands, an innovative nourish- over the long term it will fully assimilate ment process was adopted, pumping sand with the protected coast. The Sand Motor and gravel onto the beach during high project is an example not only of beach tide and allowing the coastal process to nourishment but also of an integrated spread the sand, resulting in the restora- coastal management approach that uses a tion of the dunes and beach (de Schipper soft-defense solution, data, monitoring, and et al. 2016). The project, called “Sand analysis along with nature processes and Motor,” is located along the narrow Dutch recreation for a comprehensive solution coast between The Hague and Hook of (van der Meulen and van der Valk 2019). Holland and was constructed in 2011.a The The Spanjaards Dune is part of larger project contains approximately 20 million nourishment efforts along the coast cubic meters of pumped sand that, in its (including the Sand Motor project and original form, was placed as a hook-shaped others) to reduce coastal erosion and ensure peninsula with a length of 2 kilometers coastal safety (van der Meulen et al. 2015). alongshore and extending 1 kilometer into It was constructed in 2008–09 with an the sea. A series of assessments have found original size of around 35 hectares in front it to be successful in feeding the adjacent of the coast to be protected—the Delfland coastlines with sediments and aiding beach coast near The Hague—as a compensation buildup (de Schipper et al. 2016; Luijendijk for losses of the original dune habitat et al. 2017; van der Meulen and van der (van der Meulen and van der Valk 2019). Valk 2019). Nourishment through the Spanjaards Dune The Sand Motor acts as a measure of project required the dredging of 6.5 million defense to avoid the erosion of the coast that cubic meters of sand that was piped to shore protects the nearby lands lying below sea from 19 kilometers offshore. Similar to the level by spreading the sand in a natural way Sand Motor, natural forces are left free to with wind, waves, and currents along the shape the area further and reinforce dune coast. As a result, this peninsula gradually habitats that need compensation (van der changes its shape, decreasing in size, and Meulen and van der Valk 2019). a. For more information, see the Sand Motor website: https://dezandmotor.nl/. Blue Seas: Fighting Coastal Erosion 343 Other soft defenses include the installation of wind fences and arti- ficial reefs. APAL has used several soft measures to combat coastal erosion, including wind fences to trap sand and rebuild dunes. APAL ini- tiated a number of actions, implementing them in a participatory manner involving the local population, while taking into account the ecological, economic, and archeological aspects. These initiatives aim to protect the beaches, with the first three phases of the project costing about €38 million (of which 75 percent was financed with grants and loans from the German government). These initiatives included a series of different structures (for example, submarine breakwaters) as well as installation of over 4 kilometers of pinewood fences to stabilize dunes, which are natural protective barriers (Albrecht-Heider 2020). These protection measures help to withstand erosive forces like waves while having rather few side effects. A pioneering project in Morocco, although not specifically aiming for protection from coastal erosion, installed artificial reefs in Martil, in the north of the country, in 2012. The project was successful in restoring fish stocks—the main objective—but stabilization of the Martil artificial reef community is a slow and long-term process (El Mdari et al. 2018). NBS through vegetation and natural coral reef restoration have been increasingly used to retain sediments and restore biodiversity and blue carbon. According to a planning framework by Belize’s Coastal Zone Management Authority and Institute, “Terrestrial protected areas pro- vide erosion and flood control, sediment retention, and carbon storage. Marine protected areas which include coral reef, sea grass and mangrove offer a variety of coastal and marine services such as protection against erosion, reduction of damages from storm surge, and protection from sea-level rise” (CZMAI 2016). The use of vegetation—such as through the creation, conservation (or both) of wetlands and mangrove zones— includes rehabilitation or plantation of seawater vegetation along the shores to retain sediments and to act as a natural defense line by dis- sipating wave energy. This option traps sediments and prevents coastal erosion while also enhancing biodiversity by restoring habitats for land- based creatures and safe havens for fish in the case of mangroves. Restoring biodiversity and supporting revegetation with native species is an important aspect of NBS. In the Middle East and North Africa, such efforts have included the Corso Commune coastal dune ecosystem rehabilitation project, east of Algiers in Algeria. In the course of it, the Ecological Association of Boumerdes, with cooperation of local public authorities, took steps to stabilize dunes with the aid of vegetation. The project also included action to support rehabilitation of coastal sites against human action by implementing actions for cleaning and develop- ment of these spaces (Canals Ventín and Lázaro Marín 2019). 344 Blue Skies, Blue Seas In the Red Sea and the RSA, mangroves and coral reefs provide pro- tection and contribute to combating coastal erosion in a cost-effective way. When comparing the costs of hard-defense interventions such as tropical breakwater projects with the costs of NBS such as coral reef restoration projects, the cost-effectiveness of such NBS becomes clear. However, mangroves and coral reefs have been under stress in the Middle East and North Africa from climatic changes as well as human interventions. For example, along the coasts of Saudi Arabia, mangrove areas decreased by 75 percent between 1985 and 2013, and reclama- tion, dredging, and poor fishing practices destroyed coral reefs (MEWA 2017). It is hence important to afforest mangrove forests and restore coral reefs where possible. Recently, Egypt announced an ambitious project to plant mangroves in the Red Sea Governorate. The project, announced in 2020, represents one of the country’s largest environmental projects and is an effort to combat the effects of coastal erosion and overfishing. More than 200 hectares of land has been set aside for four plant nurseries in the Safaga, Hamata, and Shalateen areas in the Red Sea Governorate and the Nabaq Nature Reserve in South Sinai. Besides mitigating coastal erosion and reviving dwindling fish stocks, the project aims to restore bee popula- tions that feed from mangroves and protect coral reefs (Nile FM 2020). According to officials, the restoration of coral reefs will also help to turn the Red Sea coast into one of the most important destinations for envi- ronmentally conscious tourism while protecting beaches from erosion resulting from waves and rising sea levels. Hybrid defenses. Hybrid defense solutions have been used by combining hard-defense solutions with soft-defense solutions including NBS. These mixtures of solutions allow for a combination of the posi- tive aspects of both solutions—for instance, using gray infrastructure for wave-energy dissipation while also creating natural habitats for species at or near the coasts, such as in mangrove woods and dune vegetation. These combinations also allow for the smoother integration of solutions in landscape planning and enhance policy coherence (Cohen-Shacham et al. 2019). Hybrid solutions can involve several elements such as submerged breakwaters, natural defenses, and dune reinforcement and stabilization through vegetation. (See, for example, figure 3 in Antunes do Carmo [forthcoming].) Typically, not all of the depicted solutions are used together but rather as a combination of two or three solutions. Hybrid schemes have been used internationally and are suitable for Middle East and North Africa economies. NBS interventions were inte- grated into the coastal-defense strategy of Medmerry’s coastal-defense management in southeast England (Pearce, Khan, and Lewis 2012). This strategy incorporated ecological engineering at that site, and by Blue Seas: Fighting Coastal Erosion 345 connecting with similar measures aimed at erosion reduction, those NBS interventions had a large impact in reducing coastal erosion along the coast. In the Middle East and North Africa, Egyptian authorities considered such a hybrid solution for the development of 69 kilometers of sand dunes that are stabilized by a combination of rocks and local vegetation to enhance resilience to climate change in the Nile delta (as discussed in box 5.6). This combination is set to trap blown sand and encourage dune growth. Given that the shores of the Middle East and North Africa region are habitats for some of the most suitable vegetation for coastal protection (for example, mangroves in the Red Sea), a combination of gray and green measures is a suitable option to consider for coastal pro- tection in the region. Control Policies Control policies to complement the discussed defensive interventions and to regulate drivers of coastal erosion are important for sustainably manag- ing the coasts. Such control policies aim to mitigate some of the coastal- erosion impacts of new and existing development, such as dams and coastal infrastructure (ports, jetties, and so forth). Control policies may also target activities that reduce sediment budgets—activities such as sand mining, which is illegal in most countries but unfortunately still practiced in some, such as Morocco. The construction and development of dams in relevant zones must be regulated to take into account the influence of dams on the natural transport of sediment to the coast. Rivers frequently get dammed for water supplies, flood control, and hydroelectric power throughout the world, with notable projects in the Middle East and North Africa. North African countries like Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia, and some Middle East countries like the Islamic Republic of Iran operate a large number of dams. For example, Morocco has 140 large dams with an overall capacity of about 17,600 million cubic meters and more than 100 small dam and hill reservoirs (Loudyi et al. 2018). In the Islamic Republic of Iran, over 600 dam projects have been built since 1979 (Shahi 2019). The Nile Dam between Egypt and Ethiopia, one of the largest projects in recent decades, has led to tensions between countries in the region (Mutahi 2020). Rivers are important sources of sediments for coastal zones, and modifying them can have distinct consequences on their flows to the coasts (Syvitski et al. 2005). This interception of sediment can then significantly affect erosion processes, as was documented for the Aswan Dam (Masria, Nadaoka, Negm, and Iskander 2015) and the Sebou and Ouerrha Rivers in Morocco (Haida, Snoussi, and Probst 2004). For the Mediterranean Maghreb basin, dams are estimated to reduce sediment 346 Blue Skies, Blue Seas transport by more than 60 p ercent, with the highest retention rates in Tunisia (72 percent), Algeria (63 p ercent), and Morocco (55 percent) (Sadaoui et al. 2018). Hence, it is crucial that future projects involving dams be reviewed in this respect. Suitable regulations that address this issue have to be formulated, and ESIAs and EIAs of new projects should include this dimension. Existing dams could benefit from retrofitting to allow for sediment flow and less accumulation of sediments upstream of the dam. Various methodologies exist to route sediment around dams, through dams, or to relocate sediment trapped in the reservoir to allow for sediment feed downstream and to sustain reservoir capacity (Kondolf et al. 2014). Some techniques to divert sediment around or through a dam are to (a) use off-channel reservoir storage and bypass the dam through a tunnel or a channel (depending on the geometry of the river and steepness for optimizing the design and cost of such intervention); (b) apply sediment sluicing, which is rapidly discharging sediments during periods of high inflows to the reservoir, allowing fine sediments to flow from top of the dam; (c) apply drawdown flushing (the opposite of sediment sluic- ing, since the gates are at a low level), allowing the resuspension and transportation of sediments downstream. For a detailed review of these options, see Kondolf et al. (2014). Regulating coastal sand mining and effectively enforcing laws and regulations that ban sand mining in critical zones for sediment balance is crucial in the Middle East and North Africa. As noted earlier, illegal sand mining at the region’s coasts is widespread and has become a serious problem. “Sand mafias” have been established that smuggle sand outside the country, making it a transboundary issue as well as a national and local one (UNEP 2019). Hence, putting an effective ban on illegal sand mining is essential. However, such a ban must go hand-in-hand with a credible enforcement mechanism to ensure compliance. Furthermore, in addition to banning sand mining per se, regulating the use of sand for building purposes and putting in force a strict supervisory mecha- nism is crucial. For example, in Morocco, half the sand used to build hotels, roads, and other tourism-related infrastructure comes from illegal sources (UNEP 2019). Hence, making a declaration of sources obliga- tory and introducing hefty fines for noncompliance may be useful in cutting the demand for illegally mined sand. It is important to start combating coastal erosion by unifying stake- holders’ efforts through an ICZM plan that will not only help combat coastal erosion but also help resolve other challenges such as pollution and biodiversity. All the policies mentioned here are important to con- trol and support effective interventions under the umbrella of ICZM. However, to combat coastal erosion effectively and practically, it is Blue Seas: Fighting Coastal Erosion 347 critical to start by bringing stakeholders together and putting in place data and monitoring plans. Middle East and North Africa economies will benefit greatly from ICZM plans on both the national and subregional levels, as well as on the basin level with the other countries that share the basin. NOTES 1. Parts of the next two sections —“How Eroded Are the Coasts?” and “The Economic Impacts of Eroded Coasts”—are adapted from Heger and Vashold (2021) and use similar language. 2. Red Sea, Mediterranean, and other sea area data are from WorldAtlas, https://www.worldatlas.com/. 3. The various sources are either online property portals (such as https://www .avito.ma/, https://www.mitula.ma/, http://www.homeintunisia.com/, and https://www.opensooq.com/ar with various country domains) or official sources where available (mainly in Morocco). 4. It would be preferable to further distinguish between agricultural land and building plots in the case of rural land. However, in addition to the chal- lenges posed by price-data constraints, determining the relative shares of these types of land in total rural coastal areas proved extremely difficult. Although the ESA’s land-use dataset distinguishes between already built-up areas and ones that are explicitly used for agricultural purposes, it is not pos- sible to determine whether a certain plot of bare land is dedicated for use as a building plot. Given these difficulties and the often unclear rules for land classification in these countries, the report refrains from drawing such dis- tinctions and uses a composite price for rural areas. 5. For more information on the Global Land Cover database, see the ESA’s Climate Change Initiative website: http://www.esa-landcover-cci.org/. 6. The share of urban areas is calculated for the whole coastline and not just for the parts subject to erosion. The limited information on land prices did not allow for such a differentiation. 7. These estimates do not take infrastructure costs explicitly into account. 8. Ghermandi and Nunes (2013) provide estimates for the value of recreational services for near-shore locations on a global scale and show that these vary with accessibility, development, and tourist amenities such as the beaches or coral reefs. 9. The authors also calculate the willingness to pay of Djerba residents and found similar values per capita. Because the number of residents (around 30,000) is tiny relative to the number tourists visiting Djerba (more than 1 million per year), tourists’ contributions make up the lion’s share of overall contributions. 10. The authors infer these highly detrimental effects on the local tourism sector by means of benefit transfers of willingness-to-pay values from another source and assume complete disappearance of the beaches, a process that varies for the different beaches under scrutiny and may take several decades. 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ECO-AUDIT Environmental Benefits Statement The World Bank Group is committed to reducing its environmental foot- print. In support of this commitment, we leverage electronic publishing options and print-on-demand technology, which is located in regional hubs worldwide. Together, these initiatives enable print runs to be lowered and shipping distances decreased, resulting in reduced paper consumption, chemical use, greenhouse gas emissions, and waste. We follow the recommended standards for paper use set by the Green Press Initiative. The majority of our books are printed on Forest Stewardship Council (FSC)–certified paper, with nearly all containing 50–100 percent recycled content. The recycled fiber in our book paper is either unbleached or bleached using totally chlorine-free (TCF), processed chlorine–free (PCF), or enhanced elemental c hlorine–free (EECF) processes. More information about the Bank’s environmental philosophy can be found at http://www.worldbank.org/corporateresponsibility. While economic and social indicators in many Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries have improved over the past three decades, the region’s blue natural assets—clean air, healthy seas, and coastlines—have degraded virtually everywhere. Air pollution levels in the region’s cities are among the highest in the world. Per capita marine plastic pollution is among the highest in the world; coastal erosion rates are the second fastest in the world. These combined challenges threaten local communities, livelihoods, and economies. In fact, the economic cost of MENA’s deteriorating skies and seas is estimated at more than 3 percent of GDP per year. Blue Skies, Blue Seas: Air Pollution, Marine Plastics, and Coastal Erosion in the Middle East and North Africa reviews integrated solutions that the authors identify as the “four I’s”: • Inform stakeholders about the sources of these challenges. • Provide incentives that improve environmental outcomes for the public and the private sector. • Strengthen institutions to lower air and plastic pollution and to mitigate uncontrolled development and erosion of coastlines. • Invest in abatement options and promote sustainable solutions. Restoring MENA’s blue skies and seas will benefit the health, livelihoods, and incomes of residents. There will inevitably be trade-offs, but choosing a path of green growth will create jobs, diversify economies, and make the region a better place for current and future generations. The actions of policy makers today will shape the trajectory of economies and communities for decades to come. ISBN 978-1-4648-1812-7 SKU 211812