Abstract:
The likely effects of climate change on geographic distributions of African medicinal plants have not seen detailed
analysis. We investigated likely effects of future climate change processes on suitable geographic areas for
an important medicinal plant resource, Alstonia boonei De Wild. We characterized the potential geographic
distribution of the species by means of ecological niche models based on primary biodiversity data and interpolated
climate data from the WorldClim archive. Results indicated that suitability for the species was lower at
the northern and southern extremes of the species’ known geographic distribution, whereas broader areas in the
eastern half of the species’ distribution were identified as suitable. Future potential geographic distributions
were similar to present-day distributional patterns, with modest increases in suitability, which translated into
only subtle likely range shifts, with slight expansions of suitability for the species in all directions. As such, in the
face of changing climate, the geographic distribution of Alstonia boonei is likely to remain largely stable under
present and future climates. This study serves as an example of how ecological niche modeling can be used to
evaluate probable effects of future climate change on invaluable natural medicinal resources, implications for
healthcare, livelihoods, and conservation practice.