Modelling the Transmission Dynamics of Tuberculosis in the Ashanti Region of Ghana

Show simple item record Mettle, F.O. Affi, P.O. Twumasi, C. 2020-06-26T10:56:23Z 2020-06-26T10:56:23Z 2020-03-31
dc.description Research Article en_US
dc.description.abstract Mathematical models can aid in elucidating the spread of infectious disease dynamics within a given population over time. In an attempt to model tuberculosis (TB) dynamics among high-burden districts in the Ashanti Region of Ghana, the SEIR epidemic model with demography was employed within both deterministic and stochastic settings for comparison purposes. /e deterministic model showed success in modelling TB infection in the region to the transmission dynamics of the stochastic SEIR model over time. It predicted tuberculosis dying out in ten of twelve high-burden districts in the Ashanti Region, but an outbreak in Obuasi municipal and Amansie West district. /e effect of introducing treatment at the incubation stage of TB transmission was also investigated, and it was discovered that treatment introduced at the exposed stage decreased the spread of TB. Branching process approximation was used to derive explicit forms of relevant epidemiological quantities of the deterministic SEIR model for stability analysis of equilibrium points. Numerical simulations were performed to validate the overall infection rate, basic reproductive number, herd immunity threshold, and Malthusian parameter based on bootstrapping, jackknife, and Latin Hypercube sampling schemes. It was recommended that the Ghana Health Service should find a good mechanism to detect TB in the early stages of infection in the region. Public health attention must also be given to districts with a potentially higher risk of experiencing endemic TB even though the estimates of the overall epidemic thresholds from our SEIR model suggested that the Ashanti Region as a whole had herd immunity against TB infection. en_US
dc.language.iso en en_US
dc.publisher Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases en_US
dc.relation.ispartofseries 2020;
dc.subject equilibrium points en_US
dc.subject TB infection en_US
dc.subject TB transmission en_US
dc.subject Numerical simulations en_US
dc.title Modelling the Transmission Dynamics of Tuberculosis in the Ashanti Region of Ghana en_US
dc.type Article en_US

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