A Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology with bootstrap percentile estimates for predicting presidential election results in Ghana.

Show simple item record

dc.contributor.author Nortey, E.N.
dc.contributor.author Ansah-Narh, T.
dc.contributor.author Asah-Asante, R.
dc.contributor.author Minkah, R.
dc.date.accessioned 2018-09-03T16:38:31Z
dc.date.available 2018-09-03T16:38:31Z
dc.date.issued 2015-09
dc.identifier.other doi: 10.1186/s40064-015-1310-2
dc.identifier.uri http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh/handle/123456789/23917
dc.description.abstract Although, there exists numerous literature on the procedure for forecasting or predicting election results, in Ghana only opinion poll strategies have been used. To fill this gap, the paper develops Markov chain models for forecasting the 2016 presidential election results at the Regional, Zonal (i.e. Savannah, Coastal and Forest) and the National levels using past presidential election results of Ghana. The methodology develops a model for prediction of the 2016 presidential election results in Ghana using the Markov chains Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology with bootstrap estimates. The results were that the ruling NDC may marginally win the 2016 Presidential Elections but would not obtain the more than 50 % votes to be declared an outright winner. This means that there is going to be a run-off election between the two giant political parties: the ruling NDC and the major opposition party, NPP. The prediction for the 2016 Presidential run-off election between the NDC and the NPP was rather in favour of the major opposition party, the NPP with a little over the 50 % votes obtained. en_US
dc.language.iso en en_US
dc.publisher Springerplus en_US
dc.subject Elections en_US
dc.subject Forecasting en_US
dc.subject Ghana en_US
dc.subject Markov chains en_US
dc.subject NDC en_US
dc.subject NPP en_US
dc.subject Stochastic matrix en_US
dc.title A Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology with bootstrap percentile estimates for predicting presidential election results in Ghana. en_US
dc.type Article en_US


Files in this item

Files Size Format View

There are no files associated with this item.

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record

Search UGSpace


Browse

My Account